Saturday 7/30/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-30-2022, 09:25 AM

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club Picks: Saturday, July 30, 2022

Race 1: 4-7-6-3
Race 2: 1-8-2-9
Race 3: 5-4-1-9
Race 4: 3-7-8-2
Race 5: 10-7-2-4
Race 6: 8-4-3-7
Race 7: 4-6-3-2
Race 8: 4-2-5-7
Race 9: 6-10-3-8
Race 10: 5-8-4-3
Race 11: 6-13AE-7-12
Most Likely Winner: Drain The Clock #4 (Race 8)
Best Value: Senor Buscador #5 (Race 10)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-30-2022, 09:25 AM

Ellis Park Picks - Saturday, July 30, 2022

Race 1: 6-4-1-2
Race 2: 6-1-2-7
Race 3: 3-4-1/1A-5
Race 4: 4-8-3-1
Race 5: 1-5-3-4
Race 6: 5-10-9-3
Race 7: 2-5-8-7
Race 8: 2-1-5-9
Race 9: 3-6-9-4
**Most Likely Winner: Search Engine #6 (Race 1)**
**Best Value: Dreamfactor #6 (Race 2)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-30-2022, 09:26 AM

Gulfstream Park Picks - Saturday, July 30, 2022

Race 1: 1-9-8-4
Race 2: 1-5-7-2
Race 3: 4-7-1-3
Race 4: 3-2-7-8
Race 5: 8-4-1-11
Race 6: 6-8-9-2
Race 7: 3-6-1-2
Race 8: 4-7-6-2
Race 9: 3-5-4-1
Race 10: 10-1-3-6
Race 11: 5-6-2-1
**Most Likely Winner: Capridrey #8 (Race 5)**
**Best Value: Broadway Ruckus #1 (Race 1)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-30-2022, 09:26 AM

Laurel Park Picks - Saturday, July 30, 2022

Race 1: 5-3-1-6
Race 2: 7-1-3-4
Race 3: 5-1-3-6
Race 4: 4-6-5-1
Race 5: 7-2-6-1
Race 6: 9-3-2-1
Race 7: 2-5-1-4
Race 8: 3-5-8-1
Race 9: 2-7-6-1
Race 10: 8-6-1-3
**Most Likely Winner: My Forever Friend #5 (Race 1)**
**Best Value: Island Philo #9 (Race 6)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-30-2022, 09:26 AM

Monmouth Park Picks: Saturday, July 30, 2022

Race 1: 6-4-3-2
Race 2: 6-5-3-4
Race 3: 2-6-7-10
Race 4: 1-3-4-5
Race 5: 6-2-4-3
Race 6: 3-8-6-5
Race 7: 8-11-3-7
Race 8: 5-7-2-3
Race 9: 9-4-6-1
Race 10: 6-7-8-3
Race 11: 6-7-9-1
Most Likely Winner: Insatiable (Race 3)
Best Value: Instant Chaos (Race 7)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-30-2022, 09:29 AM

$2K Hit & Split Adios Day Late Pick 4 Analysis | Saturday, July 30, 2022

by Al Cimaglia

It is Adios Day at The Meadows with the first post coming at 11:45 EST. The headliner is the Delvin Miller Adios Final which is carded as Race 15 and has a $350,000 purse. The North America Cup winner 3-Pebble Beach (5/2) and the Meadowlands Pace winner 5-Beach Glass (9/5) will square off in what could be an epic battle. The Adios 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 13, and it will be my focus.

Xpressbet and 1stBet account holders be sure to register for the Hit and Split promotion to claim your share of $2,000 promotional dollars. The contest will involve the Adios-Late Pick 4 which starts in Race 13.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 13

1-Voukefalas (6/5)-Dug in and drew-off in the NJ Sires Stakes Final and looks like the one to beat here. Hasn't raced on a smaller oval but will be tough to beat if takes to the track.
3-South Point (7/2)-Makes the 2nd start for the Brown barn and Tetrick steers again. If #1 has trouble with the turns this filly has a race over the surface and came 2nd at 2/5.

Race 14

3-Nevertellmetheodds (5/2)-Merriman takes over for the injured Kakaley. Should like the company and this filly could be forwardly placed throughout. This gal has looked good in both qualifiers and was used twice in the win on 7-17 at PcD. Was bet down to 0.70 on the $1 and looked the part.
5-Ultimate Loulou (9/2)-Outraced her odds at PcD in last and was used hard off the gate. Could be sitting on a big try, Page gets the assignment, and he has driven her here on 7-8.

Race 15

5-Beach Glass (9/5)-This colt just keep getting better and the 1.49 effort in the Adios Elimination on a sloppy track was something to see. Seemed to have no issues on the smaller oval and the plan today will be simple. Gingras will look to land on the point and play catch me if you can.

Race 16

2-Dragon Time (6-1)-The entire field has made 141 starts in 2022 and has come away with only 9 wins. Obviously, this is not formful group, but Wilder could stay close to the lead and make the most of an efficient trip.
3-Bring The Thunder (4-1)-This might be the fastest horse in the field and the trainer is steering so that might help the price. Needs to fire and be engaged but did qualify here in 151.3 on May 10.
8-Dig Danny Dig (3-1)-Here is the morning line chalk that has Palone between the pipes and the Scott Betts barn is posting 24% winners over the past 30 days. Has the gate speed to get a good early seat and may have found a beatable field.

0.50 Late Pick 4

1,3/3,5/5/2,3,8
Total Bet=$6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-30-2022, 09:29 AM

AI Picks: $12K Hit & Splits at Saratoga & Laurel | Saturday, July 30, 2022

Saturday’s Saratoga card includes a whopping $10,000 Hit & Split promotion for Xpressbet and 1/ST BET players. Take down the late pick four (Races 8-11) and collect the partimutuel winnings as well as your share of an additional $10,000 with other players on the 1/ST and Xpressbet platform who also connect.

Meanwhile, Saturday’s stakes-packed Laurel Park card includes a $2,000 Hit & Split promotion for Xpressbet and 1/ST BET players. Take down the late pick five (Races 6-10) and collect the partimutuel winnings as well as your share of an additional $2,000 with other players on the 1/ST and Xpressbet platform who also connect.

To assist your handicapping, top selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections.

You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. Full-card selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app. We’ve included the official track morning line odds.

Saratoga // Race 8 // 4:50 pm ET // $350,000 Grade 1 Vanderbilt Stakes

#4 Jackie’s Warrior (1-5) // 29%W
#2 Willy Boi (8-1) // 26%W
#6 Doc Amster (20-1) // 16%W
#3 Ny Traffic (6-1) // 12%W

Saratoga // Race 9 // 5:37 pm ET // $600,000 Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes

#5 Zandon (2-1) // 33%W
#2 Epicenter (3-2) // 28%W
#4 Early Voting (8-5) // 16%W
#1 Western River (20-1) // 12%W

Saratoga // Race 10 // 6:13 pm ET // allowance

#12 Capensis (2-1) // 16%W
#14 Warrior Johny (4-1) // 14%W
#11 Hidden Enemy (12-1) // 8%W
#1 Bay Street Money (8-1) // 7%W

Saratoga // Race 11 // 6:47 pm ET // claiming

#16 Monarchs Glen (3-1) // 19%W
#14 Quiet Out East (10-1) // 12%W
#5 Barlee Won (8-1) // 12%W
#9 Healing (5-2) // 11%W

//

Laurel Park // Race 6 // 3:24 pm ET // $75,000 Jameela Stakes

#2 Mattitude (5-1) // 30%W
#7 Can the Queen (5-2) // 22%W
#5 Ellanation (8-1) // 14%W
#6 Dendrobia (10-1) // 12%W

Laurel Park // Race 7 // 3:57 pm ET // $75,000 Star De Naskra Stakes

#2 Super Love (2-1) // 30%W
#1 Local Motive (8-1) // 19%W
#4 Alottahope (3-1) // 17%W
#5 Uncle Irish (7-2) // 10%W

Laurel Park // Race 8 // 4:28 pm ET // $75,000 Ben’s Cat Stakes

#5 Jaxon Traveler (5-2) // 30%W
#7 Double Crown (10-1) // 22%W
#9 Youngest of Five (8-1) // 14%W
#8 Grateful Bred (2-1) // 12%W

Laurel Park // Race 9 // 4:58 pm ET // $100,000 Deputed Testamony Stakes

#7 Magic Michael (3-1) // 29%W
#1 Ridin With Biden (2-1) // 21%W
#5 Treasure Trove (6-1) // 14%W
#4 Plot the Dots (4-1) // 11%W

Laurel Park // Race 10 // 5:28 pm ET // claiming

#8 Flank Speed (9-5) // 26%W
#7 Maryland Pride (7-2) // 14%W
#3 Rahmer (2-1) // 13%W
#5 Loaded Sniper (12-1) // 13%W

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-30-2022, 09:30 AM

Top Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, July 30, 2022
By J.W. Paine in Horse Racing

We’ve got a triple fistful of stakes races to assess for my horse racing picks for Saturday from three of my favorite raced tracks—Del Mar, Laurel Park, and Saratoga Racecourse.

Included among these tough competitions are Saratoga’s two graded matches, the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (Grade I) and the Jim Dandy Stakes (Grade II). But let’s not forget the epic runs Del Mar has in store for us–the San Diego Handicap (Grade II) and the Bing Crosby Stakes (Grade I).

And Laurel Park brings us five—count ‘em, five—stakes races And all three tracks have some underdogs with ambition that should keep our bankrolls very happy indeed.

Don’t forget to check out the full race cards of for all three tracks at one of our best sites for horse racing betting.

Good luck!
Saturday’s Horse Racing Picks for Del Mar Racing

We look first a three solid dirt track runs at Del Mar that include the Bing Crosby Stakes and the San Diego Handicap.
Race two

This is a one-mile allowance optional claiming race on the dirt track for California-bred or -sired three-year-olds and upward. I’m banking on the 4/1 underdog, Exceed Speed Limit, ridden by top jockey John R. Velazquez.

The real standout in this nine-horse field, this four-year-old chestnut gelding finished in the money nine of his 12 career starts, winning four.
Exceed Speed Limit’s numbers are a statistical match with Quick Buck, the morning-line favorite, who moneyed three of his four starts, winning one. I’ll take experience every time.

Michael W. McCarthy, who brought Rombauer to a win in the 2021 Preakness and a third in the Belmont Stakes, trains Exceed Speed Limit for owners STD Racing Stable and Andy Miller.
Race eight — Bing Crosby Stakes (Grade I)

This is a $400,000 purse, six-furlong race on the dirt track for three-year-olds and upward.

My money’s on the 6/1 sleeper, Principe Carlo, piloted by veteran jockey Victor Espinoza.

This dark bay six-year-old moneyed 17 of his 26 career starts, winning eight. More importantly, he’s shown better success at the stakes level than his competitors in this ten-horse field, particularly in recent months.

Twenty-year horse racing veteran Librado Barocio trains Principe Carlo for owners David A. Bernsen, LLC, Mia Familia Racing Stable, and Rockingham Ranch.
Race ten — San Diego Handicap (Grade II)

This is a $300,000 purse, 1-1/16 miles dirt track run for three-year-olds and upward. I gotta bet my two dollars on the 5/2 favorite, Country Grammer, with John R. Velazquez in the irons.

This five-year-old bay hasn’t done worse than second in his last four races, finishing second in the Saudi Cup in February at King Abdulaziz Racecourse in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and then winning the Dubai World Cup in March at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai, UAE.
Country Grammer is tanned, rested and ready.

And for the record, Country Grammer finished in the money seven of his ten career starts, winning four.

Thoroughbred racing Hall of Famer Bob Baffert trains Country Grammer for owners Commonwealth Thoroughbreds, LLC, Winstar Farm LLC, and Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.
My Saturday Horse Racing Picks for Laurel Park

Laurel Park features five stakes races on its race card, so stand by for some horse racing picks from both the dirt track and the turf course.
Race five — Miss Disco Stakes

This is a $75,000 purse, seven-furlong dirt track run for three-year-old fillies. I’m going to agree with the morning-line on this one and bet my money on the 7/5 favorite, Divine Huntress, with veteran jockey Victor R. Carrasco aboard.

This bay filly finished in the money for four of her seven career starts, winning two—which belies her superior experience and performance at the graded stakes level. Her most recent finish was a second place in the Acorn Stakes (Grade I) at Belmont Park in June.
In this seven-horse field, Divine Huntress is the one most likely.

Horse racing veteran H. Graham Motion trains Divine Huntress for owners Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and Long Valley Stables, LLC.
Race six — Jameela Stakes

This is a $75,000 purse, 5-1/2 furlongs turf run for fillies and mares three years old and upward. I like the 5/2 morning-line favorite, Can the Queen, ridden by Victor R. Carrasco.

This six-year-old may mare moneyed eight of her 17 career starts, winning six—which gives her the statistical lead among this competitive nine-horse field.

Rodolfo Sanchez-Salomon trains Can the Queen for owner Joanne Shankle.
Race seven — Star De Naskra Stakes

This is a $75,000 purse, seven-furlong dirt track run for Maryland-bred or -sired three-year-olds. I’m betting my two dollars on the 8/1 deep sleeper, Local Motive, with veteran jockey J. D. Acosta in the irons.

In this seven-horse field, this bay gelding has proven his mettle in more stakes runs than the rest of the field combined. For the record, Local Motive finished seven of his 11 career starts in the money, winning four. Ten of his starts were in stakes races.

His most recent wins include the James F. Lewis III Stakes (Black Type) last November and the Miracle Wood Stakes (Black Type) in February–both here at Laurel Park.

John E. Salzman, Jr. trains Local Motive for Bird Mobberley LLC.
Race eight — Ben’s Cat Stakes

This is a $75,000 purse, 5-1/2 furlong grass run for Maryland-bred or -sired three-year-olds and upward. I like one of the second-favored entries (there are two horses at 5/2 in this race): Jaxon Traveler, piloted by veteran jockey Feargal Lynch.

This four-year-old dark bay colt finished in the money 15 of his 16 career starts, winning six. His most recent win was the Maryland Sprint Stakes (Grade III) at Pimlico in May.

Hall of Famer Steven M. Asmussen trains Jaxon Travler for owners West Point Thoroughbreds and Marvin Delfiner.
Race nine — Deputed Testamony Stakes

This is a $100,000 purse, 1-1/8 miles dirt track run for three-year-olds and upward. I like the morning-line’s 3/1 favorite for this race—Magic Michael, with top jockey Jaime Rodriguez aboard.

This five-year-old chestnut gelding moneyed 16 of his 27 career starts, winning ten. His most recent stakes win was the Greenwood Cup Stakes (Grade III) last September at Parx Racing.
Of this seven-horse field, Magic Michael has the most consistent record for posting triple-digit speed figures.

Among the top 100 in wins, earning, or both since every year since 2007, Jamie Ness trains Magic Michael for owners Morris E. Kernan Jr., Yo Berbs Racing, and Jagger Inc.
Saturday Horse Racing Picks for Saratoga Racecourse

In addition to a big field (16 entries) allowance race, Saratoga brings us the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap and the Jim Dandy Stakes. Time for some pro-level wagering. What’s that you say? This would be a great time for some free horse racing picks? I believe you’re correct!
Race eight — Alfred G. Vanderbilt H. (Grade I)

This is a $350,000 purse, six-furlong handicap for three-year-olds and upward. Easily the no-brainer call of the day, I’m backing the 1/5 morning line favorite, Jackie’s Warrior, piloted by ace jockey Joel Rosario.

This four-year=-old bay colt finished in the money 13 of his 15 career starts, winning 11 of them. His three most recent wins were the Count Fleet Sprint Handicap (Grade III) at Oaklawn Park in April, the Churchill Downs Stakes (Grade I) in May, and the True North Stakes (Grade II) at Belmont Park in June.

Steven M. Asmussen trains Jackie’s Warrior for owners J. Kirk Robison and Judy Robison.
Race nine — Jim Dandy S. (Grade II)

This is a $600,000 purse, 1-1/8 miles dirt track run for three-year-olds.

This could be the tightest race of the weekend, but I’m backing the second-favored (at 8/5) Early Voting, ridden by top jockey Jose L. Ortiz.

This three-year-old dark bay colt moneyed all four of his career starts, winning three.
While the favorite in this race, Epicenter, has a very fine record (all five of the horses in this race have that), Early Voting has already beaten Epicenter in a Grade I stakes race this year—the Preakness.

Chad C. Brown trains Early Voting for Klaravich Stables, Inc.
Race ten

This is a 1-1/16 miles allowance run on the turf course for three-year-olds and upward. This is a big field (16 counting coupled entries and MTO also-eligibles), but I see some clearly superior entries here. Both of my picks here, incidentally, have some good stakes-level experience.

If Luiz Saez rides the MTO/also-eligible Therisastormbrewin into the starting gate, bet the pair to win. The morning line has them at 6/1.

The six-year-old Therisastormbrewin moneyed 18 of his 28 career starts, winning five. The gelding is trained by Rudy R. Rodriguez for Ryan Racing, Inc.

If that doesn’t happen, then back the other 6/1 underdog, Colosseo, with Joel Rosario aboard. This chestnut colt moneyed six of his eleven career starts, winning two.

Wayne M. Catalano trains Colosseo for owners Albert Frassetto, John D’Amato, and Richard Marini.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-30-2022, 09:30 AM

Weekend GamePlan for July 30, 2022: Picks for San Diego, Jim Dandy, Bing Crosby

Marcus Hersh

Laurel Park hosts a multiple-stakes card, and Woodbine has the Niagara, but the focus this last Saturday in July are boutique meets at Saratoga and Del Mar.

If the racing secretary really wanted to make things interesting in the Vanderbilt Handicap, co-featured at Saratoga, he’d have packed more weight on Jackie’s Warrior. As it is, six pounds isn’t nearly enough for a horse like the sharp Ny Traffic.

Bonus mini-picks this Saturday: Who’s the Star (44.76 final half-mile in this turf debut last out) to win the Niagara, A Little Bit of That to wire the Miss Disco at Laurel, and Alottahope to get up in the Star de Naskra there.

San Diego Handicap

The San Diego easily is the most interesting stakes race on Saturday, and I think there’s value to be extracted.

Country Grammer is the 125-pound highweight, and while I respect his accomplishments and think he’ll give Flightline all he wants in the Pacific Classic, this race clearly is shorter than he prefers and a stepping-stone to the rest of Country Grammer’s campaign.

:: DRF's Del Mar headquarters – Stakes schedule, previews, recaps, past performances, and more

I believe that will be a widespread viewpoint, at least among more serious bettors, and that Country Grammer will be bet accordingly. Still, he’s taking some money and his presence raises the win odds on better-meant runners.

Country Grammer’s Bob Baffert-trained stablemate Defunded merits a long look. He’s an improved animal at age 4 and hung in gamely going 1 1/4 miles in the Gold Cup after setting a strong pace and putting away Stilleto Boy. Defunded’s recent works (all solo drills) are very encouraging, and he could shake loose on the lead.

Mandaloun won’t be far off the pace, and I thought initially he’d be my fair-priced selection. I think it’s easy to toss his Saudi Cup, where Mandaloun didn’t run a step, and in his first race back in the States, Mandaloun pulled a three-wide trip both turns chasing the best dirt-route horse in the country, Olympiad.

I think the price comes up fair in the San Diego but couldn’t quite get past how gassed Mandaloun looked through the final Stephen Foster furlong, something one doesn’t typically see from Brad Cox-trained horses, even those back from a layoff.

Tripoli could be seriously overlooked, and I’ll tab him to go one place better than he did in the 2021 San Diego and win this. Tripoli clearly relishes the Del Mar surface, and trainer John Sadler has aimed his horse at the San Diego and Pacific Classic since Tripoli returned from an extended absence. Since Sadler also trains Flightline, I’d guess that he has geared Tripoli to peak in this start following a turf-route comeback run that was nothing more than a prep.

Jim Dandy

Count me in the camp that believes Epicenter is an underappreciated and underrated 3-year-old. I don’t want to hear about how he got a setup in the Derby because Epicenter moved early into that furious pace and was the only horse anywhere near the lead at the half-mile pole who had any final say. He might have been a touch flat in the Preakness but absolutely was compromised by his trip.

Trouble here is that Chad Brown, as often is the case these days, holds all the cards in the Jim Dandy. Epicenter is drawn inside, and his camp won’t want to let Early Voting break in front and gallop on an easy lead. But when Epicenter leaves the gate running this time, Early Voting can sit outside and badger him the whole trip.

:: Get Saratoga Clocker Reports from Mike Welsch and the Clocker Team. Available every race day.

While those two volley up front, Zandon should enjoy a favorable trip a few lengths behind the leaders. Zandon was making his first start of the season when he compromised his chances with a leaping start in the Risen Star, where Epicenter handled him comfortably, and I think there’s less between those two than the bare margin in that race. A leggy, light-framed colt, Zandon might have felt the grind of the spring season in the final stages of what was a strong Derby showing, and I’d expect him to fire a big shot running fresh at nine furlongs.

Bing Crosby

Shaaz has been toying with Country Grammer in recent team workouts, and I love the confidence I’ve seen from Shaaz, who has been placed along the fence inside his Dubai World Cup-winning mate in those drills. I thought after his brilliant maiden win that Shaaz would stretch out, but that hasn’t really happened for the late-starting colt. In fact, the guess is that the cut back to six furlongs here, the shortest race Shaaz has tried, is going to bring out the best in this beast.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-30-2022, 09:30 AM

Saratoga Picks: G2 Jim Dandy anchor LP4 on July 30
By J.N. Campbell

Saratoga Picks: Saturday, July 30, 2022

Race 1: 4-2-5-6
Race 2: 7-4-6-8
Race 3: 8-6-9-2
Race 4: 9-5-7-2
Race 5: 3-9-1-6
Race 6: 1-5-3-9
Race 7: 5-2-1-5
Race 8: 1-2-4-6
Race 9: 5-4-2-3
Race 10: 3-12-9-5
Race 11: 5-4-9-7
Most Likely Winner: Zandon #5 (Race 9)
Best Value: Kneedeepinsnow #1 (Race 8)

Late Pick 4 … Races 8-11

Race 8: Dirt, 6F, Alfred G. Vanderbilt H. (G1), $350k, 3+

As we roll into this Saratoga Saturday, we find ourselves faced with a major dilemma … or is it? Everyone knows that Steve Asmussen's star sprinter, Jackie’s Warrior #4 should manhandle this field in the Vandy. The Robison’s colt by Maclean’s Music started his ’22 march to the Breeders’ Cup at Oaklawn, and since then, he has rolled in every way possible. Regular rider Joel Rosario knows his tendencies, and we should all agree that he is going to be aboard the shortest price of the day. I am going to take a stand against this team, and hope that the field will catch him out … off his game. You might think that it is throwing away money, but the rewards will be sweet. You never know in horse racing how it is all going to shake out. This isn’t a large field, so going with 5 selections will not break the bank. When it comes to a top pick, I am pretty interested to see how the former Mike Maker runner, Kneedeepinsnow #1, takes to the track at The Spa … he will be a massive price for trainer Matt Shirer and jockey Ricardo Santana. Saratoga isn’t called the “Graveyard of Champions” for nothing …

Leg 1: 1/2/3/5/6 (5-Deep)

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Exacta Box, 1/2/3/5/6

Race 9: Dirt, 1 1/8th, Jim Dandy S. (G2), $600k, 3

Moving to the “highlight” on this card, we have possibly one of the best “Dandys” in recent memory. This is a well-matched group of 4, now that Western River #1 is a scratch (he ran in the Curlin S. on Friday). I am pretty convinced that Steve Asmussen’s Epicenter #2 and Chad Brown’s Early Voting #4 will be 1-2 on the tote when this G2 goes off, and in that order by the 1st call. The latter was able to notch the victory in the Preakness S. (G1) at Pimlico in mid-May by waiting for the right moment. Jose Ortiz sprung the trap, and Joel Rosario had to watch as Klaravich’s “KS” declared victory. After Winchell’s own was bested by a long shot in KYD148, it was a bitter pill to swallow for the HOF conditioner. I personally think that the son of Not This Time is running low on fuel (like the now-deceased Midnight Bourbon did last year), and mark my words, it will show at Saratoga. That makes me think that Brown could go 1-2 in the “Dandy,” but I am convinced that Jeff Drown’s son of Upstart will be the victor. Zandon #5 is equal to Mo Donegal when it comes to talent, and his late kick is just absolutely devastating. He gets the famed Flavien Prat back aboard, and I keep watching that powerful late middle move that he used in the Blue Grass S. (G1) at Keeneland. If that fired up runner comes to play, then it is going to be a sight to behold down the lane. Prat just needs to find a spot just off-the-lead, and that should suit. What a prep this is going to be for August’s Grade 1 Travers Stakes (G1). Get ready … and yes, it is a “Single,” as Zandon #5 wins!

Leg 2: 5 (Single)

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #5

Race 10: Turf, 1 1/16th, ALLW115kn1x, 3+

As is an oft-told story at Saratoga, it appears the Ortiz Brothers are aboard the top 2 Thoroughbreds in this route taking place on the Mellon Turf. Chad Brown’s Orchestration #3 is a Klaravich-owned colt by Flatter that was not cheap at the Keeneland September Sale in 2019—to the tune of $260k. In 3 career races, he has won once … breaking his maiden at The Spa last August. Irad rode him then, and knowing Brown, he will have this one ready to fire off-the-bench. You simply cannot count out these connections because they win at such a high rate. As for Jose’s colt, Capensis #12 is a son of Tapit that is just getting his career in gear. He broke his maiden on debut earlier this month at Belmont on the grass, and it was an impressive score considering his odds were 5/1. Winning by 5-lengths is not an easy chore at a NYRA course, no matter what the condition … Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and Todd Pletcher have already proven to be impressive investors when it comes to talent. Using both of these entries makes sense (nod to Brown’s entry), and should allow us to move right along to the finale. Ortiz v. Ortiz again …

Wagering Recommendation: $25/$50, WP #3

Leg 3: 3/12 (2-Deep)

Race 11: Turf, 1 Mile, Clm25k, 3+

It is time to finish-up this sequence on the Inner Turf, and there is nothing easy about this “claiming game” affair going a mile. With little recent history at this level, there are not many trends to lean on. Tried and true methods remain though, and the good news is that I have saved a few spots on my ticket by being judicious over the past 2 races. When it comes to a top selection, I am intrigued by Jose Camejo’s Barleewon #5. If you follow NYRA, then you have watched this venerable runner over the years. He already has 29 starts under his saddle, and came to his new barn in early May. Even though he gets dealt around the Racing Office a bit, I still think he has value, and a good bit of class to his credit. Last out, he won a distance turf race against state breds. It was only by a whisker, but a win is a win. Javier Castellano, who is riding like his own self, takes over the piloting duties. Camejo has already made some noise during the 1st few weeks of the Meet, and should continue to do so. Let’s use this gelding by Animal Kingdom, but also have some insurance with a few others. Big Agenda #3 for Jeremiah Englehart … Mo Ready #4 for Rudy Rodriguez … the Falcone Barn’s Jack the Cat #7 … and finally, Mike Maker’s Healing #9 … all look like they could be legitimate contenders for the last prize of the afternoon. Going with this 5 should gives us a chance to cash a nice ticket. This will not be an easy set from the beginning, but that's horseplaying for you!

Leg 4: 3/4/5/7/9 (5-Deep)

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Trifecta Box, 3/4/5/7/9

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Ticket: 1-2-3-5-6 / 5 / 3-12 / 3-4-5-7-9

.50 Cost LP4: $25.00

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-30-2022, 10:16 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Ellis Park - Race #4 - Post: 2:14pm - Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $61,000 Class Rating: 97

Rating:

#5 COMISKEY PARK (ML=6/1)
#4 FLINT RIDGE (ML=4/1)
#6 LET MY PEOPLE GO (ML=7/2)
#8 SILK TRADE (ML=8/1)

COMISKEY PARK - All systems look good for this gelding. Last workout, 2nd fastest of the day, shows he's fit and ready. A thoroughbred coming back this soon after a solid race is a good sign. FLINT RIDGE - I think the shorter trip will help this colt stay the trip. Hernandez rode this thoroughbred for the first time in the last race and comes right back this time. Another way to assign class is earnings per start. This racer has the highest in the bunch. I think he'll be close at the finish. LET MY PEOPLE GO - I'm optimistic this gelding will run well today. Last workout was 2nd fastest of the day, which tells me he's sharp right now. Corrales is right back for another race today after getting on board this horse for the 1st time on July 2nd and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. When this jockey and trainer combine forces you have to take a look. Corrales and Oliver have been fantastic together. Oliver brings him back again. I advocate you stay with this strong gelding. SILK TRADE - Flopped as the favorite in his last start. Ran well considering the speed fig earned was good enough to make him one of the contenders in today's contest. Have to make this gelding a strong challenger; he comes off a solid race on Jul 1st.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 MR SIPPI (ML=5/2), #3 LAMUTANAATTY (ML=8/1),

MR SIPPI - Hasn't raced or had any workouts since July 4th. Not much value on this probable favorite. This questionable contender just hasn't been winning as the public's top choice. LAMUTANAATTY - Just cannot bet on any racer right back after he doesn't hit the board after any extended vacation. Tough to back any racer in a sprint race if he hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last couple months. This colt notched a speed rating in his last race which likely isn't good enough in today's event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #5 COMISKEY PARK to win if you can get odds of 6/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-30-2022, 10:17 AM

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Monmouth Park

07/30/22, MTH, Race 6, 2.40 ET
07/30/22,MTH,6,6F [Dirt] 1:07:02 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $71,875 (includes up to $14,375 NJB - New Jersey Bred Enhancement). FOR REGISTERED NEW JERSEY BREDS MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 119 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs.
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	5	Lassie's Notion	4/1	Hernandez A	Martin Ramon F.	SFL	6	83.33	1.53/$1
097.7239	3	Punk Rock Girl	5/2	Ferrer J C	Breen Kelly J.	TW	15	46.67	1.21/$1
097.2440	8	Sadie Baby	7/2	Rendon J	McBurney Patrick B.	J	35	54.29	1.14/$1
095.6866	4	Elegant Dancer	9/2	Marin S	Huston Rory K.		15	46.67	1.21/$1
095.3050	7	Random Luck	6/1	Laprida J	Marquez Cesareo	E	101	39.60	0.81/$1
095.1790	6	Lady Trixmeister	5/1	Jimenez A	Wilson Tony		15	46.67	1.21/$1
093.9325	1	Twyla	15/1	Ramos Y C	Marquez Cesareo		10	40.00	1.55/$1
093.8980	2	Te Amo	15/1	Parish R	Russo Victor		10	40.00	1.55/$1

Top rated horse With "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 40.00, ROI 0.98/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -2.2761
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[All Dirt] Carries Apprentice Weight

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-30-2022, 12:44 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Monmouth Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $71875 Class Rating: 66

FOR REGISTERED NEW JERSEY BREDS MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 LASSIE'S NOTION 4/1
# 7 RANDOM LUCK 6/1
# 2 TE AMO 15/1

I have to consider LASSIE'S NOTION here. Looks strong to be close to the front end at the first call. A solid 65 avg class rating may give this filly a distinct class edge against this group. Has to be considered - I like the figures from the last competition. RANDOM LUCK - Has earned sound Equibase speed figs in dirt sprint races in the past. In this field, this entrant is in the upper half of earnings per start in dirt sprint races. TE AMO - This filly has some longshot angles I like to take a chance on. Is difficult not to look at given the company run in recently.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-30-2022, 12:44 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Emerald Downs - Race #5 - Post: 4:28pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,500 Class Rating: 70

Rating:

#1 KISS RIDE GOODBYE (ML=7/2)
#3 VIOLENT MOVE (ML=9/2)
#8 MAGGIE FITZGERALD (ML=5/2)

KISS RIDE GOODBYE - Sprinters that come back to the races quickly are generally good plays. This mare's recent speed figs have been as consistent as they get. No reason today will be any different, so I expect to see this thoroughbred to be in good position to win. Just check out her most recent speed rating, 74. That one fits in this group. VIOLENT MOVE - When Radke and Markle work together on horses the return on investment has been terrific at +26. All systems look good for this filly. Last work, 2nd fastest of the day, shows she's fit and ready. This animal wins a lot of cash per start. Number one in this affair. MAGGIE FITZGERALD - This jockey/handler duo has been producing a very positive ROI, right at +44. Cruz is back for another contest today after riding aboard this animal for the first try on Jul 17th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. She must like the track here. She just won over the track after shipping in. This thoroughbred coming off a strong performance in the last thirty days is a win candidate in my book.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 MISS MONIQUE (ML=5/1), #2 COASTAL RUN (ML=6/1), #4 STAND IN YOUR LOVE (ML=8/1),

MISS MONIQUE - Looked good on July 8th, finishing second, but no morning drills since is a bit troublesome. You figure that this horse is going to be victorious just because she's always close. Just doesn't win regularly. COASTAL RUN - She's most likely going to get cooked at the front. When examining today's class rating, she will have to record a much better rating than last time around the track to be competitive in this dirt sprint. STAND IN YOUR LOVE - Awfully tough to play this runner when she hasn't been showing any fighting spirit of late. In any contest of 5 1/2 furlongs, I like to back a contender that has been sharp in short distance affairs of late. Will not be easy for this entrant to beat this bunch off of that last speed fig. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class figure, so put her on the questionable challengers list.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #1 KISS RIDE GOODBYE to win if you can get odds of 3/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	1 with [3,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[1,3,8] with [1,3,8] with [1,3,6,7,8] with [1,3,6,7,8] Total Cost: $36