Tuesday 1/17/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Mahoning Valley - Race #5

#2 Kramden	The new team gave him a shot against better when protected in starter company last time out, and he's a better fit here with straight claimers. Think his best stuff keeps him in the mix.
#8 Tip Sheet	He caught a runaway winner last time out who just rolled them, but he still ran a race that looks pretty competitive with this bunch. I like how honest he is -- tough again today.
#10 Algorix	He was up the track in the same common race as Tip Sheet last time out, but his previous form fits a lot better in here, and he might be along late for a piece.
Race Summary	Kramden has some appeal in here as what I hope is something like the third choice, and while he brings unreliable form with him, this easier spot should give him every chance to bounce back off the starter dud last out.

Mahoning Valley - Race #2

#2 Atlantic Firestorm	He's really putting things together lately, stepping up to post a sharp allowance win last out after graduating for $10,000 two starts back. He probably hits hard here if he can hold form.
#4 Graywing	Still can't get over the fact that he paid $32 last time out when handling a wildly overbet favorite, and he's a good fit right back here with another solid tactical trip waiting for him. Needs to turn the tables on the top choice.
#5 Wellman	He's a pretty honest finisher who has been in some decent spots in Kentucky over the last year, and he might like the local crew a bit better. That said, the top pair still feel a bit better.
Race Summary	Atlantic Firestorm and Graywing met last month, and Graywing flattered that race when coming right back with a score of his own. Atlantic Firestorm might offer a slightly better number here, though.

Mahoning Valley - Race #4

#6 Tonkawa Springs	He has some price appeal here for me in a spot that feels like it could be full of unreliable runners late in the lane. Lots of forward and chasing types might set things up for someone to patiently pick them up late.
#1A Star Entertainer	He almost always runs his race, but there are a lot of underneath shares on his page in which he didn't threaten the winner at all, and he might settle again at a short price today.
#7 Wicked Chance	He rallied nicely in his debut run to score here a few starts back, and he might be able to track just a bit off the pace in here and stay on for a piece.
Race Summary	Tonkawa Springs might get an okay race flow to work with in this one, as he has some ability to settle and finish, and that may serve him well if an early battle develops.

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Parx - Race #1

#2 LORD JOAN (6-1)	Arrives from Florida, had 2-1/2 months to work on slow-starting habit.
#7 MAGNOLIA ROAD (7-2)	Chased 8-to-5 winner on muddy track, beaten favorite in four straight.
#5 FANCY SCEPTER (5-2)	Hot board in 5 of 8 starts last year, takes magnified class drop.
Race Summary	LORD JOAN earned competitive speed figures for this spot despite finishing out of the money in four starts at Gulfstream Park. She enters a new barn and the winner of her race last out, Dubstep, finished second in a $12,500 claiming race recently. A better break is the key to unlocking a 2-5-7 exacta box.

Parx - Race #4

#1 TAKE IT TO THE MAX (5-2)	Finished between the favorites in 6F debut, will need clean trip from rail.
#5 SPECIAL REWARD (12-1)	Worth a look at big price off solid work tab at Penn National.
#4 DISCREETLIN JONES (9-2)	Firster by Smarty Jones is sure to take some play; dam was 0-for-7.
Race Summary	TAKE IT TO THE MAX bumped with the favorite at the start and rallied 4-wide to finish second in a solid debut. She goes an extra half-furlong for an 18-percent barn with starters off 1-2 months. Bet to win and place.

Parx - Race #6

#4 OUTWORKNFORAKISS (15-1)	Has speed, third start as gelding, worth a longshot stab in weak field.
#5 SPEIGHT’SPERCOMETE (2	Wide early from post 11, made up ground on class drop to this level.
#7 TOUGH WORKOUT (7-2)	Has speed, piles up the checks, couldn’t reach 32-1 winner last out.
Race Summary	OUTWORKNFORAKISS earned his top speed figure of the year in his first start as a gelding two starts back, then ran into trouble in a crowded field on the stretch-out in distance. In a field that lacks recent form, he could be a forward factor a long way at double-digit odds. Bet to win and place and play a 4-5 exacta box.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Sunland Park

PURCHASE

Sunland Park - Race 7	.50 Pick 3(Races 7-8-9)/$1 Exacta/$1 Trifecta/.10 Superfecta
SO $15,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $36,300 • Post: 3:04P
FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $10,000 OR LESS SINCE JANUARY 17, 2021 OR CLAIMING PRICE $15,000. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 17 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 17 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Stalker. CAYCEE'S MARK is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * FLAXY LADY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. BOSSY BABY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. DESERTROSE OFTEXAS: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. CAYCEE'S MARK: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. LINE CALL: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
7	FLAXY LADY	10/1	5/1
4	BOSSY BABY	2/1	7/1
1	DESERTROSE OFTEXAS	7/2	7/1
8	CAYCEE'S MARK	5/1	8/1
3	LINE CALL	4/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	BOSSY BABY	4	2/1	Front-runner	84	73	69.2	76.8	67.8
6	NO REGRETS N LOVE	6	12/1	Front-runner	67	64	57.2	60.2	46.7
3	LINE CALL	3	4/1	Alternator/Front-runner	84	75	76.8	54.2	43.2
8	CAYCEE'S MARK	8	5/1	Stalker	77	69	55.0	66.6	59.1
7	FLAXY LADY	7	10/1	Trailer	87	82	48.8	74.2	72.2
1	DESERTROSE OFTEXAS	1	7/2	Trailer	80	77	46.8	72.8	67.3
5	SEXY BIKINI MODEL	5	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	80	71	72.0	61.6	49.6
2	SPECIAL PRIDE	2	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	82	65	37.8	63.6	52.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mahoning Valley Race CoursePURCHASE

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race 5	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Rolling Double 50 cent Rolling Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) 50 cent Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8) 50% Carryover
Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 92 • Purse: $15,400 • Post: 2:37P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 17 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES) (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * YOUVESAIDITALL: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. KITCHI: H orse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. GAGE HAS A GRAY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. PERFETTO: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. KRAMDEN: Horse ranks in the top three in a verage Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
1	YOUVESAIDITALL	5/1	5/1
4	KITCHI	20/1	6/1
3	GAGE HAS A GRAY	20/1	7/1
7	PERFETTO	7/2	8/1
2	KRAMDEN	6/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	KITCHI	4	20/1	Front-runner	94	86	83.6	69.6	57.6
3	GAGE HAS A GRAY	3	20/1	Front-runner	86	80	79.4	71.6	64.1
2	KRAMDEN	2	6/1	Stalker	87	82	64.4	73.4	61.4
11	BLAME IT ON EDDIE	11	9/2	Stalker	85	78	54.4	62.6	47.1
9	LUCKY JUNIOR	9	12/1	Stalker	85	74	51.8	73.8	62.8
10	ALGORIX	10	15/1	Stalker	84	82	43.0	70.6	54.1
7	PERFETTO	7	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	87	81	70.8	77.8	69.3
1	YOUVESAIDITALL	1	5/1	Trailer	92	82	57.6	80.4	78.4
8	TIP SHEET	8	4/1	Trailer	86	77	37.8	74.0	64.0
6	IMTHEPRINCE	6	15/1	Trailer	81	74	18.0	63.4	45.9
5	PONT DU GARD	5	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	81	77	65.6	72.6	54.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $19500 Class Rating: 66

FOR REGISTERED OHIO BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 17 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 IMA BELIEVER 10/1
# 9 NEBULOSA 5/2
# 8 VICTORY DIVISION 6/1

IMA BELIEVER is my choice especially at 10/1. Looks very strong for the conditions of this outing today, showing solid numbers in dirt sprint races lately. He has to be given a shot given the competitive speed figures. NEBULOSA - Trainer has very solid win rate (21 percent) at this distance and surface. Johnson has him trained solidly to break sharply out of the gate. VICTORY DIVISION - It's a good signal that Gorham is using Barbaran on this horse. Should be considered for this event if only for the competitive Equibase Speed Fig posted in the last contest.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Turf Paradise - Race #3 - Post: 1:25pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,400 Class Rating: 57

Rating:

#5 FLY ROBYN FLY (ML=3/1)


FLY ROBYN FLY - Believe in this horse. No other viable early speed gives this animal a strong chance at the winner's circle. The jockey and handler combination have a beneficial return on investment when they partner up. Earnings per start is something that I think can be a very key factor. This horse is ranked number 1 in this field. Filly will add blinkers to the equipment package today. That often leads to an improved performance. Toye moves this filly to the main track today. Look for a solid chance of improvement from the most recent race on the turf.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 REAL GOOD VYBZ (ML=4/1), #3 LITTLE LILY LU (ML=9/2), #4 WITCHES DANCE (ML=5/1),

REAL GOOD VYBZ - Today's race is 5 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a sprint affair in the last sixty days. Not the best of omens. LITTLE LILY LU - Not easy to support any mount in a short distance affair if she hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last couple months. The seventh place result in the last event was not the greatest. Recent decreasing Equibase speed figures of 49/45/26 give a sign that this animal may be going off form. WITCHES DANCE - This horse hasn't shown too much in the last two affairs.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - FLY ROBYN FLY - Has been racing regularly since a layoff. According to my data, horses hit their peak cycle in their 3rd or 4th race back. Watch out for this horse in this event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#5 FLY ROBYN FLY is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	5 with 3
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race #1 - Post: 11:55am - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $24,000 Class Rating: 63

Rating:

#7 MAGNOLIA ROAD (ML=7/2)


MAGNOLIA ROAD - This jockey and handler have a beneficial ROI when they team up. According to well-known handicapping authorities, the stalking-type of magnificent animal is one of the most dependable bets in racing. With 'blinkers-on' this filly should be very competitive.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 FANCY SCEPTER (ML=5/2), #6 BUNNY BONUS (ML=6/1), #2 LORD JOAN (ML=6/1),

FANCY SCEPTER - Hard to invest in at 5/2 odds after the last two efforts. LORD JOAN - Improbable that the speed figure she registered on October 29th will hold up in this race.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - MAGNOLIA ROAD - Class fig today of 63. Taking a drastic drop in the level of competition and should wake up against an easier spot. Worth a wager.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #7 MAGNOLIA ROAD to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	7 with 6
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $9900 Class Rating: 75

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 HUGHIE'S HOLIDAY 7/2
# 4 TRULY A MESS 3/1
# 1 YOUONLYLIVETWICE 9/2

HUGHIE'S HOLIDAY looks to be a very good contender. She has to be considered given the solid speed figures. Has been running very well in races of this distance, going 1 out of 2 under similar conditions. Will probably go to the front end and should never look back. TRULY A MESS - Could provide positive profits based on very strong recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 60. Hard to pass on this filly with Negron in the saddle. YOUONLYLIVETWICE - Is a solid contender - given the 56 speed figure from her most recent race. Has garnered reliable speed figures in dirt sprint races in the past.

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Handicapper Sonny LaFouchi(aka The LEGEND)!

Free Winners for Tuesday, January 17th 2023 from THE LEGEND!
FREE HORSE PICKS
SUNLAND PARK
RACE #7
TIME: 5:04 PM EST
PICK: BET #3 Line Call 4/1 odds to win @ Bovada

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1. NSA(The Legend) NBA – Clippers +1
2. Gameday Network NBA – Spurs +5.5
3. Sports Action 365 NBA – Bucks -4.5
4. Vegas Line Crushers NBA – Trailblazers under 238
5. VegasSI NBA – Nuggets -7
6. Sam Casey CBB – North Carolina -14
7. Henry Brown Sports CBB – Notre Dame -4
8. Winning Big Sports CBB – Va Commonwealth -9.5
9. Lou Panelli CBB – Toledo -9
10. Platinum Info Club CBB – Creighton -7
11. William E. Stockton NBA – Trailblazers +7
12. Vincent Pioli NBA – Bucks -4.5
13. Steve “Scoop” Kendall NBA – Nuggets -7
14. SCORE NBA – Clippers +1
15. Tony Campone NBA – Spurs over 232.5
16. Chicago Sports Group CBB – Kentucky -11
17. Hollywood Sportsline CBB – Baylor +2.5
18. VIP Action CBB – Wyoming over 132
19. South Beach Sports CBB – Alabama -8.5
20. LV Sports Commission CBB – Creighton -7
21. NY Players Club NBA – Nuggets -7
22. Fred Callahan NBA – Bucks -4.5
23. LV Private CEO Club NBA – Clippers +1
24. Michigan Sports NBA – Spurs +5.5
25. National Consensus Report NBA – Bucks over 224

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Steve Janus

Jan 17 '23, 6:30 PM in 1h
NCAA-B | Ole Miss vs South Carolina

Play on: Ole Miss -5 -110 at circa

1* Free Sharp Play on Ole Miss

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Stephen Nover

Jan 17 '23, 7:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-B | Massachusetts vs VCU

Play on: [B]Massachusetts +10

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Jeff Alexander

Jan 17 '23, 7:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-B | Houston vs Tulane

Play on: Tulane +11 -110 at William Hill

1* NCAAB - Houston/Tulane FREE Pick on Tulane +11
Tuesday's Free NCAAB Pick is on the Tulane Green Wave as a 11-point home dog against the Cincinnati Bearcats. The Cougars are without a doubt one of the best teams in the country, but they are a team I'll be looking to fade now they we are firmly into conference play. I certainly feel the line here has been inflated to where there's simply too much value on Tulane to pass up. The Green Wave are playing some of their best basketball of the season coming into this matchup. Tulane has won 5 straight with impressive home wins over Memphis (96-89) and UCF (77-69). This game is everything to the Green Wave and just another stop on the schedule for the Cougars, who really don't have a game to look forward to until they go to Memphis on Feb. 19th. Give me Tulane +11!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sean Murphy

Jan 17 '23, 7:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-B | Kansas vs Kansas State

Play on: [B]UNDER 147