Friday 11/4/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - BC/Santa Anita - 11/4/22

November 4, 2022

“What You Need to Know” – Breeders’ Cup Keeneland/Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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BREEDERS’ CUP FRIDAY - KEENELAND

RACE 6: BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF SPRINT-G1. Post: 3:00 ET Grade: A-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 12-The Platinum Queen
Backups/savers: 5-Mischief Magic; 2-Love Reigns

Forecast: The Platinum Queen defeated many of the best older sprinters in the Prix de l’Abbaye-G1 on Arc day, and although she was afforded an enormous weight break due to the age discrepancy the achievement must be considered extraordinary. She also finished an excellent second to BC Turf Sprint contender Highfield Princess in the Nunthorpe S.-G1 at York in August in a remarkable performance. Against her own age group today, the Irish-bred filly would appear to have an enormous edge, her extreme outside draw, notwithstanding. For protection, we’ll toss in Mischief Magic and Love Reigns as backups. The former, a respectable fourth in the Middle Park S.-G1 last month, goes for the powerful Godolphin/Appleby/Buick team and her Timeform ratings, while not at the level of The Platinum Queen, are legitimately strong for a filly that can turn it on late. 'Reigns is two-for-two in the States with a prior win over the Keeneland grass and was a commendable fourth at Royal Ascot in her only defeat.


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RACE 7: BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES. Post: 3:40 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 8-Atomically; 10-Chocolate Gelato
Backups/savers: 7-Chop Chop

Forecast: Atomically was privately purchased by a sharp outfit following her highly impressive victory in the My Dear Girl Stakes at Gulfstream Park last month, and while she was only beating state-bred competition the daughter of Girvin did so despite being forced wide most of the way yet earning a speed figure that makes her a major contender in this championship race for juvenile fillies. Now in the Todd Pletcher barn, she has every right to produce another forward move in a race that should present fast enough fractions to compliment her late running style. She is 12-1 on the morning line but we suspect she’ll go lower. Chocolate Gelato was professional if not brilliant in her Frizette S.-G1 victory over a wet track that she may not have cared for. Her previous win against maidens at Saratoga on fast ground was arguably more impressive, and if she repeats that race today, the daughter of Practical Joke will be hard to beat. As a backup, we’ll include Chop Chop, somewhat unlucky when going down by a nose in the Alcibiades S.-G1 over this track and distance last time out. She is a progressive sort that will be doing her best work from the quarter pole home.


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RACE 8: BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES TURF. Post: 4:20 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 12-Midnight Mile; 10-Mediate
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: The North American contingent appears somewhat ordinary, so let’s sink or swim with a pair of European invaders while making the main gamble the unbeaten British invader Midnight Mile, a thoroughly deserving winner of the Oh So Sharp S.-G3 at Newmarket last month. Both of her victories were accomplished at long odds, but her successes were quite legitimate and were accomplished from off the pace thanks to a relentless late kick that leads us to believe that she will be even better over a distance of ground. Listed at 10-1 on the morning line, the Richard Fahey-rained daughter of No Nay Never should find sufficient pace to compliment her style, so in a wide open affair she offers good value both in the win pool and in the various exotics. As for the 4-1 morning line favorite Mediate, she was beaten as the favorite in her last two outings overseas, the Moyglare Stud S.-G1 at The Curragh and the Cheveley Park S.-G1 at Newmarket, but to her credit ran a winning race in both. She was simply outfooted by two extremely talented fillies, Tahiyra, and Lezoo, and it must be said that either of those two would have been heavily favored in this race had they been afforded the opportunity. This Aidan O’Brien-trained filly was worn down close home in both races, so we’re not quite convinced she will enjoy today’s extra distance and the two turn trip, but on pure form she’s plenty good enough as a multiple Group-2 winner that includes success in the Albany S. at Royal Ascot. Furthermore, her Timeform ratings are quite strong, so while she may have distance limitations, we’ll regard her as a “must use” in our rolling exotics.


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RACE 9: BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE. Post: 5:00 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Cave Creek
Backups/Savers: 6-Blazing Sevens

Forecast: Cave Creek is listed as the 4/5 favorite in this year’s edition of the BC Juvenile, and on paper the undefeated son of Arrogate looks every bit of it. Fast on numbers, proven around two turns, and drawn comfortably inside, the Bob Baffert-trained colt projects as the controlling speed and once is established in that role (probably before the clubhouse turn) he should dominate gate to wire. For exacta purposes and/or perhaps as a backup, Champagne S.-G1 winner Blazing Sevens deserves consideration. The Chad Brown-trained son of Good Magic likes to lag and then blast home and should have every chance to pick up the pieces - and may even pull off an upset - if Cave Creek, though unlikely, goes too fast during the early stages.


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RACE 10: BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF. Post: 5:40 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Victoria Road; 4-Silver Knott
Backups/savers: 2-Packs a Wahlop

Forecast: Simply put, the European contingent looks better the North American entrants (as usual) in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, with Victoria Road and Silver Knott bringing with them visually pleasing performances and Timeform Ratings that are good enough to win. ‘Road is progressing with each outing and is better than his morning line of 8-1 would indicate. After taking four races to break his maiden, the son of Saxon Warrior was sharp winning a listed stakes at Deauville with a stalking trip and then rallied from far back to be up in time in the Prix de Conde-G3 over nine furlongs at Chantilly. He shortens back to a mile today, but from his cozy rail draw the Aidan O’Brien-trained colt should inherit an ideal ground-saving trip and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. Silver Knott was quite brave in victory in the Autumn S.-G3 at Newmarket last month and if that weren’t enough the Godolphin colt hails from the extraordinary Charles Appleby barn and will be ridden by William Buick, top class connections, to be sure. The best of the North American team would appear to be Packs a Wahlop, who will be seeking his fourth straight score after breaking his maiden sprinting and then stretching out to take back-to-back graded events over a mile, the most recent at Santa Anita in the Zuma Beach S.-G3 at Santa Anita last month. He has trained quite well in the interim, so let’s anticipate that this son of Creative Cause will make some serious noise in the final furlong and maybe even tag the speed close home.


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FRIDAY – SANTA ANITA

RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Bye Bye Buggsy; 1-Cheekiest
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Bye Bye Buggsy drops into a seller in her third career start, adds blinkers, and shows the two-sprints-and-a-stretch out angle that should make her the controlling speed in this mile turf affair for juveniles. If she handles the grass, she should be hard to catch. Cheekiest never got untracked when outrun in a much tougher maiden special weight turf sprint over the local lawn last month but from the rail she seems certain to be much more competitive against this group. Her pedigree suggests this one mile trip should be much more to her liking. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics.


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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): King Zag 1-Start Them Up
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: King Zag has enough early speed to use his rail draw to good advantage in this maiden claiming main track sprint for juveniles, and if he can clear the field during the opening stages he might get brave and never look back. Start Them Up will be dangerous from off the pace with a repeat of his good runner-up effort at Los Alamitos last time out. We’ll try to get by using just these two in a race that really doesn’t offer much to work with.


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RACE 3: Post: 1:31 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Magic Game; 1-Good Boo Jo
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Magic Game has the route-to-sprint angle we like over a turf course that often favors the late-runners in sprints, so with patient handling the daughter of Flintshire may be able to produce a winning late kick in the below average state-bred grass dash for older fillies and mares. Good Boo Joo has a race two back that charts well with these, and if she moves up while adding blinkers (again) the Jeff Mullins-trained filly should be in the thick of it late.


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RACE 4: Post: 2:12 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Fort Bragg; 5-Reincarnate
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: The winner almost certainly will be one of the two Bob Baffert entrants. Fort Bragg crossed the wire first but was quickly disqualified for causing blatant interference on at least two occasions during the running of the race, so the stewards probably should have thrown the book at him. With blinkers being added today, we’re expecting the son of Tapit to behave himself and perform up to his potential in this middle distance main track maiden affair for juveniles. His stable mate, Reincarnate, has credentials as well, having finished second in both of his outings, though last time out at odds of 4/5 he really didn’t have an excuse while failing to capitalize on a perfect staling trip while settling for second. This will be his first try on dirt, so perhaps on this surface he will step forward. We’ll prefer Fort Bragg on top but include both in rolling exotic play in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.


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RACE 5: Post: 2:52 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Barristan the Bold; 10-Grit and Curiosity; 8-King of Speed
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: We’ll spread this grass grab bag for older horses while giving slight top billing on top to Barristan The Bold. Overmatched in graded stakes company in his last pair, the English-bred gelding plummets to the $25,000 claiming level and may have issues, but if he has one good one left he should be able to tag the speed. He’s a three time winner over the Santa Anita grass, and while the barn has had a slow meet this veteran may be able to buck the trend. Grit and Curiosity, second at this level over this course and distance last month, won’t need much more to beat this group. He’s winless in five starts over the local lawn but he has hit the board four times and should be heard from in the final furlong. King of Speed does most of his running at Los Alamitos, but he does have grass form that charts reasonably well with these. The class drop combined with the removal of blinkers could make a winning difference, so at 8-1 on the morning line he’s worth tossing in.



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RACE 6: Post: 3:22 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 10-Cold City; 4-Cross Examine
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Cold City improved to finish second at this level over this track and distance last time out, and a repeat performance against this soft bottom rung maiden claiming field should be good enough to earn him a diploma. The big concern is that he was claimed for $50,000 two runs back and now competes for $20,000 so he’s clearly not well-liked by the barn. Cross Examine has no early speed but has shown he can finish a little bit and probably is the one to fear most from off the pace. At 6-1 on the morning line, he is worth including somewhere on our ticket.


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RACE 7: Post: 3:52 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Touch of Zen; 2-Orth; 7-Donner Lake
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Touch of Zen is largely unexposed with just three career starts and shows a pattern that appears to be improving, so the Phil D’Amato-trained gelding should be ready to graduate from the maiden ranks. Drawn nicely inside, the son of Grazen overcame some self-caused trouble to finish a solid third in a similar state-bred affair over this course and distance last time out and with clear sailing today can be along in time. Orth is an 11-race maiden and not one to trust, but this will be his first try around two turns, so perhaps this is what he's always wanted to do. Based strictly on pedigree, the son of Jeranimo has a right to improve at the trip, and after a recent sharp runner-up try sprinting over the local lawn we’ll make him a legitimate contender. Donner Lake had a trouble-filled trip when second in the same race as our top pick and projects to be prominent throughout and have every chance.


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RACE 8: Post: 4:22 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Cause She’s a Lady; 3-Grandiosely
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Cause She’s a Lady takes a significant drop in class in an attempt to locate her proper level and in this $16,000 restricted (nw-2) claimer the Doug O’Neill-trained daughter of Creative Cause may have found her friends. She has won over this main track in the past and projects to enjoy a nice stalking trip outside the other speed type and then be able to go on with it when ready. Grandiosely is lightly raced (just three starts) and got a confidence-building win at Los Alamitos last time out when beating bottom-rung maiden claimers with career top speed figure. If she can duplicate that performance on the big track, the John Sadler-trained daughter of City Zip should be competitive right back.


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RACE 9: Post: 4:52 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): Shocking Grey
Backups/savers: 8-Don’t Ju Forget

Forecast: Shocking Grey displayed a bit of promise when rallying to be second in her debut last month in a similar state-bred turf sprint for fillies and mares and today gets an extra half furlong to work with for a barn that has strong stats (21%) with the second-time starter angle. We’ll put her on top but also include on a backup ticket Don’t Ju Forget, a six-race maiden who was third race in the same race as Shocking Grey exits and also is likely to enjoy today’s extended sprint distance.


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RACE 10: Post: 5:22 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Midnight Jostar
Backups/savers: 7-Go On

Forecast: Midnight Jostar hasn’t always been one to trust (he’s 3-for-23 and winless in four starts over the Santa Anita turf) but in this softer-than-par entry level allowance turf miler the Phil D’Amato-trained gelding looks well-spotted for a breakthrough performance. He’s actually quite strong in the speed figure department but his lack of tactical speed always makes his task more difficult than it should be. He’s run well for jockey Ryan Curatolo in the past, so with good racing luck he should be capable of producing a winning late kick. If you prefer some protection, toss in Go On as a backup or a saver. The Doug O’Neill-trained colt returned from Dubai to finish a willing third in a downhill turf dash last month, and though he’s always been a bit too one-paced for our liking he did manage to finish fourth in the much tougher San Antonio S.-G2 around two turns last December, so the stretch out in trip shouldn’t be a problem.

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Al Cimaglia: Hoosier Park Grand Circuit Analysis

November 4, 2022 | By Al Cimaglia

Hoosier Park has a solid 14-race card set to go to begin the weekend. The main events roll in races 5, 7, 9 and 11 as Grand Circuit action returns to the Anderson oval and those contests are handicapped below.

Comments and selections are based on a fast track.

Race 5-USS Indianapolis Memorial Pace-Purse $100,000

7-Patsville (2-1)-This 3-year-old has raced well all year (16-5-5-3) and comes into this outing in razor sharp form. Has the speed to be forwardly placed and De Long has options. Can win without getting on the engine and the short field won't hurt chances to make it 3 straight.
3-JK's Rollin Baby (6-1)-Did the heavy lifting last week blasting out from post 8 and was caught down the stretch by the one above. Should have a less taxing journey with this post draw. Could use one big move down the lane to roll by and get some revenge on #7.
1-Sea Silk (9/5)-Here is the morning line choice and is a fine filly banking over $426K this year. But willing to fade her in this situation. She is better suited for a smaller oval and will look for a home court advantage, with the 2 above, down the long stretch.

Race 7-Crossroads of America-Trot-Purse $110,000

1-Cash Infusion (5/2)-Has shown considerable improvement since joinng the Erv Miller barn 2 starts back. Was only a head short of making it 2 straight in the only HoP starts. Drew off by 5 lengths to set a lifetime mark and will look for another big try tonight.
7-M-M's Dream (2-1)-This filly gets a new set of hands in David Miller and has won 11 of 12 in 2022. The only loss came to the likes of Fashion Schooner and Misswalner Fashion, so it's odd for the driver change from Sam Widger. Regardless this filly should be rolling down the lane but may have met her match this evening.
2-Bluebird Dove (9/2)-Team Wrenn pupil is no slouch winning 8 of 17 and 2 straight. Should be forwardly placed and is a must use in gimmicks.

Race 9-The Carl Erksine Trot-Purse $200,000

4-King Of The North (8/5)-Mark MacDonald won the BC Elim with his drive and then followed that effort with a dominate performance in the Final. If there aren't any issues with the Hoosier surface, King should cap off his Indiana debut with a trip to the winner's circle.
2-Branded By Lindy (9/2)-First time Lasix is not a usual play of mine but this is the horse with the best chance to beat the chalk if dialed on high and 100%. There is some risk that won't be true but should offer a fair price to use underneath.
3-Ponda Adventure (5/2)-Winner of 12 in 15 starts this year and 18 of 23 lifetime deserves respect but this will be a big test. Local favorite will be bet, and not sure winning is a real possibility if the two above fire.

Race 11-The Monument Circle Pace-Purse $200,000

9-Bythemissal (6/5)-This is the Hoosier Park debut for this Burke pupil, and he says Missal is the best 3-year-old pacer he has trained. Disappointed as the even money chalk in the BC Final but can excuse that performance. It was a cavalry charge into the 1st turn including longshots of 86-1 and 99-1. Chris Page then was stuck following dull cover and rallied late for a 3rd place check. Not one of the best drives for Page and should be out and rolling early here. Can win, but not loving this play at less than even money.
7-Yourwishisgranted (12-1)-Since the new connections took over 2 starts back this 3-year-old has 2 big wins and has banked $45,000 all on this oval. This will be a challenge but gets a post edge over some tough customers and should race near the top of the stack. Best to respect chances to add some juice to gimmicks and if #9 is off his game it could be picture time again.
10-Ponda Warrior (9/2)-This Indy bred son of Rockin Image came up with a big try last week in the BC Final. Was used hard off the gate from the 8-hole and faded. The 2nd tier post draw will probably prevent a win, only #2 has some gate speed so getting a good early seat could be a challenge. Hochstetler trainee always tries hard and could hit the bottom of the ticket.

Best Bet=Race 9-King Of The North
Best Longshot=Race 11-Yourwishisgranted

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Charles Town - Race #6
Picks Notes
#6 Jack's Lily She's a good fit here after a couple really nice efforts since adding Lasix for the new barn, and she's a major threat right back here with another good tracking trip in the wings.
#3 Karpathian Dream She was no real match when jumping up to this level last out, but she's another who should land a pretty decent spying trip, and she's capable of something a little better than she showed last out.
#2 Ballymena She graduated last out going short in that 16th career start, but I don't think she's overmatched in here if she's able to bring one of her better efforts. Forward player can hang around.
Race Summary Jack's Lily turned a corner with the locals and Lasix, and I think she's going to be tough in here if she can just hold form from that last race. Would be thrilled at anything like the 7/2 ML, but we'll see....

Charles Town - Race #7
Picks Notes
#3 Lace Revolution She was pretty one-paced late in that first try at this level, but she typically finishes a bit better and might offer a decent price right back tonight.
#4 Determined Truth The local form has been tough since showing up from Colonial, but she's probably going to get bet a bit again here with form that fits and another race shape that suits her stepping style.
#6 Shoshoni Moon Nothing wrong with the local form, and he rolled a first-level group when making his second start here. Not totally sure she's backing race up fully in this one, but she's the right one if she does.
Race Summary Lace Revolution has shown a bit of positional pace in some past races, and that may serve her well to finish into the splits from a bit off the speed. Price should be right to try to get her in with one of the two more logical players.

Charles Town - Race #8
Picks Notes
#9 Rey o Reyes He's got some speed and an ability to settle a bit and finish if needed, and that should serve him well from this draw with a chance to either control the race from the start or prompt the other pace in a first-over run.
#8 Mr. Hostler This year's form is just dreadful, but he does have a bit of forward ability in a race with a bunch of finishers, so maybe he gets near the engine early and holds on for a piece at a big number.
#5 A Farewell Yodel That was a nice run off the layoff, and I like that he seemed to come back nicely from the freshening. Not sure I'd want to be here at too short a price to find out if he can repeat it, but he's a main player on form.
Race Summary Rey o Reyes should be involved from the start, and it seems like many of the potential threats want to come running from off the pace. Guessing he gets first jump turning for home and holds firm.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#9 LUMINIST (5-2) Can upstage series of in-the-money finishes on return to claiming ranks.
#4 COMMANDER BUZZKILL (6-1) Worked 11 times on Belmont lawn, shows up here for U.S. debut.
#6 SELF ASSURED (5-1) Adapted well to rating tactics, ran second on soft turf as closers dominated.
Race Summary LUMINIST rallied for minor awards in her last seven starts, the last two in MSW company. She gets ample pace flow and can upstage a near miss at this distance when she was rank and in tight early. Bet to win and place.

Laurel Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#8 FREE SQUARE (6-1) Lacked stretch kick as beaten fave, projects ideal trip at inflated price.
#3 KNOWHOWIKNOW (5-2) First or second in 8 of 13 at Laurel, versatility comes in handy in this spot.
#9 GOLDEN AVIATOR (4-1) Earned top speed figure in romp on ‘off’ track at Delaware Park.
Race Summary FREE SQUARE, taken to rate on the class drop at 5-1/2F, ranged up 4-wide but flattened out in the stretch. He figures to employ the same tactics in a speed-laden field and is worth a price shot in his second start at this level. Play an 8-ALL exacta.

Laurel Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#7 B WEST (4-1) Rushed up to prompt speedball, flattened out in lane in ‘key’ sprint race.
#11 ENERGY EFFICIENT (9-2) Loomed serious threat’ to drifting winner with rail move, draws post 11.
#1 SHACKINTHEBOX (6-1) Compromised by bumpy start, got up to finish third in shorter sprint.
Race Summary B WEST prompted the speedy favorite in a well-bet debut, but gave way in the stretch. A major upgrade is due after race winner Post Time ran away from an allowance favorite to repeat in his next start and Prince of Jericho came back with a maiden-breaking romp from post 12. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rocket Picks ��: Aqueduct, Santa Anita Park, and Keeneland – Breeders’ Cup Friday for November 4, 2022
By: Aaron Halterman

It’s time for another great Friday at the Breeders’ Cup and we are pumped! For the free pick 4, we will head to Aqueduct for the Late Pick 4 on the card. We will also have full card selections for Keeneland – Breeders’ Cup Friday and Santa Anita Park for the paid Rockets, so be sure to check those out. Let’s GO!

Below is our free late Pick 4 for Aqueduct:

Aqueduct November 4, 2022

Race 7: Maiden Special Weight

#12 Sweetlousgotaces drops back to the maiden special weight ranks today, which is where she nearly won in her debut race at Saratoga. #2 Gustiamo gets back to the turf for this race, which is easily her best surface.

Race 8: Allowance
freestar

#4 La Victoria gets back to the dirt for this race today after a poor effort last time out over the turf. #5 Know It All Audrey goes for two in a row after a solid victory against starter allowance runners last time out over this track.

Race 9: Turnback the Alarm Handicap (G3)

#7 Battle Bling looks for her third straight victory today after back to back wins against stakes runners. She looks ready to try graded stakes horses. #3 First to Act gets some class relief today after running second to Nest last time out.

Race 10: Maiden Special Weight

#8 Showemyourheels moves back to the turf today, which is where she nearly won in her debut effort at Saratoga. #1 Bomb Squad debuts in a spot that looks winnable for a first time starter.

THE TICKET

$.50 Pick 4 (Races 7-10) 2,4,5,12 / 1,4,5 / 3,7 / 1,2,7,8 – $48

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Nahill’s Santa Anita opinions for Friday, Nov. 4

NOTE: This might be the worst card of the meet so thread lightly. All the top jockeys are out of town at Breeders’ Cup so you are going to see some combinations that don’t make sense.

FIRST RACE: 3-6-1-2

SECOND RACE: 5-4-3-7

THIRD RACE: 1-4-6-7

FOURTH RACE: 5-2-3-7

FIFTH RACE: 2-1-10-9

SIXTH RACE: 10-11-4-5

SEVENTH RACE: 7-1-2-6

EIGHTH RACE: 9-3-7-6 (BEST BET)

NINTH RACE: 5-2-8-7

10TH RACE: 2-3-7-1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Nahill’s Keeneland Race Course opinions for Friday, Nov. 4 (Breeders’ Cup Day 1)

FIRST RACE: 8-9-6-4-5

SECOND RACE: 6-11-10-8-2

THIRD RACE: 6-11-3-1-7

FOURTH RACE: 9-11-12-10-8 (best bet)

If You don’t think Bob Baffert doesn’t want to stick to the state of Kentucky, you are sadly mistaken. ARABIAN LION is training lights out of his maiden win and Baffert wants the money.

FIFTH RACE: 9-4-1-4-6-2

SIXTH RACE: (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint): 11-5-2-4-9

Baffert will a speedy grass horse. Who knew?

SEVENTH RACE (BC Juvenile Fillies): 3-14-7-10-8

AND NO TELL ME NOLIES hasn’t gotten any respect here in California (including me) but all she does is keep winning. This daughter of Arrogate can get the distance for trainer Peter Miller.

EIGHTH RACE (BC Juvenile Fillies Turf): 4-10-7-11-1

NINTH RACE: 1. No. 10 National Treasure, 2. No. 3 Cave Rock, 3. No.8 Lost Ark, 4. No. 4 Forte. LONG SHOT No. 6 Blazing Sevens.

Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher dominate a lot of 2-year-old racing this time of the year so that’s what I have in this superfecta. NATIONAL TREASURE ids the “other” Baffert as CAVE ROCK will be singled on a lot of tickets, but Treasure has beern teaining lights out after his last race and could be the “now” horse. LOST ARK had a nightmare trip in his last so draw a line throught it. BLAZING SEVENS is from the Chad Brown barn and gets that man Flavien Prat to ride.

10TH RACE: 8-4-2-6-11

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Belmont Park Hotlist - November 4

November 4, 2022

Today’s NY Hot List races to watch – Friday, November 4, 2022 at Aqueduct
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

2nd race [Alw 50000s, 6F] – (4) Blinding Light (C) was bet down from 7-1 to 5-1 and lost a head bob to a Hot List horse after having the lead in the stretch. (6) Digital Future was claimed two races back after a long layoff by Ray Handal and was third in a similar spot in his first start after the claim. (5) Necromancer earned a career best speed figure when he broke his maiden for a 40,000 tag. (1) Holey Matrimony was the horse that came back from a three year layoff to win a $16,000 claimer and was taken from that spot three weeks ago.

6th race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 6F] – (3) Highway Harmony (A) had the lead in the stretch in her first career start and finished second for Jorge Abreu at odds of 2.90-1. (8) Lady Quinn was claimed for $50,000 by Kelly Breen, who then tried her on the grass. He now moves back to the main track where she set the pace against open company in her debut. (5) Pretty Miss Keens was on the lead in both of her starts to finish fourth and then third. (9) Clover Street was second in her debut on a sloppy track at 11-1.

7th race [Md Sp Wt, 6F TURF] – (12) Sweetlou’sgotaces was a close second in her debut which prompted a try in the Matron (G3) where she ran sixth. (4) Candle faced three horses in her first two starts that are running in the Breeders’ Cup this weekend. (6) Every Time set the pace in both of her starts and finished fourth and then a third close for the win. She also faced a Breeders’ Cup horse in her first race. (9) Positive Message was on the lead in her first two races for Graham Motion and was heavily bet in both of those starts. She lost to a Breeders’ Cup horse in her debut.

10th race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (7) Caribbean Breeze broke last in her debut, looked green when she faced heavy kickback from the sloppy track at odds of 8-1 for Brad Cox. (8) Showemyourheels had a promising debut on the turf at Saratoga and then ran on a muddy track when her October start came off the turf. (2) Kara Para had an identical first two races to the #8, but she took to the muddy track better when she finished second. (4) Sweetness will make her debut for Jorge Abreu who does well with his firsters. The dam was stakes placed as a 2-year-old and produced three winners from four to start and two of them won over $200,000 in their careers.

Best bets: Blinding Light (2nd); Highway Harmony (6th). Best value: Sweetlou’sgotaces (7th); Caribbean Breeze (10th).

No.


Name


Letter/
last race


Today's Race


Comments

(4)


Blinding Light


C on 10/6


2


Lost a head bob last time to a Hot List horse.

(3)


Highway Harmony


A on 8/12


6


Had the lead in the stretch in her debut.

(7)


Caribbean Breeze


B on 9/22


10


Broke last and climbed from the sloppy kickback

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Keeneland Breeders' Cup Friday Tip Sheet - November 4, 2022

November 4, 2022

KEENELAND TIPS - FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 04, 2022
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 62% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $185,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 11:55 AM ET
BEST BET: #6 B DAWK
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	2-1	6	B Dawk	L Saez
PLACE	3-1	8	Open Road	F Geroux
SHOW	6-1	4	Business Model	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	4-1	2	Ethereal Road	I Ortiz Jr
ALTERNATE 1	5-1	9	Search Engine	E Morales
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	7	Jungle Warfare	R Bejarano
* EXACTA: 6-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/8 BOX, 2/4/8 BOX
RACE #2 $150,000 MAIDEN 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:30 PM ET
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	6-1	10	Affirmative Lady	JR Velazquez
PLACE	5-1	11	Adiva	F Prat
SHOW	5-1	6	Klassy Bridgette	F Arrieta
WILD CARD	9/2	8	Vivid Dreams	L Saez
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	7	Black Forest	I Ortiz Jr
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	2	Magical Song	J Rosario
* EXACTA: 10-11 BOX, 11-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/10/11 BOX, 6/8/11 BOX
RACE #3 $160,000 ALLOWANCE 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:05 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 CALL ME FAST
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	10-1	1	Call Me Fast	F Arrieta
PLACE	6/5	11	Marsalis	R Santana Jr
SHOW	6-1	3	Spartan Army	T Gaffalione
WILD CARD	10-1	10	Seal Beach	JJ Hernandez
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	6	Pro Oxidant	L Saez
ALTERNATE 2	9/2	8	Appeal Denied	F Geroux
* EXACTA: 1-11 BOX, 11-3 BOX, 3-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/11 BOX, 3/10/11 BOX
RACE #4 $160,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:40 PM ET
BEST BET: #9 ARABIAN LION
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	7/2	9	Arabian Lion	I Ortiz Jr
PLACE	4-1	12	Protege	L Saez
SHOW	5-1	11	Tres Soles	R Santana Jr
WILD CARD	15-1	6	Welaka	A Beschizza
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	7	Tap in Formation	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	4	Baytown Lovely	J Gilligan
* EXACTA: 9-12 BOX, 12-11 BOX, 11-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 9/11/12 BOX, 6/11/12 BOX
RACE #5 $350,000 STAKES 1 5/8 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:15 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $350,000 TBRED AFTERCARE ALLIANCE STAKES GRADE II
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	4	Heywoods Beach	RA Vazquez
PLACE	5/2	1	Rattle N Roll	BJ Hernandez Jr
SHOW	7/2	6	Bal Harbour	L Saez
WILD CARD	15-1	2	Next	L Machado
ALTERNATE 1	6-1	9	Win the Day	U Rispoli
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	5	Sheriff Brown	F Geroux
* EXACTA: 1,2,4,6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1,2,4,6/1,4/1,2,4,6,9
COMMENTS: HEYWOODS BEACH ran faster fractions last out despite going a little longer. RATTLE N ROLL will be looking for his third win and triple digit speed figure in a row. BAL HARBOUR will try to get loose on the lead and go to wire like he did in his last start. NEXT just needs to repeat his last race where he was brilliant from start to finish.
RACE #6 $1,000,000 STAKES 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:00 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $1M BC JUVENILE TURF SPRINT GI
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	2	Love Reigns	I Ortiz Jr
PLACE	7/2	12	The Platinum Queen	H Doyle
SHOW	15-1	6	Persian Force	L Dettori
WILD CARD	15-1	4	Dramatised	RL Moore
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	5	Mischief Magic	WT Buick
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	3	Private Creed	J Rosario
* EXACTA: 2,4,6,12 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2,4,6,12/2,6,12/2,4,5,6,12
COMMENTS: LOVE REIGNS is another Wesley Ward rocket that tends to extend her dominance as the race goes on. THE PLATINUM QUEEN has faced and beat older horses. She appears to prefer firmer footing which she will get. PERSIAN FORCE is battle tested and proven to be extremely competitive against some of Europes best two year olds. DRAMATISED won his first two races with ease and then ran a stinker in his third. A little rest and a jockey switch to Ryan Moore could help him find his early form.
RACE #7 $2,000,000 STAKES 1 1/16 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:40 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $2M BC JUVENILE FILLIES GRADE I
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	5-1	5	Wonder Wheel	T Gaffalione
PLACE	4-1	7	Chop Chop	J Rosario
SHOW	7/2	10	Chocolate Gelato	I Ortiz Jr
WILD CARD	8-1	14	Raging Sea	F Prat
ALTERNATE 1	12-1	8	Atomically	L Saez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	3	And Tell Me Nolies	RA Vazquez
* EXACTA: 5,7,10,14 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5,7,10,14/5,7,10/5,7,8,10,14
COMMENTS: WONDER WHEEL can some better fractions last out through the first 6 furlongs and has two nice works since. CHOP CHOP is just a nose from being undefeated in three races and also has some nice tune up works between races. CHOCOLATE GELATO could get a really good trip for her running style. RAGING SEA showed better early pace in her last race and first at a mile or more.
RACE #8 $1,000,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:20 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $1M BC JUVENILE FILLIES TURF GRADE I
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4-1	10	Meditate	RL Moore
PLACE	6-1	9	Delight	L Saez
SHOW	12-1	11	G Laurie	WT Buick
WILD CARD	12-1	2	Cairo Consort	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	12	Midnight Mile	W Lordan
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	5	Pleasant Passage	I Ortiz Jr
* EXACTA: 2,9,10,11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2,9,10,11/9,10,11/2,9,10,11,12
COMMENTS: This is an extremely competitive race where you can make a case for at least half the entrants. MEDIATE has four wins and a pair of seconds in her start. She ran in nothing but group company after winning her debut. DELIGHT has a pair of races at Keeneland with a win and third. G LAURIE has the top pedigree scores for grass. She will be coming hard late and jockey Luis Saez will need to avoid getting blocked again. CAIRO CONSORT has some versatility and is able to score from the front to back.
RACE #9 $2,000,000 STAKES 1 1/16 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:00 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $2M BC JUVENILE GRADE I
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	4/5	3	Cave Rock	JJ Hernandez
PLACE	4-1	4	Forte	I Ortiz Jr
SHOW	30-1	1	Hurricane J	J Talamo
WILD CARD	8-1	10	National Treasure	JR Velazquez
ALTERNATE 1	10-1	5	Verifyig	J Rosario
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	8	Lost Ark	L Saez
* EXACTA: 3/1,4,5,8,10
* TRIFECTA: 3/1,4,10/1,4,5,8,10
COMMENTS: CAVE ROCK looks like the next wonder horse for trainer Bob Baffert. He is undefeated in three with triple digit speed figures. FORTE will be hoping for a pace melt up so he can blow by dead legged speed. HURRICANE J has plenty of early pop and is going long for the first time, which can be a longshot winning combo. NATIONAL TREASURE was a lot better in career start number two and has three nice workouts since.
RACE #10 $1,000,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:40 PM ET
** BONUS COMMENTARY ** $1M BC JUVENILE TURF GRADE I
PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY
WIN	3-1	4	Silver Knott	WT Buick
PLACE	5-1	6	Andthewinneris	J Rosario
SHOW	9/2	8	Im Very Busy	F Prat
WILD CARD	6-1	2	Packs a Wahlop	ME Smith
ALTERNATE 1	8-1	1	Victoria Road	RL Moore
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	9	Nagirroc	M Franco
* EXACTA: 2,4,6,8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2,4,6,8/4,6,/1,2,4,6,8,9
COMMENTS: SILVER KNOTT cost more than one million dollars and has run to his price tag in three of five races. ANDTHEWINNERIS ran some much better fractions last out at Keeneland where he is two for two. IM VERY BUSY got bumped early in his last and had to run wide on a yielding track. He should get a firm course and hopefully a cleaner trip. PACKS A WAHLOP is undefeated in two at the distance and neither were close as he pulled away at the wire.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Keeneland Breeders' Cup Friday FULLCARD Hotlist - November 4, 2022

November 4, 2022

Today’s Keeneland Hot List fullcard selections
Friday, Nov. 4, 2022
Future Stars Friday at the Breeders’ Cup
By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1^st race – (8) Open Road showed speed and held on in his first try at 1 1/8 miles. Can lead throughout here (2) Ethereal Road switches to Irad and looks like the one to fear. (6) B Dawk should turn in a better effort here. (9) Search Engine fits in nicely but landed the outside post.
2^nd race – (8) Vivid Dreams is a firster from Pletcher who looks best here. (6) Klassy Bridgette closed for second in her debut and will be a stretch threat here. (2) Magical Song debuts for Cox and is worth a look. (11) Adiva adds Prat and has some appeal.
3^rd race - (11) Marsalis can control the pace from the outside post and handle this field. (6) Pro Oxidant has been working smartly for this test. (3) Spartan Army was third behind the top pick and should be in the picture again. (8) Appeal Denied exits a solid win and is worth a close look.
4^th race – (9) Arabian Lion was an impressive debut winner for Baffert and can make it two in a row here. (2) Giant Mischief won his debut despite trouble and can push the top pick. (12) Prot

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LAUREL PARK PICKS AND PONDERINGS: NOVEMBER 4, 2022
John Piassek

Post time: 12:15 p.m.

Carryovers: Rainbow Jackpot Pick 6 — $16,775 Super High 5 — $0 Late Pick 5 — $0

Check out our other handicapping here!

RACE 1: MAIDEN CLAIMING $45,000, 3, 4, AND 5-YEAR-OLDS, FILLIES AND MARES, 1 1/8 MILES (GRASS)

4-1-3-6

Nine races are on the docket today as we kick off a new racing week, and the racing month of November. #4 Commander Buzzkill (6-1) will make her American debut here for Tom Morley. She’s raced once this year, finishing fourth in her grass debut at St. Cloud in France. Since coming to these shores in September, she’s worked steadily at Belmont Park and looks ready to turn in a solid race. She was entered to run a few weeks ago at Aqueduct but the race was washed off the grass. #1 Birthday Time (3-1) raced first off the claim by Joe Sharp in her last grass start and held on for third after chasing a hot pace. She’s run a brisnet figure no worse than 74 in her last four races and peaked at an 82 in the most recent contest. #3 Call Me Vivian (6-1), my top-ranked local contender, has put in strong late rallies in her last few starts but might not have enough early speed to seriously contend for the win in this one.

RACE 2: CLAIMING $10,000 (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 6 FURLONGS

9-4-8-2

There’s lots of speed in this one. In a race like this, the big question is always: among the front-runners, who’s most likely to get away on the lead? He’s going to have to clear from the outside post, but #9 Golden Avieator (4-1) looks fast enough to do it. He blew the doors off the field last out at Delaware Park with an impressive gate-to-wire showing. His early pace figures are the best in the field, so if he breaks cleanly, he can outkick the others early. If he can’t clear and the pace falls apart, #4 Highland Dream (8-1) should sit just off the leaders and make a winning move on the turn. He got engaged in a tussle at Timonium two starts back, a race he won, but isn’t a need-the-lead type. He’s racing first off the claim by Kieron Magee. #8 Free Square (6-1) got a pace to run into at this condition last out and was a solid third with an improved figure of 74. He’ll try to avoid getting caught too wide after sitting in mid-pack early on.

RACE 3: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, MD-BRED/SIRED, 5 1/2 FURLONGS (GRASS)

6-5-3-1

#6 Etched in Stone (6-1) was a hard-charging second in his last grass start at Colonial Downs, and now gets back to the lawn after getting washed off last out. He’s never raced on this grass course before but should enjoy the long stretch run. #5 Monster Mason (6-1) drops back in against Maryland-breds after several tries at this condition against open types. He was close in two tries at this level over the summer but fell short in his last three races versus better. He might not have enough early speed to win it but nonetheless looks like a contender. #3 Prince Pere (9-2) finally broke through for his first win in a while after sitting near the pace. His late pace figures aren’t great so we’ll see if he maintains the strategy of staying close to the lead.

RACE 4: CLAIMING $40,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE

4-1-3-2

#4 Federal Offense (3-1) has run in the 80s twice in his last three starts and lost photos in both of those races after setting the pace. He’ll likely try to wire them once again. #1 Wonder Water (4-1) finally broke his maiden in his sixteenth try last out, getting up in the last few jumps for a half-length win. He struggled in his prior two races but usually runs in the upper-70s and low-80s. That kind of race probably wins this one. #3 Under the Radar (2-1) has quite the streak going: he’s finished third in his last seven dirt races. With his strong closing kick but total lack of late speed, he looks like a good bet to finish third once again.

RACE 5: CLAIMING $16,000 (N/W2L), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/8 MILES (GRASS)

10-9-4-6

#10 Cash Rocket (7-2) looked sharp in his first race off a long layoff two starts back, when he came from off the pace to break his maiden going away at Pimlico. He improved his figure next out when washed off to dirt and should run a good one in his third start off the layoff. #9 Fredisaten (6-1) broke his maiden in his first start of the Colonial Downs season on July 13 and improved his figure with every start at the track this year. He made good ground on dirt last out and is likely to put in a strong closing bid. #4 Star Shopping (6-1) lost a photo two starts back at Colonial, outfinishing Fredisaten in the process. Next out, he went off as the favorite at Delaware, but was third after closing decent ground late. He’ll be tough if he can make a well-timed move.

RACE 6: MAIDEN CLAIMING $45,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 7 FURLONGS

7-1-11-12

#7 B West (4-1) debuted last out in what proved to be a very productive maiden race. The winner, Post Time, and the third-place finisher, Prince of Jericho, came back to win their next two races in very impressive fashion. He showed speed after a bad start and faded but should improve second time out. #1 Shackinthebox (6-1) is one of the most experienced horses in the field, having already raced three times. He’s closed well for a minor share in his last two starts, although he did decline to a 65 last out after a poor start and a wide trip. He ran a 77 two races ago; a race like that likely wins this one. #11 Energy Efficient (9-2) cuts back to seven furlongs after a promising two-turn race. This distance should suit him well.

RACE 7: ALLOWANCE (N/W1X), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 1/16 MILES (GRASS)

10-14-11-6

#10 Crisper (3-1) closed off a slow pace and almost chased down Wicked Prankster in his last race, losing to him by a neck. Of course, Wicked Prankster came back to win the Maryland Million Turf in his next start. Crisper’s run an 87 and a 91 in back-to-back races, by contrast, only one horse in the field has run an 87 at any point in their last three grass races. #14 Call Curt (5-2), after being on the losing end of some recent photo finishes, got up to win by a neck at Delaware last out after sitting a good stalking trip. He has good tactical speed, but in his recent races he has not really shown a winning punch. He likes to merely grind on and eke out a close win or a narrow defeat. #11 Beltway Bob (10-1) rallied for a surprise win in the Maryland Million Turf Starter Handicap for his first win of the year. His figures in the late summer and fall have been consistent, with three of his last four races in the low-80s. He should contend for an exotics spot.

RACE 8: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING (CONDITIONED), 3-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, 1 MILE

5-1-6-3

An excellent field with some of the top local male routers will contest today’s feature race. #5 American d’Oro (5-1) handled an off-the-grass field with ease last out, coming from off the pace and driving away to a 9 1/4-length win with an impressive figure of 98. It was his first victory on dirt. This is a much tougher field than the one he saw last time, but a repeat of that effort will beat these. He’ll rate towards the back early on and motor home in the stretch. #1 Benandjoe (10-1) looks like the stronger half of the Larry Rabold/Hugh McMahon entry. Usually a front-runner, he showed a new dimension in his last start when he came from off the pace and won a second-level allowance at Pimlico. Outside of a poor race in June that sent him to the sidelines, he’s run in the 90s all year and looks interesting at a price. All eyes will be on #6 Cordmaker (7-5) in here. This lovable Maryland-bred veteran is making his first start since a win in the General George Stakes in February, for his fourth consecutive stakes win. A top-two finish here pushes him past the $1 million mark in career earnings. He generally runs in the upper 90s, occasionally cracking triple digits. That means if he’s even slightly off his game first off the layoff, he’s very vulnerable. He might win this race on pure class, but at a low price I’d be inclined to take a shot against.

RACE 9: MAIDEN CLAIMING $20,000, 2-YEAR-OLDS, 6 FURLONGS

2-7-3-8

#2 Ice Cube Baby (2-1) gets the nod in a lukewarm field to wrap up the day. She went out on a free-wheeling lead last out going seven furlongs and held on for third. If she can manage her speed a bit better, she has a chance to wire this group. #7 Bubba Chrome (8-1) got some action in his debut on grass at Colonial, going off at 13-1 against straight maidens. However, he stumbled at the start and was eased. He’s worked well since and now makes his first start for Kenny Cox. #3 Wesright (8-1) goes first out for Kieron Magee. While the barn is not great with debuters, it’s also not a great field, so he can surprise if shows even some ability on debut.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Aqueduct - Race #7 - Post: 3:23pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $85,000 Class Rating: 93

Rating:

#7 GALILEO'S JEWEL (IRE) (ML=6/1)
#12 SWEETLOU'SGOTACES (ML=5/2)


GALILEO'S JEWEL (IRE) - This jock and handler have a positive return on investment when they join forces. Not a lot of grass experience, but the sire (Kingman (GB)) shows a wonderful pedigree for the turf. The trainer here (Dutrow) has a highly positive ROI with 1st timers. SWEETLOU'SGOTACES - Running on the grass today, you should review a horse's class. This one has the top number in the bunch. In this race here, this horse has clearly shown signs that she likes the turf. Her speed figures are the highest in the field for this distance & surface. Entered the Matron at Belmont at the Big A last time out and raced on the soft turf finishing sixth. Will most certainly do better today. Ran a quick time for the last quarter on October 8th at Belmont at the Big A. Anything close in this race should get the job done.

Vulnerable Contenders: #14 BILOXI BLUES (ML=7/2), #4 CANDLE (ML=6/1), #13 OCEAN SPIRIT (GB) (ML=6/1),

BILOXI BLUES - Would have to get quite a bit more than the M/L odds of 7/2 to wager on this horse. CANDLE - The Brain cautions me to stay away from thoroughbreds in sprint races that haven't finished in the money in sprint races lately. OCEAN SPIRIT (GB) - This filly almost certainly won't be very close at the finish.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - GALILEO'S JEWEL (IRE) - My main man Stevearino turned me onto betting certain trainers with 1st timers. Dutrow is currently on my list.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #7 GALILEO'S JEWEL (IRE) on the win end if we get at least 2/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [7,12]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	[7,12] with [7,12] with [1,6,9,10,11] Total Cost: $10

** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Golden Hour Wagers

Golden Hour Wagers - Race 1	Leg 1 of the Golden Hour Pick 4
Maiden Special • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $61,000 • Post: 4:52P
SA - R9 - (RAIL AT 20 FEET). FOR CALIFORNIA BRED OR CALIFORNIA SIRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. (NON-STARTERS FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $40,000 OR LESS IN THEIR LAST START PREFERRED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. SHOCKING GREY is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SHOCKING GREY: Today is a horse's first or second race on turf, and turf starters from this sire have a win percentage of at least 15 (minimum of 50 sta rts). Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. BEAUTIFUL TEMPLE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. DON'T JU FORGET: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
2	SHOCKING GREY	5/2	4/1
1	BEAUTIFUL TEMPLE	6/1	9/2
8	DON'T JU FORGET	3/1	6/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	KAYLAS JOY	4	20/1	Front-runner	80	59	15.4	55.7	43.2
2	SHOCKING GREY	2	5/2	Stalker	78	80	75.8	75.8	72.3
3	CANDY ON TOP	3	3/1	Stalker	77	77	58.8	62.6	55.6
1	BEAUTIFUL TEMPLE	1	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	87	75	72.4	75.8	71.3
8	DON'T JU FORGET	8	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	73	79	66.4	74.9	67.4
6	MARGOT'S GIRL	6	12/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	48.4	63.3	53.8
7	SAPADILLA	7	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	86	65	69.8	53.6	42.6
5	FURSACE	5	4/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Keeneland

11/04/22, KEE, Race 2, 12.30 ET
11/04/22,KEE,2,7F [Dirt] 1:20:01 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $150,000 (includes up to $25,000 KTDF - Kentucky TB Devt Fund). FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. Weight, 119 lbs. (Preference To Horses That Have Not Started For Less $50,000).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	7	Black Forest	6/1	Ortiz. Jr. I	Gutierrez Fausto	JL	115	32.17	1.43/$1
098.0522	11	Adiva	5/1	Prat F	Puhich Michael		115	32.17	1.43/$1
096.9816	8	Vivid Dreams	9/2	Saez L	Pletcher Todd A.		185	31.89	1.22/$1
096.6562	5	La Perla Nera	15/1	Garcia M	Kenneally Eddie		115	32.17	1.43/$1
095.5613	10	Affirmative Lady	6/1	Velazquez J R	Motion H. Graham		115	32.17	1.43/$1
095.5112	4	Lovin' On the Run	12/1	Leparoux J R	Stall. Jr. Albert M.		115	32.17	1.43/$1
094.3128	9	Strikingly Spun	10/1	Gaffalione T	Sharp Joe		133	25.56	1.32/$1
094.2748	6	Klassy Bridgette	5/1	Arrieta F	Hartman Chris A.	SFEC	133	25.56	1.32/$1
093.7964	3	Indy Again	30/1	Morales E	Arnold. II George R.		115	32.17	1.43/$1
093.4594	2	Magical Song	8/1	Rosario J	Cox Brad H.	T	133	25.56	1.32/$1
092.3079	12	No Guilt	20/1	Michel M	Lukas D. Wayne		133	25.56	1.32/$1
090.4730	1	Stay Fabulous	12/1	Santana. Jr. R	Asmussen Steven M.		115	32.17	1.43/$1

Top rated horse With "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 27.59, ROI 1.07/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -1.9478
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[All Dirt] Not First Race After 45 Days Off

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[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Golden Gate Fields - Race #7 - Post: 4:37pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $31,000 Class Rating: 89

Rating:

#2 MADEIRA WINE (ML=8/1)
#3 DERRYGOOLIN (ML=5/2)
#6 DISTORTED QUEEN (ML=9/2)


MADEIRA WINE - It looks like Radke had to come to know this filly on Sep 30th when riding her for the first time. Back on again today. Filly shipped to this track and won; now goes for two in a row. Look at this pattern of improvement. 71/79/87 are the last three speed ratings. I'm focusing on the class of this thoroughbred, and this one is the 'classiest' of the bunch. DERRYGOOLIN - Here is a true horse for the course. Loves the track here at Golden Gate Fields. Earnings per start is something that I believe can be an extremely key handicapping aspect. This horse is ranked numero uno in this group. This horse has increased her speed figures in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is worth considering when its time to bet. DISTORTED QUEEN - Finished fourth at Golden Gate Fields last out. Was close at the end and at odds of 9/2 right here, she looks like a possible contender. Look at this pattern of improvement. 64/80/85 are the last three Equibase speed figures.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 STOIC LUNA (ML=2/1), #7 REV REE (ML=7/2),

STOIC LUNA - I don't think this runner likes running on the inside, certainly not out of the one post. REV REE - Won't be easy for this mount to beat this field off of that last speed rating. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class rating, so put her on the questionable contenders list.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 MADEIRA WINE to win at post-time odds of 4/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:	None