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Pick Made: Dec 12 2022 2:48PM PST
AJ Hoffman | CFB Side Fri, 12/16/22 - 3:00 PM
203 Troy -1.0 (-110) Circa Sports vs 204 UTSA
triple-dime bet
Analysis:
You have to give some respect to what Troy's offense has done in the late part of the season. They put up over 42 points per game in their last 3, and if they can come close to those types of numbers their defense is good enough to nearly lock them into a win.
UTSA's defense looked good late in the season, but they were facing 2nd, 3rd and sometimes 4th string QBs.
Frank Harris will see the best defense he has seen all seaso‹n besides the game against Texas, so as great as he looked the last 3 games I think this is a bit of a wake up call for UTSA.
First bowl game for Troy since 2018, and a first year head coach will be fired up for this opportunity.
730pm 540 76ers -8.5 930pm 60 Over 5.5 on Islanders and Coyotes 8pm 56 Wild puck line -1.5 -145
Round Robins 2's and a 3 for $100 a way for $400
730pm 540 76ers -8.5 930pm 60 Over 5.5 on Islanders and Coyotes 8pm 56 Wild puck line -1.5 -145
3pm 204 UTSA -2.5 8pm 544 Over 226 on Knicks and Bulls 830pm 545 Trailblazers +4
Yesterday was close to a solid day. The Boston Bruins lost their first home game blowing a 2-0 lead in the 3rd or we would have had a nice profit. We did hit a 3 for 3 round robin very easily with the 49ers, Golden Knights, and the Sabres. We played it safe and took the Sabres +1.5 even though we liked their chances of winning outright which they easily did. Overall we were down $260 for the day bringing our December bankroll to $8,214.
Both teams enter this Cure Bowl at Exploria Stadium in Orlando, Florida, on 10-game win streaks. Each team has been tremendous offensively as well. Troy has scored 34 points or more in 3 straight contests and won on each occasion by 18 points or more. UTSA has scored 34 points or more in 5 consecutive games.
The difference in this contest will come down to the Troy defense being better than the stop unit of UTSA. Troy has allowed 19 points or fewer in 9 of 13 games this season. The most the Trojans' defense allowed was 28 points to Ole Miss in their season opener. Conversely, UTSA has allowed 30 points or more 6 times in 2022.
College Football teams like Troy playing after Game 9 who is a pick or favorite of 4.0 or less, coming off 3 consecutive wins by 17 points or greater, and have a win percentage of .750 or better, versus a team like UTSA who scored 31 points or more in each of its previous 2 games, resulted in those teams like Troy going 18-2 SU (90%) and 17-3 ATS (85%) since 1990.
4* #203 Troy Trojans (-125) over UTSA Roadrunners —
One of the biggest things that stood out to me immediately was the SOS, something I always check in bowl games. This two teams are nearly identical, ranking 88th and 90th by my looks, meaning their numbers and competition are very comparable.
Troy has dominated against the spread this season, they have won 3 straight, 5 out of the last 6 and 9 out of the last 11.
That has been by way of the defense, which has been impressive on nearly every level …
14th - holding teams 76 yards below their season average
20th - total defense allowed
38th - passing defense
20th - rushing defense
8th - scoring defense
This is a big concern, especially in the rushing game for UTSA which has gotten hot in the last few weeks. The Roadrunners could be without two of their backs, Brenden Brady and Trelon Smith and this is one of the best rushing defenses that UTSA has seen this season.
Two of the most comparable rushing defenses that UTSA has faced have been Texas and Middle Tennessee State, both games UTSA rushed for under 3.8 YPC and rushed for 139 and 167 yards respectively on 44 and 45 attempts. While Troy has only allowed 4 teams to rush for over 125 yards this season.
UTSA has been hot against the spread, but they are just 7-6 ATS on the season. Now they take on an impressive Troy defense and an offense that has put up 8 PPG above their season average over the last 4 weeks. The Trojans have put up 40+ points in B2B games to close out the season and they rushed for over 250 yards in the 2 out of the L3 games.
CFB - Fri, Dec 16 - Troy vs Texas-San Antonio
Wes Reynolds : Troy PK vs. UTSA (Cure Bowl)
Brad Powers : UTSA/Troy OVER 55
Tom Casale : Troy -114 vs UTSA (12/16)
Scott Reichel : UTSA/Troy OVER 55.5 (12/16)
Thor Nystrom : Troy (-1.5) vs Texas-San Antonio
Steve Makinen : Troy (-1) vs. Tx-San Antonio (Cure Bowl)
Steve Makinen : Troy vs. Tx-San Antonio (OVER 54.5) (Cure Bowl)
Brent Musburger : Troy vs. Tx-San Antonio (OVER 54.5) (Cure Bowl)
Brent Musburger : Tx-San Antonio (+1) vs. Troy (Cure Bowl)
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