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Scott Spreitzer:
4* ARK- ROCK
4* UCLA
3* DEN
3* STAN
3* S.D.
4* ARK- ROCK
4* UCLA
3* DEN
3* STAN
3* S.D.
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Re: 2-19-09
BURNS NCAA
Basketball (NCAA)
UCLA
Game: Washington vs. UCLA Game Time: 2/19/2009 11:00:00 PM Prediction: UCLA Reason: I'm laying the points with UCLA. I respect the Huskies and I successfully played on them when they defeated the Bruins a few weeks ago. However, that was at Washington. With tonight's game being played at Pauley Pavilion, I expect the revenge-minded and highly motivated Bruins to have the advantage. Yes, the Bruins have lost two in a row. However, those games were both on the road and they haven't lost three games in a row since January 2005. In their last game here, the Bruins destroyed Notre Dame, winning by a score of 89-63. Looking at their conference home games and we find that the Bruins beat USC by 16, beat Stanford by 34, beat Cal by 15 and beat Arizona by 23. They're 47-3 their last 50 games here and 21-1 their last 22 against the Huskies here. While the Huskies are 0-5 SU/ATS the last five times that they were road underdogs in the 6.5 to nine range, the Bruins are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS the last four times that they were home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. I expect them to improve on those numbers as they bounce back and continue their homecourt dominance in this series. *Personal Favorite
CHARLOTTE
Game: Xavier vs. Charlotte Game Time: 2/19/2009 7:00:00 PM Prediction: Charlotte Reason: I'm taking the points with CHARLOTTE. The Musketeers won big (69-47) when these teams met a few weeks ago. However, that was at Xavier while today's game will be played at Charlotte. That's significant, as Xavier has lost back to back road games while Charlotte has won four of its last five home games, including back to back convincing double-digit victories here, one of them against Dayton. When these clubs faced each other on January 28, the 49ers were banged up and struggling. They've since gotten starting forward An'Juan Wilderness back and are playing with a much higher level of confidence. The play of point guard DiJuan Harris, who has been getting the entire team involved, has really sparked the team of late. Indeed, Harris has a whopping 56 assists in his past five games. While they admittedly haven't had much success against Xavier, the 49'ers have fared very well in the "revenge" role the past few seasons. During that stretch, they've gone a profitable 9-5-1 ATS when attempting to avenge an earlier loss, including a 2-0 ATS mark if that loss was by greater than 20 points. While I respect the Musketeers, I also know that they can be beaten and I won't be shocked to see it happen here. I successfully played against the Musketeers in their loss at Duquesne. The very next night I successfully played on Charlotte over Dayton, so I also know the 49'ers are capable of defeating a quality team. The 49'ers played the Musketeers very tough here last season, losing by two points as 5-point underdogs. Look for them to give their guests all they can handle once again, earning at least another cover. *TV GOMComment
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Re: 2-19-09
BURNS NBA
Basketball (NBA)
UNDER celts/jazz
I'm playing on Boston and Utah to finish UNDER the total. These teams played on Boston back in mid-December. That game was a bit of a tough beat for those who bet the 'under' just before gametime. That's because the number was bet down and closed at 190.5. The teams played three low-scoring quarters before a 57-point fourth quarter caused the final combined score to finish at 191, half a point above the closing number. The Jazz have been playing some high-scoring games lately. While those results have helped keep today's number generously high, it should be noted that those games were coming against high-scoring and/or defensively-challenged teams like the Kings, Lakers, Warriors and Grizzlies. It should also be noted that the Jazz got Andrei Kirilenko back last game, which is noteworthy as Kirilenko is an excellent defender and his return makes the Jazz stronger on that side of the ball. Counting the 12/15 result as an 'over,' the Celtics have seen 18 of 28 home games finish above the total. However, it's been a different story when the champs have played on the road. In fact, the UNDER is a profitable 19-8 (70%) in their 27 road games. Those games averaged 187.4 points, much lower than the Celtics' totals at home. With tonight's number at or above the 200 mark, that gives us plenty of room to work with. Look for the final combined score to prove much lower that most are expecting. *AnnihilatorComment
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Re: 2-19-09
Larry Ness' 20* Revenge Game of the Year-CBB (4-0 run with 'high-end' plays!)
My 20* Revenge GOY is on Stanford at 10:00 ET. As I've mentioned before, a lot of things went right for Oregon State head coach Craig Robinson following Jan 20, when his brother-in-law became the 44th President of the United States. That weekend, the Beavers won at Cal and Stanford, then returned home to win games over CS-Bakersfield and Oregon. That four-game winning streak brought them to 10-10 overall and 4-5 in the Pac 10. Pretty heady territory for a team which was just 6-25 last season, including 0-18 in Pac 10 play. However, the Beavers quickly dropped three straight games (first two at home to the Arizona schools), before edging Wash St last Saturday in Pullman, 54-52. The Beavers were somewhat 'exposed' in those three straight losses, as the team shot a collective 37.3 percent (26.4 on threes), while averaging 50.3 PPG. The Beavers hardly had an offensive resurgence in the win at Pullman (scored only 54 points) but the Beavers did make 44.7 percent of their shots. Haynes (15.2) comes of the bench and the sophomore guard is the team's lone double-digit scorer. The team's lone big man of consequence is the 6-11 Schaftenaar (9.2-3.2) and he'll be "up against it" vs Stanford's frontline. The Cardinal lost head coach Trent Johnson to LSU and the Lopez twins to the NBA (Brook averaged 19.3-8.2 and Robin 10.2-5.7). Also gone from LY's 28-win, Sweet 16 team are solid contributors Finger (5.9-4.4) and Washington (4.4-4.1). Johnny Dawkins came West from Duke (and Coach K's side) and the Cardinal opened 10-0 (weak schedule with mostly home games). The Cardinal are just 5-8 since and while this team is no threat in this year's NCAA tourney (in the unlikely event it gets a bid), Stanford is still leaps and bounds ahead of Oregon St in terms of talent plus has a HUGE revenge motive! The Cardinal were 16.5-point favorites back on Jan 24 when they fell at home to the Beavers, 77-62! Stanford allowed OSU to shoot 62.0 percent (a team averaging 59.4 PPG on the year scored 77 points), while the Cardinal made just 8-of-33 three-pointers (24.2 percent), never taking the ball to the hoop and consequently getting to the FT line just 11 times. I'm 'BETTING' that will all change tonight! PG Johnson (7.4-4.5 APG) sat out that game with an injury and his leadership was missed. He's joined in the backcourt by Goods (16.4) plus on the perimeter by 6-7 swingman Fields (12.0-6.8). Green and Brown are the backcourt reserves, combining for about 10 PPG. The 6-8 Hill (13.8-5.6) is easily the best big man on the court plus the 6-8 Owens (8.0-3.1) and the 6-10 Paul (4.7) lend depth. Stanford is off a loss this past Saturday to bitter rival Cal (now led by longtime Stanford coach, Mike Montgomery) and the Cardinal will be anxious to "take out their frustrations." This weekend trip to Oregon is the perfect 'tonic' and tonight's "revenge game" with the Beavers gives them all the motivation they'll need to get a big win. Revenge GOY 20* Stanford.
Good Luck...LarryComment
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