Friday 12/2/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

BRYAN POWER

Play: Switzerland 0.0 (+100)

Switzerland only needs a draw to advance (assuming Cameroon doesn't beat Brazil) and playing this way “protects” us if that is in fact the result here. But I do give the Swiss a GREAT shot at winning the final Group G match. They come in off a pair of 1-0 results, a win over Cameroon and a loss to Brazil. Holding Brazil to just the one goal was probably just as impressive as beating Cameroon. Serbia conceded twice in their loss to Brazil (and probably should have conceded more), then gave up three more goals in the draw with Cameroon (blew a 3-1 lead). So there are issues at the backend for them. I've got Switzerland rated as the better side.

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DWAYNE BRYANT

7 PM ET -- College Basketball

Game: 863 Wake Forest at 864 Clemson

Play: 1H UNDER 67 (-110)

Bet Size: 3%

Line Parameters:
3% play at 66 or better
2% play at 65.5
1% play at 65

My college hoops totals plays are determined by a combination of relevant statistical data from KenPom.com, history involving similar games (researched using the SDQL database), and current market data. A play is made when enough of these factors align. The play's size is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

[ConleyPicks]

BRYAN POWER

Event: (306745) Eastern Kentucky at (306746) James Madison

Play: Total Over 158.0 (-110)

These teams played to a 79-78 final last season (JMU won). That was one-point shy of the total. We've got an identical O/U line for this year's rematch and I'm anticipating the teams go Over. Keep in mind that we got 157 points last year with JMU shooting just 26.3% from three, EKU shooting 40% overall and only 30 combined free throws. Some of the offensive numbers these teams bring into tonight are inflated due to playing some patsies. But we know JMU is going to play fast (23rd in the country in adjusted tempo) and they are #76 in offensive efficiency. EKU is also top 75 in tempo. The Colonials are quite bad defensively (290th!) although they do like to pressure the basketball in an effort to force turnovers. This of course leaves them susceptible over the top. There were a lot of possessions in last year's game (81) so expect another track meet from these two. Play the Over.

[ConleyPicks]

BRYAN LEONARD

Event: (871) Massachusetts at (872) Harvard

Play: Total Over 140.5 (-105)

871 Harvard at Massachusetts

PLAY OVER

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BEN BURNS

Event: (555) Washington Wizards at (556) Charlotte Hornets

Play: Total Over 225.5 (-110)

I was initially considering making the over an ‘official’ play. However the O/U climbed and I don't feel quite as strongly. That said, I still see them combining for 230+. Neither team is playing much defense lately. Charlotte just gave up 140 points in its last game. Opposing teams are hitting better than 48% of their field goals against the Hornets over the past five games. Washington has allowed at least 110 points in five straight games. During that 5-game stretch, the Wizards are allowing an average of 118.6 ppg, opposing teams connecting on 47.9% of their field goals. Expect a high-scoring affair.

[ConleyPicks]

BEN BURNS

Play: Milwaukee Bucks -7.5 (-110)

The Lakers have won a few lately but they're not ready to go on the road and take on a team like Milwaukee. The Bucks, 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS their past three, are expecting to get Middleton back. With or without him, however, they'll be too much for their guests. Off its win over Portland, note that LA is an ugly 12-27-1 ATS the past 40 times it was off a double-digit victory. While the Lakers get outscored by a 118-100 margin on the road, the Bucks outscore visiting teams by an average score of 115.6 to 106.5. Lay the points.

[ConleyPicks]

RALPH MICHAELS

Event: (565) Orlando Magic at (566) Cleveland Cavaliers

Play: Total Under 217.0 (-110)

#565/#566 UNDER 217 ORL/CLE

The teams are a combined 4-10 O/U the L2W and a combined 2-7 O/U looking at their Home/Away splits.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Charles Town - Race #1 - Post: 7:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,300 Class Rating: 47

Rating:

#4 WHY LEA (ML=5/1)


WHY LEA - Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this horse is meeting an easier group than last out at Charles Town. This filly is rounding her way back into shape. Should race well today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 MANGORITA (ML=7/5), #5 UPTOWN BELLE (ML=8/5), #3 PRINCESS MIA ROSE (ML=6/1),

MANGORITA - This favorite hasn't been to the track in awhile. No morning drills since last race. UPTOWN BELLE - This racer just hasn't looked ready lately. PRINCESS MIA ROSE - More than enough races at Charles Town with no trips to the victory stand. Recorded a somewhat easily forgotten speed fig last out in a $5,000 Maiden Claiming race on October 15th. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that figure.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #4 WHY LEA on the nose if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $28000 Class Rating: 90

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000, IF FOR $16,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 NO MAN LEFT BEHIND 20/1
# 5 NEVER SATISFIED 6/1
# 10 BADBADBOBBY 5/1

NO MAN LEFT BEHIND is the top wager in this contest especially at a such a nice price. Abreu has this colt running well and is a respectable choice based on the very strong Equibase Speed Figs garnered in sprint races lately. With a very strong 82 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will clearly be a factor in this contest. NEVER SATISFIED - Has to be given a shot here on the basis of the figures in the speed department alone.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Tampa Bay Downs

12/02/22, TAM, Race 6, 2.54 ET
12/02/22,TAM,6,1 1/8M [Turf] 1:46:01 CLAIMING. Purse $16,600 (includes up to $1,350 FOA - Florida Owners Awards). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over Since November 2 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $16,000 (Races Where Entered For $12,500 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances) (Condition Eligibility).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	9	Liveforthesong	4/1	Batista J A	Arriagada Juan	TFEC	201	23.88	1.18/$1
097.7375	7	China Beach	10/1	Alonso J L	Brown Donald L.		201	23.88	1.18/$1
094.6609	5	Vladislav	7/2	Camacho S	Cordero-Lopez Alexis		201	23.88	1.18/$1
093.6443	3	Major Frontier	5/1	Morales P	Barbazon III Lester	J	201	23.88	1.18/$1
093.6439	4	Just Praise	5/1	Centeno D	Guciardo Kathleen A.		201	23.88	1.18/$1
093.5518	8	Gunman	6/1	Mitchell R	Manchan Bertram C.	SL	77	38.96	1.54/$1
093.2334	2	Magical Adventure	10/1	Bracho R A	Manning Dennis J.		201	23.88	1.18/$1
092.7975	1	Flashback Wind	12/1	Arroyo A S	Cordero Angel M.	W	201	23.88	1.18/$1
092.5670	6	Canyouhearmenow	8/1	Spanabel S	Duffy Sean		201	23.88	1.18/$1

Top rated horse With "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - Win% 35.48, ROI 1.71/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -2.2625
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
Jockey Dirt YTD_Curr*3.0 (M)
*Scratches may change this condition

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Turfway Park - Race #3 - Post: 6:55pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $25,000 Class Rating: 81

Rating:

#6 A REAL HERO (ML=5/2)


A REAL HERO - This is the only real stalker in the race. That 74 fig this filly garnered in her last race tells me she's a main player this time around.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 THE BEAUTY'S TALE (ML=3/1), #8 SINGSONG BIRD (ML=3/1), #4 JOY OF TREASURE (ML=5/1),

THE BEAUTY'S TALE - When examining today's class rating, she will have to earn a much better speed rating than in the last race to compete in this dirt route. SINGSONG BIRD - In this circumstance, this runner's inability to close in the last event is a troubling signal. This animal doesn't have a tenacious nature. Almost always finishes near the winner. JOY OF TREASURE - This horse likes to be on the board, but doesn't usually get the job done. Don't put in the top spot. Substandard speed figure in the last race at Keeneland at 1 1/16 miles. Don't believe this runner will improve too much in today's race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #6 A REAL HERO on the nose if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Del Mar

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $70000 Class Rating: 81

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. PURSE $87,500 FOR HORSES THAT QUALIFY FOR MAIDEN DIRT BONUS).

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 LILY POO 5/2
# 4 WUDI 9/5
# 1 SWEET TROUBLE 5/2

I've got to go with LILY POO. Her 74 average has this filly with among the most competitive speed figs in this event. Ought to go to the front end and may never look back. Should be given a chance based on the very strong Equibase Speed Figure put up in the last contest. WUDI - Trainer boasts strong win figs at this distance and surface. SWEET TROUBLE - Has competitive early pace and should fare admirably against this group. With Prat getting the mount, watch out for this horse.

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Hawthorne

Hawthorne - Race 1	$1 Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 20 Cent Superfecta 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) / 50 Cent Pick 5 / $1 Daily Double
Maiden Claiming $20,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 48 • Purse: $16,500 • Post: 12:55
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * MISS MIA: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CHI TOWN HEAT: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase C lass Rating at the distance/surface.
7	MISS MIA	5/1	2/1
4	CHI TOWN HEAT	8/5	5/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	MISS MIA	7	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	72	41	58.1	38.0	34.0
2	BARBARA ROHLOFF	2	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	40.8	32.2	24.7
4	CHI TOWN HEAT	4	8/5	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	24.5	41.8	38.3
6	PRINCESS TONI	6	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	15.9	18.7	12.2
1	PRINCESS RULER	1	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	20.9	12.4

Unknown Running Style: HER TIME IS NOW (7/2) [Jockey: Emigh Christopher A - Trainer: Vanden Berg B A], HAPPY QUEST (4/1) [Jockey: Centeno Alexis - Trainer: Rosin Coty W].

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turfway Park

Turfway Park - Race 2	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Double 50 cent Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) / 50 cent Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 76 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 6:25P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE NOVEMBER 2 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. INGERSOLL is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * INGERSOLL: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. SON OF GRACE: Horse racing off a l ayoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. FOOT SACK: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
1	INGERSOLL	3/1	7/2
7	SON OF GRACE	7/2	9/2
3	FOOT SACK	6/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	INGERSOLL	1	3/1	Front-runner	73	74	91.3	64.4	58.9
7	SON OF GRACE	7	7/2	Front-runner	75	72	79.9	59.7	52.2
6	READY TO SHAKE	6	12/1	Front-runner	59	54	67.5	41.9	22.9
3	FOOT SACK	3	6/1	Front-runner	73	77	62.0	62.0	52.0
8	RUBINSTEIN	8	15/1	Stalker	64	46	44.4	51.8	40.3
10	TRANSFER THE FUNDS	10	12/1	Trailer	69	59	44.0	56.4	45.4
5	THISPOINTINTIME	5	10/1	Trailer	68	53	39.4	54.0	45.0
4	OVER PROTECTIVE	4	10/1	Trailer	75	64	27.5	46.5	31.0
11	T J MUNNINGS	11	9/2	Alternator/Trailer	78	78	56.2	59.0	50.0
2	PASION AZTECA	2	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	67	54	44.2	44.0	26.0
9	SOAKING WET	9	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	76	65	31.6	26.5	12.5

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at The Meadows

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 12 - Post: 4:25 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 83 - Purse:$8500 - CD ALL AGES NW $5000 LAST 4 STARTS W/O $55,000 IN 2022 NE - MARES ALLOWED 20% AND 4YO`S ALLOWED 25% MORNING LINE: 8-6-5-2-1 A.MERRIMAN - #5 OR 6

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 8 MACHO MARTINI 5/2
# 5 ROMANEE BLUE CHIP 7/2
# 2 D P ROCKET 6/1

MACHO MARTINI will not be denied the win in this one. He has very nice class figures, averaging 86. Should be considered for a bet here. We can't pass on this horse given one of the finest driver-trainer stats around. Don't let a horse with such a huge winning stat like this be forgotten. ROMANEE BLUE CHIP - Many harness players will recognize the great speed rating in the last contest. Stacks up against any horse in this field of starters. The 5 post sports a better than expected win percent at The Meadows. D P ROCKET - Horoscope said take a chance today, this nice horse is as good as any to take a shot with. Many horse players know speed is is such an important factor. This interesting entrant has credentials with a 85 avg number.