Wednesday 12/28/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Gulfstream Park Hotlist - December 28

Dec. 26, 2022


By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
2nd race – (6) Pipito turned in a solid effort against better company and looks best here. (1) Bye Bye David could perk up back on Tapeta. (2) J P Cornetta seems capable of a better effort here. (4) Charming Charlie should be competitive here. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-6. Exactas: 1-6 over 2-4 and 2-4 over 1-6. Doubles: 1-2-4-6 with 2-4-5-6.
3rd race – (4) Unified Conquest takes a big class drop and gets the nod here. (2) Pure Speight won in his last try over this course and deserves attention. (5) Ubiquitous should be well-suited by Taepta. (6) Lost a Legend is in great form and cannot be ignored. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4-5-6.
5th race – (1) Chess’s Dream should welcome a return to turf and pick up a win in this spot. (4) Indy Lyon was second at this level and looks like the one to fear. (5) K.C. Chief has some speed and could be tough to catch. (6) Midnight Hurricane had a useful comeback race and is worth a look here. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-5-6.
7th race – (6) Gam Gam Joann faces weaker company and should be able to return to the winner’s circle. (1) Walks Like a Lady exits a maiden win on turf and could be a factor here. (7) Tizmet likes Tapeta and should not be ignored. (9) Flip My Id fits in nicely in this field. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-6-7-9. Doubles: 1-6-7-9 with 3-8-9-11.
8th race – (8) She’s a Joy took a nice step forward in her debut and merits top billing here. (11) Cloudy Bay showed promise in her turf and will be a main threat. (3) Kindness Is Free might like turf. (9) Cahuilla may appreciate getting back on turf. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-8-9-11.

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Turfway Park - Race #8

#8 Droppin G's	He's back quick after handling his last condition going short here on the 21st, and he has historically been pretty tough over the local footing when racing outside of stakes company. Dangerous right back.
#4 Jack a Rose	He'll make his local debut after a dud on the Fair Grounds main track last month, and his back turf form makes him pretty appealing on the move to the synthetic footing. Forward player should be in the hunt into the far turn.
#11 Gunton Roe	He has enough speed to find a forward spot and hope to not lose too much ground from this draw, and he makes a good bit of sense in here for a team that has been lights out to start the meet.
Race Summary	Droppin G's wheels back with some appeal while spying the speed here on the stretchout, and he might offer a decent enough price right back off the last one.

Turfway Park - Race #9

#3 American Blaze	Not sure which guy we're going to get here, but he has some room to bounce back while turning back around one bend for this. His only sprint try produced a 17-length Ellis maiden-win, so let's see if he can bring something better here.
#9 Ghent	There are a couple other forward players lined up in here, but this dropper might be most committed to battling for the front, and he looks like the type who can be a threat in this spot if he can shake loose nearing the lane.
#10 Chiseler	The Woodbine form fits in here, but I wonder if he's a little bit better on the turf than he is on the synthetic right now. That said, he's dropping off a string of four straight stakes tries and might appreciate lining up alongside this group.
Race Summary	American Blaze has been no threat in his two route starts, but it certainly wouldn't be a surprise to see him bounce back with something better while getting back around one turn. Chance to spy and finish.

Turfway Park - Race #10

#4 Oma the Great	She has only shown brief chasing pace throughout her four-race career, and she hasn't shown any real interest in finishing a race -- that said, she's trying the softest spot of her career, and I don't feel like there is a whole lot to be afraid of in here, so some cheap kind of speed might be dangerous. Why not.
#11 Martique Miss	Her best stuff would make her a player in here, but she's not brimming with excuses as she heads into this 13th career start. Still, she's probably a good fit with a page full of tries against better.
#10 Crystal Snow	She moved up a bit when sent long for the first time, and she might like the new footing while trying maiden claimers for the first time. Wouldn't shock me for a piece.
Race Summary	Oma the Great should be quick enough to find herself right up on the splits, and I wouldn't be totally shocked to see one of the forward players hang on in here. Think #1 Shrimpie is also worth including here at a price.

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Turf Paradise - Race #3

#6 ALL NATIVE (6-1)	Had some road trouble at this distance two back, worth a price shot.
#3 Y NOT SIZZLE (7-2)	Top grass money-earner in field needed last, expect improvement.
#1 QUEEN OF LOVE (4-1)	Got the jump on ‘Native,’ led clear, got caught by the 8-5 winner.
Race Summary	ALL NATIVE broke a step slow at one mile two starts back, trailed while saving ground into the far turn behind a back-pedaling rival, then rallied widest to finish behind two runners she faces again today. She’s worth a win and place bet at 6-1 on the morning line.

Turf Paradise - Race #4

#4 ELUSIVE LOVE (10-1)	Projects ideal trip and can spring upset if he recaptures Golden Gate form.
#1 HAMMERING LEMON (4-1)	Wired field from post 11 off Evans claim two back at this distance.
#7 FOREMAN (2-1)	Settled for minor awards as the favorite in his last three starts.
Race Summary	ELUSIVE LOVE had a win, two seconds and a third in his last six sprints at Golden Gate. He rallied mildly in a pair of comeback tries at Fresno on short rest. He gets pace to rally into and should be used in all gimmick wagers. Play a 1-4-7 exacta box.

Turf Paradise - Race #5

#1 RAVINA LANE (3-1)	Can stalk and pounce if ready for first start in three months off the claim.
#4 KOVACS (8-1)	Take a cue from Hammering Lemon (see 4th race) to upgrade or downgrade this one.
#2 BUMPY CUP (6-1)	Carried his speed to second-out victory, barn sports 20-percent ‘repeat’ rate.
Race Summary	RAVINA LANE drops in for the cheapest claiming price of his 17-race career off the re-claim by Diodoro. He will be an underlay in the wagering but still like his chances to notch his first win in seventh start at Turf Paradise. Bet to win and place.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs

PURCHASE

Delta Downs - Race 7	Exacta / Trifecta (.50 min.) / Superfecta (.10 min.) Daily Double (Races 7-8) ($1 min.) / Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9)
Claiming $4,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 7:43P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE NOVEMBER 28 ALLOWED 3 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 28 ALLOWED 6 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $3,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. SILVER N LAI is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SILVER N LAI: Today's race is a route, horse is a Front-runner and is in post position one. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. BINDIN G: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. BIRTHDAY PARTY: Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer. Horse's average winning distance is within half a fu rlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
2	SILVER N LAI	7/2	3/1
1A	BINDING	9/5	6/1
4	BIRTHDAY PARTY	6/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	SILVER N LAI	1	7/2	Alternator/Front-runner	84	80	70.2	79.6	76.6
1	HELLUVA LIFE	3	9/5	Stalker	79	75	59.6	75.4	65.9
5	HONOR MY SPEED	5	9/2	Stalker	83	78	57.4	71.4	60.4
4	BIRTHDAY PARTY	4	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	90	78	56.8	71.0	64.5
7	AKHNAS	8	8/1	Trailer	85	80	65.4	70.8	60.8
3	ALWAYS A CATCH	2	8/1	Trailer	81	73	63.8	67.2	56.2
1A	BINDING	6	9/5	Trailer	94	88	47.0	81.6	77.6
6	JUSTA SWINGING	7	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	79	78	72.4	55.6	41.1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx RacingPURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race 8	Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10) / Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta 50 cent Pick 4 (Races 8-11) / 10 cent Superfecta
Stakes • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 106 • Purse: $75,000 • Post: 3:05P
BLITZEN S. - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * BEREN: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. SMOOTH B: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. REPO ROCKS: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MARVALOUS MIKE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. KADRI: Horse has th e highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
9	BEREN	2/1	9/2
4	SMOOTH B	5/1	6/1
6	REPO ROCKS	9/2	8/1
5	MARVALOUS MIKE	10/1	9/1
1	KADRI	10/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
9	BEREN	9	2/1	Front-runner	106	108	108.4	100.2	97.7
4	SMOOTH B	4	5/1	Front-runner	105	105	99.8	102.0	96.0
7	TWISTED RIDE	7	6/1	Front-runner	103	104	96.7	88.3	74.8
1	KADRI	1	10/1	Alternator/Front-runner	102	102	78.4	95.8	83.8
8	FIVE DREAMS	8	6/1	Stalker	100	94	95.2	97.0	82.5
3	GOING TO THE LEAD	3	10/1	Stalker	102	95	92.4	94.2	81.7
6	REPO ROCKS	6	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	109	100	92.4	90.2	82.7
5	MARVALOUS MIKE	5	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	107	103	85.2	96.6	84.6
10	NO CENTS	10	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	102	101	83.8	94.2	78.7
2	WENDELL FONG	2	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	102	99	77.4	91.0	79.5

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10400 Class Rating: 75

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 TRACK BOUND 5/1
# 6 FLYUNDERTHEGRAYDAR 7/2
# 7 FOREMAN 2/1

TRACK BOUND is the best wager in this race. Has been racing very well and has among the strongest speed in the race for today's distance. FLYUNDERTHEGRAYDAR - He has a good opportunity in this contest as handler, Ortiz, has solid win rate with horses going this distance. Has very strong front-end speed and will almost certainly fare solidly against this field. FOREMAN - He has competitive class ratings, averaging 86, and has to be given a chance for this race. Could best this group of horses based on the speed figure - 66 - of his last outing.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Penn National - Race #8 - Post: 9:10pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,600 Class Rating: 71

Rating:

#5 MI GUSTO ES (ML=8/1)
#10 ASK THE UMPIRE (ML=4/1)
#1 JACK SLYE (ML=6/1)


MI GUSTO ES - This pony coming off a good effort in the last month is a strong challenger in my opinion. ASK THE UMPIRE - You'll be making money left and right by turning your gambling cash onto this jockey/trainer combination. This gelding is in nice condition, having run a nice race on December 13th, finishing third. JACK SLYE - Finished fourth at Woodbine last out. Was close at the end and at odds of 6/1 right here, he looks like a possible contender. The 61 most recent race speed fig looks good in black and white.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 DOMINANT DESTROYER (ML=3/1), #3 FORECLOSURE (ML=9/2), #8 JEKYLL ISLAND (ML=5/1),

DOMINANT DESTROYER - Hasn't been on the Penn National oval in the last few weeks. Cause for some concern. Last ran on December 2nd at Woodbine, finishing fifth. Not likely to improve off of that try in today's race. FORECLOSURE - That was simply not a very good showing in the last race. The rating last time out doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's event. Mark this thoroughbred as a possibly overvalued contestant. JEKYLL ISLAND - Penn National isn't cozy quarters to this mount. If you keep betting these kind of 'hanger' types, you're going to be disappointed regularly.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#5 MI GUSTO ES to win at post-time odds of 4/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,5,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,5,10] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Tampa Bay Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 9 - Claiming - 9.0f on the Turf. Purse: $20500 Class Rating: 91

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE ONCE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE NOVEMBER 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 GO MIKE 15/1
# 9 TREASURE RUN 15/1
# 3 HOLD THE SPICE 12/1

GO MIKE looks respectable to best this group of animals and the potential return justifies the hazardous nature of the long odds. Could provide positive returns based on strong recent Speed Figures with an average of 89. With a nice class figure average of 99, has one of the strongest class advantages in this group of horses. Has a very solid record at the distance and surface, which makes me think about this gelding. TREASURE RUN - With Delgado in the saddle guiding him, this gelding will almost certainly be able to break out sharply for this event. Must be given a shot based on the solid speed fig posted in the last competition. HOLD THE SPICE - This gelding is a definite contender based on his earnings per start in turf route events.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #7 - Post: 3:33pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,800 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#5 CHARGAREE (ML=2/1)
#8 FANCY EMPRESS (ML=6/1)


CHARGAREE - I like to bet on this angle, a horse coming back off a strong outing within the last thirty days. This entrant could be tough today, especially since Batista rode last out and now should be better acquainted with this one. Took a significant drop in class rating last out at Mahoning Valley Race Cour. Returning to a similar class in this race. Should perform well in this race. The latest speed rating of 77 is the highest last race speed figure in the group. FANCY EMPRESS - Taking a trip down the class ladder; has the capability to make her presence felt. Trainer, Campbell, has been deliberate with this filly off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. Entered a $5,000 Claiming race at Hawthorne last out and raced on a track listed as good finishing fourth. Should do much better in today's race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 LILAC LACE (ML=5/2), #1 GOLDEN LASSIE (ML=4/1), #6 GIFT FROM MOM (ML=8/1),

LILAC LACE - Doubtful that the speed fig she notched on December 20th will be enough in this affair. GOLDEN LASSIE - Pedestrian rating last out at Mountaineer Park at 5 1/2 furlongs. Don't believe this mount will improve too much in today's event. GIFT FROM MOM - No favorable outcomes for this horse in a sprint race over the last 60 days tells me that this mare is in a tough situation

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #5 CHARGAREE to win if you can get at least 8/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park

PURCHASE

12/28/22, GP, Race 3, 1.10 ET
12/28/22,GP,3,5 1/2F [All Weather] 1:02:02 CLAIMING. Purse $24,000 (includes up to $3,000 FTHA-FOA). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS OR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 122 lbs. Claiming Price $12,500, if for $10,000, allowed 2 lbs.
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	5	Ubiquitous	8/1	Zayas E J	Lightner Mary	JTFEL	100	24.00	1.20/$1
096.4382	3	Barone Cesco	2/1	Rios J M	Walder Peter R.		100	21.00	1.02/$1
096.1743	2	Pure Speight	3/1	Saez L	Hess. Jr. Robert B.		201	35.32	1.06/$1
096.0405	6	Lost a Legend	7/2	Figueroa H	Perez Carlos Luis	W	100	24.00	1.20/$1
095.2877	8	Sand Dune	15/1	Leon S	Abrams Jack		100	24.00	1.20/$1
095.1420	4	Unified Conquest	6/1	Reyes L	Garoffalo Jose	C	100	21.00	1.02/$1
094.1138	1	Jama Dillon	20/1	Jimenez M	Nunn Douglas	S	100	24.00	1.20/$1
093.4126	7	Trinni Summer	10/1	Boraco D	Bayeh Edgar		100	24.00	1.20/$1

Top rated horse With "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 28.00, ROI 0.52/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -3.5618
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
Jockey Turf YTD_Curr*1.5 (M)
*Scratches may change this condition

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today’s Free Gulfstream Park Winning Horse Picks
horse racing handicapper Reggie Garrett

Free Gulfstream Park Racing Picks for Wednesday, December 28th, 2022:

Post Time: 12:10 ET

LIVE HORSE RACING ODDS


Race 1: 10 Chenti
Race 2: 5 Summer Shandee

#1 ONLINE RACEBOOK

The following 6 races are part of today’s Gulfstream Park Rainbow 6
Race 3: 6 Lost a Legend
Race 4: 2 Noble Dreamer
Race 5: 1 Chess’s Dream
Race 6: 3 Red Hurricane
Race 7: 9 Flip My Id
Race 8: 6 Queen Deymar

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Today’s Free Mahoning Valley Race Course Winning Horse Picks
horse racing handicapper Reggie Garrett

Free Mahoning Valley Picks for Wednesday, December 28th, 2022:

Post Time: 12:45 ET

LIVE HORSE RACING ODDS


Race 1: 5 Perfect Picture
Race 2: 2 Silver Matt

#1 ONLINE RACEBOOK

The following 6 races are part of today’s Buckeye Pick 6
Race 3: 5 Hops Petunia
Race 4: 6 Amigo’s Affair
Race 5: 3 American Union
Race 6: 7 Ballroom Blitz
Race 7: 1 Golden Lassie
Race 8: 6 Dyrdek

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Today’s Free Parx Winning Horse Picks
handicapper Reggie Garrett

Free Parx Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, December 28th, 2022:

Post Time: 11:55 ET

LIVE HORSE RACING ODDS


Race 1: 1 Maarty’s Dilemma
Race 2: 7 He’ssosubtle
Race 3: 5 Fed Policy
Race 4: 1 Touring Maryanne

#1 ONLINE RACEBOOK

The following 4 races are part of today’s Parx Pick 4
Race 5: 5 Hometown Hero
Race 6: 8 Musamaha
Race 7: 8 Hightime Valentine
Race 8: 6 Repo Rocks

Race 9: 5 My Kentucky Girl
Race 10: 9 Ournationonparade
Race 11: 4 Strong Breeze

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today’s Free Tampa Bay Downs Winning Horse Picks
horse racing handicapper Reggie Garrett

Free Tampa Bay Downs Racing Picks for Wednesday, December 28th, 2022:

Post Time: 12:30 ET

LIVE HORSE RACING ODDS


Race 1: 1 Dixiemagic
Race 2: 4 Lyrical
Race 3: 7 Gods Glory

#1 ONLINE RACEBOOK

The following 6 races are part of today’s Tampa Bay Downs Ultimate6
Race 4: 3 That’s My Cat
Race 5: 3 Aspen
Race 6: 7 Trizmo
Race 7: 2 Bucktown
Race 8: 2 Broken Hearts Bay
Race 9: 5 Mr. Sarcastic