Friday 1/13/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Gulfstream Park Hotlist - January 13

Jan. 12, 2023


By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (8) Papa Jojo returns to a claimer and seems poised for a winning effort. (2) Covert Kat will welcome a return to turf. (5) Testa has not raced in more than a year but is working nicely for his comeback. (12) Jerry’s Turn wound up with a tough post but has been consistent at this level. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-5-8-12.
4th race – (7) Bee by the Sea missed by a half-length in a good effort last time and should reach the winner’s circle here. (3) High Press should appreciate the added distance here. (9) Game Boy Benny has some speed and could be tough to catch. (8) Souper Success ships in from Woodbine and is worth a look. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-7-8-9. Doubles: 3-7-8-9 with 3-4-5-12.
5th race – (5) War Strategy (C) was bet down from 5-2 to 9-5 and settled for second. Makes amends here. (3) My Man Flint seeks a third straight win and should be the main rival. (12) Regal Speaker fits nicely here but drew a tough post. (4) Nantasket Beach should perk up back on turf. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-4-5-12.
7th race – (2) Mouillage was a close fourth for Chad Brown at Keeneland and figures to work out a winning trip here. (5) English Bee has been running in stakes and will enjoy the class relief in his return to the races. (8) Breaking the Rules has late kick and will be a factor in the stretch run. (6) Sky’s Not Falling has some speed and can make his presence felt. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-5-6-8. Doubles: 2-5-6-8 with 1-2-3-4.
8th race – (1) Nitrous Channel can put his speed to full use from the rail and may not look back. (3) Bourbon Creed won his debut and should be a top contender here. (4) Kissalot may respond to the turnback to a sprint. (2) Palace Kitten had a rough trip last time and can make amends here. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3. Exacta: 1-3 over 2-4 and 2-4 over 1-3.

No.		Letter/Last race	Today’s race	Comment
(5)	War Strategy	C, 12/16	5 GP	Settled for second last time

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Aqueduct Hotlist - January 13

Jan. 12, 2023


By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1^st race [Md 20000, 1 mi] – (1) Candlestick Maker moved from turf to dirt and rallied for the best finish of her career when she was neck behind the top spot in a similar race at Aqueduct at the end of November. (4) Alwajd was third in her second race following a layoff. She will drop down another notch. (5) Tekila has a lot of chances at this level and has seven top three finishes in her 17 starts. (6) Frosty Invasion gets blinkers on as she moves from NY-bred maiden claimers for the first time.
2^nd race [Clm 25000 N2L, 1 mi] – (3) Brisky Frolic gets blinkers on for her third start after a layoff and drops out of a starter allowance where she was overmatched. She was an easy front-end winner of a $40,000 maiden claimer. She is expected to be on the lead as she moves to an appropriate race choice. (1) Dancing Sophia broke her maiden in a $20,000 claimer and then was fourth and third in a pair of starter allowances. (2) In Traffic got her first career victory last time out in a $30,000 claimer. (4) Run Devil moved to the New York barn of George Weaver from Florida and has made two improved starts at Aqueduct including a narrow head loss in a similar spot to this condition.
3^rd race [Md 20000, 7F] – (3) Warrior Richard drops down to this low maiden claiming level after a fifth and a second where he was well bet both times. (2) Scootscoot was third behind the top choice in his last start that was for a $30,000 tag. (4) El Gran Cuyaya was sixth in his debut in a $40,000 maiden claimer. (6) Stormandy makes his second start following his debut in a maiden special weight against a strong field back in October for Charlie Baker who has strong stats with horses coming from layoffs of 61 to 180 days.
4^th race [Alw 50000s, 1 mi] – (1) Sa Foradada ships up from Fair Hills after a pair of second-place finishes at this level at Aqueduct. (2) Alpine Queen had the lead in a starter allowance and battled down the stretch losing by a neck. (3) Diamond Collector was second in a $50,000 open claimer in her second start after a long layoff for John Toscano who claimed her two races back. (4) My First Love won a $30,000 beaten claiming race by more than three lengths going the one-turn mile at the Big A.Best bets: Candlestick Maker (1^st); Brisky Frolic (2^nd). Best value: Warrior Richard (3^rd); So Foradada (4th).

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs

PURCHASE

Delta Downs - Race 9	Exacta / Trifecta (.50 min.) / Superfecta (.10 min)
Claiming $5,000 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 64 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 8:52P
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 13 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * OGA BEAR: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. AHIMAAZ: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. JUST PLAIN MAD: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. SUNSET WAR: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. JACKIE M OON: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position.
4	OGA BEAR	3/1	5/1
5	AHIMAAZ	9/2	5/1
2	JUST PLAIN MAD	20/1	8/1
10	SUNSET WAR	8/1	9/1
3	JACKIE MOON	4/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	JUST PLAIN MAD	2	20/1	Front-runner	62	67	76.4	45.4	37.4
9	LOOKIN FOR LARRY	9	8/1	Front-runner	55	56	66.6	37.8	22.8
3	JACKIE MOON	3	4/1	Front-runner	62	54	64.0	51.2	41.7
4	OGA BEAR	4	3/1	Front-runner	67	58	63.0	58.4	52.9
1	CLASSIC RED RACER	1	15/1	Front-runner	48	50	57.8	43.0	28.5
10	SUNSET WAR	10	8/1	Front-runner	71	64	53.9	46.8	39.3
6	MOONSHINE MAX	6	12/1	Front-runner	56	43	41.0	39.2	21.7
8	CORN SOUP	8	5/1	Alternator/Front-runner	66	58	56.4	45.4	32.9
5	AHIMAAZ	5	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	70	65	53.4	54.4	51.4
7	SOUTH AL SPARKY	7	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	66	51	46.4	43.2	28.2

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Golden Hour WagersPURCHASE

Golden Hour Wagers - Race 4	Leg 4 of the Golden Hour Pick 4 Leg 2 of the Golden Hour Double
Starter Allowance $50,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 4 and up • CR: 94 • Purse: $22,000 • Post: 4:52P
GG - R8 - FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $50,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE OCTOBER 15 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 5 LBS. (ONE WIN FOR $25,000 OR LESS WILL NOT BE CONSIDERED WHEN DETERMINING ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * ALMANERA (IRE): Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest av erage Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MR. MASON: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SWIMMINGWITHSHARKS: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. MIKE DAD: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
5	ALMANERA (IRE)	3/2	4/1
6	MR. MASON	9/2	6/1
1	SWIMMINGWITHSHARKS	8/1	7/1
7	MIKE DAD	10/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	SWIMMINGWITHSHARKS	1	8/1	Front-runner	85	80	92.6	81.8	72.3
5	ALMANERA (IRE)	5	3/2	Front-runner	91	88	90.3	83.8	77.8
2	ZIPPY BABY	2	7/2	Front-runner	87	85	0.0	0.0	0.0
7	MIKE DAD	7	10/1	Stalker	89	84	72.6	79.6	69.1
8	BORKAN	8	12/1	Stalker	76	78	63.4	72.8	61.8
4	HEAT N REHEAT	4	6/1	Stalker	95	88	62.2	75.5	66.0
6	MR. MASON	6	9/2	Trailer	91	88	77.8	82.6	76.1
3	BLAZE OF DREAMS	3	20/1	Trailer	66	68	38.4	60.1	48.1

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $7500 Class Rating: 51

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. ALLOWED 2 LBS. ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $14,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 CRYPTO MINING 2/1
# 5 DR. RICKY A. 5/1
# 3 BROKEN MACHINE 10/1

CRYPTO MINING is my choice. His 58 average has this colt with among the most competitive speed figures in this race. Will almost certainly go to the lead and may never look back. Donaldson has one of the most competitive winning percentages in this group with entries running at this distance and surface. DR. RICKY A. - First timers trained by Donaldson have proved to be successful. Excellent chance to hit the wire ahead of this group of horses given sire's 1st time starter figures who win at a 15 percent rate. BROKEN MACHINE - Will likely be one of the front-runners of the bunch going into the halfway point of the competition.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Aqueduct - Race #2 - Post: 1:18pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $36,000 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#4 RUN DEVIL (ML=6/1)
#6 SYNONYMOUS (ML=12/1)


RUN DEVIL - This mare is in fine condition, having run a strong race on December 18th, finishing third. The most recent figure of 65 is the best last race speed fig in the field. SYNONYMOUS - Samuel was aboard this mare last time out and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. Last workout was the second fastest of the day. Certainly on edge for a good one today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 BRISKY FROLIC (ML=9/5), #1 DANCING SOPHIA (ML=2/1), #2 IN TRAFFIC (ML=4/1),

BRISKY FROLIC - Had to show me much more last time around the track. Never made much of an impact. This chalk horse may be out of shape without any recent morning drills. DANCING SOPHIA - She showed not much at all in the last race. IN TRAFFIC - The victory on Dec 15th probably isn't good enough to beat these today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #4 RUN DEVIL to win. Have to have odds of at least 9/5 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Gulfstream Park - Race #5 - Post: 2:10pm - Starter Allowance - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $37,000 Class Rating: 102

Rating:

#7 BARRAGE (ML=4/1)
#11 NOT PHAR NOW (ML=6/1)
#12 REGAL SPEAKER (ML=8/1)


BARRAGE - This horse is at the top in earnings per start. He looks solid in today's event. I like that most recent outing on December 16th at Gulfstream Park where he ended up third. Came home fast in the last race at Gulfstream Park. That type of move bodes well for his chances right here in this race. NOT PHAR NOW - Speed figs on the grass point to this animal as a legit contender. Has the best in the field for this distance/surface. I like that last contest on December 22nd at Gulfstream Park where he finished fourth. Jock jumped on this gelding's back for the first ride on December 22nd. Should be in touch with the horse even better this race. Coming off a fourth place finish at Gulfstream Park, some may pass this horse. I'm not. He just missed hitting the show spot, and has respectable morning line odds today. This horse didn't run well on the soft turf in his last start at Gulfstream Park. You should overlook that showing. REGAL SPEAKER - May be extremely hard to beat this racer on the grass today. Last time out scored a nice turf number, the highest of any of these animals. Nice return on investment for this rider and trainer twosome. A definite class advantage goes to this horse. A good sign he will be very competitive in this turf race. A repeat of that last race on November 11th where he garnered a fig of 97 looks lofty enough to win in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 WAR STRATEGY (ML=7/2), #4 NANTASKET BEACH (ML=6/1),

WAR STRATEGY - This entrant hasn't been on the track since December 16th. Not even any drills. Don't believe this runner will make a winning move in today's event. That last speed figure was substandard when compared with today's class figure. NANTASKET BEACH - 6/1 is just too low of a price to take on most any horse that has run poorly in back to back races. The fig last out doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class rating of today's event. Mark this horse as a likely underlay.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #7 BARRAGE to win if we can get at least 4/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [7,11,12]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [7,11,12] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[7,11,12] with [7,11,12] with [1,3,7,11,12] with [1,3,7,11,12] Total Cost: $36
SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:	[7,11,12] with [7,11,12] with [1,7,11,12] with [1,3,4,7,11,12] with [1,3,4,7,11,12] Total Cost: $72

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Tampa Bay Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 9 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $17100 Class Rating: 81

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE DECEMBER 13 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 ENTWINE (IRE) 7/2
# 8 PACIFIC PRINCESS 3/1
# 9 COOL FRONT 8/1

I've got to go with ENTWINE (IRE). Has to be considered versus this field displaying decent figures recently and an average speed rating of 83 under similar conditions. The average class figure of 78 makes this one hard to beat. Displays the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 78 speed figure which is one of the top in this group of horses in this race. PACIFIC PRINCESS - Has performed very well lately in route races, posting a nifty 83 avg speed figure. Is a solid choice - given the 83 speed figure from her most recent race. COOL FRONT - Should definitely be given a chance here if only for the very good Equibase Speed Fig recorded in the last race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Oaklawn Park

PURCHASE

01/13/23, OP, Race 1, 12.30 CT
01/13/23,OP,1,1 1/16M [Dirt] 1:40:01 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $33,000. FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. Weight, 120 lbs. Claiming Price $30,000.
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	7	Jane Bond	4/1	Mojica O	Diodoro Robertino	SFELC	35	40.00	1.22/$1
098.9942	3	First Hill	5/2	Talamo J	Cox Brad H.	TW	35	40.00	1.22/$1
097.8576	6	Peaceful Moment	3/1	Arrieta F	McPeek Kenneth G.		203	29.06	0.84/$1
097.3127	2	Shake Rattle Nroll	7/2	Torres C A	Diodoro Robertino	J	203	29.06	0.84/$1
094.6605	1	Canary Nation	20/1	Jordan K R	Anderson Doug L.		35	40.00	1.22/$1
094.6536	8	Perfectly Golden(b+)	9/2	Juarez N	Calhoun W. Bret		16	62.50	1.53/$1
093.4534	5	Abbreviation	20/1	Baze T	Mott Riley		203	29.06	0.84/$1
093.3785	4	Nelly Too	15/1	Harr K	Cline Robert N.		20	30.00	1.02/$1

Top rated horse With "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 31.97, ROI 0.88/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -1.0058
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[Dirt MdnMClm] Last Race (Sprint Or Route) Not Same As Today

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kristpicks

aqueduct racetrack - friday, january 13, 2023 // post time - 12:50 p.m. Est

- daily selections for january 13 -

race 1: 6 - frosty invasion 3-1
1 - candlestick maker 6-5
2 - lordhearmyprayer 12-1

race 2: 4 - run devil 6-1
3 - brisky frolic 9-5
1 - dancing sophia 2-1

race 3: 8 - steady progress 12-1
5 - frosty holiday 6-1
3 - warrior richard 5-2

race 4: 4 - my first love 5-1
2 - alpine queen 3-1
1 - sa foradada 2-1

race 5: 7 - baby sox 8-5
4 - major houlihan 3-1
1 - audit committee 9-2

race 6: 2 - baked by gold 8-1 - best bet
4 - bern rosey bern 10-1
5 - shinfull 8-5

race 7: 8 - persistent danger 12-1 - longshot
4 - got the gold 7-2
6 - abundant honor 4-1

race 8: 4 - neuro 12-1
8 - king angelo 3-1
3 - midlaner 12-1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today’s Free Aqueduct Winning Horse Picks

Each day that Aqueduct runs you can come here to find free picks from our top notch horse racing handicapper Reggie Garrett

Free Aqueduct Racing Picks for Friday, January 13th, 2023:

Post Time: 12:50 ET



Race 1: 5 Tekila
Race 2: 2 In Traffic



The following 6 races are part of today’s Aqueduct Pick 6
Race 3: 6 Stormandy
Race 4: 3 Diamond Collector
Race 5: 1 Audit Committee
Race 6: 7 Preposterous
Race 7: 1 Midnight Worker
Race 8: 7 Twelth Man