Sunday 7/17/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Laurel Park Picks - Sunday, July 17, 2022

Race 1: 6-9-10-4
Race 2: 1-5-6-3
Race 3: 4-7-10-2
Race 4: 3-2-5-1
Race 5: 7-10-12-4
Race 6: 6-8-1-2
Race 7: 7-5-8-2
Race 8: 4-7-8-3
**Most Likely Winner: Sick Pack Sara #3 (Race 3)**
**Best Value: Bizzy Bizzy #4 (Race 8)**

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Ellis Park - Race #9 - Post: 4:40pm - Allowance - 10.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $61,000 Class Rating: 102

Rating:

#5 COURAGEOUSLY (ML=6/1)
#6 CHANTRY FLATS (ML=15/1)
#2 ROGUE ELEMENT (ML=9/2)


COURAGEOUSLY - Hartman is great in turf routes. This animal should have no alibis if he doesn't win. Look at this pattern of improvement. 85/89/92 are the last three Equibase speed figures. CHANTRY FLATS - This one likes to win on different ovals. The switch in venue today may be a wake up call. Using this rider/conditioner combination is a good choice. Clearly didn't like the surface of the last event as much as two starts back on the turf. Watch out today for a return to a sharp race. ROGUE ELEMENT - This jock and handler have a positive return on investment when they work together.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 RED HORNET (ML=2/1), #9 ARABIAN PRINCE (ML=5/1), #3 FINDING FREEDOM (ML=8/1),

RED HORNET - If he goes off at the oddsmaker's morning line of 2/1, I'll have to pass. ARABIAN PRINCE - This horse doesn't have a winning make-up. Time-and-again finishes close, but no cigar. FINDING FREEDOM - The long vacation will probably mean trouble for this racer. Earned a common speed rating last time around the track in an $80,000 Optional Claiming race on May 2nd. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that figure.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #5 COURAGEOUSLY to win if we can get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,5,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,5,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[2,5,6] with [2,5,6] with [1,2,5,6,11] with [1,2,5,6,11] Total Cost: $36

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Jeff Siegel: What You Need to Know - Saratoga | Sunday, July 17, 2022

by Jeff Siegel

SEVENTH RACE: Post time: 4:29 ET
5-New Ginya (5/2)

Missed the break and gave herself too much to do when a fast-finishing third (beaten a neck) in a similar state-bred first-level allowance turf router at Belmont Park last month, but with a clean start today she should be able to gain a favorable early position and have every chance to seal the deal from the quarter pole home. The lightly raced daughter of Tonalist appeared sharp in a recent dirt track breeze to tick her over for what should be another forward move. You should also consider 11-Classic Lynne in your rolling exotics and in the exactas and/or trifectas, if she actually runs (she was entered in a stakes race on Wednesday and may opt for that spot). Although stuck outside in her first start since October, the Joe Sharp-trained filly shows a steady series of workouts to have her fit and will be making her first start with Lasix. She could easily be a better type this time around.

TENTH RACE – Post time: 6:13 ET
10-Skyward Princess (3-1)

Second-time starter makes the always-critical class drop from maiden to maiden claiming and this New York-bred filly may have found her friends while stretching out to a distance of ground after a solid sprint prep in her first outing in 10 months. The Chad Brown barn hits at a remarkable 30% with the second-off-a-layoff angle, so we’re expecting this daughter of Air For Blue to produce a significant forward move, especially against this softer group. For exacta/trifecta players, consider 1-Jannie Mae and 5-Our Jessica somewhere on your ticket. The former stretches out after a sprint tune-up, lands the rail, and could get brave if she shakes loose as the controlling speed. The latter is a one-paced grinder but has numbers that fit and could clunk up for at least a piece of it.

*

SARATOGA RECOMMENDED ROLLING EXOTIC STRATEGIES:

(Races 1-5)
1st race: 8-Miracle Mike; 7-Conman; Backup: 4-Light Man
2nd race: 5-Waters of Merom; 6-Mommasgottarun. Backup: 2-Trinity Titoli
3rd race: 10-Crosstalk; 3-Big Bean Christine; Backup: 4-Toz
4th race: 6-Two Thirty Five; 5-Zoomer
5th race: 5-Yarrow; 7-Sheriff Bianco

(Races 6-10)
6th race: 6-O’Trouble; 4-Road to Success. Backup: 9-Vctory Built
7th race: 5-New Ginya, 11-Classic Lynne
8th race: 8-Big Invasion. Backup: 4-Nobals
9th race: 4-Sound Money; 5-Fortin Hill
10th race: 10-Skyward Princess; 1-Jannie Mae. Backup: 5-Our Jessica

*

SARATOGA WORKOUT ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY:


FIFTH RACE:

Yarrow (July 9, Saratoga, 4f, :50.2b TT). Grade: B
Nothing more than a gallop for C. Clement, breezing through the lane and into the clubhouse turn, first three panels in :37 flat before coasting out the final furlong. Best as a late-running turf sprinter and seems to have improvement in her.
View Workout Video
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SEVENTH RACE:

New Ginya (July 9, Saratoga, 4f, :51b TT). Grade: B-
Under a hold throughout, :37.3 on our watches from the quarter pole to the seven-eighths while looking fine for C. Clement in solo training track breeze. Lightly raced with plenty of room for further improvement.
View Workout Video

Classic Lynne (July 10, Saratoga, 4f, :48.3b). Grade: B-
Easy breeze for J. Sharp while outside La Neblina (same time), :48.2 on our watches, a tad best at the wire but second best on the gallop out. Seems in good enough shape, was also entered in stakes race on Wednesday.
View Workout Video

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EIGHTH RACE:

Sky and Sand (July 11, Saratoga, 4f, :50.3b TT TC). Grade: B-
Solo turf breeze inside the dogs, final quarter in :24.3 for S. Asmussen. Just a maintenance move, was a beaten choice at Churchill Downs last time out but appeared well enough here.
View Workout Video
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NINTH RACE:

Fortin Hill (July 7, Saratoga, 4f, :49.3b TT). Grade: B-
Solo training track drill for W. Mott, never really asked though wanting to lean in just a bit, final quarter mile in :24.1. Seems well enough.
View Workout Video

Gun It (July 9, Saratoga, 4f, :50.4b TT). Grade: B-
Not asked but refused to change leads despite efforts by the rider to do so, final quarter mile in :25.1. in solo training track drill. Never has been big on winning but usually gets a piece of it.

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Al Cimaglia: Hawthorne Racecourse Late Pick 4 Analysis | Sunday, July 17, 2022

by Al Cimaglia

Hawthorne Racecourse will have 12 races set to go tonight. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 9. The sequence has a $15,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9

5-Incredible Man (5/2)-Tried a different tactic in getting on the point and almost lasted. That may not be the plan tonight but should be a player regardless.
7-Fox Valley Monaco (2-1)-Has been consistent since shipping back to Illinois. Willfong should put in play and it looks like this could be the time for the 2nd picture of the year.

Race 10

3-Fox Valley Jasper (1-1)-Jasper is making only the 3rd start of his freshman season and looks like a good one. Seems to have a nose for the wire and has some versatility.
6-Henry The Horse (7/2)-This is another game 2-year-old that tries hard without the best of trips. Certainly, looks like a main player here.

Race 11

5-Ms Good Goobly Goo (9/5)-Could be over bet but tough to leave out. Shows decent speed and should enjoy the company.
6-Ain't She Special (15-1)-Had a rough trip in last but kept coming. Willing to take a swing at this price and 2nd time Lasix could help.
9-KP'S Magic Macy (12-1)-Will take a stab at a price in a chalky sequence. This filly could benefit from some lively fractions and that looks like a possibility.

Race 12

2-Marys Pretty Girl (6-1)-Qualified nicely on 7-9 with Leonard in the bike but he steers his own (#6) so Husted takes over. This mare has won 7 of 23 in Stickney and could surprise at a square price if fires hot off the bench.
4-Eliza Dushku N (7/2)-Veteran mare doesn't often win these days but lands in a soft spot. Comes off a good try to finish 2nd but faded late. May have met a beatable field.

0.50 Late Pick 4

5,7/3,6/5,6,9/2,4
Total Bet=$12

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AI Picks: $2K Hit & Split Laurel Pick 4 | Sunday, July 17, 2022

Laurel Park // Race 5 // 2:54 pm ET // allowance

#2 Johng (5-1) // 23%W
#4 Bryce Canyon (10-1) // 17%W
#1 Fermat (5-1) // 13%W
#13 Celtic Treasure (5-1) // 10%W

Laurel Park // Race 6 // 3:29 pm ET // claiming

#1 Jerusalema (6-1) // 31%W
#8 Joe Mike Jim (5-1) // 17%W
#2 Princess Cupid (3-1) // 14%W
#6 Peachy Weachy (7-2) // 13%W

Laurel Park // Race 7 // 4:03 pm ET // allowance

#8 I’m Blushing (5-2) // 22%W
#2 Bourbon Wildcat (12-1) // 19%W
#3 Gastown Babe (7-2) // 14%W
#5 Pie Killer (8-1) // 10%W

Laurel Park // Race 8 // 4:37 pm ET // maiden claiming

#5 Kobe’s Girl (3-1) // 27%W
#8 Caged Pixie (7-2) // 15%W
#4 Bizzy Bizzy (20-1) // 12%W
#3 Mejoramiga (9-2) // 11%W