Wednesday 4/27/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Thistledown Picks - Wednesday, April 27, 2022

Race 1: 1-5-4-2
Race 2: 1/1A-5-7-6
Race 3: 4-3-2-1
Race 4: 1/1A-2-7-6
Race 5: 5-1/1A-6-3
Race 6: 5-6-2-1
Race 7: 3-6-1-5
Race 8: 11-1-6-9
**Most Likely Winner: Storm Risk (Race 7)**
**Best Value: Happy As You Go (Race 5)**

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Keeneland - Race #4
Picks Notes
#4 Trouble Making She's a 16-start maiden, so this is not an super enthusiastic endorsement, but she figures to offer a decent enough price while getting back to the grass where she ran really well earlier in her career. Why not?
#1 Chardy Party She'll go first out for an always tough Ward barn, but the rail draw gives at least a little bit of pause unless she catches a flyer from the gate. Obviously capable here.
#7 Georgetown Road She's bred to have some versatility, so the move to the grass is interesting enough for a capable team. That said, I worry she's overbet with somewhat modest form to her credit so far.
Race Summary Willing to take a shot here with Trouble Making, who has landed eight underneath shares in her 16 lifetime starts, and she owns some pretty sharp back turf sprint efforts. Hoping she bounces back on her favorite footing.

Keeneland - Race #6
Picks Notes
#5 Skyro He has turned in a couple nice efforts to kick off his campaign this season, and he should be in line for another perfect trip while pressing the pace. First over and home?
#10 Monition He can be tighter here with the Fair Grounds comeback under his belt, and he ran the best race of his life in his only try over the local footing. There is some quality on his damside, and he should be in the mix again early here.
#9 Floriform She has been a progressive type throughout her career, and she stepped up with a really good third-place effort in Grade III company last time out. Something similar keeps her in the frame with these today.
Race Summary Skyro has positional pace that should allow him to get first jump, and I'm hoping he's something like the second choice on the board today. I'll try to get Monition in the gimmicks with the other logical players here.

Keeneland - Race #8
Picks Notes
#10 Diva Ready A couple of the logical players want to be right up top, and I'm hoping this filly will settle a bit off the pace and collar the speed with a late run. Mid-range price here?
#4 Spare Cash She has been better on the synthetic at Turfway in recent starts, and she'll certainly need more than she showed in her first two turf tries. That said, the recent form is there, and she has some pace to use.
#5 American Pyramid A bit worried that she and Spare Cash will hook up a bit too early as logical, forward players, but she has some upside on the move to the turf and has already shown a bit of quality.
Race Summary Diva Ready goes first out in a race where Spare Cash and American Pyramid seem most likely, but 'Ready runs for a capable team and might be set to roll at first asking.

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Miami Valley - Race #1
Picks Notes
#6 KHAN BLUE CHIP Dueled to stretch in latest, memory can serve classy 12yo well.
#2 FOX VALLEY DISCO Gave way behind the favorites in :56.4 back half.
#4 HANDSOFFMYCHIPS First- and second-over lately, average 71 speed fig in last three fits.
Race Summary Khan Blue Chip is in good enough form to reach $250k in earnings in this spot. His rivals are a combined 53/1-2-6 this year. Play a 6/2,4/ALL trifecta and a 2-6 exacta box.

Northfield Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#7 CELLULAR In range until stretch, can use speed better in this spot, good value play.
#1 BLACK HAWK DOWN Couldn’t hold lead through 1:00.2 back half, might tonight.
#5 BABY YODA Upstaged series of in-money finishes with first win this year.
Race Summary Cellular, 3-deep in the outer flow after starting from the second tier, was in range of the odds-on winner on the final turn but trotted evenly to the wire. He offers good value, especially if he gets position early from post 7. Bet to win and place.

Rosecroft - Race #8
Picks Notes
#4 HOT TO CHANNEL Slowed by pace when third at this level, better post.
#3 WHATEVERYOULIKE Was 2-for-49 since 2021 until easy win last week.
#5 FINAL ESCAPE Changed tactics, tired at odds-on in slower division of split race.
Race Summary Hot To Channel rallied from sixth after the pace slowed in the middle half and finished third. She needs some pace help to catch the same winning rival she meets again. Play 4-3 and 4-5 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Keeneland Tip Sheet - April 27

April 27, 2022

KEENELAND TIPS - WEDNESDAY, APRIL 27, 2022
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 63% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $10,000 CLAIMING
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:00 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 3 Kittys Promise T Canuto
PLACE 4-1 2 Especially You R Mojica Jr.
SHOW 2-1 1 Ancient Brown A Beschizza
WILD CARD 5-2 5 Princess Renee M Murrill
ALTERNATE 1 8-1 4 Smokin Hot Bobbie R Bejarano
ALTERNATE 2 20-1 6 Bow Maker J Padron-Barcenas

* EXACTA: 3-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX

RACE #2 $110,000 ALLOWANCE
1 1/2 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:32 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 9-5 6 Bella Conchita B J Hernandez Jr.
PLACE 7-5 5 Federalist Papers I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW 5-1 3 Good Measure T Gaffalione
WILD CARD 7-2 1 Met in Miami J Rosario
ALTERNATE 1 20-1 2 Noble Enterprise V Cheminaud
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 4 Three Tipsy Chix J R Leparoux

* EXACTA: 6-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX

RACE #3 $20,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE
1 1/16 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:04 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 2-1 3 Fortunes Fool J Rosado
PLACE 3-1 2 Bless the Kitten A Jimenez
SHOW 6-1 5 Hemp Heaven A Achard
WILD CARD 5-2 1 My Bariley R Bejarano
ALTERNATE 1 3-1 4 Ballinonabudjet A Beschizza

* EXACTA: 3-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX

RACE #4 $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:36 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 GEORGETOWN ROAD

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-2 7 Georgetown Road T Gaffalione
PLACE 15-1 4 Trouble Making A Beschizza
SHOW 3-1 1 Chardy Party I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD 9-2 11 Doozy Batz J R Velazquez
ALTERNATE 1 10-1 9 Never At All J McKee
ALTERNATE 2 6-1 5 Xtreme Gem J Graham

* EXACTA: 7-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/7 BOX, 1/4/11 BOX

RACE #5 $100,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:08 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 9-2 9 Coco Puff I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE 8-1 11 West Love C J Lanerie
SHOW 4-1 1 American Heights G Corrales
WILD CARD 9-2 6 Midnightmakessense L Saez
ALTERNATE 1 5-1 2 Nosilverspoonshere F Prat
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 8 Darene T Gaffalione

* EXACTA: 9-11 BOX, 11-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/9/11 BOX, 1/6/11 BOX

RACE #6 $120,000 ALLOWANCE
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:40 PM ET
BEST BET: #9 FLORIFORM

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 9 Floriform J Rosario
PLACE 12-1 10 Monition B J Hernandez Jr.
SHOW 7-2 1 Cellist J R Leparoux
WILD CARD 6-1 11 Point Me By L Saez
ALTERNATE 1 4-1 5 Skyro T Gaffalione
ALTERNATE 2 15-1 3 Absam I Ortiz Jr.

* EXACTA: 9-10 BOX, 10-1 BOX, 1-11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/9/10 BOX, 1/10/11 BOX

RACE #7 $50,000 CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:12 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 2 Expensive Cut A Beckman
PLACE 9-5 3 Down Cold T Gaffalione
SHOW 3-1 5 Silent Disco R Gutierrez
WILD CARD 4-1 1 Bureau J Rosario
ALTERNATE 1 4-1 4 Maximum Impact A Beschizza

* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX

RACE #8 $100,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:44 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 SPARE CASH

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 4 Spare Cash T Gaffalione
PLACE 3-1 5 American Pyramid J R Velazquez
SHOW 6-1 10 Diva Ready L Saez
WILD CARD 20-1 6 Robins Fantasy R Bejarano
ALTERNATE 1 6-1 16 Aboukir Bay A Beschizza
ALTERNATE 2 6-1 12 Honeycomb B J Hernandez Jr.

* EXACTA: 4-5 BOX, 5-10 BOX, 10-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/10 BOX, 5/6/10 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Keeneland Hotlist - April 27

April 27, 2022

Today’s Keeneland Hot List races to watch
Wednesday, April 27, 2022

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

2nd race – (5) Federalist Papers (B) ran wide while finishing third on Tapeta. Figures to thrive back on turf. (6) Bella Conchita should be suited by the distance. (3) Good Measure could fit in nicely with this group. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-5-6.

4th race – (1) Chardy Party debuts for Ward and may not look back from the rail. (12) Devious could like turf and has a nice turn of speed from the outside post. (11) Doozy Batz is another Ward firster who deserves consideration. (7) Georgetown Road has an interesting turf pedigree. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-7-11-12 with 2-4-8-9. Doubles: 1-7-11-12 with 2-4-8-9. Pick 3: 1-7-11-12 with 2-4-8-9 with 5-9-10-11.

5th race – (2) Nosilverspoonshere debuts for Cox in a claimer and may prove best. (8) Darene put in a nice gate work for her career debut and can be a contender. (4) Nibbles is worth a look off the Hiles claim. (9) CoCo Puff should turn in a better try in a dirt claimer. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4-8-9. Doubles: 2-4-8-9 with 5-9-10-11.

6th race – (9) Floriform was a solid third in a graded turf stakes at Tampa Bay and merits top billing here. (11) Point Me By has been freshened since February and seems ready for a strong effort in this field. (5) Skyro was a game second last time and cannot be ignored here. (10) Monition missed by a neck when second after a four-month break and can be formidable. Betting strategy: 9 to win, place. Exacta box: 5-9-10-11.

8th race – (4) Spare Cash was second in her last two starts and should transfer that sharp form from synthetics to turf. (9) Saffron Moon might perk up on turf. (7) Take Joy had useful comeback race and should be in better shape for this try. (5) American Pyramid could be tough to collar in this spot. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 4-5-7-9.

No.


Letter/Last race


Today’s race




Comment
















(5)


Federalist Papers


B, 2/10


2 Kee


Will welcome a return to turf

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Thistledown

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $12600 Class Rating: 87

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE OCTOBER 27. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 27 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 27 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 GIO SAMMY 8/5
# 1 FOREST CHATTER 2/1
# 4 ROLLS ROYCE DEAL 5/2

GIO SAMMY is the best wager in this race. Like the finishes in the last couple of races. Sound average speed figures in dirt sprint races make this racer a contender. With a sound jockey who has won at a very good 26 percent rate over the last month. This has to be one of the top selections. FOREST CHATTER - Has to be given consideration - I like the figs from the last outing. Is tough not to look at given the company run in as of late. ROLLS ROYCE DEAL - Earned a competitive speed fig last time out. Is worth considering and may be a bet - strong Equibase Speed Figures (72 average) at today's distance and surface lately.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10900 Class Rating: 71

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 VALENTINE GUY 3/1
# 2 BATTLESHIP BEVO 5/1
# 1 HEPUTTHEACEINRACE 8/5

VALENTINE GUY has a decent shot to take this race. Difficult to pass on this gelding with Jordan in the saddle. Should be given a chance in this contest if only for the solid Equibase speed fig posted in the last outing. He has been running strongly and the speed figures are among the top in this group of horses in this race. BATTLESHIP BEVO - His 66 average has this gelding with among the strongest Equibase Speed Figures for this race. When this jockey and trainer team up, gamblers often make money. HEPUTTHEACEINRACE - The class rating of today's race is much lower than his last affair. Has to be considered versus this group displaying strong numbers recently and an average speed fig of 63 under similar conditions.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #3 - Post: 1:42pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 67

Rating:

#5 BAROLA (ML=5/1)
#2 MERICATHEBEAUTIFUL (ML=3/1)


BAROLA - This jockey and conditioner have a beneficial return on investment when they combine forces. Trainer Kintz moves this thoroughbred to a lower level to face a lower class field. Look for a solid performance given this drop. MERICATHEBEAUTIFUL - After the event aboard this horse on March 26th, the jock is going to 'know' the mare much better.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 HURRY UP DEAR (ML=5/2), #9 SHES SKY HIGH (ML=6/1), #3 WHAT A KNOCKOUT (ML=8/1),

HURRY UP DEAR - This morning-line choice may be out of shape without any recent works. This closer will probably be rolling fast from far back much too late to make an impact in this affair. SHES SKY HIGH - Looked good on Apr 3rd, finishing second, but no drills since is a bit troublesome. WHAT A KNOCKOUT - If you keep choosing these sort of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be dissatisfied often. Hasn't ran since July 1st, probably too long ago to do much this time around. This horse ran a quite unimpressive speed figure last time around the track. She shouldn't improve and will probably lose in today's race running that fig.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #5 BAROLA on the nose if you can get odds of 3/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	5 with 2 with [9,11,12] Total Cost: $3
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	5 with 2 with [3,4,9,11,12] with [3,4,9,11,12] Total Cost: $20
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	[2,5] with [2,5] with [4,9,11,12] with [4,9,11,12] with [4,9,11,12] Total Cost: $48

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn National

Penn National - Race 5	W-P-S / Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) / $0.50 Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8)
SO $16,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 74 • Purse: $19,000 • Post: 7:49P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $16,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 27 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 27 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Trailer. SINISE is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SINISE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. AMEN SYLVIA: Horse ranks i n the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. DWELLER: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse r anks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. GOLDEN LAW: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
2	SINISE	2/1	3/1
3	AMEN SYLVIA	3/1	7/1
4	DWELLER	9/2	10/1
6	GOLDEN LAW	6/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	WINDY GLO SAL	5	7/2	Front-runner	71	70	82.0	57.2	48.2
4	DWELLER	4	9/2	Front-runner	57	67	68.1	60.0	53.5
3	AMEN SYLVIA	3	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	84	74	53.4	71.4	65.4
6	GOLDEN LAW	6	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	73	56	50.4	65.2	58.7
2	SINISE	2	2/1	Trailer	79	77	54.6	70.1	64.6
1	TOOTSYSROCKNROLLER	1	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	70	59	17.4	61.0	54.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Parx Racing - Race #11 - Post: 5:25pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,000 Class Rating: 53

Rating:

#3 SOCIAL JOE (ML=5/1)
#6 GO SKIPPY GO (ML=10/1)


SOCIAL JOE - Trainer Taylor moves this one down in class to face a less competitive field. Look for a good race racing against these lower level horses. GO SKIPPY GO - Finished in the place spot, but easily 2nd over the third horse. Those types usually run well next time out. This colt is in first-rate condition right now. Ran second last time out and comes back quickly. Took a drop in class in the last race, running against the same type today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 OUTWORKNFORAKISS (ML=2/1), #1 A GRAY FOR CAROLYN (ML=7/2), #7 DADASHEV (ML=9/2),

OUTWORKNFORAKISS - Hasn't raced or had any workouts since Mar 22nd. Not much value on this morning-line choice. Earned a run-of-the-mill speed rating in the last race in a Maiden Special race on March 22nd. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that rating. A GRAY FOR CAROLYN - I cannot play this frequent non-winner. Gets the assignment fulfilled now and then. DADASHEV - The finish of sixth in the last event shows me that this animal may be getting out of condition.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - GO SKIPPY GO - Posting a better speed rating each of his last couple of contests. This colt is a prime candidate to win today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#3 SOCIAL JOE is going to be the play if we are getting 5/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

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Rk	Sports Services	Free Sports Picks
1.	NSA(The Legend)	MLB – Yankees -1.5
2.	Gameday Network	MLB – Nationals +130
3.	Sports Action 365	MLB – Dodgers -175
4.	Vegas Line Crushers	NBA – Warriors -8.5
5.	VegasSI.com	NBA – Bulls over 217.5
6.	PointSpreadReport.com(SAM CASEY)	NHL – Kings -170
7.	Henry Brown Sports	NHL – Canadiens over 6
8.	Winning Big Sports	MLB – Cardinals +100
9.	Lou Panelli	MLB – Yankees -1.5
10.	VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club	NBA – Warriors under 225.5
11.	William E. Stockton	NBA – Bucks -12.5
12.	Vincent Pioli	MLB – Nationals +130
13.	Steve “Scoop” Kendall	MLB – Phillies -1.5
14.	SCORE	NHL – Blackhawks over 6.5
15.	Tony Campone	NHL – Jets -1.5
16.	Chicago Sports Group	MLB – Padres -165
17.	Hollywood Sportsline	MLB – Cardinals +100
18.	VIP Action	MLB – Braves -1.5
19.	South Beach Sports	NHL – Kings under 6
20.	Las Vegas Sports Commission	NHL – Canadiens over 6
21.	NY Players Club	MLB – Yankees -1.5
22.	Fred Callahan	MLB – Dodgers -175
23.	Las Vegas Private CEO Club	NBA – Warriors -8.5
24.	Michigan Sports	NHL – Blackhawks +175
25.	National Consensus Report	NHL – Jets -1.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR WEDNESDAY: ST LOUIS (Matz) Pick'em over NY Mets

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Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Texas w/Otto +110 over Houston

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Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, WEDNESDAY, APRIL 27, 2022
4/27 07:00 PM PT / 10:00 PM ET

NBA (555) DENVER NUGGETS VS (556) GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

Take: UNDER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals4U

Wednesday's Free Selection: Milwaukee Brewers/Pittsburgh Pirates over 7 1/2