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Tuesday 12/6/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
Tuesday's Free NCAAB Pick is on the Butler Bulldogs as a 6-point home favorite against the Yale Bulldogs. I just think this is too good a price to pass up on Butler at home. I'm just not buying much into this 8-1 start by Yale. A big reason for that is the schedule. Yale has played the 317th toughest schedule in the country. On the flip side, Butler is just 6-3, but have played the 149th toughest schedule. Their losses have come against Penn State, Tennessee and NC State, who are all Top 60 teams. I like Butler to roll to an easy double-digit win. Bet Butler -6!
I am a big fan of this Saint Louis team when they are playing at home. But they have been exposed on the road this season. They lost by 5 at Auburn and by 28 on a neutral to Maryland. They also only beat Providence by 3 on a neutral in their three games away from home this season.
Iona is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 26.7 points per game and covering the spread by an average of over 15 points per game. The Gaels want revenge from a 67-68 loss at Saint Louis last season as 4-point dogs. Now we are getting them as home underdogs in the rematch when I think they should be favorites here.
Iona is actually +13.4 points per game based on what their opponents score and allow on average this season. Saint Louis is a solid +11.3 points per game using the same criteria, but still 2.1 worse than Iona. The Billikens do have the advantage in strength of schedule, but I don't think that's enough to justify them being favored on the road here.
Iona is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 non-conference games. The Gaels are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game. Saint Louis is 18-38 ATS in its last 56 road games vs. teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game. The Gaels are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games. The Billikens are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bet Iona Tuesday.
I'll take my chances with Georgia Tech as a 4.5-point home favorite against rival Georgia. The Yellow Jackets come into this game with a 5-3 mark, but there's nothing to be ashamed about with their 3 losses, as they have all come against what looks to be NCAA Tournament teams in Utah, Marquette and Iowa. All of those were also played on the road or at a neutral site. I think the perception for some is that getting points in a rivalry game is the way to go, but that's not been the case in this series. The favorite has covered 7 of the last 9 meetings. Georgia is also just 1-6 ATS last 7 in true road games and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs a team with a winning record. Yellow Jackets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 at home. Give me the Yellow Jackets -4.5!
This is a play on the ST. JOSEPH'S HAWKS+11 1/2 for our Tuesday Free Play. Temple has won three straight games, covering all three as well as each of those victories came by double-digits and now the Owls are seeing their first inflated number of the season following their best stretch of play. They opened the season 2-4 with three of those losses coming as favorite which includes an overtime loss to Wagner by 16 points and are now being asked to lay double-digits for just the second time this season. Overall, Temple is just 3-2 at home and being a below average team on both sides of the floor, this is too many points to be laying. The Hawks are coming off a 97-80 home loss to Fairleigh Dickinson on Saturday as 12-point favorites and that was a bad non-quality loss as the first three defeats came against Houston, Georgia and South Florida. St. Joseph's is 1-0 on the road which was a victory over Penn in the game prior to the loss against the Knights and it looks to get back on track in a game the Hawks may have been guilty looking ahead to. This is a big rivalry for both sides with the Philadelphia Big 5 Title in play every season between the city schools and St. Joseph's and Temple remain the only unbeaten teams in the Big 5 this year. St. Joseph's is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 road games off a home loss by 10 points or more. Here, we play on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a home favorite. This situation is 119-62 ATS (65.7 percent) since 1997. Play (615) St. Joseph's Hawks
Whenever Ottawa is favored I have to seriously look at the other side.
The underdog Kings are a fit. They have a winning road mark. They also have revenge for a 3-2 overtime home loss to the Senators from Nov. 27.
So the Kings won't be lacking incentive especially coming off a 4-2 home loss to the Hurricanes this past Saturday.
Ottawa is 2-7 in its last nine home games. The Kings are 27-12 the past 39 times facing a foe with a losing record.
Mike Lundin's Kings vs Senators Free Pick
This looks like a good spot to back the Kings to bounce back from a 4-2 loss to Carolina. The Kings are 27-12 in their last 39 vs. a team with a losing record and 20-6 in their last 26 vs. Atlantic division opponents.
The Sens are 8-17 in their last 25 vs. Pacific division teams and 2-7 in their last 9 home games.
The Senators have won four of their last five overall but it's hard for a team with limited talent to play at a high level for an extended period of time. FREE PICK ON LOS ANGELES KINGS.
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