Sunday 12/11/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 358299

    #16
    Jeff Siegel's National Best Plays - Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022

    December 11, 2022

    Jeff Siegel’s National Best Plays for Sunday, December 11, 2022

    Gulfstream Park 10th Race – Post time: 4:35 ET
    9-Erna (5/2)

    Tipped her hand in an excellent debut performance last month at Aqueduct when getting tagged near the wire in a middle distance maiden juvenile turf event while winding up almost four lengths clear of the rest. It must be noted that the filly who beat her – Liguria – subsequently was shipped to Del Mar and captured the Jimmy Durante Stakes-G3 in stylish fashion, and we highly doubt there is anything as good as she in this affair. The daughter of Curlin shows three nice recent breezes to tick her over, so with the switch to Luis Saez and at 5/2 on the morning line, she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.

    *

    Los Alamitos 5th race – Post time: 2:29 PT
    3-Commander Carl (3-1)

    Showed little in his debut at Del Mar in early September when finishing far back in a maiden special weight sprint but left that form far behind in his second career outing when earning a strong speed figure in an authoritative maiden $50,000 score at Santa Anita last month. Protected today in a sign of confidence in this starter allowance sprint, the son of Midshipman retains winning pilot Edwin Maldonado, shows a pair of sharp workouts since raced, and catches a field that should allow him to be the controlling speed at this abbreviated five and one-half furlong distance. Listed at 3-1 on the morning line, the Dan Blacker-trained sophomore offers excellent value in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
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    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 358299

      #17
      Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis

      December 11, 2022 | By Al Cimaglia

      Cal Expo has a 10-race card ready to go and there will be a Pick 5 carryover of $13,803.13. The 0.20 Pick 4 starts in Race 7. The sequence has a $20,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus. On Friday night the Pick 4 had a hefty $37,695 in the pool.

      Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

      Race 7

      4-Instant Wynn (8-1)-Paced the back half in 57.3 in a needed start to finish 2nd. Now Plano takes the lines and that shouldn't hurt chances. This 3-year-old filly is worth a swing and should offer a solid price.
      5-Hang Ten Tuck (8-1)-Makes the 2nd start on Lasix after pacing the 2nd half in 56.2. Also, had the fastest last quarter in this field (.28). Now tries Lasix for the 2nd time and is another price shot that could take a picture.
      7-SB Prince Archie (2-1)-This 3-year-old is 0-15 lifetime but has hit the board 8 times. The 2-1 morning line is tough to swallow but did face better in last. Willing to use at a short price with long shots playable in later legs but isn't a cinch.

      Race 8

      2-Prom Queen (3-1)-The Schneider/Mullet combo has been connecting to start the meet and this mare has won 2 in a row. This gal has hit the board in 18 of 33 starts and has taken 8 pictures in 2022. Best to respect chances of a 3-Peat, has done well at Hoosier (44-12-7-3).
      3-Nebble Hanover (9/5)-Has been an odds-on winner in the last couple to start the meet and has looked the part. Similar to the one above, likes to win. Has captured 8 of 32 this year and will be another small price in what looks to be a 2-horse race.

      Race 9

      2-Salary (4-1)-Won the 1st start in town easily, then bumped up, didn't get a great trip and that took its toll. Moves inside from post 8 and that could be the winning difference.
      3-Brooklyn Moonshine (9/2)-Dropped to this level last week and Plano tried a different tactic. Left from the rail and tried to make every call a winning one but wilted down the lane. Will look for a different plan tonight and could make amends.
      5-Delightfully Wild (9/5)-This should be a meaningful drop from the FM Open class and was cashing 3rd place checks versus that kind. This veteran should be a main player at a tiny price.

      Race 10

      3-Winds Of Winter (10-1)-Made a needed start versus better last week and should relish the company. This will be the 2nd time for Lasix and can offer a solid price.
      7-Mr Vlos (3-1)-Comes off a decent try in the 1st start of the meet and now Sobey takes the lines, and he has been doing well. Came the back half in .57 and could be better after a race over the track.
      8-JP Jetty (1-1)-Got up in time in an impressive 1st career start. Starting outside will make it more difficult but looks like the one to beat despite this post draw.

      0.20 Pick 4

      4,5,7/2,3/2,3,5/3,7,8
      Total Bet=$10.80
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      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 358299

        #18
        Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

        Fair Grounds - Race #3
        Picks Notes
        #7 Runninginthemoney He's a pretty reliable finisher with a little versatility in his running style, and he proved a good fit with similar in that solid try last time out. Tough here.
        #1 Tambourine Star Dropper comes off the bench when last seen on LA Derby Day, but it's worth noting he already had a couple chances at this level last season and this team probably isn't going to offer much of a price. Capable.
        #2 Smarty Alex Finisher might be along too late, but he's a decent fit in here while coming in from Indiana, and this barn has done some really good work since heading out on their own last year.
        Race Summary Runninginthemoney should get the right kind of trip in here, and something like his last might be enough to get him home at a playable enough price.

        Fair Grounds - Race #5
        Picks Notes
        #6 Lucky Crusader Price chance comes off the September break, and I think he might be an okay fit at this price with some bounce back hope off the Louisiana Downs clunker last out.
        #4 Overthought He has generally been facing better than he's going to find in this spot, and his Churchill running line last out would keep him in the picture here.
        #7 Plemmonston He's another who has been racing at higher prices and seems like a good fit here, and his form is actually sort of reliable for a horse at this level.
        Race Summary Lucky Crusader should be a good number on the board, and he owns a couple back races that might at least keep him interesting in a spot where a bunch of horses shipping in from out of state might take action.

        Fair Grounds - Race #7
        Picks Notes
        #8 Doctor Nash He has some speed and an ability to settle and finish if needed, but I think he finds a really good spot that might give him first jump on some of the other threats in here. Mid-range price chance.
        #5 Slim Man He rises off the pricey claim while in good form, and this team can always be tough with anything they claim. Think those last two efforts will class up really well here.
        #7 Britain's Kitten He beat Slim Man when they met at Churchill last time out, and I bet he still offers a better price here while racing out of the capable Williamson barn as opposed to 'Man who now goes for the big-name Amoss barn.
        Race Summary Doctor Nash should get a pretty cozy trip near the top, and he might be able to give himself a little cushion into the lane on the pair coming in from those solid Churchill $75,000 spot.
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        • ConleyPicks
          Senior Member
          • Aug 2020
          • 16966

          #19
          Free play from Mike Wynn

          Free Pick: NBA Sacramento +1 1/2 over NY Knicks

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          • ConleyPicks
            Senior Member
            • Aug 2020
            • 16966

            #20
            Free play from Totals4U

            Early Sunday's Free Selection: Houston Texans/Dallas Cowboys under 44

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            • ConleyPicks
              Senior Member
              • Aug 2020
              • 16966

              #21
              Free play from #1 Sports

              Early Sunday's Free Play: Ohio Bobcats +6

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              • ConleyPicks
                Senior Member
                • Aug 2020
                • 16966

                #22
                Free play from Easy Money Sports

                Free Early Sunday Pro Football Selection From Lee
                MINNESOTA +2 1/2

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                • ConleyPicks
                  Senior Member
                  • Aug 2020
                  • 16966

                  #23
                  Free play from Huddle Up Sports

                  Sunday Free Play
                  Buffalo -10

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                  • ConleyPicks
                    Senior Member
                    • Aug 2020
                    • 16966

                    #24
                    Free play from Teyas Sports

                    FREE PICK 12/11 NFL MINNESOTA +2 1/2

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                    • ConleyPicks
                      Senior Member
                      • Aug 2020
                      • 16966

                      #25
                      Free play from Kenny Towers

                      Your Free Pick for Sunday - TB/SF (NFL) OVER 37


                      Played & Documented!
                      2022 Freeplay Record - 37-31

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                      • ConleyPicks
                        Senior Member
                        • Aug 2020
                        • 16966

                        #26
                        Free play from Hollywood Anthony

                        Your Free Play from Hollywood

                        MLB Take CBB Notre Dame +1 1/2

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                        • ConleyPicks
                          Senior Member
                          • Aug 2020
                          • 16966

                          #27
                          Free play from Jim Feist

                          Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Sunday, December 11, 2022
                          12/11 10:00 AM PT / 1:00 PM ET
                          NFL (107) NEW YORK JETS VS (108) BUFFALO BILLS
                          Take: (107) NEW YORK JETS

                          Reason: A key AFC East battle here on Sunday has the first place Bills (9-3) taking on the third place NY Jets (7-5). Both teams have been very good on defense with the Jets ranked 4th overall and the Bills 10th (5th vs Rush). The Jets are coming off a loss at Minnesota last week, 22-27, as a 2.5-point dog. The Bills are coming off a win last week at New England, 24-10, as a 4-point favorite and the game going under the 43.5-point total. They held the Pats to just 60 yards rushing and 242 total yards. The Jets getting right around 10-points here today seems a bit much to me with a good defensive team. Condition might not be bad with some right and moderate winds. Your free play for Sunday will be on the Jets plus the points.

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                          • ConleyPicks
                            Senior Member
                            • Aug 2020
                            • 16966

                            #28
                            Free play from Roz Wins

                            ROZ FREE Selection SUNDAY, DECEMBER 11, 2022
                            FREE
                            NFL
                            114. Bengals -5.5 (10 PT / 1 ET)

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                            • ConleyPicks
                              Senior Member
                              • Aug 2020
                              • 16966

                              #29
                              Free play from Platinum Plays

                              • Your Free Pick: the Rutgers Scarlet Knights -8 over Seton Hall

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                              • ConleyPicks
                                Senior Member
                                • Aug 2020
                                • 16966

                                #30
                                Free play from Nevada Sharpshooter

                                Your free winner for Sunday : Take PHILADELPHIA/NY GIANTS OVER the total of 45

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