Sunday 1/1/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-01-2023, 07:22 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know for Santa Anita - 1/1/23

January 1, 2023
“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Saffa’s Day; 4-Joker Boy
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: There’s not much to work with in this five runner $32,000 claiming sprint for older horses, so in a race that offers little wagering value we’ll the double the race in rolling exotic play but otherwise sit it out. Saffa’s Day, claimed for $50,000 two outings back, takes a class drop after a couple of disappointing runs since changing barns. The Mark Glatt-trained gelding has several back numbers that equal or exceed par for this level, and from his cozy outside draw the Carpe Diem gelding should have no excuses. Joker Boy is a former juvenile stakes winner still trying to find his proper level as an older performer. Most recently he failed to hit the board at 3/5 at Del Mar against his own age group but on numbers he’s competitive in a soft field, so we’ll toss him in.

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RACE 2: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Mentirosa
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Mentirosa has just three rivals in this low level $20,000 claiming sprint restricted to newly-turned 3-year-olds and should be able to justify his 4/5 morning line status. Second in a similar event at Los Alamitos last month, the Jorge Periban-trained gelding can dictate the race from his outside draw and go with it when called upon. He’s a rolling exotic single in a race that offers no other wagering value.

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RACE 3: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Wudi; 6-Doinitthehardway
Backups/savers:

Forecast: Trainer Bob Baffert holds the aces in this six-runner maiden special weight sprint for 3-year-old fillies, with preference on top to Wudi, listed as the second choice on the morning line at 5/2 just behind stable mate Doinitthehardway (2-1). The daughter of Uncle Mo was worn down late in her debut when finishing second while more than four lengths clear of the rest in an extended sprint that earned solid number. Wth that effort behind her combined with the shortening in trip, she looks ready to graduate. Doinitthehardway set the pace before weakening late when fourth in the middle distance Starlet Stakes-G1 behind her highly promising barn mate Faiza last month and this turn back to a sprint might bring out her best. She’s not as quick as Wudi but from her outside draw the daughter of Street Sense will have every chance to stalk, pounce and go. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

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RACE 4: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Bali Dancer; 3-Awesome Pamela
Backups/Savers: none

Forecast: Bali Dancer exits a tougher starter’s allowance sprint in which she was overmatched and never a factor. This stretch out to a mile combined with a significant class drop to the restricted (nw-2) $16,000 level looks like the winning move. The extra distance shouldn’t be an issue and a repeat of her race before last – a game win against maiden $20,000 foes that earned a decent number – should be good enough. Awesome Pamela is a tad slower on figures than ‘Dancer but her runner-up effort two races back over this track and distance makes her the one to fear most.

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RACE 5: Post: 1:59 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Kiss My Kat
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Three of the main players in this state-bred maiden sprint for older fillies and mares exit the same race last month at Del Mar but it really wasn’t much of a heat, so let’s look elsewhere. Kiss My Kat flashed big speed in her only outing 15 months ago, leading the way into the lane before weakening late to finish third, beaten six lengths, while earning fairly nice number. She returns protected in a sign of confidence and has been burning up the track preparing her comeback in a series of drills that includes a bullet :46 flat half mile drill (fastest of 44) seven days ago. She appears much the quickest of this band, so let’s gamble that she’s a better type this time around and back her in the in pool and in the various rolling exotics and hope to get close to her morning line of 4-1.

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RACE 6: Post: 2:29 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Little Rachel
Backups/savers: 1-Bowl of Cherries

Forecast: This $32,000 seller for older sprinting fillies and mares provides a good opportunity for Little Rachel to provide her new connections with a quick return on investment after being haltered for $20,000 when finishing third as the favorite at Del Mar six weeks ago. Double jumped in class, the Librado Barocio-trained mare returns to her favorite track (first or second in five of seven local starts), switches to Juan Hernandez, and easily fits in this tougher spot based on speed figures. A prototype late-running sprinter, she should be along in time for a barn that traditionally does quite well with the first-off-the-claim level. Bowl of Cherries, a $16,000 claim by Sergio Morfin two weeks ago, also has competitive speed figures and shouldn’t be out of her element despite the aggressive class boost. She’s won over this main strip in the past and gets a significant break in the weights with the switch to a promising bug rider. She’ll be a dangerous pace factor if she breaks running from the rail.

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RACE 7: Post: 2:59 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Justique
Backups/savers: 3-Lily Poo

Forecast: Justique is certain to be a short price to win this year’s edition of the Santa Ynez Stakes-G3 based on her two prior sprint victories, her breathtaking debut maiden score at Del Mar last July and her dominating Desi Arnaz Stakes score in November. Her one disappointing performance – a non-threatening third in between those two outings in the slowly-run Chandelier S.-G2 over a middle distance last fall – seems to indicate that she’s most comfortable as a late-running sprinter, and if that’s the case today’s seven furlong distance should once again bring out her best. However, the progressive Lily Poo, a smart winner of a highly rated maiden sprint at Del Mar last month, can’t be easily dismissed and in fact should be included somewhere on your ticket. Now in the Michael McCarthy barn after being purchased privately by a sharp outfit, the daughter of Tapiture should draft into a comfortable pace stalking/pressing position and then have every chance to hold off the favorite when set down for the drive.

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RACE 8: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Yo Time
Backups/savers: 6-Thirsty

Forecast: Debuting Yo Time was knocked down to favoritism in a similar maiden state-bred dirt sprint at Del Mar in late November but got behind horses inside during the early stages and appeared to greatly resent the kick back. He adds Lasix, draws a better post, and may run to expectations this time around. The son of Smiling Tiger probably has more gate quickness than he displayed, and it wouldn’t surprise us to see him on or near the lead throughout. Thirsty is a first time starter that went through the ring as a yearling for $97,000, and the son of Stay Thirsty has put together a solid work tab at San Luis Rey Downs for trainer Peter Miller. He could come up a live item, so we’ll include him on our ticket as a backup or a saver.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-01-2023, 07:23 AM

Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis-$20,000 Guaranteed Pool

January 1, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
Cal Expo kicks off the New Year with an 11-race card. The headliner comes in Race 5, the Alan Horowitz Memorial Pace with a $30,000 purse. The 0.20 Pick 4 starts in Race 7. The sequence has a $20,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 7

3-Lisplaced (8-1)-Paid off at 55-1 from post 9 in last week's win. Rallied from last and is back in at the same class, so the morning line price looks worth the risk.
7-Not Me Gram (9/5)-Beaten chalk looked dull in CalX debut. Requalified with Lackey on 12-26 in 1.56 and drops. The short price is tough to swallow but should be a player at this level and cashed checks facing $10k claimers at Hoosier.
10-Miki's Magic Ride (5-1)-Drops after a string of dull tries. Plano takes a seat and that is a ++ driver change. Probably will leave then hope to land in a decent seat. Can close coming off cover if there is an honest pace and should offer a square price.

Race 8

2-Snoah (15-1)-This is a hodge-podge group and will take a swing for a price. Gets a positive driver change in Lackey taking the lines and is competitive with the right trip. Was used hard more than once in last, not a great steer and will look for improvement.
6-Salary (2-1)-Was no match for Divine Art in last and either was anyone else. Can come with one nice move and could beat these if Irvine does his job.
8-Ain't She Special (4-1)-Didn't get the best of trips but was probably not going to beat #1 starting from the rail on a sloppy track. Expecting the track to be no worse than "good" and this mare might be overlooked. Plano should have her in striking range turning for the wire.

Race 9

2-Paddy Murphy (12-1)-Chip Lackey lands on this veteran who has hit the board in 22 of 57 at CalX with 6 pictures. Lackey has been hot and is one of the better drivers on this circuit, so looking forward to a smooth trip. Probably won't down #3 if he is dialed on high but can top the others.
3-Keystone Tenacious (8/5)-Not sure if a head pole came off down the lane in last but caught a big shuffle and wasn't going to win regardless. Takes a significant drop and has the speed to top this crew. Will be a tiny price and appears to be a clean trip away from a picture.

Race 10

4-Marced Magic (6-1)-Has hit the board in 29 of 58 here and has posted 13 wins. Plano gets the call tonight which should help. Draws well and not expecting to get 6-1 but should be a main player.
9-Ynotthishoss (10-1)-Was used a couple of times and drew the 9-hole, which made for a rough trip. Can rally nicely off cover and Lackey could work a smooth trip. Has a shot to be the best down the lane with a live cover flow.

0.20 Pick 4

3,7,10/2,6,8/2,3/4,9
Total Bet=$7.20

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-01-2023, 07:24 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Turfway Park - Race #5

#5 Exhibit Hall	The barn has been going well with all their runners right now, but they've also been among the better ROI teams with this type locally. This one showed nothing in the debut but returns now with Lasix. Expecting better.
#9 Popnfizz	She'll go first time out for a team that does sneaky good work with these types, and I wouldn't be shocked to see her turn in a nice effort at first asking.
#2 Friction	Guessing she's going to get bet here for a tough barn that has her drilling quickly in the mornings ahead of this. Probably live, but get a look at her on the tote and track.
Race Summary	Exhibit Hall has a long way to come forward off the dull debut try, but she should be better with Lasix here and may offer a decent enough price for a barn that's going lights out right now.

Turfway Park - Race #8

#4 Droppin G's	He was really sharp when cutting back around one turn last time out, and he might get another fair pace to kick into with a couple of pretty quick types lined up. Adds to the appeal that they scratched him from a spot on Wednesday in favor of this stakes try.
#7 Visitant	He's probably supposed to win this with his best, and he has historically thrived here -- seven of his nine local starts led him to the winner's circle. He'll get the right trip here.
#1 Nobody Listens	He's a question mark over the local footing, and he there is a major worry that he's drawn inside of the other pace. That said, maybe he will like it here? He's sure to try to go for it from the fence.
Race Summary	Droppin G's comes off an effort that seems competitive here, and he should get an honest enough pace to chase. The likely chalk will almost surely get the jump on him, but I think he might be able to pick them up late.

Turfway Park - Race #10

#9 Eye Witness	He's not meeting a ton of confirmed early burn, and that sprint pace from the New York debut probably puts him on the front end here. Think he has a real shot to pop this one on the engine.
#3 Smart Prize	He's capable of something better than he showed last time out, and I think getting around two turns with Lasix might give him a chance to bring a career best here. Worth including at a big price.
#8 Uncle Reg	He ran well despite a bit of trouble in the debut run at Churchill, and he's one of the more obvious players in here with some room to come forward off that try while getting Lasix.
Race Summary	Eye Witness should be fast enough to try to give this field the slip at some point, and I think he's a pretty likely winner in this spot based on his debut run and the potential race shape here. Think Smart Prize could be the price player to spoil some plays.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-01-2023, 07:24 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero

PURCHASE

Camarero - Race 4	Pick 4 (4-7) / Pick 3 (4-6) / Exacta /Trifecta / Daily Double 4-5
Claiming $4,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 87 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 4:00P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON THREE RACES SINCE JANUARY 1 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 1 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 1 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Trailer. CHAPECOENSE is the Lone Trailer of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * RENEESDREAMGIRL: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. MEET ME HALF WAY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. WANDY EXPRESS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. BATTLE RHYTHM: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in aver age Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
3	RENEESDREAMGIRL	3/1	3/1
9	MEET ME HALF WAY	7/2	6/1
4	WANDY EXPRESS	9/2	8/1
7	BATTLE RHYTHM	2/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	BATTLE RHYTHM	7	2/1	Front-runner	82	72	94.2	63.8	54.8
3	RENEESDREAMGIRL	3	3/1	Front-runner	91	86	85.6	81.6	79.1
2	LUNA FORTUNA	2	9/2	Front-runner	51	58	66.6	40.8	28.3
9	MEET ME HALF WAY	9	7/2	Stalker	88	67	51.6	81.6	74.6
8	DATA LADY	8	6/1	Stalker	70	67	30.2	56.6	41.1
4	WANDY EXPRESS	4	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	88	81	60.8	84.4	79.4
5	CHAPECOENSE	5	20/1	Trailer	81	79	31.6	70.4	60.4
1	SKY INTEREST	1	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	81	74	34.2	66.4	55.4
6	OFRENDA	6	50/1	Alternator/Non-contender	65	55	24.2	42.2	25.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-01-2023, 07:25 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Laurel ParkPURCHASE

Laurel Park - Race 8	EXACTA, TRIFECTA &DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 8-9) / 10 cent SUPERFECTA
Optional Claiming $40,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 94 • Purse: $58,000 • Post: 3:51P
(PLUS UP TO 15% MBF) FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE SIRED OR STATE BRED RACES OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $40,000-$32,000. WEIGHT, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 1 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000, IF FOR $32,000, ALLOWED 4 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $30,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. BANDITS WARRIOR is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BANDITS WARRIOR: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SWEET GRACIE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. PLANE DRUNK: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. ICY STARE DOWN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. STAND BY YOU: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
5	BANDITS WARRIOR	3/1	4/1
4	SWEET GRACIE	7/2	8/1
3	PLANE DRUNK	7/2	8/1
2	ICY STARE DOWN	5/2	9/1
6	STAND BY YOU	6/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	BANDITS WARRIOR	5	3/1	Front-runner	85	91	89.2	80.2	74.7
2	ICY STARE DOWN	2	5/2	Stalker	88	87	82.6	77.6	72.1
3	PLANE DRUNK	3	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	91	84	77.0	82.8	75.8
4	SWEET GRACIE	4	7/2	Trailer	96	86	61.0	83.6	79.1
6	STAND BY YOU	6	6/1	Trailer	87	90	44.6	83.4	75.9
1	BOURBON WILDCAT	1	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	85	85	86.4	68.8	60.8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-01-2023, 07:25 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Handicap Stakes - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $25000 Class Rating: 92

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, DASHINGLY HANDICAP S. - FOR MARES FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARDS, WEIGHT 126.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 10 IN MY HEART 2/1
# 4 JESS ANOTHERCOMMANDO 9/2
# 8 KOALITION 7/2

I think IN MY HEART is a strong choice. She has formidable class ratings, averaging 96, and has to be given a shot in this race. Has run admirably when travelling a short race. Her 90 average has this mare with among the best Equibase Speed Figures for this race. JESS ANOTHERCOMMANDO - Looks very good versus this group of horses and should be one of the leaders. Looks like a strong candidate for the exotics. KOALITION - Conditioner has solid win rate (20 percent) at this distance and surface. Ought to be given consideration - I like the numbers from the last race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-01-2023, 07:26 AM

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Fair Grounds

PURCHASE

01/01/23, FG, Race 7, 4.15 CT
01/01/23,FG,7,6F [Dirt] 1:08:00 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $51,000 (includes up to $4,000 Other Sources) (plus up to $4,000 ALBSS-Accredited LA Bred Slot Supplement). FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $17,500. Weight, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of Two Races Since November 1 Allowed 2 lbs. A Race Since Then Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $17,500 (Races Where Entered For $30,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	3	Rubiana	5/1	Graham J	Hodges James E.	TEL	124	8.87	1.15/$1
096.5920	4	Dance It	3/1	Cohen D	Asmussen Steven M.	F	124	8.87	1.15/$1
096.3689	1A	Mercy Warren	7/2	Hernandez. Jr. B J	DeVaux Cherie	SW	124	8.87	1.15/$1
096.0802	2	Braganza	4/1	Lanerie C J	Kenneally Eddie		111	9.01	1.22/$1
095.6729	1	A Girl Like Me	7/2	Morales E	Amoss Thomas M.	C	124	8.87	1.15/$1
095.0688	5	Miss Distinctive	6/1	Loveberry J	Roussel. III Louie J.	J	124	8.87	1.15/$1
094.2595	8	Cave Creek	10/1	Albert T S	Dussette Alvin		124	8.87	1.15/$1
093.3624	6	Shaniah	10/1	Parker D L	Tomlinson Michael A.		70	28.57	1.69/$1
090.1919	7	Champagne Affair	10/1	Nieves E	Govea Cesar		124	8.87	1.15/$1

Top rated horse With "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 29.49, ROI 0.88/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -3.4080
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Actual Post Not Greater Than 9 And Distance 6f Or 6 1/2f

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-01-2023, 07:26 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Oaklawn Park - Race #3 - Post: 1:28pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $26,000 Class Rating: 91

Rating:

#6 TWITTY CITY (ML=2/1)

TWITTY CITY - I like when a horse has dropped in class at least 5 class ratings pts like this one did last out and then runs against a similar field right back. Hollendorfer must've found the right level. Last time out, finished fifth on a muddy track at Oaklawn Park. Have to do better in this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 ESKENFORIT (ML=7/5), #1A EGO (ML=7/5), #8 GENERATOR (ML=5/1),

ESKENFORIT - A pattern of decreasing speed figs 86/75/45 for this questionable contender. EGO - The fifth place finish last race out coming after the long turnout is definitely not a positive signal. That was merely not a very good showing in the last event. When examining today's class figure, he will have to register a better speed figure than last race out to compete in this dirt route. GENERATOR - Recorded a mediocre speed figure in the last race in a $7,500 Claiming race on Dec 16th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that fig.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #6 TWITTY CITY to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	6 with [3,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-01-2023, 07:27 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Sunland Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Stakes - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $100000 Class Rating: 86

NEW MEXICO STATE RACING COMMISSION H. - FOR FILLIES AND MARES, FOUR-YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD, REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED. NON LASIX HANDICAP. FREE TO NOMINATE; $600 TO ENTER. WEIGHTS ASSIGNED. HIGH WEIGHTS PREFERRED. TOTAL EARNINGS IN 2021-2022 WILL BE USED TO DETERMINE THE ORDER OR PREFERENCE FOR HORSES OF EQUAL WEIGHT. (INCLUDES $50,000 FROM NMHBA PURSE ENHANCEMENT FUND. BALANCE FROM

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 PROOFSINTHEPUDDIN 4/1
# 8 MARKING TIME 9/2
# 9 DESERTROSE OFTEXAS 15/1

PROOFSINTHEPUDDIN is the best bet in this race. With a sound 77 average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's affair. Change in Lasix (now going off Lasix) may be the key to a major improvement. Juarez has a win percentage of 16 over the last month. MARKING TIME - Is a strong contender based on figs posted recently under today's conditions. Could beat this group of horses given the 77 speed figure posted in her last outing. DESERTROSE OFTEXAS - With a reliable return on investment of +7 this conditioner has shown competitive results with entries running at this distance and surface.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-01-2023, 07:27 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Golden Gate Fields - Race #9 - Post: 3:45pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $30,000 Class Rating: 76

Rating:

#8 EL BROMISTA (ML=6/1)

EL BROMISTA - The recent bullet 36.4 work should put this colt on track for today's effort. First-timer has been working over this very track. I think that's a big plus in his favor. Wright is giving this one Lasix for the 1st time. A really smart move.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 GUNNIN FOR GOLD (ML=5/2), #3 CUT ACROSS SHORTY (ML=5/1), #5 ZEUS' WAR (ML=8/1),

GUNNIN FOR GOLD - Difficult to bet on any thoroughbred in a short distance clash at 5/2 when he hasn't shown any positive results in sprints in the last couple of months. CUT ACROSS SHORTY - 5/1 is not priced right for any animal in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't hit the board in a sprint affair of late. Garnered a most unsatisfactory speed rating in the last race in a Maiden Special race on December 3rd. Doubtful to see an improved performance off of that rating. ZEUS' WAR - This entrant will in all probability be way back as this field crosses the finish.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #8 EL BROMISTA to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	8 with 10
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-01-2023, 07:29 AM

Rocket Picks ��: Oaklawn Park, Gulfstream Park, and Santa Anita Park for January 1, 2023
By: Aaron Halterman

Happy New Year to everyone! Let’s get another big Sunday of racing kicked off today! For the free pick 4, we will head to Gulfstream Park for the Late Pick 4 on the card. We will also have full card selections for opening day at Santa Anita and Oaklawn Park for the paid Rockets, so be sure to check those out. Let’s GO!

Below is our free late Pick 4 for Gulfstream Park:

Gulfstream Park January 1, 2023

Race 7: Cash Run Stakes

This stakes race looks completely wide-open on paper. It is probably the toughest race of the day on paper, so we have went four deep in this spot. #7 Alma Rose at 10-1 would be nice, while some of the other logical winners would be ok as well.

Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming
freestar

We used the two favorites in this with #2 Beuys and #4 Bemmas Boy being logical. However, we also have two price involved as well with #6 Easy Time and #10 Ever Dangerous looking to have solid chances to pull the upset.

Race 9: Mucho Macho Man Stakes

This should be a fun one as the 3-year-olds take their first steps toward Kentucky in this race. We think the #5 General Jim will do well moving back to the dirt; however, #12 Laver and #1 Legacy Isle looked like must uses as well. This should be a competitive race.

Race 10: Allowance Optional Claiming

We will round out the sequence going with just two horses: #3 Inflation Adjusted and #4 Six Minus. Both are running for powerful connections, while both just look to be a bit faster than the rest of this solid group of runners.

THE TICKET

$.50 Pick 4 (Races 7-10) 2,3,6,7 / 2,4,6,10 / 1,5,12 / 3,4 – $48

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-01-2023, 07:29 AM

2023 Mucho Macho Man Stakes Value Play
John Mucciolo

A full field of 12 newly-turned sophomores will travel one-mile on the Gulfstream Park dirt in Sunday’s $150,000 Mucho Macho Man S. The one-turn feature lacks a clear standout while boasting numerous intriguing horses in the cast, so I will search for value with my top selection in the attractive betting event.

#3 Baby Billy (20-1) is still a maiden following a trio of tries to date, but the talented three-year-old has performed well in all of his sprint endeavors and seems poised to thrive with the added distance on Sunday. Second by a head in his first pair of assignments at Churchill Downs, the son of Gormley was transferred to the barn of Jack Sisterson and recorded a third-place result on this strip following a poor break against maiden special weight foes.

The $45,000 juvenile buy has displayed a solid turn of foot from each attempt, which tells me that he will move forward in his initial route try on this occasion. Gelded Kentucky-bred draws well near the rail to save ground in the early going, and I love that he put in a pair of local morning moves in anticipation of his second outing on the surface, too. Picking up pilot Joel Rosario adds to his appeal.

#1 Legacy Isle (9-2) has dusted two fields in succession on the course to begin his career for conditioner Rohan Crichton. The $210,000 son of Shackleford handled the move to eight panels with ease in his latest performance when rallying to a three-length allowance tally, and any improvement off of that showing will give him a serious chance from the inside post. Emisael Jaramillo will be in the silks once again.

#8 Mr Bob (5-1) was a sharp maiden winner at Keeneland two back, prior to finishing a strong runner-up in a stakes sprint beneath the Twin Spires in his most recent endeavor. Practical Joke colt will surely be able to negotiate the move to one-mile with Irad Ortiz Jr. accepting the mount.

Rusty Arnold’s #7 Fliparino (8-1) was an eye-catching debut winner in October, which preceded a solid third-place result in the Street Sense S. (G3). By Honor Code, the Calumet homebred has trained well in preparation of his seasonal bow and will be doing his best racing from off the pace as an exotics contender at a fair price.
Mucho Macho Man Value Plays

$10 win/place/show #3 Baby Billy ($30)
$3 exacta key box 3 with 1,7,8 ($18)
50-cent trifecta box 1,3,7,8 ($12)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-01-2023, 07:29 AM

How to bet the 2023 Holiday Cheer Stakes
John Mucciolo

A total of eight fillies and mares will run six panels on the Tapeta at Turfway Park in Sunday’s $125,000 Holiday Cheer S. The horse to beat is #7 Visitant (4-5) from the barn of Bill Morey. By Ghostzapper, the seven-year-old has been awesome on the course with a 9-7-1-1 local line, and he came off the long absence to stylishly bag an allowance tilt here last time out.

Visitant has come out on top in his last five one-turn efforts at Turfway, and while he was classy enough to take the 2021 Kentucky Cup Classic at nine panels here, the Kentucky-bred bay seems to be at his best when traveling one turn. He possesses the tactical speed to force the pace from the break, and he also owns a fine turn of foot which will make him especially difficult to upend on this occasion. Gerardo Corrales has the assignment.

Wesley Ward’s #8 Outadore (7-2) will give the favorite a real test in the dash with a nice draw directly outside of his main foe. Gray son of Outwork has displayed class since his two-year-old season, and the five-year-old is still relatively lightly raced with just 10 career outings under his belt. The Kentucky-bred gray was a stakes winner in his lone prior try at Turfway, and the gelding has posted some fine morning drills in preparation of this heat, as well. Kent Desormeaux will guide the logical win threat.

#4 Droppin G’s (10-1) owns a trio of lifetime victories at Turfway Park and looked good last time out when rallying for a sharp allowance score on the oval. The gray son of Klimt will stalk the pace from midpack early and put in his best work approaching the turn for home with Luan Machado in the stirrups.

#5 Thanks Mr. Edison (10-1) will make his first run since joining the barn of Doug O’Neill. A turf stakes winner two back at Horseshoe Indianapolis, the six-year-old gelding was stakes-placed in his lone prior effort on a synthetic surface, and the son of More Than Ready could sit a favorable trip off of a swift and contested pace. Abel Lezcano will take the reins atop the late runner.
Holiday Cheer Wagers

$8 trifecta key 7 with 4,5,8 ($48)
$2 superfecta key 7 with 4,5,8 ($12)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-01-2023, 07:30 AM

Race of the Week: Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream | Sunday, Jan. 1

December 29, 2022 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
It's a Thoroughbred birthday party of sorts Sunday as newly turned 3-year-olds match up in the kickoff leg to the Florida Derby series. Gulfstream Park's Mucho Macho Man Stakes carries a $150,000 purse, 1-turn dirt mile configuration and full field of 12 entries. The dozen provide a nice mix of Florida, New York and Kentucky runners.

Field Depth:
While each seeks a first career stakes win, existing stakes-placed performers in the lineup include DREAMING OF KONA, GENERAL JIM, FLIPARINO and MR. BOB. There's no decided class edge among these in the past performances, and a quartet of last-out winners stepping up in class are just as likely to factor as those with stakes experience.

Pace:
Of the 12 runners, they've appeared in 39 collective races and only 4 times - by 4 different runners no less - has one of them made the early lead. This is not a race with the pace you'd expect for a 1-turn mile of rising players. DREAMING OF KONA and MR BOB are most likely to make the front in this handicapper's eyes, and that tactical edge could cash.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes:

LEGACY ISLE: Though 2-for-2, not visually impressive and very inefficient action could catch up to him with better competition. He's drawn the rail now in all 3 starts and handles that assignment.

IL MIRACOLO: Disastrous road trip for Remsen, but Sano rarely travels unless he has a good one. Nov. 12 win at Gulfstream was hard-ridden out and just 26-2/5 final quarter. Respect the Gun Runners, and this barn won the Mucho Macho Man last year with Simplification.

BABY BILLY: Maiden was twice-beaten favorite, but picks up Rosario and should be a good style fit for trainer not afraid to throw one to the wolves.

DREAMING OF KONA: Potential pacemaker has bullet workout since Inaugural Stakes third at Tampa when chasing a Keeneland stakes winner named Super Chow, who wired that day at 3-5. Don't worry about trouble comment at start, wasn't a factor and was his fault, but note he galloped out best of all.

GENERAL JIM: Shug McGaughey trainee goes turf-to-dirt, but pedigree certainly to handle it by Into Mischief and being a grandson of Havre de Grace, a Horse of the Year and main track superstar. Third in only dirt try, at Saratoga, and didn't show any disdain for it that day behind a razor-sharp winner. Luis Saez opts to ride here over MR BOB.

WINE EMPIRE: Claimed for $35K and $75K in his last 2 starts, difficult read on synthetic form. Would be big surprise.

FLIPARINO: Mama Swap Fliparoo was G1 Test winner and won '07 Sabin over a mile at Gulfstream in a blowout fashion. Flat late going 2 turns last time in the Street Sense at Churchill, but should be much more suited around 1 turn based on pedigree and form.

MR BOB: Expect hustling early speed from Irad Ortiz, Jr, a notable replacement for Luis Saez. Broke very sharp from inside in Churchill stakes last out, then was taken a hold of and relaxed nicely. Finished up well and tried hard. Working well since. Big chance.

LIVE IS LIFE: 1-for-7 with propensity to hang late and not finish. Couldn't sustain run against Legacy Isle and Eyes on the King, and those aren't my top selections in this spot.

LORD MILES: Saffie Joseph Jr. won this race in 2020 with Chance It and has a big chance for another trophy. This one looked to be going nowhere a half-mile into his sprint debut, but the Curlin colt just rocket-launched in upper stretch and won as easily as you could imagine while only used for maybe 3/16ths of a mile. Strong work since for a colt out of a half-sister to Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Caledonia Road.

EYES ON THE KING: Rock-solid visually on the Tapeta winning around 2 turns last time. If able to get near the front, will provide his best chance. Win-early damside pedigree, so no surprise to see this one sharp in August debut ... the trick will be to continue development.

LAVER: Bernardini-Centre Court blueblood takes a backseat to none of these in pedigree. Mama was a 5-time turf winner in Grade 1/Grade 2 stakes, and his half-sister Navratilova won the Grade 3 Valley View on grass at Keeneland. As for dirt, Laver's win and second in Kentucky last fall check the box. Maiden breaker last time significant in that third-place runner came back to win Dec. 16 MSW at Gulfstream and fourth-place finisher (named Banishing) romped Monday in a Fair Grounds MSW and looks to have a future. Knock is that this one tends to hang a bit late.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
No mortal locks in this department, but DREAMING OF KONA intrigues with speed in a race without much else of it.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
FLIPARINO has been 15-1 and 8-1 in two starts and should be better around one turn Sunday.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$60 win DREAMING OF KONA. $5 exacta part-wheel DREAMING OF KONA and MR BOB with DREAMING OF KONA, MR BOB, LORD MILES, GENERAL JIM, FLIPARINO ($40).