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Game: (24445) Jake Collier at (24446) Andrei Arlovski
Date/Time: May 1 2022 1:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Andrei Arlovski -135
In a main card bout, Andrei Arlovski faces Jake Collier…
I've said we can't make a living betting on over 40 year old fighters, but here we are…
Let me explain myself as to why it's a fantastic spot.
This is clearly a level's bout where Andrei is better but age discrepancy tightens line. (Jake 33, Andrei 43) What sticks out most is anytime Arlovski faces anyone other then top level, he basically wins. Now there was a bad run from 2018 to 2019, going 1-5 in 6 cage appearances. It appeared the end of a legendary career… but not so fast. Just as everyone began writing him off Arlovski flipped the script now on a 5-1 run only losing to soon to be title challenger Tom Aspinall, which was competitive early until Tom sunk in 2nd round rear naked choke finish. What's been making him successful you ask..? Well, first thanks for answering that question and secondly Andrei's reinvented himself. No longer standing in the pocket going blow for blow allowing his chin to be tested. Especially over his last few fights for the first time being more elusive. This movement protects his chin as well as firing more versatile strikes. Adding in different angled kicks, body and legs targeted opening up his boxing combinations. Add in he'll also have the speed advantage as well against Jake whom is more willing to brawl then fight technical. This is where Andrei should find success. While Collier fires sloppy combinations wildly throwing, Arlovski should find repeated openings to counter capitalizing on speed and better footwork. Clearly both have fought extremely different levels of competition, yet over the last few fights its the best Andrei's looked. No real signs of diminishing skills as he's having a career resurgence. While Jake's fought middle level opponents over his career. Quickly looking over Jake's last 3 fights… having a sloppy brawl with human punching bag Gian Villante who's 2-7 in last 9 UFC bouts. Although Jake won, it was closer in spots then is should be displaying lackluster defensive awareness. Next he faced Carlos Felipe whom is no longer in the UFC. Collier lost via decision, while Arlovski recently defeated Carlos via decision. I'm not one for MMA math, but it's a nice add on. Then most recently defeated Chase Sherman in round 1. Which sounds great, but Chase literally tripped and Collier fell on top of him into full mount. No slick movement, just fell into a dominating position. Landing heavy shots in which Chase turned over and Jake sunk in the submission finish.
Nothing I've see from Collier should worry Andrei. Still seeing a mid-level fighter who's not elevating proceeding to use the same “bar fight” strategy. I believe Andrei still has enough in the tank to beat a bottom feeder like Jake who's really done nothing over his entire career. At the current line of -135 providing us an implied probability of roughly 57% chance I believe is low providing solid value in this spot for a 4% Best Bet.
4% Play: Andrei Arlovski (-135)
Released April 25, 2022 11:43 AM EDT
Game: (24421) Gabriel Green at (24422) Yohan Lainesse
Date/Time: May 1 2022 1:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Gabriel Green -125
In a preliminary bout Gabe Green faces Yohan Lainesse…
Both men possess power but Gabriel Green can trailblaze several paths to win Saturday night.
Getting right to the point… heading into his UFC debut Yohan Lainesse has displayed heavy hands going 8-0, 6 by KO with 5 in round 1. Basically the strongest path to victory for Yohan lines up with resistance from Gabe Green. Durability mixed with a strong gas tank is the recipe for success against a one demensional power puncher with limited cardio. Not only that, but having a grappling advantage could drain and wear down Yohan further. The overextending of power shots dropped lesser opposition whom didn't have the grappling background of Green either. Smaller cage allows Gabe windows to pin Lainesse up against the fence, this assists in locking arms in for the takedowns. Truly believe any early takedown is a massive success pushing the cardio of Yohan out the gate. Keeping him off rhythm with threat of takedowns looming is key. On the feet both men fire wildly but only chance I'd give Yohan winning is landing a perfect bomb. Although Gabe's chin should hold up in the early melee… In Green's UFC debut against rising talent Daniel Rodriguez, Gabe's chin was highly tested showing he can withstand power. Plus coming off his first UFC win, I like the momentum and growth displayed in defeating a very tall and long Phil Rowe.
Game plan seems simple. Don't get nuked. Otherwise Gabe should drown Yohan finding his way to victory. Green can level change, find a KO finish or control the action winning on the cards using grappling. At nearly a pick'em I see lots of upside in this spot.
Play: Gabriel Green (-125)
Released April 29, 2022 4:30 PM EDT
Game: (24413) Daniel da Silva at (24414) Francisco Figueiredo
Date/Time: May 1 2022 1:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Daniel da Silva -120
In a preliminary bout Saturday night, Daniel de Silva faces Francisco Figueiredo…
Can't wait to see the Champion back in action after defeating Brandon Moreno and it's… wait what?? Deiveson Figueiredo isn't fighting Saturday..?? Ohhhh, it's his brother.
Only thing those two have in common is a last name and poor cardio.
Francisco Figeiredo's currently supporting a 12-4 record with only 2 of which taking place in the octagon. Over those 6 rounds of fighting it displayed multiple holes in his game. In his UFC debut he faced Jerome Rivera whom is currently on a 0-4 run, in which early Figgy was landing. But that death trap cardio kicked in round 3 where Rivera began gaining control. Not only does Rivera possess zero striking ability, but allowing Francisco to have top control all fight. A more equipped grappler and striker would've capitalize on those mistakes. Most recently the UFC put him against Malcolm Gordan whom was on an 0-2 start to his UFC contract. Once again a well below status fighter and somehow Figgy was outmatched all fight. Losing in pretty much all grappling situations as Malcolm worked from dominant position. This felt like a “gimme” fight for Francisco but boy did he fail. No offense to Malcolm, but style wish Figgy should've showed up. On the other side of the cage is a young up and comer in our boy Daniel da Silva. Now before I go any further, I must disclose there was limited footage of him unfortunately. I don't think MMA organizations like Shooto Brazil have app's available in the App Store. Yet, from what I did see I was highly impressed although a loss in UFC debut but still displayed ability. Taking on a very well skilled Jeff Molina who's currently on a 9 fight win streak including multiple UFC victories. It was a losing effort, but round 1 he displayed good footwork and extremely quick snapping kicks. Within the first min Silva latched onto Molina taking his back hunting for submission. This is no easy feat and against much lesser opponents, like Francisco, those openings Daniel will jump on.
With the mixing of bad cardio with grappling deficiencies and lesser striking ability Figgy will find himself in danger often. He's suppose to have solid BJJ, but multiple times he's losing from dominating positions or easily reversed. Plus his fighting IQ is minimal making poor decisions in big moments. It's a spot I believe Silva is better anywhere this fight goes checking all the boxes on better versatile striking, pace, speed and grappling. Figgy repeatedly throws the same 1,2 combinations or just waiting to fire the big shot allows opponents to push the pace. Could be Figgy's conserving energy being more economical but either way those openings Silva will find success. On the mat Silva is dangerous. Even off his back submission hunting with 4 armbar and 2 triangle pro wins proving he's lethal in any grappling position. Add in Figgy's weak cardio and it provides plenty of spots for Silva getting his hand raised. At nearly a pick'em, book it.
Play: Daniel da Silva (-120)
Released April 26, 2022 2:51 PM EDT
Game: (24401) Marlon Vera at (24402) Rob Font
Date/Time: May 1 2022 1:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 2%
Play: Marlon Vera +120
Game: (24445) Jake Collier at (24446) Andrei Arlovski
Date/Time: May 1 2022 1:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Andrei Arlovski -135
In a main card bout, Andrei Arlovski faces Jake Collier…
I've said we can't make a living betting on over 40 year old fighters, but here we are…
Let me explain myself as to why it's a fantastic spot.
This is clearly a level's bout where Andrei is better but age discrepancy tightens line. (Jake 33, Andrei 43) What sticks out most is anytime Arlovski faces anyone other then top level, he basically wins. Now there was a bad run from 2018 to 2019, going 1-5 in 6 cage appearances. It appeared the end of a legendary career… but not so fast. Just as everyone began writing him off Arlovski flipped the script now on a 5-1 run only losing to soon to be title challenger Tom Aspinall, which was competitive early until Tom sunk in 2nd round rear naked choke finish. What's been making him successful you ask..? Well, first thanks for answering that question and secondly Andrei's reinvented himself. No longer standing in the pocket going blow for blow allowing his chin to be tested. Especially over his last few fights for the first time being more elusive. This movement protects his chin as well as firing more versatile strikes. Adding in different angled kicks, body and legs targeted opening up his boxing combinations. Add in he'll also have the speed advantage as well against Jake whom is more willing to brawl then fight technical. This is where Andrei should find success. While Collier fires sloppy combinations wildly throwing, Arlovski should find repeated openings to counter capitalizing on speed and better footwork. Clearly both have fought extremely different levels of competition, yet over the last few fights its the best Andrei's looked. No real signs of diminishing skills as he's having a career resurgence. While Jake's fought middle level opponents over his career. Quickly looking over Jake's last 3 fights… having a sloppy brawl with human punching bag Gian Villante who's 2-7 in last 9 UFC bouts. Although Jake won, it was closer in spots then is should be displaying lackluster defensive awareness. Next he faced Carlos Felipe whom is no longer in the UFC. Collier lost via decision, while Arlovski recently defeated Carlos via decision. I'm not one for MMA math, but it's a nice add on. Then most recently defeated Chase Sherman in round 1. Which sounds great, but Chase literally tripped and Collier fell on top of him into full mount. No slick movement, just fell into a dominating position. Landing heavy shots in which Chase turned over and Jake sunk in the submission finish.
Nothing I've see from Collier should worry Andrei. Still seeing a mid-level fighter who's not elevating proceeding to use the same “bar fight” strategy. I believe Andrei still has enough in the tank to beat a bottom feeder like Jake who's really done nothing over his entire career. At the current line of -135 providing us an implied probability of roughly 57% chance I believe is low providing solid value in this spot for a 4% Best Bet.
4% Play: Andrei Arlovski (-135)
Released April 25, 2022 11:43 AM EDT
Game: (24421) Gabriel Green at (24422) Yohan Lainesse
Date/Time: May 1 2022 1:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Gabriel Green -125
In a preliminary bout Gabe Green faces Yohan Lainesse…
Both men possess power but Gabriel Green can trailblaze several paths to win Saturday night.
Getting right to the point… heading into his UFC debut Yohan Lainesse has displayed heavy hands going 8-0, 6 by KO with 5 in round 1. Basically the strongest path to victory for Yohan lines up with resistance from Gabe Green. Durability mixed with a strong gas tank is the recipe for success against a one demensional power puncher with limited cardio. Not only that, but having a grappling advantage could drain and wear down Yohan further. The overextending of power shots dropped lesser opposition whom didn't have the grappling background of Green either. Smaller cage allows Gabe windows to pin Lainesse up against the fence, this assists in locking arms in for the takedowns. Truly believe any early takedown is a massive success pushing the cardio of Yohan out the gate. Keeping him off rhythm with threat of takedowns looming is key. On the feet both men fire wildly but only chance I'd give Yohan winning is landing a perfect bomb. Although Gabe's chin should hold up in the early melee… In Green's UFC debut against rising talent Daniel Rodriguez, Gabe's chin was highly tested showing he can withstand power. Plus coming off his first UFC win, I like the momentum and growth displayed in defeating a very tall and long Phil Rowe.
Game plan seems simple. Don't get nuked. Otherwise Gabe should drown Yohan finding his way to victory. Green can level change, find a KO finish or control the action winning on the cards using grappling. At nearly a pick'em I see lots of upside in this spot.
Play: Gabriel Green (-125)
Released April 29, 2022 4:30 PM EDT
Game: (24413) Daniel da Silva at (24414) Francisco Figueiredo
Date/Time: May 1 2022 1:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Daniel da Silva -120
In a preliminary bout Saturday night, Daniel de Silva faces Francisco Figueiredo…
Can't wait to see the Champion back in action after defeating Brandon Moreno and it's… wait what?? Deiveson Figueiredo isn't fighting Saturday..?? Ohhhh, it's his brother.
Only thing those two have in common is a last name and poor cardio.
Francisco Figeiredo's currently supporting a 12-4 record with only 2 of which taking place in the octagon. Over those 6 rounds of fighting it displayed multiple holes in his game. In his UFC debut he faced Jerome Rivera whom is currently on a 0-4 run, in which early Figgy was landing. But that death trap cardio kicked in round 3 where Rivera began gaining control. Not only does Rivera possess zero striking ability, but allowing Francisco to have top control all fight. A more equipped grappler and striker would've capitalize on those mistakes. Most recently the UFC put him against Malcolm Gordan whom was on an 0-2 start to his UFC contract. Once again a well below status fighter and somehow Figgy was outmatched all fight. Losing in pretty much all grappling situations as Malcolm worked from dominant position. This felt like a “gimme” fight for Francisco but boy did he fail. No offense to Malcolm, but style wish Figgy should've showed up. On the other side of the cage is a young up and comer in our boy Daniel da Silva. Now before I go any further, I must disclose there was limited footage of him unfortunately. I don't think MMA organizations like Shooto Brazil have app's available in the App Store. Yet, from what I did see I was highly impressed although a loss in UFC debut but still displayed ability. Taking on a very well skilled Jeff Molina who's currently on a 9 fight win streak including multiple UFC victories. It was a losing effort, but round 1 he displayed good footwork and extremely quick snapping kicks. Within the first min Silva latched onto Molina taking his back hunting for submission. This is no easy feat and against much lesser opponents, like Francisco, those openings Daniel will jump on.
With the mixing of bad cardio with grappling deficiencies and lesser striking ability Figgy will find himself in danger often. He's suppose to have solid BJJ, but multiple times he's losing from dominating positions or easily reversed. Plus his fighting IQ is minimal making poor decisions in big moments. It's a spot I believe Silva is better anywhere this fight goes checking all the boxes on better versatile striking, pace, speed and grappling. Figgy repeatedly throws the same 1,2 combinations or just waiting to fire the big shot allows opponents to push the pace. Could be Figgy's conserving energy being more economical but either way those openings Silva will find success. On the mat Silva is dangerous. Even off his back submission hunting with 4 armbar and 2 triangle pro wins proving he's lethal in any grappling position. Add in Figgy's weak cardio and it provides plenty of spots for Silva getting his hand raised. At nearly a pick'em, book it.
Play: Daniel da Silva (-120)
Released April 26, 2022 2:51 PM EDT
Game: (24401) Marlon Vera at (24402) Rob Font
Date/Time: May 1 2022 1:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 2%
Play: Marlon Vera +120
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