Wednesday 11/9/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Claiming - 7.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $12000 Class Rating: 59

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000. LOUISIANA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 TRINITY HOPE 5/2
# 6 LAST DESTINY 6/1
# 5 MONGOLIAN DIAMOND 8/1

TRINITY HOPE is my choice. Last time out, this filly faced a stronger field. Could beat this group of horses in this race given the 62 Equibase speed fig posted in her last outing. Has very good Equibase Class Figures relative to this group of horses in this race - worth a look. MONGOLIAN DIAMOND - Looks competitive against this group of animals and ought to be one of the leaders. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Gibson running at this distance are the best in this group.

[ConleyPicks]

AAA Sports

1* FREE PLAY Canadiens+140.


A good spot wager here on Montreal. Great value in my opinion on the undervalued home underdog. Vancouver is probably the better team, but it's still just 4-6-2-1 this year. Off a 6-4 win at Ottawa last night, fatigue is a factor on Wednesday. The Habs are off a 3-2 shootout win in Detroit last night. Fatigue's a bit less of a factor for the home side in this situation. With stretch of daunting upcoming road games at Toronto, Boston and Buffalo, I believe Vancouver comes out flat here and gets caught looking ahead; consider the Habs on Wednesday night!
AAA Sports

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Penn National - Race #6 - Post: 8:16pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $28,000 Class Rating: 85

Rating:

#7 TWEET AWAY ROBIN (ML=9/2)
#5 MOONCHILD (ML=3/1)
#6 MY DIXIE LASS (ML=4/1)
#9 ONE MORE KELLY (ML=6/1)
#1 WILL TAKE ROSES (ML=6/1)


TWEET AWAY ROBIN - I think Penn National players know a good thing when they see the jockey/trainer pair of Barbosa and McMahon. Their win pct together has been wonderful. Believe in this horse. No other viable speed gives this horse a strong chance at the winner's circle. MOONCHILD - This jockey/conditioner duo has been producing a high win percent, right around 30. MY DIXIE LASS - This filly's last speed fig garnered on Oct 22nd is tops in last race speed ratings. ONE MORE KELLY - Faced tougher last out at Presque Isle Downs. Based on class figures, this is a weaker group, so I will put this horse on my list of strong contenders. Earnings per start (EPS) is something that I think can be a very key handicapping aspect. This horse is ranked at the very top in this group. WILL TAKE ROSES - This filly is in first-rate condition right now. Ended up third last out and comes back soon.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 VILLAREGGIA (ML=5/1),

VILLAREGGIA - Would have to move up off that fourth place finish last time out to make an impact here.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - MY DIXIE LASS - This mount has recorded gains in her speed figures over her last two events. Don't overlook this filly in your gambling.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#7 TWEET AWAY ROBIN is going to be the play if we are getting 5/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[5,7] with [5,6,7] with [1,5,6,7,9] with [1,5,6,7,9] Total Cost: $24

[ConleyPicks]

Sean Murphy

Wednesday NBA Free play. My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Houston at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.


We cashed our free play on the Rockets in their outright underdog victory in Orlando on Monday but I won't hesitate to go the other way and fade Houston as it stays on the road to face the Raptors in Toronto on Wednesday. Houston quite simply shot the lights out in that victory over the Magic. The Rockets haven't had much margin for error offensively as they've been playing at a slower pace than we're accustomed to seeing, getting off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in each of their last five games. Now they'll face a stingy Raptors squad that has limited nine of its 11 opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts this season. On the flip side, we've seen the Raptors pick up the pace offensively, hoisting up 92, 106, 88, 103 and 85 FG attempts over their last five contests. That fast pace should work in their favor here as the Rockets have been sieve-like defensively, yielding 48, 45, 37, 41, 49 and 45 made field goals to their opponents over their last six games. In fact, eight of Houston's 11 opponents this season have knocked down 44+ field goals. Note that the Rockets are just 22-41 ATS in their last 63 games following an ATS win, which is the situation they're in tonight. Take Toronto.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $17300 Class Rating: 80

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 9 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $11,000, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $9,000 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 THE MET 3/1
# 4 PRODUCTION CREDIT 2/1
# 3 CAPE COD GEM 6/1

My selection here is THE MET. This colt looks good for this race since Englehart has a strong win percent with horses going this distance. He has very good class ratings, averaging 81, and has to be given a chance in this event. Is worth looking at and may be a bet - strong speed figs (67 average) at today's distance and surface lately. PRODUCTION CREDIT - He should be carefully examined given the very strong speed figs. Looks solid versus this group of animals and will probably be one of the early speedsters. CAPE COD GEM - Has been running quite well lately and will almost certainly be close to the lead early on. Should be carefully examined in this race if only for the respectable speed figure recorded in the last outing.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Mountaineer Park - Race #5 - Post: 8:40pm - Claiming - 2.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,000 Class Rating: 80

Rating:

#3 PERFECT GENTLEMAN (ML=3/1)
#8 SHACKLESON (ML=5/1)


PERFECT GENTLEMAN - To play a racer off morning activity, you have to know when to tell if a horse is fit. The fact that this gelding worked recently at longer distance is a positive angle. Faced tougher in the last race at Fort Erie. Based on class ratings, this is a weaker bunch, so I will put this horse on my list of probable winners in this race. This gelding is in first-rate form right now. Ran third last race out and comes back rapidly. SHACKLESON - I have to like this gelding's chances at the shorter distance. I really like it when a horse's last workout is at the same distance or longer than today's race like this one's is. Entered last at Mountaineer Park in a race with a class figure of 87. Dropping considerably in class rating today puts him in a solid position in this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 REJUVENATE (ML=5/2), #4 BROTHER SKYE (ML=4/1), #7 LAKI LIO (ML=9/2),

REJUVENATE - Speed kills. Plenty of early speed in this affair compromises this horse's dreams at winning. Hasn't raced or had any works since Oct 17th. Not much value on this favorite. Unlikely that the speed fig he notched on October 17th will hold up in this race. BROTHER SKYE - Speed kills. Plenty of early zip in this race compromises this animal's hopes. This gelding didn't do much for me last time out of the box. LAKI LIO - All kinds of crazy speed signed up for this race. Almost no chance for this early speedball. Should be difficult for this thoroughbred to beat this field off of that last speed figure. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class rating, so put him on the possibly overvalued equines list.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #3 PERFECT GENTLEMAN to win if you can get at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[ConleyPicks]

Stephen Nover

Free Play: Monmouth+20 1/2

Monmouth is making the switch from the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference to the Colonial Athletic Association this season. The Hawks are in rebuild mode. I don't expect them to be very good.
However, I expect Seton Hall to go through some early growing pains, too, as the Pirates begin the Shaheen Holloway era after 12 years under Kevin Willard.
The Pirates are without their three top scorers from last season. They also are dealing with some injuries. It's going to take time for the Pirates to mesh and for Holloway to figure out the best rotation. This is an easy spot for him to experiment.
I don't believe the Pirates will win by this amount of points. Monmouth coach King Rice is good friends with Holloway. So Holloway probably won't look to embarrass his buddy by running up a score if things should get out of hand.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Churchill Downs

11/09/22, CD, Race 4, 2.30 ET
11/09/22,CD,4,6F [Dirt] 1:07:03 CLAIMING. Purse $26,000 (plus up to $3,900 KTDF - Kentucky TB Devt Fund). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 122 lbs. Non-winners Of Two Races Since September 9 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $8,000 (Races Where Entered For $6,250 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	5	Sand Mountain	8/1	Hughes C	Schlenk Jada C.	SFL	214	30.37	1.32/$1
096.4272	4	Forevamo	6/1	Asmussen K J	Asmussen Steven M.		214	30.37	1.32/$1
095.8880	7	Big Bella Brown	8/1	Riquelme J	Foley Gregory D.		451	30.38	1.13/$1
095.7478	6	Cool Runnings	9/2	Aragon R	Evans II Michael		451	30.38	1.13/$1
094.9055	9	Drena's Star	6/1	Court J K	Duncan Trisha Vance	TE	451	30.38	1.13/$1
094.7418	8	Released	5/1	Gaffalione T	Meyers Shane	J	214	30.37	1.32/$1
093.9628	1	Gemo Rain	8/1	Morales E	Garcia Genaro		214	30.37	1.32/$1
092.9279	2	Chief Howcome	15/1	Gilligan J	Sanner Daniel E.		214	30.37	1.32/$1
092.1823	10	Higher Authority	5/1	Talamo J	Vance Thomas D.		214	30.37	1.32/$1
090.2581	3	Feeling It	20/1	Sherman A	Sherman Justin	W	214	30.37	1.32/$1
089.2963	11	Eli	20/1	Bejarano R	Macias Adolfo	C	214	30.37	1.32/$1

Top rated horse With "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 27.47, ROI 0.72/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -3.5728
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Lasix Today -with-
[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Distance Is Not Equal To Today

[ConleyPicks]

Brandon Lee

Wednesday's Free NBA Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves +2
I'll take my chances with the Timberwolves as a 2-point home dog against the Suns tonight. I like the rematch angle for Minnesota in this one. As these two teams played in Phoenix a little over a week ago and the Suns won that game 116-107 as a 3.5-point favorite.
That line suggest that Phoenix should actually be a dog on the road in the rematch, yet they are favored by 2. Only a 1.5-point adjustment for switching venues.
Suns are also down a key contributor in Cameron Johnson, torched Minnesota in that previous meeting, scoring a season high 29 (previous high was 19) points, in large part due to going 7 of 11 (64%) from behind the 3-point line.
I know the Timberwolves come in having lost 4 of their last 5, but it's not been the easiest schedule during this stretch. They did play horribly in their last game, losing 107-120 at home to the Knicks. This has all the makings of a get right game. Give me Minnesota +2!

[ConleyPicks]

Matt Fargo

This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS PELICANS-1 for our Wednesday Free Play.

New Orleans is coming off a bad loss at Indiana as it fell by seven points and was really never in the game after the half and it was basically a game that was lost from behind the arc as the Pacers made eight more three-pointers as the overall shooting percentage was pretty much dead even. This was the second straight loss for the Pelicans as they are now 5-5 and in need of a big win. Three of its five losses have come in overtime by a combined seven points and the Pelicans have followed up the three previous losses before the Indiana game with wins next time out and this is another get well game. The offense remains potent as they are No. 1 in scoring and No. 2 in shooting percentage and they have been strong down low, being ranked No. 2 in points in the paint. The value is here with their recent 0-4 ATS stretch. Chicago snapped a two-game slide with a win over Toronto to move to 6-6 and this is a hard team to trust as the Bulls have been all over the place. They are middle of the league on both sides which matches their record and the absence of Lonzo Ball has been significant as while he is not a player to put up elite numbers, he kept this team together from a point guard perspective. Chicago is 4-2 at home with the losses to Philadelphia and Cleveland and the Pelicans are certainly in that category. Here, we play on road favorites after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. This situation is 109-65 ATS (62.6 percent) over the last five seasons. Play (551) New Orleans Pelicans

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Mike Lundin

Mike's Lakers/Clippers NBA Free Pick
The under is 16-4-2 in Lakers last 22 vs. a team with a winning straight up record and 21-8-1 in Clippers last 30 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
FREE PICK ON UNDER.

[ConleyPicks]

Bobby Conn

1* Free Play on Cavs/Kings under 226 1/2 -110

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Kevin Dolan

Play: AS Roma +103

[ConleyPicks]

Tony Mejia

Play: Buffalo +1.0 (-110)

[ConleyPicks]

Andy Lang

Play: Jamal Murray Points + Assists + Rebounds Over 26.5 (-120)