Sunday 7/3/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2022, 08:16 AM

Belmont Park Picks - Sunday, July 3, 2022

Race 1:
Race 2:
Race 3:
Race 4:
Race 5:
Race 6:
Race 7:
Race 8:
Race 9:
**Most Likely: # (Race )**
**Best Value: # (Race )**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2022, 08:17 AM

Sunday’s games

National League
Miami (36-40) @ Washington (29-51)
— Lopez is 1-2, 6.75 in his last three starts.
— Miami is 4-7 in his last 11 starts.
— over 5-0 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 8-15
— record in first 5 innings: 7-4-4
— He is 1-0, 3.00 in two starts vs Washington this year.

— Miami is 4-4 in its last eight games.
— Marlins are 22-21 on road.
— under 3-0-1 last four games.
— scored run in first inning: 14-76
— record in first 5 innings: 28-32-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-4-4

— Fedde is 1-1, 2.76 in his last three starts.
— Nationals are 9-6 in his starts.
— over 4-2 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 2-15
— record in first 5 innings: 6-8-1
— He is 4-1, 1.70 in eight starts vs Miami.

— Washington lost its last three games.
— Nationals are 14-29 at home.
— under 5-2-1 last eight games.
— scored run in first inning: 27-80
— record in first 5 innings: 25-46-9
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-3.1-5

Atlanta (46-33) @ Cincinnati (26-51)
— Morton is 0-0, 1.83 in his last two starts.
— Atlanta is 8-2 in his last ten starts.
— over 12-3
— allowed run in first inning: 9-15
— record in first 5 innings: 8-6-1
— He is 7-8, 4.36 in 19 starts vs Cincinnati.

— Braves won 23 of their last 29 games.
— Atlanta is 22-16 on road.
— over 3-2 last five games
— scored run in first inning: 21-79
— record in first 5 innings: 42-28-9
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 6-2-3

— Castillo is 1-1, 3.38 in his last four starts.
— Reds are 4-6 in his starts.
— under 7-3
— allowed run in first inning: 3-10
— record in first 5 innings: 2-5-3
— He is 2-1, 2.57 in four starts vs Atlanta.

— Reds lost 12 of last 16 games.
— Cincinnati is 12-25 at home.
— over 8-3 last eleven games
— scored run in first inning: 19-77
— record in first 5 innings: 22-43-12
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5.2-3-4

Milwaukee (45-35) @ Pittsburgh (32-46)
— Woodruff is 3-1, 3.15 in his last four starts.
— Milwaukee is 7-3 in his starts
— over 5-2 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 1-10
— record in first 5 innings: 5-4-1
— He is 1-0, 3.60 in two starts vs Pittsburgh this year.

— Brewers won six of last nine games.
— Milwaukee is 26-20 on road.
— over 8-0-2 last ten games
— scored run in first inning: 28-80
— record in first 5 innings: 33-32-15
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5.2-3-4.1

— Quintana is 0-0, 3.12 in his last three starts.
— Pirates are 7-8 in his starts.
— over 4-2 last six starts
— allowed run in first inning: 3-15
— record in first 5 innings: 6-6-3
— He is 9-4, 2.74 in 18 starts vs Milwaukee.

— Pirates are 4-7 in their last 11 games.
— Pittsburgh is 19-21 at home.
— over 4-0 last four games
— scored run in first inning: 18-78
— record in first 5 innings: 27-37-14
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-7.1-3

Arizona (35-42) @ Colorado (33-44)
— Gallen is 0-1, 7.83 in his last four starts.
— Arizona is 9-5 in his starts
— over 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 2-14
— record in first 5 innings: 7-3-4
— He is 3-1, 2.11 in eight starts vs Colorado.

— Diamondbacks are 13-20 in last 33 games.
— Arizona is 16-20 on road.
— over 11-5-1 last seventeen games
— scored run in first inning: 19-77
— record in first 5 innings: 26-32-19
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-4-2

— Kuhl is 0-2, 9.18 in his last four starts.
— Rockies are 1-6 in his starts.
— over 5-2
— allowed run in first inning: 3-7
— record in first 5 innings: 1-6
— He is 0-1, 7.07 in three starts vs Arizona.

— Colorado lost seven of last ten games.
— Rockies are 21-21 at home.
— under 10-6-1 last seventeen games.
— scored run in first inning: 23-77
— record in first 5 innings: 25-41-11
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-5.2-7

San Diego (46-34) @ Los Angeles (49-28)
— Gore is 1-2, 7.27 in his last four starts.
— Padres are 6-5 in his starts.
— under 6-5
— allowed run in first inning: 2-11
— record in first 5 innings: 6-3-2
— He hasn’t pitched against the Dodgers.

— Padres lost seven of last nine games.
— San Diego is 25-18 on road.
— under 10-6 last sixteen games.
— scored run in first inning: 23-80
— record in first 5 innings: 40-25-15
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 1-3-2

— Kershaw is 1-1, 4.80 in his last three starts.
— Dodgers are 5-4 in his starts.
— under 4-4-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-9
— record in first 5 innings: 5-2-2
— He is 23-9, 2.08 in 44 starts vs San Diego.

— Dodgers are 10-4 in their last fourteen games.
— Los Angeles is 23-12 at home.
— under 6-2-1 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 26-77
— record in first 5 innings: 44-20-13
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4.1-1.1-2.2

St Louis (44-36) @ Philadelphia (41-38)
— Wainwright is 1-1, 3.96 in his last four starts.
— St Louis is 8-2 in his last 10 starts
— over 3-0-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 5-15
— record in first 5 innings: 7-7-1
— He is 2-2, 3.29 in six starts at Philly.

— Cardinals are 4-3 in their last seven games.
— St Louis is 20-20 on road.
— over 12-7-1 last 20 games
— scored run in first inning: 30-80
— record in first 5 innings: 37-31-12
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-2.2-6.1

— Wheeler is 1-1, 4.08 in his last three starts.
— Phillies are 7-4 in his last 11 starts
— over 5-2 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 2-14
— record in first 5 innings: 7-6-1
— He is 1-2, 4.24 in four starts vs St Louis.

— Phillies are 5-6 in their last 11 games.
— Philly is 21-20 at home.
— over 24-14-1 last 39 games
— scored run in first inning: 20-79
— record in first 5 innings: 31-35-13
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-5-5

American League
Tampa Bay (42-36) @ Toronto (44-35)
— Baz is 0-0, 1.13 in his last three starts.
— Tampa Bay is 0-4 in his starts.
— over 3-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-4
— record in first 5 innings: 2-1-1
— He is 1-0, 3.60 in one start vs Toronto.

— Tampa Bay is 6-5 in its last 11 games.
— Rays are 17-19 on road.
— over 7-2-2 last eleven games
— scored run in first inning: 22-78
— record in first 5 innings: 37-25-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.1-5-6.2

— Stripling is 3-1, 1.75 in his last five starts.
— Toronto is 6-4 in his starts.
— over 3-0 last three
— allowed run in first inning: 2-10
— record in first 5 innings: 5-2-3
— He is 0-2, 3.80 in seven games (2 starts) vs Tampa Bay.

— Blue Jays are 4-3 in their last seven games.
— Toronto is 25-17 at home.
— over 30-8 last 38 games
— scored run in first inning: 31-79
— record in first 5 innings: 34-29-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-4-11.1

Kansas City (28-48) @ Detroit (30-46)
— Singer is 0-2, 4.82 in his last three starts.
— Royals are 3-5 in his starts
— over 5-1-1 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 1-8
— record in first 5 innings: 4-3-1
— He is 4-0, 2.87 in seven starts vs Detroit.

— Kansas City lost five of last seven games.
— Royals are 14-23 on road.
— under 11-4-1 last sixteen games
— scored run in first inning: 21-76
— record in first 5 innings: 24-39-13
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-3-3.2

— Skubal is 0-4, 9.00 in his last four starts.
— Tigers are 7-8 in his starts
— under 8-2-1 last 11
— allowed run in first inning: 4-15
— record in first 5 innings: 5-8-2
— He is 1-4, 3.67 in seven games (5 starts) vs Kansas City

— Tigers lost 12 of their last 18 games.
— Detroit is 19-23 at home.
— last three games under.
— scored run in first inning: 17-76
— record in first 5 innings: 19-44-13
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-4-3

New York (58-21) @ Cleveland (39-36)
— Montgomery is 3-0, 3.23 in his last six starts.
— New York is 9-6 in his starts.
— over 7-1 last eight
— allowed run in first inning: 2-15
— record in first 5 innings: 7-5-3
— He is 0-1, 5.27 in three starts vs Cleveland.

— New York is 18-5 in their last 23 games.
— New York is 24-12 on road.
— under 5-2-2 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 27-79
— record in first 5 innings: 43-18-18
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-2-6

— McKenzie allowed 13 runs in 10.1 IP, in his last two starts.
— Cleveland is 8-5 in his starts.
— under 7-6
— allowed run in first inning: 5-13
— record in first 5 innings: 6-7
— He is 0-0, 6.75 in one start vs New York.

— Guardians are 3-8 in their last 11 games.
— Cleveland is 19-17 at home.
— over 8-6 last 14 games.
— scored run in first inning: 23-75
— record in first 5 innings: 26-32-17
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-3-7

LA Angels (37-44) @ Houston (50-27)
— Suarez is 0-2, 6.14 in five starts.
— Angels are 2-3 in his starts.
— over 4-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-5
— record in first 5 innings: 3-2
— He is 2-3, 5.10 in six starts vs Houston.

— Angels are 10-26 in their last 36 games.
— Angels are 16-20 on road.
— under 14-7-1 last 22 games
— scored run in first inning: 26-80
— record in first 5 innings: 41-31-8
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.1-5-3

— Valdez is 2-0, 2.70 in his last three starts.
— Astros are 9-6 in his starts.
— over 4-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 3-15
— record in first 5 innings: 8-4-3
— He is 1-1, 4.91 in two starts vs Anaheim this year.

— Astros won 14 of their last 18 games.
— Houston is 23-11 at home.
— under 4-3-1 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 25-77
— record in first 5 innings: 46-21-10
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.2-2-3

Baltimore (35-44) @ Minnesota (45-36)
— Wells is 5-0, 2.97 in his last six starts.
— Baltimore is 8-2 in his last ten starts.
— over 4-0-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 4-15
— record in first 5 innings: 6-8-1
— He is 1-0, 2.16 in three games (1 start) vs Minnesota.

— Orioles are 0-4 in their last four games.
— Baltimore is 17-27 on road.
— over 25-17-1 last 43 games.
— scored run in first inning: 15-79
— record in first 5 innings: 26-39-14
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5-2-2

— Smeltzer is 1-0, 0.75 in his last two starts.
— Minnesota is 5-4 in his starts.
— under 2-0-1 last three
— allowed run in first inning: 4-9
— record in first 5 innings: 6-2-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Baltimore.

— Minnesota is 12-10 in its last 22 games.
— Twins are 25-17 at home.
— under 13-6-1 last 20 games
— scored run in first inning: 29-81
— record in first 5 innings: 44-27-10
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4.2-2-4

A’s (26-54) @ Seattle (38-42)
— Montas is 1-2, 4.32 in his last four starts.
— A’s are 3-13 in his starts.
— under 11-4-1
— allowed run in first inning: 6-16
— record in first 5 innings: 3-7-6
— He is 2-2, 2.60 in eight starts vs Seattle.

— A’s are 12-35 in their last 47 games.
— Oakland is 18-26 on road.
— under 12-5-2 last nineteen games
— scored run in first inning: 23-80
— record in first 5 innings: 25-43-12
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.1-3-1.2

— Ray is 1-0, 0.67 in his last three starts.
— Seattle is 9-7 in his starts.
— under 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 3-16
— record in first 5 innings: 5-8-3
— He is 0-1, 3.00 in two starts vs Oakland this year.

— Mariners are 9-3 in their last dozen games.
— Seattle is 19-20 at home.
— under 14-6-1 last 21 games
— scored run in first inning: 23-80
— record in first 5 innings: 29-38-13
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-3-2

Interleague games
Boston (43-35) @ Cubs (32-46)
— Red Sox haven’t named a starter

— Red Sox won 20 of last 28 games.
— Boston is 23-19 on road.
— over 4-2 last six games.
— scored run in first inning: 23-78
— record in first 5 innings: 34-26-18
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-3.1-2

— Thompson is 1-1, 2.45 in his last three starts.
— Cubs are 6-3 in his starts.
— over 4-2 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 3-9
— record in first 5 innings: 5-2-2
— He hasn’t pitched against Boston.

— Cubs are 14-22 in their last 36 games.
— Cubs are 17-26 at home.
— over 4-2 last six games
— scored run in first inning: 31-78
— record in first 5 innings: 30-35-13
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-3.2-8.2

Texas (37-39) @ NY Mets (48-30)
— Gray is 3-0, 1.40 in his last four starts.
— Rangers are 7-6 in his starts.
— over 8-5
— allowed run in first inning: 5-13
— record in first 5 innings: 6-4-3
— He is 1-2, 8.87 in five starts against the Mets.

— Rangers are 8-6 in last 14 games.
— Texas is 20-19 on road.
— under 6-4 last ten games
— scored run in first inning: 19-76
— record in first 5 innings: 27-33-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-4-2.1

— Carrasco is 1-3, 9.68 in his last four starts.
— Mets are 8-7 in his starts.
— over 4-0-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 5-15
— record in first 5 innings: 9-5-1
— He is 3-3, 6.10 in eight starts vs Texas.

— Mets are 1-4 in their last five games.
— Mets are 25-13 at home.
— over 23-12-2 last 37 games.
— scored run in first inning: 30-78
— record in first 5 innings: 40-23-15
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 1.2-3-3.2

White Sox (37-39) @ San Francisco (40-36)
— Giolito is 0-2, 9.56 in his last three starts.
— White Sox are 4-9 in his starts.
— over 6-0 last six starts
— allowed run in first inning: 4-13
— record in first 5 innings: 6-4-2
— He is 0-1, 5.06 in one start vs San Francisco.

— White Sox lost six of their last 10 games.
— Chicago is 19-23 on road.
— under 7-2 last nine
— scored run in first inning: 17-76
— record in first 5 innings: 32-35-9
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2.2-3-4

— Giants haven’t named a starter.

— Giants are 3-9 in their last dozen games.
— San Francisco is 21-19 at home.
— under 13-8-1 last 22 games
— scored run in first inning: 19-75
— record in first 5 innings: 35-28-12
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.1-4-3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2022, 08:17 AM

Churchill Downs Picks - Sunday, July 3, 2022

Race 1: 4-2-7-6
Race 2: 8-3-4-10
Race 3: 2-3-1-5
Race 4: 5-2-8-6
Race 5: 9-2-4-5
Race 6: 8-3-5-2
Race 7: 8-4-11-3
Race 8: 2-3-5-1
Race 9: 11-1-3-6
Race 10: 9-6-11-3
**Most Likely: Solid Tune #8 (Race 2)**
**Best Value: Isthmian #8 (Race 6)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2022, 08:18 AM

Lone Star Park Picks - Sunday, July 3, 2022

Race 1: 4-2-6-3
Race 2: 1-4-6-2
Race 3: 3-2-5-4
Race 4: 6-8-5-2
Race 5: 5-2-7-8
Race 6: 6-7-4-8
Race 7: 1-7-3-6
Race 8: 3-1-6-5
Race 9: 4-6-1-11
**Most Likely: Lovely Lady Lexi #3 (Race 3)**
**Best Value: Bling On The Light #6 (Race 4)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2022, 08:18 AM

Monmouth Park Picks - Sunday, July 3, 2022

Race 1: 5-1-2-4
Race 2: 1-7-6-3
Race 3: 6-5-7-2
Race 4: 5-1-2-7
Race 5: 5-2-6-7
Race 6: 1-6-4-2
Race 7: 8-1-2-9
Race 8: 6-7-3-1
Race 9: 6-8-4-1
Race 10: 7-1-6-5
**Most Likely Winner: Bakeneko #1 (Race 2)**
**Best Value: Tapit's Girl #6 (Race 9)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2022, 08:18 AM

Mountaineer Park Picks - Sunday, July 3, 2022

Race 1: 8-2-6-5
Race 2: 1-8-2-5
Race 3: 6-4-1-7
Race 4: 2-7-6-5
Race 5: 6-1-3-4
Race 6: 6-5-3-4
Race 7: 6-5-2-4
Race 8: 9-5-6-8
**Most Likely Winner: Fait Accompli #6 (Race 3)**
**Best Value: Thirsty Gal #8 (Race 1)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2022, 08:19 AM

Woodbine Picks - Sunday, July 3, 2022

Race 1: 2-6-5-4
Race 2: 9-1-5-2
Race 3: 4-10-1-5
Race 4: 4-9-2-3
Race 5: 11-10-7-3
Race 6: 8-5-1-6
Race 7: 4-9-8-1
Race 8: 6-4-10-11
Race 9: 7-8-1-3
Race 10: 8-3-11-10
**Most Likely Winner: Gaston #4 (Race 7)**
**Best Value: Lapochka #4 (Race 4)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2022, 08:19 AM

Belmont Horses in Focus for Sunday, July 3
Posted on July 2, 2022 by David Aragona

RACE 1: CERTIFIED LOVERBOY (#1)

$275k yearling purchase #2 Lost Ark is out of a dirt route stakes-winning dam who has produced 4 winners from 5 foals to race, topped by G1 Santa Anita Handicap winner Idol and G1 Belmont Stakes runner-up Nest. Both of those accomplished siblings are sired by Curlin, and this colt is 19% juvenile debut sire Violence. Todd Pletcher is 9 for 24 (38%, $1.45 ROI) with 2-year-old first time starters in 5F to 5.5F on dirt at Belmont over the past 5 years. It’s a little curious to see a horse with this damside pedigree make his debut sprinting in July, but he’s by a sire of precocity. That fast June 26 gate work signals that there’s ability here, and he’s the one to beat. I’m taking a shot against him with #1 Certified Loverboy. A $230k yearling purchase, he’s by Grade 1 BC Juvenile Turf winner and G1 Travers runner-up Mendelssohn, who is 0 for 7 with his first time starters in his first crop. The dam went 0 for 2 and her only foal to race is stakes-placed Juror Number Four. The dam is a half-sister to a couple of dirt stakes winners in Japan, including G3 Saudi Derby 3rd-place finisher Consigliere. Ray Handal is 6 for 23 (26%, $2.95 ROI) with first time starters in dirt sprints over the past 2 years. He sports some pretty quick workouts for the debut, and reportedly outworked talented 4-year-old Disco Pharoah in that June 13 drill.

RACE 2: REGINA (#2)

I don’t have a strong argument against #7 Quaria Thunder’s recent form. She ran has run well in each of her turf starts for Mike Maker, just getting nailed on the wire on both occasions. The horse who defeated her last time did work out a perfect trip to do so, but she did elevate the effort a bit when she came back to beat winners in her next start. Quaria thunder should play out as the controlling speed here, and that may be enough to put her in the winner’s circle against a lackluster field. I’m not particularly fond of anyone else with turf form. #1 Requestforproposal wasn’t very good in Chad Brown’s barn and had no excuse as the 3-5 favorite last time. I respect the job that David Duggan does, but I just don’t think this filly has much ability. I’m more interested in first time turfer #2 Regina. This filly returns from a layoff with some potential to improve. She’s obviously light on speed figures, but I think both of her prior efforts are stronger than they appear. She actually had some speed in her debut before abruptly dropping back at the half-mile pole in a race she probably needed. Then last time stretching out to a mile she was just beaten by a couple of superior horses. Winner Candy Light returned to finish second in a stakes with a 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Furthermore, the second and fourth-place finishers from that affair won their next starts with improved speed figures. Turf is obviously a question, but she’s by Empire Maker out of a Giant’s Causeway more who handled turf, so it’s conceivable that she’ll handle this surface. She’s certainly found a pretty soft spot to try grass.

RACE 5: WINFROMWITHIN (#7)

This optional claimer is the race of the day, as you can make a case for many runners in this wide open event. Arguably the most intriguing member of this field is #8 Ocala Dream, who came through with a breakout performance second of the layoff last time when beating a strong field in the Kingston. He traveled well every step of the way and produced a nice turn of foot in the stretch to slam the door on that field. A repeat of that 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure makes him dangerous here, but repeating that career-best effort may be easier said than done. #1 Floriform is a logical alternative as he drops out of graded stakes company. I like the slight turnback to a mile for him, and he ran respectably against some tough company earlier this year. I think his form is a little more exposed than some others, which should be reflected in his price, though he does project to work out a great trip from the rail. I’m interested in a couple of other 4-year-olds with upside. #6 Hombre has always had ability and showed some hints of talent for trainer Barclay Tagg. Yet he seemed to really take a step forward first time out for the Cherie DeVaux barn. He ranged up powerfully at the quarter pole and dominated that affair through the stretch. He’s stepping up to meet a tougher field here, but he appears to be moving in the right direction and has a running style that should allow him to adapt to any pace scenario here. My top pick is #7 Winfromwithin. This horse had shown turf ability early on in his career for Todd Pletcher before a series of trainer changes seemed to briefly derail him. Yet he ran well on the dirt when switched into the Jorge Delgado barn even though that’s not his preferred surface. He got back on grass last time in the Cliff Hanger and clearly ran the best race. He contested a very strong early pace – 174 and 145 TimeformUS Early Pace Ratings for those first two fractions – in that race and battled back gamely in a race that was dominated by closers. Some may not trust these connections coming to New York, but this jockey has a pretty simple job. He just has to get him to front end in a race where the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring that running style.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2022, 08:19 AM

Belmont Park Picks: Love And Thunder (IRE) brings the hammer on July 3
By J.N. Campbell

Belmont Park Picks - Sunday, July 3, 2022

Race 1: 1-2-5-3
Race 2: 7-2-1-6
Race 3: 2-1/1A-3-5
Race 4: 4-6-7-3
Race 5: 6-8-2-1
Race 6: 4-2-6-5
Race 7: 6-8-5-2
Race 8: 6-5-1-3
Race 9: 3-6-7-1
**Most Likely: Higher Truth #6 (Race 7)**
**Best Value: Hombre #6 (Race 5)**

Most Likely Winner: (Race 7: Higher Truth #6, 1/1):

Trainer Chad Brown has a star in this race that will be a short price … that is a foregone conclusion. The real question is, what odds can you get on this “deserving favorite?” I would bet this one, but not below 4/5. With Flavien Prat aboard, the filly by Galileo (IRE) has a great chance at Belmont … Her record is impressive, as she is never out-of-the-money in 5 attempts. Brown’s record is clicking at an incredible rate, and it is hard to see him getting beat on the turf. He likes to remind people that he is not just a grass conditioner.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #6

Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 5: Hombre #6, 5/1):

Cherie DeVaux took over the training of this son of Tourist from Barclay Tagg. He went straight to the turf at Churchill Downs in a OC62.5kn2x. It was a strong win, after he rated nicely throughout the race. There is no question that facing winners like this will not be easy. However, I like this one’s running style, and he does have a win over the Belmont green. The addition of Luis Saez is welcome, as his aggressive riding can lead any team to the winner’s circle at any time.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #6 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)

Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 8: Turf, 1 Mile, Perfect Sting S., $100k, F&M 4+):

The Widener Turf Course is where the stakes at NYRA will be on Sunday. This course is a tough configuration, so you want a jockey with experience who knows how to navigate its seas. For my money, I want to find a way to beat Chad Brown’s Love And Thunder #5 (IRE). It will not be an easy chore … Flavien Prat rode this mare by Siyouni (FR) last time at Belmont on “Good” turf. She won rather easily, and that will convince many bettors to back her once again. I doubt that she will be 9/5 when this race goes off. Finding an entry that can rival her will not be easy, but I particularly want to try Christophe Clement’s Messidor #6 (IRE). This daughter of Vadamos (FR) is no slouch, and she won her own OC62.5kn2x at Belmont on 10 June. If she is that sharp again, then she has a major chance to upend Brown’s favorite. Clement has a strong stable, and his numbers bear out. Javier Castellano might not have the same strength that he once did, but I think the magic is still there. He makes it look easy, and when a jockey does that, it is poetry-in-motion. This will be another tough turf “Non-G,” but it is sure fun to wager and watch!

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Exacta Cold, 6/5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2022, 08:19 AM

LAUREL PARK PICKS AND PONDERINGS: JULY 3, 2022
Joseph Aiello

Post time: 12:40 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $15,223 Super High 5 — $0 Late Pick 5 — $0

RACE 1: CLAIMING $25,000 (N/W3L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES

5-1-3-6

The day kicks off with a field of six in a claiming route, as #5 Jerusalema (5-2) comes off a layoff and drops into claiming company after back to back winning efforts. She has run her best at this distance and well at Laurel with some strong closing efforts but will need to be more forward here. #1 Jackie the Joker (2-1) comes out of the same race as Jerusalema, finishing last in that try, but with better back class than these although she may prefer to go shorter. Maybe the most upside of this field is #3 How Lucky (3-1), who has run her best this year and should be in the right position sitting off the likely leader to her outside. Her recent speed figures match up well with this group, and a strong effort here could put her in the winner’s circle.

RACE 2: MAIDEN CLAIMING $45,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

5-6-8-1

A tough group to differentiate, #5 Lady Mosler (5-1) has shown huge improvement since switching to turf, with a strong second place finish last time out that could be good enough to beat these. A good price with a jockey trainer combo that has been strong together recently. To her outside is likely favorite #6 Flimsy (5-2), saddled by the always dangerous Graham Motion who runs this second time starter after a good place finish in her debut that gives her a leg up on the others here. #8 Fashionista (10-1) has put forth two straight solid efforts after her switch to turf, and offers good value with a mid-pack trip from Karamanos who rides her for the ninth straight time.

RACE 3: CLAIMING $8,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE

4-6-1-5

#4 Camp Pendleton (2-1) won by six lengths three weeks ago at this distance over this track, and has shown the most consistency since April of this field. Jockey Charlie Marquez has gotten the most out of this four year old gelding, and can avoid a return to last year’s struggles by getting him out of the gate early. #6 Mamaigotthis (5-1) adds blinkers trying to prevent a slower start, but seems to run his best coming from well back, showing a strong closing kick in back to back wins at Parx earlier this year. He may need a bit more distance to close into, leaving him as a decent play to come charging into the money. #1 Al Brown (9-5) showed the ability to go gate to wire last time, likely looking to do the same here. Settling in early and avoiding pressure from his outside should allow for slower fractions and winning chances.

RACE 4: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING $55,000 (N/W3X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, FILLIES AND MARES, 6 FURLONGS (GRASS)

1-4-3-7

Although she has run poorly in her stakes tries, #1 Dontletsweetfoolya (3-1) still has the most class here and showed something in her second turf race last time out. She finished with one of the better speed figures of this group in that try, although fading in the stretch might be an issue here for this mare that looks to have early pace. #4 Can’t Buy Love (2-1) is more familiar with the turf and slightly more consistent, and seems to be the most likely of the bunch but at a shorter price. #3 Whispurring Kitten (9-2) has the most turf wins of this field and a strong 7-3-1-1 record over the Laurel turf track, so is another logical player here with a jockey trainer combo that has been strong together. These top three appear to be a tad better than the rest, with Whispurring Kitten as the most consistent given that the turf course stays dry.

RACE 5: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS

1-7-5-4

A recent bullet work for #1 Superstitieux (5-2) could signal a breakthrough effort here after failing in seven straight maidens, and it appears that six furlongs on the dirt is his best race. He once had high hopes after running as the favorite against White Abarrio in September at Gulfstream, but will need improvement to win here. Another that needs to improve coming up from maiden claimers is #7 Bridge to Success (9-2), running off the claim for trainer Emanuel Geralis who has had a strong meet thus far. Breaking better and not dropping as far back early will be key for this gelding. #5 No Angel (2-1) hasn’t run in over a year, but would still be a contender purely based on his past speed figures and running style. Seems like a tough ask to win after a long layoff, but hitting the board is possible given the past form and questions surrounding others here.

RACE 6: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING $40,000 (N/W2X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

4-5-2-3

#4 Justwaveandsmile (2-1) is tough to overlook at the morning line favorite, winning four in five tries at Laurel and nver finishing out of the money at this distance and surface. The step up in class might be a deterrent to some playing this gelding in an even field, but other options haven’t been as steady recently, with none having a win this year. #5 Nuclear Option (4-1) may provide value underneath as this appears to be a good spot for improvement, but winning seems to be a stretch based on the last two years of efforts. Similarly, the heavily raced eight year old #2 Love You Much (5-1) hasn’t won in the last two years, but shows a solid closing kick in the stretch runs among this class and better, and is probably a safe play to hit the board given the relief from stakes tries and experience.

RACE 7: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS (GRASS)

2-7-12-1

#2 By the Sey Shore (7-2) closed impressively in a win last time, but will need more pace than is in here to get a similar trip an win. It is difficult to discern a standout here, so this race should be covered well if used in multi-race tickets, even with those such as #7 Sue Loves Barbados (7-2) who have struggled to cross the wire in first. This gelding by Barbados hasn’t finished further than four lengths behind the winner since last July, so there remains a chance for a breakthrough victory after never reaching the winner’s circle on the turf. A tough post for #12 Bourbon Currency (8-1) makes him a hard play to win, but being competitive in open allowance races at Belmont and Gulfstream a year ago show a glimpse of maybe being better than these in here if he returns to form second off a year-long layoff.

RACE 8: CLAIMING $40,000, 3-YEAR-OLDS, 5 1/2 FURLONGS

4-5-3-1

#4 Lantau (9-2) has been bet to favorite in three of his last four, and might have the early speed to take them gate to wire here at this distance. Also doesn’t hurt having a jockey trainer combo that has won five of ten together this past year. #5 Kozy’s Wildcat (2-1) has a similar running style and strong record at Laurel, with the form last time out that appears to be better than most here with a sharp speed figure. May be dependent on whether or not he beats Lantau to the turn. Morning lin favorite #3 Concrete Glory (5-2) may add to this speed duel, but hasn’t shown the ability to hang on to leads even at shorter races recently, although dropping out of stakes company is a plus that others don’t have in this field.

RACE 9: MAIDEN CLAIMING $20,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)

8-3-7-9

#8 Amaretto Sour (9-2) was in the money in her first two tries on the turf, so continued improvement in this underwhelming field might be enough to get a winning effort at decent value. Still would need to step up and doesn’t have great form or respect from betting public in her past performances. #3 Please Marry Me (7-2) sat near slower fractions last time but still only managed to finish fourth, although an improvement in finishing position every race might signal that this is the most likely winner of the bunch. Coming out of the same race as the two aforementioned is #7 Like n’ Eagle (3-1), who ran the best of any in that try, yielding to the winner after entering the stretch with the lead. Maybe a slight cutback in distance and hopefully a bit more pace to aim at gives this five year old mare a better chance than any to pick up their first career win.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2022, 08:20 AM

Interstate Racing Tips – Sunday July 3rd

Home - Featured - Interstate Racing Tips – Sunday July 3rd

RSN927

Sky Racecaller Terry Spargo covers all the daily racing tips for the NSW meeting at the Grafton on Sunday the 3rd of July.
Terry Spargo Grafton Tips

Grafton, 3rd July 2022

Race 1 Selections: 1,6,3,5
Race 2 Selections: 1,4,2,5
Race 3 Selections: 2,3,1,5
Race 4 Selections: 1,7,10,2
Race 5 Selections: 4,3,5,7
Race 6 Selections: 2,4,7,3
Race 7 Selections: 3,2,4,6
Race 8 Selections: 5,6,7,2
Race 9 Selections: 2,7,6,9
Kev Casey Mudgee Tips

Mudgee, 3rd July 2022

MEETING ABANDONED
Howard Walter Kilcoy Tips

Kilcoy, 3rd July 2022

MEETING ABANDONED
Best Bet
Value Bet
Quaddie
Play Of The Day

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2022, 09:24 AM

Canterbury Park Picks - Sunday, July 3, 2022

Race 1: 5-3-1-2
Race 2: 6-3-2-5
Race 3: 3-6-1-4
Race 4: 2-4-6-8
Race 5: 6-1-2-3
Race 6: 8-2-1-5
Race 7: 2-7-8-1
Race 8: 10-3-5-1
Race 9: 5-4-8-3
Race 10: 7-4-1-5
**Most Likely Winner: Summer All Year #5 (Race 1)**
**Best Value: Brahms Is Who #2 (Race 4)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2022, 09:25 AM

Gulfstream Park Picks - Sunday, July 3, 2022

Race 1: 3-7-8-1
Race 2: 5-4-1-3
Race 3: 8-2-5-1
Race 4: 7-1-2-5
Race 5: 2-1-5-9
Race 6: 3-4-1-5
Race 7: 5-8-1-4
Race 8: 7-1-6-3
Race 9: 6-9-1-4
Race 10: 6-5-9-1
**Most Likely Winner: Kohaku #5 (Race 2)**
**Best Value: Race Craft #2 (Race 5)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-03-2022, 09:25 AM

Laurel Park Picks - Sunday, July 3, 2022

Race 1: 1-5-6-2
Race 2: 10-6-9-4
Race 3: 1-3-6-5
Race 4: 3-9-1-4
Race 5: 5-1-7-3
Race 6: 3-8-1-4
Race 7: 5-7-1-2
Race 8: 7-3-4-1
Race 9: 8-7-3-2
**Most Likely Winner: Al Brown #1 (Race 3)**
**Best Value: Pink Daisy #10 (Race 2)**

Sunday 7/3/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Sunday 7/3/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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