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Monday 8/1/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
Aug 01 '22, 8:05 PM in 57m
MLB | Orioles vs Rangers
Play on: Rangers -155 at Ace
My free play is on the Tex Rangers at 8:05 ET.
The Baltimore Orioles have missed the postseason in each of the last FIVE years, losing 100-plus games in THREE of the four full seasons, including tying Arizona for MLB's worst record in 2021 at 52-110. The Texas Rangers appeared in back-to-back World Series in 2010 and 2011 (lost both) but continued to be competitive, making the playoffs in THREE of the next five seasons. However, it's been FIVE consecutive losing seasons for Texas since 2017, including going 60-102 (.370) last season. Both teams have improved this season, The Orioles completed July 16-9, after a 14-12 June. That gave them consecutive winning months for the first time since April-June, 2016. Baltimore is 51-51 (three games behind the AL's third wild card team) as the Orioles open a three-game series in Arlington tonight against the Rangers. Texas returns home after taking THREE of four in Anaheim over the Angels and are currently 46-55. The Rangers are 7 1/2-games back of the final wild card spot but are on pace to win 74 games, 14 more than in 2021.
Spenser Watkins (3-1, 4.03 ERA) will take the mound tonight for Baltimore, while the Rangers will hand the ball to Jon Gray (7-5, 3.62 ERA). Watkins made 16 appearances (10 starts) in 2021, going 2-7 with an 8.07 ERA and 1.70. He's been a different pitcher in 2022, as in 13 starts, his ERA of 4.03 is more than four full runs less. While he has just four decisions (3-1), the Orioles are 8-5 in his starts. Watkins missed about a month with a forearm injury but since his return (June 25), he's 3-0 (team is 4-1) with a 1.93 ERA. Gray won 43 games in a four-year span from 2016-2019 for Colorado but then went 10-16 with a 5.03 ERA in 2020 and 2021, Still, the Rangers signed him to a four-year, $56 million contract prior to the start of 2022. He's made 18 starts in 2022. Splitting his season two parts, Gray was 1-3 with a 5,28 ERA through nine starts (team was just 3-6) but over his most recent nine starts, Gray is 6-2 with a 2.25 ERA (team is 7-2).
Baltimore may be the better team at the moment, but I'm not convinced that will be the case come year's end. I'm siding with the veteran Gray over second-year pro Watkins.
Good luck...Larry
Aug 01 '22, 8:05 PM in 57m
MLB | Orioles vs Rangers
Play on: Rangers -155 at linepros
Monday MLB Free play. My selection is on Texas over Baltimore at 8:05 pm et on Monday.
These two teams suddenly appear headed in opposite directions with the Orioles coming off a series loss in Cincinnati over the weekend and the Rangers having just taken three of four from the Angels in Anaheim. Here, we'll back Texas as it returns home looking to continue to build some positive momentum in the midst of a trying campaign.
Spenser Watkins will take the ball for Baltimore. He has recorded a 4.45 FIP and 1.41 WHIP this season while allowing just shy of 4.7 runs per nine innings. The Rangers will actually be getting their second look at Watkins in less than a month after only managing to scratch out one earned run over 6 2/3 innings against him back on July 6th. I expect a better result from the Rangers bats here.
Jon Gray will counter for Texas. He's put together a string of solid outings to lower his FIP to 3.37 and his WHIP to 1.14. Gray allows just shy of 3.9 runs per nine innings on the season.
The two bullpens are comparable, especially when considering the O's road numbers and the Rangers home ledger. Note, however, that Baltimore's 'pen has logged just shy of 30 innings over the last seven games (without a day off), approaching what I consider to be 'overworked' territory while the Rangers relief corps has logged only 20 innings over that same stretch. Take Texas.
Jack's Free Pick Monday: Royals/White Sox UNDER 9
The Kansas City Royals have been held to two runs or fewer in four of their last six games overall while getting shut out three times. The Chicago White Sox have been held to 5 runs or fewer in five consecutive games now and are still missing one of their best hitters in Luis Robert. Runs will be hard to come by off these two starting pitchers tonight.
Michael Kopech is 4-6 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in 18 starts this season, including 1-3 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.052 WHIP in nine home starts. The UNDER is 11-5-2 in Kopech's 18 starts in 2022. He has posted a 3.00 ERA and 1.222 WHIP in two career starts against the Royals with combined scores of 7 and 4 runs in those two starts.
Brad Keller is 5-11 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.328 WHIP in 19 starts this season for the Royals. Keller has had great success against the White Sox, going 5-5 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.252 WHIP in 15 career starts against them. The UNDER is 9-3-3 in those 15 starts.
The UNDER is 30-11 in Keller's career vs. division opponents. The UNDER is 21-7-1 in the last 29 meetings, including 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings in Chicago. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
Aug 01 '22, 8:10 PM in 1h
MLB | Royals vs White Sox
Play on: Royals +150 at Caesars
1* Free Sharp Play on Royals +150
The Royals (+150) are worth a look as a decently priced road dog against the White Sox in Monday's MLB action. There's just too much value here to pass up with Kansas City. Chicago's being way over priced because they have Michael Kopech on the mound. Sure he's been good, but the White Sox are just 8-10 in his 18 starts this season and a mere 3-6 when he takes the mound at home. Royals' Brad Keller has also owned Chicago of late. In his 2 starts against the White Sox this season, he's given up 1 ER in 7 innings and 3 ER in 7 innings. He also allowed just 1 ER in 7 innings in his last start against them in 2021. Play the Royals +150!
T.M. Selection: Houston Astros.
I like the Houston Astros to win this game against the Boston Red Sox on Monday. The Astros have looked really good in their games lately, winning 3/4 of their previous 4 games and they have looked really good for a majority of the year now. The Red Sox haven't looked great though and they have had some serious issues with their pitching over the last few weeks. They just lost 2/3 games to the Brewers and they have been giving up a ton of runs in a majority of their games lately. Nathan Eovaldi (4-3, 4.43 ERA) is up for the Red Sox here and he hasn't looked great in his starts lately. He has given up 14 runs in his 2 most recent starts and hasn't pitched more than 10 innings between the 2 games. Luis Garcia (8-6, 3.81 ERA) is up for the Astros here and he hasn't looked great lately, but he isn't pitching badly and he has been a lot better than Eovaldi has looked. I expect Garcia to pitch well against the Red Sox here and I see the Astros putting up a ton of runs on Eovaldi and the Red Sox bullpen here at home. I like the Astros to win this game.
T.M. Prediction: 7-2 Astros.
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