Tweet
SportsBook Breakers
NFL 2022-11-13 1:05 PM : Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs
PICK: Jacksonville Jaguars 10 J175L1123 units
4-STAR Jacksonville over KANSAS CITY – Jacksonville has played better than their record this season and part of that is they just do not get blown out. This team has not lost by more than 8 points once this season. Kansas City was unable to blow out Tennessee last week and we don’t see this going differently.
Jacksonville is the road dog here after three straight home games. Road dog coming off three straight home games are 97-77 ATS
And after this game Jacksonville has a bye before another home game. Teams in at least week eight of the season heading into a regular season bye are 182-141 ATS.
And like Tennessee, Jacksonville can run the ball. They are seventh in the league with 147 yards per game. Teams in game 10 of the season and beyond who are averaging at least 25 rushing yards per game more than league average but are below .500 on the season are 113-85 ATS.
Kansas City has won two straight games but have trailed by at least 8 points in both games. Teams coming off back-to-back wins where they trailed by 7+ points each game are 127-164 ATS.
And KC has thrown for more than 400 yards in each of those games. Teams which combined for at least 740 passing yards their last two games are 56-87 ATS.
They defeated Tennessee in overtime last week 20-17. That came in a game they were 14-point favorites. The Chiefs are 0-13 ATS when they are not more than an 11-point favorite coming off a win where they failed to cover by at least 5 points
Tennessee was just 5-of-16 throwing the ball in that game. Since 2010, teams coming off a game where they allowed less than 48% of their opponents passes completed are 183-218 ATS.
KC is again a high favorite in this game with a total of 51. The Chiefs are 1-10 ATS since November 2020 as a favorite of at least 7 points when the total is over 48
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: KANSAS CITY 27, Jacksonville 24
NFL 2022-11-13 1:05 PM : New Orleans Saints vs Pittsburgh Steelers
PICK: Under 40 J175L1123 units
4.5-STAR New Orleans and Pittsburgh Under – This game is expected to be competitive for Pittsburgh and there is just not much of a chance that happens in a high scoring game. This team has not scored more than 20 points in 7 games. With Kenny Pickett under center if they do stay close that is all the more reason to be conservative.
This is a low total game with the line just 1.5 in this matchup. When the line is within two of pick and the total is at least three points lower than the league average total are 131-196 OU.
And it is Pittsburgh as the small home dog getting that point and a half. The Steelers are 2-9 OU as a home dog.
Before their bye, Pittsburgh lost to Philadelphia 35-13. The Steelers are 0-7 OU since October 23, 2016 coming off a non-season opening loss by at least 13 points.
Pittsburgh does tend to bounce back defensively after a bad game. The Steelers are 0-4 OU since December when they allowed 30+ points last game.
Pittsburgh did have 34:18 time of possession in that big loss. The Steelers are 1-7 OU since 2012 coming off a loss where they had at least 34 minutes time of possession.
Even that and their offense in general was buoyed by an unsustainable 4-of-4 on fourth downs. Teams that converted at least three fourth downs last game are 87-124 OU.
New Orleans meanwhile had a mere 22:13 time of possession on Monday night. The Saints are 0-6 OU since 2021 when they had less than 27 minutes time of possession last game.
New Orleans lost 27-13 in that game where a mere 114 total plays were run. Since 2013, teams coming off a game where no more than 116 total plays were run are 179-222 OU.
New Orleans fell 9.25 points short of their team total in that game after five straight games where they met or exceeded the team total. Teams that scored more than eight points fewer than expected last game after scoring as many or more points than expected in the three prior games are 124-165 OU.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: PITTSBURGH 17, New Orleans 16
NFL 2022-11-13 1:05 PM : Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears
PICK: Detroit Lions 3 J175L1123 units
4.5-STAR Detroit over CHICAGO – No team in Killersports.com database history had run the ball for 200+ yards for four straight games until the Bears the past 4 weeks. They ran for at least 238 yards in all four of those games and still managed to win just 2 of them. Their rushing attack is not going to provide that kind of success week after week and there is still not a ton else to rely on.
The Lions defense really stepped up last week in a 15-9 upset win over the Packers. Teams off a win as a dog that scored no more than 17 points are 254-196 ATS.
They had not allowed fewer than 24 points in any other game this season. Teams that allowed 14 fewer points last game than they had in any of the previous three games are 202-158 ATS.
Part of that defense effort was holding Green Bay on fourth downs. Teams that got stops on at least 3 fourth down attempts last game are 114-88 ATS.
That compared to the Bears defense that has allowed 84 points over their last two games. Teams that have allowed at least 76 combined points their past two games since 2009 are 49-74 ATS.
Both of those games went over the total by at least 21 points. Teams are 46-58 ATS when their last two games both went over the total by at least 20 points.
Last week, Chicago lost to Miami, 35-32. The Bears are 0-5 ATS since 2019 when they allowed 35-48 points last game.
Despite scoring 32 points, Chicago only threw for 123 yards in that game. The Bears are 1-7 ATS since November 17, 2019 when they threw for less than 150 yards last game.
But this is a change in expectations for Chicago. They have not been favored in any of their last 6 games. Teams that are favored after at least 3 straight games as underdogs are a play against.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Detroit by 7
NFL 2022-11-13 8:25 PM : Los Angeles Chargers vs San Francisco 49ers
PICK: Los Angeles Chargers 7 J175L1123 units
4-STAR La Chargers over SAN FRANCISCO – The Chargers have been an underdog by more 4 points once in the past 2 season (and they won that game outright). While banged up the Chargers have too strong of a core still to warrant this kind of line.
In fact, Los Angeles has been favored in each of their last six games. Teams when the line is more than 9 points higher than the total in any of a teams last three games (dating back to last season) are 164-132 ATS.
And San Francisco has not been that great as a home favorite for some time. The 49ers are 1-10-1 ATS as a home favorite coming off a game where they were not more than a point favorite.
Los Angeles is coming off a 20-17 win over Atlanta last week. They scored at least six points less than expected last game. The Chargers are 8-0 ATS since January 2014 as a dog coming off a win where they scored less points than expected.
And LA was able to overcome committing two turnovers in that game. The Chargers are 7-1 ATS since September 26, 2021 when they committed at least 2 turnovers last game.
San Francisco defeated the Rams in their last game 31-14. They ran the ball 23 times in that winning effort. Teams coming off a win by more than seven points where they rushed the ball no more than 23 times are a play against.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: LA Chargers 24, SAN FRANCISCO 23
NFL 2022-11-13 1:05 PM : Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs
PICK: Jacksonville Jaguars 10 J175L1123 units
4-STAR Jacksonville over KANSAS CITY – Jacksonville has played better than their record this season and part of that is they just do not get blown out. This team has not lost by more than 8 points once this season. Kansas City was unable to blow out Tennessee last week and we don’t see this going differently.
Jacksonville is the road dog here after three straight home games. Road dog coming off three straight home games are 97-77 ATS
And after this game Jacksonville has a bye before another home game. Teams in at least week eight of the season heading into a regular season bye are 182-141 ATS.
And like Tennessee, Jacksonville can run the ball. They are seventh in the league with 147 yards per game. Teams in game 10 of the season and beyond who are averaging at least 25 rushing yards per game more than league average but are below .500 on the season are 113-85 ATS.
Kansas City has won two straight games but have trailed by at least 8 points in both games. Teams coming off back-to-back wins where they trailed by 7+ points each game are 127-164 ATS.
And KC has thrown for more than 400 yards in each of those games. Teams which combined for at least 740 passing yards their last two games are 56-87 ATS.
They defeated Tennessee in overtime last week 20-17. That came in a game they were 14-point favorites. The Chiefs are 0-13 ATS when they are not more than an 11-point favorite coming off a win where they failed to cover by at least 5 points
Tennessee was just 5-of-16 throwing the ball in that game. Since 2010, teams coming off a game where they allowed less than 48% of their opponents passes completed are 183-218 ATS.
KC is again a high favorite in this game with a total of 51. The Chiefs are 1-10 ATS since November 2020 as a favorite of at least 7 points when the total is over 48
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: KANSAS CITY 27, Jacksonville 24
NFL 2022-11-13 1:05 PM : New Orleans Saints vs Pittsburgh Steelers
PICK: Under 40 J175L1123 units
4.5-STAR New Orleans and Pittsburgh Under – This game is expected to be competitive for Pittsburgh and there is just not much of a chance that happens in a high scoring game. This team has not scored more than 20 points in 7 games. With Kenny Pickett under center if they do stay close that is all the more reason to be conservative.
This is a low total game with the line just 1.5 in this matchup. When the line is within two of pick and the total is at least three points lower than the league average total are 131-196 OU.
And it is Pittsburgh as the small home dog getting that point and a half. The Steelers are 2-9 OU as a home dog.
Before their bye, Pittsburgh lost to Philadelphia 35-13. The Steelers are 0-7 OU since October 23, 2016 coming off a non-season opening loss by at least 13 points.
Pittsburgh does tend to bounce back defensively after a bad game. The Steelers are 0-4 OU since December when they allowed 30+ points last game.
Pittsburgh did have 34:18 time of possession in that big loss. The Steelers are 1-7 OU since 2012 coming off a loss where they had at least 34 minutes time of possession.
Even that and their offense in general was buoyed by an unsustainable 4-of-4 on fourth downs. Teams that converted at least three fourth downs last game are 87-124 OU.
New Orleans meanwhile had a mere 22:13 time of possession on Monday night. The Saints are 0-6 OU since 2021 when they had less than 27 minutes time of possession last game.
New Orleans lost 27-13 in that game where a mere 114 total plays were run. Since 2013, teams coming off a game where no more than 116 total plays were run are 179-222 OU.
New Orleans fell 9.25 points short of their team total in that game after five straight games where they met or exceeded the team total. Teams that scored more than eight points fewer than expected last game after scoring as many or more points than expected in the three prior games are 124-165 OU.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: PITTSBURGH 17, New Orleans 16
NFL 2022-11-13 1:05 PM : Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears
PICK: Detroit Lions 3 J175L1123 units
4.5-STAR Detroit over CHICAGO – No team in Killersports.com database history had run the ball for 200+ yards for four straight games until the Bears the past 4 weeks. They ran for at least 238 yards in all four of those games and still managed to win just 2 of them. Their rushing attack is not going to provide that kind of success week after week and there is still not a ton else to rely on.
The Lions defense really stepped up last week in a 15-9 upset win over the Packers. Teams off a win as a dog that scored no more than 17 points are 254-196 ATS.
They had not allowed fewer than 24 points in any other game this season. Teams that allowed 14 fewer points last game than they had in any of the previous three games are 202-158 ATS.
Part of that defense effort was holding Green Bay on fourth downs. Teams that got stops on at least 3 fourth down attempts last game are 114-88 ATS.
That compared to the Bears defense that has allowed 84 points over their last two games. Teams that have allowed at least 76 combined points their past two games since 2009 are 49-74 ATS.
Both of those games went over the total by at least 21 points. Teams are 46-58 ATS when their last two games both went over the total by at least 20 points.
Last week, Chicago lost to Miami, 35-32. The Bears are 0-5 ATS since 2019 when they allowed 35-48 points last game.
Despite scoring 32 points, Chicago only threw for 123 yards in that game. The Bears are 1-7 ATS since November 17, 2019 when they threw for less than 150 yards last game.
But this is a change in expectations for Chicago. They have not been favored in any of their last 6 games. Teams that are favored after at least 3 straight games as underdogs are a play against.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Detroit by 7
NFL 2022-11-13 8:25 PM : Los Angeles Chargers vs San Francisco 49ers
PICK: Los Angeles Chargers 7 J175L1123 units
4-STAR La Chargers over SAN FRANCISCO – The Chargers have been an underdog by more 4 points once in the past 2 season (and they won that game outright). While banged up the Chargers have too strong of a core still to warrant this kind of line.
In fact, Los Angeles has been favored in each of their last six games. Teams when the line is more than 9 points higher than the total in any of a teams last three games (dating back to last season) are 164-132 ATS.
And San Francisco has not been that great as a home favorite for some time. The 49ers are 1-10-1 ATS as a home favorite coming off a game where they were not more than a point favorite.
Los Angeles is coming off a 20-17 win over Atlanta last week. They scored at least six points less than expected last game. The Chargers are 8-0 ATS since January 2014 as a dog coming off a win where they scored less points than expected.
And LA was able to overcome committing two turnovers in that game. The Chargers are 7-1 ATS since September 26, 2021 when they committed at least 2 turnovers last game.
San Francisco defeated the Rams in their last game 31-14. They ran the ball 23 times in that winning effort. Teams coming off a win by more than seven points where they rushed the ball no more than 23 times are a play against.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: LA Chargers 24, SAN FRANCISCO 23
Comment