Saturday 12/31/22 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Noel’s Weekend Winners: New Year’s Eve Value Plays at Gulfstream
December 30th, 2022 by Noel Michaels

Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money.

Noel's selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA's Talking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.

The Championship Meet portion of the Gulfstream Park meet has begun, and we are already in full swing in the best season of racing and wagering that Florida has to offer. The high quality of the Gulfstream schedule is on full display this Saturday as Gulfstream hosts an 11-race New Year’s Eve card that includes six stakes races. All of the races on the card offer big fields and lots of good betting opportunities. I have picked out two of the stakes on the card on which to focus this weekend’s plays. Best of luck, and happy new year!
weekend Television schedule

Friday, Dec. 29: 2:30-5:30 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Saturday, Dec. 30: 2:30-6 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Sunday, Jan. 1: 2:30-6 p.m. on FS2; post time varies on FanDuel TV

Gulfstream Park, Race 8, $125,000 Mr. Prospector Stakes, post 3:41 p.m. ET

The Mr. Prospector is a Grade 3 sprint going seven furlongs that has drawn a full 12-horse field. The race is loaded, and you can make a case for most of the entrants, so any kind of exacta you can hit is going to pay off nicely. Many of the contenders are starting off new campaigns, or may find the distance to be a tad too long or too short for their optimal performance. The horse in the race in mid-season form that seems ideal at seven furlongs is #9 Dean Delivers, who should offer good value on the tote board despite two wins and two seconds in his recent races including a runner-up finish in a restricted stakes two races ago. Dean Delivers was second earlier this year in the Grade 3 Swale Stakes at this track and distance. He’s been in the exacta in eight of nine career starts at Gulfstream but will nevertheless offer value today. Looking around the rest of the field for bargains, #7 Prevalence has only one recent race to his credit, and it was mediocre at best, but the best efforts for Prevalence, including a win last spring in the seven-furlong Grade 3 Commonwealth Stakes at Keeneland, point him out as a horse with a legit chance to win or hit the exacta. Finally, the obvious horse that’s difficult to leave off your tickets is #3 Sibelius, who owns a bunch of strong speed figures and was beaten only two lengths when fourth in the Grade 2 Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes at Keeneland two starts back. Seven furlongs might be a stretch, but he should at least land in the exotics.

The Play: Bet #9 Dean Delivers (15-1) to win. This wide-open race also is worthy of a three-horse exacta box along with #3 Sibelius (3-1) and #7 Prevalence (9-2).

Gulfstream Park, Race 10, $150,000 Harlan’s Holiday Stakes, post time 4:40 p.m. ET

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The Grade 3 Harlan’s Holiday is a 1 1/16-mile dirt race that drew a field of eight, including some familiar veterans of the 2022 Triple Crown trail. It is one of those horses, #4 Simplification, that seems to have landed in an optimal spot to regain his best form, which would make him tough to beat. Simplification was at his best right here at Gulfstream Park starting at this same time a year ago when he won the $150,000 Mucho Macho Man Stakes and later went on to win the Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes. In my opinion he hasn’t been given a chance to recapture his best form in any of his three recent races, which included tough spots like the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby and the Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. He makes much more sense in this more modest Grade 3 spot back at the track where he has enjoyed his best success. Simplification lost to #7 Skippylongstocking in the West Virginia Derby when that horse was in mid-season form and Simplification was coming back from a layoff. The tables are turned today. The outside posts in these Gulfstream two-turn dirt routes are generally disadvantages, so instead of using Skippylongstocking in the exactas, instead try #1 O’Connor, who invaded from South America last time out and creamed a good allowance optional claiming field here at Gulfstream, beating a bunch that included next-out winner Octane and veteran Sole Volante. The last horse to beat O’Connor was a horse named Super Corinto, who has since been imported to the United States and recently won a Gulfstream allowance optional claiming race on Dec. 8 with a big speed figure as the odds-on favorite.

The Play: Bet an exacta box with #1 O’Connor (8-5) and #4 Simplification (5-1). If you also want to make a win bet, go with Simplification if he is near his 5-1 morning line.

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2023 Kentucky Derby Prep Race – Smarty Jones Stakes
Published by Craig on December 29, 2022 | Leave a response

Overview: The Smarty Jones is the start of the Oaklawn Park road to the 2023 Kentucky Derby. This one-mile event leads to the Southwest, Rebel, and Arkansas Derby. Traditionally Oaklawn has delivered big fields in the prep races, but the overall quality has been overtaken by several California and Gulfstream Park horses that have shipped in.

Analysis: Victory Formation is the likely favorite. Brad Cox won the Gun Runner Stakes Monday at the Fairgrounds, and Victory Formation is the dominant speed. Angel of Empire comes from off the pace and is by Classic Empire out of a To Honor and Serve Mare and could improve if the track comes up sloppy.

Communication Memo is sharp and dominated a maiden race on December 16th at Oaklawn Park. The race’s final quarter was fast, and Steve Asmussen has done well in the three-year-old stakes races at Oaklawn Park in recent years. Communication Memo is poised to run a big race on the quick turn-around.

Ten Days Later dominated classy horses at Keeneland and emerged with an 80 Brisnet speed figure in the maiden win. He has five career starts and may have a stamina edge in a race with some lightly raced horses. He was closing on a race track that favored front-runners in his most recent race. His 91 Brisnet speed figure in that race gives him a fighting chance to upset at a small price.

Denington is another with some dirtied-up form. He has been closing in quality races with five-lifetime races, all five at two turns. He cuts back to one mile after three straight one-mile and 1/16 races. He should be fit, and recent works indicate there is still holding form.

Angel of Empire is slower on the speed figures but has the right running style, both his wins were on the dirt, and the one loss was on the demanding Kentucky Downs turf course.

Betting: Victory Formation goes up in class and will face other speeds; he most likely will be an underlay in this spot. Communication Memo is sharp; if he is over 6/1, he might be worth using in daily doubles. My top selection is Ten Days Later, which has the one win and will be closing late into a potentially fast pace. Ten Days Later at 4/1 or higher is the price play in a very competitive race.

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Scott Van Pelt’s WINNERS:
Pitt+8
Kansas State+6.5
Ohio State+6.5
Texans+4.5
Browns+2
Saints+6.5
Colts+5.5

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Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know for Santa Anita - 12/31/22

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December 31, 2022
“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Whatmakessammyrun; 8-Hit the Road
Backups/savers: 1-Lane Way

Forecast: As this is penned, rain is expected throughout the day, and there is no certainty that this race will remain on grass. If there is a surface switch, we will pass the race. Contention runs deep in the Joe Hernandez S.-G3 over the Hillside Turf Course for older horses, many of which have been successful under these conditions in the past. You probably should go fairly deep to have confidence in surviving and advancing. We’ll identify our top three for smaller ticket players while leaning heavily on the horse-for-course theory. Whatmakessammyrun is a perfect three-for-three over this unique layout and with good racing luck and some help up front may be able to produce another winning late bid. Hit the Road has been a highly successful turf miler throughout his career and in fact has never sprinted, though his late kick should be every bit as effective in this shorter trip. He’s been away for 11 months and might just be using this race to get the rust off, bet he has a history of firing fresh, and his past class could carry him through. With Frankie aboard and at 6-1 on the morning line, he’s a must use. Lane Way, first or second in five of six starts over the Santa Anita turf course, has a similar late running style but may be compromised by his rail draw. He’s probably more likely to simply hit the board rather than win but should be included at least as a backup or a saver.

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RACE 2: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Impossible Task
Backups/savers: 7-Order and Law

Forecast: 2-Impossible Task went stale during the fall and was given a breather; he returns on a class drop to the $50,000 claiming level and should benefit significantly from the time off and the easier competition in this main track mile affair. The John Sadler-trained gelding is a two-time winner over the Santa Anita main track and in a race with a projected moderate pace scenario he should be capable of returning to winning form. Order and Law is another that should greatly appreciate this softer assignment and represents the most dangerous of the closing contingent.

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RACE 3: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-England’s Rose; 10-Queen Goddess
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Hopefully, this race will remain on grass. If it is switched to the main track due to rain, we will pass. England’s Rose is winless in four starts this year but hasn’t run badly and is due for some better luck in this year’s renewal of the Robert J. Frankel S.-G3 over nine furlongs on grass. In the frame in her last three starts and a two-time winner over the local sod, the veteran daughter of English Channel will turn seven tomorrow and thus her racing days may be numbered, but her competitive spirit remains and if the race shape doesn’t do her in she could make some serious noise from the quarter pole home. Queen Goddess won the Santa Ana S.-G3 over this course and distance last spring and if ready off a seven month layoff certainly could win. She projects to be forwardly placed in a race that might offer moderate to slow early fractions. We’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play.

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RACE 4: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Wegonahaveagoodtime; 4-American Grit
Backups/Savers: none

Forecast: There’s not much to work with in this maiden $20,000 sprint for older horses. Wegonahaveagoodtime, claimed for $50,000 in late November, returns at the bottom for his new connections, hardly a sign of confidence, but if he’s reasonably healthy this sophomore gelding should be too quick for this modest group. The John Sadler barn hits at 17% with the first-off-the-claim angle, not great but decent enough, so at 3-1 on the morning line he’s the logical top pick. American Grita first timer by American Pharoah that brought $425,000 as a yearling, finally makes it to the races a day short of his five-year-old season. He’s been training with Bob Baffert’s second string so there is no video available but if he can run at all he almost has to be competitive with this bunch. The works look good, but, then again, everything works fast at Los Alamitos.

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RACE 5: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Lasmuigh; 10-Sir Pistolero; 3-Valiancer
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: This race originally was scheduled for turf. If it is transferred to the main track due to rain, we’ll sit it out. Lasmuigh ran well in minor handicaps in Ireland last summer while still a maiden, hitting the board in his last pair while spotting weight to most of his rivals. His form, while not great, certainly should make him quite competitive in this moderate straight maiden turf sprint for juveniles. The Phil D’Amato-trained gelding lands Flavian Prat and has done reasonably well in the morning to indicate he’s fit enough. Sir Pistolero, a first timer by Gun Runner, showed some ability in a recent five furlong gate work sans company in 1:00 and could come up a live item in an open fray. With Frankie taking the call, he has to be used. Valiancer shows the route to sprint angle we like and actually performed quite well in his only other sprint race, his debut, in which he closed well to just miss in a photo last May. Five consecutive attempts over a mile failed to produce the desired results but at this trip the son of Tapiture should be running on strongly late.


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RACE 6: Post: 2:33 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Houndstooth; 5-Bright Leaf
Backups/savers:

Forecast: There’s not much early speed signed on in this starter’s allowance extended sprint, so the improving Houndstooth, second in a similar affair here last fall, should have his chances enhanced by the projected soft early fractions. Solid on numbers, the Steve Miyadi-trained gelding is listed at 3-1 on the morning line and offers a reasonable gamble at that price. Bright Leaf shows a prior win over the Santa Anita main track, fits on figures, and has hit the board in each of his last four starts. This seven furlong trip should complement his second flight, stalking style. We’re reasonably confident the winner will be one of these two, so both should be used in rolling exotic play.

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RACE 7: Post: 3:05 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 10-Katerini; 5-Albayaader; 7-Real Fire
Backups/savers: None

Forecast: This race originally was carded for grass. If it is switched to the main track, we’ll pass. Katerini gets a break in the weights and projects to be prominent throughout, maybe even the controlling speed, in this six furlong sprint for older maiden $50,000 claimers. Runner-up under these conditions in his last two, the Mark Glatt-trained filly always has been vulnerable close home but in a race that should have soft early splits she may be able to stick it out. Albayaader shows up in a seller for the first time and seems certain to appreciate this softer task. She’s a strong fit on speed figures and will be doing her best work late. Real Fire is another showing the dangerous maiden-to-maiden claiming angle with numbers that are good enough to pose a serious threat, and a healthy recent work tab that catches the eye. With Flavian Prat riding her back for John Sadler, the Street Boss filly is a “must use” despite her one-paced, grinding style.

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RACE 8: Post: 3:37 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Samurai Charm; 5-Anacapa
Backups/savers: 7-Lady T

Forecast: Samurai Charm won a pair of hot sprint stakes at Zia Park during the fall in fast time with big speed figures. Can she do the same on the Big Circuit? The veteran daughter of First Samurai is winless in three starts over the Santa Anita main track, so there may be some doubt, but in this year’s renewal of the Las Flores S.-G3 that resembles a conditioned allowance sprint the daughter of First Samurai, with Flavian Prat taking the mount, appears strictly the one to beat based speed figures and current form. Anacapa isn’t quite as fast on numbers as our top pick, but she’s lightly raced and improving and could pose a threat with another forward move. She’s turning back from a series of two-turn events but has won sprinting in the past so the distance switch shouldn’t be a concern. Lady T., first or second in all five starts over the local main track, looks like the most dangerous of the closers and is worth including somewhere on your ticket.

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RACE 9: Post: 4:09 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Altruist; 1-Lovesick Blues; 3-Code Duello
Backups/savers: 4-Creative Peak

Forecast: Here’s another turf sprint that, depending upon the weather, is in jeopardy of being switched to dirt. We’ll pass if it does. Altruist won his debut over this course and distance at 31-1 a year ago October but then disappeared. He returns protected in this first level allowance affair following a series of quick drills that may have him ready to pick up where he left off. The Phil D’Amato barn has strong stats with comebackers (20%) so at 6-1 on the morning line he appears as good as any. Lovesick Blues, like our top pick, is a perfect one-for-one sprinting over the local lawn, and while his recent form is below his best the Steve Miyadi-trained son of Grazen appears capable of snapping back under conditions that favor him. From the rail under Juan Hernandez, the sophomore gelding projects to be prominent throughout and have every chance from there. Code Duello seems a bit better than his 10-1 morning line gives him credit for and offers a reasonable price chance in a wide open affair. He’s another with a previous win sprinting over the Sana Anita lawn and after hitting the board in his last two starts he should be a strong pace factor once again. Creative Peak, yet another with credentials to be a threat at a nice price (12-1 morning line), projects to settle in the second flight and have dead aim from the quarter pole home. He has numbers that fit with these res and goes for a high percentage trainer-jockey combo.

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Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Early Pick 4 Analysis

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December 31, 2022 | By Al Cimaglia
The Big M closes out 2022 with a 14-race card. The feature goes in Race 6, a Claiming Handicap Pace with a $19,000 purse. The 0.50 Early Pick 4 also starts in Race 6. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

2-Ostro Hanover (3-1)-Yonkers invader has made only 11 starts this year and this will be the 5th race since coming off the bench. Faded in last but should be in the mix and this post draw can help. Will lean here over other shippers who haven't had a race over this surface.
5-Arrhythmic Surge (5-1)-Should fit well with this group. Has only 1 win in 16 Big M starts but that came in a lifetime mark of 151. Makes the 3rd start off the bench and could be sitting on a big try.
6-Ballerat Boomerang (9/2)-Engblom pupil has hit the board in 11 of 21 at M1 with 4 pictures and should battle with this crew. Mark Mac grabs lines on this Yonkers shipper and should be forwardly placed throughout.

Race 7

3-High Baller (3-1)-The Alexander barn keeps rolling and Brennan should have this 4-year-old racing near the top of stack. Does good work here and should be in the hunt at the wire.
4-Reinging Deo (6-1)-Will assume there will be some lively fractions and if so, chances for success go up. Stratton can work a stalking trip and be the best down the lane. Hasn't won at M1 (0-7) but this race could set-up nicely for another Alexander trainee.

Race 8

2-Shvaiko (5-1)-Stayed inside in the 1st start since 7-4 which was at this class and caught a shuffle. Did pace a quick mile (151.3) and finished with a 26.4 last quarter. Jimmy Pants takes the lines, and he knows this 5-year-old who has 3 wins in 11 Big M races.
5-Speedy Dominic A (3-1)-Dom is basically a 1-move type and at this class Joe B could work a successful trip. Should be able to get the top but holding a lead can be an issue.

Race 9

1-Ocean Colony (12-1)-Not loving the Yonkers shippers in this race so will look for some value and Zeron should keep this veteran in play. Can race close to the lead and use one brush down the lane to sweep by. Has hit the board in 29 of 63 at M1 with 10 wins.
5-Bobcat Bay (3-1)-Not loving the short price but the Smith barn has posted 45% winners in the last 30 days. Stratton has options, could look to come off a helmet but has the speed to leave for a good seat. Versatile 5-year-old looks like a player.
10-Dontpassme Hanover (8-1)-This is the 3rd race off the bench and it won't be easy from post 10. But there aren't any monsters in this field and does drop. Paced a 150.3 mile in its 1st start back with a 26.2 last panel. Needs a trip but will take a swing at what should be a nice price.

0.50 Early Pick 4

2,5,6/3,4/2,5/1,5,10
Total Bet=$18

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Laurel Park Pick 4 Analysis Saturday, Dec. 31

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December 31, 2022 | By Frank Carulli
Saturday will mark the end of an unforgettable era in Maryland racing. Dale Capuano will retire as the 22nd leading trainer of all time with more than 3,660 wins. He won eight, year-end titles in the state where he was based since 1981 and set the bar with 15 Maryland Million victories. Fittingly, Capuano will send out several contenders in the Late Pick 4 on the Saturday card that shapes up this way:

LRL 6th race (2:56 EST) -- My lasting impression of Capuano was of him taking meticulous notes almost every racing day as the horses made their way from the paddock to the track. With that in mind, make GIRLS LOVE ME – who rallied 5-wide to finish second when claimed in early December – as today’s solo play in the 50-cent Pick 4 sequence. Four of Capuano’s last five claims finished first or second on the barn switch.

LRL 7th race (3:27 EST) -- Capuano’s LOST WEEKEND is the only stakes-placed 2-year-old in the field of 11, but one of many contenders. JOHN HALL raced ‘well off the rail’ when he rallied past the dueling leaders in a debut scenario that could shape up in similar fashion. BYK figures to be part of a lively pace scenario off a pair of blazing workouts at Penn National, where he ran away from a suspect field at first asking for the A-plus barn of trainer Tim Kreiser. FEELING WOOZY, whose first four races produced nine next-out winners -- including his win at 7F – could work out an ideal stalking trip.

LRL 8th race (3:58 EST) -- DIXIE DRAWL rallied for a win, three seconds and three thirds in his last nine starts, but the Capuano trainee will need a good effort against nine entrants who, save for longshot BOBBY G, are a combined 23-for-86 since April of this year. Go deep in this leg of the Pick 4.

LRL 9th race (4:29 EST) – BELLA BETINA returns to 6F, where she finished behind a runaway winner and ahead of two next-out winners at this level two starts back. LADY CLAU takes the class plunge for a sharp barn in her return from a 14-month layoff. She appeared ready for a comeback this spring but showed no published workouts for the next six months. Trainer Jose Corrales sent out three winners at 7-1 odds or higher from his last 10 starters, so be sure to include MERGER OF EQUALS on the ticket. POLISH COOKIE got up to finish a distant third behind the winning favorite, now runs for the cheapest tag of her career. POET IN MY HEART showed improved speed with blinkers and broke her maiden at 7F last out.

Suggested 50-cent Ticket

LRL 6th Race: 4
LRL 7th Race: 2, 3, 6, 8
LRL 8th Race: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7
LRL 9th Race: 2, 3, 6, 7, 12

COST: $60

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jon White: Baffert Sweeps Santa Anita Dirt Races

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December 28, 2022 | By Jon White
Bob Baffert was inducted into the national Hall of Fame in 2009. Since then, he’s continued adding to his accomplishments, such as sweeping a pair of Triple Crowns, first with American Pharoah in 2015, then with Justify in 2018.

On Monday (Dec 26), Baffert made more history by achieving another sweep. No trainer had ever swept all of the dirt races on an opening-day card at Santa Anita…until Baffert did it on Monday. Three of his five wins came in graded stakes races.

Below is a race-by-race look at all five of Baffert’s victories Monday at Santa Anita:

RACE 2. A maiden special weight for 3-year-olds and up at one mile on dirt.

BLETCHLEY PARK lurked in third early, battled for the lead down the lane and prevailed by a neck at 3-1 for Baffert. The six-horse field produced a four-horse blanket finish. Purified, the 7-5 favorite also trained by Baffert, came in second. Palagio finished third, followed by Princip in fourth. The margins were a neck, a neck and a head. It was 29 lengths back to Mastermind in fifth.

Bletchley Park sold for $2.6 million at public auction. As such, he had been something of a disappointment by losing his first four starts until finally earning his maiden diploma Monday. The 3-year-old Kentucky-bred colt by 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist recorded a career-best 81 Beyer Speed Figure in Monday’s triumph.

The $1 Baffert exacta paid $8.90.

RACE 4. A maiden special weight for 2-year-olds at six furlongs on dirt.

FAUSTIN, an $800,000 auction purchase, kicked off his racing career with a sylish come-from-behind victory. Fifth early in the field of eight, he charged to the front after passing the eighth pole and went on to win by 2 3/4 lengths for Baffert as a 4-5 favorite. Another Baffert first-time starter, Sonoran, finished second.

A Kentucky-bred colt by two-time Horse of the Year Curlin, Faustin was credited with an 89 Beyer Speed Figure.

RACE 6. The Grade II San Antonio Stakes for 3-year-olds and up at 1 1/8 miles on dirt.

COUNTRY GRAMMER proved a punctual 3-5 favorite. Hustled to stalk early, he took over at the quarter pole and went on to win convincingly by 4 1/2 lengths for Baffert. Stilleto Boy finished second, while Heywoods Beach ran third in the field of six.

Country Grammer received a 99 Beyer Speed Figure for his San Antonio performance. He is scheduled to make his next start in the $20 million Saudi Cup on Feb. 25, a race he finished second in this year.

The San Antonio win by Country Grammer served as a reminder of just how much Flightline towered over everyone on the American racing stage this year.

In the Grade I Pacific Classic at Del Mar on Sept. 3, Flightline registered a 19 1/4-length victory. Even though Flightline annihilated Country Grammer (and everyone else) in the Pacific Classic, here was Country Grammer winning a Grade II race by daylight Monday at Santa Anita.

Next week I will be revealing my list of the Top 10 performances by a Thoroughbred in the United States during 2022, a list that not surprisingly will be dominated by Flightline.

RACE 8. The Grade I La Brea Stakes for 3-year-old fillies at seven furlongs on dirt.

FUN TO DREAM, sent off as the 5-2 second favorite in the field of seven, forced the early pace, responded gamely when the real test came and won by three-quarters of a length for Baffert. The California-bred Arrogate filly recorded a career-best 94 Beyer Speed Figure.

After taking the La Brea, Fun to Dream now has won five of six career starts. In her only defeat, she finished second and was disqualified to ninth in an allowance/optional claiming sprint Sept. 4 at Del Mar.

I had a substantial win wager on Fun to Dream on Sept. 4. She was the 1-2 favorite. Awake At Midnyte won that race at 6-1 while drilling Fun to Dream by 3 1/4 lengths. On Monday, Fun to Dream turned the tables on Awake At Midnyte, who finished second in the La Brea.

Somehow I managed to have a big win bet on Fun to Dream the only time she’s ever been beaten. Sometimes this really can be a cruel game.

RACE 10. The Grade I Runhappy Malibu Stakes for 3-year-olds at seven furlongs on dirt.

TAIBA won the Malibu emphatically as a 2-5 favorite. As he bounded home well clear in the field of nine, Santa Anita announcer Frank Mirahmadi described it perfectly for the enthusiastic throng of 41,446 in attendance, plus thousands more watching on television or on various devices:

“It’s Taiba, absolutely terrific in winning the Runhappy Malibu by four widening lengths. Forbidden Kingdom was second, then it was Hoist the Gold in front of Nakatomi. The running time, a crisp 1:21.75.”

Taiba’s official winning margin was 4 1/4 lengths.

I nailed the Malibu exacta with my stakes selections for Xpressbet.com. The $1 exacta returned $8.40. Hoist the Gold, who finished third, came home willingly as a 29-1 longshot and, it should be noted, galloped out well in front of everyone, including Taiba, after the finish.

Mirahmadi was spot on when calling Taiba’s final time “a crisp 1:21.75.”

Flightline won the 2021 Malibu in 1:21.37 and was credited with a 118 Beyer. That 118 smashed the record for the highest figure by a Malibu winner going back to 1991, which was the first year Beyers were listed in the American Racing Manual.

Taiba received a 106 Beyer Speed Figure for his Malibu victory. In seven career starts, the Kentucky-bred Gun Runner colt has posted a triple-digit Beyer each time except for his 77 when he finished 12th in the Kentucky Derby.

Below are the Beyers for winners of the Malibu going back to 1991:

2022 Taiba (106)
2021 Flightline (118)
2020 Charlatan (107)
2019 Omaha Beach (101)
2018 McKinzie (103)
2017 City of Light (102)
2016 Mind Your Biscuits (107)
2015 Runhappy (102)
2014 Shared Belief (99)
2013 Shakin It Up (106)
2012 Jimmy Creed (105)
2011 The Factor (106)
2010 Twirling Candy (108)
2009 M One Rifle (102)*
2008 Bob Black Jack (108)*
2007 Johnny Eves (94)*
2006 Latent Heat (109)
2005 Proud Tower Too (105)
2004 Rock Hard Ten (100)
2003 Southern Image (108)
2002 Debonair Joe (95)
2001 Mizzen Mast (106)
2000 Dixie Union (104)
1999 Love That Red (102)
1998 Run Man Run (107)
1997 Lord Grillo (110)
1996 King of the Heap (99)
1995 Afternoon Deelites (103)
1994 Powis Castle (113)
1993 Diazo (104)
1992 Star of the Crop (104)
1991 Olympio (112)

*Run on a synthetic surface

By winning the Malibu, Taiba certainly strengthened his case for the Eclipse Award as champion 3-year-old male of 2022. This followed his earlier Grade I victories this year in the Santa Anita Derby and Pennsylvania Derby.

Also a strong contender for the Eclipse Award in this category is Epicenter, who won the Grade I Travers Stakes. That was Epicenter’s only Grade I victory this year, though he did finish second in both the Grade I Kentucky Derby and Grade I Preakness Stakes.

Taiba finished third, best of any 3-year-old, in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Classic, a race in which Flightline and Olympiad ran one-two. Epicenter started in that race, but he did not finish due to sustaining a career-ending injury.

If Taiba had not won the Malibu, my Eclipse Award vote would have gone to Epicenter. But because Taiba won the Malibu and did so decisively for his third Grade I victory of the year, he is my choice for champion 3-year-old male.

This was Baffert’s fifth Malibu win, just one shy of the record held by fellow Hall of Famer Richard Mandella, who trains Forbidden Kingdom.

Baffert’s five Malibu winners have been The Factor (2011), Shakin It Up (2013), McKinzie (2018), Charlatan (2020) and Taiba (2022).

Mandella’s six Malibu winners have been Oraibi (1988), Afternoon Deelites (1995), Dixie Union (2000), Rock Hard Ten (2004), Jimmy Creed (2012) and Omaha Beach (2019).

HERNANDEZ, DETTORI RIDING STARS MONDAY

Juan Hernandez, who captured his first Santa Anita winter-spring riding title at the 2021-22 meet, rode four winners Monday to get his title defense off to an excellent start.

Hernandez won the second race on Bletchley Park ($8.60), third race on Dicey Mo Chara ($9.60), eighth race on Fun to Dream ($7.40) and 11th race on Rhea Moon ($15.60).

Dicey Mo Chara won the Grade II San Gabriel Stakes by a half-length at 1 1/8 miles on the grass course. Flashiest finished second at 21-1, while Masteroffoxhounds ran third as the 6-5 favorite in the field of seven.

Rhea Moon rallied from ninth to win the Grade I American Oaks for 3-year-old fillies by a head at 1 1/4 miles on turf. School Dance finished second at 11-1, while Sparkle Blue came in third at 8-1. New York invader Salimah finished seventh as the 5-2 favorite after leading through the early furlongs.

It was a trainer Phil D’Amato exacta, which is becoming a fairly common occurrence in grass stakes on the Southern California circuit. The $1 exacta paid $67.90.

Rhea Moon recorded a career-best 88 Beyer Speed Figure for her American Oaks score. This was her third straight win and first at the Grade I level. The Irish-bred Starspangledbanner filly went into the American Oaks off a win in Santa Anita’s Grade III Autumn Miss Stakes at one mile on Oct. 29.

Santa Anita’s opening-day program began with a narrow upset victory by 16-1 One More Bid in the first race, the Grade II Santa Anita Mathis Mile at one mile on the turf course for 3-year-olds.

Ridden by Ramon Vazquez and trained by Ryan Hanson, One More Bid eked out a nose win over 8-5 favorite Balnikhov. Pacesetter Sumter held on for third, while I’m A Gambler finished fourth at 2-1 in the field of six while making his U.S. debut after racing in England and Ireland.

After losing the first seven starts of his career, One More Bid now has put together back-to-back wins. Prior to taking Monday’s Grade II affair, the Kentucky-bred gelding by two-time Horse of the Year California Chrome won a one mile maiden race by a neck on Del Mar’s grass course Nov. 19.

One More Bid was part of a riding double on the day for Vazquez, who also won the fourth race aboard the aforementioned Faustin.

As for Dettori, he won three races on Monday’s card. He was reunited with Country Grammer in the San Antonio. In the only previous race in which Dettori had ridden the 5-year-old Kentucky-bred son of Tonalist, they collaborated for a win in the Group I, $12 million Dubai World Cup last March 26.

Dettori also won Monday’s seventh race with La Deauxieme Etoile ($15.00) and ninth race with Ballet Dancing ($7.20).

The legendary 52-year-old Dettori, one of the most accomplished jockeys of all time, has announced that he will retire after he rides at the 2023 Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita on Nov. 3-4.

FAUSTIN, BANISHING DEBUT ON TOP 10

Following his sparkling career debut Monday, Faustin debuts on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week at No. 9.

Also debuting is Banishing, who edged out Jace’s Road for the No. 10 spot.

Wildatlanticstorm and Practical Move drop off the Top 10 this week.

I was really impressed by the dramatic improvement exhibited by Banishing at second asking Monday (Dec. 26) in a Fair Grounds maiden race at 1 1/16 miles. He vied for the early advantage and drew off to win by 8 1/2 lengths as a 2-1 favorite. His final time was 1:44.80.

Later on the card, Jace’s Road won the Gun Runner Stakes at the same 1 1/16-mile trip in 1:44.85.

Banishing came home his final sixteenth in 6.23 seconds, while Jace’s Road’s last sixteenth was timed in 6.55 seconds.

Both Banishing and Jace’s Road recorded a 90 Beyer Speed Figure.

Brendan Walsh trains Banishing. In his only start prior to Monday’s maiden victory, the Kentucky-bred colt finished fourth in a one-mile maiden contest on Nov. 13 at Churchill Downs when all did not go well. He raced ridiculously wide all the way down the backstretch while in the middle of the pack after breaking from post 12.

Despite being parked so wide, Banishing did manage to make a nice move on the turn. He reached even terms for the lead while three wide turning for home, but then lacked the needed additional punch in the lane. All in all, it wasn’t a bad debut.

Banishing’s 90 Beyer for his maiden win was a giant leap from the 65 he received in his first race.

A Godolphin homebred, Banishing is a son of 2004 Horse of the Year Ghostzapper out of a mare by 1992 Horse of the Year A.P. Indy. A.P. Indy is a son of 1977 Horse of the Year Seattle Slew.

In the Gun Runner, Jace’s Road bounced back big-time from his debacle on a wet track in the Grade III Street Sense Stakes at Churchill on Oct. 30.

Sent off at 2-1 in the Gun Runner, Jace’s Road showed early speed before drawing away in the stretch to prevail by 5 1/2 lengths for owners West Point Thoroughbreds and Albaugh Family Stables and trainer Brad Cox.

Jace’s Road won a six-furlong maiden race by 6 1/4 lengths when unveiled at Ellis Park on Aug. 6. The $510,000 auction purchase then finished third in Churchill’s Grade III Iroquois Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on Sept. 17.

In Churchill’s subsequent Street Sense at 1 1/16 miles, Jace’s Road unseated the rider during the loading process, jogged a furlong up the stretch before being caught, then “was remounted without further incident,” according to the Equibase chart. Racing close up for a brief time early, the Kentucky-bred Quality Road colt was done before going a half-mile on the sloppy strip and ultimately finished eighth, 36 1/2 lengths behind the victorious Two Phil’s.

Jace’s Road’s 90 Beyer Speed Figure in the Gun Runner was a big improvement in that department. His previous top Beyer was a 76 in the Iroquois.

Epicenter won last year’s Gun Runner and went on to become one of the top sophomores in the land this year.

Extra Anejo had targeted this year’s Gun Runner following an impressive 9 1/2-length debut win at Keeneland on Oct. 13. However, the highly regarded Into Mischief colt was forced to miss the race due to recently undergoing surgery for the removal of an ankle chip.

Cox also trains Corona Bolt, who is bubbling under my Kentucky Derby Top 10 after winning his first two career starts.

Corona Bolt won a 6 1/2-furlong maiden sprint by one length as a 2-1 favorite at Churchill on Nov. 19. The Florida-bred Bolt d’Oro colt then won Fair Grounds’ six-furlong Sugar Bowl Stakes by 6 3/4 lengths on Monday (Dec. 26).

After Corona Bolt recorded an 82 Beyer Speed Figure in his first race, his figure rose substantially to a 97 in the Sugar Bowl.

Below is my Kentucky Derby Top 10 for this week:

1. Arabian Knight
2. Forte
3. Cave Rock
4. Loggins
5. Giant Mischief
6. National Treasure
7. Instant Coffee
8. Arabian Lion
9. Faustin
10. Banishing

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Fair Grounds - Race #2

#5 Norah G	Don't think you have to try to be too clever in this one, as she was second best to a super logical previous stakes winner who held her at bay. She was away slowly in her last and in her super sharp debut win, so maybe we still haven't seen her true potential if she doesn't have to play catch up from the start.
#4 Star Moment	The one she beat was dull in the comeback run here the other day, but this filly has some upside with just the one start under her belt, and she might have some serious believers somewhere as she was 2/5 in the debut run. Chance.
#7 Hopeitsmyluckyday	Pace got run down by the top choice in that two-back start, but she posted an easy win to graduate last time out. The outside draw and a pace edge on the chalk gives her at least some appeal in here for those not convinced by the short-priced choice.
Race Summary	Norah G has looked like a pretty special Louisiana bred through two starts, and she has had to overcome bad getaways in both of them. There are a couple of reasonable alternatives in here in Star Moment and Hopeitsmyluckyday, but I'm banking on the fact that Norah G is just a step ahead of most statebred fillies right now.

Fair Grounds - Race #6

#6 Guntown	Think he might offer a playable enough price with the presence of a high-powered chalk maybe keeping the price fair here. He turned in a solid finish in the comeback run, and he seems in the picture with any step forward in the second start off the layoff.
#3 Kupuna	He ran well in the comeback try at Churchill after being last seen in the Louisiana Derby here last season, and he's a really obvious threat against this kind with reliable form outside of stakes company.
#4 Global Sensation	Speed didn't miss by a whole lot when finishing just behind the top choice last time out, and he looks like the controlling pace again in here with some front-end appeal. In the mix.
Race Summary	Guntown can step forward off his comeback run, and I wonder if Kupuna will get bet heavily enough to keep the price appealing. Global Sensation is worth a long look for a cold rider, especially if the track is at all friendly to forward players so far.

Fair Grounds - Race #7

#2 Oh Pollyanna	Barn has started the season with a number of live horses from limited starters, and this one might get a really good trip near the top while adding blinkers. Think there is some price appeal here.
#1 Comparative	She's logical enough in here for a team that does good work with this kind locally, but she will likely have to come forward a bit with Lasix to land this after not improving much through her first three starts.
#5 Vivaciously	She's bred to be a good one but wasn't able to really keep up in the sprint debut -- no real surprise considering mom was sharp going long on the dirt -- and has plenty of upside while getting around two turns here.
Race Summary	Oh Pollyanna should get overlooked with some modest turf form, but might be a bit tougher from a more tactical spot here while adding blinkers for this one. I'm interested to see her get another spin on the dirt as her only start there so far came in the career debut.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Golden Gate - Race #1

#1 EFFECTIVE GIG (8-5)	Alert start needed from rail in second try at bottom level, today’s Best Bet.
#7 WOLF’S LIFE (12-1)	Stalked 4-wide against ‘Gig,’ can make good use of his speed in this spot.
#4 EYESA SPECIAL (9-2)	Tracked dueling leaders through fast splits, raced evenly, gets class relief.
Race Summary	EFFECTIVE GIG was off slowly for the second start in a row despite wearing blinkers, rushed up into moderate middle fractions and was out-kicked by the two favorites. Love his chances in this field if he gets away cleanly. Bet to win and place and play 1-4 and 1-7 exactas.

Golden Gate - Race #3

#3 KOKO’S MOM (10-1)	Race two back on all-weather track makes her a major player.
#1 SIGNORINA MERISI (8-5)	All turf in England, idle 7 months, gets Lasix and blinkers, will be underlay.
#5 LOOKINGTOGETEVEN (6-1)	Steady MSW check-getter on the Santa Anita lawn.
Race Summary	KOKO’S MOM is worth a price stab against several shorter-priced rivals who have raced exclusively on turf. She rallied inside to finish second against the boys two starts back and the even-money winner, Sproston, came back with an easy repeat victory in a $4,000 claimer. She returned on short rest to run second to the odds-on favorite in a 4-horse turf race. Bet to win and place.

Golden Gate - Race #6

#8 BROKEN FINGER (5-1)	Back with own kind, starts fresh off solid works, seeks seventh win of year.
#3 WALKING BOSS (4-1)	Gets needed class relief, will be running late, use in all gimmicks.
#4 DI LAURIAN (5-2)	Has speed, stands 6/2-1-1 in one-mile races at Golden Gate in 2023.
Race Summary	BROKEN FINGER went on a 4-for-7 streak earlier this year, faded against better rivals since then, now shows two good 4F works over the track for his first start in five weeks. The trainer-jockey duo is 3-for-8 in the last month with a positive return on investment. Play a 3-4-8 exacta box.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brent Musberger

Georgia vs. Ohio St Over 61.5
Georgia -6.5 vs. Ohio St

Michigan vs. TCU Under 59
TCU +8 vs. Michigan

[Can'tPickAWinner]

1. NSA(The Legend) NBA – Jazz -3.5
2. Gameday Network NBA – Cavaliers +7
3. Sports Action 365 NBA – Pacers +3.5
4. Vegas Line Crushers NBA – Thunder +4.5
5. VegasSI NBA – Knicks -4.5
6. Sam Casey NBA – Clippers -3.5
7. Henry Brown Sports NBA – Grizzlies -6
8. Winning Big Sports NBA – Cavaliers -2.5
9. Lou Panelli NBA – Mavericks -7
10. Platinum Info Club NBA – Knicks -4.5
11. William E. Stockton CBB – TCU -6
12. Vincent Pioli CBB – The Citadel over 141
13. Steve “Scoop” Kendall CBB – Hofstra -12
14. SCORE CBB – Oklahoma over 133
15. Tony Campone CBB – Mercer +1
16. Chicago Sports Group CBB – James Madison under 160.5
17. Hollywood Sportsline CBB – La Salle over 134
18. VIP Action CBB – Youngstown St -4
19. South Beach Sports CBB – Southern Miss -6.5
20. LV Sports Commission CBB – Robert Morris -2
21. NY Players Club NBA – Jazz -3.5
22. Fred Callahan NBA – Cavaliers -2.5
23. LV Private CEO Club NBA – Clippers -3.5
24. Michigan Sports CBB – Nebraska -4
25. National Consensus Report CBB – William & Mary over 127.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals Guru

Dec 31 '22, 2:00 PM in 38m
NCAA-B | Hampton vs NC-Wilmington

Play on: [B]UNDER 141

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

Dec 31 '22, 2:00 PM in 38m
NCAA-B | William & Mary vs Drexel

Play on: William & Mary +8 -115 at BetVegas

1* Free Pick on William & Mary +8 -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Black Widow

Dec 31 '22, 2:00 PM in 38m
NCAA-B | UL - Lafayette vs Old Dominion

Play on: Old Dominion -1 -110 at circa

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Old Dominion -1 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jim Feist

Dec 31 '22, 2:00 PM in 38m
NCAA-B | Baylor vs Iowa State

Play on: Iowa State +2 -110 at circa

Both these teams having fine seasons as the Baylor Bears are 10-2 S/U and 6-6 ATS on the season. The Iowa State Cyclones are 9-2 S/U and 6-5 ATS. The Bears have won five straight, covering three of those games. They are coming off a win over Nicholls State, 85-56, as a 20.5-point favorite. Their losses this year have been to Marquette, 70-96, and to Virginia, 79-86. Iowa State has won two straight after losing at Iowa on the 8th, 56-75. The Cyclones rebounded with wins over McNeese State and last time out over Western Michigan, 75-57, as a 23.5-point favorite. The Cyclones are a perfect 7-0 S/U at home and 4-3 vs the spread. They are outscoring opponents at home by a 74.-3 to 48 point margin. I like Iowa State at home here today as a small dog. Play Iowa State.