Wednesday 1/4/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-04-2023, 12:04 AM

Turfway Park Tip Sheet - January 4

Jan. 03, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 62% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $10,500 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 5:55 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	11	Lookin to Fly	C Landeros
PLACE	4-1	1	Conundrum Queen	G Corrales
SHOW	5-1	7	Dance the Day Away	L Machado
WILD CARD	5-1	9	La Tourista	W A Rodriguez

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	5	I Likem	F De La Cruz
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	4	Clever Tale	R Aragon

* EXACTA: 11-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/7/11 BOX, 1/7/9 BOX

RACE #2 $74,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/4 MILES ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 6:25 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 IDIOMATIC

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-5	4	Idiomatic	C Landeros
PLACE	8-5	1	Quality Star	J D Ramos
SHOW	30-1	7	Edgee Angel	G Corrales
WILD CARD	10-1	3	Twila Mae	E Esquivel

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	5	High Fashion	V Cheminaud
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	6	Birthday Time	L Machado

* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/7 BOX, 1/3/7 BOX

RACE #3 $80,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 6:55 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-1	8	Quick Master	J D Ramos
PLACE	2-1	7	El Kabong	C Landeros
SHOW	5-2	1	Fancy Liquor	G Corrales
WILD CARD	15-1	3	King Kumbalay	V Cheminaud

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	4	Henleys Joy	L Machado
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	2	Bandit Swanson	W A Rodriguez

* EXACTA: 8-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/7/8 BOX, 1/3/7 BOX

RACE #4 $7,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 7:25 PM ET
BEST BET: #9 DRAGON DREW

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	9	Dragon Drew	L Machado
PLACE	6-1	2	Boa Nova	J D Ramos
SHOW	9-2	4	The Boss Factor	C A Emigh
WILD CARD	15-1	3	Graceful Kitten	W A Rodriguez

ALTERNATE 1	20-1	11	Cut Glass	F Peterson
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	6	Samurai Saint	D J Haldar

* EXACTA: 9-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/9 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX

RACE #5 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 7:55 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	7	Tap the Candy	L Machado
PLACE	7-2	8	Tuskegee Cat	J E Felix
SHOW	6-1	4	Rampatious	E Esquivel
WILD CARD	15-1	6	Versatile	D J Haldar

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	9	Workinfromhome	W A Rodriguez
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	12	The Big Mozz	G Corrales

* EXACTA: 7-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/7/8 BOX, 4/6/8 BOX

RACE #6 $16,000 CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 8:25 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	4	A Real Hero	W A Rodriguez
PLACE	4-1	1	Complete	G Corrales
SHOW	12-1	6	Hashtag Winner	C Landeros
WILD CARD	3-1	9	Princess Nina	T Canuto

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	7	Neversaynoletsgo	J McKee
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	3	Tiltingatwindmills	R Chirinos

* EXACTA: 4-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX, 6-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/6 BOX, 1/6/9 BOX

RACE #7 $74,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 8:55 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 FEE

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	4	Fee	J D Ramos
PLACE	6-1	6	Moon Magic Chrissy	L Machado
SHOW	9-2	9	Mean Sue	M Franklin
WILD CARD	8-1	7	Castelmola	J McKee

ALTERNATE 1	9-2	5	Jill Jitterbug	E Esquivel
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	3	Seachrome	S E Bermudez

* EXACTA: 4-6 BOX, 6-9 BOX, 9-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/9 BOX, 6/7/9 BOX

RACE #8 $7,500 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE ALL WEATHER TRACK - POST TIME: 9:25 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-2	11	Gin N Sin	V Lebron
PLACE	4-1	4	Isabel de Clare	A Lezcano
SHOW	7-2	10	Bird Hunter	G Corrales
WILD CARD	8-1	9	Miss Sovelia	T Canuto

ALTERNATE 1	8-5	14	Puglia	J Elliott
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	6	Olivias Joy	A Beckman

* EXACTA: 11-4 BOX, 4-10 BOX, 10-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/10/11 BOX, 4/9/10 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-04-2023, 12:05 AM

Tampa Bay Downs Tip sheet - January 4

Jan. 03, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $5,000 CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:31 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 SIR AGGRAVATOR

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-5	6	Sir Aggravator	R D Allen Jr.
PLACE	4-1	1	Mr Lightning Boy	A A Gallardo
SHOW	5-2	5	Arcadia Calls	M Rowland
WILD CARD	5-1	2	Ask for Bode	H R Diaz Jr.

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	3	Paladio	S Camacho
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	4	Rockysbuckaroo	H Villa-Gomez

* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX

RACE #2 $23,500 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:00 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-5	4	Flag Woman	H Villa-Gomez
PLACE	2-1	2	Astonishing Anabel	A S Arroyo
SHOW	6-1	6	Glass Star	S Camacho
WILD CARD	6-1	3	Girl Afraid	P Morales

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	1	Binoche	S Marin
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	5	Elsas Rocket	R D Allen Jr.

* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/6 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX

RACE #3 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:27 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-2	5	Eau Claire	D Centeno
PLACE	9-2	7	Silver Sprinter	S Camacho
SHOW	3-1	3	The Sweaty Fox	J L Castanon
WILD CARD	6-1	4	Irish Kitten	A Green

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	2	Morena Dancer	C G Dominguez
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	8	Syllabus	W Alencar

* EXACTA: 5-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/7 BOX, 3/4/7 BOX

RACE #4 $25,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 5 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:53 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 AZTEC LEGEND

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	4	Aztec Legend	S Marin
PLACE	5-1	5	Exquisito Coco	K Mendez
SHOW	4-1	7	Discreet Magic	M Rowland
WILD CARD	9-2	8	Rainbows Pride	P Morales

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	3	Music Gem	J Alicea
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	6	Bad Water	M Meneses

* EXACTA: 4-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/7 BOX, 5/7/8 BOX

RACE #5 $18,600 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:20 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	8-5	3	Investment Income	S Camacho
PLACE	8-1	4	Roundabout	J C Ferrer
SHOW	8-1	6	Dynas Honor	P Morales
WILD CARD	4-1	8	Any Port	H R Diaz Jr.

ALTERNATE 1	7-2	5	Dry Humor	A Suarez
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	2	Im Nervous Now	A A Gallardo

* EXACTA: 3-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/6 BOX, 4/6/8 BOX

RACE #6 $8,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE 40 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:50 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	2	Watch for the Lute	S Camacho
PLACE	5-2	5	I Am That I Am	L Sanchez
SHOW	7-2	7	Mapache G	H R Diaz Jr.
WILD CARD	8-1	8	Noicattaro	A Flores

ALTERNATE 1	9-2	1	Shimmering Light	A Suarez
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	6	Nip of Bourbon	E M Walker

* EXACTA: 2-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/7 BOX, 5/7/8 BOX

RACE #7 $16,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:20 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 BIRDS EYE VIEW

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	2	Birds Eye View	P Morales
PLACE	6-1	1	Dcraziness	S Spieth
SHOW	10-1	3	Albie	K J Coa
WILD CARD	5-1	7	Joe Phillips	J L Castanon

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	9	Big Red Rocks	D Centeno
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	10	Centerfoldprospect	H R Diaz Jr.

* EXACTA: 2-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 1/3/7 BOX

RACE #8 $7,000 CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:50 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	4	Native Hawk	S Camacho
PLACE	9-2	7	Chucky	R A Bracho
SHOW	3-1	2	Ocean Ride	S Camacho Jr.
WILD CARD	7-2	6	Camptown Races	J C Ferrer

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	3	Flipping Fish	A Suarez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	1	Banditoftheprairie	A S Arroyo

* EXACTA: 4-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/7 BOX, 2/6/7 BOX

RACE #9 $27,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:20 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-1	3	Sweet Track	D Centeno
PLACE	3-1	10	Thegirlfromireland	A Suarez
SHOW	15-1	6	Fancy Dress	J L Castanon
WILD CARD	9-2	1	Volatility	P Morales

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	4	Lightress	S Camacho
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	5	Ella Frances	A A Gallardo

* EXACTA: 3-10 BOX, 10-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/10 BOX, 1/6/10 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-04-2023, 12:06 AM

Gulfstream Park Hotlist - January 4

Jan. 03, 2023

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (10) Morgan’s Bluff rallied for second in her last try on turf and gets the nod here. (5) Artifact makes her debut on turf and seems well-bred for it. (4) Take It South might wake up in a claimer. (1) Breaking Bullet could control the early pace from the rail. Betting strategy: 10 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-5-10.
3rd race – (7) Mandy Green (A) missed by a neck in a sharp try and should make amends here. (3) Zisisit comes off a solid maiden win and merits attention. (2) Maria’s Revenge would benefit from a quick pace. (6) Chess Not Checkers fits in with this group. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-7. Exactas: 3-7 over 2-6 and 2-6 over 3-7. Doubles: 2-3-6-7 with 1-3-4-7.
4th race – (1) Ana’s Gun was a solid second in her debut and should graduate here. (3) Mija rallied for second last time and may improve on Lasix. (7) Undoubtedly certainly figures to be a factor here. (4) Mutola might be a factor in her debut. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3. Exactas: 1-3 over 4-7 and 4-7 over 1-3.
6th race – (2) Elusive Mischief should appreciate the distance and the move to Tapeta and handle this field. (1) Crack Shot may benefit from a rail trip. (7) He’s in Charge could respond with a better try while running on Tapeta. (5) Charmed will be a contender on his best try. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-5-7.
8th race – (1) Collaborate drops in class and should be tough to beat at this shorter distance. (9) Celestial Glaze should be closing quickly at the end and might be the main threat. (6) Create Again may take a step forward off the Walder claim. (10) Ludington will welcome a dry track. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-6-9-10.

No.		Letter/Last race	Today’s race	Comment
(7)	Mandy Green	A, 12/9	3 GP	Missed by a neck last time

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-04-2023, 12:08 AM

Hong Kong Preview: Alex seeks a princely triumph
Alastair Bull

#4 Prince Alex can progress from a last-start third to win the Hoi Yuen Handicap at Happy Valley on Wednesday.
Happy Valley Race 9 plays:

$10 win/$30 show: #4 Prince Alex ($40)
$1.30 trifecta: 3, 4 with 1, 3, 4 with 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8 ($20.80)

A two-time winner who was stakes-placed in Victoria when known as Prince Alexander, the four-year-old finished fifth at his first four Hong Kong starts before making up good ground for third in a Class 3 event Dec. 14 at Happy Valley over 1,650 meters (about 1 mile, 40 yards), the same trip as this race.

Prince Alex didn’t pick up any ratings points for that effort, so he’s still well in at the weights. From barrier six, jockey Antoine Hamelin should be able to find a midfield spot close to the rail and deliver a strong challenge in the stretch.

Not far behind Prince Alex in that Dec. 14 race was #3 Dynamic Spirit. The dual Brazilian Classic winner finished fourth that day, his best effort in five Hong Kong starts, but he had to work hard to get to the front from a wide gate and was still available to fight hard in the stretch.

With a nicer barrier draw of five and Zac Purton back in the saddle, Dynamic Spirit can get a cosier run in transit and challenge hard in the stretch.

Course specialist #1 Red Majesty, a winner of eight races at the city circuit, can’t be ignored after two strong efforts for second at his last two performances. However, he has a horror draw of 11 to contend with, and it will take all of apprentice Angus Chung’s skills to get him near the lead, where he likes to be. Chung’s 10-pound allowance will undoubtedly help.

#8 Casa Cosmo could be an interesting horse to watch for odds. A two-race winner in Australia when known as Benczkowski, he was totally unwanted at his Hong Kong debut Dec. 4 but made ground well over about seven furlongs at Sha Tin. By Tavistock, he is bred to excel over at least a mile and could find his way into the placings.

The consistent #7 Majestic Victory and #5 All Beauty are others to consider for exotics.
Bet live racing at Happy Valley
Bonus play – New Zealand
Reefton, Wednesday Jan. 4, Race 6, 9:56 p.m. ET: Ken Gray Memorial Reefton Cup

$10 win/$40 place, #2 Kopua: Trainer Kevin Myers is usually very successful on the New Year circuit on the West Coast of New Zealand’s South Island, and Kopua was second in this race last year. He was runner-up in the Stewards (G3) at his last start and is well up to winning this.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-04-2023, 12:11 AM

Geelong best bets & quaddie tips | January 4, 2023
January 2, 2023 4:47 pm.
Ciaran Jackman

What Geelong Races
Where Geelong Racecourse – 99 Breakwater Rd, Breakwater, VIC, 3219
When Wednesday, January 4, 2023
First Race 1:15pm AEDT
Ladbrokes Logo

Visit Ladbrokes

Racing will return to Geelong Racecourse this Wednesday, where it will host a very competitive eight-race program. The track is currently rated a Good 4, but with rain on the forecast for Western Victoria on Monday and Tuesday, we could be on a Soft track come raceday. The rail will be in the True position for the entire circuit, when racing kicks off at 1:15pm AEDT.
Best Bet at Geelong – Disputed River

In the second race of the day, we will be siding with the Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr-trained Disputed River, who will be returning from a six-month spell. This son of American Pharoah ran second at his last two starts to end his first racing campaign, over 1600m and 2100m. On Wednesday, this lightly raced four-year-old will resume in a 1700m Maiden Plate, with the benefit of having three jump-outs over the last two months, meaning that he should be ready to go first-up. Beau Mertens will take the sit on this guy for the first time in his career and from barrier eight, he should be able to push forward and be prominent in the running. At all of his jump-outs this time in, they have been positive and led in all three, which indicates to us that he will be very fit going into this first-up run and should be breaking his maiden with even luck.
Best Bet

Race 2 – Silk #1 Disputed River (8)

4yo Gelding | T: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr | J: Beau Mertens (59.5kg)

$4 with Unibet
Next Best at Geelong – Miss Magnifico

In the 3YO Benchmark 64 Handicap over 1200m, Miss Magnifico from the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace yard will be looking to record back-to-back wins at her second start of her career. On debut this three-year-old filly was too good for a small field at Bairnsdale on December 4 over 1000m, defeating Atomic Eagle by 4.5 lengths, who has come out and won since at Yarra Valley two weeks ago. This daughter of Magnus should be suited by the rise from 1000m to 1200m now that she is second-up, as she will be fitter and would have taken a lot from her debut performance, in terms of experience and race manners. John Allen will take the ride on Wednesday, and from barrier six he should have her settle in the one-one, without doing a lot of work and if she shows the same turn of foot that she showed on debut, she will go very close.
Next Best

Race 6 – Silk #11 Miss Magnifico (6)

3yo Filly | T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace | J: John Allen (57.5kg)

$5.50 with Bet365
Best Value at Geelong – Magnetic Prince

After a very unlucky run at Bendigo last start, Magnetic Prince from the Daniel Bowman yard looks to have found a very winnable race in the fourth race of the day over 1500m. Last start this five-year-old gelding was second-last on the home bend strung up behind a wall of horses as the field straightened and had to pick his way through the pack, before rocketing home to go down narrowly in the final stages of the 1400m event. This son of Magnus will step up to 1500m, where he has won before, and if he can get an ounce of luck on Wednesday, he should be flashing home late to stake his claim in the concluding stages.
Best Value

Race 4 – Silk #7 Magnetic Prince (9)

5yo Gelding | T: Daniel Bowman | J: Daniel Moor (60kg)

$8 with Palmerbet
Wednesday Quaddie Tips for Geelong
Geelong quadrella selections

Wednesday, January 4, 2023

1-2-3-9
8-10-11-13
4-5-6
3-4-9-13

Investment: $192 for 100%

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-04-2023, 12:12 AM

Warwick Farm racing preview & best bets | Wednesday 4/1/2023
January 2, 2023 3:44 pm.
Nathan Keven

What Warwick Farm Races
Where Warwick Farm Racecourse – Governor Macquarie Dr, Warwick Farm NSW 2170
When Wednesday, January 4, 2023
First Race 2:15pm AEDT

Visit Ladbrokes

Metropolitan racing heads back to Warwick Farm on Wednesday afternoon for a competitive seven-race program set down for decision. The rail is back in the true position the entire circuit and we’re currently listed to be racing on a Good 4 surface. However, there is some rain forecast around the region so we’re expecting a Soft 5 downgrade as the worst-case scenario in terms of conditions.

The first race is set to get underway at 2:15pm AEDT
Best Bet at Warwick Farm: Elettrica

Race three is where you’ll find our best bet of the afternoon with the Joseph Pride-trained Elettrica looking set to find success fourth-up this preparation. Since arriving in Australia from across the Tasman, Elettrica has been consistent without winning as she tends to do a few things wrong including missing the start as she did last time out at Randwick behind the smart filly Sunshine In Paris on December 24. She got back before powering to the line, and we think provided she can lift from the barrier four drawn for Wednesday afternoon this form looks the strongest in this BM72 contest for the fillies and mares. This race is for apprentices only and we get a good jockey on board as Reece Jones takes the reins along with his 1.5kg claim. She looks ready to peak on Wednesday afternoon and amongst a field of nine acceptors, Elettrica looks to have some class on her opposition here.
Best Bet

Race 3 – Silks#1 Elettrica (4)

4yo Mare | T: Joseph Pride | J: Reece Jones (a1.5)(59.5kg)

$2.90 with Bet365
Next Best at Warwick Farm: Step Aside

Step Aside was competitive on debut when first-up at Warwick Farm on December 21 and should only improve with the running coming into this 1400m maiden event on Wednesday. This son of Redwood should take plenty of upside when beaten just 0.2 lengths to Victory Lane, as Step Aside kicked up to lead before fitness just got him headed going to the line. He’s drawn out in barrier-13 on Wednesday, and we think that might be a benefit as James McDonald may elect to take a sit rather than leading them the whole way as he did on debut. The James McDonald and Chris Waller combination will be in full effect on Wednesday afternoon so we may need to take a slight under the odds quote with online Bookmakers, but the $2.50 on offer looks good enough for us.
Next Best

Race 2 – Silks#12 Step Aside (13)

3yo Gelding | T: Chris Waller | J: James McDonald (57.5kg)

$2.50 with Unibet
Best Value at Warwick Farm: Mezidon

We’re looking to get all our returns early in the card including our best value runner as the Chris Waller-trained Mezidon makes his debut on Wednesday afternoon. This five-year-old gelding has produced some nice trials of late on the Synthetic surfaces at Randwick and Warwick Farm respectively, and looks primed to be competitive in his first career start in this 1200m maiden contest. James McDonald has elected to take the sit on race favourite Different Road; however, we think the top weight has plenty of potential. While the 1200m may be a little short of this Siyouni geldings’ best distance, the fact we’re getting an each-way price for this debutant makes him our top pick and a great bet in what looks an open race on paper. Nash Rawiller takes the reins and there isn’t a better suited jockey to ride these European bred types with big weights. We expect Nash will provide a bold sight once finding a prominent spot mid-race.
Best Value

Race 1 – silks#1 Mezidon (4)

5yo Gelding | T: Chris Waller | J: Nash Rawiller (59kg)

$8 with Bet365
Wednesday quaddie tips for Warwick Farm races
Warwick Farm quadrella selections

Wednesday, January 4, 2023

3-5
1-2-3-6
3-5-6-8
2-3-7-12

Investment: $128 for 100%

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-04-2023, 12:13 AM

Happy Valley racing tips & quaddie picks | Wednesday 4/1/2023
January 3, 2023 11:57 am.
Nathan Keven

What Happy Valley Races
Where Happy Valley Racecourse – Wong Nai Chung Rd, Happy Valley, Hong Kong
When Wednesday, January 4, 2023
First Race 6:45pm HKT (9:45pm AEDT)

Visit Ladbrokes

Hong Kong racing heads back to the city circuit on Wednesday night as Happy Valley provides us with a nine-race program to sink our teeth into. Vincent Ho is ready to bounce off a four-timer at Sha Tin on Sunday, while Karis Teetan will be looking to replicate his feat of three winners at Happy Valley last week. As always Zac Purton has another strong book of rides and looks on track to continue his dominance in the 22/23 Hong Kong racing jockey challenge for the season.

We’re racing on a Good to Firm deck on Wednesday night and the rail goes back into the A position the entire circuit, so look for the inside running rail to be hot, and times be swift throughout the meeting. The first race is set to get us underway at 6:45pm HKT (9:45pm AEDT)
Best Bet at Happy Valley: Villa Fionn

The third race on the program sees the class drop of Villa Fionn and looks ready to find another win as Class 4 seems his best opportunity to score this preparation. The now eight-year-old by Sebring has always performed well at this level and his last win back on February 16 in 2022 came over this very track and distance. His form looks well rated here dropping back in grade after a strong effort behind Encountered in Class 3 as they clocked fast time running 1:39:13 and Villia Fionn posted some of the fastest closing sectionals of the race. He draws barrier seven now and the 4.5kg claim of apprentice Angus Chung will come in very handy dropping down to 56.5kg at this level, he’s in extremely well at the weights and provides a class edge on his rivals. So long as Chung can find cover somewhere mid-field turning for home, we think he’s very hard to hold out in this company.
Best Bet

Race 3 – #1 Villa Fionn (7)

8yo Gelding | T: Ricky Yiu | J: Angus Chung (a4.5) (61kg)

Top Odds with Bet365
Next Best at Happy Valley: Juneau Flash

Race seven is for the 1000m sprinters in Class 4 and Juneau Flash for the Zac Purton and John Size combination looks another nice bet for the evening. His run behind race rival Faribault last start over this track and distance on December 21 was outstanding as he flew home to miss by a half-length on the line. He was one of the only horses able to make ground in that effort and looks to find another race with plenty of speed to suit. From barrier five Purton will look to find some cover mid-field and stalk the hot tempo in this sprinter affair. Juneau Flash gets a nice swing in the weights as well on Faribault and the race shape here looks much better than last time when he was defeated. Provided he gets the run we think he will in transit, he looks the one to beat and should be a maiden no longer after Wednesday night.
Next Best

Race 7 – #4 Juneau Flash (5)

4yo Gelding | T: John Size | J: Zac Purton (58.5kg)

Bet with Ladbrokes
Next Best Again at Happy Valley: Beauty Mission

Beauty Mission has been consistent this preparation and finds a nice Class 4 1200m contest on Wednesday night. He’s a long-standing maiden galloper who in his 13 starts has found the minor money on four occasions including last start at Happy Valley on IJC night running into an on the rise Gold Gold Baby on December 7. He was outmatched that evening and now finds himself well drawn in a race where most of the other market elects have drawn outside gates, so this looks a nice opportunity for Hugh Bowman to be a little more positive than he was last time out. This is Beauty Mission’s second time at Happy Valley and his fourth start now in Class 4, so if he doesn’t perform in this race on Wednesday night it’s hard to see where his maiden win comes from, so this looks like the best time to be backing this son of Pluck.
Next Best Again

Race 5 – #2 Beauty Mission (2)

5yo Gelding | T: Frankie Lor | J: Hugh Bowman (60kg)

Bet with Unibet
Best Value at Happy Valley: All Beauty

All Beauty was one of the clear forgive performances on IJC night, as Jamie Kah was too far back on this All Too Hard gelding to have any chance on December 7 behind Winning Dragon. He was beaten just three-lengths on that occasion and just pretend it was a barrier trial cause that’s essentially all it was, as he never got clear at any stage before finding the line well. Going back through his form at Sha Tin reads well for this 1650m Class 3 affair as his times and rating suggest he’s not far away from a win. It’s one of the more open races on the nine-race program and we believe you’ll be getting a nice each-way price when markets open with online Bookmakers. Vincent Ho is flying after an incredible four-timer at Sha Tin on Sunday and suspect he can keep his form going on Wednesday night as All Beauty is a better chance than what the market may suggest.
Best Value

Race 8 – #5 All Beauty (2)

5yo Gelding | T: Frankie Lor | J: Vincent Ho (56kg)

Bet with Neds
Wednesday quaddie tips for Happy Valley
Happy Valley quadrella selections

Wednesday, January 3, 2023

1-5-6-9-12
1-4-7
3-4-5-8-12
1-3-9

Investment: $225 for 100%

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-04-2023, 05:13 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Turfway Park - Race #3

#3 King Kumbalay	Not convinced we're getting all of the 15/1 ML price here off what feels like a competitive effort at Delaware, and he has run well over synthetic footing in the past. He's fast enough to get the jump on the finishing threats. Lots to like.
#7 El Kabong	His recent baseline effort is just better than what most of these can bring, but I worry he's not going to get a super advantageous race shape in here and could be along too late. Stout rally makes him a player.
#8 Quick Master	He has run okay here in the past and returns off an easy win on the Mountaineer main, and there's a chance they'll try to hustle and find the front in a race without a ton of serious pace.
Race Summary	Think King Kumbalay should get a great trip near the top in a race without a whole lot of confirmed pace, and he might offer an okay mid-range price with these.

Turfway Park - Race #5

#11 Influential	I don't think there's a whole lot to be excited about in here, and most of the logical players in the main body have had more than their share of chances already. This guy showed a small hint of ability in his Laurel debut before a trio of duds at Fair Grounds. Back off the bench, maybe he'll be better with this kind.
#8 Tuskegee Cat	He has some running lines that fit, especially that last one over the synthetic footing at Golden Gate, and he's probably a good fit at this level with the locals. Wouldn't surprise.
#14 Off the Cuff	He's one of two drawn on the also-eligible list for the Maker barn along with #13 Mr. Yasuda, and they both seem capable enough in a weak spot, but the team is a bad bet from an ROI perspective in this kind of race, and both could get wide trips.
Race Summary	Influential comes back off the layoff as a first-time gelding, and he has some room to improve while trying maiden claimers for the first time. The price should be fair to give him a swing.

Turfway Park - Race #7

#3 Seachrome	She's far from the likeliest winner in this one, but I'm not thrilled about the pretty logical types in here. That said, she has some upside compared to most in here, having only raced early on in her 2-year-old season. If she has come forward at all, I don't think she's as far off these as the price is likely to suggest. The 0-for-50 rider is another concern -- demand a big price.
#10 Hurricane Debbie	Her two starts outside of stakes company have both been pretty good, and she'll race with Lasix for the first time in here. Guessing she's got a lot of bounce-back potential.
#9 Mean Sue	She steps up off the sharp win against $50,000 company, and this team saw fit to jump in and take a shot with her. She steps up with form that seems to fit, but class is a question.
Race Summary	Hurricane Debbie, Mean Sue, and #4 Fee look like the logical trio in here, but I'm not sure this is the deepest race for this level locally, and maybe Seachrome has grown into her own a bit into this first start of her 3-year-old season.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-04-2023, 05:14 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Parx - Race #1

#6 GOLDEN BOW (5-1)	Been coming up short in the stretch, adds blinkers for second start off layoff.
#7 JOHNNYSLITTLEGIRL (4-1)	Runs for Hernandez, going well with Lasix, use in all gimmicks.
#1 CATALON (6-1)	Just broke her maiden at this distance for red-hot barn.
Race Summary	GOLDEN BOW had a useful return run at Parx after eight months away but faded in a short sprint. She led at the stretch call in four of her previous five starts at Gulfstream and could get focused to go the distance with blinkers on. Bet to win and place.

Parx - Race #2

#10 HOPE FOR GOLD (5-1)	In top form, took command in-hand, could sit similar trip in repeat try.
#4 PELOTA (8-5)	‘Dug in gamely’ but couldn’t get by 15-1 winner at notch above.
#5 HORSE BE WITH YOU (6-1)	Hit board in 9 of 21 last year, overland trip took its toll in recent route.
Race Summary	HOPE FOR GOLD validated his improved recent form with a 13-length victory at this distance. He swept past the leaders while 5-wide and in-hand on the final turn and widened when set down for the stretch drive. Bet to win and place.

Parx - Race #4

#2 HE’S GOT IT (9-2)	Wide throughout in latest, all-or-nothing type for recent 29-percent claim barn.
#5 MIZZEN MAN (9-5)	‘Continued well’ while wide, had a win and two seconds in prior four sprints.
#9 SPAN OF CONTROL (6-1)	Remains hot claim, major player if you discount try on ‘muddy’ track.
Race Summary	HE’S GOT IT tries a short sprint on the main track for the first time, but he does it for a barn that is 4-for-14 off the claim in the last month. He was a beaten favorite in his first try at this level and his price should go up. Bet to win and place and play a 2/5,9/ALL trifecta.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-04-2023, 05:19 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Charles Town

PURCHASE

Charles Town - Race 1	Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double (1-2) / Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3)
Claiming $10,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 76 • Purse: $19,400 • Post: 7:00P
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $8,000 1 LB. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $6,250 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES) NO WVB CLAUSE.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. MY MIRACLE MAN is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MYSTIFIED: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. MY MIRACLE MAN: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. TRIPLE TITOS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. PLAYBOY ROY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. DIVINING DANCER: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
1	MYSTIFIED	6/5	5/1
5	MY MIRACLE MAN	10/1	7/1
6	TRIPLE TITOS	9/2	8/1
8	PLAYBOY ROY	4/1	8/1
7	DIVINING DANCER	12/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	MY MIRACLE MAN	5	10/1	Front-runner	66	70	68.2	40.0	27.0
1	MYSTIFIED	1	6/5	Stalker	82	77	47.4	68.3	65.8
7	DIVINING DANCER	7	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	79	69	54.0	62.6	55.1
8	PLAYBOY ROY	8	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	76	68	41.6	66.6	61.6
6	TRIPLE TITOS	6	9/2	Alternator/Trailer	81	74	39.0	63.2	57.2
3	MAKE THE WAY CLEAR	3	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	70	69	67.6	61.8	52.3
2	RAYO NEGRO	2	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	57	50	57.8	46.8	32.8
4	DUKE OF CORK	4	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	69	53	48.8	29.8	16.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-04-2023, 05:20 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta DownsPURCHASE

Delta Downs - Race 1	Exacta / Trifecta (.50 min.) / Superfecta (.10 min.) Daily Double (Races 1-2)($1 min.) / Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) / Pick 5 (Races 1-5)
Claiming $5,000 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 4:55P
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JULY 4, 2022 OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES IN 2022. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 4 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * HOLDING FAST: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaste r Power Rating. LEMNISCATE: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. DAAH ERS BULLY: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CURTIN'S UP: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
4	HOLDING FAST	5/1	5/1
5	LEMNISCATE	8/1	6/1
1	DAAHERS BULLY	3/1	7/1
3	CURTIN'S UP	9/2	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	DAAHERS BULLY	3	3/1	Front-runner	77	71	82.8	67.6	58.1
7	KENSLEY'S HIPPIE	8	15/1	Front-runner	76	71	77.2	53.8	38.3
3	CURTIN'S UP	2	9/2	Front-runner	84	70	60.8	60.2	53.7
5	LEMNISCATE	6	8/1	Alternator/Front-runner	86	84	64.8	77.0	70.0
6	WONDER RUN	7	2/1	Stalker	78	73	59.6	66.4	58.9
4	HOLDING FAST	4	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	83	80	43.0	71.8	66.3
2	JONATHAN WHO	1	6/1	Trailer	81	65	35.0	66.8	58.3
1A	LUKE'S CAJUN STAR	5	3/1	Alternator/Non-contender	82	66	27.2	56.6	45.1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-04-2023, 05:20 AM

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream ParkPURCHASE

01/04/23, GP, Race 9, 4.09 ET
01/04/23,GP,9,5 1/2F [All Weather] 1:02:02 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $24,000 (includes up to $3,000 FTHA-FOA). FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. Weight, 118 lbs. Claiming Price $16,000.
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	7	Fia First(b+)	9/2	Ortiz J L	Maragh Shamir	TFW	110	37.27	1.15/$1
095.6216	4	Kavala	3/1	Ortiz. Jr. I	D'Angelo Jose Francisc	J	117	35.90	1.08/$1
095.4920	2	Go Mika	5/1	Vasquez M A	Spatz Ronald B.		84	38.10	1.20/$1
094.2403	10	Cosetta	20/1	Morales A	Pinnock Hubert	S	42	45.24	1.35/$1
093.5976	11	My Real Dream	12/1	Leon S	Dibona Bobby S.		42	45.24	1.35/$1
093.5182	8	Valiant Shi Shi	4/1	Saez L	Moubarak Mohamed	C	84	38.10	1.20/$1
092.5904	9	Two Beer Buzz	10/1	Panici L	Pinnock Hubert	E	42	45.24	1.35/$1
092.1356	1	Tovia	12/1	Reyes L	Cazares Laura		117	35.90	1.08/$1
091.6821	3	My Microburst	8/1	Bridgmohan S	Englehart Jeremiah C.		42	45.24	1.35/$1
090.7306	6	Always Sun	30/1	Morelos J E	Sano Antonio	L	42	45.24	1.35/$1
090.4434	5	Awesome Marina	20/1	Rios J M	Jimenez Jose M.		42	45.24	1.35/$1

Top rated horse With "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 28.00, ROI 0.52/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -4.3784
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[All Dirt] Best Workouts

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-04-2023, 05:21 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Tampa Bay Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $13500 Class Rating: 87

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JULY 4. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 ASK FOR BODE 5/1
# 3 PALADIO 6/1
# 5 ARCADIA CALLS 5/2

I back ASK FOR BODE here. With a nice class fig average of 90, has one of the best class advantages in this field. Has performed solidly as of late in sprint races, posting a nifty 79 avg speed fig. This gelding should be carefully examined just off the earnings per start in dirt sprint races alone. PALADIO - Recently Camacho has been on fire which may give the edge to this gelding. ARCADIA CALLS - Formidable average Equibase Speed Figs in dirt sprint races make this pony a definite contender. Has a strong record at the distance and surface, which makes me like this gelding.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-04-2023, 05:21 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Turfway Park - Race #4 - Post: 7:25pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $25,000 Class Rating: 90

Rating:

#9 DRAGON DREW (ML=3/1)
#1 EL BOHEMIO (ML=20/1)
#11 CUT GLASS (ML=20/1)

DRAGON DREW - This gelding should be at the fitness peak, this far into his form cycle. This pony coming off a sharp try in the last 30 days is a strong challenger in my humble opinion. This gelding earned a strong fig of 90 in his last affair. That speed figure should be strong enough to prove victorious this time around. EL BOHEMIO - This gelding is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Esquivel. A little change in scenery has got to do this animal well. Reading the past performances, it seems like he likes to visit the winner's circle on different ovals. CUT GLASS - Peterson was aboard this horse last race out and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. This horse is in exceptional form right now. Finished second in the last race and comes back rapidly.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 THE BOSS FACTOR (ML=9/2), #5 PACHI (ML=5/1), #2 BOA NOVA (IRE) (ML=6/1),

THE BOSS FACTOR - This entrant ran a mediocre rating in the last race. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will likely get beat in today's event running that figure. PACHI - Not the proper 'fit' in this race. BOA NOVA (IRE) - Awfully tough to wager on this pony when he hasn't been showing any signs of readiness lately. Not likely for this horse to do much running with no recent good showings in a sprint race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #9 DRAGON DREW on top if we're getting at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	9 with [1,11]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,9,11] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

Wednesday 1/4/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Wednesday 1/4/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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