Sunday 11/6/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Northfiield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

---

November 6, 2022 | By Al Cimaglia
Tonight, Northfield Park has a 13-race program with the feature coming in Race 11, an Open Handicap Pace with an $18,000 purse. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 begins in Race 10. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 10

1-Rollin In New York (4-1)-This Kreiser trainee is in sharp form and has big gate speed. Should be on the engine or in the pocket and is a player. Using and fading Merriman on the tepid program chalk (5).
4-Rockn Motion (7/2)-Got the pocket behind a 150 winner but was cutting his own mile for a long way and that trip didn't work well. Should race near the top of the stack but this time things should set-up differently.

Race 11

4-One Last Laugh (6-1)-Willing to look past the last 2 starts coming from post 8 and 7. Beat Open Hcp company here on 10-17 from this post. Needs the right trip but can top this crew. This veteran knows how to win taking 12 pictures in 38 starts this year.
7-Sawyer's Desire (6-1)-Winner of 2 straight steps-up and at the morning line price offers some value. Could drop in just in front of or in the pocket behind #8 and then take a swing down the lane.
8-Backstreet Shadow (2-1)-Drew off by 5 lengths on 10-31 versus this kind at the Meadows on a sloppy track. Has big speed and can leave fast as well but makes his Nfld debut tonight and the price will be small.

Race 12

1-Mississippidragon (1/1)-Went off at 56-1 last week and rolled the back half in 57.1 to finish 2nd. Draws the rail, Wrenn takes the lines and now is the even money morning line chalk. It is a suspect group so shouldn't be dismissed. But this is a 3-year-old who hasn't won anything facing older in her 2nd start, using but there likely won't be any value.
4-Ms Hillfiger (7-1)-This 3-year-old is 0-10 but shows some speed, makes the 1st start for the Roegner barn and gets a positive driver change in Kurt Sugg. Was off 22 days before the last start, did show improved speed and could be a solid price.

Race 13

2-Closing Statement (6-1)-Should get a good early seat and Merriman can work a trip to be in striking range at the top of the stretch. This is the 4th start off the bench and returns to Nfld for the 1st time since 7-24. Could be sitting on a big try at a nice price.
4-Risenshine Seaside (2-1)-Burke 3-year-old has had a nice year versus state breds and deserves respect. Wrenn should be leaving to land on the point and will be facing older. Looks like a short price and needs a sharp steer.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

1,4/4,7,8/1,4/2,4
Total Bet=$24

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

---

Hawthorne - Race #2

#12 Vitale	He's typically pretty dicey in the lane, but I do think there's a chance he's able to control the tempo from this higher post, as there aren't a ton of other early burners signed on. Let's see if he can take them a long way.
#9 Hannity	I haven't historically thought much of this guy, but he has found some consistent form since joining this barn, and he should be in line for a great trip that may let him inherit the lead if the top choice comes back.
#4 Cammack	Hard-knocking 12-year-old still turns in big efforts, and he should be able to sit close to what figures to be a modest sort of pace here. Capable player.
Race Summary	Vitale might be fast enough to find the front, as those drawn inside of him mostly want to settle and finish, and he's probably a decent fit with these after a good effort with statebred allowance company last out.

Hawthorne - Race #5

#7 Ghaaleb's Honor	She has some reliable finishing ability and has already proven that her downstate form fits here, and she can probably sit a lot closer here than she did last out after a tricky start.
#2 Great Plaines	He's probably way too cheap for these, but I could see him flashing a bit of pace from near the fence and managing to stick around a bit in a race where some of the logical players will want to settle early..
#8 Tuff Attack	He should be in a pretty good spot into the turn, but I think his best game is turf right now and he might be best used underneath in this spot.
Race Summary	Ghaaleb's Honor should be able to find a good spot tracking the pace, and I'm not sold on the real depth of this field, so I think his typical effort should be good enough here.

Hawthorne - Race #7

#6 W W Candy	Think there is enough pace in here to set things up for a run from off the splits, and he has historically been very good here. Hope an early battle sets the table for a mid-range price score.
#10 Silver Seeker	He hasn't done much wrong through four starts, and that New York statebred race last out was pretty impressive -- that said, last out was back in December 2019, so your guess is as good as mine on paper. Get a look at him on the track, because his B game might be competitive here if he still has it in him.
#7 Golden Hornet	Pace has not been seriously challenged in either of his dirt starts, and he figures to have a go for it again here today. He may not need a breather to land this, but presence of other pace hints that he won't get one either way.
Race Summary	W W Candy could get a pretty nice setup from off the pace as there are a few committed forward players who may produce a decent set of splits.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Laurel Park

Laurel Park - Race 9	EXACTA, TRIFECTA &10 cent SUPERFECTA / $1.00 SUPER HIGH 5
SO $12,500 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 89 • Purse: $26,000 • Post: 4:21P
(RAIL AT 17 FEET). (PLUS UP TO 15% MBF) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS IN THEIR LAST THREE STARTS OR CLAIMING PRICE $12,500-10,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 6 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $10,000, ALLOWED 4 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $8,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES). (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE ON THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT ONE MILE)

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * GOLD RUSH KIZZIE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or tur f) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. DANCING TIL DUSK: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. KLAYTON'S KANDY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
8	GOLD RUSH KIZZIE	4/1	4/1
5	DANCING TIL DUSK	6/1	6/1
10	KLAYTON'S KANDY	7/2	7/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	PRINCESS JAVONCIA	2	8/1	Front-runner	85	84	96.6	80.2	70.2
10	KLAYTON'S KANDY	10	7/2	Front-runner	95	82	91.6	84.4	75.4
1	BEATUBYACHUBINOSE	1	12/1	Front-runner	85	70	57.8	46.5	28.5
12	WITCH	12	15/1	Alternator/Front-runner	86	86	71.6	80.8	65.8
8	GOLD RUSH KIZZIE	8	4/1	Stalker	92	97	85.8	85.6	73.1
13	DRIVEN BY SPEED	13	12/1	Stalker	88	83	74.4	78.4	63.4
3	NEW YORK ROCK STAR	3	8/1	Stalker	78	74	62.0	68.1	52.6
7	OIL ON CANVAS	7	20/1	Alternator/Stalker	73	69	85.9	77.8	55.3
5	DANCING TIL DUSK	5	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	91	78	74.8	79.2	73.2
11	VOLADOR	11	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	83	79	61.2	75.6	64.1
9	MY BOSS LADY	9	15/1	Trailer	83	69	57.5	64.0	47.5
4	DEVILISH AFFAIR	4	5/2	Alternator/Trailer	80	81	48.3	48.3	30.3
6	INSTINCTIVE	6	9/2	Alternator/Non-contender	84	81	81.8	75.8	67.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer Park

Mountaineer Park - Race 6	$2 Exacta $1 Box $1 Trifecta $.50 Box $1 Superfecta $.20 Box $2 Pick 3 (races 6-8) $1 Wheel
Allowance • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 74 • Purse: $18,800 • Post: 9:05P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 6 ALLOWED 3 LBS. (CLAIMING RACES FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES)(W V A BRED RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * CHARGINA: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CANT BEAT THE KATZ: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. VICTORY ROYALE: H orse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). WITNESS THE ENERGY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
3	CHARGINA	2/1	7/2
7	CANT BEAT THE KATZ	4/1	7/1
1	VICTORY ROYALE	8/1	8/1
5	WITNESS THE ENERGY	9/2	10/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	SHARED MISCHIEF	2	12/1	Front-runner	68	66	79.6	52.8	43.8
5	WITNESS THE ENERGY	5	9/2	Front-runner	71	58	69.6	61.0	52.5
6	EASY	6	5/2	Front-runner	65	66	68.9	51.8	44.3
7	CANT BEAT THE KATZ	7	4/1	Alternator/Front-runner	59	77	67.8	58.1	51.1
4	SUFFERIN SUCCOTASH	4	12/1	Stalker	70	63	67.2	54.8	43.3
1	VICTORY ROYALE	1	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	76	73	45.0	63.0	55.0
3	CHARGINA	3	2/1	Alternator/Trailer	73	71	57.4	70.4	65.9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Woodbine - Race #5 - Post: 3:28pm - Maiden Special - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $126,800 Class Rating: 82

Rating:

#2 ARMSTRONG (ML=2/1)
#6 FIELD HOCKEY (ML=8/1)
#3 MIDNIGHT TEMPESTA (ML=20/1)


ARMSTRONG - Ranked at the top in earnings per race. Another indicator that this animal is the class of the field. Casse drops this one in today for only his second contest. Should do better than last out. Gets help from Casse with the addition of Lasix. FIELD HOCKEY - Taking a class drop in class figure points from his Oct 8th race at Woodbine. Based on that valuable data, I will give this thoroughbred the advantage. The ROI when Flores and Glennon team up is outstanding. The addition of Lasix might make this equine wake up and smell the coffee right here in this race. MIDNIGHT TEMPESTA - I figure that this shorter trip should help this colt.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 YORKVILLE (ML=9/5), #7 STANLEY HOUSE (ML=6/1),

YORKVILLE - It looks like too much speed is on board in this event. This speed merchant will almost certainly get roasted at the front. STANLEY HOUSE - I'm predicting a less than stellar try out of him today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #2 ARMSTRONG to win if you can get odds of 2/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	2 with [3,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[2,3,6] with [2,3,6] with [2,3,5,6,9] with [2,3,5,6,9] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Aqueduct

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 6 - Optional Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $95000 Class Rating: 103

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $18,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $62,500. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES OTHER THAN CLAIMING OR STARTER AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MAY 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 MARKET ALERT 8/1
# 3 WAR STOPPER 7/2
# 6 NABOKOV 4/1

My selection for this race is MARKET ALERT and is a very good value bet given the line at 8/1. The Lasix change (with second time Lasix) may spark a turn around for this gelding. With one of the strongest jockeys in terms of gains at the window, don't count this gelding out. Has a solid record at the distance and surface, which makes me favor this gelding. WAR STOPPER - He has been running solidly as of late while recording strong Equibase speed figs. The Equibase Speed Figure of 95 from his last race looks quite good in here. NABOKOV - Wagerers ought to take a good look at this one as this colt has one of the best win percentages at this distance in this group of horses in this race. Formidable rider and trainer combo winning 29 percent of their races working together.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Golden Hour Wagers

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 3 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Turf. Purse: $63000 Class Rating: 92

SA - R10 - FOR CALIFORNIA BRED OR CALIFORNIA SIRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $15,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING, OR STARTER ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000 (NON-STARTERS FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 11 IN VRONSKY STYLE 5/2
# 4 BRIX 6/1
# 6 MOOSE MITCHELL 3/1

IN VRONSKY STYLE supports the wager in here. He has a good opportunity in this competition as handler, Damato, has strong win clip with horses going this distance. Should go to the front end and may never look back. Has performed soundly recently in sprint races, posting a nifty 92 avg speed figure. BRIX - The speed fig of 89 from his most recent race looks very good in here. Looks to have a quite good class edge based on the most recent company kept. MOOSE MITCHELL - Looks like a reliable candidate for the exotics. Strong jockey with trainer figs make this horse a strong betting selection.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Hawthorne - Race #4 - Post: 4:08pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 70

Rating:

#7 UNCLE DICK (ML=8/1)


UNCLE DICK - You probably want to overlook that last affair at Belterra Park on a track listed as good where he finished out of the money. Should do well in this event with the benefit of a fast track. Finished fifth at Belterra Park last out. Was close at the end and at odds of 8/1 in this event, he looks like a possible contender. Taking this jock/trainer combination is a smart move. This horse has increased his speed ratings from a fig of 50 to 56 to 63 in succession.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 HURTS SO BAD (ML=9/5), #2 JIM AND JIM (ML=5/2), #4 INSIDE THE CIRCLE (ML=9/2),

HURTS SO BAD - If he goes off anywhere near the morning line odds of 9/5, I'll have to pass. JIM AND JIM - This gelding showed very liitle last time out. Won't be easy for this horse to beat this group off of that last speed fig. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure close to today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the likely underpriced equines list. INSIDE THE CIRCLE - Hard to keep stabbing at this sort of 'bridesmaid' horse. This gelding recorded a speed figure in his last affair which probably isn't good enough today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#7 UNCLE DICK to win at post-time odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Churchill Downs

11/06/22, CD, Race 9, 5.05 ET
11/06/22,CD,9,1 1/8M [Dirt] 1:47:01 STARTER ALLOWANCE. Purse $72,000 (plus up to $10,800 KTDF - Kentucky TB Devt Fund). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $50,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Over A Mile Since October 6 Allowed 2 lbs. (Races Where Entered For $40,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	10	Extravagate	9/2	Hernandez. Jr. B J	McPeek Kenneth G.	TFWLC	214	30.37	1.32/$1
097.3325	7	Freeze Pop	5/1	Graham J	Londono Genevieve		451	30.38	1.13/$1
096.1836	4	Doctor Nash	10/1	Cheminaud V	Tomlinson Michael A.	S	214	30.37	1.32/$1
095.8238	3	Miacomet	4/1	Saez L	Moquett Ron	J	214	30.37	1.32/$1
095.0283	1	Two Birds	8/1	Lanerie C J	Hiles Jeff A.		214	30.37	1.32/$1
092.4924	9	Cousin Larry	3/1	Gilligan J	Lovell Michelle		214	30.37	1.32/$1
092.0110	6	Cool Rags	20/1	Geroux F	Foster Eric N.		214	30.37	1.32/$1
091.7265	5	Keepcalmcarryon	6/1	Bejarano R	Margolis Steve	E	214	30.37	1.32/$1
090.4577	8	Declare the Moon	8/1	Murrill M	Hawley Wesley E.		451	30.38	1.13/$1
089.2039	2	El Ahijado	50/1	Miranda R	Guerrero Sal		214	30.37	1.32/$1

Top rated horse With "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 27.47, ROI 0.72/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -2.6675
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Lasix Today -with-
[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Distance Is Not Equal To Today

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kristpicks

aqueduct racetrack - sunday, november 06, 2022 // post time - 11:50 a.m. Est

- daily selections for november 06 -

race 1:
7 - words of praise 6-1
9 - cookie crumbs 3-1
6 - tall girl 9-5

race 2:
1 - mercante 2-1
3 - sixwillberich 4-1
6 - youbetterbejoking 8-1

race 3:
4 - good sam 4-5
2 - binsky 8-1
1 - crypto mama 8-1

race 4:
8 - don't let me down 10-1 - longshot
5 - scramble 7-2
2 - confronted 3-1

race 5:
8 - diva ready 6-1
9 - hope for the best 8-1
3 - princess blakely 7-2

race 6:
6 - nabokov 4-1 - best bet
3 - war stopper 7-2
8 - kinetic sky 3-1

race 7:
5 - summer cause 6-1
8 - tapit trice 3-1
7 - mccullough 4-1

race 8:
3 - waterville 9-5
7 - new ginya 2-1
6 - saratoga chrome 6-1

race 9:
4 - champions dream 3-1
1 - full moon madness 2-1
3 - signator 6-5

race 10:
11 - on palm sunday 10-1
7 - most wanted man 3-1
5 - what a dude 2-1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Wynn

[FONT=arial black][COLOR=#ff0000]Free Pick: NBA Memphis -7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free play from Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Sunday, November 6, 2022
Free Play
11/06 10:00 AM PT / 1:00 PM ET

NFL (453) BUFFALO BILLS VS (454) NEW YORK JETS

Take: (454) NEW YORK JETS

Reason: AFC East matchup here has 1st place Buffalo taking on 2nd place NY Jets from the Meadowlands. The Bills are arguably the best team in the NFL, though some would say it's the Eagles. The Bills have the top ranked offense in the NFL, 15th in rushing and 1st in passing. They have the third ranked defense in the NFL. The Bills are coming off a win over the Packers, 27-17, though they just failed to cover the 10.5-point line. Their only setback of the year in week three at Miami, 19-21. The Jets had their four game win and cover streak snapped last week at home vs the Patriots, 17-22, despite having 336 passing yards and having 98 more yards than the Patriots. Still the Jets one of the surprise teams in the NFL this year as they sit in 2nd in the division. The Jets have the league's 5th ranked defense and 19th ranked offense. Jets getting 11 or 11 1/2 points here at home from the Bills. While I expect a Bills win, I believe it will closer to a Touchdown. Your free play for Sunday is on the Jets.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR EARLY SUNDAY: INDIANAPOLIS/NEW ENGLAND OVER the total of 40

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals4U

Early Sunday's Free Selection: Buffalo Bills/New York Jets over 46

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Roz Wins

ROZ FREE Selection SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 6, 2022
FREE
NFL
466. Jaguars +2.5 (10 PT / 1 ET)