2-22-09

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS NBA

RAPTORS

Game: New York Knicks vs. Toronto Raptors Game Time: 2/22/2009 12:05:00 PM Prediction: Toronto Raptors Reason: I'm laying the points with TORONTO. The Raptors should have plenty of motivation this afternoon as they got embarrassed 127-97 at New York on Friday night. The Knicks jumped on top early (75-50 at halftime!) and pounded the Raptors the entire way. Nate Robinson and co. were really getting "excited" about their second half baskets, even after the game was already out of hand, and I don't expect that to have sat very well with the Raptors. With Friday's loss, the Raptors are just 7-13 (SU and ATS) their last 20 trips to New York. However, they've have had plenty of success against the Knicks, when the teams have met here at Toronto. In fact, they've won eight straight meetings here, going 6-2 against the number. Looking back further and we find the Raptors at 15-5 the last 20 times that they were a host in this series. While he struggled, the Raptors got Chris Bosh, their best player, back last game. He's had a game under his belt now and I expect a much better performance this afternoon. For all their struggles, the Raptors are still 4-2 ATS the last six times that they were favored by four points or less. That includes a 2-0 ATS mark the last two times that they were home favorites of four or less. Look for them to improve on those numbers as they continue their homecourt dominance in this series, avenging Friday's loss with a solid win and cover of their own. *Eastern Conf. GOM

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-22-09

BURNS NCAA

Basketball (NCAA)

GEORGIA TECH

Game: Clemson vs. Georgia Tech Game Time: 2/22/2009 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Georgia Tech Reason: I'm taking the points with GEORGIA TECH. The Tigers bring the much better record to the table and they're off an impressive victory. However, that doesn't mean that they'll follow it up with another victory, as they've alternated wins and losses all of February. Prior to the win over the Terps, they lost outright at Virginia, a team with a worse overall record than Georgia Tech. Including that result, the Tigers are 1-4 ATS the last five times that they faced a team with a losing record, after 15 or more games of the season had been played. Looking back further and we find them at a money-burning 8-15 ATS (9-14 SU) the last 23 times that they faced a team with a losing record, through 15 or more games. With only one win in their last six, (five straight losses) the Yellow Jackets have admittedly been struggling. However, a closer look shows that they've still managed to go 3-3 ATS in those games. Despite failing to cover last time out, they've still gone a highly profitable 25-12 ATS their last 37 lined games, after having lost three or more consecutive games. The last time they lost five in a row, they responded with a win over the highly ranked Demon Deacons. As demonstrated by their victory over Wake Forest, if playing well, the Yellow Jackets are capable of competing with top tier teams. Note that they've seen five of their past 10 games decided by five points or less - always a bonus when getting a "touchdown" or more to work with. The Yellow Jackets have had plenty of success against Clemson here over the years. In fact, they've won 12 of the last 15 meetings here. In addition to trying to snap their worst losing streak in three years, the Yellow Jackets will have some added motivation from having lost by 14 at Clemson, a game they trailed by only three at halftime. Look for the Jackets to keep it up for the entire game this time, as play they give their best effort this month and come away with at least a cover. *ACC Annihilator
RUTGERS

Game: West Virginia vs. Rutgers Game Time: 2/22/2009 3:00:00 PM Prediction: Rutgers Reason: I'm taking the points with RUTGERS. I'm taking the points with RUTGERS. I respect the Mountaineers and having won with them in their recent 93-72 destruction of Villanova, I know that they are capable of blowing teams out. That said, I feel that they are over-valued here and this number is too high. The Villanova game was at home, where the Mountaineers are much stronger. Looking at their recent road games and we find them at 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS their last three away games. Granted, those teams were all much stronger than Rutgers. However, I believe that the Scarlet Knights will also put up a much stronger fight than most are expecting. While the Mountaineers, 2-4 SU when coming off a conference win, are a solid team and have been playing well, they're still relatively young and inexperienced. Off back to back big wins and with bigger games looming in their future, I feel it will be easy for them to suffer a letdown against lowly Rutgers. Looking at the Knights' recent games and we find that they've quietly gone a profitable 5-1 ATS their last six games. While they only won one of those games (76-52 win vs. Depaul) NONE of the losses came by greater than 10 points. Last time out, they traveled to Villanova and gave the Wildcats all they could handle. They were down six at the break and had the lead with 10 minutes to go. While they eventually lost by 10, they gained some confidence that they can play with anyone, anywhere. They played well on both sides of the ball and had plenty of positive energy. Look for them to bring that energy to the gym again this afternoon as they continue their recent run of pointspread success and improve to 10-5 ATS on the season, when listed as underdogs.
MINNESOTA

Game: Northwestern vs. Minnesota Game Time: 2/22/2009 7:00:00 PM Prediction: Minnesota Reason: I'm laying the points with MINNESOTA. I won with the Wildcats when these teams faced each other last month. The Wildcats were favored by a point and they won by nine. However, that was at Northwestern, while this game is at Minnesota. With these two teams, as with many, that's an entirely different ballgame. Despite their recent skid, the Gophers remain an outstanding 14-2 in home games, outscoring opponents by a commanding 71.4 to 59.5 margin. Conversely, the Wildcats are a poor 2-6 SU/ATS on the road, getting outscored by a 63.5 to 58.4 margin. Looking back further and we find that the Gophers have won 34 of 50 at home. During the same span, the Wildcats have just seven wins in 31 tries on the road. While they once appeared a lock for the NCAA Tournament, the Gophers, who were nationally ranked for seven consecutive weeks, now find themselves in a position where they will probably need to win (at least) three of their final four regular season games, in order to secure a spot. The next three games all come against stronger opponents - Illinois, Wisconsin and Michigan - meaning that this one is essentially a "must win" game. The Gophers have won back to back home games in this series with those victories coming by an average of 11 points. Playing a critical game, I look for them to respond with a huge effort, avenging last month's loss in convincing fashion. *Main Event

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-22-09

Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: No. 18 Illinois had won 10 straight home games prior to its game with Penn State on Wednesday. However, the Illini fell 38-33 to the Nittany Lions in what was the fewest combined points in a Division I game since Monmouth beat Princton back on Dec 14, 2005. It's not the first time the Illini have had trouble putting point on the boards, as Illinois lost at Minnesota back on Jan 29, 59-36. Bruce Weber's done a nice job with this year's team, considering the Illini were only 16-19 last season. Illinois enters this game 21-6 overall and 9-5 in the Big 10, which pretty much assures them on an NCAA bid. The 7-0 Tisdale has averaged 11.0-4.0 after averaging just 3.6-1.7 last year, while the 6-9 Davis has improved from averages of 2.6-1.8 to 10.6-7.8 this year. Veteran guards McCamey (11.8-4.8 APG), Meachem (10.0) and Frazier (5.4-4.8-5.3) have been very good, with Legion (4.20 and Brock (4.7) adding depth. One can't ignore the job done by Thad Matta of Ohio State, either. The Buckeyes went all the way to the championship game in 2007, losing to Florida. Then, after freshman Oden, Conley and Cook all left, Matta led the Buckeyes to an NIT title last year. Gone from that team are guard Butler (15.0-5.9 APG), forward Hunter (9.9-6.5) plus the 7-0 Koufos (14.4-6.7), who left after his freshman season. Seven games into this season, Ohio St lost the 6-5 Lighty (9.7-5.1), who had been a part of 57 wins the last two years. OSU comes in 17-7 (7-6 in the Big 10), and 'fighting' for a postseason NCAA berth. The 6-7 Turner (17.2-7.3) has been one of the league's best players, while guards Buford (11.4), Diebler (11.3) and Simmons (7.2) form a solid group. The 6-8 Lauderdale (4.9-4.0) has really not blossomed and highly-touted 7-0 freshman Mullens (9.3-5.0) has NOT lived up to expectations. However, the Buckeyes need this game much more than Illinois and one can't ignore Illinois' road play in the Big 10 since the first of the year. The Illini have lost at Michigan by 10, at Michigan St by six, at Minnesota by 23 and at Wisconsin by 13. Their wins have come at Northwestern (outscored the Wildcats 17-2 to win 60-59!) and at Indiana (1-13 in the Big 10). The Buckeyes return home where they are 13-2 on the season, off consecutive losses at Wisconsin (five points) and Northwestern (three points). There is little "margin of error" left in Ohio State's season and this game is HUGE, as the Buckeyes look to avoid their first three-game slide of the season. Ohio State has already knocked off two ranked teams this year at home, defeating then-No. 12 Purdue 80-72 in OT on Feb 3 and winning 64-58 over then-No. 19 Minnesota on Feb 7. OSU is allowing just 58.2 PPG at home, while holding opponents to 39.5% from the floor. The Illini average just 60.4 PPG,as the team's three-point shooting is just 26.9% in away games. The Buckeyes are 5-1 SU at home this year in Big 10 play and have won 26 of their last 29 conference home games and No. 18 Illinois is "in their sights" today. Las Vegas Insider on Ohio State (8*).

Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: Syracuse was snubbed by the NCAA tournament two years ago but last year's team was not surprised when it failed to get an NCAA bid. While Boehieim lost the 6-11 Greene (17.7-7.2) after just one season, fellow freshman, PG Flynn (17.5-6.1 APG), has returned for his sophomore year. Syracuse opened this season 16-1 but then dropped SIX of eight games before beating struggling Georgetown in OT last Saturday. It should be mentioned that Syracuse has faced SIX ranked teams during that stretch, going 1-5. As for Villanova, Jay Wright saw all five starters return from last year and the Wildcats have been in the top-25 all season. They enter this game ranked 12th with a 21-5 record (9-4 in the Big East). The 6-8 Cunningham (16.5-7.1) leads the team in scoring and rebounding, joined by the 6-6 Anderson (7.4-5.7) and the 6-7 Clark (5.1-3.9)m in the frontcourt. Scottie Reynolds (15.5-3.8 APG) is the team's backcourt leader with Fisher (11.0) and Stokes (10.1) both scoring in double digits despite coming off the bench in most games. Redding (6.7-4.9) typically starts with Reynolds and Pena (6.4-5.1) adds depth. Syracuse is not as deep as Villanova but Flynn is joined by vets Devendorf (15.6) and Rautins (10.1) to form an excellent backcourt. Harris (12.6-8.0) is just 6-4 but he's terrific rebounder at small forward, joined on the frontline by the 6-9 Onuaku (10.6-7.4) and the 6-9 Jackson (7.7-5.9). I've never been much of a fan of these 'Cats or Wright, who I believe has underachieved since coming to Villanova. The 'Cats exploded for 94 points at Providence on Feb 4 and then scored 102 vs Syracuse (in the Wachovia Center, not The Pavillion) and 102 vs Marquette (back in The Pavillion) in their next two game. However, Villanova has "returned to earth" in its last two games, losing 93-72 at West Va and struggling at home vs a mediocre Rutgers team, winning 82-72, as 16-point favorites. Syracuse is ready for some revenge after allowing 102 points on Feb 7 and is well-rested, not playing since Valentine's Day. Syracuse is 14-2 SU at home, where it averages 82.1 PPG and a win here will not only give Boeheim his 791st career win but will give 19-7 Syracuse its 20th win of the year, giving Boeheim 20 wins (or more) for the 31st time (a record!) in his career. Daytime Dominator on Syracuse (7*).

: Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: The Suns had no problem adjusting to life without Amare Stoudemire, as after scoring 140 and 142 points against the Clippers in Alvin Gentry's first two games as the team's head coach, the Suns (with Stoudemire sidelined) beat the Thunder on Friday night, 140-118! Is it possible the Suns can continue their offensive "rebirth" against the Celtics? The Celtics are without Kevin Garnett (16.3-8.8) who keys their defense but it's not KG alone responsible for Boston allowing 92.0 PPG (2nd to only Cleveland in points allowed). The Celtics also rank No. 1 in both opponents' FG percentage (42.5) and three-point percentage (33.8). The Suns have made 59.8 percent from the floor in their last three games, including a ridiculous 51.1 percent of their three-point attempts over the last two. My analysis for this game is "short and sweet." With KG out, I expect the suns to try and utilize Shaq more (which will slow down the pace of the game) plus Doc Rivers is fully aware his team can't 'run' with the Suns and win this one. The Celtics have allowed triple digits just 16 times this year, four of those coming in OT games. The most they've allowed in any game is 111 points (in a 119-111 win over the Warriors back on Nov 26) and I don't see the Suns coming anywhere near their recent outputs. This just in, the Celtics (even sans KG) are NOT the Clippers or Thunder. NBA Total of the Month Bos/Pho Under (9*).

Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: North Carolina's shocking loss at Maryland has surely given both Wake and Duke some hope of catching the Tar Heels in the ACC (NC is 10-3 with Wake and Duke at 7-4). However, the loser of this game all but gives up any chance at the regular season title. Both teams have struggled lately, as after a 16-0 start, Wake is just 4-4 since and Duke comes in having lost FOUR of six ACC games since opening the year 18-1 overall, including 5-0 in the ACC. The Dookies did beat St John's 76-69 on Thursday (to move to 21-5 overall), but who's counting? Wake's been led by two outstanding sophomores in guard Teague (20.0-3.5-3.8) and the 6-9 Johnson (13.8-7.9), joined by 6-9 freshman Aminu (13.2-8.2). Duke's three double digit scorers are the 6-8 Singler (16.3-7.9), swingman Henderson (15.6-4.8) and guard Scheyer (13.3-3.7-2.8). Both teams have excellent depth, although Wake is a little more athletic than Duke. However, let's note that when Duke lost at Wake 70-68 back on Jan 28 (Dookies were ranked No. 1 at the time), the Blue Devils were an abysmal 33.3 percent from the floor, including 4-of-22 from behind the arc. How could Duke possibly be any worse and yet on the road, fell by just two points on a last-second follow-up by Wake! It's been 13 years since Wake Forest swept a regular-season series from Duke and clearly in the Coach K era, there's been a major 'class' difference between the two programs. There's little argument that Wake has as much if not more talent that Duke this year but I'm still taking Coach K over Dino Gaudio in a revenge spot like this, with so much on the line. Wake's last win at Cameron Indoor Stadium came back on Jan 11, 1997, when the Demon Deacons won, 81-69. Tim Duncan led that Wake contingent and last I looked, Tim's in the NBA. Duke's won 10 straight home games over Wake since that time and No. 11 in a row comes tonight, "with room to spare!" Bailout Blowout on Duke (7*).

[horsey]

Re: 2-22-09

Wayne Root

Chairman- Duke
Millionaire- Iowa
Moneymaker- Illinois

[Guest]

Re: 2-22-09

BIG AL

3* Pistons

3* Minn. Gophers