Monday 9/5/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Monmouth Park Picks - Monday, September 5, 2022

Race 1: 3-1-6-5
Race 2: 2-3-5-4
Race 3: 3-5-6-1
Race 4: 5-8-2-1
Race 5: 5-1-3-4
Race 6: 2-1-6-5
Race 7: 7-4-1-3
Race 8: 1-5-3-6
Race 9: 2-7-6-4
Race 10: 5-2-3-1
**Most Likely Winner: Steel Drivin Man #3 (Race 3)**
**Best Value: Confectioner #2 (Race 6)**

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Parx Racing Picks - Monday, September 5, 2022

Race 1: 1-7-2-4
Race 2: 3-6-1-4
Race 3: 8-2-6-1
Race 4: 7-11-4-6
Race 5: 4-3-8-1
Race 6: 4-1-5-7
Race 7: 9-1-4-6
Race 8: 1-9-4-3
Race 9: 8-2-3-10
Race 10: 2-4-6-1
Race 11: 8-3-5-1
**Most Likely Winner: Gushing Oil #8 (Race 9)**
**Best Value: Sky Temple #8 (Race 3)**

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Woodbine Picks - Monday, September 5, 2022

Race 1: 7-2-1-5
Race 2: 4-8-3-1
Race 3: 3-6-7-1
Race 4: 5-1-3-6
Race 5: 3-1-7-2
Race 6: 4-6-9-2
Race 7: 4-1-9-5
Race 8: 7-2-4-1
Race 9: 4-2-7-3
**Most Likely Winner: P H Factor #4 (Race 7)**
**Best Value: Jmr Pure Sensation #5 (Race 4)**

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What You Need to Know - Saratoga | Monday, September 5, 2022

by Jeff Siegel

SARATOGA SPOTLIGHT RACES:

First Race: Post: 12:35 ET
Top Pick: 4-Three Girls (4-1)

She’s from the first crop of Collected and breezed a furlong in :10 flat during the preview session of the OBS June sale while looking very good doing it and then brought $150,000 through the ring, so while her local workouts appear moderate she’s definitely blessed with strong ability, especially for a New York-bred 2-year-old. Her sire, a son of City Zip, almost certainly would have made a high class turf performer if given the chance during his racing days, so we’re expecting this Jeremiah Englehart-trained filly to handle the grass just fine. In a field that appears to lack depth, she’ll offer enticing value at or near her 4-1 morning line. Exacta and rolling exotic players should also tossing in 7-Bode’s Girl and 1-Kara Para somewhere on their ticket. The former has displayed good speed in her local works while the latter is bred for turf and her work tab at Belmont Park indicates she has at least some talent.


Tenth Race – Post: 4:03 PT
Top Pick: 3-Jane Grey (9/2)

Produced by a Bernardini mare, this lightly raced 4-year-old seems very likely to improve in her first time stretching out and if she does the daughter Into Mischief can return to winning form in her third start off a layoff. Solid on speed figures and with an ideal pace-pressing style for this distance, the Bill Mott-trained filly continues to train well, so at 9/2 on the morning line she offers a reasonable gamble in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics. The one to fear most is 7-Wicked Hot, the likely pacesetter, and if she can shake loose early without pressure she may be hard to catch. She’s 6-1 on the morning line and at that price she should be included somewhere on your tickets.

*

SARATOGA RECOMMENDED ROLLING EXOTIC STRATEGIES:

(Races 1-6)
1st race: 8-Three Girls; 7-Bode’s Girl; 1-Kara Para
2nd race: 5-Atlanta’s Acuna; 6-Blame It On Daddy; 1-Mr. Marlin
3rd race: 5-City Man; 2-Mouillage
4th race: 3-Crowding Out; 1-Smokin’ Hot Kitty
5th race: 5-Adinike; 6-Backyard Money
6th race:1-Whatloveslookslike; 2-New Ginya; 9-Stellar Mars

(Races 7-12)
7th race: 3-Arctic Arrogance; 8-Sounds Spooky; 1-Leftembehind
8th race: 2-Air Attack; 5-War Stopper; 7-Portos
9th race: 1-Digital Software; 2-Reckless Spirit; 4-Rally Squirrel
10th race: 3-Jane Grey; 7-Wicked Hot
11th race: 5-Mo Strike; 4-Gulfport
12th race: 11-Sue Ellen Mishkin; 1-Cupid’s Heart; 2-Tosconova Beauty


SARATOGA WORKOUT ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY:

FIRST RACE:

Bode’s Girl (August 28, Saratoga, 4f, :49b). Grade: B
Hard held throughout while proving much best inside April First (same time) for D. Donk, final quarter in :24.3, a ton left at the wire. Was a virtual giveaway ($5,000) as a yearling but definitely has some speed and could be dangerous vs. maiden special weight state-bred juvenile fillies. Intriguing.
View Workout Video


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SEVENTH RACE:

Leftembehind (August 17, Saratoga, 5f, 1:02.3b). Grade: B
In blinkers, breezed inside Get Respect (5f, 1:03b) and was always going the better of the two and finishing three lengths clear while always in hand (workmate asked), final quarter mile in a moderate :25.4. Has a bit of run and might be worth a look with New York-bred types.
View Workout Video

Arctic Arrogance (August 21, Saratoga, 5f, 1:00.4bg). Grade: B-
Not particularly quick leaving the gate but steadily moved up inside Uncle Marty (3f, :36.3bg) and gradually pulled clear while being ridden some late, decent enough for L. Rice. Frosted colt should be fit enough to be competitive with state-bred maiden juveniles first time out.
View Workout Video

Sounds Spooky (August 28, Saratoga, 4f, :48bg). Grade: B-
Inside Candy Strike (same time) in gate work for T. Pletcher, ridden most of the way while perhaps a tad the best at the end, steady splits, okay move, nothing great. Likely will be a fit with moderate New York-bred maiden juvenile fillies.
View Workout Video


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TENTH RACE:

JANE GREY (August 28, Saratoga, 4f, :48.4b TT). Grade: B
Went off easily and then finished well when mildly coaxed in the late stages of this solo training track drill for W. Mott, final quarter in :24 flat. Lightly race and has room to improve, extra distance shouldn’t be an issue.
View Workout Video


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ELEVENTH RACE:

Mo Strike (August 28, Saratoga, 5f, 1:00.1b). Grade: B
In company outside Kinetic Sky (same time) and was always going slightly the better of the two while breezing to the wire and then being niggled out to gallop out well to the clubhouse turn. Undefeated in two stakes with more improvement still to come as the distances increase.

View Workout Video


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TWELFTH RACE:

Sue Ellen Mishkin (August 25, Saratoga, 5f, 1:02.3b). Grade: B
Broke off slightly behind Empire Lilly (5f, 1:03b, TT) and finished stride-for-stride with workmate at the wire before galloping out interest, never asked, final quarter in a sharp :24 flat. Got a confidence building win at Finger Lakes last time out and has won over this main track in the past. Looks ready.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Saratoga
PURCHASE
Saratoga - Race 7

Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (7-9), Pick 6 ($1) Races (7-12) Double Wagers


Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 81 • Purse: $88,000 • Post: 3:53P
FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY. WEIGHT, 119 LBS. (NON-STARTERS FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $40,000 OR LESS IN THE LAST 3 STARTS PREFERRED).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Dominant Stalker. ULUMALU is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * LT. MITCHELL: A first time starter with a trainer that has a return on investment with first time starters of at least +50 (minimum 10 starts). ULUMALU: Hors e has a TrackMaster "B" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ARCTIC ARROGANCE: Horse is a first time starter and its mare's win percentage with first timers is at least 50.
5
LT. MITCHELL
15/1

9/1
4
ULUMALU
15/1

10/1
3
ARCTIC ARROGANCE
5/2

10/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
4
ULUMALU
4

15/1
Alternator/Stalker
0

0

0.0

0.0

0.0








Unknown Running Style: LEFTEMBEHIND (6/1) [Jockey: Castellano Javier - Trainer: Tagg Barclay], NOBILIS (8/1) [Jockey: Cancel Eric - Trainer: Weaver George], ARCTIC ARROGANCE (5/2) [Jockey: Ortiz Jose L - Trainer: Rice Linda], LT. MITCHELL (15/1) [Joc

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $12600 Class Rating: 73

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 7 YAH HUH 5/2

# 2 JERUSALEM GATES 7/2

# 9 ESOR 4/1

My selection for this race is YAH HUH. Should best this group of animals here, showing very good figs of late. The speed rating of 68 from his last affair looks very strong in here. Has performed solidly recently in route races, posting a nifty 64 avg Equibase Speed Figure. JERUSALEM GATES - He has been running soundly lately while recording very strong Speed Figures. Have to bet on this gelding with the strong earnings per start in dirt route events. ESOR - Camilo will almost certainly be able to get this gelding to break out sharply in this competition. Has to be given a shot based on the decent Equibase Speed Figure put up in the last contest.

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Prairie Meadows
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $15201 Class Rating: 49

FOR REGISTERED STATE BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE, FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 8 GOTTA HAVE FAITH 2/1

# 1 FIREBAUGH 7/2

# 3 BIT A BAD NEWS 6/1

My selection for this event is GOTTA HAVE FAITH. Looks competitive to be close to the front end at the first call. FIREBAUGH - Could beat this group of animals given the 50 speed rating put up in her last outing. Has been running in the most competitive company of the group recently. BIT A BAD NEWS - Risk takers using horses with this jock and conditioner duo have done admirably lately.

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Monmouth Park
PURCHASE

09/05/22, MTH, Race 5, 2.14 ET
09/05/22,MTH,5,6F [Dirt] 1:07:02 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $18,000. (PLUS UP TO 40% NJB) FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs. Claiming Price $10,000.
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Best Occ Win% ROI
100.0000 6 Not a Postino(b+) 9/2 Rivera. Jr. L R Plaza Alberto SE 39 56.41 1.96/$1
098.9207 5 Robbedinthebahamas 5/2 Rodriguez A A Zerpa Gilberto 39 56.41 1.96/$1
098.6176 4 Dakota Boy 2/1 Torres J Gonzalez Claudio A. WL 39 56.41 1.96/$1
097.0309 3 Born for Victory 5/1 Rojas C E Gonzalez Claudio A. 70 41.43 1.44/$1
097.0309 2 The Isabel Astray 12/1 Ferrer J C Gonzalez Oscar M. 70 41.43 1.44/$1
092.8245 1 Light Work 5/2 Lopez P Breen Kelly J. JC 46 50.00 1.70/$1
Top rated horse With "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 28.57, ROI 0.95/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -1.0793
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[Dirt MdnMClm] Last Race Purse Higher Than Today -with-
[Dirt MdnMClm] Not Second Start

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Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Texas w/Perez +145 over Houston

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Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR MONDAY: TEXAS/HOUSTON OVER the total of 7

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Totals4U

Monday's Free Selection: Milwaukee Brewers/Colorado Rockies under 11

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#1 Sports

Monday's Free Play: Washington Nationals + 230

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Platinum Plays

Your Free Pick: the NY Mets -200 over Pittsburgh

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Nevada Sharpshooter

Your free winner for Monday : Take CLEVELAND/KANSAS CITY OVER the total of 7

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Hawkeye Sports

Monday's Free Pick: Calgary Stampeders - 12 1/2