Sunday 10/9/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Northfield Park

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 13
9	9	NO LOU ZING	9/5	Wrenn, Ronnie Jr - 25	554.23
5	5	CROSS COUNTRY	4/1	Ebersole, Luke - 7	534.79
2	2	JUST TOYIN WITH YA	7/1	Lems, Chris - 13	532.82
3	3	ANDALE ANDALE	15/1	Stahl, Ryan - 8	513.25
1	1	BARLEY UP	15/1	Myers, Hunter - 14	510.85
4	4	MELODIES MAJOR	5/1	Grismore, Greg - 11	502.72
8	8	SAWYER'S DESIRE	6/1	Sugg, Kurt - 10	498.45
6	6	TICK'S A YANKIN	12/1	Merriman, Aaron - 25	495.20
7	7	LLOYD'S ALL IN	25/1	Deaton, Elliott - 8	442.28

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Rideau Carleton

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Post: 8:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 71 - Purse:$6200 - CLAIMING $8000. - $9000. -$10000.

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 3 MATTS TUITION 10/1
# 9 RAISE YOU TWENTY 5/2
# 2 NINE WAYS 8/1

Hard not to strongly consider MATTS TUITION as the top selection in this one especially at such a decent 10/1. This contender may have some hidden form, a score would be a pleasant surprise. With a 72 average class number, this race horse has one of the most favorable class advantages in the field of starters. With a magnificent driver, who has won at a very nice 21 percent rate over the last 30 days, this has to be one of the top selections. RAISE YOU TWENTY - Worth considering in this event if only for the great speed figure recorded in the most recent race. Strong payoffs over time for this driver-trainer tandem. This fine animal is an obvious contender. NINE WAYS - Cannot put a finger on it, but give the nod to this gelding for a wager. You have to strongly consider a horse that wins a lot, very high win percent.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Compubet Standard at The Red Mile

CompuBet Free Pick!

CompuBet 10/09 THE RED MILE
Prog Contestant M/L Points Pre Mud_Q X_>21 Form "I"Class Fav Adj SpdDriver Points
Race#: 1- - TROT 10/09 THE RED MILE
5 Golden Wall As 4/1 706.77 100 83.3 91.0 1:51.4 Hall, Tony 17
1 World At War Deo 3/1 675.11 70 30.0 90.0 1:51.7 Bongiorno, Joe 20
6 B A Superhero 5/2 667.55 70 25.0 91.8 1:51.9 Tetrick, Tim 22
2 Majestic J 9/2 656.09 80 16.7 89.0 1:52.0 Mccarthy, Todd 18
3 Gigondas 9/2 629.56 80 25.0 89.0 1:52.5 Mccarthy, Andrew 17

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Harrah's Philadelphia

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 12
4	4	EAST BEACH	5/2	Callahan, Corey - 15	533.40
1	1	WARDAN EXPRESS A	3/1	Pelling, Jack - 13	492.73
6	6	BECHERS BROOK A	7/2	Allard, Simon - 16	490.63
5	5	AMAZON	6/1	Napolitano, Geo. Jr - 15	470.11
7	7	I'M J BEE N	20/1	Berry, Pat - 9	464.56
3	3	WHAT THE LUCK	8/1	Beyer, Troy - 10	455.87
2	2	TUFFENUFTOWEARPINK	8/1	Miller, Marcus - 12	455.15
8	8	FIRST STATE JONI	20/1	Dalious, Barton - 7	398.15

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Saratoga Harness

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Post: 12:20 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 82 - Purse:$10500 - NON-WINNERS $6,000

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 1 HOME'N DRY 5/2
# 4 SOUTHEASTER 9/2
# 2 JOEY PRO 4/1

Look no further than HOME'N DRY as the wager for this one. Overall figures appear very nice. Can't throw out at this point. Have good feelings this one might contend in this one. Feel the need for speed, this horse has been turning in some top notch speed ratings averaging around 83. SOUTHEASTER - Deserves a shot given the positive win percentage he sports. Could very well provide us a score based on great recent speed ratings - earning an average of 84. JOEY PRO - Tremendous driver Hennessey should find the pace of today's race to this gelding's liking - could be a good play. Many horse players love this gelding on the driver-trainer figures alone.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday’s games

San Diego @ NY Mets (series 1-1)
Musgrove is 10-7, 2.93 in 30 starts this year.
He is 7-3, 3.01 in 14 road starts.
He gave up 6 runs in 6.2 IP in seven playoff games for Houston in 2017 (all relief).
He is 1-5, 5.83 in six games (5 starts) vs New York.

Padres are 7-8 in their last 15 games.
San Diego is 46-37 on the road this year.
Padres are in the playoffs for 2nd time since 2006 (2020 other time)

Bassitt is 15-9, 3.42 in 30 starts this year.
He is 6-6, 2.95 in 16 home starts.
He is 1-0, 3.27 in two playoff starts.
He is 0-2, 6.60 in three starts vs San Diego.

Mets are 7-7 in their last 14 games.
Mets led NL East by 10 games June 1st, didn’t win the division.
New York is 55-28 at home.
Mets are in playoffs for first time since 2016.

San Diego is 5-3 vs New York this year, 3-2 at Citi Field.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Horse Racing picks for Keeneland on Sunday, October 9: Look at Malathaat

There is plenty of great horse racing across America on Sunday, including at Keeneland race track. We have been on fire with our picks for a long time now and we are up +284.24 units with our race selections to our recommended stakes dating back to August 5, 2021. Let’s keep it rolling!

Here are our best bets for today’s action at Keeneland race track.

1:00 pm Keeneland (Race 1) – Guana Cay 3/2 (2-star play)

Performed well in allowance optional claiming contests when completing a double in scoring by a neck over a mile at Ellis Park on her penultimate start. Could finish only 5th when beaten eleven lengths at Churchill Downs subsequently but switches to a starter event here. The daughter of Air Force Blue delivered a solid 49.20 four furlong breeze at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Cipriano Contreras’ charge is taken to register her 3rd win in 4 starts at this venue.
3:57 pm Keeneland (Race 6) – Love Reigns 4/5 (3-star play)

The Irish-bred daughter of U S Navy Flag has shown good form in her 3 starts to date following up an easy maiden special weight win here with a 3-length 4th in a big field Group 3 event at Royal Ascot in the UK in June. Returned to the winners’ enclosure when scoring by two-and-a-half-lengths in a Listed event over five-and-one-half-furlongs at Saratoga in August and looks capable of following up with Paco Lopez booked to ride.
5:45 pm Keeneland (Race 9) – Malathaat 3/5 (3-star play)

Delivered a half-length victory in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes over a mile-and-one-eighth at Saratoga in August. Had previously chased home Clairiere when one-and-a-half-lengths second in the Grade 2 Shuvee Stakes over the same course and distance the previous month. Has won both previous starts at this distance and with the trip to suit here Todd Pletcher’s mare is selected to register a 9th win in 13 career starts with regular pilot John Velazquez in the saddle.
Exotic
Early Pick 3

Race 1 – 1, 5
Race 2 – 4, 7
Race 3 – 4, 5

Stake – $2.00
Total Stake – $16.00

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rocket Picks ��: Belmont at the Big A, Santa Anita Park Park, and Keeneland for October 9, 2022
By: Aaron Halterman

It’s time for another great Sunday of racing! For the free pick 4, we will head to Belmont at the Big A for the Late Pick 4 on the card. We will also have full card selections for Keeneland and Santa Anita Park for the paid Rockets, so be sure to check those out. Let’s GO!

Below is our free late Pick 4 for Belmont at the Big A:

Belmont at the Big A October 9, 2022

Race 6: Futurity Stakes (G3)

#3 Inflation Nation has run well in two starts so far, losing on debut to a solid horse, before beating a good field last time out at Saratoga. He looks ready to take on stakes company today. #7 Gaslight Dancer goes for two straight wins over the turf after a nice looking maiden special weight score at Kentucky Downs last time out.

Race 7: Allowance
freestar

#1 Sweet Mystery has hit the board in back to back efforts at this class level after breaking her maiden impressively three starts back. She should be able to handle this field today. #3 Caramocha was third behind out top choice last time out. She has an experience edge over most of these runners.

Race 8: Knickerbocker Stakes (G3)

#3 Dynadrive looks to bounce back after a poor effort at Saratoga last time out in a tough race. Before that effort, he won two races in a row in impressive fashion at a big price. #10 Public Sector stretches out in distance today after some near misses recently going shorter.

Race 9: Maiden Claiming

#5 Laughter gets back to the turf today, which should help her chances. She also runs for Atras for the first time today, which usually leads to an improve effort. #6 Robyn and Eli gets class relief in this spot, which looks to be needed after back to back poor efforts.

THE TICKET

$.50 Pick 4 (Races 6-9) 3 / 1 / 1,3,5,7,8,9,10 / 5,6,7,8,9,11 – $21

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ballarat racing tips & top value bets | Sunday, October 9
October 7, 2022 4:03 pm.
James Herbert

What Ballarat Races
Where Ballarat Turf Club – 240 Kennedys Rd, Miners Rest VIC 3352
When Sunday, October 9, 2022
First Race 1:15pm AEDT
Ladbrokes Logo

Visit Ladbrokes

An eight-race program is set down for decision at Ballarat on Sunday afternoon on a track currently rated a Heavy 10. With plenty of rain forecast over the weekend, it will be the battle of the fittest come Sunday afternoon, and with the rail out 8m the entire circuit, it should be advantageous to be up on speed throughout the day. The first event is set to jump at 1:15pm AEDT.
Best Bet at Ballarat – Zagora

The James Cummings-trained Zagora finished a length off the progressive Entremet on the Pakenham synthetic on September 22 when seemingly facing traffic issues in running. Entremet has since come out and won its next start at Bendigo franking the form around Zagora’s effort. He draws barrier seven and with the wider surrounds of Ballarat under Blake Shinn, there should be no excuses as long as he does not get trapped wide. He comes to this third-up and with race fitness and decent enough form lines behind him, we expect Zagora will prove too good for this maiden field. At $3.20 with online Bookmakers, the colt looks to be a perfect bank builder.
Best Bet

Race 2 – Silk #6 Zagora (7)

3yo Colt | T: James Cummings | J: Blake Shinn (58kg)

$3.20 with Palmerbet
Next Best at Ballarat – Vultan

Despite needing to better $2.45 favourite Tarzi Callling, the Ken & Kasey Keys-trained Vultan looks to be one of the better bets of the day on Sunday. The four-year-old gelding looks to be a genuine mudlark and despite failing at Mornington first-up, we anticipate he will bounce back in fine fashion at Ballarat. He won second-up last campaign when racing on a Heavy 10 from an inside draw and with an almost identical equation in front of him, we’re happy to side with him. From barrier one, Craig Newitt will look to take up a prominent position aboard the Mshawish gelding and with even luck upon straightening, Vultan should prove too hard to hold out at a nice price.
Next Best

Race 6 – Silk #2 Vultan (1)

4yo Gelding | T: Ken & Kasey Keys | J: Craig Newitt (61.5kg)

$5.50 with Neds
Best Value at Ballarat – Project Gutenberg

Despite not being seen since his dominant Sandown victory, the Joseph Waldron-trained Project Gutenberg presents great value in the opening leg of the quaddie. That win came on a Heavy 10 when leading throughout and leaving his rivals flat-footed when it mattered most. He steps up to the 2600m on Sunday, a trip he has blaced at three starts back at Cranbourne and from barrier four, we expect Alana Kelly to take up the running and rate him to perfection once again. The $7.50 with online betting sites looks to be a silly price for a rock-hard fit horse who loves getting his toe into the ground.
Best Value

Race 5 – Silk #3 Project Gutenberg (4)

5yo Gelding | T: Joseph Waldron | J: Alana Kelly (60.5kg)

$7.50 with Unibet
Sunday quaddie tips for Ballarat
Ballarat quadrella selections

Sunday, October 9, 2022

1-3-6
2-10
5-6-12
5-7-8-12

Investment: $72 for 100%

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunshine Coast preview, quaddie & best bets | Sunday, October 9
October 8, 2022 1:59 pm.
Ciaran Jackman

What Sunshine Coast Races
Where Sunshine Coast Turf Club – 170 Pierce Ave, Caloundra QLD 4551
When Sunday, October 9, 2022
First Race 12:55pm AEST

Visit Ladbrokes

The Sunshine Coast Turf Club will host a seven-race program this Sunday. The track is currently a Soft 5, and with some rain on the forecast for Sunday, we will most likely stay in the Soft range all day on raceday. The rail will go out to the 6m position, while racing kicks off at 12:55pm AEST.
Best Bet: La Amigo

Our best bet comes up in the second race of the day over 1200m, where the Stuart Kendrick-trained La Amigo looks a very good chance to win third-up. This five-year-old gelding has a great record at the track and distance recording three wins from three tries. This son of Squamosa was very good winning first-up by two and a half lengths over 1000m at this track on September 11, before finishing a disappointing sixth behind Superare, by just under three lengths, who will also line up in this race today. However, La Amigo will meet him 2kg better at the weights in this race over a much preferred distance for our guy. This is what we believe will be the overriding factor as to why he will be return to the winners circle.
Best Bet

Race 2 – Silk #5 La Amigo (4)

5yo Gelding | T: Stuart Kendrick | J: Luke Tarrant (54kg)

$2.60 with Bet365
Next Best Bet: Aircraftman

The Chris Meagher-trained Aircraftman was very good in his first-up run over 1350m where he was just beaten by a better one at Doomben on September 14. This four-year-old gelding has recorded five placings from 10 starts so far in his career, with his last start second being one of his better performances for some time. Since this son of Starcraft has been transferred from John Thompson to Chris Meagher, he has had a nice trial and first-up run, so if he has made the necessary improvement going into his second run for the stable, he should be able to win this race, where there seems to be a few non-winners involved.
Next Best

Race 4 – Silk #1 Aircraftman (12)

4yo Gelding | T: Chris Meagher | J: Stephanie Thornton (59kg)

$2.50 with Bet365
Best Value Bet: Canny Be Better

Our value bet on the card will come up in the first race of the day where the Stuart Kendrick-trained Canny Be Better will be looking to record his first win at start number six. This four-year-old gelding has run second and seventh in two starts back this preparation at 800m and 1200m, with James Orman on board for both starts. With James Orman sticking with this son of Better Than Ready and dropping back to the 1000m, he should be in this for a very long way.
Best Value

Race 1 – Silk #2 Canny Be Better (7)

4yo Gelding | T: Stuart Kendrick | J: James Orman (58.5kg)

$7.50 with Bet365
Sunday quaddie tips for Sunshine Coast races
Sunshine Coast quadrella selections

Sunday, October 9, 2022

1-3-4
2-5-6
3-5-7-13
2-5-6-10-13

Investment: $180 for 100%

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's Horse Racing Tips - 9th October 2022
by Racing & Sports ,



by Racing & Sports , 3 hours ago
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3 minute read

Racing and Sports highlight our standout plays at Australian TAB meetings for October 4.

Racecourse : Sunshine Coast
Racecourse : Sunshine Coast Picture: @SCTurfClub

Australian thoroughbred Tab meetings are today held at Ballarat, Sunshine Coast, Penola and Geraldton.

SUNSHINE COAST: RACE 6 @ 4:05PM

Bad Education (5) brought strong form to resumption at Doomben and couldn't finish it off on the heavy track. He ran a 2-1 equal favourite and finds easier grade. Gets a key jockey switch to Maloney who's trialled him. Fitter and will take beating. BORN A WARRIOR (3) has just missed both runs after switching from a Sydney stable. There was only a nose in it the latest in better grade and he'll go close drawn well and with Orman staying with him. UNLIKELYOCCURRENCE (15) resumed improved with the near-miss here at this level and has the rail today and Thompson on for the apprentice. Has won 2/4 second-up and keep very safe. MIDNIGHT RAMBLER (10) resumes and has shown enough to consider. SELECTIONS: Backing Bad Education.

Sunshine Coast Computer Card - October 9

BALLARAT: RACE 3 @ 2:25PM

Frenchmans Bay (11) caught the eye on debut when coming from well back for second on the Synthetic. This is a completely different scenario but he appears to have upside and if he handles the going he can get into the finish. RYCAM LAD (6) has placed at four of his past five starts, all on Heavy going. If the track comes up bottomless he's worth an each way ticket again. DRIFTA (2) creates interest on debut with plenty of Trials under his belt in preparation. A typical positive Newitt ride can see him getting into the race at the right time. HELJINSKY (4) is usually thereabouts fresh and gets the Blinkers on. Respect despite this being on the short side for him. SELECTIONS: Frenchmans Bay win bet.
PENOLA: RACE 4 @ 3:25PM

Culily Ace (5) has been up for some time but seems to be thriving and her only misses have come in some very competitive fields. She was a beaten favourite last time out at Coleraine but was brave to the line when finishing runner-up. She won't have to improve much to be the hardest to beat in this. GIGGLON (1) his last two runs have been in a stronger grade and the last time he raced at this level was three back when winning at Bordertown. He is carrying less weight this time after the four kilo claim and can't be overlooked here. Can win. SMART ELISSIM (4) peaked on his run fresh up when a beaten favourite at Naracoorte and will strip much fitter for this assignment. The step up in distance looks ideal and he is sure to be heavily supported again. Hard to beat. WILD WILLY (2) is pretty much a win or bust type of galloper and has won two from four starts when fresh up. He has also won four from six on the track and deserves plenty of respect. Follow any positive market moves. SELECTIONS: Culily Ace win bet.GERALDTON: RACE 6 @ 4:55PM

Celevacci (2) resumed at Belmont with a close-up finish and then raced favourite at Northam and finished it off solidly. Fitter and has more to give. In good hands and should have then covered. YANGTZE RAPIDS (1) was a big CL2 winner his only run last campaign. He draws well and owns a sharp Lark Hill trial. Everything points to him going well. ART ADMIRER (6) is in light again with the 2kg claim and won't have to improve much on the first-up effort to make the finish. ARABIAN RICHES (3) resumes and is capable of performing fresh. He will race handy and is in the mix. SELECTIONS: Keen on Celevacci and will run a double into Shake Baby Shake in the next.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Belmont at the Big A Horses in Focus for Sunday, October 9
Posted on October 8, 2022 by David Aragona

RACE 2: MR. KRINGLE (#7)

This conditioned claiming event is a real skull buster. A few horses are exiting that Aug. 20 event at this same level. Aviano (#9) figures to attract support despite putting in a poor effort that day. That was his first time dropping in for a tag and he failed to improve with the class relief. However, now he’s making his first start off the claim for Jose Camejo, who has had success with his NYRA runners. However, he’s been more dangerous off the claim on dirt than turf. I’m slightly more interested in Sonic Speed (#8) from that Aug. 20 affair. He got a good trip until the field got into the stretch, at which point he was completely stymied in traffic. He validated the notion that he could have done better that day by returning with a narrow loss last time at Delaware in the best performance of his career. Since this race appears to be so wide open, I want to look for a runner who I can make a decent case for at a square price. Mr. Kringle (#7) isn’t the most reliable win candidate, having settled for 11 minor awards to go along with his 2 career victories. However, I do think he’s getting appropriate class relief at this stage of his career. He’s been facing slightly better competition at the New York-bred allowance level lately, and he’s actually run competitively at that level until recently. I like that the blinkers are going back on, since he seemed to run most of his better races with them. Most importantly, he should be the best price of those I’m considering.

RACE 5: FIERCE DEBATE (#5)

The one thing I know about this inscrutable maiden claimer is that I don’t want to settle for a short price on anyone. Ridewiththedevil (#1) figures to be the only half of his entry to participate with Street Vender drawn three-deep on the AE list. He did face better company in his only turf start at Gulfstream, but I didn’t see him do that much running in either of his two races last winter. Bargaining Power (#12) is another who will take money as he drops in for a tag for the first time. He did encounter some traffic in the stretch of his debut at Kentucky Downs, but it also didn’t appear that he was doing much running either before or after the trouble. He’s getting needed class relief, but he figures to be a short price just by default for these connections. I’m more interested in some bigger price. One runner I want to use is On Palm Sunday (#2). This New York-bred is stepping up into open company, but he ran better than it appears last time after he ran off in the early stages of that race, setting a fast pace. He’s been steadily improving in his turf starts for David Donk and looks like the controlling speed here. My top pick at an even bigger price is Fierce Debate (#5). He looks uncompetitive based on his speed figures from last year, but he was a 2-year-old then and we haven’t seen him in 13 months. His second start at Ellis Park was actually a decent performance, at least demonstrating that he handles turf. He’s bred to better than what he’s shown so far as a half-brother to graded stakes winner Neptune’s Storm. He comes back in the barn of former Casse assistant Jamie Begg and has worked decently for the return.

RACE 8: PIXELATE (#6)

Chad Brown seemingly holds a strong hand in this Knickerbocker, sending out 3 of the 10 runners in this field. However, I’m not enamored with any of his entrants and at least two of them figure to attract plenty of support. Public Sector (#10) could go favored here as the mount of Irad Ortiz. However, I’ve been somewhat disappointed with his last couple of performances. Perhaps he didn’t get the best ride at Pimlico last time, but he still didn’t offer much finish, nor did he take advantage of a fast pace two back in the Lure. It just feels like he’s tailed off a bit, and I’m not sure added ground helps him. I’m more interested in L’Imperator (#5), but I also have some questions about his overall form. He comes in with some of the best speed figures, but one of those was earned when he wired a field over a boggy course in the Fort Marcy. His Bowling Green was solid, but he got away with a slow pace that day, and he doesn’t figure to enjoy the same advantage here. Pao Alto (#8) makes plenty of sense after finishing ahead of Public Sector in his U.S. debut at Pimlico. He shouldn’t mind the added ground and is dangerous if he takes any kind of step forward. Safe Conduct (#9) is a horse who must be considered given his running style. With little confirmed front-running speed in this field, it would be no surprise to see Jose Lezcano send this guy to the early lead. He was compromised by a run-off leader when chasing a fast pace in the Lure last time, and he has prior efforts that give him a chance against this field. My top pick is Pixelate (#6). This 5-year-old has been a little disappointing in both starts this year, but I can make excuses for him. He had to alter course when attempting to rally off the layoff at Laurel two back, and then last time he got a strange ride from Joel Rosario at Kentucky Downs. He was never put in a position to make a run and altered course multiple times through the lane. He has a right to step forward third of the layoff, and this feels like an appropriate distance for him. He has prior form that would make him awfully tough against this field.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Aqueduct Stakes Plays for Oct. 9
John Mucciolo

A trio of graded stakes events will highlight the Sunday card at Aqueduct.
Race 3 – Beldame S. (G2)

Three-time Grade 1 star #1 Nest (1-5) is a standout in the 1 1/8-mile affair. By Curlin, the sensational sophomore has never run a bad race in her lifetime and looms a menacing threat over these overmatched foes. I expect her to win comfortably.

Dual Grade 2 heroine #5 Travel Column (6-1) has back class and seems set to peak in her third run of the season since coming to conditioner Bill Mott. Frosted four-year-old has posted three bullet morning drills in succession for her local debut, and the gray figures to be prominent from the opening bell in this test, too. She will complete the exacta under Javier Castellano.
Race 6 – Futurity S. (G3)

A total of eight juveniles will dash six panels on the outer turf in a good handicapping assignment. The value of the cast is #4 Vacation Dance (12-1) for conditioner John Kimmel. The debut winner rises in class following a tally against state-bred foes at Saratoga, and I always take notice when this outfit sends out a first-time winner. The Lieutenant gray will rally from off the early tempo as a prime exotics contender beneath Castellano.

The one to beat, in my opinion, is Kentucky Downs maiden winner #7 Gaslight Dancer (3-1). Mike Maker pupil showed marked improvement when moving to the green for his second run, and the March foal could be a good one with further development.
Race 8 – Knickerbocker S. (G3)

A well-matched field of 10 will go postward in the nine-furlong turf test. In a race void of pace, #9 Safe Conduct (8-1) will have a chance to dictate things from the start for conditioner Phil Serpe. By Bodemeister, the four-year-old colt is a Canadian classic winner who also owns a stakes second in his lone prior try on the surface, so he possesses the class to be a factor in this spot.

The four-year-old colt was beaten to the front last time when unplaced at Saratoga, but I like his chance to clear soon after the start and be especially dangerous late with Jose Lezcano in the stirrups.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Seoul Saturday: Race-By-Race Preview (October 9)

Saturday’s racing is at Seoul with 10 races from 10:45 to 18:00. Here are the previews:

Seoul Race 1: Class 6 (1000M) Allowance / KRW 60 Million

Juvenile maidens with six of the eleven racing for the first time. We shall side with experience though because (7) RAON SPIKE caught the eye on debut on August 14th, settling midfield and running on for a close 3rd in a fast time over this distance. He should have derived benefit from the run and any kind of improvement should see him home on top. There is a debut-maker to keep an eye on though. (11) MAGIC HOUR made all to win his trial in a decent time earlier this month. While he may not have drawn the best, if he can bring that form to the races, he can go close first up and will probably be second favourite. (10) CAT’S EYE put in a bold showing on his debut on September 3rd, leading before weakening late. He should have come on for the run and be in it a bit longer today. Neither (6) BAEKDU BOY nor (9) SUPER FINISH disgraced themselves on their respective debuts and both can be entitled to some improvement here.
Selections (7) Raon Spike (11) Magic Hour (10) Cat’s Eye (6) Baekdu Boy
Next Best 9, 1
Fast Start 1, 4, 10, 11

Seoul Race 2: Class 6 (1300M) Allowance / KRW 25 Million

Tricky maiden with some very shaky form. Only four have tackled the distance before and (5) LAST CALL was the fastest among them, athough that’s very much a relative thing, in this company. He has been consistent; an apprentice rider keeps the weight low and today could be this day. The only one of the nine who has troubled the scorers so far is (6) DANAEUN ROSE, who ran an on-pace 3rd on debut over 1200M in July. She couldn’t get to the front from a wide gate on her re-appearance in August but draws better today and has claims to be favourite. (8) GENTLE RULES is similar to Last Call, in terms of having been consistent if unspectacular. He got a 4th place over this distance two starts back and while the time was slow, he won’t need to go much better to improve on that here. (1) WONDERFUL MUSIC and (4) HUIMANG OREUM are others who could potentially improve.
Selections (5) Last Call (6) Danaeun Rose (8) Gentle Rules (1) Wonderful Music
Next Best 4, 2
Fast Start 4, 5, 6, 7

Seoul Race 3: Class 6 (1200M) Allowance / KRW 25 Million

Another maiden and it’s hard to look past (1) ANYANG SAJA. Having run 6th from a wide gate on debut, he was a much-improved 2nd at start number two when settling behind the early speed and then running on. He draws nicely here and while this is his first start for three months, he should have too much for this field and will start as a short-priced favourite. Clear second favourite is (3) NAMSAN KKOT. She has finished between 3rd and 5th in all four of her starts so far, generally settling back or in midfield and running on. She too comes back off a bit of a layoff – in her case she last ran in May – but she looked well enough when winning a trial last Friday and should go close here. In the same colours, (10) NAMSAN MUJEOK also returns for the first time since May. He registered a 3rd and a 4th in his last two starts before his layoff and came through a trial three weeks ago well enough to suggest he can pick up from where he left off here. (4) GOLDEN LUCKY has been back to trial since his inauspicious debut in August and can be given another chance. (9) SONGAM NURI does have a 3rd place on his record and that’s enough to give him a chance of the minors here.
Selections (1) Anyang Saja (3) Namsan Kkot (10) Namsan Mujeok (4) Golden Lucky
Next Best 9, 8
Fast Start 1, 3, 7, 8

Seoul Race 4: Class 5 (1200M) Handicap / KRW 40 Million

Fillies only here with another short-priced favourite and just as in race 3, Antonio is riding it from gate one. (1) CONCORD QUEEN scored her maiden win in March, making all over 1300M and she has been working her way back towards another victory, almost grabbing it on her latest start on August 27th when leading nearly the entire way around only to be denied by the favourite on the line. She comes up in the weights by 2kg here but that’s balanced by a better draw, and she should take some beating. (3) CUPID JUMBO races for the first time since May. She had shown ability and looked well when trialling in July and may provide some interest at a probable each-way price as she has run well first-up before. (11) MORNING PEARL comes n off a good 2nd at class and distance on September 4th. She came from off the pace that day so the wide draw shouldn’t be a hindrance and she can be a danger here. (4) INNER PEACE and (10) THE FAVORITE – who assuredly won’t have that status – are others in the placing frame.
Selections (1) Concord Queen (3) Cupid Jumbo (11) Morning Pearl (4) Inner Peace
Next Best 10, 12
Fast Start 1, 4, 9, 10

Seoul Race 5: Class 5 (1400M) Handicap / KRW 40 Million

A race where the form is, to put it delicately, ordinary. (8) BLACK CHARM was sent off as favourite over class and distance on September 4th and while from a wide draw, he didn’t run well, finishing 10th, beaten by a few of today’s rivals, what made him favourite that day still holds in that he has a class and distance runner-up finish in a fast time – now three starts back – and then his 5th place in a strong race for the class two starts back. He gets another chance. (7) BIG ENERGY ran 8th in that race, having got far too far back, something he has done twice in a row now. He has shown ability though with eight top-five finishes from sixteen starts and in this company can be a danger. (11) MISSILE CANDY was the longest shot on the board in that September 4th race but defied that to some extent to run 6th, the best of the ones who return here. An apprentice brings him down to a very light weight and he can go close today. (5) LUCKY CROWN ran 7th of ten in the Korean Oaks and has since put in fair times in two outings at this distance. (3) OKDONG GONGJU is consistently not too far away and should be around the money again.
Selections (8) Black Charm (7) Big Energy (11) Missile Candy (5) Lucky Crown
Next Best 3, 6
Fast Start 4, 9, 10, 11

Seoul Race 6: Class 4 (1400M) Handicap / KRW 60 Million

Small field here and (7) CHOEGANG QUEEN gets the nod based on her last start class and distance close 3rd place on September 4th. She has been consistent, only missing the top-five on two occasions from thirteen starts and can sit on pace or handy here and prove too strong late on. (3) AMAZING WHIZ comes back in trip following a couple of positive spins around 1700M, including a runner-up finish last time out when on pace throughout. He is tactically versatile and while up in class he is down in the weights and should be competitive. (5) WONDER K beat a couple of these on his way to 6th of twelve over 1200M at this class on August 28th. He gets a much better draw today and can get to the lead and be in this a long way. (4) LAST BOSS, who has the fastest time among these for the distance, and (1) GUEOKMAAL are among others who can go close.
Selections (7) Choegang Queen (3) Amazing Whiz (5) Wonder K (4) Last Boss
Next Best 1, 2
Fast Start 1, 5, 7, 8

Seoul Race 7: Class 4 (1400M) Handicap / KRW 60 Million

It’s about time (8) COOL PRINCESS returned to the winner’s circle. She consistently runs fast times for this distance and enters off a strong runner-up finish at this class on September 4th. An apprentice jockey keeps her weight low, and she should be on pace or handy and can finish strongly. (5) FORT SEUONE won over this distance at class 5 level three starts back and was a front-running 2nd at this class and distance last time out in July. She has had three months off since so comes in here fresh but can be on pace and a big danger. (7) NAUI NARA has seven top-four finishes from ten starts and comes back in trip following recent efforts at 1700M. He has a strong finish on him and while he is up slightly in the weights, look out for him at the business end here. (3) IL MARE can be hard to catch but when he’s right, he can go very well. (1) SERVE ACE has been ordinary in her latest two but has posted terrific times for the distance in the past and shouldn’t be ruled out.
Selections (8) Cool Princess (5) Fort Seuone (7) Naui Nara (3) Il Mare
Next Best 1, 4
Fast Start 4, 5, 6, 8

Seoul Race 8: Class 4 (1200M) Handicap / KRW 60 Million

The solid times that she has recorded on her way to back-to-back runner-up finishes at class and distance, as well as not having to come up to any significant degree in the weights, make (7) BAEKDU GIRL a warm favourite here. In this company, she can settle just behind the early speed and prove too strong late on. (8) NAMSAN CHOCOLATE beat three of these on her way to 2nd place at class and distance on September 3rd. She posted a very good time when winning at this distance three starts back at class 5 level and with a competitive wight, she can be a threat today. (6) DOKKAEBE is yet to win in eleven attempts but hasn’t been far away in recent outings. He is tactically versatile and has been consistent at this distance. (3) NONSTOP REWARD and (4) DUSON FANTASTIC among others in at least the placing hunt.
Selections (7) Baekdu Girl (8) Namsan Chocolate (6) Dokkaebe (3) Nonstop Reward
Next Best 4, 2
Fast Start 4, 9, 10, 11

Seoul Race 9: Class 3 (1200M) Handicap / KRW 75 Million

(4) NEMO PRINCESS ran out a good winner over this distance with a front-running performance in a fast time at class 4 level back on July 24th. She has had eleven weeks off since then and she comes up in class, but she is down in the weights, draws a good gate, and may be hard to hold out again. (2) PURPLE K has only missed the top five on one occasion from ten starts so far. She comes in off a solid 3rd place on her first try at this class last time out, she draws a good gate today to get on pace, and she can be a danger. (3) YUKWAEHAN NALDEUL comes up in class after a good on pace win over this distance on August 28th. He comes down in the weights and while Nemo Princess has had the beating of him a couple of times recently. He can measure up in this company. (1) MORNING HILL and (6) EAST IMPACT are the others who can enter the minor money calculations.
Selections (4) Nemo Princess (2) Purple K (3) Yukwaehan Naldeul (1) Morning Hill
Next Best 6, 7
Fast Start 2, 3, 4, 5

Seoul Race 10: Class 2 (1800M) Allowance / KRW 90 Million

(11) JOY BROTHER is in the form of his life with three wins from his last four including his latest outing in the HRI Trophy on international weekend when he just got up to take a narrow victory. Those three wins have all been over 1400M so he comes back up to two turns today and while he carries his fair share of weight, the wide draw shouldn’t be a concern and he will be doing his thing late on again. (2) WONPYEONG GASOK was favourite for that HRI Trophy, and he finished a very close 2nd. He comes up to two turns for the first time and will probably be the betting favourite to overturn the form on Joy Brother. Also entering in very good form is (4) GRAY CAT. He comes up in class following a win over a mile on September 4th and while today’s set weights scale doesn’t really do him any favours, he can measure up in this company. (1) MONEY ZIF and (8) RAON BEAT are others to consider.
Selections (11) Joy Brother (2) Wonpyeong Gasok (4) Gray Cat (1) Money Zif
Next Best 8, 10
Fast Start 2, 3, 8, 11

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Belmont at the Big A Hotlist - October 9

October 7, 2022

Today’s New York Hot List races to watch – Sunday, October 9, 2022
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

3rd race [Beldame (G2), 1 1/8 mi] – (1) Nest is the leading 3-year-old filly in the country based on her wins in the Alabama (G1), the CCA Oaks (G1), and the second-place finish in the Belmont Stakes (G1). (2) First to Act was second in the Summer Colony at Saratoga for Shug McGaughey. In five career starts she has only run first or second. (5) Travel Column won graded stakes last year as a 3-year-old and made a pair of starts this year with an allowance win at Churchill Downs and then a fourth in the Ballerina (G1) for Bill Mott. (3) Hybrid Eclipse got her first stakes victory in July at Laurel Park going a mile.

4th race [Md Sp Wt, 7F] – (5) Unlimitedpotential got a big speed figure in his debut at Saratoga when he finished second for Todd Pletcher as part of a favored entry. (7) Matt Doyle made his first of the year on the turf at the Spa and now moves back to the main track where he hit the board three times. (2) Southern Flag ran a career best speed figure in his second start of the year for Bill Mott when he was third. (6) Tiger Town Boy is a son of Curlin and a mare that won over $500,000 as a stakes winner and produced a graded stakes winner of $563,000.

7th race [NY, Alw 85000 N1X, 1 mi] – (1) Sweet Mystery hit the board in all four of her starts including a second at this level three weeks ago. (6) Know It All Audrey was an easy winner of a N2L claimer against open company as the favorite and was claimed. (3) Caramocha has a third and a second in his last two races which were in similar spots. (7) New York Banker has been racing in starter allowances and returns to face state-breds for the first time since joining the Noda barn.

9th race [NY, Md 40000, 6F mi TURF] – (9) Treat Street (D) was bet down from 9-1 to 7-1 and then set the pace going a mile on the turf and should benefit from the distance cutback. (5) Laughter was claimed by Rob Atras after setting the pace and finishing third as she moves back onto the grass. (6) Robyn and Eli will drop into a claimer for the first time for Chad Brown after running second twice in maiden special weights and then trying NY Stallion Series stakes a couple of times. (7) Eli Dancer gets blinkers on for Jose Camejo after two improved races on the turf.

Best bets: Nest (3rd); Unlimitedpotential (4th). Best value: Sweet Mystery (7th); Treat Street (9th).

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(9)


Treat Street


D on 8/31


9


Set the pace from post position 10 going a mile.