Thursday 11/10/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Woodbine - Race #1
Picks Notes
#6 LET’S RUN TWO (5-2) Gave way to deep closers at 6-1/2F, can maximize her speed in this spot.
#1 LOAD ABROAD (2-1) Stalked fast pace in 4-path, got first run on winner, held second at 5-1/2F.
#7 CARLA’S HONOR (6-1) Starts fresh, winless at Woodbine, but recent races better than they look.
Race Summary LET’S RUN TWO ‘retreated’ on the lead in a longer sprint as the favorite. But she runs for the cheapest tag of her career and will take some catching despite taking the blinkers off in this spot. Bet to win and place and play 6-1 and 6-7 exactas.

Woodbine - Race #2
Picks Notes
#10 SPEED CHESS (3-1) Month off and another class drop a concern, but she should sit perfect trip.
#8 SHE’S LOADED (15-1) Advanced some while wide on final turn, wilted in lane, adds blinkers.
#4 WANT TO GO DANCING (4-1) Tracked dueling leaders, led, got caught by deep closer.
Race Summary SPEED CHESS angled inside of a tiring rival in the stretch and got past the favorite to finish second in a 6F sprint at Presque Isle Downs. She projects an ideal stalking trip and sheds 5 pounds with Jones getting the call. Play a 4-8-10 exacta box.

Woodbine - Race #7
Picks Notes
#1 CHARLOTTE’S SILVER (1 Steps up in top form, gets ideal set-up, use on all gimmick wagers.
#5 ARTFUL BALLERINA (2-1) Chased torrid pace while 6-wide against better in 5F main track sprint two back.
#6 SUGAR IS GOLDEN (8-1) Shook duel, opened up, got caught, gets in light-weighted.
Race Summary The pace will be hot and that suits longshot CHARLOTTE’S SILVER just fine in her current form. She pulled away to a 20-1 upset on the turf two starts back, then loomed boldly while 4-wide before flattening out in a 7F try, earning her top speed figure on the all-weather surface. Bet to win and place.

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Churchill Downs

11/10/22, CD, Race 1, 1.00 ET
11/10/22,CD,1,1 1/16M [Dirt] 1:41:00 CLAIMING. Purse $68,000 (plus up to $10,200 KTDF - Kentucky TB Devt Fund). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. Weight, 122 lbs. Non-winners Of Two Races At A Mile Or Over Since September 10 Allowed 2 lbs. Such A Race Since Then Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $40,000 (Races Where Entered For $32,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	4	Test Pilot	6/1	Court J K	Padilla Tim P.	SFL	451	30.38	1.13/$1
096.6490	5	Mugsy Malone	7/2	Gaffalione T	D'Angelo Jose Francisc	JT	214	30.37	1.32/$1
095.2717	3	Red Knobs	8/5	Arrieta F	Diodoro Robertino	E	214	30.37	1.32/$1
092.0223	2	Totalizer	5/2	Saez L	Maker Michael J.		214	30.37	1.32/$1
091.6085	6	Ready Pursuit	15/1	Canuto T	Antonuik Jerry	W	214	30.37	1.32/$1
091.5711	1	Maximum Impact	6/1	Bejarano R	Cash Norman L.	C	451	30.38	1.13/$1

Top rated horse With "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 27.47, ROI 0.72/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -3.3510
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[All Dirt] Lasix Today

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Charles Town - Race #5 - Post: 8:53pm - Starter Allowance - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 89

Rating:

#2 TIZ THE REASON (ML=3/1)


TIZ THE REASON - Have to like the early speed on this one. No one else may even be close. A filly like this one, almost always in the money, usually makes an excellent trifecta key horse. This filly is in good condition. Ended up second on October 12th. This bullring favors speedy front running horses breaking from the inside. Seeing as this is what we have with this horse, I'm going to take a serious look at this one.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 VALID REASON (ML=3/5), #1 UNCANNY (ML=8/1),

VALID REASON - I don't normally play a probable favorite that hasn't been to the track in the last 3 weeks. Garnered a run-of-the-mill fig last out in a Starter Allowance race on October 12th. Doubtful to see an improved performance off of that rating. UNCANNY - I don't like the case that bandages were new equipment on Oct 12th. Nice race on October 12th at Charles Town, but the fact that there are no workouts since has to make one a little worried.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - TIZ THE REASON - My analysis says it usually takes a thoroughbred 1 - 2 races after a layoff to get back into shape. That's just what we have here, so I expect a solid race for this horse.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 TIZ THE REASON is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	2 with [1,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horseshoe Indianapolis

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $34000 Class Rating: 70

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 1 MILE AND 70 YARDS ON THE MAIN TRACK.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 OH POLLYANNA 3/1
# 6 ROMAN FLAME 7/2
# 10 TAMARAC LADY 20/1

My choice here is OH POLLYANNA. Is worth taking a close look at and may be a bet - strong Equibase Speed Figures (64 average) at today's distance and surface as of late. She has been running well lately while recording strong Speed Figures. Make a note that this entrant runs on Lasix today. ROMAN FLAME - Has been racing soundly and has among the most respectable speed in the race for today's distance. Shows signs of the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 61 speed figure which is one of the top in this group. TAMARAC LADY - Haran has her trained strongly to break swiftly out of the starting gate.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Churchill Downs - Race #5 - Post: 3:01pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $31,000 Class Rating: 76

Rating:

#1 MISS MARPLE (ML=8/1)
#10 EXPECT THE BOSS (ML=8/1)
#2 MEDWAY QUEEN (ML=12/1)
#11 PONTIFFANY (ML=8/1)


MISS MARPLE - Likes to go to the front and the fact that today is a shorter trip should be advantageous. EXPECT THE BOSS - Lets try to beat the favorites with this filly. Just missed last out, but ran a respectable race. This filly should be in fine condition, this far into her form cycle. Horse has improved at least two Equibase speed figure points in last 2 races. I look for that trend to continue right here. MEDWAY QUEEN - This jock and handler's animals have been generating a positive return on investment. Just missed hitting the board on October 23rd at Hawthorne. With pretty good odds in this field, she has my interest. PONTIFFANY - My handicapping know-how tells me to watch out for this horse in this race

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 ARLYNE'S CROWN (ML=3/1), #8 SOCIAL MANDATE (ML=5/1), #9 DILMUNIA (ML=6/1),

ARLYNE'S CROWN - Hard to recommend any equine with dropping speed figs of 80/76/56. This questionable contender didn't go to the front end and didn't close any ground in the homestretch last time she ran. SOCIAL MANDATE - Just cannot play this horse. Didn't show me anything positive in the last race or on Oct 8th. DILMUNIA - Difficult to invest in this mount in today's event. Make her show you something in a sprint event before you wager on her in a race of 6 furlongs.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#1 MISS MARPLE is the play if we get odds of 4/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,10] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero

Camarero - Race 3	Pick 5 (3-7) / Exacta / Trifecta / Daily Double 3-4
Claiming $4,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 39 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 3:35P
FOR NATIVE FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 10 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 120 LBS. CLASIFI. $4,000 Y DEBUTANTES ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * INNOVADORA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. SORPRESIVA: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designatio n or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. LIBERTADORA: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. ROSANI O.: Hors e ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
6	INNOVADORA	2/1	9/2
2	SORPRESIVA	15/1	5/1
3	LIBERTADORA	3/1	7/1
5	ROSANI O.	15/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	INNOVADORA	6	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	35	37	36.6	24.2	20.2
3	LIBERTADORA	3	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	39	16	25.6	25.2	19.2
5	ROSANI O.	5	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	46	20	20.6	28.0	20.5
2	SORPRESIVA	2	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	53	31	10.4	24.8	18.8
4	PROMOVIDA	4	4/1	Alternator/Non-contender	43	16	14.8	14.6	6.6
1	SHEPIN	1	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	34	8	0.0	0.0	0.0

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Evangeline Downs

Evangeline Downs - Race 6	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta
Claiming $20,000 • 350 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 7:40P
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * I KISS DA GIRLS: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. SHEZA LOTO TICKET: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style de signation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. DASHIN AND ZOOMIN: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
5	I KISS DA GIRLS	9/5	7/2
3	SHEZA LOTO TICKET	5/2	5/1
1	DASHIN AND ZOOMIN	9/2	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	DASHIN AND ZOOMIN	1	9/2	Average	80	71	5.9	0.0	0.0
2	CARTERS CHICAWA	2	5/1	Average	75	62	5.7	0.0	0.0
3	SHEZA LOTO TICKET	3	5/2	Fast	77	74	1.1	0.0	0.0
4	CW QUICK BRIDE	4	12/1	Slow	68	58	7.9	0.0	0.0
5	I KISS DA GIRLS	5	9/5	Average	87	79	5.1	0.0	0.0
6	PLAY SOME BLUES	6	8/1	Average	75	67	4.0	0.0	0.0
7	SIR WILLIAM TERRY	7	10/1	Average	71	62	4.7	0.0	0.0

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Woodbine

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $31900 Class Rating: 88

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 10 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500, IF FOR $7,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 SHAKOO MAKOO 7/2
# 7 EXECUTIVE SIGHT 6/1
# 1 QIAN B C 2/1

SHAKOO MAKOO is my choice. Has strong front-end speed and will most likely fare admirably versus this group. Has to be given consideration - I like the numbers from the last race. He has garnered very strong numbers under today's conditions and ought to fare well versus this group of animals. EXECUTIVE SIGHT - With a nice class figure average of 95, has one of the most competitive class advantages in this field. With a strong 88 average speed rating at the distance, seems well suited for today's affair. QIAN B C - Ought to be considered based on the respectable speed figure recorded in the last contest.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Dover Downs

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 8
5	5	FAST AS THE WIND	8/1	Dunn, Dexter - 22	567.55
1	1	DOUBLE DECEIVER	5/2	Miller, David - 16	560.65
6	6	KING OF THE NORTH	2/1	Macdonald, Mark - 11	541.98
3	3	TEMPORAL HANOVER	6/1	Melander, Mattias - 20	541.69
7	7	SLAY	7/2	Bongiorno, Joe - 16	537.72
2	2	B A SUPERHERO	15/1	Sears, Brian - 19	537.03
8	8	POUR MEA DOUBLE	12/1	Tetrick, Tim - 24	527.31
4	4	KEG STAND	15/1	Gingras, Yannick - 21	502.57

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Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Monticello Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 8
2	2	ASTOR	5/2	Merton, Michael - 18	470.72
1	1	SPORTY REDHOT	7/2	Chindano, Joseph Jr - 18	429.92
7	7	HAPPY CAMPER	6/1	Taggart, Jim Jr - 18	411.18
3	3	GYPSY LEATHER	3/1	Moeykens, Adam - 4	400.79
4	4	HARD WORKIN' MAN	8/1	Dibenedetto, Kyle - 9	398.73
6	6	UNCLE QWACKERS	4/1	Parker, Brandon - 15	393.19
5	5	JOE SAYS GO	10/1	Aldrich, Bruce Jr - 16	377.11

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Flamboro Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Post: 8:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 67 - Purse:$5400 - FILLIES & MARES - CLAIMING $7000.

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 3 JMR MACH MEL 2/1
# 1 SOUTHERN MEMORIES 5/2
# 2 BRIENNE THE BEAUTY 3/1

JMR MACH MEL could be our best wagering option in this race. Has nice speed ratings and quite possibly has to be thought of for a wager here. It's often dangerous to consider on class alone, but this mare has among the top class rankings of the field. Is a strong win contender given the 70 speed figure from her most recent gathering. SOUTHERN MEMORIES - Take a look at this interesting entrant's avg speed number of 67 and compare to today's class rating. Looks like a great play. With a very good 66 TrackMaster Speed Rating last time out, will unquestionably be a factor in this race. BRIENNE THE BEAUTY - Worth considering this time if only for the good TrackMaster Speed Rating achieved in the most recent affair.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Rosecroft Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Post: 7:35 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 75 - Purse:$5500 - MARYLAND PREFERRED NW $1,500 LAST 4 STARTS AE: CLAIMING $5,000 W/A ROSECROFT TRACKMAN SELECTIONS: 8-3-2-7

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 6 BLUEJEANSNREDWINGS 10/1
# 8 ALWAYS B MAGIC 5/2
# 7 HI SIR 3/1

BLUEJEANSNREDWINGS most definitely is tough to overlook as the contender to beat in this contest and is a really strong value wager given the line. Horoscope said take a chance today, this contender is as good as any to take a shot with. ALWAYS B MAGIC - He's battling in good form, recording substantial speed figs. An excellent selection. This gelding has been going to post against some of the most competitive company in this grouping most recently. HI SIR - His 76 average has this gelding among the most compelling speed ratings in this one. The consortium noted a formidable showing out of this standardbred last time. Looking for a repeat effort of that to take the whole enchilada.

[ConleyPicks]

Free play from Mike Wynn

Free Pick: CBB Southern Illinois +8 1/2 over Oklahoma St

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Free play from Totals4U

Thursday's Free Selection: North Dakota State Bison/Kansas Jayhawks over 142

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Free play from #1 Sports

Thursday's Free Play: Western Carolina Catamounts + 20 1/2