Saturday 10/15/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Bobby Conn

1* Free Play on Flyers +124

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Stephen Nover

Free Play: Florida Under 51

LSU and Florida are two offenses in transition under new head coaches, Brian Kelly and Billy Napier. LSU's defense had been solid until getting whacked, 40-13, by Tennessee last week. The Tigers had permitted an average of 12.5 points during their previous four games. The Tigers are a top-30 defense.

The Gators' offense has been up-and-down reflecting the inconsistency of their QB, Anthony Richardson.
Florida's defensive statistics have been skewed by Tennessee, too. The Gators gave up 38 points to the Volunteers. The Gators have faced strong quarterbacks in Utah's Cameron Rising, Kentucky's Will Levis and Tennessee's Hendon Hooker. LSU's Jayden Daniels isn't the passer those three are.

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Brandon Lee

Saturday's Free NCAAF Pick: Kentucky Wildcats +6.5
Give me No. 22 Kentucky as a 6.5-point home dog against No. 16 Mississippi State. I think we could be getting a great price on the Wildcats, as I think the line is this high because of the uncertainty with Kentucky starting quarterback Will Levis.
Reports are that he's trending in the right direction to play. I think it's worth firing on the Wildcats now. If it comes out that Levis is playing, this line should drop significantly. If it doesn't we can always buy off of it before kickoff.
This is a different team with Levis on the field. We saw just how important he is to the offense with how bad that side of the ball looked this past Saturday in a 14-24 home loss to South Carolina.
The only other loss for Kentucky is a 19-22 loss at Ole Miss. A game they very easily could have won. You could definitely argue that if Levis doesn't get hurt, this team could easily be 6-0 and ranked inside the Top 10.
This also feels like a good time to sell-high on Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have started out 5-1 SU and are 4-1-1 ATS. They have covered their last two in convincing fashion, beating Texas A&M 42-24 as a 4-point home favorite and Arkansas 40-17 as a 8-point home favorite.
Big thing to note about those big covers vs the Aggies and Razorbacks, is both games were at home. The only real road test the Bulldogs have had is an earlier game at LSU, which they lost 16-31 as a 3-point favorite. That's not a great LSU team. Tigers just lost at home 13-40 to Tennessee.
You also can't handicap this game without factoring in who is on deck next week for the Bulldogs. Mississippi State is set to go on the road to face Alabama. I think it gets a little easier to lookahead when everything has been going your way.
Kentucky has Tennessee on deck, but have a bye before that matchup. This also kind of feels like a season-saving type of win for the Wildcats. Lose this game and they would need to win at Tennessee to avoid dropping to 4-4 after a 4-0 start.
Mike Leach coached teams are 0-8 ATS after leading by 10+ points at the half in each of their last 3 games. Give me Kentucky +6.5!

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Scott Rickenbach
Romania Liga 1 Saturday Free Pick OVER 2.5 +125 in FC Botosani vs U Craiova 1948

Taking a shot with the plus money that this one will get to 3 goals. If this total drops to a 2 then grab that but, if not, look for the over 2.5 at plus money in this one. FC Botosani has seen each of last 5 matches total at least 2 goals and the matches have averaged 3.4 goals apiece. U Craiova 1948 is off a 1-0 home loss but their 7 road matches this season have averaged 2.4 goals apiece and their last road match was a 2-2 draw. I am looking for at least 3 goals in this one given all the above. Free Pick OVER 2.5 +125 in FC Botosani

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Totals Guru

Free Total Annihilator On Blackhawks vs Sharks under 6 +105

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Jesse Schule

This is a free play on Iowa State+15 1/2.

So Texas is coming off a huge 49-0 win over Oklahoma, setting them up for a potential let down spot here this week. They also have Oklahoma State on deck, which completes the situation sandwich with the look ahead spot. They are asked to cover a big number against an Iowa State team that hasn't lost by more than 15 points since 2016. I'll take the points.
GL,
Jesse Schule

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Sean Murphy

Saturday CFB Free play. My selection is on Georgia-37 1/2 over Vanderbilt at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.
We successfully faded Vanderbilt against Ole Miss last week but needed an improbable last-minute touchdown to get the cover. With that said, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same fade of the Commodores this week as they hit the road to face number-one ranked Georgia with the Bulldogs best football still ahead of them in my opinion. While this line may look steep at first glance, I believe it will appear short come halftime. Georgia barely broke a sweat in last week's 42-10 rout of Auburn, scoring five touchdowns over a 31-minute stretch from the second to fourth quarter. I liked the fact that the Bulldogs were able to tack on a late touchdown, even after the outcome had long been decided. To say that the Vandy defense will have its hands full in this one is a massive understatement. Note that the Commodores yielded four offensive touchdowns over a 10-minute stretch at one point in last week's blowout loss against Ole Miss - that's no easy feat. QB A.J. Swann had the game of his life against the Rebels all things considered but he's in for a world of hurt as a pure pocket passer against a Bulldogs defense that is looking to make an example out of someone. The last time we saw Vandy play on the road it mustered just a single first quarter field goal in a 52-point rout at the hands of Alabama. Credit the freshman QB Swann as he's done everything that's been asked of him and has been able to move the football and put points on the board for stretches. The Commodores had the benefit of Ole Miss getting off to a sleepy start last Saturday and built a 20-10 lead with just under two minutes remaining in the first half. The fact that they got outscored 42-8 the rest of the way was telling. We haven't really seen Georgia at its best since Week 1 when it crushed Oregon 49-3. This is the ideal blow-up spot noting that it handled its business and then some on the road against Vandy last year, winning by a 62-0 score. Take Georgia.

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BRIAN W. SPENCER'S DAILY PICKS

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Keeneland - Race #7

#9 Team Leader	He'll get over to the turf for the first time after a dull run on the Churchill main last month, and I'm always intrigued when a Street Boss gets on the grass. Barn is better than the cold start.
#3 Dust Storm	Really liked his Presque Isle try last time out, and I'm hoping he has enough pace to find a spot right up on the splits again here. Price should be plenty attractive.
#4 Worthington	He showed some chasing pace before flattening out in the Kentucky Downs debut, but he might be able to move forward off that one with a good trip near the top waiting.
Race Summary	Team Leader has some pedigree for the turf while switching surfaces off a flat run at Churchill, and the price should be fair enough with a couple underwhelming running lines in tow.

Keeneland - Race #9

#5 Bellabel	Think this race should go very slow early and fast late, and I'm hoping this one is able to get a slight jump on the chalk into the far turn.
#6 Mckulick	Reliable finisher landed a Grade I earlier this year and exits a score keeps her in the frame here at an underlaid price if she's able to bring something similar.
#7 Paris Peacock	Things have been coming together for her in recent starts, and there's nothing wrong with getting Geroux up for this try. Wouldn't be shocked to see her finish well in a race that may turn into a real sprint for home.
Race Summary	Bellabel is in really good form right now and has just enough tactical pace to perhaps get the jump on the chalk today. Would be thrilled if she offers something like the 5/1 ML price.

Keeneland - Race #10

#4 Ultimate	His form can be a bit all over the place, but his best stuff keeps him in the picture with these, and he was competitive with similar at Oaklawn earlier this year.
#7 Feast	He's the one to beat while dropping out of stakes company, but I do worry that he's going to have a bit of company in the early going here. Obvious chance.
#11 The Queens Jules	Tactical player might be able to get a perfect first-over trip here with a good draw to use his positional pace. More likely underneath, but capable if he gets first jump.
Race Summary	Feels like there are quite a few in here who want to be at least somewhat involved in the early going, so I'm hoping someone can come running late. Ultimate might get a bit overlooked off his Prairie form, but he should get a good race shape here.

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FRANK CARULLI'S DAILY PICKS

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Gulfstream Park - Race #1

#4 KEKERE (3-1)	Tired badly in debut on a ‘good’ track, can rebound on the class drop.
#7 COX CANYON (2-1)	Son of Ghostzapper debuts for tag; dam was multiple G-I-placed earner of $500k.
#1 HELLO SUCKER (15-1)	Slow start in debut, experience could go a long way against mostly firsters.
Race Summary	KEKERE chased a pair of 3-to-1 Florida breds who had race experience before back-pedaling to last in a field with seven first-time starters. Expect improvement in his second go-round for a barn that strikes at a high rate in maiden claimers. Bet to win and place.

Gulfstream Park - Race #2

#8 CHASING JOY (5-2)	Good form could get better off Gonzalez claim, today’s Best Bet.
#6 ARROW SHAPE (3-1)	Serious money burner takes another class drop off the claim.
#9 KENYA SUN (6-1)	First or second in 5 of 12 starts, most at this level.
Race Summary	CHASING JOY, the only three-race winner in the field, could return a quick dividend for a sharp claiming barn. She has two wins and two seconds in her last five sprints at this level. Make her today’s Best Bet.

Gulfstream Park - Race #5

#4 INCITATUS (12-1)	Takes some catching at big price for new barn, has two wins at one mile.
#9 HERE COMES BULLET (15-1)	Another who could be forwardly placed a long way at good odds.
#2 PROSPECT PROJECT (8-1)	Finished on both ends of a photo finish recently at Gulfstream.
Race Summary	INCITATUS should lead for as far as he goes at a distance that he conquered twice at Churchill Downs this spring. He’s too good to pass up at 12-1, so play a 2-4-7-9 exacta box.

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KEENELAND PICKS Selections 10/15

Race mr B mr K
R1: 5-4-7 4-5-1
R2: 5-10-12 9-12-11
R3: 4-6-3 3-7-5
R4: 6-1-5 6-5-2
R5: 2-8-3 1-4-2
R6: 7-4-6 1-7-8
R7: 7-12-4 8-4-11
R8: 6-1-5 1-4-3
R9: 6-5-1 7-6-4
R10: 7-4-9 7-10-6

Best Bets
mr B: Race 1 #5 Backsideofthemoon 9/5
mr K: Race 5 #1 megacity 6-1

Longshot
mr B: Race 3 #4 Bizzy Echo 8-1
mr K: Race 2 #9 Iconicus 10-1

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numberFire Keeneland Picks 10/15

R1: 5-6-7
R2: 14-5-16
R3: 5-3-2
R4: 6-5-4
R5: 4-2-3
R6: 4-8-7
R7: 1-5-4
R8: 5-2-6
R9: 6-4-5
R10: 10-7-9

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Racing Dudes Keeneland Picks 10/15

R1: #5 9/5
R2: #11 3/1
R3: #4 8/1
R4: #5 2/1
R5: #2 2/1
R6: #7 8/5
R7: #7 9/2
R8: #1 4/1
R9: #6 1/1
R10: #11 6/1

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Guaranteed Tipsheet Keeneland Picks 10/15

R1: #3 4/1
R2: #16 5/2
R3: #6 3/1
R4: #6 9/5
R5: #4 3/1
R6: #7 8/5
R7: #11 3/1
R8: #6 7/2
R9: #6 1/1
R10: #7 2/1

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Free play from Easy Money Sports

Free Early Saturday Football Selection From Lee
COLORADO +15

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Free play from Arthur Ralph

FreePlay 86-39 21-6 run Sat Penn ST+7