Thursday 11/17/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-17-2022, 12:23 AM

Horseshoe Indianapolis - November 17

November 16, 2022

HORSESHOE INDIANAPOLIS TIPS - THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 17, 2022
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 63% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:10 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	2	New Art	M Pedroza Jr.
PLACE	7-2	3	Saturn Boy	D L Parker
SHOW	12-1	7	Top Note	J D Ramos
WILD CARD	8-1	5	Premium	E Esquivel

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	4	Go for It	F De La Cruz
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	1	Larrys Lunchbox	E T Baird

* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX, 7-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/7 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX

RACE #2 $36,000 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:41 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 DOROS WISH

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	6	Doros Wish	J D Ramos
PLACE	5-2	2	Classic Max	R A Prescott
SHOW	4-1	3	A Few too Many	M Pedroza Jr.
WILD CARD	5-1	5	Akamai	E Esquivel

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	1	Caramelito	F De La Cruz
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	4	White Pigeon	S Sanjur

* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX

RACE #3 $38,500 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 5 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:12 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	8	Backyard Justice	A P Ulloa
PLACE	5-1	1	Rock the Red	S Sanjur
SHOW	7-2	9	He B Ready	M Pedroza Jr.
WILD CARD	12-1	7	Mystery Impact	J Morales

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	2	Doubledogjustice	F De La Cruz
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	10	Second to No One	E E Perez

* EXACTA: 8-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX, 9-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/8/9 BOX, 1/7/9 BOX

RACE #4 $43,000 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:43 PM ET
BEST BET: #7 BREAKUP WITH TITOS

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	7	Breakup With Titos	J D Ramos
PLACE	8-1	1	Lexi Sun	D L Parker
SHOW	9-2	2	Botox Katie	S E Bermudez
WILD CARD	3-1	9	Amazingness	M Pedroza Jr.

ALTERNATE 1	7-2	8	Express Lady	R A Prescott
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	3	Love Drunk	S Sanjur

* EXACTA: 7-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/7 BOX, 1/2/9 BOX

RACE #5 $10,000 CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:13 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	7	Nomadic Fighter	J D Ramos
PLACE	3-1	9	Ingersoll	F De La Cruz
SHOW	5-1	2	Groom Lake	S Sanjur
WILD CARD	2-1	8	Son of Grace	O Mojica

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	6	Bourbon Traffic	S E Bermudez
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	5	Sargeant Barger	R Aragon

* EXACTA: 7-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX, 2-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/7/9 BOX, 2/8/9 BOX

RACE #6 $38,500 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:45 PM ET
BEST BET: #10 D KITTEN

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	10	D Kitten	D L Parker
PLACE	4-1	3	Pumpitupjustice	J Morales
SHOW	8-1	6	Knocknerea	G Holmes
WILD CARD	5-1	4	Mean Elenita	M Pedroza Jr.

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	2	Itzforever	F De La Cruz
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	1	Dishin It Out	R Chirinos

* EXACTA: 10-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/10 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX

RACE #7 $36,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:17 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	1	Hitchpin	S E Bermudez
PLACE	3-1	9	Barn Stormer	J D Ramos
SHOW	5-1	3	Easy Operator	C Miller
WILD CARD	8-1	5	Tap Tap Comin Thru	D L Parker

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	7	Circle Indy	F De La Cruz
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	11	Whosforjustice	S Sanjur

* EXACTA: 1-9 BOX, 9-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/9 BOX, 3/5/9 BOX

RACE #8 $42,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:47 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	7	Speedy Delivery	G Holmes
PLACE	3-1	1	Smooth Justice	J D Ramos
SHOW	8-1	9	Cactus Flower	R A Prescott
WILD CARD	9-2	8	Verry Amelia	S Sanjur

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	5	Unbridled Victory	D L Parker
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	6	Trafalgar Shore	M Pedroza Jr.

* EXACTA: 7-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX, 9-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/7/9 BOX, 1/8/9 BOX

RACE #9 $17,000 MAIDEN 330 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:17 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	2	Wheelze Up	R D Pina
PLACE	3-1	11	Tm All Abord	J M Ruiz
SHOW	6-1	5	El Fulano	M Munoz
WILD CARD	3-1	9	Paradise Wagon Hcs	J M Ruiz

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	8	Mg to Fancy Macho	F Quintero
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	10	Resurrection Man	H Macias

* EXACTA: 2-11 BOX, 11-5 BOX, 5-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/11 BOX, 5/9/11 BOX

RACE #10 $19,500 ALLOWANCE 330 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:47 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	6	Fe Stone Crusher	J D Marquez
PLACE	6-1	9	Nacho Sin Tacha	F Morin
SHOW	9-2	2	Sorcerers Stone	O Macias
WILD CARD	4-1	3	Motoring Molly	F Quintero

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	1	Bv Littleduececoupe	G Rodriguez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	10	Good Time Stoli	G Vazquez-Gomez

* EXACTA: 6-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/9 BOX, 2/3/9 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-17-2022, 12:24 AM

Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - November 17

November 16, 2022

CHURCHILL DOWNS TIPS - THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 17, 2022
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $10,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:00 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	2	Lake Tahoe	J R Leparoux
PLACE	9-5	1	Desotos War	J Gilligan
SHOW	5-2	6	Hot Pastrami	E Morales
WILD CARD	6-1	4	Plemmonston	F Arrieta

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	7	Dudley	I Ayala
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	3	West Warpath	D Cannon

* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX

RACE #2 $15,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:30 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	1	Verdandi	L Saez
PLACE	5-2	3	Sweet Truffles	C J Lanerie
SHOW	12-1	9	Sweet Valeria	R Miranda
WILD CARD	3-1	6	Seiver	R Bejarano

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	8	La Chapeau	A Beschizza
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	2	Jackies Love	F Arrieta

* EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-9 BOX, 9-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/9 BOX, 3/6/9 BOX

RACE #3 $72,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:00 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	3	Shaniah	J Rocco Jr.
PLACE	6-1	5	Love of My Life	V Cheminaud
SHOW	9-5	6	Argumental	L Saez
WILD CARD	5-1	2	My My Munny	G Corrales

ALTERNATE 1	9-2	1	H. T. Xena	A Beschizza
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	4	My Dams Atitude	F Arrieta

* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX

RACE #4 $75,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:30 PM ET
BEST BET: #9 RETAINED

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-5	9	Retained	L Machado
PLACE	3-1	3	Boudin	C J Lanerie
SHOW	15-1	4	Rate Confirmation	F Geroux
WILD CARD	8-1	5	Violent River	M Murrill

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	8	Brilliant Colors	K J Asmussen
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	1	Whoop Gone	L Saez

* EXACTA: 9-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/9 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX

RACE #5 $30,000 CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:01 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	4	Iberville	J Rocco Jr.
PLACE	12-1	6	Double Thunder	A Martinez
SHOW	8-1	3	Atta Boy Anthony	T Canuto
WILD CARD	4-1	2	Classic King	C J Lanerie

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	5	Gormleys Got Game	R Gutierrez
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	8	Camp David	L Saez

* EXACTA: 4-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/6 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX

RACE #6 $32,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:31 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	7	Gray Attempt	C J Lanerie
PLACE	7-2	5	Spankhurst	F Arrieta
SHOW	3-1	6	Tango Charlie	G Corrales
WILD CARD	5-2	3	Shadow Matter	K J Asmussen

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	1	Ash Flat	M Murrill
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	2	Hooperdrivesthboat	E Morales

* EXACTA: 7-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/7 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX

RACE #7 $150,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:01 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 RELEASE MCCRAKEN

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	1	Release McCraken	G Saez
PLACE	5-2	4	Global Surprise	R Gutierrez
SHOW	4-1	5	Fight Fiercely	L Saez
WILD CARD	6-1	3	Seas of Normandy	M Murrill

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	7	Tap Dance Tango	R Santana Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	8	Chloes Dream	C J Lanerie

* EXACTA: 1-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX

RACE #8 $134,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:33 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-5	6	Warrior Johny	J Talamo
PLACE	10-1	1	Awesome Aaron	D Cannon
SHOW	5-2	3	Pioneer of Medina	L Saez
WILD CARD	5-1	2	Major General	F Geroux

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	4	Droppin Gs	E Morales
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	5	Midnight J J	R Bejarano

* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/6 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX

RACE #9 $127,000 ALLOWANCE 5 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:05 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 SKELLY

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-5	5	Skelly	B J Hernandez Jr.
PLACE	5-1	9	B Sudd	F Arrieta
SHOW	6-1	2	Improbable Journey	G Saez
WILD CARD	8-1	3	Let My People Go	R Bejarano

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	8	Back to Normal	G Corrales
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	6	Dark Timber	R Santana Jr.

* EXACTA: 5-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/9 BOX, 2/3/9 BOX

RACE #10 $92,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:35 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	2	Tequila Empire	F Arrieta
PLACE	12-1	7	Big Dig	M Murrill
SHOW	6-1	4	Thestral	L Machado
WILD CARD	4-1	1	Defining Purpose	B J Hernandez Jr.

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	6	Ladan	J L Castanon
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	3	Perfect Rose	R Miranda

* EXACTA: 2-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/7 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-17-2022, 12:25 AM

Aqueduct Tip Sheet - November 17

November 16, 2022

AQUEDUCT TIPS - THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 17, 2022
Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $85,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:20 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	1-2	5	Signal From Noise	I Ortiz Jr.
PLACE	5-1	4	Adams Angel	J Lezcano
SHOW	4-1	3	Wings Like Eagles	J Rosario
WILD CARD	12-1	1	Divine Wine	K Carmouche

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	Charging Lady	J L Ortiz
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	6	Princess Sonya	J Alvarado

* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX

RACE #2 $70,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 FURLONGS ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 12:50 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	6-1	4	Voleuse	M Franco
PLACE	7-2	6	Shinfull	I Ortiz Jr.
SHOW	8-1	7	Laughter	J L Ortiz
WILD CARD	8-1	9	Ard Macha	J Castellano

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	1	Tara Dancer	K Carmouche
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	13	Royal Currency	Rider TBA

* EXACTA: 4-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX, 7-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/7 BOX, 6/7/9 BOX

RACE #3 $10,000 CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:18 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 PRAIRIE FIRE

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	4	Prairie Fire	S Gonzalez
PLACE	3-1	6	That Is Key	D Davis
SHOW	9-5	1	Adelaide Miss	I Ortiz Jr.
WILD CARD	12-1	2	Big Tonys Girl	K Carmouche

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	5	Dat Dares Gold	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	3	Big Als Gal	L A Rodriguez Castro

* EXACTA: 4-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/6 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX

RACE #4 $55,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:46 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	10-1	8	Lady Firefoot	J Castellano
PLACE	9-2	7	Stella Mars	J Rosario
SHOW	10-1	13	Cant Fool Me	M Franco
WILD CARD	6-1	10	Maybe Later	J Lezcano

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	Pegs A. K. Girl	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 2	7-2	6	Ocean Air	I Ortiz Jr.

* EXACTA: 8-7 BOX, 7-13 BOX, 13-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 7/8/13 BOX, 7/10/13 BOX

RACE #5 $16,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:16 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 ITS ALL RELEVANT

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	1	Its All Relevant	J A Gomez
PLACE	5-1	3	Runabout	D Davis
SHOW	5-1	6	Double Shot	M Franco
WILD CARD	15-1	7	Amount	L A Rodriguez Castro

ALTERNATE 1	5-2	1A	Winning Drive	I Ortiz Jr.
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	8	Warrior in Chief	T McCarthy

* EXACTA: 1-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/6 BOX, 3/6/7 BOX

RACE #6 $90,000 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE OUTER TURF - POST TIME: 2:44 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-1	5	Train to Artemus	J A Gomez
PLACE	10-1	8	Fontanafredda	J Alvarado
SHOW	3-1	6	Breeze Easy	J Rosario
WILD CARD	12-1	11	Glitter Up	N Juarez

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	12	Madrilena	J Castellano
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	9	Laugh and Play	I Ortiz Jr.

* EXACTA: 5-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX, 6-11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/6/8 BOX, 6/8/11 BOX

RACE #7 $16,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:14 PM ET
BEST BET: #10 FREE CHICKENS

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	10	Free Chickens	J Lezcano
PLACE	7-2	6	Ice Cold Gold	E Cancel
SHOW	9-2	2	Freudian	J A Vargas Jr.
WILD CARD	5-1	1	Moam	M Franco

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	8	Rosemary Potatoes	J Laprida
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	9	My Delicious	J A Gomez

* EXACTA: 10-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/10 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX

RACE #8 $80,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:43 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	7	Sheriff Bianco	J Lezcano
PLACE	9-2	1	Quick Return	J Castellano
SHOW	3-1	4	Unique Unions	J A Gomez
WILD CARD	5-1	3	Foolish Ghost	K Carmouche

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	2	Nueva York	J Baez
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	8	Advanced Strategy	I Ortiz Jr.

* EXACTA: 7-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/7 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX

RACE #9 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:12 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-2	9	Central Love	D Davis
PLACE	6-1	1A	M. C. Double R	J A Gomez
SHOW	7-2	3	Makar	J Rosario
WILD CARD	10-1	5	Destin Hoofman	M Franco

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	1	Hot Rod Lincoln	T McCarthy
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	11	Saratoga Banker	J Castellano

* EXACTA: 9-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/9 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-17-2022, 12:26 AM

Churchill Downs Hotlist - November 17

November 16, 2022

Today’s Churchill Downs Hot List races to watch
Thursday, Nov. 17, 2022
By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more. +
1st race – (1) Desoto’s War was third in his last two tries but should prevail in this field. (4) Plemmonston won his last start and should be a main threat. (2) Lake Tahoe also exits a win and should be watched. (6) Hot Pastrami could be a tasty choice here. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-4-6.
3rd race – (6) Argumental (C) was bet down from 9-5 to 7-5 and then posted a front-running maiden win. Should not be caught here, either. (4) My Dams Atitude returns from 6-month layoff and runs well fresh. (3) Shaniah was no worse than third in her last five starts and belongs in the exotics. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-4-6.
5th race – (4) Iberville was a game third last time and looks tough off the Tomlinson claim. (8) Camp David may respond to a class drop. (1) Lightning Struck should be a main factor from the rail for Asmussen. (2) Classic King could wake up in this field. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-4-8
7th race – (1) Release McCraken was second in two of his three starts and should graduate today. (7) Tap Dance Tango is a Asmussen firster who can make his presence felt. (10) Sir can benefit from the addition of blinkers. (4) Global Surprise figures to be competitive here. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-7-10.
9th race – (5) Skelly (A) won easily last time and should handle this field as well. (9) B Sudd looks like the one to fear while returning from a freshening. (8) Back to Normal is working quickly for this start. (2) Improbable Journey has speed and could hang on for a share of the purse. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-5-8-9.

No.

Letter/Last race

Today’s race

Comment

(6)

Argumental

C, 10/26

3 CD

Won easily last time out

(5)

Skelly

A, 10/2

9 CD

Was an impressive winner

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-17-2022, 12:27 AM

Aqueduct Hotlist - November 17

November 16, 2022

Today’s NY Hot List races to watch – Thursday, November 17, 2022 at Aqueduct
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1^st race [Md Sp Wt, 1 mi] – (6) Princess Sonya (D) was well bet in her debut for Charlie Baker but that was back in May of 2021. On that day she pressed the pace and finished seventh. I will be interesting to see if the 4-year-old will get bet again. (5) Signal From Noise was sent off at 5-2 in her first start for Chad Brown in September at BAQ when she ran a stalking trip and finished second behind a horse that came back to win an allowance next time out. (4) Adam’s Angel moved back to the main track after trying the grass and ran second last month at BAQ. (3) Wings Like Eagles will move from turf to dirt in her fifth start for Bill Mott. She did run second on a sloppy track earlier in the year.
3^rd race [Clm 10000, 7F] – (1) Adelaide Miss (C) will make a huge drop down in class while getting blinkers on and moving from turf to dirt. She is a past allowance winner and is stakes placed on the grass. She was claimed two races back by Repole Stable and Rudy Rodriguez for $25,000. Last start she was third for $32,000 and was bet down from 7-1 to 5-1. (4) Prairie Fire lost all chance at the start of her last race and before that was claimed from three straight starts with two wins. (6) That Is Key was a winner by more than eight lengths for $12,500 going a mile last month. (5) Dat Dares Gold is a veteran mare with 13 victories that makes her first start at Aqueduct after frequenting the Maryland circuit even though she is a NY-bred.
8^th race [NY, OC45k/N2X, 6F] – (3) Foolish Ghost was claimed for $45,000 by Linda Rice. Two starts back he finished fifth in an allowance at Saratoga behind the eventual Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner. He is a past state-bred stakes winner and is projected to be the pace setter. (1) Quick Return was claimed from 5 out of his last 6 races with three wins in those starts. (4) Unique Unions prefers to race while pressing the pace and has six top three finishes in his career of nine races. (8) Advanced Strategy drops in for a tag for the first time in his career and moves from turf to back to dirt where he is a past winner at Aqueduct.
9^th race [NY, Md 40000, 6F] – (3) Makar will move from turf to dirt for Brad Cox after three starts where he was heavily bet. His best finish was a second at Saratoga. (2) Joyful Ghost made his only start on the turf for Linda Rice at 6-1 last month at BAQ. (9) Central Love was second in his debut for a $40,000 tag and then moved back up in class to run fourth in a maiden special weight. Blinkers go on for his third start. (10) West Star made his first start for Steve Asmussen against a strong field where the second-place horse came back to win impressively.
Best bets: Adelaide Miss (3^rd); Makar (9^th). Best value: Princess Sonya (1^st); Foolish Ghost (8^th).

No.	Name	Letter/ last race	Today's Race	Comments
(6)	Princess Sonya	D on 5/31/21	1	She returns from an 18 month layoff.
(1)	Adelaide Miss	C on 9/5	3	She had the lead, finished third, and now makes a big drop down.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-17-2022, 08:23 AM

Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Thursday, November 17
Posted on November 16, 2022 by David Aragona

RACE 2: TRUE MARTINI (#2)

Likely favorite Shinfull (#6) has finished second in her last three attempts against maidens on turf, and will be looking to break that pattern here. She got a good trip stalking the heavy favorite last time and could just never reel that one in while well clear of the third-place finisher. She’s obviously a contender, but the major drawback is that she figures to be a short price, especially with Irad Ortiz retaining the mount. Among the shorter prices, I’m actually more interested in Voleuse (#4). She’s been competing on dirt recently, but she made a decent run into a moderate pace in her turf debut before running a bit worse in her second start on that surface. However, she didn’t get the best trip on June 4, covered up while rank in behind horses before shaking free to late. Clement is bypassing seemingly softer dirt maiden races to try this. Family Band (#10) is a new face that I want to include. She took some money to be 6-1 on debut here nearly a year ago. She ran poorly on dirt that day, but she does have some pedigree for grass, by Constitution out of a turf-winning dam who produced 3-time turf winner Mr. Massena. Yet I want to go for a different price horse as my top pick. True Martini (#2)wasn’t a serious factor in her debut two months ago, but she had some excuses. This filly was off a step slowly, then got rank when attempting to move up in traffic on the backstretch. She ultimately didn’t have much finish, but the race was dominated on the front end by a heavy favorite who got to set a slow pace. The Mike Miceli barn has been in the midst of a cold streak, but they did get a much needed victory last week, so perhaps the momentum is shifting. She picks up Trevor McCarthy and adds blinkers, bringing plenty of upside into her second start.

RACE 6: MISS TAPIRADO (#4)

Breeze Easy (#6) is probably the horse to beat after just missing at this level last time when nosed out by the solid Mrs. Green. This filly has been a bit of a frustrating project for Christophe Clement, as it’s been difficult to find her ideal distance and trip. She seemed to settle better on the cutback to 6 furlongs last time, and unleashed the most potent late run that we’ve seen from her so far in the U.S. However, she still got run down after striking the lead in deep stretch. She’s a contender, but I thought others from that Oct. 15 race were a little more interesting. Fontanafredda (#8) had a disastrous start that day, as she got bumped and steadied out of position soon after the break, putting her far back early. She actually made a nice late run into a fourth, though she was somewhat aided by the race flow. She’s going to be a fair price again and has been improving all year. Another horse from that race, Miss Tapirado (#4), could get ignored after seemingly putting in a poor effort that day. However, her trip didn’t work for different reasons. She was too keen breaking her outside post position and found herself much closer to the pace than she had been in her prior start. She ultimately had to back out of position, and had little to offer after going 3-wide on the turn. I expect to see her revert to closing tactics this time, and that running style figures to work well in a race that is loaded with early speed. Perhaps some others are slightly more reliable, but this mare is going to be a much better price than she’s been in recent starts. The new face in this group is Madrilena (#12), but I’m a little concerned about her drawing the outside post position with so much other speed signed on. She ran a big race last time at Kentucky Downs, making an early move into a seemingly fast pace. That was also a pretty tough spot and now she’s dropping down one allowance level for a dangerous barn. I’m using her, but was concerned she’d take too much money.

RACE 8: FOOLISH GHOST (#3)

Though I’m not convinced he’ll be the favorite, I do think Unique Unions (#4) is the horse to beat. He put in a pretty encouraging effort last time in his first attempt at this level. The pace of that race was extremely fast, and he did well to chase down the leader before getting swallowed up by closers. This gelding has been steadily improving for months now, and appears to be coming into this in razor sharp form for a barn that has been having a bit of a renaissance as of late. He may not be quite as naturally fast as some others, but the apprentice figures to leave for early position. Sheriff Bianco (#7) could go favored off his 11-length victory on the switch to dirt last time. Linda Rice decided to keep him in that off the turf affair despite entering this horse for grass, and that decision proved revelatory. He wasn’t beating a field nearly as good as this one, but he ran an awfully fast race. He doesn’t need to be in front, as he displayed last time, and is drawn well outside. Yet I’m actually a little more interested in Linda Rice’s other runner. Foolish Ghost (#3) is most dangerous when he can shake loose on the front end. That didn’t happen in either of his last two starts, as he got outrun to the lead by some extremely fast foes both times. He actually ran pretty well against open company two back, but was seemingly discouraged last time, fading badly in the stretch He won at this level three back at Belmont when he was able to get the lead, and he might be able to get to the front here, since he’s faster than Unique Unions and doesn’t figure to get too much pressure from his stablemate. The wild card in this field is Advanced Strategy (#8), who finally returns to dirt for the first time since the winter of 2021. He actually ran quite well in his last couple of dirt starts, particularly on Feb. 13 when he overcame a rail bias. However, his recent turf form is somewhat inconsistent and the turnback to 6 furlongs might not be ideal.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-17-2022, 08:23 AM

Rocket Picks ��: Aqueduct and Churchill Downs for November 17, 2022
By: Aaron Halterman

Let’s get it rolling with another week of racing! For the free pick 4, we will head to Aqueduct for the Late Pick 4 on the card. We will also have full card selections for Churchill Downs for the paid Rockets, so be sure to check those out. Let’s GO!

Below is our free late Pick 4 for Aqueduct:

Aqueduct November 17, 2022

Race 6: Allowance

#4 Miss Tapirado should get a solid set up today and will be tough to beat if she bounces back from a poor effort in her last start. #5 Train to Artemus goes for four straight wins in this spot. This will be a move up in class; however, she looks ready for the challenge.

Race 7: Claiming
freestar

#2 Freudian runs first off of the claim or a solid trainer who should move the horse up in performance. #10 Free Chickens goes for two wins in a row after a solid win over the dirt last time out. The dirt looks to be her best surface, which should lead to another good race today.

Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming

#4 Unique Unicorns struggled a bit last time out at this level; however, was a nice winner two starts back at Saratoga. #7 Sheriff Blanco absolutely dominated over the dirt at this track last time out at this class level. A similar performance should lead to another victory today.

Race 9: Maiden Claiming

#3 Markar moves over to the dirt for this race today, while also taking a drop down in class. We will see if this moves him forward after three turf races. #9 Central Love drops back down the maiden claiming ranks again today, which is where he nearly won on debut two starts back.

THE TICKET

$.50 Pick 4 (Races 6-9) 4,5,6,9 / 2,10 / 4,7 / 3,8,9,10 – $32

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-17-2022, 08:24 AM

Robin Goodfellow's racing tips: Best bets for Thursday, November 17

By Sam Turner For The Daily Mail

Sportsmail's racing expert Robin Goodfellow delivers his tips for Thursday's meetings at Chelmsford City, Newcastle, Wincanton and Market Rasen.

CHELMSFORD CITY

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

5.00 Majestic Pride

5.30 Laurentia

6.00 Longsider

6.30 Soldier’s Minute

7.00 Pandemic Princess

7.30 Angle Land (nap)

8.00 Overstate

8.30 Costa Adeje

GIMCRACK

5.00 Majestic Pride (nb)

5.30 Mr Fayez

6.00 Longsider

6.30 Shallow Hal

7.00 Rattling

7.30 Angle Land

8.00 Sun Festival

8.30 Costa Adeje

Newmarket – 5.00 Majestic Pride (nap); 5.30 Chagall (nb).

NEWCASTLE

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

12.00 I Am Gonna Be

12.33 Sputnik

1.03 Pileup

1.38 Ballintogher Boy

2.13 Lucky Lover Boy

2.48 Hidden Commander

3.23 Yorkshire Man Sam

GIMCRACK

12.00 Perculator

12.33 Sputnik

1.03 Fenland Tiger

1.38 Faitque De L’Isle

2.13 Lock Down Luke

2.48 Slanelough

3.23 Frankie Lamb

WINCANTON

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

12.25 Cornicello

12.55 Stormin Crossgales

1.30 Last Royal

2.05 Tintern Abbey

2.40 Don Alvaro

3.15 Killybegs Junior

3.50 Almost Gotaway

GIMCRACK

12.25 Cornicello

12.55 Cap Du Mathan

1.30 Thomas Mor

2.05 Ebonello

2.40 Don Alvaro

3.15 Killybegs Junior

3.50 Sami Bear

MARKET RASEN

ROBIN GOODFELLOW

12.17 Lunar Contact

12.47 Lady Babs

1.20 Dame De Fortune

1.55 Bempton Cliffs (nb)

2.30 Bowtogreatness

3.05 Bridge North

3.40 Thatza Dazzler

GIMCRACK

12.17 Lunar Contact

12.47 Three Platoon

1.20 Dame De Fortune

1.55 Check My Pulse

2.30 Raffle Ticket

3.05 Bridge North (nap)

3.40 Blue Fin

Northerner – 12.47 Three Platoon (nap); 3.40 Blue Fin (nb).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-17-2022, 08:24 AM

Today’s Free Horse Picks – Thursday, November 17th 2022
By Reggie Garrett

We are covering 5 tracks on Thursday, November 17th, 2022. Reggie Garrett has his picks for each race at Horseshoe Indianapolis, Churchill Downs and more. Good luck and enjoy!

Aqueduct – 12:20 ET
Race 1: 3 Wings Like Eagles
Race 2: 6 Shinfull
Race 3: 6 That Is Key
Race 4: 7 Stella Mars
Race 5: 8 Warrior in Chief
Race 6: 12 Madrilena
Race 7: 2 Freudian
Race 8: 1 Quick Return
Race 9: 3 Makar

Churchill Downs – 1:00 ET
Race 1: 6 Hot Pastrami
Race 2: 3 Sweet Truffles
Race 3: 6 Argumental
Race 4: 9 Retained
Race 5: 2 Classic King
Race 6: 5 Spankhurst
Race 7: 1 Release McCraken
Race 8: 3 Pioneer of Medina
Race 9: 9 B Sudd
Race 10: 1 Defining Purpose

Horseshoe Indianapolis – 2:10 ET
Race 1: 3 Saturn Boy
Race 2: 6 D’oro’s Wish
Race 3: 10 Second to No One
Race 4: 7 Breakup With Titos
Race 5: 2 Groom Lake
Race 6: 10 D’ Kitten
Race 7: 1 Hitchpin
Race 8: 7 Speedy Delivery
Race 9: 2 Wheelze Up
Race 10: 3 Motoring Molly

Mahoning Valley – 12:45 ET
Race 1: 4 The Equinest
Race 2: 3 Tuffian
Race 3: 7 Mr Lightning Boy
Race 4: 4 Argyll
Race 5: 6 Black Butte
Race 6: 4 Star Mabee
Race 7: 5 Jebip
Race 8: 7 Bay Magic

Woodbine – 4:50 ET
Race 1: 5 It’s True
Race 2: 4 Meritamen
Race 3: 5 More Gelato
Race 4: 4 Onezy’s Dream
Race 5: 3 Prince of Thieves
Race 6: 1 Twisted Path
Race 7: 6 Miss Brentwood
Race 8: 7 Blu Sky Sunrise

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-17-2022, 08:24 AM

Thursday’s Hawkesbury racing tips & top odds | November 17, 2022
November 16, 2022 10:28 am.
Nathan Keven

What Hawkesbury Races
Where Hawkesbury Race Club – 1 Racecourse Rd, Clarendon NSW 2756
When Thursday, November 17, 2022
First Race 1:25pm AEDT

Visit Ladbrokes

NSW provincial racing heads to Hawkesbury on Thursday afternoon for a competitive eight-race program. The track is currently sitting on a Soft 5, and with minimal rain across the region leading into raceday, we should be in that range come the first race at 1:25pm AEDT. The rail sits back in the true position for the entire circuit, so hopefully we’ll be on a fair playing surface at Hawkesbury.
Best Bet at Hawkesbury: Fashion Legend

Fashion Legend is first-up in this 1000m contest for the Richard & Will Freedman stable. His two-year-old preparation was very strong, culminating in a terrific runner-up effort behind Nipotino at Kembla Grange when beaten 1.3 lengths. He was unfortunate not to win that day, as he got back in the field and flew home late with an eye-catching finish before then heading to the paddock. After a 105-day spell and two impressive barrier trials, we are happy to side with this Deep Field gelding in his first run back. This race doesn’t look to have a great deal of depth on paper, so it looks a great opportunity to get an early win this preparation. Keagan Latham has plenty of options from gate six, but look for him to find the one-by-one in this small field before putting them away. He is a short price with the top betting sites, but we are hoping Fashion Legend will justify the support.
Best Bet

Race 4 – Fashion Legend silks#1 Fashion Legend (6)

3yo Gelding | T: Richard & Will Freedman | J: Keagan Latham (58kg)

$2 with Palmerbet
Next Best at Hawkesbury: Thinking Rain

The first leg of the quaddie is where we find the next best of the afternoon with the Gary Portelli-trained filly Thinking Rain. You only need to forgive her last start at Flemington on October 29 in the Wakeful Stakes to be siding with her on Thursday; she was out of her depth in that type of race, while she also drew a horrid barrier and had to cross the entire field before dropping out late. Other than that, she looks to have the right form-lines to be competitive in this BM64 contest, running fifth behind A Lot More Love on October 15 at Randwick at Listed level. Thinking Rain looks fit, and from barrier five we can be confident jockey Jason Collett can place her anywhere in the run and look the winner at some stage. She just needs more luck than she has been finding so far this preparation; if she gets any, she’ll be winning.
Next Best

Race 5 – Thinking Rain#5 Thinking Rain (5)

3yo Filly | T: Gary Portelli | J: Jason Collett (58.5kg)

$3 with Neds
Best Value at Hawkesbury: Ishani

We’re very keen to be backing Ishani in the first race on the card, and we’re getting an overs each-way price to boot. This filly by I Am Invincible comes in first-up for the Michael Freedman yard after a 218-day spell and an outstanding trial to her name on October 17 at Hawkesbury, giving every indication she’s returning in the sort of form we saw when she was beaten 3.5 lengths by eventual Coolmore Stud Stakes winner In Secret on April 13 at this very track. Ishani has drawn wide, but Keagan Latham should look to use her early toe to get across to lead and find the running rail before launching off the turn to get us a winner nice and early for the day. She should be closer to favouritism, in our opinion, so look for her to firm in the market.
Best Value

Race 1 – Ishani#12 Ishani (11)

3yo Filly | T: Michael Freedman | J: Keagan Latham (55.5kg)

$6 with Bet365
Thursday quaddie tips for Hawkesbury races
Hawkesbury quadrella selections

Thursday, November 17, 2022

5-7
2-3-4-7-9
1-2-3-8
2-3-4-7

Investment: $160 for 100%

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-17-2022, 08:25 AM

Mornington best bets & quaddie tips | November 17, 2022
November 15, 2022 5:05 pm.
Ciaran Jackman

What Mornington Races
Where Mornington Racecourse – 320 Racecourse Rd, Mornington VIC 3931
When Thursday, November 17, 2022
First Race 1pm AEDT
Ladbrokes Logo

Visit Ladbrokes

Racing will return to Mornington Racecourse on Thursday afternoon with a very competitive eight-race card. The track is currently rated a Heavy 8 after following a deluge of rain on Monday morning which flooded most of the track, so we expect it to still be in the Heavy range come Thursday. The rail will be in the 3m position for the entire circuit, and racing gets underway at 1pm AEDT.
Best Bet at Mornington: Li’l Wonder

In the three-year-old fillies Maiden Plate over 1200m we will be siding with the Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes-trained Li’l Wonder, who will be looking to break her maiden at career start number four. This filly was very unlucky at her last start after trying to go for two runs in between horses before being checked and squashed both times, she then fall back through the field and finished seventh. Since returning from a four month spell this filly has been given two jump-outs, with her most recent jump-out at Flemington being the best of the two. Damien Oliver will go to Mornington for one ride on Thursday, which gives us more confidence that this girl will be ready to win first-up over 1200m. Oliver will look to lob in the one-one and start to peel off the leader’s back down the side, allowing Li’l Wonder to kick off the home bend and break her maiden in style.
Best Bet

Race 3 – Silk #5 Li’l Wonder (6)

3yo Filly | T: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes | J: Damien Oliver (57kg)

$2.30 with Unibet
Next Best at Mornington: Bel Thronum

Our next best bet of the day will be the Jerome Hunter-trained Bel Thronum, who will return from a six-month spell after only having one start in her two-year-old season. This three-year-old filly ran third on debut at Geelong over 1106m after she raced on-speed, but she peaked on her run with about 50m to go as the backmarkers ran over the top of her. Since returning from a spell, she has been given three good jump-outs, where she won the most recent one over 1050m at Mornington on November 9. Considering she ran on a Heavy 10 on debut, there should be no worries about a rain affected or Heavy rated track on Thursday. If Daniel Stackhouse can have this girl in a rhythm in the lead or outside the leader, she should be very hard to get past in the concluding stages of the 1000m event.
Next Best

Race 2- Silk #9 Bel Thronum (6)

3yo Filly | T: Jerome Hunter | J: Daniel Stackhouse (56kg)

$2.80 with Palmerbet
Best Value at Mornington: She’s A Karaka

In race seven over 2000m She’s A Karaka from the Patrick Caboche yard looks to be a good value chance after producing two encouraging starts this preparation over 1500m and 1600m. At her most recent start, this mare ran 10 lengths last in the Open Peninsula Cup at Mornington, which is a much higher grade than the race she will contest on Thursday. Last time this daughter of Makfi ran over 2000m at Mornington, she finished second by less than a length behind Secret Palace on a Heavy 10. If the leaders go along at a good speed and Sheridan Clarke gets this girl moving down the side straight, she should be ready to pounce around the home turn and look the winner in the home straight.
Best Value

Race 6 – Silk #7 She’s A Karaka (5)

6yo Mare | T: Parick Caboche | J: Sheridan Clarke (a2) (56kg)

$7 with Neds
Thursday quaddie tips for Mornington
Mornington quadrella selections

Thursday, November 17, 2022

1-3-4
2-4-5-7
2-4-5-6
3-4-7-8

Investment: $192 for 100%

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-17-2022, 08:25 AM

DRF's Horse Racing Playbook for Thursday, November 17, 2022

DRF StaffNov 16, 2022

Daily Racing Form has served as the most trusted source of news and information about the sport since 1894, and moving forward we have decided to provide a free daily playbook – something that both hardcore horseplayers and casual observers can reference to get informed of each day’s action.

12:50 AQU 2nd ADMIRE MY CROWN (#8, 20-1) was the lone first-time starter in that field when debuting at Saratoga; got away last from the gate before chasing wide around the track in that spot, and she raced on through the stretch to no avail; did a little running there in an effort that might be better than it looks and she will be a price once again. -Mike Beer | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

1:46 AQU 4th BASILIA (#3, 10-1) was off the layoff last time when contending early and weakening late vs. a field of three-life claimers that compares favorably with this group; has the back races to do better in the second start back for Maker, who protects her this time. -Mike Beer | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

2:16 AQU 5th GOOD SKATE (#4, 8-1) won twice over this track earlier in the year, the second of those over this distance in the slop, then made his next three starts vs. tougher; didn't have a real excuse two back while in charge of a pace that wasn't fast, though he still earned a big new Beyer top in that spot; drops back down cutting back after getting in over his head last time. -Mike Beer | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

4:12 AQU 9th JOYFUL GHOST (#2, 5-1) chased and tired after getting bumped at the start of his debut on turf; has more of a dirt pedigree and can put that experience to use as he drops for Rice, who excels with second-time starters. -Mike Beer | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

5:19 WO 2nd BLUEBERRY DOLL (#6, 15-1) worked an above-average five-eighths the other day for a capable first-out conditioner. The Perron homebred is a half-sister to the hard-knocking sprinter Dancing Doll ($300K), who won fifth-time out at 2 here on the Tapeta. -Ron Gierkink | Get PPs for this race | Bet this race with DRF Bets

8:20 WO 8th SAN NICOLA STAR (#5, 12-1) is a DRF Best Bet (Ron Gierkink).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-17-2022, 08:28 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Churchill Downs - Race #2
Picks Notes
#8 La Chapeau Her best race came in her only two-turn try, so this elongated one-turn trip might give her a chance to bounce back while making this second start off the layoff.
#1 Verdandi She just turned in the kind of effort that might win this, but her form hasn't always been that reliable, so I wouldn't be too thrilled to be here if the price starts getting short. Vulnerable late?
#2 Jackie's Love She'll make her dirt debut in this one, but her best career try came the only other time she raced for a tag, so it wouldn't be a shock to see something much better while dropping in with this kind.
Race Summary La Chapeau is probably tactical enough to find a decent spot at this one-turn mile trip, and I imagine she has some upside after the comeback run off the long break.

Churchill Downs - Race #8
Picks Notes
#6 Warrior Johny Think he's going to be able to handle this group at a modest price as he drops out of stakes company for this and owns a handful of running lines that would probably leave the rest fighting for second. Tough here.
#3 Pioneer of Medina He earned a Grade II placing behind Epicenter earlier this year in Louisiana, but he has shown absolutely nothing since finishing up the track in the Kentucky Derby. I respect the team, and I respect his best, but he's not for at until he shows some sign interest in the afternoon again.
#7 Gunton Roe He has shown some ability to get past horses in some previous races, and I wonder if he finds a good spot while tucking back a bit from the outside draw. Interesting for a piece at a price.
Race Summary Warrior Johny should be a handful here, and he gets a good race shape to settle just behind the pace, which might be on the fair side for this trip. Could easily see him finding the lead into the lane and holding from there.

Churchill Downs - Race #10
Picks Notes
#4 Thestral She moved up in a big way when getting around two turns at second asking, and she should be in line for another good trip right near the top here.
#1 Defining Purpose She went pretty evenly in the Keeneland debut run, but she has some upside after that two-turn debut, and the barn wins a lot of these kinds of races locally.
#7 Big Dig She has already turned in a pair of decent efforts, and another good spying trip should be in the cards while moving around two turns for the first time. Wouldn't be a surprise.
Race Summary Think there are a few different ways to go in here, including #2 Tequila Empire, but Thestral might be a decent mid-range price here while stepping up, and I really liked the way he came forward in that first route start.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-17-2022, 08:31 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Woodbine - Race #1
Picks Notes
#1 UGOTAFRIENDINME (8-1) Rallied in mid-track in useful debut, added ground a plus.
#2 STUBBORN STREAK (8-5) Followed move of winner, had duel to rally into, closed fast.
#4 PIDIN (3-1) Raced close-up to solid pace at 7F, holds tactical edge over top pair.
Race Summary UGOTAFRIENDINME (8-1) swung 5-wide late on the turn and finished well behind a runaway winner to get third. He’s one of several class droppers in here but offers a much better price. Play 1-2 and 1-4 exactas.

Woodbine - Race #2
Picks Notes
#5 CHROME’S ANGEL (3-1) Appears rounding to winning race, changes riders again, needs alert break.
#9 MACHINA (12-1) Good connections, good price for debut, dam was 25/3-7-5 and a $133k earner.
#2 GETTING AHEAD (5-2) Took money in first start, blew long lead going a route of ground on soft turf.
Race Summary CHROME’S ANGEL overcame a bumpy start and dueled to the stretch two starts back in a race dominated by deep closers. She broke slowly last out and rallied for second behind the 8-5 pace setter. Bet to win and place.

Woodbine - Race #4
Picks Notes
#2 ORBALINE (5-1) ‘Late energy’ between rivals late after pace slowed, gets in light, knows how to win.
#7 SILENT GUROO (3-1) Good first gear, transitions from turf, takes some catching.
#1 VALLEY GIRL (5-2) Saved ground, got the jump on Orbaline, finished second.
Race Summary ORBALINE was slowed by the pace as the beaten favorite last out but should have no such problems against many of the same rivals in here. She is reunited with Jones, who was aboard for a runaway victory two starts back that improved her Woodbine record to 6-18. Bet to win and place.