Saturday 8/13/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Saratoga Picks: G1 Fourstardave H. brings 5 turfers together on August 13
By J.N. Campbell


Saratoga Picks: Saturday, August 13, 2022

Race 1: 2-5-1-3
Race 2: 2-3-7-5
Race 3: 3-6-2-5
Race 4: 4-2-1-5
Race 5: 6-3-2-8
Race 6: 5-3-7-9
Race 7: 4-9-7-1
Race 8: 1-7-6-10
Race 9: 7-2-4-1/1A
Race 10: 1-4-3-2
Race 11: 9-2-3-8
Most Likely Winner: Portfolio Company #1 (Race 8)
Best Value: Happy Bob #7 (Race 9)

Late Pick 4 … Races 8-11

Race 8: Turf, 1 Mile, OC80kn1x, 3

The sequence on this Saturday is probably one of the best wagering races on the entire Saratoga card, but you have to willing to go against a tough “deserving favorite.” These 3-yr-olds will be taking to the Inner Turf, and are looking to upgrade their class status. When it comes to playing this LP4, I am going to shy away from going deep … it is time to be realistic. The phrase “Chad Brown-Klaravich horses on the grass” conjures thought bubbles comprised of words like low odds and sure-bets. Portfolio Company #1 will be just that on Saturday, and with Joel Rosario aboard, the colt by the now-deceased Kitten’s Joy has a chance to shine. Brown is dropping him down from stakes company, and he easily has the most experience in this spot. Some might call this a suspicious move, but there is always intent behind this future HOF-er’s moves. For me, this is a “Single,” and I am going to hope I can find a price horse, elsewhere on the card.

Leg 1: 1 (Single)

Wagering Recommendation: $100, Win #1



Race 9: Dirt, 7F, MSW105k, 3+

Here is an interesting condition for males, in that most are 3-yr-olds. With a good number of 1st time starters, it will be a challenge to discern who is ready, and who is not. Chad Brown once again comes with a strong hand, and I would not be surprised if either Leading Contender #2 or For Good #4 broke their maiden. I am going to use both of them, but I really think highly of the Schettino Barn’s Happy Bob #7. This colt by Runhappy is on the make, and looks the part after he debuted at Belmont at the end of June. Not only does he get 1st time Lasix, but the addition of Flavien Prat is a smooth move. Expect him to make some waves against this bunch! Let’s go 3 deep, and move to the latter half of this LP4 sequence.

Leg 2: 2/4/7 (3-Deep)

Wagering Recommendation: $25/$50 WP #7



Race 10: Turf, 1 Mile, Fourstardave H. (G1), $500k, 3+

The stakes highlight of the Saturday Spa card is probably the annual renewal of the Fourstardave Handicap. A 2-turn Grade 1 event on the Inner Turf, it regularly brings together a good field of celebrated “milers.” Coming into this year’s race, the matriarch against the boys is definitively the Peter Brant-owned mare by Animal Kingdom, Regal Glory #3. Chad Brown’s 6-yr-old is the top grass runner in the nation, and she has proved it on many occasions. With 19 starts under her saddle, she has 12 wins … her earnings, you ask? In excess of $2 million … Jose Ortiz is her regular pilot, and even though she can be a challenge to handle, there is no question that when she comes to play, she can be devasting in the stretch. Despite her brimming form and talent, I am betting that today is not going to be hers. In fact, I am going to take the rest of the field (all males), and try to beat her with the likes of NYRA favorite Casa Creed #1. This can be a dangerous strategy, but the payoff is going to be sweet, if we can get a longer priced entry home. A trip to the Breeders’ Cup Fan Duel Mile (G1) is on the line … maybe the favorite will be off her game … A note, Brown has actually never won the Fourstardave H. ... what?

Leg 3: 1/2/4/5 (4-Deep)

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager, WPS #5 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)



Race 11: Turf, 1 1/16th, MC40k, 3+

The finale on this Saturday card is your typical endgame that can point in a number of directions. There is nothing easy in spots like these … I am interested in John Kimmel’s gelding by Practical Joke. Smart Joker #2 is owned by Monmouth Park’s Dennis Drazin, and he gets another shot at the turf after losing the lead down the stretch last time out at Belmont. He comes back at the same condition and distance, and I think that Jose Ortiz can use what he learned from that last attempt. The pace scenario was not at all quick, so maybe it was just a case of a late meltdown. One other entry that suits my ‘capping fancy is Carlos Martin’s Calloway Peak #9. Ridden once again by Eric Cancel, this gelding by Arrogate has a good turf pedigree on the dam side, and the former Bill Mott-trainee is still looking to break his maiden. That could very well come on Saturday, as he gets “blinkers” … don’t give up on this one yet …

Leg 4: 2/9 (2-Deep)

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Exacta Box, 2/9

----------------------------------------------

Ticket: 1 / 2-4-7 / 1-2-4-5 / 2-9

.50 Cost LP4: $12.00

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Churchill Downs Picks: Nod to Arlington Million part of special Saturday card on August 13
By J.N. Campbell


Churchill Downs Picks: Saturday, August 12, 2022

Race 1: 3-5-1-9
Race 2: 4-2-1-6
Race 3: 7-3-8-4
Race 4: 7-10-6-1
Race 5: 4-3-5-1
Race 6: 6-9-3-10
Race 7: 3-1-2-4
Race 8: 1/1A-8-3-7
Race 9: 1-8-2-6
Race 10: 6-2-5-3
Race 11: 6-1-4-9
Most Likely Winner: Santin #6 (Race 11)
Best Value: Intrepid Heart #6 (Race 10)

All-Stakes Rundown …

Race 5: Turf, 1 1/8th, Beverly D Stakes (G1), $500k, F&M 3+

How will the Matt Winn Turf Course play? Hmm … anyone’s guess … The Churchill stakes action begins with an homage to Arlington Park … it’s the Beverly D. This Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” contest offers entry into the Filly and Mare Turf (G1) at Keeneland in November. That usually means that American representatives will face some stiff international competition. To check that kind of power, you want a blade runner that has the past history, plus the budding talent to build some nice form over the course of the late summer and into the fall. I think that Chad Brown’s Rougir (FR) #4 fits the bill. Owners Peter Brant and Michael Tabor brought this filly by Territories (IRE) over, after they purchased her for a whopping $3.3 million. After missing in last year’s BC F&M Turf (G1), she was officially transferred to Brown. Her NYRA attempts continue to be mixed, at best, but she comes to Churchill with much promise. Manny Franco is getting more and more opportunities to ride for Brown, and I have the utmost confidence that this one can punch her ticket to Keeneland.

Wagering Recommendation: $25/$50 WP #4



Race 7: Dirt, 6F, Lady Tak Stakes, $200k, F&M 3+

The dirt sprinters will be out in force, and we have a marquee match-up between Neil Pessin’s Bell’s the One #1 and Greg Foley’s Sconsin #2. They have faced one another many times, and recently the latter has gotten the best of the former. Honestly, you could put their names in a bag and shake it up … the result … anyone’s guess. Most will probably side with Foley … he has Gaffalione in his corner. When it comes to a top selection, I am going with John Ortiz’s Joyful Cadence #3. The filly by Runhappy has the requisite skills, and Reylu Gutierrez knows how to hustle this one. He did just that when he was last aboard this 4-yr-old at Prairie Meadows in a “Non-G.” I realize the competition in that race might not be up to par with this bunch, but her class rating is on the rise. What we know for sure is she will be more than a square price when this race goes off …

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager, WPS #3 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)



Race 10: Dirt, 1 3/16ths, Fort Larned Stakes, $200k, 3+

Named for one of the best, this distance test on the Main Track brings together an eclectic crowd of runners. I think Kenny McPeek has the inside track with King Fury #2, a colt by Curlin that braved the BC Juvenile (G1) at Keeneland in ’20, and then travelled the Derby Trail the year after. He was no match for Essential Quality in the Travers S. (G1), but he did build some nice class along the way. His ’22 campaign began in April at Turfway Park, but since then he has not been seen outside the training track. How sharp will he be? That is a question … Instead of backing this one, I am more interested in Joe Sharp’s uncoupled entry … Twilight Blue #5 and Intrepid Heart #6. Both of these runners will be stretching out, but that isn’t much of an issue. I am more interested in the fact that both of them relish the Churchill oval. Sharp is one of those unheralded conditioners that has yet to crack the nation “super trainer” conversation … that will soon change. Intrepid Heart #6, with Tyler Gaffalione in the irons, this gelding by Tapit has all the ability to get the job done. That last speed fig he posted at Churchill in late June before the Meet closed was solid against OC80kn3x-types. Here is the wager I have constructed … Sharps up!

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Trifecta Box, 2/5/6



Race 11: Turf, 1 1/8th, Arlington Million Stakes (G1), $1 Million, 3+

There is history and the culture of Arlington Park is something to be remembered … The famous Arlington Million has moved, in case you did not hear, and it comes to the Twin Spires. The purse is back where it once was, but the distance will not be the customary 1

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Saratoga & Churchill Downs Weekend Preview & Picks – August 13th, 2022
By Patrick Gates

Race Information:

Name: Saratoga Special Stakes
Track: Saratoga Race Course (Saratoga Springs, NY, USA)
Event Grade: Grade II
Race: 4
Post Time: 2:47 PM
Length: 6 1/2 Furlongs
Purse: $200,000
Division: Colts | Two Years Old
Surface: Dirt
Wagers: Win, Place, Exacta, Trifecta (0.50), Superfecta (0.10)



Field:
Post Position Horse A/S Wgt ML Odds
1 Super Chow 2/C 120 8-1
2 Damon’s Mound 2/C 120 7-5
3 Valenzan Day 2/C 120 12-1
4 Gulfport 2/C 122 4-5
5 Owen’s Leap 2/C 120 8-1



Horse Preview:

(1) Super Chow, won his maiden at Gulfstream Park last month in a $55k MsW 5-furlong sprint. He sped to the front, set the pace, and pulled away down the stretch. Super Chow also posted a bullet workout on August 6th.

(2) Damon’s Mound, won his maiden at Churchill Downs last month in a $120k MsW 6 furlong sprint.

(3) Valenzan Day, has the most experience in the field having raced three times before. In his last start, he ran 9th in the G3 Sanford Stakes after losing his footing. Before that, he finished 3rd in the Tremont Stakes and won a MsW at Belmont.

(4) Gulfport, goes off as the morning line favorite after winning both of his starts. In his last out, he won the Bashford Manor Stakes setting the pace from the start and winning easily. His first start was a 5-furlong MsW at Churchill where he won easily again.

(5) Owen’s Leap, finished second to Gulfport in his last start in the Bashford Manor Stakes. In his only other start, he won a 5-furlong MsW at Churchill back in May.



Picks:

WIN: (4) GULFPORT

EXACTA PART WHEEL: 4/ 2, 5



Race Information:

Name: Fourstardave Handicap
Track: Saratoga Race Course (Saratoga Springs, NY, USA)
Event Grade: Grade I1
Race: 10
Post Time: 6:13 PM
Length: 1 Mile
Purse: $500,000
Division: Open | Three Years Old and Upward
Surface: Inner Turf
Wagers: Win, Place, Exacta, Trifecta (0.50), Superfecta (0.10)



Field:
Post Position Horse A/S Wgt ML Odds
1 Casa Creed 6/H 122 5-2
2 Front Run the Fed 6/H 117 10-1
3 Regal Glory 6/M 119 6-5
4 Masen (GB) 4/G 123 2-1
5 Owen’s Leap 5/G 120 8-1



Picks:

WIN: (3) REGAL GLORY

Regal Glory will take on the boys in the Grade I Fourstardave Handicap. She’s coming off four straight wins, including two G1 victories in the Just a Game Stakes and Matriarch Stakes. She’s raced at Saratoga twice before winning both of those starts. Mansen, will be her main competition but this distance seems to be Regal Glory’s sweet spot.

EXACTA PART WHEEL: 3/ 1,4



Race Information:

Name: Beverly D. Stakes
Track: Churchill Downs (Louisville, KY, USA)
Event Grade: Grade II
Race: 5
Post Time: 3:01 PM
Length: 1 1/8 Miles
Purse: $500,000
Division: Open | Three Years Old and Upwards
Surface: Turf
Wagers: Win, Place, Exacta, Trifecta (0.50), Superfecta (0.10)



Field:
Post Position Horse A/S Wgt ML Odds
1 Dalika (GER) 6/M 125 8-1
2 Family Way 5/M 125 3-1
3 Princess Grace 5/M 125 3-1
4 Rougir (FR) 4/F 125 2-1
5 Lily Pond (IRE) 3/F 120 5-2



Picks:

WIN: (2) FAMILY WAY

Family Way is coming off a second-place finish in the G1 New York Stakes losing to Bleecker Street. He was caught late after setting the pace for most of the race. This distance should suit him a little better.

EXACTA BOX: 2, 5



Race Information:

Name: Arlington Million Stakes
Track: Churchill Downs (Louisville, KY, USA)
Event Grade: Grade I
Race: 11
Post Time: 6:25 PM
Length: 1 1/8 Miles
Purse: $1,000,000
Division: Open | Three Years Old and Upwards
Surface: Turf
Wagers: Win, Place, Exacta, Trifecta (0.50), Superfecta (0.10)



Field:
Post Position Horse A/S Wgt ML Odds
1 Set Piece (GB) 6/G 125 4-1
2 Sacred Life (FR) 7/H 125 9-2
3 Field Pass 5/H 125 8-1
4 Smooth Like Straight 5/H 125 5-2
5 Megacity 7/G 125 15-1
6 Santin 4/C 125 3-1
7 Admission Office 7/G 125 10-1
8 Cavalry Charge 5/G 125 20-1
9 Cellist 4/G 125 15-1



Picks:

WIN: (6) SANTIN

EXACTA BOX: 6/ 1, 4

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Monmouth Park Picks: Saturday, August 13, 2022

Race 1: 6-5-3-1
Race 2: 5-4-1-7
Race 3: 2-1-4-3
Race 4: 5-7-10-4
Race 5: 4-2-6-5
Race 6: 1-5-6-2
Race 7: 5-1-3-2
Race 8: 1-6-3-5
Race 9: 1-7-5-4
Race 10: 2-6-8-1
Race 11: 7-4-6-1
Most Likely Winner: Lay The Groundwork (Race 10)
Best Value: Standup (Race 1)

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Woodbine - Race #4 - Post: 2:36pm - Optional Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $101,200 Class Rating: 90

Rating:

#6 MUSICAL RIDE (ML=15/1)
#5 EMMELINE (ML=3/1)
#4 GAMBLING CAT (ML=10/1)
#3 MILLIE GIRL (ML=5/2)
#9 GLORIANNIA (ML=8/1)


MUSICAL RIDE - Moran comes to get aboard after getting to know the filly in the last affair. This filly should be in tip-top shape, this far into her form cycle. It would be wise to check this filly's odds close to post time. I noticed she's won a few times at big odds. EMMELINE - This filly ran versus the males last time. In with her own gender today. When this jockey and conditioner join forces you have to take a look. Stein and Mattine have been wonderful together. Ran last time out against a higher rated class of horses at Woodbine. The move down the class scale should suit her well. GAMBLING CAT - This filly has been trying different distances, but from the looks of things, she ran a nice fig last try at this distance. Using this jock/trainer combination is a smart choice. MILLIE GIRL - Carroll comes to ride again after getting to know the filly in the last contest. This racer coming off a good try in the last month is a solid contender in my humble opinion. I like this filly. Has the top earnings per race in today's contest. GLORIANNIA - This pony coming off a good race in the last month or so is a solid contender in my book. Personally, I wouldn't worry about where she finished in her last race (fourth). Should rebound in today's race, with some decent odds.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 STARLIGHT RIDGE (ML=4/1), #2 HIT AND RUN (ML=6/1),

STARLIGHT RIDGE - Have to be a little shy about the recent trend and awesome speed rating in the Jul 28th event. It was this mare's best at that distance and this one should bounce today. HIT AND RUN - Doesn't look to be in a strong spot this time around.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - MUSICAL RIDE - If I can get anything close to the morning line odds on this one I'm making a wager. Wasn't too far from the victor last race out.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #6 MUSICAL RIDE to win if you can get at least 6/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,5,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	[4,5,6] with [3,4,5,6,9] with [3,4,5,6,9] Total Cost: $36
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[5,6] with [4,5,6] with [3,4,5,6,9] with [3,4,5,6,9] Total Cost: $24

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Laurel Park
PURCHASE
Laurel Park - Race 7

EXACTA, TRIFECTA &DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 7-8) / 10 cent SUPERFECTA 50 cent PICK 3 (Races 7-8-9) / 50 cent PICK 4 (RACES 7-8-9-10) $1.00 SUPER HIGH 5


SO $20,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 96 • Purse: $32,000 • Post: 4:03P
(PLUS UP TO 15% MBF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $12,500 OR LESS IN THEIR LAST THREE STARTS OR CLAIMING PRICE $20,000-$16,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 13 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000, IF FOR $16,000, ALLOWED 4 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. ALGEBRAIC is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ALGEBRAIC: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
6
ALGEBRAIC
10/1

5/2




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
6
ALGEBRAIC
6

10/1
Front-runner
98

99

98.0

84.6

82.1
4
ASKIN FOR A BASKIN
4

6/1
Stalker
99

92

81.6

82.8

73.3
1
HE HATE ME
1

9/5
Alternator/Stalker
90

92

76.2

83.6

77.1
2
YES SIR ROBERT
2

9/2
Alternator/Stalker
90

89

75.0

82.6

73.6
7
MERU
7

3/1
Alternator/Stalker
95

89

46.4

81.6

74.6
3
TOMMY SHELBY
3

6/1
Trailer
100

84

32.6

81.0

73.0
5
ROYAL CRUSADER
5

12/1
Alternator/Trailer
97

89

44.8

83.6

72.1

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Handicapper Sonny LaFouchi(aka The LEGEND)!

Free Winners for Saturday, August 13th 2022 from THE LEGEND!
FREE HORSE PICKS
GULFSTREAM PARK
RACE #10
TIME: 5:21 PM EST
PICK: BET #4 Pudding 7/2 odds to win @ Bovada

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Rk	Sports Services	Free Sports Picks
6.	Sam Casey	MLB – Giants -1.5
7.	Henry Brown Sports	MLB – Rays over 6.5
8.	Winning Big Sports	MLB – Twins -110
9.	Lou Panelli	MLB – Dodgers -1.5
10.	Platinum Info Club	MLB – White Sox over 8

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Rk	Sports Services	Free Sports Picks
11.	William E. Stockton	MLB – Guardians +100
12.	Vincent Pioli	MLB – Mets -1.5
13.	Steve “Scoop” Kendall	MLB – Marlins GM1 +120
14.	SCORE	MLB – Cubs +110
15.	Tony Campone	MLB – White Sox -1.5

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Rk	Sports Services	Free Sports Picks
16.	Chicago Sports Group	MLB – Mariners under 8.5
17.	Hollywood Sportsline	MLB – Dodgers -1.5
18.	VIP Action	MLB – Red Sox over 9
19.	South Beach Sports	MLB – White Sox -1.5
20.	LV Sports Commission	MLB – Rays over 6.5

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21.	NY Players Club	MLB – Giants -1.5
22.	Fred Callahan	MLB – Padres -1.5
23.	LV Private CEO Club	MLB – Marlins GM1 +120
24.	Michigan Sports	MLB – Astros -1.5
25.	National Consensus Report	MLB – Dodgers -1.5

Rk	Sports Services	Free Sports Picks
1.	NSA(The Legend)	MLB – Mariners -100
2.	Gameday Network	MLB – Astros -1.5
3.	Sports Action 365	MLB – Diamondbacks under 11.5
4.	Vegas Line Crushers	MLB – Padres -1.5
5.	VegasSI.com	MLB – Marlins GM1 +120

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VegasInsider (Joe Osborne)

CFL
Roughriders -5.5

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Kyle Anthony

Event: (24241) Charlie Ontiveros at (24242) Gabriel Benitez

Charlie Ontiveros +290

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Gianni the Greek

Los Angeles Chargers -170

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Adam Trigger

NFLX

Denver Broncos ML (-170)

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Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Arizona w/Gallen -140 over Colorado

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Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR SATURDAY: INDIANAPOLIS/BUFFALO UNDER the total of 36

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Totals4U

Saturday's Free Selection: Los Angeles Rams/Los Angeles Chargers under 30