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4% Washington (9:00 ET): The 10-2 Huskies have to go to the Lone Star State (San Antonio) to face Texas in the 30th Alamo Bowl, but that’s the only disadvantage I’m seeing for them here. QB Michael Penix Jr, who led the FBS in passing (4354 yards), has announced he’ll be returning to Seattle for next season and he’ll be playing in this bowl game as well. Meanwhile, the primary weapon for the Texas’ offense - RB Bijan Robinson - has decided to opt out. That is significant as we’re talking about a likely 1st round NFL draft pick that is fourth in program history with 3,410 rush yards.
Texas was a pretty maddening team in 2022. The Longhorns ranked higher than any other Big XII team in my power ratings, but underachieved, going just 8-4 SU. I will never forget the inept performance at home vs. TCU where they lost 17-10 as 7.5-point favorites. That was one of three outright losses as a fave for the ‘Horns, whose QB (Quinn Ewers) is inconsistent at best and I’d say they’re at a major coaching disadvantage with Steve Sarkisian matching wits with Kalen DeBoer. The strength of UT is the defense, but I’m hardly expecting an inspired effort from that side of the ball in this one.
A lack of inspiration would not be ideal facing this UW offense which puts up 40.8 PPG and will love playing indoors. In their last regular season game, the Huskies put up over 700 total yards of offense in a 51-33 thrashing of rival Washington State. Not only have two Texas’ running backs opted out (Roschon Johnson as well as Robinson), but linebacker Overshown isn’t playing either. Washington has only gotten points one other time all season and that game saw them pull an outright upset at Oregon (I was on them) as 12-pt underdogs. It would not surprise me if they won outright here as well. Play to +2. 4% Washington
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