Thursday 6/30/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 369829

    #1

    Thursday 6/30/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

    Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

    NFL
    http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 369829

    #2
    Thursday’s games

    National League
    Atlanta (44-32) @ Philadelphia (39-37)
    — Anderson is 1-1, 4.91 in his last three starts.
    — Atlanta is 9-5 in his starts.
    — over 4-2 last six
    — allowed run in first inning: 4-14
    — record in first 5 innings: 8-1-5
    — He is 1-0, 3.07 in five starts vs Philly.

    — Braves won 21 of their last 26 games.
    — Atlanta is 20-15 on road.
    — under 8-4 last dozen games
    — scored run in first inning: 20-76
    — record in first 5 innings: 40-27-9
    — bullpen IP last 3 days: x-3.1-2

    — Nola is 1-1, 0.90 in his last four starts.
    — Phillies are 5-1 in his last six starts
    — under 3-0 last three
    — allowed run in first inning: 1-15
    — record in first 5 innings: 7-4-4
    — He is 13-8, 3.21 in 26 starts vs Atlanta.

    — Phillies are 3-5 in their last eight games.
    — Philly is 19-19 at home.
    — over 22-13-1 last 36 games
    — scored run in first inning: 20-75
    — record in first 5 innings: 30-34-11
    — bullpen IP last 3 days: x-2.2-2.1

    Milwaukee (44-33) @ Pittsburgh (30-45)
    — Houser is 1-3, 6.75 in his last four starts.
    — Milwaukee is 5-9 in his starts
    — under 3-1 last four
    — allowed run in first inning: 6-14
    — record in first 5 innings: 4-8-2
    — He is 3-3, 3.86 in eight starts vs Pittsburgh.

    — Brewers won five of last six games.
    — Milwaukee is 25-18 on road.
    — over 5-0-2 last seven games
    — scored run in first inning: 27-77
    — record in first 5 innings: 32-30-15
    — bullpen IP last 3 days: x-4-4.2

    — Brubaker is 1-1, 3.12 in his last three starts.
    — Pirates are 6-9 in his starts.
    — under 6-3 last nine
    — allowed run in first inning: 4-15
    — record in first 5 innings: 3-10-2
    — He is 1-2, 4.15 in five starts vs Milwaukee.

    — Pirates are 2-6 in their last eight games.
    — Pittsburgh is 17-20 at home.
    — under 3-1 last four games
    — scored run in first inning: 18-75
    — record in first 5 innings: 25-36-14
    — bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-2-5

    Cincinnati (26-48) @ Cubs (29-46)
    — Ashcraft is 1-0, 4.24 in three road starts.
    — Reds are 6-1 in his starts.
    — under 5-2
    — allowed run in first inning: 2-7
    — record in first 5 innings: 4-1-2
    — He hasn’t pitched against Chicago.

    — Reds lost nine of last 13 games.
    — Cincinnati is 14-25 on road.
    — over 6-2 last eight games
    — scored run in first inning: 19-74
    — record in first 5 innings: 22-40-12
    — bullpen IP last 3 days: x-3-4

    — Hendricks is 1-1, 4.15 in his last four starts.
    — Cubs are 4-4 in his home starts.
    — under 7-2 last nine
    — allowed run in first inning: 5-14
    — record in first 5 innings: 5-5-4
    — He is 7-6, 4.47 in 23 starts vs Cincinnati.

    — Cubs are 11-22 in their last 33 games.
    — Cubs are 14-26 at home.
    — under 3-2 last five games
    — scored run in first inning: 30-75
    — record in first 5 innings: 28-34-13
    — bullpen IP last 3 days: x-2.2-4

    San Diego (46-31) @ Los Angeles (46-28)
    — Musgrove is 4-1, 2.03 in his last six starts.
    — Padres are 11-2 in his starts.
    — over 3-1 last four
    — allowed run in first inning: 3-13
    — record in first 5 innings: 9-2-2
    — He is 0-4, 4.26 in six starts vs Los Angeles.

    — Padres lost four of last six games.
    — San Diego is 25-15 on road.
    — under 8-5 last thirteen games.
    — scored run in first inning: 22-77
    — record in first 5 innings: 40-24-3
    — bullpen IP last 3 days: x-2.2-3

    — White is 0-1, 3.98 in five starts.
    — Dodgers are 2-3 in his starts.
    — over 3-2
    — allowed run in first inning: 1-5
    — record in first 5 innings: 1-3-1
    — He threw a scoreless inning in relief vs San Diego.

    — Dodgers are 7-4 in their last eleven games.
    — Los Angeles is 20-12 at home.
    — under 4-1-1 last six games
    — scored run in first inning: 25-74
    — record in first 5 innings: 43-20-11
    — bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-4-3.2

    American League
    Minnesota (43-35) @ Cleveland (38-34)
    — Archer is 2-1, 1.96 in his last five starts.
    — Minnesota is 7-7 in his starts.
    — under 4-0-1 last five
    — allowed run in first inning: 3-14
    — record in first 5 innings: 7-4-3
    — He is 0-7, 5.87 in seven starts vs Cleveland.

    — Minnesota is 10-9 in its last 19 games.
    — Twins are 20-18 on road.
    — under 10-6-1 last seventeen games
    — scored run in first inning: 28-79
    — record in first 5 innings: 43-26-10
    — bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-5-4.2

    — Bieber is 1-1, 3.16 in his last five starts.
    — Cleveland is 9-5 in his starts.
    — under 3-1 last four
    — allowed run in first inning: 1-14
    — record in first 5 innings: 7-4-3
    — He is 5-1, 3.46 in 12 starts vs Minnesota.

    — Guardians are 2-6 in their last eight games.
    — Cleveland is 18-15 at home.
    — over 7-4 last eleven games.
    — scored run in first inning: 22-72
    — record in first 5 innings: 26-29-17
    — bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-7.2-2

    New York (56-20) @ Houston (47-27)
    — Severino is 0-1, 4.76 in his last three starts.
    — New York is 9-4 in his starts.
    — under 5-1 last six
    — allowed run in first inning: 2-13
    — record in first 5 innings: 6-3-4
    — He is 2-2, 3.98 in five starts vs Houston.

    — New York is 16-4 in their last 20 games.
    — New York is 22-11 on road.
    — under 3-1-2 last six games
    — scored run in first inning: 27-76
    — record in first 5 innings: 41-17-18
    — bullpen IP last 3 days: 2.1-3.1-4

    — Garcia is 2-2, 4.13 in his last five starts.
    — Astros are 8-5 in his starts.
    — under 7-2-1 last ten
    — allowed run in first inning: 4-13
    — record in first 5 innings: 8-4-1
    — He is 0-0, 5.79 in one start vs New York.

    — Astros won 11 of their last 15 games.
    — Houston is 20-11 at home.
    — under 3-1-1 last five games
    — scored run in first inning: 24-74
    — record in first 5 innings: 43-21-10
    — bullpen IP last 3 days: x-1-1

    Tampa Bay (40-34) @ Toronto (42-33)
    — Springs is 1-0, 2.91 in his last four starts.
    — Tampa Bay is 8-2 in his starts.
    — under 7-2-1
    — allowed run in first inning: 1-10
    — record in first 5 innings: 3-2-5
    — He is 1-0, 3.07 in eight games (1 start) vs Toronto.

    — Tampa Bay is 4-3 in its last seven games.
    — Rays are 15-17 on road.
    — over 4-1-2 last seven games
    — scored run in first inning: 21-74
    — record in first 5 innings: 35-23-16
    — bullpen IP last 3 days: x-3.1-4.2

    — Kikuchi is 0-3, 11.15 in his last five starts.
    — Toronto is 4-10 in his starts.
    — over 6-0 last six
    — allowed run in first inning: 5-14
    — record in first 5 innings: 3-9-2
    — He is 2-0, 1.38 in two starts vs Tampa Bay.

    — Blue Jays are 6-9 in their last 15 games.
    — Toronto is 23-15 at home.
    — over 27-7 last 34 games
    — scored run in first inning: 30-75
    — record in first 5 innings: 32-27-16
    — bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-4-3

    A’s (25-52) @ Seattle (36-41)
    — Martinez blanked Detroit for 5.1 IP in his first MLB start.
    — A’s are 1-0 in his starts.
    — under 1-0
    — allowed run in first inning: 0-1
    — record in first 5 innings: 1-0
    — He hasn’t pitched against Seattle.

    — A’s are 11-33 in their last 44 games.
    — Oakland is 17-24 on road.
    — under 9-5-2 last sixteen games
    — scored run in first inning: 21-77
    — record in first 5 innings: 23-42-12
    — bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-2-1

    — Gilbert is 3-1, 2.66 in his last four starts.
    — Seattle is 5-1 in his last six starts.
    — under 6-2-1 last nine
    — allowed run in first inning: 2-15
    — record in first 5 innings: 9-5-1
    — He is 0-0, 3.93 in four starts vs Oakland.

    — Mariners are 7-2 in their last nine games.
    — Seattle is 17-19 at home.
    — under 12-5-1 last eighteen games
    — scored run in first inning: 22-77
    — record in first 5 innings: 28-36-13
    — bullpen IP last 3 days: 5-2-3
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    Comment

    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 369829

      #3
      Belmont Park Picks - Thursday, June 30, 2022

      Race 1: 3-1/1A-7-5
      Race 2: 5-2-4-6
      Race 3: 7-2-5-3
      Race 4: 2-3-6-1/1A
      Race 5: 10-5-3-6
      Race 6: 5-1-2-10
      Race 7: 7-3-5-2
      Race 8: 10-7-1-2
      Race 9: 9-4-2-3
      **Most Likely: Olympic Dreams #10 (Race 5)**
      **Best Value: Jazz Time Girl #9 (Race 9)**
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      Comment

      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 369829

        #4
        Belterra Park Picks - Thursday, June 30, 2022

        Race 1: 2-1-3-6
        Race 2: 8-10-6-7
        Race 3: 2-3-5-4
        Race 4: 3-2-7-5
        Race 5: 3-4-5-6
        Race 6: 4-8-7-2
        Race 7: 3-8-6-10
        Race 8: 2-10-6-9
        **Most Likely Winner: Midnight Mikey #3 (Race 4)**
        **Best Value: Snake Bite #8 (Race 2)**
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        Comment

        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 369829

          #5
          Charles Town Picks - Thursday, June 30, 2022

          Race 1: 7-3-2-1
          Race 2: 6-7-1-2
          Race 3: 2-5-7-1
          Race 4: 7-2-1-4
          Race 5: 7-2-1-8
          Race 6: 6-1-2-5
          Race 7: 6-5-1-2
          Race 8: 9-10-4-5
          **Most Likely Winner: Forever The Boss #6 (Race 2)**
          **Best Value: Whatapunch #6 (Race 6)**
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          Comment

          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 369829

            #6
            Churchill Downs Picks - Thursday, June 30, 2022

            Race 1: 4-7-1-2
            Race 2: 1/1A-5-4-7
            Race 3: 4-2-6-1
            Race 4: 6-5-3-7
            Race 5: 3-9-6-2
            Race 6: 4-5-6-3
            Race 7: 1-7-4-2
            Race 8: 8-9-4-3
            **Most Likely: Beverly's Charge #4 (Race 1)**
            **Best Value: Miss Everything #8 (Race 8)**
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            Comment

            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 369829

              #7
              Gulfstream Park Picks - Thursday, June 30, 2022

              Race 1: 1-7-2-6
              Race 2: 7-6-3-4
              Race 3: 6-7-1-3
              Race 4: 4-7-3-1
              Race 5: 8-4-1-5
              Race 6: 3-2-4-6
              Race 7: 7-6-1-5
              Race 8: 4-9-8-3
              **Most Likely Winner: Grand Player #6 (Race 3)**
              **Best Value: Sweet Penelope #4 (Race 4)**
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              Comment

              • Can'tPickAWinner
                Super Moderator
                • Nov 2012
                • 369829

                #8
                Tampa Bay Downs Picks - Thursday, June 30, 2022

                Race 1: 5-8-2-6
                Race 2: 4-6-3-2
                Race 3: 6-3-8-7
                Race 4: 8-3-6-2
                Race 5: 3-4-2-8
                Race 6: 7-3-8-6
                Race 7: 8-1-2-6
                Race 8: 3-8-5-1
                **Most Likely: Influencing #4 (Race 2)**
                **Best Value: Byzantine Empire #3 (Race 5)**
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                Comment

                • Can'tPickAWinner
                  Super Moderator
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 369829

                  #9
                  Woodbine Picks - Thursday, June 30, 2022

                  Race 1: 6-3-2-4
                  Race 2: 5-4-3-6
                  Race 3: 1-5-6-3
                  Race 4: 11-5-1-7
                  Race 5: 8-2-4-7
                  Race 6: 2-1-5-4
                  Race 7: 5-7-2-1
                  Race 8: 5-4-3-8
                  **Most Likely Winner: Twelfth Moon #2 (Race 6)**
                  **Best Value: Point To The Stars #11 (Race 4)**
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                  Comment

                  • Can'tPickAWinner
                    Super Moderator
                    • Nov 2012
                    • 369829

                    #10
                    Belmont Park Picks: Conquer the World a price play on June 30
                    By J.N. Campbell


                    Belmont Park Picks - Thursday, June 30, 2022

                    Race 1: 3-1/1A-7-5
                    Race 2: 5-2-4-6
                    Race 3: 7-2-5-3
                    Race 4: 2-3-6-1/1A
                    Race 5: 10-5-3-6
                    Race 6: 5-1-2-10
                    Race 7: 7-3-5-2
                    Race 8: 10-7-1-2
                    Race 9: 9-4-2-3
                    **Most Likely: Olympic Dreams #10 (Race 5)**
                    **Best Value: Jazz Time Girl #9 (Race 9)**

                    Most Likely Winner: (Race 5: Olympic Dreams #10, 3/1):

                    Trainer Christophe Clement continues to have a strong Belmont Meet, and he has a pair of uncoupled runners that are entered in this NY bred spot. I like his 1st time starter, a colt by Medaglia d’Oro. This homebred debuts for a barn that spends a pretty penny when it comes to workout riders. Clement expects results, and let’s face it, he wins quite a clip in situations like these. With expert rider Joel Rosario in the irons, he could notch another win in Elmont. This runner speaks "turf."

                    Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #10



                    Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 9: Jazz Time Girl #9, 6/1):

                    The Thursday finale is one of those difficult turf sprints with a large field. If you can nab a winner in this spot, then your handicapping skills are complete. Indeed, you are powerful … If you like the trainer-jockey combo angle, then look no further than Mike Maker when he gets together with Dylan Davis. This pair are magic, and I will be interested to see how it works out this time around. Davis will be aboard a filly by Temple City. She was moderately priced last time at Keeneland in one of their SMW100k events. That is a tough crowd, and I am not surprised that she ended up finishing poorly. Do not write this 3-yr-old off though … She can take to the turf, and I think sprinting is what she was meant to do. If she is even close to 5/1, I am betting her with both hands.

                    Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS # ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)



                    Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 8: Turf, 1 3/8, ALLW92kn1x, 3+):

                    The “spotlight” shines on this turf event. We have a nice field drawn, and a good bit of cash will certainly be flowing towards Graham Motion’s Easter #7. This gelding by Exosphere (AUS) is built to go longer on the grass. The last time he showed his mug at Belmont, it was against expert runners like Yibir (GB) and Gufo. Interestingly enough, the other half of Motion’s uncoupled entry, Highland Chief, won the day. Talk about an upset … Flavien Prat was aboard for Madaket Stables that afternoon, and will be again. I want no part of his short price, even though he can make mincemeat out of this field. I much prefer a runner like Todd Pletcher’s Conquer the World #10. By Curlin, the 4-yr-old might not look like he has an inviting record, but that shouldn’t dissuade you from giving him a try. Not only does the HOF trainer pair with Luis Saez, but he clearly wanted no part of that yielding course last time out at Belmont. Don’t forget that he was 4th, just behind Motion’s fave in an ALLW Co. race at Aqueduct in mid-April. I think he will enjoy getting back to this distance, and his price will be superb. Most of the money is going to also fill the coffers of Peter Brant’s Balthus #1. Chad Brown turfers are perennially overbet, so spurning this one … tread at your own risk. I am not convinced this gelding by the great Galileo (IRE) is ready for this class jump. Manny Franco is an average lawn jockey, so let’s include his mount … just not on top. My wager that I have constructed is …

                    Wagering Recommendation: $2 Trifecta Wheel, 10 w 1/7 w 1/7
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                    Comment

                    • Can'tPickAWinner
                      Super Moderator
                      • Nov 2012
                      • 369829

                      #11
                      Tampa Bay Downs Picks: Turf edition as racing returns on June 30
                      By J.N. Campbell


                      Tampa Bay Downs Picks - Thursday, June 30, 2022

                      Race 1: 5-8-2-6
                      Race 2: 4-6-3-2
                      Race 3: 6-3-8-7
                      Race 4: 8-3-6-2
                      Race 5: 3-4-2-8
                      Race 6: 7-3-8-6
                      Race 7: 8-1-2-6
                      Race 8: 3-8-5-1
                      **Most Likely: Influencing #4 (Race 2)**
                      **Best Value: Byzantine Empire #3 (Race 5)**

                      Most Likely Winner: (Race 2: Influencing #4, 5/2):

                      The days when trainer Tom Proctor ruled the Gulf Coast seem like a distant memory, but the venerable conditioner is still plying his trade. This filly by Tapit is ready to get back to the Tampa turf after running against tougher company down at Gulfstream Park a couple pf weeks ago. A homebred, she should be ready to rate. Jockey Keiber Coa continues to see his share of action. I cannot imagine anyone in this race rivaling this team. Proctor still has some of that old magic present.

                      Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #4



                      Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 5: Byzantine Empire #3, 12/1):

                      Patty Burns owns and trains this filly by Air Force Blue. She is set to make her ’22 debut, and I want to back this runner coming off-the-bench. She will be carrying more weight (124), and sometimes that means that she has an advantage. That sounds like specious reasoning, but it is actually not. Last year, on debut at Colonial Downs, she never had the chance to do that much running. This could be a budding star … you will never get to bet her at this price … take what the tote is giving you …

                      Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #3 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)



                      Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 7: Turf, 5F, Clm16kn2L, F&M 3+):

                      The speedsters will be out in this “claiming game” race, and when it comes to the tote, they will be trying to catch M/L odds favorite, Rasmalai #1. Trained by Antonio Cordero, this mare by Commissioner will be getting back to the turf, after competing on the MT @TAM. It is not a foregone conclusion that she will “win” in what amounts to a dropdown in class. I am not sure that 6/5 is really deserved. When it comes to grass sprint races, I am always on the lookout for an entry with some hidden talent. Nancy Harris’ Gregs Posse #8 hasn’t tried the turf but once in ’22, and that was going 1-mile at Tampa. The last time we saw this daughter of Posse, it was on the AW at Gulfstream Park. That was a much tougher race than this one. Running at the Stronach “race place” can harden a speed demon, and I like the price on this one … 10/1. If Jose Alonso can take advantage of that outside post, then that could serve as an edge. When you are drawn towards the extreme, you can avoid traffic troubles … thus, playing your own game. The Harris entry could be making some money moves in the end, all the way to the winner’s circle. Here is the bet …

                      Wagering Recommendation: $2 Exacta Cold, 8/1
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                      Comment

                      • Can'tPickAWinner
                        Super Moderator
                        • Nov 2012
                        • 369829

                        #12
                        TimeformUS Belmont Horses in Focus for Thursday, June 30, 2022
                        David Aragona

                        RACE 4: MUSICAL AMERICA (#5)

                        #2 Crypto Cash will probably win this race as a heavy favorite, but I have some reservations. He’s going to take money based on that 92 Beyer he earned last time out, and I have some doubts about that number since it was a career-best for each of the top three finishers. TimeformUS has the race much slower (98), which is more in line with Crypto Cash’s prior efforts. He’s been in solid form recently, and has finished in the exacta in six of his last seven starts. However, I just think he may get overbet as he was claimed back by Rob Atras. It's also hard for me to ignore the likely pace scenario, as the TimeformUS Pace Projector depicts the favorite towards the back of the pack in a situation favoring the front-runner. That early leader is likely to be #5 Musical America, who figures to be the longest shot in this field. Many will dismiss him based on his recent results, but he’s run better than it might appear in a few of those races. Though he was only claimed for $10k by these connections, he didn’t run that badly when immediately stepped up into a $62,500 optional claimer in his next start. He also held his own at the $32k level two back after failing to make the lead over some superior rivals. His last effort was poor, but that was a very hot pace for the distance, as all of the speeds fell apart in what was a fast race for the level. Given the favorable pace setup, I think he can rebound here for connections who deliver with longshots from time to time.

                        :: Get TimeformUS PPs for these races at Belmont

                        RACE 5: CONQUIST (#9)

                        Both Christophe Clement runners figure to attract support in this New York-bred maiden special weight event, but I can’t say that I’m convinced either one is worth taking at a short price. #5 Topic Changer is the one with experience, having closed for second in a maiden-claiming event on debut. He didn’t get a particularly strong speed figure for the effort, and finished far behind the winner while just barely edging out some inferior rivals. He has to do better to contend here. #10 Olympic Dreams is perhaps more interesting as a first-time starter for a barn that does well with these types. However, it’s not really a turf pedigree, as his dam achieved all of her wins on the main track, and his lone sibling is dirt runner Frost Me. That said, he is by Medaglia d’Oro so he does have a right to handle this surface. It won’t be a shock if he fares well here, but I don’t need him as the potential favorite. I’m interested in a couple of runners trying this surface for the first time. The more logical of the two is #6 Compromiser, who merely has to transfer his solid dirt debut performance to the grass. That’s often easier said than done, but he does have pedigree to handle turf, being a half-brother to two grass winners. He lacked speed in his debut, but was really finishing with interest, as Trakus caught him getting his final quarter in 23.51 seconds. He goes out for low-profile connections, but he appears to have real ability in a race where others have yet to prove their quality. My top pick is #9 Conquist. He obviously has to take a step forward with the surface switch, but I’ve been waiting for this colt to get a chance on the grass. Nyquist is just a mediocre turf influence, getting 10 percent turf winners overall, and there’s limited pedigree on the dam’s side. Yet this horse just moves like one that should take to turf. He has a big, loping stride that should lend itself well to stretching out on the grass. I would have liked to see him run a bit better in his return last time, but John Kimmel doesn’t do that well off layoffs. Kimmel is, however, 5 for 33 (15%, $4.83 ROI) with maidens trying turf for the first time over the past five years. There isn’t much speed in this field, so he should be able to get to the front end through moderate fractions, and I’ll find out if he can handle turf at a square price.

                        RACE 8: BALTHUS (#1)

                        #7 Easter figures to be pretty tough as he drops out of the Grade 1 Man o’ War into this N1X allowance event. He actually ran pretty well in that graded stakes test, finishing just 2 3/4 lengths behind Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Yibir. That was going today’s 1 3/8 miles distance, and he earned a speed figure that towers over this field. I am a little concerned that his performance last time is somewhat attributable to the nature of turf racing, in which inferior horses can get carried along to faster numbers by superior competition. However, he had also shown ability in his stateside debut when closing to get up for third against a tougher field at this level. He makes plenty of sense, but I wouldn’t want to take too short a price given my minor reservations. #2 Q F Seventy Five should play out as the one to catch. It’s a little surprising to see him stretching out in distance after he ran off in the early going at nine furlongs last time. He surely ran the best race that day, as the pace was on the quick side, but he paid the price for those enterprising tactics. Joel Rosario has to get him to settle better this time, but he’s clearly in great form right now and is due to break through at this level. My top pick is #1 Balthus. I can’t say I love him in this spot, but it just feels like he’s a horse who has been slow to come around for Chad Brown. His first couple of starts were pretty poor, but he’s really improved since getting gelded over the winter. I thought he closed well to just miss two back, and he was much the best last time, when running to the wire dueling with a riderless horse well ahead of the pack. The further stretch-out in distance should suit this son of Galileo and he’s drawn well inside. I would want a square price on him, and this barn does take money, but it feels like the two aforementioned runners have to be shorter on the tote board.
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                        • Can'tPickAWinner
                          Super Moderator
                          • Nov 2012
                          • 369829

                          #13
                          Robin Goodfellow's racing tips: Best bets for Thursday, June 30
                          By Sam Turner For The Daily Mail

                          Sportsmail's racing expert Robin Goodfellow delivers his tips for Thursday's meetings Haydock, Perth, Epsom, Yarmouth and Newbury.

                          Haydock

                          ROBIN GOODFELLOW


                          1.00 Lotus Rose

                          1.30 Bookmark

                          2.00 Sharp Combo

                          2.30 Moltisanti

                          3.00 Beluga Gold

                          3.30 Aristobulus

                          4.00 Hamaki (nap)

                          GIMCRACK


                          1.00 Boudica Bay

                          1.30 Greek Flame

                          2.00 Soulcombe

                          2.30 Captain Winters

                          3.00 Thunder Legend (nap)

                          3.30 Substantial

                          4.00 Knight Of Honour

                          Newmarket – 3.30 Substantial (nap); 4.00 Broadspear (nb)


                          Perth

                          ROBIN GOODFELLOW

                          1.40 Noble Birth

                          2.10 Go Bob Go

                          2.40 Ash Tree Meadow

                          3.10 Copperwell

                          3.40 School Lane

                          4.10 Cardboard Gangster

                          4.40 Iron Heart

                          GIMCRACK

                          1.40 Noble Birth

                          2.10 Release The Kraken

                          2.40 Ash Tree Meadow

                          3.10 Kayfast Warrior

                          3.40 Golden Taipan

                          4.10 Big Difference

                          4.40 Iron Heart



                          Epsom

                          ROBIN GOODFELLOW

                          6.01 Songo

                          6.36 Self Praise

                          7.11 Bowman

                          7.45 Larado

                          8.15 Curtiz

                          8.50 Night Eagle

                          GIMCRACK

                          6.01 Songo

                          6.36 In The Storm

                          7.11 Papa Cocktail

                          7.45 Secret Strength

                          8.15 Hyanna

                          8.50 Myriad

                          Northerner – 7.45 Bin Hayyan (nb); 8.15 Sagauteur (nap)


                          Yarmouth

                          ROBIN GOODFELLOW

                          1.50 True Courage

                          2.20 Mighty Mind

                          2.50 Lord Uhtred

                          3.20 Ikhtiraaq

                          3.50 Islay Of Anglesey

                          4.20 Lelabad

                          4.50 The Grey Lass

                          GIMCRACK

                          1.50 Franco Grasso

                          2.20 Big Little Lie

                          2.50 Princeville

                          3.20 Western Writer

                          3.50 Rogue Star

                          4.20 Smitten

                          4.50 Mr Fayez



                          Newbury

                          ROBIN GOODFELLOW

                          5.20 Navy Drums

                          5.53 Clochette

                          6.28 Chaldean

                          7.03 Crazy Luck (nb)

                          7.38 Admiralty House

                          8.08 Wonder Starelzaam

                          8.40 Aldbourne

                          GIMCRACK

                          5.20 Taaqat

                          5.53 Statu Of Liberty

                          6.28 Sunningdale

                          7.03 Noya (nb)

                          7.38 Admiralty House

                          8.08 Precisely

                          8.40 Queen Of Comedy
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                          • Can'tPickAWinner
                            Super Moderator
                            • Nov 2012
                            • 369829

                            #14
                            AI Picks: Gulfstream Rainbow 6 Mandatory Payout | Thurs.

                            June 29, 2022 | By 1/ST BET

                            Florida law requires its racetracks to clean out the carryovers each June 30 to end the fiscal calendar. Horseplayers benefit Thursday at Gulfstream Park with $131,154 in carryover money to sweeten the Rainbow 6 mandatory payout.

                            To assist your handicapping, top selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections.

                            You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. Full-card selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app. We’ve included the official track morning line odds with each runner.

                            Gulfstream Park // Race 3 // 1:35 pm ET // maiden claimer

                            #6 Grand Player (7-5) // 31%W
                            #7 Go Home Happy (7-2) // 17%W
                            #5 Redjack (20-1) // 13%W
                            #1 Celestial Glaze (3-1) // 10%W

                            Gulfstream Park // Race 4 // 2:07 pm ET // claiming

                            #2 Chutzpah (4-1) // 27%W
                            #5 Everthree (9-2) // 18%W
                            #6 Takestwotowiggle (12-1) // 16%W
                            #3 Elliereeseaston(7-2) // 13%W

                            Gulfstream Park // Race 5 // 2:39 pm ET // maiden special weight

                            #8 Madeforsummer (5-2) // %W
                            #5 Love My Job (6-1) // %W
                            #2 Kitten’s Appeal (8-1) // 11%W
                            #3 Temerity (5-1) // 11%W

                            Gulfstream Park // Race 6 // 3:11 pm ET // claiming

                            #6 Boss Lady Kim (7-2) // 30%W
                            #7 Perfect Provision (4-1) // 15%W
                            #4 Sound Sinai (5-1) // 15%W
                            #1 Kingston Queen (6-1) // 15%W

                            Gulfstream Park// Race 7 // 3:44 pm ET // starter allowance

                            #4 Old Time Revival (8-1) // 28%W
                            #6 Smiling Teufles (5-2) // 14%W
                            #2 Rough Entry (4-1) // 14%W
                            #1 Joe Di Baggio (9-2) // 13%W

                            Gulfstream Park // Race 8 // 4:15 pm ET // starter optional claiming

                            #2 Panorama Truck (6-1) // 31%W
                            #9 Quantum Theory (7-2) // 16%W
                            #3 Valiant Avenger (9-2) // 12%W
                            #8 Star Shopping (4-1) // 8%W
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                            • Can'tPickAWinner
                              Super Moderator
                              • Nov 2012
                              • 369829

                              #15
                              Gulfstream 5 Facts | June 28-July 3, 2022

                              June 28, 2022 | By 1/ST BET

                              Schedule:

                              Thursday-Sunday

                              Carryovers:

                              $131,154 // Mandatory Payout Rainbow 6 (Thursday)

                              $2,074 // Super High-5 (Thursday)

                              Feature Race(s):

                              Grade 2 $250,000 Princess Rooney // distaff sprinters // Saturday

                              Grade 3 $100,000 Smile Sprint // sprinters // Saturday

                              $100,000 Bob Umphrey Sprint // Tapeta sprinters // Sunday

                              Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

                              Last Late Pace (39%, +$108.40)

                              Speed Last Race (36%, +$89.80)

                              Last Turn Time (21%, +$59.40)

                              Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

                              T: Jose Francisco D’Angelo // 10: 6-1-0 (60%, $4.01 ROI) // winners paid $4, $6, $6, $7, $9, $47 // 2-2 with Edgar Perez

                              T: Jose Pinchin // 2: 2-0-0 (100%, $12.30 ROI) // $7, $41 winners // both claiming sprints // 0-16 at GP since April 29 prior

                              T: Cesar Figueroa // 2: 1-1-0 (50%, $1.65 ROI) // first local win since May 12 (only 6 starts in that span)

                              J: Edgar Perez // 9: 5-0-2 (56%, $3.80 ROI) // 10-29 last 2 weeks // 2-2 with favorites + $41 score

                              J: Emisael Jaramillo // 19: 4-2-3 (21%, $0.85 ROI) // 1-6 with favorites // all 4 wins in claiming routes

                              ** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**
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