Thursday 10/27/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

PICKWISE KEENELAND PICKS

There is plenty of great horse racing across America on Thursday, including at Keeneland race track. We have been on fire with our picks for a long time now and are up +279.64 units with our race selections to our recommended stakes dating back to August 5, 2021. Let’s keep it rolling!
Here are our best bets for today’s action at Keeneland race track.
3:40 pm Keeneland (Race 6) – Stellar Lily 10/1 (1-star play)

Race 6 at Keeneland is a $100,000 Maiden Special Weight for two-year-old fillies over an extended five furlongs on the dirt in which Wesley Ward’s Rarify is likely to be tough to beat, but I like Stellar Lily in stall 5 — who showed up well when finishing fourth on debut at Churchill Downs last month. She was well fancied and showed good speed to race prominently for most of the way before tiring late on a six-furlong trip so with that run under her belt she can go close here.
4:12 pm Keeneland (Race 7) – Happy Boy Rocket 9/2 (1-star play)

A field of 10 goes to post for this Claiming contest for three-year-olds and upward who have never won two races and it can pay to side with Happy Boy Rocket who has yet to show his full potential and drops into this grade for the first time. William Mott’s son of Runhappy finished third in a stakes contest at Oaklawn Park six months ago but has since lost his way in Allowance and Allowance Optional Claiming company, so he will welcome this much easier task and can resume winning ways.
4:44 pm Keeneland (Race 8) – Elle Est Forte 7/2 (2-star play)

Ian Wilkes’ Elle Est Forte has been knocking on the door in recent outings with three second place finishes and it’s only a matter of time before this daughter of Flintshire gets her head in front again and now can be that time in the penultimate event at Keeneland. This filly has shown plenty of ability thus far, so if jockey Corey Lanerie can get her out and into a good position behind the leaders from stall 1 then she will take plenty of beating especially with this drop back to a mile and an eighth expected to suit.
5:16 pm Keeneland (Race 9) – Mataro 8/1 (1-star play)

The finale at Keeneland is an open looking $47,000 Maiden Claimer for two-year-olds over six furlongs on the dirt in which a case can be made for many but none more so than Mataro, who has been running well in Maiden Special Weights and can go close in this. If he can run to the level of his first two starts at Churchill Downs where he finished second and fourth, respectively, behind some nice types then there’s no doubt he will be in the shake up at good odds.
Exotic

Late Pick 4

Race 6: 3, 5, 9
Race 7: 4, 6, 9
Race 8: 1, 11
Race 9: 2, 9
$0.50 Late Pick 4, cost $18

[ConleyPicks]

Racing Dudes Rockets Picks

Let’s get it rolling with another week of racing! For the free pick 4, we will head to Belmont at the Big A for the Late Pick 4 on the card. We will also have full card selections for Keeneland for the paid Rockets, so be sure to check those out. Let’s GO!
Below is our free late Pick 4 for Belmont at the Big A:


Belmont at the Big A October 27, 2022
Race 6: Maiden Special Weight
#10 Dont Lose Cruz was a head away from victory last time out at this class level and over this track. That was his debut race, which means he should move forward off of that effort. #4 Inspector was fourth behind our top choice last time out, which was also his debut race.

Race 7: Allowance Optional Claiming
#6 Turn of Events

was a nose away from victory at this class level last time out at Kentucky Downs. Three starts back he was a winner at Monmouth Park against allowance runners.

#11 Thin White Duke

drops back down to the allowance ranks for this one after a poor effort against stakes company over this track last time out.

Race 8: Starter Allowance
#1 Know It All Audrey was a half length away from defeating tougher runners last time out over this track. She looks to be the one to beat in this spot today. #5 Mia Bea Star was fourth behind our top choice last time out over this track. It will be hard for her to turn the tables today.

Race 9: Maiden Special Weight
#6 Provision has run second in three straight starts on this circuit so far and looks to be improving with each start. Today could be the day he breaks through with a victory. #7 Barry the Builder has run behind our top choice in his last two starts and is another horse who looks to be improving with more racing under his belt.

THE TICKET


$.50 Pick 4 (Races 6-9) 4,10 / 1,4,6,11 / 1,5 / 5,6,7,10 – $32

Our product is also on the Handicapping Products Page! To purchase, click one of the links below to go to the products page. Our product includes full card plays, featuring race-by-race analysis, our top four picks for each race, and full-card multi-race wagers. Check it out below:

[ConleyPicks]

Belmont at the Big A Horses in Focus for Thursday, October 27

Posted on October 26, 2022 by David Aragona
RACE 1: QUARREL (#6)
I’m not trying to beat likely favorite Quarrel (#6) as she switches to the surface that she was intended to debut over. This filly had trained forwardly into that first start and the connections probably kept her in the race on dirt for that reason. She delivered a strong performance, but just couldn’t quite stay with the winner late after challenging that one at the quarter pole. She’s bred to move up on turf as a daughter of Speightstown out of the stakes-placed mare Promotional. She’s also a half-sister to Daunt, who races for these same connections and has won twice going longer on turf. Some may be reticent to take a short price on this barn, but they appear to have a good one here. I would primarily want to use first time starters along with her. Galileo’s Jewel (#10) seems worth including as she makes her debut for Tony Dutrow, who has had some success with those types this year. This daughter of Kingman was an RNA for $714k when she was offered at auction overseas. She hails from a strong female family, as the dam is a half-sister to European Group 1 winners Alpha Centauri, Alpine Star, and Discoveries. I would also use Geyser Road (#2), who goes out for the always dangerous Jorge Abreu barn. She’s a half-sister to two turf winners including turf sprint specialist U Should B Dancing.
RACE 7: NOBLE EMOTION (#1)
Thin White Duke (#11) has to be considered the horse to beat off his performances two and three back at Saratoga. He signaled his improvement with that close third-place finish behind Golden Pal at odds of 30-1 in the G3 Troy. Yet he then validated that form next time when winning a slightly softer Lucky Coin Stakes. He got great rides and trips on both occasions, but things didn’t work out as well last time in the Belmont Turf Sprint. He was always too far back over a yielding course where the winner dominated up front. He’s clearly better than that and can rebound here if any pace develops. Ranger Fox (#4) could lead this field early, but I’m just not quite convinced he’s good enough to win at this level after he faded with a good setup last time. I’m instead hoping that Noble Emotion (#1) sits the right trip from his inside post position. He rebounded from a disappointing effort at Saratoga in July to win a tight photo at this level a month later. However, he was unable to replicate that form at Woodbine last time when defeated by a rival he had beaten in his prior start. That said, he didn’t get the best trip that day as he was out of position early before launching a mild premature bid that quickly flattened out. I think he’ll be more aggressively handled from the rail here as he’s reunited with Jose Ortiz. The other horse that I would use is Maxwell Esquire (#3). He started off his 5-year-old season the right way, winning at this level. Things have gone awry since then, but he hasn’t really had a fair chance in either start since getting claimed by Mike Maker. He was going too far with a wide trip two back, and last time couldn’t close in a speed-dominated race. He may fare better here if he gets some pace up front.
RACE 9: MR. MARLIN (#12)
Likely favorite Provision (#6) has settled for second in all three career starts, the last two at short prices. He was simply beaten by a better rival two back, and last time he didn’t have the easiest trip, forced to race 3-wide around both turns, but still fought on gamely in the stretch to get up for second. I just haven’t seen much progression from him since his encouraging debut, so it feels like others might have more upside. That said, his prior form makes him a strong contender and he’s drawn a better post position this time. I could also use Barry the Builder (#7) from that same race he exits, as he may have been too aggressively handled early before fading late. Among those with turf form, I’d rather go to the stretch-out Itsallcomintogetha (#8). He was arguably best on debut when he was badly fouled at the start, sandwiched between rivals in a chain reaction caused by the eventual runner-up. He was understandably favored next time out but failed to take a step forward, just staying on at one pace for fourth while working out a better trip. Yet perhaps going longer will suit him, since a few of his siblings did run well over route distances on the turf. Phil Serpe is just 4 for 49 (8%, $1.28 ROI) going from sprints to routes on turf over 5 years, but this colt does have some upside. My top pick is first time turfer Mr. Marlin (#12). He showed some ability on debut when closing well for third after racing greenly through the early stages of that race. He appeared to react badly to kickback, only passing horses when steered into the clear. He subsequently failed to improve in two more starts, though he was wide last time against a potential rail bias. The fourth-place finisher from that race returned to win with an improved speed figure, so I think he ran better than it appears. Paynter is an underrated turf sire, as his progeny win 15% of their turf route starts. The dam never tried turf, but she has produced two foals to win on this surface. I think he has a chance to improve and he figures to be a fair price.

[ConleyPicks]

DAILY SELECTIONS FOR OCTOBER 27 - KRISTPICKS
RACE 1: 10 - GALILEO'S JEWEL 8-1
2 - GEYSER ROAD 10-1
6 - QUARREL 3-1
RACE 2: 5 - EVEN THUNDER 10-1
4 - FIRST DEPUTY 9-2
1 - SCILLY CAY 2-5
RACE 3: 4 - BOX OF JOE 7-2
6 - BRUNATE 5-2
7 - READY TO MARCH 4-1
RACE 4: 4 - TAP THE FAITH 9-2 - BEST BET
3 - ITS COLD IN DEHERE 4-1
1 - SWEET WILLEMINA 9-2
RACE 5: 2 - CALL ME HARRY 5-1
3 - WOOTTON ASSET 3-1
5 - SHADOW SPHINX 6-1
RACE 6: 8 - MARIACHI 10-1 - LONGSHOT
2 - BINGOOD TO KNOWYA 6-1
1 - LIFETIME OF CHANCE 8-1
RACE 7: 7 - BATTLE STATION 12-1
6 - TURN OF EVENTS 9-2
8 - FAUCI 6-1
RACE 8:4 - I'M NERVOUS NOW 8-1
3 - CHAYSENBRYN 9-2
2 - RACING COLORS 8-1
RACE 9: 10 - ROYAL FOX HILLS 8-1
5 - AULA 10-1
6 - PROVISION 5-2

[ConleyPicks]

Ribbit Racing Belmont At The Big A

R1: 6-1-14$
R2: 6$-1-5
R3: 2-4-5
R4: 6-1-5
R5: 3-14-5
R6: 2-1-8$
R7: 6-8-16
R8: 3-1-2
R9: 1-6-7

[ConleyPicks]

Ribbit Racing Keeneland

R1: 1-2-4
R2: 6-5-4
R3: 4-5-6
R4: 3*-2-4
R5: 8-11-10
R6: 9-7-3$
R7: 2-1-4$
R8: 1-8$-5
R9: 6-10-7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

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23. LV Private CEO Club NHL – Bruins -1.5
24. Michigan Sports NHL – Canucks +110
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