2-18-09

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Sports Club
February 18, 2009

UEFA Cup:

Zenit St. Petersburg vs. VfB Stuttgart over 2.5

Paris Saint-Germain vs. VfL Wolfsburg over 2.5

Sampdoria -140

Scottish Cup:

Rangers vs. Forfar Athletic over 2.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-18-09

Las Vegas Sport Picks

NBA:

1* Nuggets -1
2* Hawks -5
4* Blazers -11

NCAA:

1* Auburn/Georgia over 135
2* Notre Dame/WVU o146
2* TN-Martin -5
3* Wright St. +3

NHL:

2* Canadians/Capitals over 6

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-18-09

Dr. Canada

Game 1 - Columbus Blue Jackets -140

Game 2 - Red Wings/Predators over 5.5

Game 3 - Canadiens/Capitals over 6

Game 4 - Kings/Ducks over 5.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-18-09

LEE KOSTROSKI

Indiana State @ Southern Illinois
PICK: Indiana State

Southern Illinois continues to live off their past exploits. The fact is, they simply aren’t very good this year. Their record stands at just 11-15 overall and only 6-9 in the Missouri Valley Conference. Their points per possession differential (offensive points per possession minus defensive points per possession) bears out the fact that they are just not very good. For the season overall that number stands at -0.045 and in conference play it drops to -0.051. This team used to be unbeatable at home but that is not the case this season. They are just 7-5 SU at home this year. They have been known as a great shutdown defensive team, however this year they are just 6th in the league in defensive field goal % allowed and 8th in defensive points per possession. The Salukis aren’t playing well enough to lay this number against a resurgent Indiana State squad.

If you simply look at ISU’s overall record, you are not getting the entire story. The Sycamores are just 7-19 overall and 5-10 in the MVC, but a shorter window suggests this team is under valued and really playing well. This team is on a three game winning streak beating third place Illinois State on the road as a 15.5 point dog, then whipping Drake at home as a 3.5 point dog before tripping up Missouri State on the road last Saturday at a 7.5 point puppy. During that 3-game run the Sycamores have shot 48% and allowed just 39%.

SIU is coming off two huge games vs. first place Northern Iowa and second place Creighton. The Salukis had high hopes of turning around their season during that two game stretch, however they were blasted in both games losing by 26 to UNI and by 22 to Creighton. Southern Illinois already beat Indiana State this year on the road so we highly doubt after those two huge games that ISU will get their full attention. Don’t read too much into that 9-point road win for SIU earlier this year as the Sycamores were playing very bad basketball at the time and shot just 28% in that game. The Salukis also have a big game on deck on “Bracket Buster Saturday” as they play in-state Illinois-Chicago.

The road team is 11-3-1 ATS in this series and that continues tonight. We expect Indiana State to continue playing well and get the out right win here. Take the generous points.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-18-09

RAS

#619 Pacific -1
#621 UC Davis +1
#626 Irvine +2

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-18-09

John Morrison System Play

Atlanta Hawks (B)

Remember to buy 2-3 points

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-18-09

Scott Rickenbach’s College Hoops Game #603 - 2* (Top Play) Drake Bulldogs (+) @ Northern Iowa @ 8:05 PM ET

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-18-09

IC: 4 unit play Take NC Wilmington +10.5 over Old Dominion

4 Unit Play. #526. Take NC Wilmington +10.5 over Old Dominion (Wednesday @ 7pm est). Great game yesterday as Vandy gets it done for us although the first half might have given you a coronary. For today's action, I nearly settled on Florida as they come back home off of back to back losses and will likely look for a blowout against the Tide. But, the Tide were imperssive against South Carolina at home only losing by 2 so I laid off. Instead, let's look at a classic type of play we like to roll with and that is a home dog that is catching a butt load of points on revenge. Such is the case with the Seahawks today. We are 2-0 on the week and we will look to the Seahawks to get us to 3-0 and get a nice stranglehold on the winning week. The Seahawks are 6-21 SU. There is no doubt when you look at the SU record of this team they are abysmal. But, this team at home does have the capacity to play well. Remember, this is the same team that beat a top VCU team by 9, lost to James Madison by 6 at home who is a top 125 team, lost to Hofstra by 2 at home who is a top 140 team and lost to Richmond at home by 7 who is also a top 125 team. Yes, these two met earlier this year and NC Wilmington got drilled by a score of 57-87. But, what if I told you they got drilled by a similar margin against VCU on the road earlier this year by a score of 59-88 only to come back home and defeat the same team 81-72. The difference between NC Wilmington at home and on the road is that they can shoot at the friendly confines of their gym as compared to the on the road they can't shoot worth a lick as it is obvious. Look for NC Wilmington, who comes off a tight loss to Georgia State on the road by just 3, as they return home, with revenge, in a similar game as the VCU contest (who is a top 100 team as compared to ODU who is a top 125 team), who has covered their last 6 of 7, and their last 3 at home to be very game for this contest.
Good Luck,
Indian Cowboy.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-18-09

BeatYourBookie



NCAA Basketball


100* Play James Madison (+2.5) over Hofstra (NCAA)
(Colonial Athletic Game of the Year)

James Madison is 12-3 ATS over the last 15 games
James Madison is 8-1 ATS in road games this season
James Madison is 11-4 ATS vs. conference opponents this season
James Madison is 8-2 ATS coming off an OVER the total



100* Play Mississippi (+5) over Tennessee (NCAA)

Mississippi is 11-2 ATS when playing on a Wednesday the last 2 seasons
Mississippi is 15-5 ATS in home games when the total is between 140 and 149.5
Mississippi is 8-2 ATS vs. conference opponents this season



Bonus Hoops & Hockey Plays

30* Play Minnesota (+9.5) over Miami (NBA)

Miami is 0-7 ATS coming off an upset win as a road underdog
Miami is 9-22 ATS when playing as a home favorite the last 2 seasons
Miami is 7-19 ATS after having won 2 of the last 3 games


30* Play Detroit (-315) over Nashville (NHL)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-18-09

fairway jay


Rider +4.5 (-110) / 3 units


fairway jay
Wyoming +7.0 (-110) / 5 units

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-18-09

Jack Clayton Guaranteed Selections
Date: Wednesday, February 18, 2009
$25.00 Guaranteed: Jack Clayton easily cashed his only total last night, as the Bucks/Pistons sailed under. His top play for Wednesday is with an NBA total, another game that oddsmakers simply missed the boat on. Go inside the numbers, and collect with this 5-Star NBA "Total" Crusher! 2/17/2009

5* Nets/Mavericks over the total (513/514): There are plenty of offensive weapons on both sides, and neither team plays a lick of defense. New Jersey averages 98 ppg but allows 100 ppg. The Mavs average 100 ppg, but allow 99 ppg. Antoine Wright scored 23 points, his best scoring game in nearly three months, Howard also had 23 points, and the Mavericks won 118-100 over Sacramento last week to make the Kings the first NBA team guaranteed to have a losing season. Surprised this total wasn't above 200. Dallas I on a 3-2 run over the total, while the Nets just allowed 108 to San Antonio. Look for plenty of points, play the Nets/Mavericks over the total.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-18-09

RON RAYMOND'S 5* NHL O/U BEST BET + 2 BONUS PICKS!

Pick # 1 St Louis Blues (125)



Pick # 2 Montreal Canadiens / Washington Capitals Over 6 -120




Pick # 3 Anaheim Ducks (-150)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-18-09

MATT FARRGO

7* ACC SUPREME ANNIHILATOR **6-3 RUN**

Matchup: VIRGINIA TECH at VIRGINIA
PICK: VIRGINIA TECH +1.5

Virginia is coming off its best ACC wins of the year as it knocked off Clemson in overtime on Sunday. I was on the Cavaliers for that one but I am now heading the opposite way this time around as playing with that much energy for a second game in four days will be next to impossible. That big win improved Virginia to just 2-8 in the conference and things remain tough with a visit from rival Virginia Tech. The Cavaliers want nothing more than to avoid a season sweep against the Hokies and while that will be an angle for Virginia, the Hokies swept the season series last season. And that was against a much better Virginia team. While the Cavaliers are coming off a big win, Virginia Tech is coming off a disappointing loss as it went down by 10 points in Maryland on Saturday. It was just the fourth loss in the last 15 games for the Hokies and it dropped them into a tie for 4th place in the ACC. They will no doubt be up for this rivalry game but the fact that Virginia is coming off that win over Clemson, it will surely not be looking past this one. The last five ACC games for the Hokies are against Florida St. twice, Clemson, Duke and North Carolina. Therefore this is the last “winnable” game on the schedule so it is a must at this point. Virginia Tech enters this game 16-8 on the season and I believe this record could be a lot better even. The Hokies lost by 25 points at Duke and was the only real bad game of the season. They have registered victories on the road against Miami and Wake Forest in back-to-back games and winning in those venues is no small feat. The losses have been tough to take in some cases. Virginia Tech’s first four losses this season were by a total of eight points and two against Xavier and Wisconsin came with less than one second on the clock. Two other losses against Clemson and Boston College came by five points combined meaning they have lost six games by an average of 2.2 ppg. That is just some really bad luck and the majority of the defeats have come against some excellent competition in some tough places. Virginia is not an excellent team and John Paul Jones Arena is not a tough spot for visitors this season with Virginia going just 7-6 there on the season. Five of those came against VMI, Radford, Longwood, Hampton and Brown who are ranked 183rd, 177th, 291st, 279th and 304th. One of those losses came against Liberty, ranked 173rd. Proving that the Hokies are strewn with talent, Virginia Tech is one of only two Division I schools to have three different players record 30-point games this season against Division I opponents. That is pretty solid. The Hokies will be without forward Jeff Allen for this game as he is serving a one-game suspension stemming from the game against Maryland. Normally that would be a problem and while his production will no doubt be missed, it is not as bad playing against Virginia who is far from a dominant big team. Looking at the overall number, the Hokies have a huge edge in efficiency as well as the ever important assist/turnover ratio category. Virginia Tech has held the opposition to under 40 percent from the floor in nine of the 23 games this season and opponents have shot better than 45 percent from the field just six times this season. The Hokies fall into a very solid situation as well. Play on road teams as a favorite or pick that are averaging between 67 and 74 ppg going up against a team allowing between 67 and 74 , after a combined score of 155 points or more. This situation is 139-83 ATS (62.6 percent) since 1997 with the average point differential being +6.0 ppg. The percentage may not seem exciting however based on 222 games, it is extremely powerful, picking up close to 50 units in the process. 7* Virginia Tech Hokies

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-18-09

Paul Bovi

LA Lakers at Golden State
Play: Over 228.5

Not too long ago these two hooked up in what was to be a 114 106 Lakers victory. It's been only 6 weeks since that contest, but much has changed which will only serve to weaken defenses that were already suspect, much more so in the case of the Warriors who lack presence on the inside. Biedrins is out for GS who averages only 13 but provides shot blocking prowess (he had 3 in that game) as is Andrew Bynum for LA who himself had a pair of rejections in that Laker win. Stephen Jackson sat out for the Warriors in that one as did Monta Ellis, the latter who is 11 games removed from an ankle injury that forced him to miss the early part of the season. LA beat the Hawks last night in a yawner but nobody was put out to pasture. Lamar Odom led with 34 minutes. Adam Morrison gets his first field goal tonight and the Lakers and Warriors play out a wild one that hits the 240 mark.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-18-09

NSA's Selection
CBB 20* Notre Dame +9.5
CBB 10* Rhode Island -1
CBB 10* Florida St -2
CBB 10* Illinois -9.5
CBB 10* Providence +13
NBA 10* Philadelphia +1.5