Sunday 9/4/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Jeremy Plonk's Horse Racing picks for Sunday 9/4
By Jeremy Plonk

Del Mar Race No. 3 (5 p.m. ET/2 p.m. PT

#8 Rhino (7-2 ML)

Second-time starter exits solid debut third from the difficult far-outside post position, where young horses often get lost in the open space. Expecting more early interest today breaking with horses on both sides of him. No apparent world-beaters in this maiden field, so if he breaks with any interest, look out. Win bet. Daily Double 8-3 to next pick.

Del Mar Race No. 4 (5:30 p.m. ET/2:30 p.m. PT)

#3 Dancing Crane (5-1)

Pure turf sprint speed catches a field that doesn't really have that much early pace expected for this distance. Ideal post position draw where he's quicker than the pair inside of him. Pops, saves all the ground and plays catch me if you can. Jockey Hector Berrios boasts $1.49 ROI for every $1 bet on his turf horses at the Del Mar meet. Win bet.

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What You Need to Know - Saratoga | Sunday, September 4, 2022

by Jeff Siegel

SARATOGA SPOTLIGHT RACES:

First Race – Post: 12:35 ET
Top Pick: 8-Vacation Dance (9/2)

Although we have seen this colt breeze locally, we remember him from the Timonium sale last May when he brought $90,000 through the ring after breezing a furlong around the bullring in 10 1/5 seconds while displaying good action and excellent speed. Although the John Kimmel barn has never had a great percentage with first time starters, this colt may prove to be the exception to the rule. The son of The Lieutenant has been given a solid foundation of drills to be fit and ready in this New York-bred grass sprint, so in a field in which the other newcomers have not been impressive, let’s take a flier with this colt as a win play and rolling exotic single at or near his morning line of 9/2.

Seventh Race: Post: 3:53 ET
Top Pick: 4-Free Look (3-1)

Displayed plenty of ability in her debut when overcoming a poor start, traffic trouble on the turn and then a wide trip into the lane to finish best of all when third behind subsequent stakes winner Be Your Best over this course and distance in late July and should step forward in a big way today with that bit of experience behind her. The daughter of Tapit returns Flavian Prate, gets much better post today, and with clear sailing should be along in plenty of time for trainer Chad Brown (27% with second time starters). She is listed at 3-1 on the morning line and is worth a good gamble at that number.

*

SARATOGA RECOMMENDED ROLLING EXOTIC STRATEGIES:

(Races 1-5)
1st race: 8-Vacation Dance
2nd race: 3-Happy Farm
3rd race: 7-Charge Account3-Blue Atlas; 5-Adelaide Miss
4th race: 5-Cousteau; 10-Ampersand
5th race: 6-Sheriff Bianco; 8-Athenry
6th race: 4-Pure Pauline; 8-My Betsy; 5-Stunningly; 7-Vahva

(Races 7-12)
7th race: 4-Free Look
8th race: 4-Boston Post Road; 1-Piece of My Heart; 7-Dealing Justice
9th race: 1a-Catch That Party 5-Frank’s Art; 10-Citizen K
10th race: 3-La Victoria; 4-Cape Cod Causeway; 2-Succulent
11th race: 9-Wonder Wheel; 1-Kaling
12th race: 1-Tough Street/1a-Jet Set Juliet

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SARATOGA WORKOUT ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY:


FIFTH RACE:

Athenry (August 17, Saratoga, 5f, 1:01b). Grade: B
Nice breeze while mostly on his own, final quarter mile in :25.1. Better on grass, so this was a good move. Maintains his edge.
View Workout Video


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SIXTH RACE:

Pure Pauline (August 21, Saratoga, 4f, :47.1bg). Grade: B+
Ridden most of the way from the gate to prove clearly best over Sister Maha (4f, :47.3b), picking up steam midway and finishing with something left. Curlin filly may not be super quick, so we suspect she will be most comfortable as the distances increase. Good mover, nice prospect.
View Workout Video

Vahva (August 21, Saratoga, 5f, 1:00b). Grade: B+
Cruise control outside Cagliostro (same time) for DeVaux, plenty left late with a final quarter in :25.2. Have to think she can improve with a race under her belt. May prefer patient handling.
View Workout Video


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ELEVENTH RACE:

Kaling (August 28, Saratoga, 4f, :48.1b). Grade: B+
Breezing inside recent fast maiden winner Chocolate Gelato (same time) for T. Pletcher, plenty left in visually pleasing half mile drill. Loads up upside, for sure. Was impressive in the a.m. before her maiden win and looks even better since. Gorgeous mover.
View Workout Video

Wonder Wheel (August 19, Saratoga, 5f, :59.2b). Grade: A
Inside Bring theband Home (5f, 1:00.1b) and was tons best while drawing clear in the final furlong and then galloping out with plenty left, strictly on her own, never asked at any stage. Undefeated filly from Kentucky arrives fit and ready and will be hard to beat in the Spinaway Stakes-G1,

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What You Need to Know - Del Mar | Sunday, September 4, 2022

by Jeff Siegel

DEL MAR SPOTLIGHT RACES:

First Race – Post: 1:00 PT
Top Pick: 5-Carla (8/5)

This looks like a high quality prospect for trainer Bob Baffert and we’re expecting the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro to justify in her 8/5 morning line status. A series of sharp workouts should have plenty fit and cranked up, and her most recent drill, a five furlong gate move in :59.4 August 27 (see below), was especially impressive. If she leaves with her field and makes no mistakes, this $950,000 yearling purchase should go about her business and proceed from there to bigger and better things.


Third Race: Post: 2:00 PT
Top Pick: 4-Mystic Flyer 8-1)

This second time starter seems certain to improve big time in this maiden state-bred sprint after encountering more than his share of trouble in his debut that severely compromised his chances. That he managed to finish fourth after being shut off and pinched back down the backstretch and then having to steady on the turn is an indication of what kind of natural talent he has, so if this son of Dancing Candy can leave with his field and secure a good stalking position he could pull off a surprise. Listed at 8-1 on the morning line, the Michael McCarthy-trained gelding is worth using in the win pool and in exactas and trifectas with the other main contenders, 8-Rhino, and 7-Golf Drama.

*

DEL MAR RECOMMENDED ROLLING EXOTIC STRATEGIES:

(Races 1-5)
1st race: 5-Carla
2nd race: 1-Hail Freedom; 6-Impossible Task; 3-American Admiral
3rd race: 4-Mystic Flyer; 8-Rhino; 7-Golf Drama
4th race: 13-Storming Lady; 3-Dancing Crane; 1-Invincibella
5th race: 1-Desert Dawn; 5-Under the Stars

(Races 5-8)
6th race: 8-Primer Dimer; 2-Economical; 4-Rocky Gibraltar
7th race: 4-Helens Well; 9-Briefcase Girl; 2-Emerald Lake
8th race: 11-Hopkins
9th race: 9-Lieutenant Dan; 4-Lane Way; 8-Coulthard
10th race: 10-Fun to Dream 11-Awake At Midnyte
11th race: 3-Buzz of New York; 8-Lady Jae; 6-Agreetodisagree

DEL MAR WORKOUT ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY:

FIRST RACE:

Carla (August 27, Del Mar, 5f, :59.4hg). Grade: B+
Medaglia d’Oro juvenile filly was very impressive in gate work for B. Baffert, splits of :23 flat, :34.2, :46.2 and :59.4 on our watches while outside and slightly best over Fast and Shiny (same time. Looks very much like a win-early type and seems plenty fit.
View Workout Video


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THIRD RACE:

Rhino (August 28, Del Mar, 4f, :48.2h). Grade: B
Breezing through the lane inside Driver’s Ed (4f, :48.1h), finishing slightly in front without being asked for his best, final quarter in :24 flat. Should step forward following third place finish in debut but probably won’t show his best stuff until tried over a distance of ground.
View Workout Video


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EIGHTH RACE:

Hopkins (August 29, Del Mar, 5f, :59.4hg). Grade: A-
Miles best over Worcester (4f, :49hg) in very impressive gate drill for B. Baffert, never really asked while going strongly throughout, splits of :23.4 (hard held), :35.2, :47.2 and :59.4, plenty left late and able to go faster if turned loose. Earned a stakes-quality speed figure when second in his only outing last December and appears to be returning will all of his speed. Quality Road colt should be a very short priced vs. maidens.
View Workout Video


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NINTH RACE:

Lane Way (August 19, Del Mar, 5f, 1:00.2h). Grade: B+
Cruise control without ever being asked, plenty left while staying on edge. Came out of his comeback race in good order and seems very likely to step forward with that prep behind him.
View Workout Video

Lieutenant Dan (August 29, Del Mar, 5f, 1:02.3h). Grade: B+
Just galloping early and then finished on his own courage while coming home nicely, final quarter in :24.3 for S. Miyadi. Been away since his superior runner-up effort in the BC Turf Spring last November and while there is nothing flashy on the work tab he does have a history of firing fresh. Looks good.
View Workout Video


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TENTH RACE:

Fun to Dream (August 28, Del Mar, 5f, 1:01.1h). Grade: B+
Stride for stride outside Under the Stars (same time), slow early but strong late while continuing out to the seven furlong pole under mild coaxing only, a couple of ticks faster on our watches than official final time. Won the Fleet Treat Stakes by herself but that was a state-bred affair, so she still has all of her conditions.
View Workout Video

Awake At Midnyte (August 28, Del Mar, 5f, :59.4hg). Grade: B
Easy early, ridden late and responded well enough to prove bet over Suburban Prince (5f, 1:00.2h) for D. O’Neil, splits of :23.1, :35 flat, :47.1 and 1:00 flat on our watches, doing her best work late. Scheduled to add Lasix for her next start so improvement is likely. Probably most comfortable around one turn.

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Timonium picks 2022: GQ Approach September 4
Gary Quill

Timonium picks 2022: GQ Approach September 4
Racing returns to Timonium for its 2022 stand, and Gary Quill returns to The Racing Biz with Timonium picks and analysis for every race every day.

Race 1

#3 – To the Front (4-5): Which is typically not his running style (his name) but w/ Carlos Lopez in the irons, he might be
#4 – Zorb (7-2): Has flashed early speed but not the kind #5 displayed in his last start; just hope for an alert start
#5 – The Cairo Kid (7-2): Just 7 days ago earned 5-figures for a 4-furlong breeze as no rivals were up to the task in his first outing at The Big T; likely left enough in the tank for today

Race 2

#2 – Kozy’s Wildcat (1-1): Enjoying the Chalk City tip sheet yet? After this race, the prices will come, whether I tout them or not This cat has faced much better lately; jock/trainer combo good
#5 – Erawan (7-2): Gonna be tough to get a “W” as this colt is used to getting out of 2nd gear when this event distance ends
#3 – Aftermath (7-2): Ran to his (7-1) odds in first start after trainer B. Brooks claim at this level but rivals today are weaker

Race 3

#1 – Untouched Elegance (5-1): $ LONGSHOT $ Much the second best in solid effort at Del with jock who only wins at a 5% clip but will make Big T maiden voyage from tough post
#5 – Checotah(6-5): Was so impressive in winning here last Sunday, why not run it back? Jock J. Barbosa stays aboard
#3 – Lookingforanewspot (4-1): 9-year-old mare has quite a resume’ (77: 19-14-9), won last time she took a similar break

Race 4

#1 – She’s a Tripp (3-1): An 0-for-14 maiden who has PLACEd or SHOWed in half of her starts; these types usually continue to disappoint; last seen 2 months ago at Lrl losing by a neck
#6 – Kobe’s Girl (7-5): Here’s another who seeks diploma in 16th career start; seems to prefer a wet track (3:0-1-2) but that’s doubtful today; best chance is going gate-to-wire
#2 – Ellarouge (30-1): Lone 4 y.o. v. 3’s has been on the shelf since last Nov.; jock A. Delgado rode a winner on Friday at age 57, today he’s a day removed from his 58th birthday; if I were a betting man, he tries to take this one to the lead

Race 5

#5 – Assembly Point (3-1): Could turn out to be a prudent claim for trainer R. Sillaman as this gelding has back class
#3 – Our Hoisted Mast (3-1): Aggressive bug rider takes the reins on this one for first time and will try to lead at every pole
#2 – R Tenderoni (10-1): Also saddled by Sillaman, these gals (both filly and jock) take on the boys as they did in latest which resulted in a runner-up effort; steps up in class today

Race 6

#2 – Mavilus (4-1): A rousing endorsement as jock J. Ruiz who hasn’t had a mount at The Big T thus far comes in to ride two for trainer C. Mancilla but this one is why he’s here… IMHO
#5 – Acadian Girl (9-5): Exits a brief 2-month layoff while trying for a natural Hat Trick; has met the #2 and #6 multiple times w/ mixed results but has gotten better of both lately
#6 – Breviary (8-5): Just 8 days ago prevailed in the only stakes race at The Big T as 10-1 longshot; question the quick turnaround but in July she ran back in 9 days to win handily

Race 7

#2 – Read the Spec (3-1): * BEST BET * Yikes! Somewhere in the fairgrounds trainer D. Capuano is crying, “WHY?! We just got the GQ Kiss-of-Death!”; this 2 y.o. makes racing debut following a nice, extensive work pattern and his dam has produced 4 others who have all crossed the Finish Line first
#1 – Smart and Fast (3-1): Tough rail post but with 3 prior races, this Congrats colt should show early speed w/ blinkers
#9 – Hope He’s Fast (5-2): Trainer J. Robb’s barn is loaded w/ quality runners; must respect this 1st-time starter w/ X-Man

Race 8

Small field of 5 but could make an excuse for liking any of them; returns from 3-month layoff which has reenergized him in the past; only one to win at 6

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Steve Janus

Sep 04 '22, 1:35 PM in 2h
MLB | Rangers vs Red Sox

Play on: Rangers +115 at William Hill

1* Free Sharp Play on Rangers +115
The Rangers (+115) are worth a look as a small road dog against the Red Sox in Sunday's MLB action. I think with this line the books are begging you to take Boston. Texas comes in having lost 7 in a row, while the Red Sox enter on a 4-game winning streak. Most won't even look at the pitching matchup and will just blindly bet the Sox at this price. I'm going the other way. Boston simply can't be trusted to win with Josh Winckowski on the mound. He's got a 5.83 ERA and 1.563 WHIP in 13 starts. In his last 2 outings, he's given up 12 ER on 13 hits in 7 2/3 innings of work. Play the Rangers +115!

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Mike Lundin

Sep 04 '22, 1:35 PM in 2h
MLB | Marlins vs Braves

Play on: [B]Braves -1

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Mike Williams

Sep 04 '22, 1:35 PM in 2h
MLB | A's vs Orioles

Play on: A's +163 at circa

1* on A's +163

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Kenny Walker

Sep 04 '22, 1:40 PM in 3h
MLB | Royals vs Tigers

Play on: Royals +112 at circa

Free Pick on Royals

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Sal Michaels

Sep 04 '22, 2:15 PM in 3h
MLB | Cubs vs Cardinals

Play on: Cubs +170 at Caesars

Free Play on Cubs +170

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Black Widow

Sep 04 '22, 2:15 PM in 3h
MLB | CHC vs STL

Play on: OVER 7 -115

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Cubs/Cardinals over 7 -115

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AAA Sports

Sep 04 '22, 2:15 PM in 3h
MLB | Cubs vs Cardinals

Play on: [B]Cubs +1

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park

Gulfstream Park - Race 2	$1 Daily Double / $2 Quinella /$1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Super Hi 5 / $.50 Bet 3 (Races 2-3-4) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
Claiming $20,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $26,000 • Post: 12:55
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS OR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000, IF FOR $16,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * EYES OF CHAMPION: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. BOCA GUY : Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. PETER D: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at lea st 50. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. T VILLE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
7	EYES OF CHAMPION	5/2	5/1
1	BOCA GUY	12/1	5/1
2	PETER D	7/5	6/1
5	T VILLE	4/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	BOCA GUY	1	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	83	77	83.8	70.8	65.8
5	T VILLE	5	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	78	75	76.6	68.2	59.2
7	EYES OF CHAMPION	7	5/2	Trailer	83	83	64.6	76.3	71.3
2	PETER D	2	7/5	Trailer	90	86	52.6	80.7	74.2
6	MAJOR FRONTIER	6	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	81	86	74.5	67.8	60.8
3	VANCOUVER D'ORO	3	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	67	56	62.8	67.6	53.6
4	BADBADBOBBY	4	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	79	83	56.9	66.4	57.4

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Saratoga

09/04/22, SAR, Race 1, 12.35 ET
09/04/22,SAR,1,5 1/2F [Turf] 1:00:01 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $88,000. FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY. Weight, 119 lbs. (Non-Starters For A Claiming Price Of $40,000 Or Less In The Last 3 Starts Preferred). (If the Stewards consider it inadvisable to run this race on the turf course, this race will be run at Five and One Half Furlongs on the Main Track). (Rail at 12 feet).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	5	Curly Larry and Mo	7/2	Velazquez J R	Caramori Caio	FEWL	100	30.00	1.25/$1
098.7907	2	Bobby the Tank	5/2	Ortiz J L	Brown Chad C.	T	100	30.00	1.25/$1
097.3835	13	Twenty Six Black	4/1	Ortiz J L	De Paz Horacio		100	30.00	1.25/$1
095.5996	11	Disarmed	2/1	Prat F	Clement Christophe	JC	100	30.00	1.25/$1
095.1584	16	Radio Red	7/2	Rider TBA	Gargan Danny		100	30.00	1.25/$1
093.9887	8	Vacation Dance	9/2	Castellano J	Kimmel John C.		100	30.00	1.25/$1
093.5988	3	Nobilis	6/1	Cancel E	Weaver George		100	30.00	1.25/$1
093.2089	10	Chasin' You	8/1	Saez L	Lynch Natalia		100	30.00	1.25/$1
092.8190	1	Joyful Ghost	10/1	Lezcano J	Rice Linda		100	30.00	1.25/$1
092.6101	14	Blue Soldier	15/1	Camilo C D	Rohena Rafael Jose	S	100	30.00	1.25/$1
092.0392	4	Hot Rod Lincoln	12/1	McCarthy T	Rodriguez Rudy R.		100	30.00	1.25/$1
091.6493	7	Tater and Tot	15/1	Davis D	Englehart Jeffrey S.		100	30.00	1.25/$1
091.6493	15	Somama Beach	15/1	Cancel E	Ferraro James W.		100	30.00	1.25/$1
091.5322	6	Excalibrate(b+)	20/1	Samuel J L	Chichakly Amira		100	30.00	1.25/$1
090.4796	9	Exalted One	20/1	Davis J A	O'Brien Keith		100	30.00	1.25/$1
089.3131	12	Disco Demolition	10/1	Alvarado J	Lugovich Richard J.		100	30.00	1.25/$1

Top rated horse With "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - Win% 27.78, ROI 1.16/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -1.2093
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[All Turf] Race Purse Not Greater Than $100K

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No Springer for Tor today
Still no Rizzo for NYY also Torres out

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Moosomin at Marquis Downs - Race #3 - Post: 12:50pm - SS - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $4,500 Class Rating: 60

Rating:

#4 BELL RINGER (ML=4/1)
#1 DONNA'S BOY (ML=8/1)
#5 DISTINCT APPROVAL (ML=9/2)


BELL RINGER - I do like the fact this gelding is back in a race so quickly. A big drop down in class rating points from his August 29th race at Assiniboia Downs. Based on that data, I will give this animal the advantage. Don't throw this one out due to his last race at Assiniboia Downs where he finished fourth on a track listed as good. Expect better today. Look for this one to go all the way to the finish line at some decent odds right here. Ran fourth in last race, but not more than five from the lead at the end. DONNA'S BOY - This front running sort should benefit from this contest's shorter distance. Was in a $2,500 Claiming race at Lethbridge last time out. That event had a class figure of 77 and he is moving down today. A certain solid contender. Could be a possible overlay right here at morning line odds of 8/1. Finished fifth in last race at Lethbridge but was close at the finish. DISTINCT APPROVAL - This rider/conditioner duo has been producing a high winning percentage, right around 50. Sprinters that come back to the races quickly are generally good plays. Coming off a fifth place finish at Assiniboia Downs, some may pass this horse. I'm not. She just missed hitting the show spot, and has pretty good odds today. Sub-par effort in the last race at Assiniboia Downs was due to the off-going (she ended up fifth). Have to do better in this race under normal track conditions. This mare is rounding her way back into shape. Should perform well today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 BACOLI (ML=5/2), #2 CATALINA DREAMIN (ML=6/1),

BACOLI - Generally I need a sprinter to have some recent good showings in short distance affairs in order to play him. This gelding finished off the board on September 15th and wasn't close to winning last time around the track either. CATALINA DREAMIN - This less than sharp equine gave a lackluster effort last time finishing second. Can't expect a reversal of fortune today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #4 BELL RINGER on the win end if we get at least 4/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4,5] Total Cost: $6