Thursday 9/8/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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NFL
Week 1
Trend Report

Denver @ Seattle
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Seattle
Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Denver

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Week 1 NFL Monday night favorites are 19-39-1 ATS

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BUFFALO (0 - 0) at LA RAMS (0 - 0) - 9/8/2022, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 25-9 ATS (+15.1 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
BUFFALO is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 1-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO BILLS VS. LOS ANGELES RAMS

The Buffalo Bills and the Los Angeles Rams will both be trying to pick up a win on Thursday when they battle at SoFi Stadium.

Oddsmakers opened the Bills as -1.5-point favorites versus the Rams, while the game's total opened at 49.5.

Los Angeles won its last outing, a 23-20 result against the Bengals on February 13. The Rams failed to cover in that game as a -4-point favorite, while the 43 combined points took the game UNDER the total.

Buffalo lost its last outing, a 42-36 result against the Chiefs on January 23. The Bills failed to cover in that game as a +2.5-point underdog, while the 78 combined points took the game OVER the total.

Next up:
Buffalo home to Tennessee Monday, September 19
Los Angeles home to Atlanta Sunday, September 18

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BETTING ODDS TRENDS

Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
LA Rams is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 6 games
LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Rams's last 7 games at home
LA Rams is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
LA Rams is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 8 of LA Rams's last 9 games when playing Buffalo

Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Buffalo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games on the road
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Buffalo's last 9 games when playing LA Rams

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BUFFALO is 19-7 ATS (11.3 Units) in games played on turf in the last 3 seasons.

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NFL
Week 1
Trend Report

Buffalo @ LA Rams
Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Buffalo's last 9 games when playing LA Rams
Buffalo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
LA Rams
LA Rams is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of LA Rams's last 9 games when playing Buffalo

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NFL
Week 1
Thursday game

Bills @ Rams
— Last three years, Buffalo is 16-7-1 ATS on the road.
— Bills are 12-2-2 ATS last 16 games where spread was 3 or less.
— Buffalo is 10-3 ATS in last 13 games vs NFC teams.
— Buffalo won last three road openers.
— Bills are 5-3 ATS in last eight road openers.
— Bills are 7-5 ATS last 12 games as an underdog in road openers.
— Last two years, over is 10-4-2 in Buffalo’s road games.
— First game for Dorsey as Buffalo’s new OC.

— Rams won/covered last seven home openers.
— Under McVay, Rams are 5-0 SU/ATS in Week 1.
— Last three years, LA is 14-10 ATS at home.
— Last two years, Rams are 2-7-1 ATS vs AFC teams.
— Under is 4-2 in last six home openers.
— Last three years, under is 17-7 in their home games.
— Last 19 years, defending Super Bowl champ is 11-5-3 ATS in its first game the following season.

— Buffalo leads series, 8-5
— Bills won last meeting 35-32, two years ago.
— Bills lost two of three series games played in LA (2-0 in St Louis)
— Matthew Stafford’s brother-in-law is WR coach for Buffalo.

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Tech Trends

Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Rams (NBC, 8:20 p.m.)
Bills 9-3 vs. spread last 12 reg season road games.
Buff “over” 10-3 last 13 road games (including playoffs).
Rams 4-1 SU and vs. spread last five as dog., but only 5-6 vs. points at SoFi last season.

Tech Play: Bills, Over

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Total Trend

* Buffalo at L.A. Rams: The defending Super Bowl champs open up at SoFi Stadium against the Buffalo Bills, a team which hopes to replace the Rams as the league kings at season's end. There has been a lot of movement on this game. Originally the total opened at 52, moving down slightly, then up to 53, before settling in at 52.5.

There isn't a lot to glean from the 2021 numbers, especially from the Bills side, as the UNDER edged the OVER 9-8 in the regular season for Buffalo. Against NFC teams, the OVER was 3-2 against the NFC, while the OVER was 5-3 in road games for the Bills, and 6-3 if you count the AFC Divisional Round playoff loss in Kansas City.

For the Rams, the OVER was 9-7-1 in the regular season, with the UNDER 3-2 against the AFC in 2021. The UNDER was 2-0 at home against AFC teams, too, while the UNDER finished up 4-1 in the final five home games for the Rams at SoFi, and a perfect 4-0 in all games which ended in regulation.

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CONNECTICUT (29 - 14) at CHICAGO (30 - 14) - 9/8/2022, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 47-30 ATS (+14.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 20-5 ATS (+14.5 Units) in August or September games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) after allowing 75 points or more this season.
CONNECTICUT is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) after scoring 75 points or more this season.
CONNECTICUT is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 49-34 ATS (+11.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 35-24 ATS (+8.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 80-113 ATS (-44.3 Units) in home games after allowing 75 points or more since 1997.
CHICAGO is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game this season.
CHICAGO is 60-84 ATS (-32.4 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 11-7 against the spread versus CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 12-6 straight up against CONNECTICUT over the last 3 seasons
10 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Charles Town - Race #2 - Post: 7:30pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,500 Class Rating: 59

Rating:

#2 SISTER JOANN (ML=6/1)
#5 HOW IS SHE (ML=3/5)


SISTER JOANN - Last raced at Charles Town in a race with an Equibase class figure of 78. Dropping a significant amount in Equibase class figure in today's event puts her in a solid position right here. You have to always check out this type of early pace setter with an inside post position in a sprint on a bullring. Just look at her most recent speed figure, 53. That one fits in this field. HOW IS SHE - Last contest at Charles Town on Jul 15th was a big class drop for this animal. Facing similar foes in this event. She should do well this time out. For my money, a bullet workout is the best indicator of readiness there is. Look at that last one - 37.2. Very impressive. The last speed rating of 53 is the best last race speed figure in the field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 DYLADDIE (ML=3/1), #1 CARNIVAL LUCKY (ML=8/1),

DYLADDIE - Last performed on May 28th at Charles Town, finishing sixth. Not likely to get better off of that try in today's event. Doubtful that the speed fig she recorded on May 28th will be enough in this race. CARNIVAL LUCKY - Can't invest in this racer in today's sprint of 6 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a short distance race recently.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 SISTER JOANN is the play if we get odds of 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Remington Park - Race #7 - Post: 9:55pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,000 Class Rating: 85

Rating:

#11 BIG MONEY MACHINE (ML=5/1)
#6 A FLICKER OFSILVER (ML=20/1)
#14 JOHN ALLEN (ML=20/1)


BIG MONEY MACHINE - This gelding is in fine physical condition, having run a nice race on August 26th, finishing second. This horse isn't the morning line favorite, but finished ahead of today's M/L favorite in his last race (August 26th at Remington Park). A repeat of that last performance on August 26th where he earned a speed rating of 75 looks strong enough to win in this race. A FLICKER OFSILVER - Goncalves comes to saddle up after getting to know the gelding in the last race. Ran last race out against a tougher field at Remington Park. The move to a lower level should suit him well. JOHN ALLEN - I'm counting on this race horse to run a good race in today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 HE'S PRETTY LUCKY (ML=7/2), #7 AFLEET SNIPER (ML=6/1), #5 CANEY'S GHOST (ML=6/1),

HE'S PRETTY LUCKY - Hasn't been winning recently when made the favorite. Take a look at his record. AFLEET SNIPER - Just cannot play any mount right back after he doesn't land in the top three after any extended layoff. Don't believe this entrant will make an impact in today's event. That last fig was substandard when compared with today's class rating. CANEY'S GHOST - The speed figures continue to sink, 87/73/57. Not a healthy indication. Difficult to play any horse to turn things around if there is no value to taking the risk.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #11 BIG MONEY MACHINE to win. Have to have odds of at least 5/2 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	11 with [6,14]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [6,11,14] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass