Wednesday 12/14/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 1 - SO - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $35000 Class Rating: 95

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $20,000 OR LESS SINCE DECEMBER 14, 2020 OR CLAIMING PRICE $32,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 14 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $32,000 (IF DEEMED

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 MIDNIGHT BELLA 9/2
# 1 DAKOTA DANCER 12/1
# 5 CLASSIC LADY 2/1

I think MIDNIGHT BELLA is a competitive choice. Should best this group of horses in this race here, showing respectable figs of late. Has been racing strongly in races of this distance, going 2 out of 9 under similar conditions. Ran a very strong last race. DAKOTA DANCER - Appears to be the type to be helped on Lasix here. Has decent front speed and will most likely fare admirably against this group of horses in this race. CLASSIC LADY - Appears to be the type to be helped with second time Lasix here. Clement has one of the best winning percentages in this group with entries running at this distance and surface.

---

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Tampa Bay Downs

12/14/22, TAM, Race 7, 3.25 ET
12/14/22,TAM,7,1M [Turf] 1:33:01 STARTER ALLOWANCE. Purse $24,500 (includes up to $1,500 FOA - Florida Owners Awards). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $25,000 OR LESS IN 2021 - 2022. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over Since November 14 Allowed 2 lbs. (Races Where Entered For $20,000Or Less Not Considered In Allowances) (Condition Eligibility). (If deemed inadvisable by management to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at One Mile and Forty Yards.).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	3	Its a Wrap	10/1	Lozada C	Arnett Jon G.	SFC	201	21.39	1.33/$1
097.8168	8	Prairie	3/1	Camacho S	Sillaman Richard P.	L	201	21.39	1.33/$1
097.3763	1	Harrow	6/1	Morales P	Hamm Timothy E.	J	201	21.39	1.33/$1
096.9988	6	Smithwick's Spice	6/1	Gallardo A A	Nunn Douglas	E	201	21.39	1.33/$1
096.8473	10	Sandy Lane Kitten	5/1	Quinonez A	Cruz Jesus		201	23.88	1.18/$1
096.3544	5	Dream Liner (BRZ)	9/2	Centeno D	Wilson Tony		201	21.39	1.33/$1
096.0088	9	J Beresford Tipton	6/1	Suarez A	Delacour Arnaud	T	201	21.39	1.33/$1
095.4670	7	Tapsasional	12/1	Castanon J L	O'Connell Kathleen		201	21.39	1.33/$1
093.1070	4	Ohana Empire	20/1	Gonzalez J L	Pimental John I.	W	201	21.39	1.33/$1
091.6039	2	Treasure Run	30/1	Marin S	Rarick Lynn		201	21.39	1.33/$1

Top rated horse With "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - Win% 35.48, ROI 1.71/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -2.1832
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
Workouts Dirt Last 6 (M)

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Gulfstream Park - Race #7 - Post: 3:05pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $70,000 Class Rating: 81

Rating:

#1 RITA MARGA (ML=4/1)
#2 HOT FOOT SUSIE (ML=9/2)


RITA MARGA - Coming off a fifth place finish at Gulfstream Park, some may skip this horse. I'm not. She just missed hitting the show spot, and has pretty decent morning odds today. The improved speed figs over the last three races is solid. Danner drops her in this event conditioned to win. HOT FOOT SUSIE - This horse wins a lot of cash per race around the track. Tops in this event. Lasix can take some getting used to, especially for a filly. They usually hit stride the 2nd time using it, like we have with this horse.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 LIANA B (ML=3/1), #3 SHE'S AWESOME (ML=7/2), #7 MYSTICAL JOURNEY (ML=5/1),

LIANA B - Can't play this runner in today's sprint of 6 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a short distance affair recently. SHE'S AWESOME - Just don't believe she is worth it at the expected odds. MYSTICAL JOURNEY - This entrant hasn't been close at the finish recently. Doubtful that the rating she registered on June 16th will hold up in this contest.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #1 RITA MARGA on top if we're getting at least 3/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:	None

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Evangeline Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 4 - Allowance - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 91

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 FAVORITE WINNER 9/5
# 8 TH MAI TAI TOM 15/1
# 6 PRETTY PILOTO 7/2

I've got to go with FAVORITE WINNER. Overall the Speed Figures of this animal look very good in this contest. Should compete strongly in the early pace clash which bodes well with this group of animals. Have to look at solely on class, with some of the strongest class numbers of this group. TH MAI TAI TOM - He has been running quite well and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the strongest in this field. PRETTY PILOTO - Is a solid choice - given the 85 speed figure from her most recent race. Overall the Equibase Speed Figs of this racer look very good in this contest.

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn National

Penn National - Race 4	W-P-S / Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) / $1.00 Pick 5 (Races 4-8)
Optional Claiming $25,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 89 • Purse: $28,900 • Post: 7:22P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR PENNSYLVANIA BRED OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 14 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 14 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $25,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. TODO SOLA is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * TODO SOLA: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. TAPIT'S GIRL: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. MOONSAFE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race withi n the last 30 days. BETTY'S SMILE: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
5	TODO SOLA	7/2	7/2
2	TAPIT'S GIRL	8/1	6/1
8	MOONSAFE	9/2	9/1
3	BETTY'S SMILE	10/1	10/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	TODO SOLA	5	7/2	Front-runner	84	88	95.0	79.6	71.1
9	PROPOSITION	9	8/1	Front-runner	86	73	89.6	57.6	48.6
3	BETTY'S SMILE	3	10/1	Front-runner	79	75	78.0	73.8	58.8
4	HONORABLE LILLY	4	15/1	Front-runner	79	71	72.4	54.0	37.5
2	TAPIT'S GIRL	2	8/1	Alternator/Front-runner	82	81	64.6	77.6	67.6
7	SIX O'CLOCK SARAH	7	2/1	Stalker	84	79	92.6	77.2	69.7
8	MOONSAFE	8	9/2	Stalker	93	85	72.0	79.6	72.6
1	BRAMBLE BUSH	1	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	88	75	72.0	75.8	65.3
6	TIMELY TRADITION	6	12/1	Trailer	93	83	72.2	75.8	70.8

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turfway Park

Turfway Park - Race 4	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Double 50 cent Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6)
Maiden Special • 1 1/16 Miles • All-Weather • Age 2 • CR: 76 • Purse: $70,000 • Post: 7:25P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 119 LBS. (PREFERENCE TO HORSES THAT HAVE NOT STARTED FOR LESS THAN $30,000).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. WEEHAWKEN is the Lone Front-runner of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * BOLTORO: Horse has a 4F workout since its last race, and th e workout time is faster than its own half-mile time in its last race. GONNA CUT IT: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. PERFECT ROSE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Eq uibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. TIME TO RACE: Maiden finished second in its last race and finished three lengths or more ahead of the third place horse.
1	BOLTORO	3/1	7/2
5	GONNA CUT IT	7/2	7/1
4	PERFECT ROSE	30/1	9/1
2	TIME TO RACE	15/1	10/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
10	WEEHAWKEN	10	7/2	Alternator/Front-runner	74	54	31.3	51.2	39.7
1	BOLTORO	1	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	79	74	66.3	71.1	66.1
9	CATSKILL HUMOR	9	5/2	Trailer	0	0	66.4	66.4	62.4
2	TIME TO RACE	2	15/1	Trailer	73	63	59.7	59.7	51.2
8	NAUTICAL MILE	8	10/1	Trailer	0	0	49.3	49.3	35.8
7	ARRANMORE	7	20/1	Trailer	0	0	49.3	44.6	27.6
5	GONNA CUT IT	5	7/2	Alternator/Trailer	74	65	77.7	61.6	55.1
6	CHICA CHULA	6	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	70	59	71.4	66.9	53.9
4	PERFECT ROSE	4	30/1	Alternator/Trailer	75	68	51.3	55.3	40.8
3	OPTIMIZME	3	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	54.0	54.0	39.5

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Dayton Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 14 - Post: 8:46 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 66 - Purse:$12000 - HOLLYWOOD MINI SERIES FILLIES & MARES N/W 1 PM RACE OR $10,000 LIFETIME

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 4 HOTSHOT BETSY 2/1
# 10 HOPE IM AN ICON 3/1
# 6 CRUISIN FLOWER 8/1

Look no further than HOTSHOT BETSY as the bet in here. Could provide us a win based on respectable recent TrackMaster Speed Ratings - earning an average of 72. It's tricky to consider based only on class, but this filly has among the best class figures of the grouping. Earned a 64 TrackMaster speed fig last out. A duplicate showing here should get the win this time. HOPE IM AN ICON - Could beat this group, just look at the speed figure - 63 - from her last outing. CRUISIN FLOWER - Has been running solidly lately and her style of running should result in a sharp performance.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at The Meadows

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 8 - Post: 3:05 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 72 - Purse:$11800 - CD 2-6YO F& M WINNERS OF 2 BUT NOT MORE THAN 4 EXT PM RACES OR $30,000 LIFE

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 5 CATHY HANOVER 3/1
# 3 TWO FRISKIE TO PET 5/2
# 6 LIL CHAR 7/2

Really keen on the chance of CATHY HANOVER taking down the winner's share for this one. Has one of the strongest win statistics in the grouping and may be able to add to those figures right here. The wagering panel will always toss in a standardbred from the 5 post here at The Meadows, definite exotic possibilities. TWO FRISKIE TO PET - Certainly should be given a look based on the really strong speed fig recorded in the last contest. This interesting entrant and Simpson have an excellent working relationship. In the money percent for this match is high. LIL CHAR - Have to make Merriman the wager here if only for the last thirty days win percent. Big chance for the ultimate prize. We can't pass on this filly given one of the best driver/trainer figures around.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Flamboro Downs

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 9
5	5	POINTOMYGRANSON	2/1	Kelly, Colin - 15	505.16
3	3	LORD ANTHONY	4/1	Coulter, Scott - 16	500.88
4	4	CAPITANO ITALIANO	3/1	Macdonald, Brett A - 16	492.25
1	1	P L JACKSON	5/2	Cullen, Travis A - 26	485.42
2	2	J J POWERBALL	6/1	Sorrie, Austin - 16	467.02
7	7	PRESTIGE SEELSTER	10/1	Borth, Tyler J - 12	443.41
6	6	ATTHEBEACH HANOVER	8/1	Fillion, Samuel - 9	420.34

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Monticello Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 8
2	2	BLATANTLY BEST	4/1	Taggart, Jim Jr - 18	468.43
7	7	THISJETSABOOKIN	5/2	Stratton, Cory - 15	438.32
4	4	IT'S RIGGED	6/1	Devaux, Jim - 15	438.26
5	5	BIG MONEY MIKE	3/1	Sowers, Mcgwire - 15	429.30
1	1	BUELLER	8/1	Parker, Brandon - 15	423.40
6	6	BURNING MIDNIGHT	7/2	Chindano, Joseph Jr - 17	410.63
3	3	HARD WORKIN' MAN	9/2	Dibenedetto, Kyle - 8	400.77
8	8	NIHILATED TRUTH	12/1	Harp, Rick - 5	370.52