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Lenny Del Genio Guaranteed Selections
Date: Thursday, February 12, 2009
$35.00 Play on Golden State at 10:35 ET. Portland played last night, and we had them as they cashed as DD home favorites against Oklahoma City. However, they did need a big 4th quarter to grab the money. At home, the Blazers are very good. On the road, they are mediocre at best. Golden State opened as the dog in this matchup and was quickly bet to the role of favorite for good reason. They are 10-3-1 ATS as a home dog this year. They are also getting healthy as we head into the break. F Monta Ellis is finally back. They come off a game where they scored 144 points on the Knicks. Granted, the Knicks are no defensive stalwart, but neither is Portland, who allows the opposition to shoot 47.5% from the floor on the road. When the oddsmakers are expecting a high scoring affair is when Golden State is at its best as we note the Warriors are 14-5 ATS at home in 2008-09 when the total is posted at 210 or higher. Portland is just 5-9 ATS as road dog. Golden State is our #1 NBA Game of the Week.
Troy State was hammered in the season's first meeting - which also happened to be its Sun Belt Conference opener - losing 81-53 on the road. But there's a couple of things to consider when looking back at that game. First, it was the Trojans' first game in nine days. Second, they were playing a third straight on the road and coming off losses to Dayton of the Atlantic-10 and LSU of the SEC.
This is a different team that takes to its home floor tonight in Troy, Alabama as the Trojans have won eight in a row and 10 of their last 11 straight-up. And that homecourt edge should be the difference against a Middle Tennessee State squad that's lost four straight conference games on the highway, falling at Denver by 12, New Orleans by 4, Arkansas-Little Rock by 5, and Western Kentucky by 2. This is also the Blue Raiders' third straight road game as they just snapped that four-game losing streak on the highway with a 89-77 win in a non-conference tilt versus Houston Baptist.
Middle Tennessee is in the throes of a 2-7 ATS tailspin, failing to cover three straight on the road. On the other hand, Troy State is 6-1-1 ATS during its eight-game winning streak
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