Thursday 6/2/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-02-2022, 08:26 AM

Thursday’s games

National League
San Francisco (27-22) @ Miami (20-28)
— Wood is 0-2, 7.62 in his last three starts.
— Giants are 4-5 in his starts.
— over 5-1 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 3-9
— record in first 5 innings: 4-5
— He is 8-4, 2.50 in 14 starts vs Miami.

— Giants won three of last four games.
— San Francisco is 14-11 on road.
— over 22-9-1 last 32
— scored run in first inning: 9-49
— record in first 5 innings: 25-19-5

— Alcantara is 3-0, 1.80 in his last three starts.
— Marlins are 6-4 in his starts.
— under 6-4
— allowed run in first inning: 3-10
— record in first 5 innings: 5-3-2
— He is 0-2, 3.00 in five starts vs San Francisco.

— Miami is 8-20 in its last 28 games.
— Marlins are 10-12 at home.
— over 3-1 last four games.
— scored run in first inning: 9-48
— record in first 5 innings: 18-22-8

Washington (18-34) @ Cincinnati (17-32)
— Adon is 0-6, 6.82 in his last seven starts.
— Nationals are 1-9 in his starts
— under 4-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 5-10
— record in first 5 innings: 0-9-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Cincinnati.

— Washington is 9-18 in its last 27 games.
— Nationals are 9-16 on road.
— over 8-3 last eleven games.
— scored run in first inning: 21-52
— record in first 5 innings: 17-31-4

— Ashcroft is 1-0, 1.69 in his two starts.
— Reds are 2-0 in his starts.
— under 2-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-2
— record in first 5 innings: 1-0-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Washington.

— Reds won five of last seven games.
— Cincinnati is 9-12 at home.
— under 11-5 in last sixteen games
— scored run in first inning: 11-49
— record in first 5 innings: 14-28-7

San Diego (30-20) @ Milwaukee (32-20)
— Manaea is 0-0, 4.50 in his last three starts.
— San Diego is 4-5 in his starts.
— over 5-0-1 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 5-9
— record in first 5 innings: 2-5-2
— He is 0-1, 6.43 in one start vs Milwaukee.

— Padres are 1-4 in their last five games.
— San Diego is 17-10 on road.
— under 11-2-2 last fifteen games.
— scored run in first inning: 14-50
— record in first 5 innings: 26-16-8

— Houser is 0-3, 7.65 in his last four starts.
— Milwaukee is 3-6 in his starts.
— over 4-2 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 4-9
— record in first 5 innings: 4-5
— He is 0-1, 1.88 in four starts vs San Diego.

— Brewers are 28-15 in their last 43 games.
— Milwaukee is 14-6 at home.
— under 10-6 last sixteen games
— scored run in first inning: 16-52
— record in first 5 innings: 22-19-11

St Louis (29-21) @ Cubs (21-29)
— Liberatore is 1-0, 3.72 in two starts.
— Cardinals are 2-0 in his starts.
— over 1-0-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-2
— record in first 5 innings: 2-0
— He hasn’t pitched against Chicago.

— Cardinals won nine of their last 12 games.
— St Louis is 13-10 on road.
— under 4-2-1 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 18-50
— record in first 5 innings: 25-19-6

— Thompson is 2-0, 1.93 in three starts.
— Cubs are 3-0 in his starts.
— under 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 3-0
— He is 0-0, 3.72 in six games (1 start) vs St Louis.

— Cubs are 3-5 in their last eight games.
— Cubs are 9-17 at home.
— over 9-4 last thirteen games
— scored run in first inning: 21-50
— record in first 5 innings: 20-23-7

Atlanta (24-27) @ Colorado (23-27)
— Anderson is 0-2, 4.70 in his last four starts.
— Atlanta is 5-4 in his last five starts.
— over 4-2-1 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 2-7
— record in first 5 innings: 4-1-4
— He is 0-0, 12.00 in one start (3 IP) vs Colorado.

— Braves won three of their last four games.
— Atlanta is 10-13 on road.
— over 22-13-1 last 36 games
— scored run in first inning: 13-51
— record in first 5 innings: 24-22-5

— Gomber is 0-3, 8.24 in his last four starts.
— Rockies are 3-6 in his starts.
— over 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 3-9
— record in first 5 innings: 2-6-2
— He is 2-0, 1.29 in two games (1 start) vs Atlanta.

— Colorado is 8-17 in its last 25 games.
— Rockies are 16-12 at home.
— over 6-2 last eight games.
— scored run in first inning: 14-50
— record in first 5 innings: 17-27-6

NY Mets (35-17) @ Los Angeles (33-17)
— Walker is 3-0, 1.88 in his last four starts.
— Mets are 4-3 in his starts
— under 4-2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-7
— record in first 5 innings: 4-2-1
— He is 3-2, 4.37 in nine starts vs Los Angeles.

— Mets are 24-12 in their last 36 games.
— Mets are 16-9 on road.
— over 9-2 last eleven games.
— scored run in first inning: 22-52
— record in first 5 innings: 31-12-9

— Gonsolin is 4-0, 1.93 in his last five starts.
— Dodgers are 6-3 in his starts
— under 6-3
— allowed run in first inning: 1-9
— record in first 5 innings: 7-0-2
— He hasn’t pitched against the Mets.

— Dodgers lost their last three games.
— Los Angeles is 15-8 at home.
— under 5-3 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 18-50
— record in first 5 innings: 30-13-7

American League
LA Angels (27-23) @ New York (34-15)
— Detmers is 0-1, 7.45 in two starts since his no-hitter.
— Angels are 4-4 in his starts.
— over 3-0-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 3-8
— record in first 5 innings: 4-3-1
— He hasn’t pitched against New York.

— Ohtani is 1-1, 2.88 in his last four starts.
— Angels are 3-5 in his starts.
— over 4-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 2-8
— record in first 5 innings: 3-3-2
— He allowed 7 runs in 0.2 IP, in his one start vs New York.

— Angels lost their last six games.
— Angels are 12-10 on road.
— over 10-4-1 last fifteen games
— scored run in first inning: 21-50
— record in first 5 innings: 29-17-4

— Cortes is 3-0, 1.59 in his last four starts.
— New York is 7-2 in his starts.
— under 5-4
— allowed run in first inning: 1-9
— record in first 5 innings: 4-1-4
— He gave up four runs in 6.2 IP in four relief stints vs Anaheim.

— Taillon is 4-0, 2.01 in his last five starts.
— New York is 7-2 in his starts.
— under 5-4
— allowed run in first inning: 1-9
— record in first 5 innings: 5-3-1
— He is 1-1, 9.90 in two starts vs Anaheim.

— New York won five of last seven games.
— New York is 18-7 at home.
— under 4-2 last six games
— scored run in first inning: 15-49
— record in first 5 innings: 27-9-13

Minnesota (30-22) @ Detroit (20-30)
— Archer is 0-2, 7.20 in his last four starts.
— Minnesota is 4-5 in his starts.
— over 5-2 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 2-9
— record in first 5 innings: 3-3-3
— He is 2-3, 3.57 in 12 starts vs Detroit.

— Minnesota won 12 of last 20 games.
— Twins are 13-11 on road.
— over 10-5 last fifteen games
— scored run in first inning: 16-52
— record in first 5 innings: 27-17-8

— Faedo is 1-1, 2.65 in his last three starts.
— Detroit is 2-3 in his starts.
— under 3-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-5
— record in first 5 innings: 2-2-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Minnesota.

— Tigers won six of last eight games.
— Detroit is 14-15 at home.
— under 31-15-1 last 47 games.
— scored run in first inning: 8-50
— record in first 5 innings: 15-28-7

Tampa Bay (29-21) @ Texas (24-25)
— Kluber is 0-0, 3.00 in his last three starts.
— Rays are 4-5 in his starts.
— under 7-2
— allowed run in first inning: 2-9
— record in first 5 innings: 3-5-1
— He is 5-1, 3.38 in nine starts vs Texas.

— Tampa Bay is 8-6 in its last 14 games.
— Rays are 3-7 in last ten road games.
— over 11-7-1 last 19 games
— scored run in first inning: 16-50
— record in first 5 innings: 23-16-11

— Hearn is 3-1, 4.38 in his last five starts.
— Rangers are 5-4 in his starts.
— over 5-3-1
— allowed run in first inning: 3-9
— record in first 5 innings: 5-3-1
— He allowed a run in 5.1 IP in three relief stints vs Tampa Bay.

— Rangers won six of last eight games.
— Texas is 12-13 at home.
— under 21-13-2 last 36 games
— scored run in first inning: 13-49
— record in first 5 innings: 16-21-12

Seattle (21-29) @ Baltimore (22-30)
— Flexen is 1-4, 4.91 in his last six starts.
— Seattle is 2-7 in his starts.
— under 7-2
— allowed run in first inning: 2-9
— record in first 5 innings: 2-5-2
— He hasn’t pitched against Baltimore.

— Mariners are 10-23 in their last 33 games.
— Seattle is 9-19 on road.
— under 4-2 last six games
— scored run in first inning: 16-50
— record in first 5 innings: 19-24-7

— Lyles is 1-1, 5.00 in his last three starts.
— Orioles are 4-6 in his starts.
— over 5-2 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 2-10
— record in first 5 innings: 2-6-2
— He is 2-5, 5.87 in nine starts vs Seattle.

— Orioles are 8-6 in their last fourteen games.
— Baltimore is 13-12 at home.
— over 11-5-1 last seventeen games.
— scored run in first inning: 5-52
— record in first 5 innings: 13-28-11

White Sox (23-25) @ Toronto (29-20)
— Cueto is 0-1, 2.41 in his three starts.
— White Sox are 2-1 in his starts.
— under 3-0
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 2-1
— He is 2-0, 4.05 in three starts vs Toronto.

— White Sox are 1-4 in their last five games.
— Chicago is 12-12 on road.
— under 20-12-1 last 33 games.
— scored run in first inning: 12-48
— record in first 5 innings: 21-22-5

— Manoah is 1-1, 3.24 in his last four starts.
— Toronto is 6-3 in his starts.
— under 8-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-9
— record in first 5 innings: 4-2-3
— He is 0-0, 1.64 in two starts vs Chicago.

— Blue Jays are 11-3 in their last 14 games.
— Toronto is 16-8 at home.
— over 7-1 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 19-49
— record in first 5 innings: 19-16-14

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-02-2022, 10:06 AM

Warriors-Celtics 2022 NBA Finals preview: My best bets
By Jonathan Von Tobel (VSiN)
June 2, 2022 06:12 AM

The Golden State Warriors are back in the NBA Finals for the sixth time in eight seasons after missing the postseason each of the last two years. The Boston Celtics’ young core of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart finally broke through and is now making its first Finals appearance.

It’s the series everyone wanted — once the conference finals were set — and it should be great basketball. But we’re not here for narratives. We’re here to bet, so let’s get started with our NBA Finals preview.

The basketball
Any analysis of a series involving the Celtics begins and ends with their defensive prowess. They have allowed just 106.0 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes this postseason, the second-best defensive rating behind only the Bucks (who played just 12 games). The Celtics’ + 7.4 net rating in non-garbage time is the best in these playoffs, 2.1 points ahead of the Warriors, who rank second. The Celtics’ perimeter defense has been incredible, allowing the lowest frequency of wide-open 3-point attempts this postseason (14.6%) while limiting opponents to 32.2% on 3-point shots overall. Their switch-heavy style of defense is a big reason why they limit open looks from deep, and that matches up extremely well with the Warriors.

The Warriors don’t run traditional pick-and-rolls but thrive by using dribble handoffs and off-ball actions to get open looks. They led the league by a wide margin in frequency of off-ball screens during the regular season (9.7%) and postseason (7.1%), and they’re averaging 1.07 points per possession when the play runs through an off-ball screen in these playoffs. They’re also running the second-highest frequency of handoffs this postseason behind only the Heat, and they have averaged 0.92 points per possession on those plays.
The Celtics are built for defending those actions. In the postseason, they have allowed just 0.85 points per possession on off-ball screens and 0.80 points per possession on handoffs. Their ability to switch to multiple matchups is a big reason why they’re able to defend those actions so well, and against the Warriors they can switch while maintaining a size advantage in almost every matchup.

The Warriors are great defensively as well, and the way they defend will bring some intrigue to this series. They have been brilliant in deterring shots within four feet of the basket this postseason, as only 18.0% of opponents’ attempts have been in the restricted area. That rate is insanely low — some of that is due to the philosophy of their playoff opponents, who were much more perimeter oriented — but they also led the league in that category in the regular season (27.0%).

The Celtics don’t pound it in the paint, but 30.3% of their attempts in these playoffs have come at the rim, and they average 19.2 paint touches per game. When the Celtics pressure the paint, their main mission is to kick it out to open shooters. They’re averaging 25.3 catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts this postseason, and while they shoot only 36.8% on those shots, that volume is fourth highest among playoff teams.

The Warriors’ ability to cut off the paint will go a long way toward limiting those catch-and-shoot opportunities, but it’s far from the only thing the Warriors have up their sleeve on the defensive end. The Celtics will see plenty of zone defense and other exotic looks.

The betting
Before the conference finals began, Westgate SuperBook oddsmaker Jeff Sherman posted series prices for potential Finals matchups. At that point, he made the Warriors a -120 favorite over the Celtics, and I was of the mindset that the Celtics should be favored in a series against the Warriors, despite not having home-court advantage, as they were over the Heat. However, as the Heat-Celtics series dragged out, my stance softened, and given how impactful home court has been this postseason — worth 3.5 points by my calculations — the Warriors are deserved favorites against the Celtics.

The question then becomes, by how much? The highest price this series has reached is -165, which carries an implied probability of 62.3%, and that’s too high by my measure. We have seen the market correct itself somewhat, and the consensus right now is -150 (60.0%), which is a fairer price but still a shade higher than the one I expected, which was about -130 (56.5%). Thus, there is some value in betting the Celtics at + 130 or better.

As far as betting goes on a game-to-game basis, if we’re going to see this series priced as it is, with the Celtics catching 3.5 points on the road, I believe there’s some spread value on the Celtics as well. As previously mentioned, the value of playing at home comes out to 3.5 points by my calculations. The average net rating of a home team in non-garbage time, according to Cleaning The Glass, is + 4.8. So the middle ground is between those two numbers.

The Warriors are 9-0 SU/7-2 ATS with a + 16.6 net rating at home this postseason, so one might think home court should hold serve and be worth even more. The problem with that idea is the Warriors’ opponent. The Celtics have been incredible on the road this postseason, going 7-2 SU/7-1-1 ATS with the best non-garbage time net rating away from home (+ 7.2). They covered 66.2% of their regular-season road games as well, so the sample size is there.

Game-by-game philosophy: I believe there’s some spread value on the Celtics as 3.5-point road underdogs and will be betting that angle accordingly.

Finals pick: Celtics win series 4-2.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-02-2022, 04:44 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Penn National - Race #2 - Post: 6:27pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,600 Class Rating: 49

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 THE LITTLE SPROUT (ML=8/5)
#2 TOUCH OF PRINCE (ML=2/1)

THE LITTLE SPROUT - Sneaky speed on this one. He'll probably be stalking thoroughbreds on the back side, then crush them down the stretch. TOUCH OF PRINCE - A big drop down in class rating points from his May 5th race at Penn National. Based on that data, I will give this animal the edge. This thoroughbred coming off a sharp contest in the last thirty days is a win candidate in my humble opinion.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 AWESOME WOLF (ML=5/2), #4 PEAKY BLINKERS (ML=8/1),

AWESOME WOLF - This gelding hasn't had any in the money results in sprint races in the last 60 days. PEAKY BLINKERS - Don't think that this colt has value at 8/1 today.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - THE LITTLE SPROUT - I'm making a bet on this gelding. Lasix is going to make all the difference in the world.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #1 THE LITTLE SPROUT to win if we can get at least 9/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,2]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-02-2022, 04:44 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Charles Town - Race #2 - Post: 7:30pm - Maiden Special - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $32,700 Class Rating: 62

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 SAYYESTOTHELADY (ML=2/1)

SAYYESTOTHELADY - Mendez was aboard this filly last time around the track and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. Finished in the place spot, but easily second over the third horse. Those types usually run well next time out. The 65 last race speed figure looks sound in the TrackMaster PPs. I usually like playing sprint horses who are 3-4 races into a return to racing.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 EMBERLY (ML=9/5), #2 ALL CAPS (ML=9/2), #1 TUESDAY TOO (ML=5/1),

EMBERLY - In any contest of 4 1/2 furlongs, I like to support a contender that has been on the board in sprint affairs recently. ALL CAPS - If she goes off near the morning line odds of 9/2, I'll have to pass. TUESDAY TOO - Tough for anyone who saw this questionable contender in her last clash to bet on her this time around. Not easy to wager on this less than sharp equine this time out. Make her show you something in a sprint race before you bet on her in a race of 4 1/2 furlongs.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #4 SAYYESTOTHELADY to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
4 with [2,3]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-02-2022, 04:46 PM

Rk	Sports Services	Free Sports Picks
1.	NSA(The Legend)	MLB – Braves -140
2.	Gameday Network	MLB – Brewers -110
3.	Sports Action 365	MLB – Nationals under 9.5
4.	Vegas Line Crushers	MLB – Braves under 11.5
5.	VegasSI.com	NHL – Avalanche -170
6.	PointSpreadReport.com(SAM CASEY)	NHL – Avalanche under 7.5
7.	Henry Brown Sports	MLB – Nationals +120
8.	Winning Big Sports	MLB – Twins -130
9.	Lou Panelli	MLB – Orioles -105
10.	VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club	MLB – Angels GM1 +110
11.	William E. Stockton	MLB – Blue Jays over 8.5
12.	Vincent Pioli	NHL – Avalanche -170
13.	Steve “Scoop” Kendall	NHL – Avalanche under 7.5
14.	SCORE	MLB – Orioles under 9
15.	Tony Campone	MLB – Dodgers -165
16.	Chicago Sports Group	MLB – Braves under 11.5
17.	Hollywood Sportsline	MLB – Nationals +120
18.	VIP Action	NHL – Avalanche -170
19.	South Beach Sports	NHL – Avalanche under 7.5
20.	Las Vegas Sports Commission	MLB – Rays -130
21.	NY Players Club	MLB – Yankees GM2 -145
22.	Fred Callahan	MLB – Orioles -105
23.	Las Vegas Private CEO Club	MLB – Twins -130
24.	Michigan Sports	NHL – Avalanche -170
25.	National Consensus Report	NHL – Avalanche under 7.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-02-2022, 05:45 PM

Odds Shark (Paulo Antunes)

NBA
Warriors ML (-157)
Steph Curry under 27.5 points (-114)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-02-2022, 05:47 PM

VegasInsider (Kevin Rogers)

NBA
Warriors -3.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-02-2022, 05:47 PM

Mike Wynn

Free Pick: LA Dodgers w/Gonsolin -150 over NY Mets

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-02-2022, 05:47 PM

Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR THURSDAY: SAN DIEGO/MILWAUKEE UNDER the total of 8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-02-2022, 05:48 PM

Totals4U

Thursday's Free Selection: Seattle Mariners/Baltimore Orioles under 9

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-02-2022, 05:48 PM

#1 Sports

Thursday's Free Play: Seattle Mariners - 120

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-02-2022, 05:48 PM

Platinum Plays

Your Free Pick: the Seattle/Baltimore Game UNDER 9 Runs

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-02-2022, 05:49 PM

Nevada Sharpshooter

Your free winner for Thursday : Take SEATTLE/BALTIMORE OVER the total of 9 runs

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-02-2022, 05:49 PM

Hawkeye Sports

Thursday's Free Pick: Colorado Avalanche - 175

Thursday 6/2/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Thursday 6/2/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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