2-23-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-23-09

EXPERT: Marc Lawrence
TITLE: Never Lost College Hoops Super Play! - Mon
REASON FOR PICK: Play On: Georgetown +2
Note: When the Hoyas play host to Louisville in a key Big East battle tonight they will do so knowing they are 23-6 SU and 15-7 ATS at home in games off a SU favorite loss, including 10-0 SU and ATS if the loss was at home the previous game. Catching the Cardinals off a revenge win over Cincinnati is good. Putting them up against a sub .640 opponent off a SU favorites loss when the Cardinals are coming off a conference game is better (0-10 ATS since 1998). Look for Georgetown to get back on the winning track here tonight.

We recommend a 5-unit play on Georgetown.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-23-09

The Consensus Group Guaranteed Selections
Date: Monday, February 23, 2009
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[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-23-09

EXPERT: David Malinsky
TITLE: 5*Top of the Ticket - Louisville/Georgetown
REASON FOR PICK: 5* #513 LOUISVILLE/GEORGETOWN Under

The markets have been helping us on this one so far, pushing the plateau to 133 in most key precincts, but now that the move has stalled it is time to get in play. After these teams played to a 107 and a 110 head-to-head LY there is ample room at the anticipated pace, especially with an added caveat that makes this particular meeting even better.

Have you noticed how short the Monday college basketball boards are this season? It is only because of ESPN that we have the games that we do have, since they present awful schedule cycles for the teams. Virtually everyone plays on Saturday, which makes these settings two games in three days, and while that is not a big deal with conferences that have natural travel partners (like the Pac 10), for the Big East it is a conundrum, especially since there is no such thing as an easy game in that league these days. The Monday games produce slower tempos and lower levels of offensive efficiency, and the patterns for Rick Pitino and John Thompson in these settings has been rather remarkable the past two seasons.

This will be the sixth Saturday/Monday Big East cycle for Louisville the past two campaigns, with the previous five all playing Under, by a collective 65.5 below the projections (note, as always, that we only use regulation scoring in our tracking, which would explain why others might show a different count for the Cardinals because of their overtime vs. Notre Dame this season). For Georgetown this will be game #7, with the first six also all playing Under, by a collective 70 points below the projections. Add the two patterns together and it is an 11-0 to the Under, with the oddsmakers pricing the games an average of 12.3 points above the final result.

We do not expect that to be any different here; if anything the notion of tired legs is even more extreme this time. Louisville is 26 games into a difficult schedule (#20 Sagarin and #25 Pomeroy), and Georgetown 25 into a downright brutal one (#3 from both sources). And note that the average of 108.5 that they played to LY was not a result of some offensive flukes – the two teams actually combined to shoot 45.3 percent in those games, which is higher than we would anticipate for tonight. That makes this a stodgy affair in which nothing comes easily, and we have excellent value at the new market rate.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-23-09

Steam On-Line Guaranteed Selections
Date: Monday, February 23, 2009
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514 Georgetown +2 7:00 EST

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-23-09

kbhoops
NBA
5* Sacramento UNDER 203.5 +100 **POD**
4* Utah UNDER 205.5

CBB
4* Tenn Martin OVER 142 -120

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-23-09

Teddy June
10* Georgetown

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-23-09

Karl Garrett
20 DIMER - UTAH JAZZ.....10 DIMER - LOUISVILLE CARDINALS 20 DIMER - UTAH JAZZ