Thursday 9/1/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-01-2022, 05:05 AM

Thursday’s games

National League
Los Angeles (90-39) @ NY Mets (83-48)
— Kershaw is 0-1, 7.24 in his last three starts.
— Dodgers are 9-6 in his starts
— under 5-3-2 last ten
— allowed run in first inning: 2-15
— record in first 5 innings: 9-3-3
— He is 10-0, 2.19 in 15 starts vs New York

— Dodgers are 51-15 in their last 66 games.
— Los Angeles is 45-23 on road.
— under 4-1 last five games
— scored run in first inning: 48-129
— record in first 5 innings: 75-30-24
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4.1-4-1

— Bassitt is 4-0, 2.70 in his last five starts
— Mets are 16-8 in his starts.
— over 12-6 last 18
— allowed run in first inning: 4-24
— record in first 5 innings: 15-5-4
— He is 0-2, 5.25 in two starts vs Los Angeles.

— Mets are 7-5 in their last 12 games.
— Mets are 44-21 at home.
— under 8-2 last ten games.
— scored run in first inning: 47-131
— record in first 5 innings: 71-34-26
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-3.2-2

Colorado (56-75) @ Atlanta (80-51)
— Kuhl is 0-2, 11.19 in his last three starts.
— Colorado is 6-11 in his last 17 starts.
— over 5-1 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 8-21
— record in first 5 innings: 4-11-6
— He is 1-0, 1.59 in three starts vs Atlanta.

— Colorado is 13-26 in its last 39 games.
— Rockies are 20-43 on road.
— under 5-1 last six games.
— scored run in first inning: 32-128
— record in first 5 innings: 34-70-24
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-4-2.1

— Strider is 2-0, 1.59 in his last three starts.
— Braves are 5-1 in his last six starts
— over 7-0 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 1-16
— record in first 5 innings: 8-5-3
— He is 0-0, 2.25 in one start vs Colorado.

— Braves are 16-5 in their last 21 games.
— Atlanta is 43-25 at home.
— over 4-2 last six games.
— scored run in first inning: 35-131
— record in first 5 innings: 72-43-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2.1-4-2

Milwaukee (69-60) @ Arizona (61-68)
— Woodruff is 0-0, 2.16 in his last three starts.
— Brewers are 6-1 in his last seven starts
— over 7-3-1 road starts
— allowed run in first inning: 3-20
— record in first 5 innings: 11-5-4
— He is 2-0, 3.68 in four starts vs Arizona.

— Brewers won four of last five games.
— Milwaukee is 34-34 on road.
— under 4-2 last six games
— scored run in first inning: 43-129
— record in first 5 innings: 56-47-26
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-4-4

— Kelly is 1-0, 2.66 in his last three starts.
— Arizona is 13-13 in his starts
— over 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 8-26
— record in first 5 innings: 13-7-6
— He is 1-1, 4.44 in four starts vs Milwaukee.

— Diamondbacks won six of last eight games.
— Arizona is 34-33 at home.
— over 9-1 last ten games
— scored run in first inning: 36-129
— record in first 5 innings: 54-44-31
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 6-2-5

American League
Seattle (72-58) @ Detroit (50-80)
— Gilbert is 0-1, 6.34 in his last six starts.
— Seattle is 2-5 in his last seven starts
— under 14-11-1
— allowed run in first inning: 5-26
— record in first 5 innings: 13-10-3
— He is 0-1, 10.13 in one start vs Detroit.

— Mariners are 16-9 in their last 25 games.
— Seattle is 37-30 on road.
— under 6-1-1 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 39-129
— record in first 5 innings: 52-56-21
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-4-3

— Rodriguez is 2-0, 0.82 in his last two starts.
— Tigers are 4-6 in his starts.
— over 7-3
— allowed run in first inning: 4-10
— record in first 5 innings: 4-6
— He is 4-3, 3.46 in nine starts vs Seattle.

— Tigers are 14-32 in their last 46 games.
— Detroit is 29-37 at home.
— under 21-8-2 last 31 games
— scored run in first inning: 26-130
— record in first 5 innings: 43-68-19
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-6.2-4.1

Kansas City (53-78) @ White Sox (64-66)
— Mengden is making his first ‘22 start.
— He is 17-20, 4.60 in 48 career starts
— His last start was in 2020, for the A’s.
— allowed run in first inning: 0-0
— record in first 5 innings: 0-0
— He is 1-0, 5.40 in two starts vs Chicago.

— Kansas City is 6-12 in its last 18 games.
— Royals are 21-41 on road.
— over 6-2 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 35-131
— record in first 5 innings: 50-62-21
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-4.1-2

— Cueto is 2-1, 3.74 in his last three starts.
— White Sox are 3-6 in his home starts.
— under 4-2 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 4-18
— record in first 5 innings: 6-10-2
— He is 1-3, 3.68 in six starts vs Kansas City.

— White Sox are 2-7 in their last nine games.
— Chicago is 31-35 at home.
— over 5-4 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 32-130
— record in first 5 innings: 51-63-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-3.2-2

Baltimore (68-61) @ Cleveland (68-60)
— Bradish is 1-1, 1.35 in his last two starts.
— Orioles are 10-6 in his starts.
— over 8-3 last 11 starts
— allowed run in first inning: 6-16
— record in first 5 innings: 6-8-2
— He hasn’t pitched against Cleveland.

— Orioles are 9-6 in their last 15 games.
— Baltimore is 31-37 on road.
— under 13-3 last 16 games.
— scored run in first inning: 27-129
— record in first 5 innings: 51-57-21
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-3.1-2.1

— Bieber is 4-1, 2.01 in his last six starts.
— Guardians are 15-9 in his starts.
— under 9-5 last 14
— allowed run in first inning: 3-24
— record in first 5 innings: 12-7-5
— He is 0-1, 1.74 in two starts vs Baltimore.

— Guardians are 14-7 in their last 21 games.
— Cleveland is 33-26 at home.
— under 16-3-2 last 21 games.
— scored run in first inning: 39-127
— record in first 5 innings: 51-51-25
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-3-4

Texas (58-71) @ Boston (63-68)
— Otto is 2-0, 3.24 in his last three starts.
— Rangers are 9-11 in his starts
— under 7-4 last 11 starts
— allowed run in first inning: 5-20
— record in first 5 innings: 6-12-2
— He gave up eight runs in 4 IP, in one start vs Boston.

— Rangers lost their last four games.
— Texas is 30-33 on road.
— over 6-1 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 34-129
— record in first 5 innings: 45-57-27
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-4-4

— Hill is 2-0, 1.50 in his last two starts.
— Red Sox are 10-9 in his starts.
— under 3-1 last four at home
— allowed run in first inning: 8-19
— record in first 5 innings: 8-7-4
— He is 3-0, 2.86 in four starts vs Texas.

— Red Sox are 9-10 in last 19 games.
— Boston is 31-34 at home.
— over 9-5 last fourteen games.
— scored run in first inning: 33-131
— record in first 5 innings: 50-52-29
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-3.2-3

Interleague game
A’s (49-82) @ Washington (44-86)
— Waldichuk is making his MLB debut.
— He was 2-4, 3.93 in 15 AAA starts this year.
— under 0-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-0
— record in first 5 innings: 0-0
— He hasn’t pitched against Washington.

— A’s won three of last four games.
— Oakland is 27-39 on road.
— under 6-3 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 31-131
— record in first 5 innings: 42-69-20
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-3.2-2.1

— Espino is 0-2, 5.51 in his last three starts.
— Washington is 5-9 in his starts.
— over 7-6-1
— allowed run in first inning: 4-14
— record in first 5 innings: 3-5-6
— He allowed a run in 1.1 IP in relief vs Oakland

— Washington is 7-9 in its last 16 games.
— Nationals are 21-47 at home.
— under 9-3 last 12 games.
— scored run in first inning: 34-130
— record in first 5 innings: 35-79-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-6.1-2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-01-2022, 05:14 AM

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Thursday, SEPTEMBER 1, 2022
9/01 04:00 PM PT / 7:00 PM ET

CF (143) WEST VIRGINIA VS (144) PITTSBURGH

Take: (144) PITTSBURGH

Reason: Pitt comes into this season with high hopes, riding a top defense and a No 17 preseason ranking. Pitt also has a good QB transfer in Keldon Slovis who replaces Kenny Pickett. Sloves comes over from USC where he had 30 TD's as a freshman. Pitt is one of the favorites to win the ACC along with Clemson and Florida State. They also have a trio of running backs. West Virginia has JT Daniels to lead the charge. Daniels comes over from Georgia via the Transfer portal. Expect Daniels to be under pressure all game long from this very good Pitt rushing attack. This should be a dominating performance by Pitt tonight. Your free play is on Pittsburgh.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-01-2022, 08:08 AM

Canterbury Park Picks - Thursday, September 1, 2022

Race 1: 6-5-3-2
Race 2: 2-3-6-5
Race 3: 3-1-10-4
Race 4: 3-1-8-2
Race 5: 8-1-4-6
Race 6: 3-7-1-4
Race 7: 1-3-7-4
Race 8: 6-3-1-5
Race 9: 2-7-1-5
Race 10: 1-4-5-3
**Most Likely Winner: She's Xtremely Hot #2 (Race 2)**
**Best Value: Red's MR Z #3 (Race 3)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-01-2022, 08:09 AM

Charles Town Picks - Thursday, September 1, 2022

Race 1: 2-6-3-1
Race 2: 1-5-3-6
Race 3: 3-2-1-8
Race 4: 4-1-2-5
Race 5: 2-1-8-9
Race 6: 5-3-7-1
Race 7: 8-5-1-3
Race 8: 6-1-7-4
**Most Likely Winner: Magnetique #3 (Race 3)**
**Best Value: Shacklefords Storm #8 (Race 7)**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-01-2022, 08:09 AM

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club Picks: Thursday, September 1, 2022

Race 1: 5-1-8-4
Race 2: 1-5-3-2
Race 3: 4-2-6-8
Race 4: 7-4-2-6
Race 5: 6-8-4-5
Race 6: 1-8-3-6
Race 7: 2-7-4-5
Race 8: 6-3-11-4
Most Likely Winner: He's A Candy Man #1 (Race 6)
Best Value: Jibber Jabber #4 (Race 3)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-01-2022, 08:09 AM

Kentucky Downs Picks: Thursday, September 1, 2022

Race 1: 3-10-1-12
Race 2: 12-3-7-6
Race 3: 6-7-3-5
Race 4: 11-4-2-9
Race 5: 2-11-4-6
Race 6: 5-7-3-9
Race 7: 6-7-1-12
Race 8: 2-10-6-11
Race 9: 4-1-5-12
Race 10: 3-7-11-8
Most Likely Winner: Max K.O. #6 (Race 7)
Best Value: Peace Achieved #4 (Race 9)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-01-2022, 08:10 AM

Saratoga Picks: Thursday, September 1, 2022

Race 1: 6-2-3-8
Race 2: 1-7-2-4
Race 3: 5-4-8-6
Race 4: 2-5-3-4
Race 5: 6-3-4-2
Race 6: 10-5-7-3
Race 7: 1-8-6-2
Race 8: 2-1-3-5
Race 9: 3-6-8-5
Race 10: 3-5-6-8
Race 11: 8-3-6-9
Most Likely Winner: Antares #10 (Race 6)
Best Value: Flop Shot #2 (Race 4)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-01-2022, 08:10 AM

Today’s Free Horse Picks – Thursday, September 1st 2022
By Reggie Garrett

We are covering 5 tracks on Thursday, September 1st, 2022. Reggie Garrett has his picks for each race at Horseshoe Indianapolis, Woodbine and more. Good luck and enjoy!

Del Mar – 1:00 PT
Race 1: 5 Practical Impact
Race 2: 1 Ko Olina
Race 3: 6 Octane
Race 4: 3 Laughing Legacy
Race 5: 4 Cool Your Jets
Race 6: 1 He’s a Candy Man
Race 7: 4 Commander
Race 8: 11 Arrest

Horseshoe Indianapolis – 2:10 ET
Race 1: 4 Bootdaddy Justice
Race 2: 2 Malibu Classic
Race 3: 6 Winging Ways
Race 4: 3 Hooperdrivesthboat
Race 5: 7 Moonshine Now
Race 6: 4 Sweepinjustice
Race 7: 8 Ms Temptation
Race 8: 2 Miss Luv Shack
Race 9: 3 Jess a Lil Bit Hero

Kentucky Downs – 12:25 CT
Race 1: 10 Carnaby Street
Race 2: 7 Hawk of War
Race 3: 7 Federalist Papers
Race 4: 12 Decanted
Race 5: 2 Red Ghost
Race 6: 3 National Security
Race 7: 1 Therapist
Race 8: 9 Fast as Flight
Race 9: 5 Atone
Race 10: 8 Mint

Saratoga – 1:05 ET
Race 1: 2 Freddy Flintshire
Race 2: 7 Casalsa
Race 3: 8 Bourbon and Honey
Race 4: 2 Flop Shot
Race 5: 3 Sweet Willemina
Race 6: 10 Antares
Race 7: 4 Command Point
Race 8: 3 Invaluable
Race 9: 8 Illicit
Race 10: 5 Idea Generation
Race 11: 3 Got the Gold

Woodbine – 4:50 ET
Race 1: 6 Unspeakable
Race 2: 6 Henry’s Gamble
Race 3: 5 Someone Else
Race 4: 3 Lets Run Two
Race 5: 4 Shes the North
Race 6: 1 Moon Over Montana
Race 7: 6 Tempo Madness
Race 8: 2 Spooky Spice

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-01-2022, 08:10 AM

Saratoga Picks: Calendar flips to P.G. Johnson on September 1
By J.N. Campbell

Saratoga Picks: Thursday, September 1, 2022

Race 1: 6-2-3-8
Race 2: 1-7-2-4
Race 3: 5-4-8-6
Race 4: 2-5-3-4
Race 5: 6-3-4-2
Race 6: 10-5-7-3
Race 7: 1-8-6-2
Race 8: 2-1-3-5
Race 9: 3-6-8-5
Race 10: 3-5-6-8
Race 11: 8-3-6-9
Most Likely Winner: Antares #10 (Race 6)
Best Value: Flop Shot #2 (Race 4)

Most Likely Winner: (Race 6: Antares #10, 7/2):

I know Wesley Ward’s 2-yr-old “win” ratios at Saratoga do not look as sparkling as they do at Keeneland, but that doesn’t mean that you should steer clear of all of them. Here is a gelding by American Pharoah that is going to be making his debut at The Spa. That is no easy chore, but he has some plusses to him. Not only does he have Ward’s conditioning methods behind him, but Jose Ortiz knows how to hustle a mount out of the gate on the grass. I am pretty interested to see how the offspring of Alpha Centauri takes to the green. If you ever saw that big, yet graceful, Jessica Harrington runner, then you know what I am talking about. She was a champion, and this one has the opportunity to be as well.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #10

Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 4: Flop Shot #2, 4/1):

There are times when targeting the higher-priced Chad Brown entry can be profitable. Peter Brant owns some very expensive racehorses, and this gelding by New Approach (IRE) is no exception. He paid nearly a million for this one, but he has yet to live up to that number when it comes to U.S. victories. This is the perfect chance to get on board. Last out, in an OC80kn3x, Manny Franco had difficulty getting him in gear, and the result was extremely poor. Coming back, expect the jockey (who is having a solid Meet), to be in a much better position. Being forwardly placed will be the key. Is there a chance this Brown will end up being more like 5/1 or 6/1? Here’s to hoping …

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #2 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)

Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 10: Turf, 1 1/16th, P.G. Johnson S., $150k, 2F):

While Irad Ortiz and Joel Rosario serve their “days,” the turf will become a battleground for Flavien Prat, Jose Ortiz, and Luis Saez. All these fellows have the requisite skills to get the job done in this “feature.” Prat is aboard Chad Brown’s Idea Generation #5, a Klaravich-owned filly that is well-bred by Dubawi (IRE). She cost Seth Klarman almost a half million, and her debut was a betting flop … she only ran for purse money. I think her ability is sound, as are her bloodlines, but we all know that she will probably be an underlay when this race goes off. Jose Ortiz’s mount is interesting, and could be a potential short price. Horacio De Paz has had some winners at The Spa Meet, and Be Your Best #6 certainly impressed when she cruised to victory to break her maiden in her only race to-date. If she can take a step forward, then she is a player. However, it makes me nervous when a “1st out” runner scores … My top selection is not either entry. Instead, I like Saez’s ride … Fausto Gutierrez’s Pachuca #3. Here is a filly by Ghostzapper; she is a St. George Stable homebred that is making her 1st start on the grass. Her bloodlines could support such a move, and I like that Saez gets the call. His aggressive style, especially when it counts down the lane is something to behold. If you could get 8/1 on this runner, then that would be an excellent price. Gutierrez continues to be one of the most underrated trainers in America, despite his success last year with Letruska. Time to head to the Inner Turf …

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Trifecta Cold, 3 w 5 w 6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-01-2022, 08:10 AM

Daily Racing Tips – Sale – September 1st

Home - Expert Tips - Harry White - Daily Racing Tips – Sale – September 1st

Mark Hunter

RSN Expert Form Analyst Mark Hunter has the best Daily Racing Tips for the meeting at
Sale on Thursday the 1st of September for the RSN Punter.

Along with our Daily Racing Tips, you’ll find Greyhound and Harness Tips, plus Interstate Racing Tips, each and every day of the week with RSN927’s Expert Tipsters and race-callers.

Rail Position: Out 7m Entire Circuit
Dual Track Meeting: N
Track Type: Turf
Track Condition: Soft 5
Weather: Overcast
Penetrometer: 6
Mark Hunter Sale Tips

Sale, 1st September 2022

Race 1 Selections: 9,6,3,2
Race 2 Selections:1,2,5,12
Race 3 Selections: 7,9,6,5
Race 4 Selections: 12,10,2,11
Race 5 Selections: 3,5,6,2
Race 6 Selections: 7,9,1,5
Race 7 Selections: 8,10,4,2
Race 8 Selections: 3,2,10,5
Best Bet

Race 5 Number 3 PROWLING
Best Value

Race 8 Number 3 FLORIDA DREAM
Quaddie

Quaddie 1: 2,3,4,5,6,7
Quaddie 2: 1,7,9
Quaddie 3: 1,2,4,8,10
Quaddie 4: 2,3,5,6,10
Play Of The Day

Daily Double

Leg 1 – 1,7,9
Leg 2 – 3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-01-2022, 08:11 AM

Spa selections 2022: Saratoga picks September 1
Joseph Aiello

Spa selections 2022: Saratoga picks September 1
In Spa Selections, our correspondent provides his Saratoga picks for key races on today’s Saratoga card!

Race 1 – Michael G. Walsh Novice Stakes

1. #4 Theocrat (8-1) – Came off the pace with an impressive closing trip from sixteen lengths back, and may have found his preferred distance past two miles

2. #2 Freddy Flintshire (5-2) – Winner of his last two including a dominant performance last time over this track, and seems to be in top form entering his first stakes try

3. #6 Scorpion’s Revenge (3-1) – Comes off a stakes win and has run well off the layoff, plus is the only of this field to win at the distance

4. #5 Decisive Triumph (5-1) – Almost always grabs the lead and has run in four straight stakes races, but has some winning troubles with a litany of second place finishes

Race 9 – Maiden 105k

1. #1 Tell Me When (5-1) – Goes dirt to turf after a couple promising efforts, and should be a better price than this, plus Saez will have her going early

2. #6 More Than a Diva (8-1) – This grey filly was purchased for over a quarter of a million, so has some hope here and gets Jose Ortiz

3. #8 Illicit (4-1) – This filly by Into Mischief went out a tad too fast first time, but can still be a gate to wire threat with a bit slower of a trip this time around

4. #4 Ticker Tape Home (6-1) – Ran much better at six furlongs than going two turns last time, so cutting back to five and a half should lead to a better result here

Race 10 – P. G. Johnson Stakes

1. #5 Idea Generation (5-2) – Ran well in her debut that ended up being refunded after an outrider mistakenly told riders to pull up, but finished strong and might be the best here

2. #6 Be Your Best (7-5) – Didn’t have much pace to close into in her debut but still won by three lengths, and compares well to Idea Generation’s interesting debut

3. #1 Lady Jasmine (6-1) – Sat off slower fractions first time out to win, and will likely need to go a bit faster this time to be a true contender here

4. #3 Pachuca (8-1) – Made a strong move in a stakes last time at Ellis Park, but will need to adjust to turf and take a step forward even if the better post should help

Race 11 – Claiming 16000n2L

1. #6 Be the Boss (6-1) – Finished a close eighth in back to back tries over this track, and drops to a lower level claimer with plenty of horses who do not seem to want to win

2. #8 Power Agenda (9-2) – The last two look pretty brutal, but at one point Todd Pletcher had this colt by Nyquist on the Hopeful trail, and his speed figures from last year win here

3. #3 Got the Gold (3-1) – A bit more consistent than most here, hitting the board in half of his tries on dirt, so appears to be a good bet to at least finish in the money

4. #9 Once a Giant (7-2) – Has run decently when he breaks, and tries his second in a row at this level which may be enough for a good effort only if he grabs the lead

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-01-2022, 08:11 AM

Robin Goodfellow's racing tips: Best bets for Thursday September 1

By Sam Turner For Mailonline

Sportsmail's racing expert Robin Goodfellow delivers his tips for Thursday's race meetings at Salisbury, Windsor, Haydock and Sedgefield.

SAILSBURY

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

1.50 Bugle Major

2.20 Roman Spring

2.50 Doom

3.20 All The Time

3.55 Crazy Luck (nb)

4.26 Grey Fox

4.56 General Lee

GIMCRACK

1.50 Ajrad

2.20 Circle of Fire

2.50 Quantum Light

3.20 Maria Branwell (nb)

3.55 Makarova

4.26 Cabinet Of Clowns

4.56 Conservative

Newmarket – 2.20 Circle of Fire (nb); 2.50 Eximious (nap).
ADVERTISEMENT

Northerner – 3.20 Maria Branwell (nb)

WINDSOR

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

4.30 Equality

5.00 Lost Angel

5.30 Dora Penny

6.00 Island Bandit

6.30 Majestic

7.00 Sanitiser

7.30 Silverscape

GIMCRACK

4.30 Rum Cocktail

5.00 Gemcutter

5.30 Monsieur Kodi

6.00 Snapcracklepop

6.30 Majestic

7.00 Winforglory

7.30 Merlin’s Beard

HAYDOCK

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

1.40 Carrigillihy

2.10 Polyphonic (nap)

2.40 Sakheer

3.10 Garden Route

3.40 Oscar’s Sister

4.15 Dubai Poet

4.45 Terra Mitica

GIMCRACK

1.40 Red Derek

2.10 Polyphonic

2.40 Sakheer

3.10 Castle Way

3.40 Oscar’s Sister

4.15 Dubai Poet (nap)

4.45 Terra Mitica

NORTHERNER – 2.10 Polyphonic (nap)

SEDGEFIELD

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

1.00 My Little Toni

1.30 Cool Country

2.00 El Borracho

2.30 Raecius Felix 3.00 Leopolds Rock

3.30 Blue Sans

4.05 Thatbeatsbanagher

GIMCRACK

1.00 My Little Toni

1.30 Cool Country

2.00 Sonning

2.30 Onenightintown 3.00 Leopolds Rock

3.30 Blue Sans

4.05 Paris Texas

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-01-2022, 08:12 AM

Saratoga Horses in Focus for Thursday, September 1
Posted on August 30, 2022 by David Aragona

RACE 3: RUN FOR COVER (#7)

A few of the main players in this auction-restricted 2-year-old maiden are exiting a race at the same level from Aug. 5. Sirius Light (#4) achieved the best result that day, improving significantly with the switch to turf. She got steadied soon after the start and found herself last of 10 runners moving down the backstretch. However, she got a very good trip after that, saving ground behind a fast pace before rallying well through the lane to get up for second. She’s the one to beat, but she figures to be favored here whereas she was 19-1 last time. Influentialous (#6) was one of those contesting the pace, so she obviously has a right to run better. My top pick is Run for Cover (#7), who finished a little farther back in the pack. However, this filly had to be used hard early breaking the rail that day. She rushed up to chase Influentialous before having to alter course around that rival on the far turn. She moved up menacingly at the top of the stretch but seemed to take an awkward step coming off the turn after faded thereafter. She had worked well into her debut and I think she’s capable of better. Mark Casse is 13 for 52 (25%, $2.55 ROI) with 2-year-old maiden second time starters in turf sprints over the past 5 years. There are also a couple of first time turfers that merit consideration. Numero Seis (#5) has damside pedigree, but I’m not a fan of Frosted as a sire. Bourbon and Honey (#8) is a little more interesting, as she exits a live race, and is by good turf sire Street Boss out of a dam who won 5 times on this surface.

RACE 6: BALSA (#5)

Inflation Nation (#6) is obviously the one to beat off his encouraging debut performance in July. Reserved off a fast pace in the early going, he made what seemed like a winning move to range up alongside leader Appraise in midstretch before getting turned away by that rival. Despite hanging a bit, he still earned a strong 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the performance, and a repeat of that effort will make him awfully tough to beat. Though, it is worth noting that Appraise did return to disappoint slightly in his next start against stakes company. I prefer another runner with experience who is actually switching surfaces. Balsa (#5) sprinted on dirt in his debut and showed plenty of speed before backing up through the stretch. He was a little chilly on the tote board that day and probably needed that experience. He’s now switching over a surface that he’s bred to handle, as he’s by excellent turf sire Street Boss out of a dam who won sprinting on grass. He’s worked well since the debut, accomplishing a nice team drill in company with Sanford winner Mo Strike a couple of weeks ago. I expect a much better performance this time. There are also a couple of first time starters who interest me. Listentothemusic (#4) has some grass pedigree and has trained well into his debut. Mo Saturdays (#7) also seems quite dangerous for Al Stall, who is 5 for 20 (25%, $5.20 ROI) with first time starters in turf sprints over 5 years. He has enough grass pedigree, and he’s trained very forwardly into this debut, going well in company with recent debut winner Gilcrease a few weeks ago.

RACE 7: OUR JESSICA (#7)

I suppose the public will default to Chad Brown and make Dream of Change (#9) the favorite in this conditioned claimer. She is dropping in for a tag for the first time, but I can’t say that I’m particularly encouraged by her form. She wasn’t facing the toughest allowance field at Monmouth last time and had her chance to win while just hanging between horses in the stretch. A repeat of that performance may put her in the winner’s circle here, but I didn’t want to pick her at a short price. Command Point (#4) may also attract some support as she makes her second start off the layoff for Rob Atras. She had earned superior speed figures when in George Weaver’s barn last year, but it’s unclear if she’s still capable of producing that form. She was against a slow pace in her return, but she saved all the ground and still didn’t have much of a response through the lane. I prefer Our Jessica (#7) from that Aug. 5 affair. She finished one spot behind Command Point, but undoubtedly had the tougher trip. For whatever reason, Jose Ortiz made no attempt to get her forward, grabbing her out of the gate and taking her immediately to last place. She predictably got rank under that restraint as the pace slowed down into the clubhouse turn and fought her rider while going wide into the bend. She proceeded in the 2 to 3-path for the rest of her trip, never put in a position to be effective. I think she’s capable of better and she appeared to be improving when she broke her maiden against weaker two back. I like the rider switch to John Velazquez, who should have her more forward this time.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-01-2022, 08:12 AM

Penn National Picks - Thursday, September 1, 2022

Race 1: 2-6-5-3
Race 2: 6-3-2-7
Race 3: 5-4-9-6
Race 4: 1-9-5-4
Race 5: 5-2-1-6
Race 6: 2-7-9-8
Race 7: 5-6-3-2
Race 8: 3-7-6-2
**Most Likely Winner: Ioanna (Race 4)**
**Best Value: Bedazzling (Race 7)**

Thursday 9/1/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Thursday 9/1/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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