Friday 10/21/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 369829

    #31
    2022 Manikato Stakes betting preview | Friday, October 21
    October 19, 2022 7:27 pm.
    James Herbert

    What 2022 Manikato Stakes
    Where Moonee Valley Racing Club – Feehan Ave, Moonee Ponds VIC 3039
    When Friday, October 21, 2022
    Prizemoney $2,000,000
    Distance 1200m
    Status Group 1
    Conditions Weight For Age
    2021 Winner Jonker (5) | T: Tony Gollan | J: Daniel Moor (58.5kg)

    Visit Ladbrokes

    The Group 1 Manikato Stakes is the feature event on the opening night of the Cox Plate Carnival, and a capacity field of 14 sprinters have accepted for the 1200m dash this Friday night.

    Heading the market is last-start Schillaci Stakes winner Paulele at $3.60, while Moir Stakes quinella Bella Nipotina ($4.40) and Coolangatta ($6) are deemed to be the biggest danger to the Godolphin sprinter.

    It will be the charge of the light brigade early on with Best Of Bordeaux, Rothfire, Roch ‘N’ Horse and Coolangatta from barrier one all looking to hold a prominent spot. Expect the likes of September Run, The Inferno and Jamaea to be settled at the rear of the field and flashing home late.

    Continue reading for HorseBetting’s top selections and $100 betting strategy for the 2022 Manikato Stakes.

    The way the Godolphin sprinter Paulele won the Schillaci Stakes suggested he was going to be hard to beat in the Manikato Stakes if connections opted to bypass The Everest. They did just that, and from barrier six on Friday night he is the one to beat over 1200m at The Valley. With the in-form James McDonald sticking on board, we expect to see Paulele settled three pairs back in the moving line, and as long as ‘JMac’ keeps him out of traffic approaching the home turn, Paulele has the finishing sprint and the ability to finish over the top of some potentially vulnerable leaders. He was run off his feet in the Moir, but with the extra 200m he gets on Friday, Paulele is a deserving favourite with online betting sites.

    September Run had plenty against her in the Moir Stakes when resuming. The 1000m was simply too sharp for her first-up and it was next to impossible to make up ground from the rear of the field on that night. With an even playing surface and the extra furlong, we expect the William Reid Stakes winner from earlier in the year to relish getting back to the Moonee Valley 1200m. She improves with a run under her belt each campaign having won three times from six second-up efforts, and with Kerrin McEvoy stick on board, she is the one backmarker we expect to see flashing home down the centre of the track. If she is not too far back at the 400m mark, she has the electric turn of foot required to put this field away. The $18 on offer with Ladbrokes looks a great each-way price.

    With just 51kg on her back (1kg more than what she carried in her Moir win), Coolangatta has to be respected if she can hold out her rivals again from barrier one. Bella Nipotina will need plenty of luck having drawn barrier two with her want to get back in the field, while last-start Roman Consul Stakes winner Best Of Bordeaux could run a cheeky race up on speed with just 53kg on his back and Tim Clark holding the reins.
    2022 Manikato Stakes selections & best bets

    Selections:

    5
    PAULELE

    bet365
    silks8
    SEPTEMBER RUN

    unibet
    silks13
    BEST OF BORDEAUX

    Ladbrokes
    silks14
    COOLANGATTA

    Palmerbet

    $100 betting strategy
    $70 win Paulele (#5) @ $3.60 with Bet365
    $15 each way September Run (#13) @ $18 / $4.60 with Bet365
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    Comment

    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 369829

      #32
      Today’s Horse Racing Tips – 21st October 2022

      by Racing and Sports

      Racing and Sports highlight our standout plays at Australian TAB meetings for October 21.

      Australian thoroughbred Tab meetings are today held at Moonee Valley, Cranbourne, Gosford, Sunshine Coast, Mackay, Gawler and Canberra.

      MOONEE VALLEY: RACE 7 @ 9:15 PM

      Pace should be hot from the get-go and ROTHFIRE (7) finds himself drawn to land right on the back of it. Can get a perfect run throughout and the step up to 1200m is exactly what he is after now. Good fresh winner then suspect he wanted the step up in trip last time on a night where the pattern dictated plenty. He can bounce back just as PAULELE (5) did to win the Schillaci last time and he again goes with strong winning claims. Draws to be right there with Rothfire and the contest should be a terrific one. BELLA NIPOTINA (10) ran bravely against that pattern behind her stablemate COOLANGATTA (14) in the Moir and has to be a shot at turning the tables in a race that she ran so well in 12 months ago when only narrowly beaten. BEST OF BORDEAUX (13) beat Coolangatta in the Golden Slipper and has done little wrong since. Well worth his shot at these.
      SELECTIONS: Siding with Rothfire in a top contest.

      CRANBOURNE: RACE 2 @ 1:00 PM

      EYE OF THE EAGLE (2) started well in contention first up at Geelong but was beaten by a very good filly in Greece. Stakes placed on debut, he'll strip fitter and looks well placed here from a soft gate. SUTADAMU (5) has placed at both runs this time in, beaten under a length here latest. Can push forward and take running down. TYPICAL YOU (7) wasn't far away in two career runs last time in. He especially ran well on debut at Pakenham and has been given time. Good chance while fresh. COUNT NICHOLAS (1) ran well on debut at Sale when well in the market and will have improved for the experience.
      SELECTIONS: Eye Of The Eagle to win.

      GOSFORD: RACE 6 @ 4:25 PM

      CLOUDLAND (6) was last start winner at Scone on a heavy track when fresh and is unbeaten in both career runs. He races close to the pace and looks to be a horse going places. He should be winning again. LONELY POWER (7) has had three placings from five runs this preparation and ran on late last start at Tamworth, don't treat lightly in an even field. ELLENMAC (2) did very well to finish third at Warwick Farm over 1400m on soft going. She will be even sharper third up and should be thereabouts.
      SELECTIONS: Cloudland win bet.

      SUNSHINE COAST: RACE 7 @ 8:55 PM

      HARD REYVA (6) is building nicely towards another win and does have a very good track record. He will be peaking third up and should be the main danger to the top selection. RISING STAR (5) is fresh up after over a year away from the race track and will benefit from a recent Beaudesert trial win. He will be cherry-ripe for a big performance. LADY RAIN (13) sat on the speed and was too strong last time out at Grafton. That was a good confidence-building win and she should be hard to hold out again.
      SELECTIONS: Hard Reyva win bet.

      MACKAY: RACE 3 @ 2:19 PM

      ROCK 'N' SOL (2) threatened and then was a comfortable winner this trip. Has more weight but will take beating. BOOM GATE (1) has been racing well without winning. Returning to this distance shouldn't bother. In the mix. SALSA DREAMING (3) comes back in trip and won't be far away. YUAN FEN (7) has been in the market at his last couple of starts but hasn't made an impression. Could be a chance in this small field.
      SELECTIONS: Backing Rock'N'Sol to win.

      GAWLER: RACE 2 @ 3:05 PM

      PORTATION (5) has run third at three career starts, including when first up at Murray Bridge this time in, only run down very late. Will strip fitter for the run and will appreciate the extra 100m. Maps ideally and should be going close. KATINA JOY (7) struggled at this track and distance last time out when in the market but ran well here prior and can improve sharply. ALEKHINE'S GUN (1) has trialled fairly well, watch the market for any moves.
      SELECTIONS: Portration to win.

      CANBERRA: RACE 9 @ 6:40 PM

      SECRETIVELY (14) switched to Matt Dale from a Sydney barn and resumed well-supported on the heavy at Moruya and didn't have the best of it. Second-up is no bother and he has strong metropolitan back-form. Penza's booking suggests he's on-song. FANGELA (8) resumes for another leading Canberra barn and the fresh record is good. Gets in well with the 2kg claim and should go close. MAJOR TIME (9) resumes from a low gate and is right up to this at best. The barn can spring a surprise. CALESCENT (1) is the second Dale runner and the Sydney run would have topped her off. Keep safe. SELECTIONS: Backing Secretively each way.
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      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 369829

        #33
        Interstate Racing Tips – October 21st

        Home - Featured - Interstate Racing Tips – October 21st

        RSN927

        RSN Analyst Ben Hall covers all the daily racing tips for the NSW meeting at the Gosford on Friday the 21st of October.

        Rail Position: True
        Dual Track Meeting: N
        Track Type: Turf
        Track Condition: Soft 5
        Weather: Overcast
        Ben Hall Gosford Tips

        Gosford, 21st October 2022

        Race 1 Selections:3,7,1,6
        Race 2 Selections:3,9,2,5
        Race 3 Selections:6,13,12,15
        Race 4 Selections:4,6,2,3
        Race 5 Selections:6,5,8,10
        Race 6 Selections:6,2,9,7
        Race 7 Selections:3,4,10,5
        Race 8 Selections:6,5,12,2

        Sky Racecaller Josh Fleming covers all the daily racing tips for the QLD meeting at the Sunshine Coast on Friday the 21st of October.

        Rail Position: True Entire Course
        Dual Track Meeting: N
        Track Type: Turf
        Track Condition: Soft 5
        Weather: Raining
        Josh Fleming Sunshine Coast Tips

        Sunshine Coast, 21st October 2022

        Race 1 Selections: 1,3,4,8
        Race 2 Selections:3,6,1,4
        Race 3 Selections: 10,8,3,9
        Race 4 Selections:6,7,3,10
        Race 5 Selections:10,8,1,9
        Race 6 Selections:6,1,7,2
        Race 7 Selections:10,6,8,13
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        Comment

        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 369829

          #34
          DRF's Horse Racing Playbook for Friday, October 21, 2022

          DRF Staff

          Daily Racing Form has served as the most trusted source of news and information about the sport since 1894, and moving forward we have decided to provide a free daily playbook – something that both hardcore horseplayers and casual observers can reference to get informed of each day’s action.

          1:06 BAQ 2nd HAMMERIN AAMER (#4, 5-2) was in excellent form toward the end of last year while winning three of four (and finishing second in the other) while steadily rising on class; carried that form into the first part of 2022 to hit the board in two starts vs. better, and then winning for twice this price - with an excellent ride from Davis playing a part; has remained popular at the claim box and can get this distance. -Mike Beer | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

          1:51 WO 2nd PASSIONPLATE (#3, 10-1) never threatened at 4-1 when debuting in a six-furlong contest on the main track. The son of G2-winning grasser Passion for Action is a half-brother to turf stakes winner Fair Maiden, who was a close third in the G1 Natalma. -Ron Gierkink | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

          2:04 KEE 3rd Fanduel / Fairmount-based trainer Steve Manley is 5-2-0-1 at KEE fall meets since 2018 and already has a winner this meeting. He only took over RESURRECTION ROAD's (#4, 10-1) training a couple months ago, and first time out for the barn the mare improved immeasurably and was bet at HAW like a lot of people knew it was happening. This horse has run well several times at KEE, too, and doesn't absolutely have to have the lead. -Marcus Hersh | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

          2:20 LRL 4th POET IN MY HEART (#5, 4-1) likely gained valuable experience in career debut for the $45,000 waiver. Bumped at the start, she tracked the pace outside, split horses with a four-wide bid on the turn, then flattened out and took some dirt in the stretch. Drops, adds Lasix, and can show speed stretching out slightly in distance. -Dan Illman | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

          2:22 WO 3rd TAKE CHARGE SOUSI (#7, 6-1) sagged after an inside/stalking trip in a recent two-turn experiment. He's cutting back to three-quarters in this light maiden special and should be dangerous on a repeat of his penultimate race, in which he was disqualified from first in a seven-furlong test for OS/$40K maidens. -Ron Gierkink | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

          2:54 WO 4th GOZILLA (#3, 6-1) has had a break since getting claimed from a flat fourth at this $25K NW2 level on Aug. 5 by a trainer with good stats off the halter switch. Note that he earned solid Beyers in the first race in each of his two previous form cycles. -Ron Gierkink | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

          2:59 GP 6th ISLAND MAGIC (#1, 7-2) a much improved sort of late. Ran winning effort last time after fanning very wide into stretch, failing to switch leads down lane. Might just avenge setback to AMERICAN TAP with a cleaner run. -Mike Welsch | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

          3:16 BAQ 6th ADAM'S ANGEL (#4, 6-1) finished a good second behind a sharp winner in her only start as a 2yo; got shuffled back briefly and caught some traffic before tiring in her return from the layoff at Saratoga; turf to dirt with the pedigree to improve with some added distance. -Mike Beer | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

          3:40 KEE 6th SPARKLE OF HOPE (#5, 8-1) and CODE NAME KATE ran second and first, respectively, in a common last start at CD, and perhaps SOH turns the tables this time. That last race was very slow paced and CNK easily got the better trip. Far more speed entered here, and the cut back from 6 1/2 to a straight 6f could help SOH, whose lone win came over 5 1/2 furlongs. -Marcus Hersh | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

          4:35 GP 9th WELD HALL (#4, 5-1) well backed for debut, turned in even effort while hung wide late. Worked sharp half from gate subsequent to that outing. -Mike Welsch | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

          7:00 WBS (Harness) 1st IM HUNGRY (#8, 5-1) is a homebred half-sister to 2022 Meadowlands Pace winner Beach Glass. She probably has more speed than you see on her card and she gets the call to win at first asking here. – Garnet Barnsdale | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

          7:28 MED 2nd DONYA'S MAGIC (#3, 8-1) weakened late in her last two starts going long on the turf but this projects to be a much better pace scenario than she faced in that last pair, as she was in races with other pacesetters in those contests and she appears to be the main speed tonight; license to steal this if she can back down the fractions on a clear lead. -Kenny Peck | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

          7:44 SA 8th First-time starter CAPTAIN SPARROW (#3, 5-1) debuts with a series of fast works including a bullet three-eighths from the gate on Sunday that suggests he is well-meant first out. His dam was an allowance-caliber stakes-placed turf filly who finished second by a nose in her career debut; her first runner won his career debut. -Brad Free | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

          7:56 MED 3rd LEO MONTE (#10, 4-1) is a DRF Best Bet (Kenny Peck). | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

          8:00 YR (Harness) 4th NEW HEAVEN (#5, 9-2) was a bit better last week and he drops down to a level where he's much more effective; veteran can get the winning trip with an alert getaway. – Matt Rose | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

          8:24 MED 4th HARD KNOCKING (#6, 6-1) failed as the favorite in each of his last two but those were no easy trips, as he moved prematurely in his latest and he was caught up in a battle on the front end two back, through a decent opening fractions; best recent Beyers make him a threat tonight and he can atone here if he can work out a more favorable trip. -Kenny Peck | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

          9:05 RP 3rd EXPENSIVE LIAISON (#8, 8-1) figures to be strong through the stretch on the cutback to one turn. She's a half-sister to Grade 3 winner Hits Pricey Legacy, who goes later on the card in the Distaff. -Mary Rampellini | Get PPs for this race
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          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 369829

            #35
            Horse racing predictions: Cheltenham, Newbury and Doncaster – Friday October 21

            Today’s racing picks are from Cheltenham, Newbury and Doncaster. Read our expert’s nap of the day, next best and other selections
            By Enda McElhinney

            If jumps action wasn’t already back in the consciousness of racing fans then the first meeting of the new season at Cheltenham will put it squarely in focus.

            Cheltenham (1.35-5.05pm) and Sligo (1.50-5.20) provide the National Hunt fare while Flat racing comes from Newbury (12.50-4.55) and Doncaster (1.10-5.10) on the turf alongside all-weather cards at Newcastle (4.43-8.15) and Dundalk (5.00-8.30).

            Friday’s nap can get Gordon Elliott on the scoresheet on the first day of term at Cheltenham, with the gelding’s stamina likely to be a key asset in a Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle trial contest.
            Horse racing predictions today: Cheltenham, Doncaster and Newbury

            Enda McElhinney’s Friday fancies are below. Scroll down to read the expert analysis behind them.



            Nap: Music Drive (Cheltenham, 2.45) @ SP with Sky Bet

            Next best: Almuhit (Doncaster, 4.05) @ SP with Sky Bet

            Other: Bell Shot (Newbury, 3.45) @ SP with Sky Bet

            Horse racing predictions: Cheltenham 2.45

            The first of this season’s Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle trials over 2m 4f features a strong Irish contingent, with Norman Lee’s She Is Electric on the up after winning in Listed company at Gowran Park three weeks ago. The mare will need to settle a bit better for Rachael Blackmore, who takes over in the saddle, if they are going to fend off the boys now.

            Warwick winner Notnowlinda could progress for Dan and Harry Skelton and is a home-team contender alongside hat-trick seeker The Wounded Knee for Ann Duffield, but it is MUSIC DRIVE that swayed the vote for Gordon Elliott and Davy Russell.

            He has course experience having run a fair eighth of 20 in the Champion Bumper here back in March and he rubber-stamped the idea that stamina will be a forte when winning this month over hurdles at Galway (2m 3
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            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 369829

              #36
              Neil Morrice best bets and tips – Friday 21 October 2022

              Neil Morrice shares all of his best bets and tips from Friday’s racing coming your way from Cheltenham, Newbury, Doncaster and Newcastle on 21 October 2022.


              CHELTENHAM

              Race 2 No4 AUCUNRISQUE (Nap)
              Trainer: Chris Gordon – Jockey: Tom Cannon

              AUCUNRISQUE is a name for your notebook whatever happens in this warm novices’ chase, but it’s one he has the ability to win on the way to better things. The six-year-old triumphed in all but one of his races over hurdles last season before making a winning debut over fences when dispatching Jetoile at Uttoxeter. He’s probably the best horse in the Gordon stable, and could emerge as a contender for the Arkle Trophy as the new campaign unfolds.

              Race 5 No12 SPANISH PRESENT (Each Way)
              Trainer: Martin Keighley – Jockey: Sean Bowen

              From the base of the weights in this handicap hurdle, SPANISH PRESENT takes the eye and is well worth a bet. The six-year-old showed a willing attitude on the way to a clear cut triumph on his return from a break at Worcester. A powerful galloper, he stretched right away on the run in to break his duck over jumps, and might have been underestimated for this first run in a handicap.

              Race 6 No4 ANIGHTINLAMBOURN (Each Way)
              Trainer: Ben Pauling – Jockey: Miss Gina Andrews

              Pauling has strong claims with multiple scorer On Springs who could easily win this, but slight presence is for his mare ANIGHTINLAMBOURN. She is also going to post on a high following smooth successes at Worcester. With her tail up and a good amateur on board for the first time she holds a strong earning chance and is definitely not a second arrow.
              NEWBURY

              Race 1 No13 TIRIAC (Each Way)
              Trainer: Mick Channon – Jockey: George Bass

              While the Channon stable very rarely has one ready first time, TIRIAC could prove an exception to the case, and with cut in the ground sure to suit him he’ll be going on at the finish. The brother to smart Nastase works well with the best juveniles at West Ilsley, while his apprentice rider has played a considerable part in his tuition at home.

              Race 2 No10 MUDSKIPPER
              Trainer: David Menuisier – Jockey: James Doyle

              MUDSKIPPER showed that cut in the ground holds no perils for him when chasing home High Honour at GOODWOOD last month. It was a fair step up from his first offering, when he was unplaced at Sandown, and he’s now ready to open his account at the main expense of Rajasthan.

              Race 5 No7 JACOVEC CAVERN
              Trainer: Mick Channon – Jockey: Hollie Doyle

              JACOVEC CAVERN hasn’t been beaten far in strongly contested handicaps at this course and Redcar, especially when only three lengths adrift of the winner Zimmerman on his latest start. This is probably his optimum trip (mile and threequarters), and with the galloping track and easy going also to suit he should take home a cheque.

              Race 8 No1 MAIN FACT (Nap)
              Trainer: David Pipe – Jockey: Oliver Searle

              It will be fascinating to see how the long absent MAIN FACT gets on running for the first time in over 18 months. The now nine-year-old was a high class dual purpose horse before injury forced him onto the sidelines, and enjoyed a field day around this time two years ago when success at this course sparked a fine hat-trick. Horses from his stable are rarely compromised by lay-offs, and he’s ready to pick up the thread from where he left off.
              DONCASTER

              Race 3 No2 DOOM
              Trainer: William Haggas – Jockey: Tom Marquand

              Dubawi filly DOOM is bred to handle testing conditions, though the ground can often be better on Town Moor at this time of year. The daughter of Breeders’ Cup Filly And Mare Turf winner Dank went down in a blanket finish at Newcastle, and is set to build on that pleasing effort bey opening her account.

              Race 6 No3 TRAILA (Nap)
              Trainer: David Simcock – Jockey: William Buick

              A change of stables doesn’t seem to have done TRAILA any harm judged upon his good effort against The Gadget Man at Yarmouth. Easy to back on that occasion, he picked up well from off the pace and was a tad unlucky not to win. He’s a strong staying type that can cause problems to paper favourite Almuhit.

              Race 8 No7 MORNING SUN (Each Way)
              Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute – Jockey: Ryan Moore

              As one of the least experienced horses in this huge field, MORNING SUN has potential to progress on what is just a second outing for the gelding in a handicap. He finished off his race strongly when second at Windsor in identical underfoot conditions, and has worked with aplomb since that end-of-August effort.
              NEWCASTLE

              Race 3 No8 STAR SOUND (Nap)
              Trainer: Kevin Ryan – Jockey: Shane Gray

              STAR SOUND attracted plenty of market support before finding only Lord Sam’s Castle too strong on her debut here. She’s sharpened up for that pleasing effort, and coupled with her track knowledge from a stable whose juveniles are going well, she should go one better.

              Race 8 No5 DESERT LAND (Each Way)
              Trainer: Keith Dalgleish – Jockey: Billy Garritty

              DESERT LAND has rarely missed, posting figures of 121012 since his switch to the Dalgleish stable. Those efforts include a win at this course last month, and a near miss back at Gosforth Park last week. In current mood he looks a reliable entity to earn in the lucky nightcap.

              Place Accumulator Perm (Races 2-8)

              9, 3 x 8 x 3, 1, 9 x 2 x 4, 7, 5 x 4, 3, 5 x 5, 11, 8

              R162
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              • Can'tPickAWinner
                Super Moderator
                • Nov 2012
                • 369829

                #37
                The Hare Wins - Randy Hare

                THE HARE WINS
                FRIDAY, OCTOBER 21, 2022

                Race 1 Oklahoma Classics Filly & Mare Starter 7 Furlongs
                # 11 – Eutychia Stepped up in her last race & closed well for 2nd vs tough company
                # 6 – Okie Front 5 of 6 in the $$ this year
                # 8 – Gospel Carlotta Found the winner’s circle last start with closing move & Luis Q up
                # 2 – Juliard Honor Troubled trip last time after sharp win on 9-14
                $1 Exacta Box: 11-6-8 Cost: $6.00 2 out of the 3 horses must finish 1st and 2nd in any order.
                $.50 Pick 5: 11-6 / 8-7-6 / 5-4 / 4-3-6 / 4 Cost: $18.00 Pick the winners of races 1-5.

                Race 2 Oklahoma Classics Starter 7 Furlongs
                # 8 – Rosie’s Outlaw Been facing tougher company & should like this level
                # 7 – Dobbins G Doesn’t run often but when he does he’s ready
                # 6 – Sedaris Added blinkers last time to score first win of the year
                # 1 – Ronald Dale Didn’t like the sloppy track on 9-1 other than that he’s been consistent
                $1 Exacta Box: 8-7-6 Cost: $6.00 2 out of the 3 horses must finish 1st and 2nd in any order.
                $.50 Premier Pick 4: 8-7-6 / 5-4 / 4-3-6 / 4 Cost: $9.00 Pick the winners of races 2-5.

                Race 3 Oklahoma Classics Lassie 6 Furlongs
                # 5 - Doudoudouwanadance Sharp debut winner as the favorite
                # 4 – Artistic Vision Speedy filly won her debut on 9-16
                # 2 – Cueca Closed well to win her debut & should love the extra distance
                # 1 – Smart Okie Easy winner in 2nd start after finishing 3rd vs open company
                $1 Exacta Box: 5-4-2 Cost: $6.00 2 out of the 3 horses must finish 1st and 2nd in any order.
                $.50 Kick Off Pick 3: 5-4 / 4-3-6 / 4 Cost: $3.00 Pick the winners of races 3, 4, 5.
                R
                ace 4 Oklahoma Classics Juvenile 6 Furlongs
                # 4 – Eakly 2nd in debut @CD in June, was maiden winner in last start @RP
                # 3 – Runway Run Away Scored 15 length maiden win in his 2nd start
                # 6 – Just Okie Closed well to win in his debut
                # 9 – Ghost Hero 2nd to #4 Eakly in his last start
                $1 Exacta Box: 4-3-6 Cost: $6.00 2 out of the 3 horses must finish 1st and 2nd in any order.
                $.50 Pick 3: 4-3-6 / 4 / 7-4 Cost: $3.00 Pick the winners of races 4, 5, 6.

                Race 5 Oklahoma Classics Distaff Turf 1-1/16 Miles (turf)
                # 4 – Run Slewpy Run Unbeaten on the RP turf & @ this distance
                # 2 – Morning Twilight 2nd to #4 last time in just 2nd try on the turf
                # 1 – Plenty of Vision 5 of 8 in the $$ this year but best on turf was 3rd last out to the #4
                # 5 – Fightingtemptation Makes first start on the turf after finishing 3rd in tough allowance race
                $1 Exacta Box: 4-2-1 Cost: $6.00 2 out of the 3 horses must finish 1st and 2nd in any order.
                $.50 Pick 3: 4 / 7-4 / 6-8-1 Cost: $3.00 Pick the winners of races 5, 6, 7.

                Race 6 Oklahoma Classics Distaff 1 Mile & 70 Yards
                # 7 – She’s All Wolfe Graded stakes winner and defending champion
                # 4 – Hits Pricey Legacy Comes off sharp win in G-3 RP Oaks
                # 5 – Kachina Adds blinkers since finishing 3rd to #4 in Oklahoma Stallion Stakes
                # 1 – She’s Shiney 4th last time to the #7
                $1 Exacta Box: 7-4-5 Cost: $6.00 2 out of the 3 horses must finish 1st and 2nd in any order.
                $.50 Pick 3: 7-4 / 6-8-1 / 1-5 Cost: $6.00 Pick the winners of races 6, 7, 8.
                $.50 All Stakes Pick 5: 7-4 / 6-8-1 / 1-5 / 6-3-5 / 8-1-7 Cost: $54.00 Pick the winners of races 6-10.

                Race 7 Oklahoma Classics Distaff Sprint 6 Furlongs
                # 6 – Sunday Flashback Winner of this dash last year & never worse than 4th in 8 starts
                # 8 - Dicey 3rd vs open allowance company on 9-3 & 4 of 5 in the $$ this year
                # 1 – Ragan’s Jet Won her last 2 starts & 6 of 7 in the $$ this year
                # 5 – Our Bet Lightly raced filly has 2 wins @RP this year
                $1 Exacta Box: 6-8-1 Cost: $6.00 2 out of the 3 horses must finish 1st and 2nd in any order.
                $.50 Pick 3: 6-8-1 / 1-5 / 6-3-5 Cost: $9.00 Pick the winners of races 7, 8, 9.
                $.50 Primetime Pick 4: 6-8-1 / 1-5 / 6-3-5 / 8-1-7 Cost: $27.00 Pick the winners of races 7-10.

                Race 8 Oklahoma Classics Sprint 6 Furlongs
                # 1 – Tommyhawk 7 of 8 in the $$ this year loves the distance & might surprise here
                # 5 – Shannon C Winner of this dash last year & 5 of 5 in the $$ this year
                # 3 – Salt Creek Kid Allowance winner of last 2 starts
                # 4 – Fly to the Bank Just held on to win his last start @5
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                • Can'tPickAWinner
                  Super Moderator
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 369829

                  #38
                  Top Shot - Jerry Shottenkirk
                  TOP SHOT
                  Remington Park Selections
                  Friday, October 21

                  1st Race
                  11 EUTYCHIA
                  2 JULIARD HONOR
                  3 HIGH CLASS EURO
                  4 GP’S AMAZING GRACE

                  2nd Race
                  3 POP’S BISCUIT
                  8 ROSIE’S OUTLAW
                  7 DOBBINS G
                  9 CANEY’S GHOST

                  3rd Race
                  4 ARTISTIC VISION
                  5 DOUDOUDOUWANADANCE
                  2 CUECA
                  6 MAMASHAVNAHOTFLASH

                  4th Race
                  6 JUST OKIE
                  1 CONNORS OUTLAW
                  4 EAKLY
                  9 GHOST HERO

                  5th Race
                  1 PLENTY OF VISION
                  4 RUN SLEWPY RUN
                  2 MORNING TWILIGHT
                  3 IMA SKYWALKER

                  6th Race
                  7 SHE’S ALL WOLFE
                  4 HITS PRICEY LEGACY
                  1 SHE’S SHINEY
                  3 GOTTA SEE RED

                  7th Race
                  1 RAGAN’S JET
                  6 SUNDAY FLASHBACK
                  8 DICEY
                  5 OUR BET

                  8th Race
                  7 MESA MOON
                  5 SHANNON C
                  1 TOMMYHAWK
                  3 SALT CREEK KID

                  9th Race
                  6 THAT’S SOMETHING
                  1 BECKETT’S LUCKYDAY
                  3 NUMBER ONE DUDE
                  5 ABSAROKA

                  10th Race
                  8 TAP THE DOT
                  11 QUARKY
                  7 MORHAWK
                  1 HALF OURS TO KEEP

                  TODAY’S BEST BET
                  ARTISTIC VISION (3rd)

                  PICK FIVE
                  (Races 1-5)
                  11-2-3-4 with 3-8-7-9 with 4-5 with 6-1 with 1-4 ($64)

                  PREMIER PICK FOUR
                  (Races 2-5)
                  3-8-7-9 with 4-5 with 6-1-4 with 1-4-2 ($36)

                  ALL-STAKES PICK FIVE
                  (Races 6-10)
                  7-4 with 1-6 with 7-5-1 with 6-1-3-5 with 8-11 ($48)

                  PRIMETIME PICK FOUR
                  (Races 7-10)
                  1-6 with 7-5-1-3 with 6-1-3-5 with 8-11 ($36)
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                  • Can'tPickAWinner
                    Super Moderator
                    • Nov 2012
                    • 369829

                    #39
                    Robin Goodfellow's racing tips: Best bets for Friday, October 21

                    By Sam Turner For The Daily Mail

                    Sportsmail's racing expert Robin Goodfellow delivers his tips for Friday's meetings at Doncaster, Cheltenham, Newcastle, and Newbury.

                    DONCASTER

                    ROBIN GOODFELLOW

                    1. 10 Gulmarg

                    1.45 Sacred Flower

                    2.20 Winter’s Love

                    2.55 Hosanna Power

                    3.30 Dakota Gold

                    4.05 Traila

                    4.38 First Officer (nap)

                    5.10 Mustazeed

                    GIMCRACK

                    1.10 Swift Lioness

                    1.45 Sacred Flower

                    2.20 Humankind

                    2.55 Havana Blue

                    3.30 Mums Tipple (nb)

                    4.05 Almuhit (nap)

                    4.38 Lizzie Jean

                    5.10 Morning Sun

                    Newmarket – 5.10 Aldbourne (nap)
                    ADVERTISEMENT

                    Northerner – 4.38 Dubai Leader (nb)


                    NEWCASTLE

                    ROBIN GOODFELLOW

                    4.43 Golden Shot

                    5.15 Rocket Rod

                    5.45 Azure Angel 6.15 Lupset Flossy Pop

                    6.45 Kingori 7.15 Kasino

                    7.45 Capital Offence

                    8.15 Unashamed

                    GIMCRACK

                    4.43 Golden Shot

                    5.15 Kanakam

                    5.45 Star Sound 6.15 Santabella

                    6.45 Kingori 7.15 Kasino

                    7.45 Capital Offence

                    8.15 Novak

                    Newmarket – 5.45 Azure Angel (nb)

                    Northerner – 7.15 Kasino (nap)


                    CHELTENHAM

                    ROBIN GOODFELLOW

                    1.35 Lively Citizen

                    2.10 Ash Tree Meadow

                    2.45 She Is Electric

                    3.20 Pull Again Green

                    3.55 Listentillitellyea

                    4.30 Madera Mist

                    5.05 Hullnback

                    GIMCRACK

                    1.35 Thibault

                    2.10 Uhtred

                    2.45 Apple Away

                    3.20 Tullybeg

                    3.55 Onagatheringstorm

                    4.30 The Newest One

                    5.05 Hullnback



                    NEWBURY

                    ROBIN GOODFELLOW

                    12.50 Vasilissa

                    1.25 Scintillante

                    2.00 Torito

                    2.35 Misty Dancer

                    3.10 Frantastic

                    3.45 Final Watch (nb)

                    4.20 Lord Dudley

                    4.55 Tralee Hills

                    GIMCRACK

                    12.50 Prospering

                    1.25 Graham

                    2.00 Salamancan

                    2.35 Misty Dancer

                    3.10 Beny Nahar Road

                    3.45 Bell Shot

                    4.20 Dora Penny

                    4.55 Zikan
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                    • Can'tPickAWinner
                      Super Moderator
                      • Nov 2012
                      • 369829

                      #40
                      Belmont at the Big A Horses in Focus for Friday, October 21
                      Posted on October 20, 2022 by David Aragona

                      RACE 4: PARSIMONY (#2)

                      I’m trying to beat likely favorite Its All Relevant (#8) here. I know this gelding has been a win machine throughout his career, primarily at Aqueduct. However, I haven’t been thrilled with his recent form. He lacked some of his early speed when he was run off the board three back, and I thought he had no excuse to get run down last time. He was allowed to get away with a soft opening quarter that day and still came up empty late. The Rudy Rodriguez hasn’t exactly been as potent as usual ever since Saratoga, so I’m looking at others. The logical alternative is Giocare (#4), the other horse from the Rudy Rodriguez barn. He’s getting class relief after proving no match for a tougher field last time. He’ll be coming late if the race falls apart, but his lack of early speed always puts him in a difficult position. I prefer two other alternatives at bigger prices. One of those is Warrior in Chief (#5), who makes his first start off a trainer switch to Ray Handal. This is a pretty significant trainer upgrade on a horse who once had competitive form, as Handal is 6 for 18 (33%, $2.88 ROI) off a trainer switch over the past 2 years. He’s been running poorly in his recent starts but is not dropping down to the lowest level of his career, and he has the tactical speed to pressure Its All Relevant early. My top pick is Parsimony (#2). I know this horse doesn’t have a reputation for winning races, as he’s settled for many a minor award in his career. However, it wasn’t that long ago that he was running races that would make him a strong fit against this group. I won’t hold his last race in the slop against him, as he was facing much tougher rivals, and he didn’t get the best trip two back. I like the turnback to a mile for him and he figures to be a fair price.

                      RACE 5: NO REGARD (#10)

                      Likely favorite Disarmed (#4) got a pretty rough trip on debut and finished a disappointing fourth as the odds-on favorite. He again took money in his second start and earned a much better result despite another odd trip. He took an erratic course into the stretch, bumping another foe before finding a path between horses. He ultimately just missed, but was flattered when winner Vacation Dance returned to finish third in the G3 Futurity with. A repeat of that performance makes him awfully tough here and he still has some room to improve. He just doesn’t figure to be much of a price here. I greatly prefer him to his main rival Makar (#8), who was lucky not to be disqualified in his last start at Saratoga. He badly fouled multiple rivals at the start, cutting over several paths after leaving the gate. That allowed him to secure a clear early lead, but he still got run down in the late stages. If I’m going to take a shot against the favorite, I want to do so with a new face. First time starter No Regard (#10) has already sold at 4 different auctions, for whatever that’s worth. The highest price tag was $57k as a yearling, and most recently went for $45k at OBS June after working a furlong in 10 2/5. To my eye, he looked like a turf horse in that drill, which makes sense given the pedigree. Astern is a 19% juvenile debut sire whose progeny win 18% of their turf sprint starts. The dam, a minor winner on dirt, was 0 for 2 on turf and her lone foal never tried it. However, the second dam is multiple turf winner Spangled. John Terranova is 4 for 33 (12%, $5.71 ROI) with first time starters on turf over 5 years, and has won with plenty of these types in the past.

                      RACE 8: DAUNT (#5)

                      I didn’t think likely favorite Orchestration (#3) had much of an excuse to lose last time when he tried this distance for the first time. Winner Shawyshawdyshawdy has been in great form lately, but Orchestration got first run on that one and just didn’t produce much of a kick to the wire. He’s drawn well here and makes sense, but I didn’t want to settle for a short price on him. I’m most interested in a few 3-year-olds. Given the lack of pace in this race, I think you have to consider Good Medicine (#10). He’s not the quickest horse, but he should get another aggressive ride after breaking his maiden while setting the pace at this distance last time. He clearly prefers these longer trips and I think he’s subtly been moving forward for Todd Pletcher. I’m also intrigued by both horses exiting the G3 Jockey Club Derby earlier in the meet. The Grey Wizard (#9) is the one who figures to attract more attention after finishing second to the talented Nations Pride in that spot. However, he got a great trip, just saving ground on the turns before slipping through inside in the stretch. I prefer Daunt (#5) out of that race. He was uncharacteristically close to the pace while racing off the rail path throughout, and it did feel like the inside was an advantage during that time at Aqueduct. He never threw in the towel despite fading to fifth. I’ve always wanted to see this horse concentrate on marathon distances since he’s such a scopey galloper. This is a more realistic spot for him and he figures to go off at a generous price once again.
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                      • Can'tPickAWinner
                        Super Moderator
                        • Nov 2012
                        • 369829

                        #41
                        Belmont at the Big A Hotlist - October 21

                        October 20, 2022

                        Today’s New York Hot List races to watch – Friday, October 21, 2022
                        By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

                        Hot List Key:
                        A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
                        *C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
                        *D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
                        * - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

                        1st race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (3) Valentino’s Here made a huge improvement in his second start last month when he had the lead in the stretch before finishing second. (4) Ouster came back from a layoff, moved from dirt to turf, and will now stretch out in distance. (2) Conquist is projected to be on the lead as he gets back on the grass. He had a second when he finished between two horses that came back to win. (5) Born Dancer has been off since August when was third in a NY Stallion Series Stakes race.

                        3rd race [Alw 50000s, 1 1/8 mi] – (1) Emperor’s Cause (C) was bet down from 7-1 to 5-1 following a three-month layoff and rallied to finish second. (3) Endowed was second in his last two races in starter allowances and can be on the lead in this field. (4) Millean returned from a layoff to show improvement in two starts at Laurel Park with increased speed figures. (7) Abundant Honor broke his maiden by seven lengths in his second race back from a layoff in his first start at Aqueduct.

                        6th race [Md Sp Wt, 7F] – (2) Liquidity Provider was on the lead or pressing the pace in her first two starts for Chad Brown. Last time she finished third behind a filly that came back to win her next start. (7) Ultima Copa had two very good starts at Gulfstream Park during the winter for the Clement barn and now comes back from a February layoff. (5) Mattapoisett was a $775,000 weanling purchase making her fourth start for Bill Mott. (3) Carats and Cake will make her first career start for eFive Racing and Rudy Rodriguez. The dam produced two winners of more than $100,000.

                        9th race [Md 40000, 6F TURF] – (3) Divine Wine (B) came back from more than a year off, broke very slowly in last, and rallied fast to get up for fourth. (4) Lady Firefoot was well bet in all three of her starts. Last time she was moved off the turf and ran third at BAQ. (2) Abstract Moment has been racing in maiden special weights and now moves to the barn of Michelle Nevin after setting the pace at Kentucky Downs in her last start. (5) Mostly Harmless has lot of starts but many of them produced speed figures that make her a contender in this field.

                        Best bets: Liquidity Provider (6th); Divine Wine (9th). Best value: Valentino’s Here (1st); Emperor’s Cause (3rd).

                        No.


                        Name


                        Letter/
                        last race


                        Today's Race


                        Comments

                        (1)


                        Emperor’s Cause


                        C on 9/15


                        3


                        Bet down and rallied for second.

                        (14)


                        M. C. Double R


                        B on 9/22


                        5


                        Entered for Main Track Only.

                        (3)


                        Divine Wine


                        B on 9/22


                        9


                        Broke slowly, got far back, and then rallied fast.
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                        • Can'tPickAWinner
                          Super Moderator
                          • Nov 2012
                          • 369829

                          #42
                          Keeneland Hotlist - October 21

                          October 20, 2022

                          Today’s Keeneland Hot List races to watch
                          Friday, Oct. 21, 2022

                          By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

                          Hot List Key:

                          A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
                          *C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
                          *D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
                          * - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

                          1st race – (4) Keystone Field returns to dirt and should respond with a better effort. (6) Peekacho fits in nicely with this group. (1) Fan Club could perk up in a claimer. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-6.

                          4th race – (1) Lugan Knight (B) was a game second in his debut and can graduate here. (4) Empire’s Best should be a main threat in his debut. (3) Hineni is another first who seems to have some potential. (12) Sunset Town merits attention in this field. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-4-12. Doubles: 1-3-4-12 with 1-6-7-8.

                          5th race – (1) Eyes On Target has been no worse than third in his last six starts and should work out a winning trip from the rail. (7) Samburu is making his U.S. debut with Mott and merits attention. (6) Dominican Pioneer comes off a sharp win and should be in the picture here. (8) Creed will be a stretch threat in this field. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-6-7-8.

                          7th race – (3) Victory Formation is working quickly for his debut and looks like the one to beat. (1) Communication Memo was third in his debut and could be the main rival. (8) Santorini is a firster who seems to have some potential. (11) Release McCraken can last for a share. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-8-11.

                          9th race – (9) Falconet led until the final strides when he lost by a neck. Should hang on in this spot. (4) Skratch Kat was third behind the top pick and will be closing nicely at the end. (1) Frippet was second in her last start on dirt and belongs in the exotics here. (6) Dorothea seeks a third straight win and should not be ignored. Betting strategy: 9 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-6-9.

                          No.


                          Letter/Last race


                          Today’s race




                          Comment
















                          (1)


                          Lugan Knight


                          B, 9/21


                          4 Kee


                          Was a good second in career debut
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                          • Can'tPickAWinner
                            Super Moderator
                            • Nov 2012
                            • 369829

                            #43
                            Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 10/21/22

                            October 21, 2022

                            “What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
                            by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

                            Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
                            *
                            For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

                            *
                            Grade Descriptions:
                            Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
                            Grade B=Solid Play.
                            Grade C=Least preferred or pass
                            Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

                            __________________________________________________ ____________________________
                            RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
                            Main ticket: (in order of preference): Storming Lady; 1=Never for Money
                            Backups/savers: none

                            Forecast: Storming Lady found her best stride too late when finishing third (beaten a half-length) in a $25,000 turf sprint last month at Del Mar but today gets an extra furlong to work with while being raised to the $40,000 level by new trainer Peter Miller (21% off the claim) in a sign of confidence so we’re expecting the veteran mare to be along in time. First or second in eight of 15 starts over the local lawn, she’s always been genuine and consistent. Miller’s other starter – Fulminate - is worth including on your ticket as well due primarily to the projected pace flow, which projects to be quite soft. Back on turf and getting a break in the weights, the sophomore filly could get brave if she can shake loose early. Never for Money sprung a mild 5-1 surprise when winning the same race Storming Lady exits and seems likely to be competitive again. She’s guaranteed a ground-saving trip from the rail, and as a winner of four of 12 career starts, she clearly knows where the wire is.


                            __________________________________________________ ___________________________
                            __________________________________________________ ____________________________

                            RACE 2: Post: 1:31 PT Grade: B
                            Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Over Attracted; 2-Ole Silver
                            Backups/savers: none

                            Forecast: Over Attracted has numbers that should make her tough to beat in this five-runner starter allowance main track miler for fillies and mares. Winless in four starts this year but with an ideal pace-stalking style that should have within striking range throughout, the Caesar DeAlba-trained mare earned a career top speed figure when a solid second in a first-level allowance event at Los Alamitos last month, and a repeat of that effort in this starter allowance affair should be good enough. Ole Silver does her best work on the front end and is a two-time winner (from three starts) over the Santa Anita main track. Front-running tactics very likely will be employed, and if the Phil D’Amato-trained mare can clear the pack early without pressure she could take this field a very long way.


                            __________________________________________________ ____________________________
                            __________________________________________________ ____________________________

                            RACE 3: Post: 2:04 PT Grade: C+
                            Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Mining Crypto; 1-Linger

                            Forecast: This modest maiden $50,000 claiming sprint for older state-bred fillies and mares attracted just five runners, so there’s little to work with in a race that might be best left alone. Mining Crypto has displayed plenty of zip but not much stick, so she can’t be one to trust, yet rates top billing by default. She’ll take them as far as she can, and in a field without any known late speed she might be able to stagger home. Linger is a first-time starter and therefore unexposed, so we’ll toss her in as well. The Ryan Hanson-trained daughter of Mucho Macho Man has been working steadily since late July, so she is sure to be fit, and some of her workout times indicate at least some ability.


                            __________________________________________________ ____________________________
                            __________________________________________________ ____________________________

                            RACE 4: Post: 2:36 PT Grade: C+
                            Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-My Summer Dream; 1-Uncle Jeff
                            Backups/Savers: none

                            Forecast: We’ll go two-deep in the fourth race, a turf sprint for restricted (nw-2) $32,000 claimers that, truthfully, could be won by just about anyone. My Summer Dreamhas failed as the favorite in two of his last three starts but he has a prior win over the local lawn and projects to enjoy a good second flight trip from his outside draw. Juan Hernandez stays aboard for Jeff Mullins, always a high percentage jockey-trainer combo, so we’ll put this Summer Front gelding slightly on top. Uncle Jeff, sixth in the same race My Summer Dream just finished fourth in, has enough early speed to secure a good stalking trip from his rail draw, and given his projected favorable trip the Vladimir Cerin-trained gelding should improve enough to pose a threat. He’s solid in the speed figure department and broke his maiden sprinting over this turf course in his debut last year.


                            __________________________________________________ ___________________________
                            __________________________________________________ ____________________________

                            RACE 5: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: C+
                            Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Sugar Sugar; 5-Miss Baylee
                            Backups/savers: none

                            Forecast: Sugar Sugar, first off the claim for Steve Knapp (a respectable 17% with this angle), returns to the same level and appears to have found a bottom-rung ($20,000) maiden claiming field she can beat. She was seven lengths clear of the rest in a similar affair at Los Alamitos last month and nothing more should be needed today to handle this below average group. Miss Baylee, the 9/5 morning line favorite, has enough early speed to be a strong pace factor and has managed to hit the board in four of her last five starts. She is competitive with our top pick on based on speed figures and won’t have to improve much to earn her diploma.


                            __________________________________________________ ____________________________
                            __________________________________________________ ____________________________

                            RACE 6: Post: 3:40 PT Grade: B-
                            Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Opry
                            Backups/savers: 6-Southern King

                            Forecast: Opry was claimed in his last pair, most recently at this $25,000 level by trainer Jeff Bonde, but missed when second as the favorite in a similar affair at Del Mar in mid-August and will be making his first start in more than two months. That’s not a healthy pattern, but if he can come close to his best race in his first start for new connections the lightly raced six-year-old gelding should be capable of regaining his winning form. In the frame in 10 of 16 career starts and with several numbers that are better than par for this class, the son of Declaration of War is assured a ground-saving trip from the rail and should have no excuses. Southern King has been winless for more than two years, but he usually gets a piece of the purse and seems like a logical exacta partner with our top pick. He’s a one-paced grinder but has enough tactical speed to inherit a good stalking position and then have his chance from there.


                            __________________________________________________ ____________________________
                            __________________________________________________ ____________________________

                            RACE 7: Post: 4:12 PT Grade: C+
                            Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Reckoning Day; 2-Black Storm; 3-Devoted to You
                            Backups/savers: 6-El Diablo Rojo

                            Forecast: This $12,500 claiming sprint for older horses has several possibilities – some at good prices – so a “spread” strategy in rolling exotic play probably should be employed. Reckoning Day won a race at this level at Los Alamitos last month and if he duplicates that performance on the big track he can win right back. However, form doesn’t always travel well between the two ovals, so we’ll put him on top with a low degree of confidence. Black Storm, a $12,500 Steve Knapp claim after finishing third behind our top pick last time out, is a seven-time winner at Santa Anita and could easily turn the tables today. He lacks tactical speed but may be heard from late if the pace flow cooperates. Minnesota invader Devoted to You will be seeking ship-and-win bonus money, and though most of his recent races have been routing on grass the son of Bayern has sprinted successfully on dirt in the past and may be the most dangerous of the early speed types. El Diablo Rojo removes blinkers and drops to his lowest level ever, so this Craig Lewis-trained gelding, a two-time winner over the local main track, seems likely to perk up. Toss him in as a backup.


                            __________________________________________________ ____________________________
                            __________________________________________________ ____________________________

                            RACE 8: Post: 4:38 PT Grade: B-
                            Main ticket (in order of preference): 10-Rexford; 3-Captain Sparrow
                            Backups/savers: none

                            Forecast: Rexford turns back from a mile, exits a productive race, and ran well sprinting on grass in his debut at Del Mar when missing by a neck, so the Phil D’Amato-trained son of Tapiture looks like the logical top pick in this six furlong grass dash for juveniles. He probably can’t beat a decent maiden, but this is a group he might be able to outrun. Captain Sparrow is a son of Speightstown with local drills that indicate he has some zip, and his pedigree suggests he should handle grass. In a race that appears below par, he’s a “must use.” None of the others are particularly inspiring, so let’s try to get by using just these two.

                            Notable Workouts:

                            Captain Sparrow (Oct. 16, 3f, :35.4hg). Grade: B
                            Broke sharply and displayed decent speed in solo gate drill for M. Glatt, :24 flat and :35.3 on our watches, mild coaxing only. Speightstown colt has some zip and should be competitive at first asking if no world beaters show up.
                            View Workout Video

                            Clooney (Oct. 9, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.3hg). Grade: B-
                            Slightly best inside Quincy Market (same time) in gate drill for T. Yakteen, splits of :24.1, :36.3 and :48.3 under mild coaxing. Fair to moderate at this stage, doesn’t act like a particularly quick type at this stage.
                            View Workout Video
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                            • Can'tPickAWinner
                              Super Moderator
                              • Nov 2012
                              • 369829

                              #44
                              Al Cimaglia: Woodbine Mohawk Park Early Pick 4 Analysis

                              October 21, 2022 | By Al Cimaglia

                              Woodbine Mohawk Park has a 12-race card set to roll with the headliners being 2-year-old Breeders Crown Eliminations. The Early Pick 4 starts in Race 4. The sequence is comprised of Elimination races, and it will be my focus.

                              Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

                              Race 4

                              2-Oh Well (6/5)-Should be forwardly placed and the race should go through this talented colt. But hasn't seen action since
                              9-24 and could be content with a nice tune-up before the big money is on the line next week.
                              9-Celebrity Bambino (4-1)-Speedy Ron Burke pupil had the 9-hole versus the chalk on 7-22 and finished 4 3/4 lengths behind Oh Well. The post makes the price and Gingras could put the pedal down as was the case back in July. But this time may not be hell-bent to get the top. Could land in an up-close seat and look to rally down the lane.

                              Race 5

                              3-Walner Payton (3-1)-This is a very consistent filly who has hit the board in 8 of 10 with 3 pictures but hasn't been able to solve the morning line choice #5. This might be time for Dunn to catch a pocket ride and sweep by down the lane. Comes off a sharp win on 10-8, the one below hasn't seen action since 9-30, and both make their Wbsb debut tonight.
                              5-Special Way (7/5)-Winner of 5 straight loved the red clay in Lexington and could continue rolling here. But this chalk didn't have a better record at M1 than the one above and may want to use this start as more of a tune-up.

                              Race 6

                              5-Savethelastdance (5-1)-Blasted out from the 10-hole and JMac had his foot through the floorboard in the 2nd start off the bench. The 53.4 opening half didn't work well and faded down the lane. The speed is there but needs a trip and could find one right behind the one below.
                              6-Charleston (2-1)-The last race was here, on 9-24 in the Great Lady Final. Finished 2nd to Sylvia Hanover that night and qualified nicely at Phl on 10-11. Using instead of the program favorite #8 who hasn't raced on this oval and this gal has had 2 solid efforts at Mohawk.

                              Race 7

                              1-Lyons Surfing (5-1)-Leaving the morning line chalk #6, who hasn't raced since 9-18 out, and will swing for some value. This Jim King entry knows how to win (8-4-1-1). Raced near the top of the stack and drew off by 5 1/4 lengths at Lex on 9-30 in 150.1 mile. Could get the same type of trip here.
                              7-Ammo (6-1)-Not sure how fast this Sweet Lou colt can go but hasn't done anything wrong so far. Finished 2nd in 149.3 at Lex on 10-8 and that was only the 3rd start of the year. David Miller sticks with the Holloway pupil and should offer a square price.
                              10-Save America (7/2)-The post makes the price on this Takter entry and has gone off as the odds-on chalk in the last 6 starts. Has won 3 of 4 Wbsb races and should be a major player. Gingras really has no choice but to leave, the question is how hard.

                              0.20 Early Pick 4

                              2,9/3,5/5,6/1,7,10
                              Total Bet=$4.80
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                              • Can'tPickAWinner
                                Super Moderator
                                • Nov 2012
                                • 369829

                                #45
                                Frank Carulli: Laurel Park Late Pick 4 Analysis Friday, Oct. 21

                                October 21, 2022 | By Frank Carulli

                                LAUREL PARK LATE PICK 4 ANALYSIS
                                Friday, October 21

                                Hachure rallied for a 31-1 upset in the opening leg of the Laurel Park Late Pick 4 last Friday. Three winning favorites followed, producing a $472 payout for a 50-cent wager. This week’s October 21 lineup features eight or more entrants in each leg, three sprints for fillies and mares and a 5-1/2F turf sprint for the boys. Here’s an early look at the action:
                                LRL 6th race (3:14 EST) -- Class droppers abound in this $16,000/nw2 claiming sprint for fillies and mares. TAM CHAR worked forwardly for her seasonal debut but raced evenly in a $40,000 turf sprint. But she is a must use considering the winners of her four main-track starts last year are a combined 22-73 with more than $800,000 in earnings to date. BOSS ANGEL broke her maiden at Laurel Park with ease off a five-month layoff, then lost contact in the stretch while chasing $105k earner Fuhgeddaboudit ($105k) and repeat winner My Flicker (3-8, $78k) in two subsequent starts.
                                LRL 7th race (3:44 EST) -- DIVINE ROMANCE rallied 4-wide to finish second in her debut at Monmouth behind an 8-5 MSW class dropper, and she can be excused for a troubled, second-out run at Pimlico. NEVER DONE willingly pursued the 3-2 winner at 6F and finished second, now adds blinkers off the Capuano claim. ME DARLIN KATHLEEN shows a steady work tab for a 20-percent barn with first-time maiden claimers and her dam, Mellonbrook, won early en route to a 3-13 record and $102k bankroll.
                                LRL 8th race (4:15 EST) -- Last year’s Maryland Juvenile Fillies runner-up JESTER CALLS NOJOY makes her 3-year-old debut on the barn switch from Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher to Brittany Russell, who won the Laurel Park spring meet training title and entered the week tied for the lead at the current meet. Russell wins at an alarming rate with layoff, new acquisition and first-time Lasix types. BANDITS WARRIOR set a clear pace from post 12 in a double-key sprint race and earned the top speed figure of her $105k career on a ‘good’ track at Pimlico last out. MERCURY HEAD tries to carry-over her marked improvement from the turf to the main track and at least offers good value to the Pick 4 ticket.
                                LRL 9th race (4:45 EST) – Taking little to chance in this turf sprint with six multiple-race grass winners, proven form at this level and two last-out winners. Go deep in the final leg of the Pick 4.

                                Suggested 50-cent Ticket
                                LRL 6th Race: 3, 4
                                LRL 7th Race: 1, 4, 6
                                LRL 8th Race: 5, 7, 8
                                LRL 9th Race: 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10
                                COST: $63
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