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THE LOOKAHEAD
Brad Thomas
AFC South: Colts (-125)
NFC North: Vikings (+275)
NFC West: LA Rams (+125)
World Cup: Germany (+900)
Sam Burns over Tony Finau (-115) Round 2
FOLLOW THE MONEY
Mitch Moss
Braves (-1.5) vs Cubs
Pauly Howard
Braves-Cubs Yes Run in 1st (+100)
A NUMBERS GAME
Jason Weingarten
Rockies -1.5 +240 over Padres
Rangers-Tigers under 8 -115
Ben Wilson
Notre Dame +115 over Texas (College World Series)
6:05 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (35-28) at Baltimore Orioles (28-37)
The Rays just got swept by the Yankees in a three-game series in New York. On the flip side, the Orioles just hung tough and split a four-game series on the road against Toronto. In tonight's AL East division series opener, Tampa Bay hands the ball to righty Shane Baz (0-1, 19.29 ERA) and Baltimore starts fellow righty Dean Kremer (1-1, 3.86 ERA). This line opened with the Rays listed as a -135 road favorite and the Orioles a +115 home dog. Sharps are buying low on the Rays after losing three straight, steaming Tampa Bay up from -135 to -145. Favorites off a loss who made the playoffs last year are 124-64 (66%) this season. The Rays are 28-15 as a favorite and 26-21 against righties. The Orioles are 25-35 as a dog and 16-25 against righties. Tampa Bay is 4-2 against Baltimore this season. The Rays are +18 in run differential. The Orioles are -40.
7:05 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants (35-27) at Pittsburgh Pirates (25-37)
The Giants are 8-4 over their last 12 games, having just taken two of three at home against the Royals. Conversely, the Pirates are 1-9 over their last ten games and just lost three of four at home against the Cardinals. In tonight's series opener, San Francisco starts lefty Carlos Rodon (5-4, 3.18 ERA) and Pittsburgh counters with righty Zach Thompson (3-4, 4.50 ERA). This line opened with the Giants listed as a -190 road favorite and the Pirates a +175 home dog. Wiseguys aren't scared off by the big chalk and have steamed the Giants up from -190 to -200. Non-division road favorites are 125-60 (68%) this season. When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 53-26 (67%). San Francisco also has correlative betting value as a big favorite in a low total game (7.5). The Giants are 29-19 as a favorite, 16-13 on the road and 23-21 against righties. The Pirates are 18-30 as a dog, 13-17 at home and 9-13 against lefties. San Francisco is hitting .239 while Pittsburgh is hitting .220. The Giants are +40 in run differential. The Pirates are -101.
8:40 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres (41-24) at Colorado Rockies (27-37)
The Padres are 11-3 over their last 14 games and just swept the Cubs in a four-game series on the road. Meanwhile, the Rockies are 4-10 over their last 14 games and just got swept by the Guardians at home. In tonight's series opener, San Diego hands the ball to rookie lefty Mackenzie Gore (4-2, 2.50 ERA) and the Rockies counter with veteran southpaw Kyle Freeland (2-5, 4.39 ERA). This line opened with the Padres listed as a -145 road favorite and the Rockies a +125 home dog. Pros aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're riding the better, hotter team, steaming San Diego up from -145 to -155. Road favorites are 220-125 (64%) this season. San Diego has the far better pitching staff, sporting a team ERA of 3.32 compared to Colorado's 5.01. The Padres are 26-15 as favorites, 24-11 on the road and 16-6 against lefties. The Rockies are 18-30 as dogs, 16-19 at home and 10-12 against lefties. San Diego is +74 in run differential. Colorado is -69.
1005am 901 Phillies game one run line -1.5 runs -125
1120am 903 Braves -170
1120am 903 Over 8 on Braves
305pm 915 Over 8.5 on Tampa Bay Rays
410pm 928 Red Sox -115
510pm 922 Over 7.5 on Astros
540pm 913 Padres -160
640pm 929 Over 9 on Twins
MLB Two Team Parlays Bet $100 each
1005am 901 Phillies game one run line -1.5 runs -125
1120am 903 Braves -170
1120am 903 Over 8 on Braves
305pm 915 Over 8.5 on Tampa Bay Rays
410pm 928 Red Sox -115
510pm 922 Over 7.5 on Astros
540pm 913 Padres -160
640pm 929 Over 9 on Twins
Round Robins 3's and a 4 for $20 a way for $80 each
1005am 901 Phillies game one run line -1.5 runs -125
1120am 903 Braves -170
1120am 903 Over 8 on Braves
305pm 915 Over 8.5 on Tampa Bay Rays
410pm 928 Red Sox -115
510pm 922 Over 7.5 on Astros
540pm 913 Padres -160
640pm 929 Over 9 on Twins
*Yda Record: 8-0 SWEPT THE BOARD!!! OMG! Hope you guys were on these picks.... "Yesterday we easily won every straight bet, every parlay, every round robin, the A bet on the Evolution to go to 127 in a row and the series bet on Golden State. Sure wish every day was like yesterday. We have now won 17 out of 18 straight bets with only the loss on the Blue Jays run line which won by one on Wednesday. Today, our winning streak continues again with a PERFECT 15-0 WINNING DAY!
7-Unit Play. Take #903 Atlanta (-1.5, -110) over Chicago (NL) (2:20 p.m., Friday, June 17)
ATL: C. Morton CHI: K. Thompson
As if things couldn't get much worse for the Cubs after getting swept in four games by the Padres to lose their 10th game in a row, they welcome the Braves who are rested and have won 14 in a row. Atlanta's regular got a day of rest as they had an off day yesterday and veteran Charlie Morton will take the bump. Morton has not been at his best this season allowing 4 earned runs in each of his last four starts, but he is still able to miss bats as evidenced by him having 20 strikeouts over his last two starts (11 IP). Morton has been helped out by plenty of run support as his offense has provided him with 53 runs over his last 7 starts with Atlanta going 6-1 over those contests. Keegan Thompson will start with the ball for the Cubs and he has pitched well at Wrigley Field this season for the most part, but he hasn't been very good recently. In Thompson's last three starts, he has allowed 13 earned runs over 9 innings and I think he will have a tough time slowing this Braves lineup down that is clicking on all cylinders right now. I think both of these streaks will continue and Atlanta gets another win.
8-Unit Play #917-918 New York/Toronto GAME TOTAL UNDER 9.5-120 (Friday, June 17, 2022, 7:00 PM)
Take New York/Toronto GAME TOTAL UNDER as my top MLB pick for Friday night. This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and I expect to see a low-scoring game here given this pitching matchup. Montgomery has allowed just 3 earned runs over his last 3 starts spanning 20.1 innings while giving up just 14 hits. Montgomery has an ERA of 2.84 on the road this season and he gave up just 2 earned runs over 5 innings in his only start against Toronto this season. Stripling has an ERA of just 2.70 at home this season with 18 strikeouts over 20 innings and he has an ERA of just 2.37 in night games this season. Opponents have also hit just .215 against Stripling this season with an on-base percentage of .250 and I expect a solid start from him here tonight. Stripling did allow just 2 earned runs the only time he faced New York this season over 4 innings. Stripling has also not allowed an earned run over his last 3 outings spanning 13.2 innings. New York's opponents of averaged just 2.3 runs per game against them over their last 7 games while hitting .208 as a team against them and their bullpen has been solid on the road this season with an ERA of 2.70. Toronto's opponents have averaged 3.9 runs per game against them over their last 7 games while hitting .207 as a team against them and Toronto has struggled against lefty starter's this season hitting .235 as a team against them.
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