Saturday 1/21/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Saturday, January 21, 2023

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January 21, 2023
“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Percolate
Backups/savers: 5-Foothill

Forecast: Percolate has developed into a consistent turf miler with rising speed figures, and after a clever win vs. first-level allowance foes at Del Mar in November the Michael McCarthy-trained colt returns to the $50,000 starter’s allowance level with the likelihood of a repeat score. The Irish-bred colt has good tactical speed and projects to enjoy an ideal second flight trip with every chance to take control when the pressure is turned on. Foothill launches a comeback for trainer Doug O’Neill and looks like a live item following a smart series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs that should have him fit and ready. The son of Vronsky has numbers that fit and could easily be a better type this time around. We suggest you include him somewhere on your ticket, at least as a backup.

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RACE 2: Post: 12:29 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Goldenspa; 4-Stop and a Tres
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: 3-Goldenspa offers no wagering value at or near his morning line of 6/5 but seems the logical top pick after being pitched too high in a straight maiden grass sprint at Del Mar in mid-November. The son of Goldencents finished a solid second at this level over this track and distance two runs back and a repeat of that effort probably should be good enough to handle this modest maiden $40,000 field. Stop and a Tres shows steadily rising speed figures, and with another forward move he should be the one to fear most. The work tab is healthy, so we’re expecting the Into Mischief gelding to be within striking range throughout and make his presence felt through the lane.

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RACE 3: Post: 12:59 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Our Shining Light
Backups/savers: 6-Who’s Candy; 3-New York Dreams

Forecast: Our Shining Light ran extremely well sprinting over the local lawn in his U.S. debut last fall when a willing runner-up in a better-than-average race for the level and then ventured north to graduate with authority in straight maiden company two-turning over the all-weather surface. The Jonathan Wong-trained gelding returns to Arcadia for this starter optional claimer while returning to grass and shortening to an abbreviated sprint and seems quite capable of scoring again following a bullet workout up north and the switch to Frankie. At 4-1 on the morning line, he offers solid value in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics. Also worth including on your ticket – at least in a backup role – are Who’s Candy and New York Dreams. The former, second in his last pair, is fast on figures and will be quite competitive with a repeat of his sharp runner-up try here last fall, while the latter graduated with conviction against a softer group on the front end over the local lawn in November and may offer some price value at 8-1 on the morning line.

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RACE 4: Post: 1:29 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Rosy Edge; 6-Alex’s Girl
Backups/Savers: none

Forecast: Bottom rung maiden claiming older fillies and mares compete in this six furlong main track sprint that boils down to two main contenders. Rosy Edge earned much better than par speed figures when finishing third and then fourth, respectively, in two tougher maiden claimers last summer and returns in a very soft spot for a barn that has solid stats with layoff runners. If she’s ad good now and she was then, the daughter of First Samurai should handle this assignment, and at anywhere near her morning line of 4-1 will offer attractive wagering value. Alex’s Girl, a respectable third in her only outing last April in a maiden $50,000 affair, lands top rider Juan Hernandez and shows a nice six furlong breeze in 1:13 flat last month to have her fit and ready. She could very well be a better type off the bench. We’ll give ‘Edge top billing but both should be included in rolling exotic play.

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RACE 5: Post: 1:59 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Smileforme
Backups/savers: 1-King of Speed

Forecast: 3-Smileforme looked good winning in a slightly softer spot at Golden Gate Fields last month and if he can duplicate that all-weather performance over the local dirt strip the veteran Smiling Tiger gelding can score right back. In the frame in five of six career starts over the Santa Anita main track, the Jonathan Wong-trained six-year-old picks up Frankie and seems fairly solid in a low level claiming affair. King of Speed is worth tossing in for protection. The son of Jimmy Creed drops to a realistic spot and is competitive on speed figures. He’s not particularly quick leaving the gate but if he can avoid trouble from the rail he should be the one to fear most.

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RACE 6: Post: 2:29 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Roy C
Backups/savers: 5-The Key Is Unity; 4-Lottery Pick

Forecast: Roy C has been away since October of 2021 but his work tab at San Luis Rey Downs is healthy and may have him prepared for a winning performance in this moderate maiden $50,000 turf miler for older horses. The Peter Miller-trained gelding ran quite well over this course and distance as a 2-year-old when second (well clear of the rest) while earning a speed figure good enough to beat this field. The presence of leading rider Juan Hernandez is an obvious plus, as is the good inside draw that should guarantee an ideal ground-saving, pace-stalking trip. The Key Is Unity lacks tactical speed but has a grinding, late-running style that should eventually produce a winning performance at this level. He’s finished second in his last three starts under similar conditions so maybe today will be his day. Lottery Pick shows up in a seller for the first time and will greatly appreciate the softer competition. Freshened since November and training well for his return, the Peter Eurton-trained gelding is reunited with Flavian Prat and won’t have to improve much at all to be a serious late threat.

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RACE 7: Post: 2:59 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Big Swede
Backups/savers: 10-Nolo Contesto

Forecast: Big Swede is racing in good from, lands the favorable rail, retains top jockey Juan Hernandez, and projects to enjoy an ideal pace setting/prompting trip in race that promises to have soft to moderate early fractions. He finished a good second with a career top speed figure at this level last month and nothing more should be needed to handle this task. Nolo Contesto stretches out again but had the misfortunate of drawing the extreme outside post. Winless in almost four years, he’s certainly lacks punch when put to pressure but he’s a fit on numbers, so you may want to toss him in somewhere as a saver.
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RACE 8: Post: 3:29 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Australia Mia
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Australia Misa was a decent stayer in South America in group stakes company, though the quality of her competition must be considered suspect. She makes her U.S. debut off a six month layoff with series of steady drills that should have her fit enough, and in a field that otherwise seems well below par for the level let’s take a stand and go with the fresh face. The daughter of Street Sense reportedly has good tactical speed, and in a race that promises to be slowly run early she may be able land a spot galloping along while reasonably close to the front end. We have to think she’s a live item with Frankie taking the call, so at 5/2 on the morning line we’ll make this nine-time winning Chilean-bred mare a win play and rolling exotic single

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RACE 9: Post: 3:50 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Army Star ; 1-Mister Beams
Backups/savers: 8-Crowning Gold

Forecast: Army Star has steadily rising speed figures and gets a break in the weights with the switch to promising bug boy Aguilar, so there is every reason to expect that the sophomore son of Army Mule can continue his improving pattern and register his third straight win in this starter optional claiming sprint. The San Luis Rey Downs-based 3-year-old employs an effective pace-pressing style and projects to be within range through and have every chance. Mister Beams must leave cleanly from the rail but if he does for new trainer Tim Yakteen he should be part of the pace and be a strong factor throughout. He gets Lasix and removes blinkers after finishing third as the favorite behind our top pick last month at Del Mar. Crowning Gold is another first-time Lasix user with room to improve. He’s a tad shy in the numbers department but projects to get at least a piece of it.

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RACE 10: Post: 4:29 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Conclude
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: The known element looks ordinary, so let’s take a stand and single the promising newcomer Conclude in this wide open straight maiden turf sprint for 3-year-olds. As a son of Collected (City Zip), the Phil D’Amato-trained colt has every right to enjoy grass, and his main track workouts indicate he has at least a decent amount of speed and perhaps even more than that. With Flavian Prat taking the call (25% with this jockey/trainer combo), this good looking chestnut offers enticing value at or near his morning line of 5-1.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Woodbine Mohawk Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

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January 21, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
Woodbine Mohawk Park has a 12-race card scheduled for this evening. The feature goes in Race 9, a Preferred Pace with a $34,000 purse. The 0.20 Late Pick 4 also starts in Race 9, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9

3-Saulsbrook Victor (2-1)-Winner of 3 straight at this class, and 4 in a row in total shouldn't be overlooked tonight. Won't get on the point and dawdle to a .58 first half again but has shown the ability to win in different ways.
6-Wheels On Fire (5/2)-Proven winner at this class needed last after being off more than a month. This 8-year-old has won 28 of 87 at Mohawk and regular pilot Doug McNair should have in striking range turning for the wire.

Race 10

1-I Ama Rocket (3-1)-Comes off a win, and in 3 starts since joining the Jodie Cullen barn hasn't missed the board. Travis Cullen will need to work a sharp steer and follow live cover. Set a new mark in last and may have more to give.
7-Beachin Lindy (5/2)-This 8-year-old has been red hot winning 4 straight, the last 3 coming in this series. Has been a dominant winner versus this kind and can cash the biggest check with the same type of effort.

Race 11

1-William Hanover (4-1)-Started slowly and the .59 first half sealed his fate despite going the back half in 55.3. McClure takes the lines, and he can work an efficient trip for an improved effort.
8-Jordan Deo (7/2)-This will be the 3rd straight start with McNair in the bike and will look for an aggressive steer in a race without a standout. Has the gate speed to get a close-up seat to stay close and then roll by down the lane.

Race 12

1-Commanding Officer (3-1)-Drops to a soft spot, gets a positive driver change and draws inside. Has hit the board in 21 of 38 at Wbsb with 9 pictures. Should be a player but has been off since 12-30 and hasn't been in sharp form in the previous 5 starts.
5-Roll With The Flow (5-1)-Has 2 wins and a 2nd place finish in the last 3 races which were at London against Preferred company. Has taken top honors once in 6 Mohawk starts and McNair will do the steering. The McIntosh barn has posted 23% winners in the last 30 days and should offer a square price.
10-Twin B Powerball (4-1)-This is one of 2 entries from the Moreau barn (4/10) and this 5-year-old takes a significant drop in class. Loses Filion to #1, Jones will be in the bike and that should help the price. Has the gate speed to get a decent seat and could be overlooked at the windows.

0.20 Late Pick 4

3,6/1,7/1,8/1,5,10
Total Bet=$4.80

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Laurel Park Pick 4 Analysis Saturday, Jan. 21

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January 21, 2023 | By Frank Carulli
Laurel Park’s nine-race card this Saturday features six consecutive stakes races of at least $75,000. Four of the stakes comprise a 50-cent Pick 4 wager that shapes up this way:

LRL 4th race (1:54 EST) -- Little separates OURNATIONONPARADE and AIN’T DA BEER COLD after their recent matchup in the Robert Manfuso Stakes at 1-1/16 miles. OURNATIONONPARADE had no breathers, maintaining rail position and dueling throughout before he tired late. He’s versatile enough to change tactics with more pace presence in this one-turn, one-mile test. AIN’T DA BEER COLD pressed the moderate pace 3-wide, forged a short lead when asked for run mid-turn and ran second to the trip-sitting winner. But also use price plays ONE TEN and GALERIO in the leadoff leg. ONE TEN hung late at 7F when second to Alwaysinahurry (6-20, $347k) two back, but he has the right running style in this field and his price will go up after a troubled allowance run as the beaten favorite. GALERIO, first or second in 26 of 36 starts, took money in his seasonal debut off a nine-month layoff but flattened out after an early move.

LRL 5th race (2:25 EST) -- INTREPID DREAM was scratched from the Carousel Stakes won by her stablemate, MALIBU BEAUTY, setting up an intriguing matchup between the Gary Capuano-trained mares in the $75,000 Geisha Stakes. INTREPID DREAM has raced only five times in her career, but the 5-year-old is one troubled trip from perfection, winning her last three route races by a combined 14-1/4 lengths. MALIBU BEAUTY boasts three wire-to-wire stakes victories in her last seven starts, most recently in the 1-1/8-mile Carousel when she set faster middle fractions than a same-day, 1-1/16-mile stakes for the boys and won by 7-3/4 lengths.

LRL 6th race (2:56 EST) -- BEREN delivers time and time again, at any track and at any sprint distance in stakes company. He rushed up after breaking a step slow last out, backed off a fast pace set by FACTOR IT IN and determinedly chased the winner as the top pair separated from the field. FIVE DREAMS earned his top speed figure but got caught by stakes repeater Repo Rocks last out. But his last four races produced five next-out winners (average 89 Beyer) and he has shown a stalking gear that could come in handy today.

LRL 7th race (3:27 EST) – DISCO EBO stumbled, out-dueled the favorite and was ‘displaced from the front’ in upper stretch before Betsy Blue (9-20, $604k) passed by to win the Garland of Roses Stakes at Aqueduct. FILLE D’ESPRIT was well-beaten as the favorite against several of the same rivals in her stakes three-peat attempt, but she should sit an ideal trip at an inflated price for a sharp outfit. SWAYIN TO AND FRO dueled and won at 6F, 6-1/2F and 7F in her last four stakes sprints.

Suggested 50-cent Ticket

LRL 4th Race: 1, 4, 5, 8
LRL 5th Race: 1, 6
LRL 6th Race: 2, 5, 9
LRL 7th Race: 3, 4, 6

COST: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

KRISTPICKS

Aqueduct racetrack - saturday, january 21, 2023 // post time - 12:20 p.m. Est

- daily selections for january 21 -

race 1:
5 - patrick the great 5-2
3 - trevor bardette 3-1
2 - escape mission 4-1

race 2:
2 - phoebe's frosty 2-1
5 - giramonte 7-2
4 - b c glory days 7-2

race 3:
7 - central love 5-2
5 - mama's gold 7-5
8 - west star 8-1

race 4:
5 - america's pride 3-1
1 - afleet arlene 7-5
6 - sheza rajun cajun 10-1

race 5:
8 - optic way 5-2 - best bet
2 - grumps little tots 6-1
5 - dark storm 4-1

race 6:
8 - cash now 12-1 - longshot
3 - lost in rome 6-1
2 - o'trouble 9-5

race 7:
3 - chowda 20-1
5 - big engine 5-1
7 - excellent timing 9-5

race 8:
5 - betsy blue 3-5
1 - self isolation 6-1
2 - miss t too 5-1

race 9:
6 - wednesdaynight lad 20-1
9 - fast boat to skye 12-1
5 - wave action 20-1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Fair Grounds - Race #12

#1 Norah G	Glad they're giving her a chance with this kind, even if it's a pretty deep spot for a Louisiana-bred runner to make a two-turn debut. That said, she's got quite a bit of talent and might work out a good trip from the inside if she can break well -- an issue for her in the past.
#5 Chop Chop	Her best stuff so far makes her the one to beat, and I think she's going to like it here with a long stretch to work with. Grade I dropper makes obvious sense.
#7 Forest Chimes	No clue what to do with her after she rolled like a good thing in her debut for a team that doesn't typically have them ready to fire like that. Wouldn't be any kind of surprise with her natural talent.
Race Summary	Norah G should offer a decent price off a slow stakes win against Louisiana breds, but I think she might be good enough to hang with open company in a spot like this. Worth a shot. Also can't wait to see what Forest Chimes is made of here.

Fair Grounds - Race #13

#9 Mr. Wireless	He draws wide again here, but he made a sharp move around the turn in that last one before getting run down late, and I think he might make amends here at a semi-attractive price.
#8 Zozos	His only dull race came in the Kentucky Derby, and his comeback run was pretty solid. Think he's the one to beat in here with a bit of upside today.
#5 Happy American	Late runner rallied to score last out over the top choice, but I am a little concerned about the fact that that was a big career best for him and maybe he won't run back to it. Other possibility is that he's just getting really good right now.
Race Summary	Mr. Wireless gets the edge in a fun race where #2 Run Classic has some appeal, too, and fans of #3 Intrepid Heart will hope he can bounce back off the rare clunker last out. Fun one to watch.

Fair Grounds - Race #14

#7 Instant Coffee	He's the likely chalk in here, but he looks tough with a trio of tough tries under his belt. Think the pace might be fair enough to help him get home from off the splits.
#8 Two Phil's	No clue what to make of Rivelli shipping one down here like this, but I think he'll get a good trip spying the speed from this high draw, and he fits as well as most in here.
#5 Tapit's Conquest	He moved up in that first try around two turns, and it wouldn't be any kind of surprise to see him take another step forward in this third career start.
Race Summary	Instant Coffee should get a decent enough race shape to rally in this one, and his only loss came behind the Breeders' Cup Juvenile champ. Tempted to single and hope he's just the best among these right now.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Golden Gate - Race #5

#7 SHANGHAI MIST (3-1)	Made last-to-first move and remains eligible for the same race.
#1 TROPICANA GIRL (9-5)	Led at stretch call in 6 of last 8 starts, re-tries distance off Wong re-claim.
#2 CAN’THELPFALLIN (6-1)	Beaten fave against better, good fit at this level last spring.
Race Summary	SHANGHAI MIST changed tactics, rallied 5-wide into a slow pace and won going away at this distance. She fits the race conditions well and is taken to repeat. Bet to win and place.

Golden Gate - Race #7

#8 TELOS (9-2)	Met good ones at Del Mar, all-or-nothing as first-time gelding.
#1 BLUEGRASS RYDER (6-1)	Tries to carry-over decent turf form to the all-weather track.
#6 DE LA LUNA (8-5)	Ran to heavy backing when dropped in for a tag, couldn’t reach pace controller.
Race Summary	TELOS runs first time as a gelding after he wilted under demanding MSW fractions two starts back at Del Mar, then was outrun against a pair of promising Bob Baffert-trained runners. Reincarnate won the G-III Sham Stakes and Mr. Fisk won in MSW company in his next start. Play an 8-ALL exacta.

Golden Gate - Race #9

#3 STANDFORGRIT (8-1)	Improved try with Lasix, worth a price stab in pace-less race.
#2 GET MY POINT (5-2)	Rallied for minor awards in last pair, will be underlay.
#10 WHEREDIDITGO (10-1)	Debuts for O’Neill off long series of works; dam was unraced.
Race Summary	STANDFORGRIT chased the runner-up through solid fractions, came under a hard drive on the turn but remained a presence until mid-stretch. She can use her speed well in this spot after an improved try with Lasix. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Aqueduct

PURCHASE

Aqueduct - Race 8	Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 8 &9
Stakes • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 108 • Purse: $100,000 • Post: 3:47P
INTERBOROUGH S. - FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. NON-LASIX RACE PURSUANT TO 4043.2 (7)(E)(5) LASIX NOT PERMITTED WITHIN 48 HOURS OF POST TIME. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $100 EACH WHICH SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATIONS; $500 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX AND AN ADDITIONAL $500 TO START. FOR HORSES NOT ORIGINALLY NOMINATED, A SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATION PAYMENT OF $500 IN ADDITION TO THE ENTRY AND STARTING FEES CAN BE MADE AT ANY TIME PRIOR TO THE CLOSING OF ENTRIES. THE PURSE TO BE DIVIDED 55% TO THE OWNER OF THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 12% TO THIRD, 6% TO FOURTH, 4% TO FIFTH AND 3% DIVIDED EQUALLY AMONGST THE REMAINING FINISHERS. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A GRADED SWEEPSTAKE IN 2022-23 ALLOWED 2 LBS.; OF A SWEEPSTAKE SINCE MAY 1, 2022 ALLOWED 4 LBS.; OF TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE-BRED ALLOWANCE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 6 LBS. A TROPHY WILL BE PRESENTED TO THE WINNING OWNER. CLOSED SATURDAY, JANUARY 7, 2023 WITH 16 NOMINATIONS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Trailer. BETSY BLUE is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BETSY BLUE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. PIECE OF MY HE ART: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. EASY TO BLESS: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has the hi ghest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
5	BETSY BLUE	3/5	3/1
3	PIECE OF MY HEART	4/1	5/1
6	EASY TO BLESS	20/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	MISS T TOO	2	5/1	Front-runner	97	89	79.5	87.2	78.2
1	SELF ISOLATION	1	6/1	Front-runner	99	94	77.3	76.3	68.8
4	FLIGHT TO SHANGHAI	4	10/1	Front-runner	98	97	58.8	73.0	62.5
6	EASY TO BLESS	6	20/1	Stalker	107	97	72.0	85.8	79.3
3	PIECE OF MY HEART	3	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	103	103	61.8	98.6	93.6
5	BETSY BLUE	5	3/5	Trailer	105	104	68.2	104.4	101.9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for CamareroPURCHASE

Camarero - Race 7	Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta
Claiming $4,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 103 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 5:30P
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 30 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 15 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE JUNE 15 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. LETS PLAY HARDBALL is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SIDARTH: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LETS PLAY HARDBALL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. UNCLE DREW: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest averag e Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. STRIKE LIGHTNING: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
2	SIDARTH	5/2	9/2
5	LETS PLAY HARDBALL	10/1	5/1
8	UNCLE DREW	3/1	9/1
4	STRIKE LIGHTNING	9/5	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	LETS PLAY HARDBALL	5	10/1	Front-runner	98	95	70.0	82.6	71.1
6	COULD BE	6	9/2	Stalker	97	83	78.5	78.0	68.0
1	BOO REID	1	7/2	Stalker	93	87	72.2	81.8	70.8
8	UNCLE DREW	8	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	96	89	64.2	87.4	78.4
2	SIDARTH	2	5/2	Trailer	102	103	53.2	95.6	90.6
4	STRIKE LIGHTNING	4	9/5	Trailer	101	88	42.0	84.0	75.0
3	GREELEYS CHARM	3	5/1	Trailer	99	84	41.0	84.2	71.2
9	ECRU	9	2/1	Trailer	103	88	40.6	76.9	73.9
7	GOING STRONG	7	4/1	Trailer	86	84	17.6	75.6	60.1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Santa Anita - Race #5 - Post: 1:59pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $26,000 Class Rating: 91

Rating:

#8 MIDNIGHT SPECIAL (ML=8/1)
#3 SMILEFORME (ML=7/2)
#7 TIZLIGHTNING (ML=4/1)
#6 EL DIABLO ROJO (ML=5/1)


MIDNIGHT SPECIAL - Taking a trip to a lower level; has the form to make his presence felt. 70-85-87 are last three speed ratings. Improving each time out is something he should do again in this race. Personally, I wouldn't worry about where he finished in his last race (eighth). Should improve in today's race, with some respectable odds. SMILEFORME - The 94 most recent race speed rating looks mighty good on paper. TIZLIGHTNING - Ranks highest in earnings per start. A strong effort right here in this race will boost the lifetime total. EL DIABLO ROJO - Curatolo and Pineda perform well when they work together. It's hard to beat a +132 return on investment for a rider and conditioner.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 KING OF SPEED (ML=4/1), #10 BOX OF CHOCOLATES (ML=5/1),

KING OF SPEED - He's likely going to get baked on the top end. This gelding hasn't had any positive outcomes in short distance races in the last two months. BOX OF CHOCOLATES - Not likely for this one to make an impact with no success lately in a short distance affair.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #8 MIDNIGHT SPECIAL to win if we can get at least 5/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,8] Box [6,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:	[3,8] with [3,6,7,8] with [3,6,7,8] with [1,3,6,7,8,11] with [1,3,6,7,8,11] Total Cost: $72

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Tampa Bay Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 85

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE DECEMBER 21 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 WAR CROSS 4/1
# 2 MAPACHE G 9/5
# 1 SHIMMERING LIGHT 2/1

I've got to go with WAR CROSS. Had one of the strongest Equibase Speed Figures of this field in his last outing. The average Equibase class figure alone makes this horse a solid choice. Formidable pick to take this race going in a dirt route. MAPACHE G - He should be considered given the competitive speed numbers. Reason to like this gelding as he has in the irons one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last month. SHIMMERING LIGHT - Had one of the most favorable Speed Figures of this group in his last contest. He has been running admirably and the speed figures are among the best in this field.

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Turfway Park - Race #3 - Post: 6:55pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $30,000 Class Rating: 80

Rating:

#11 HE GOTS TO GO (ML=9/2)
#6 SPEED WARNING (ML=5/2)
#5 NET WORTH (ML=7/2)


HE GOTS TO GO - Nice return on investment for this jock and trainer duo. Jock hops right back aboard after getting to know the horse by riding in the last race. That's always a positive sign. This colt surprised everybody by running second Dec 22nd. Gets help from Waltz with the addition of Lasix. This colt is in fine form. Ran second on Dec 22nd. This animal picks up a lot of cash per race around the track. Number one in this race. SPEED WARNING - Rodriguez and Stidham teamed up together are a railbird's friend. This colt gets a weight break of -5 lbs from last race. Certainly could make the difference right here in this race. Stidham will try adding the 'shades' today in hopes of an improved performance. NET WORTH - This trainer (Cox) has a terrific win pct with first time starters. A great handicapping angle is 1st time Lasix. Cox gives it to this one for this contest.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 BLANTON (ML=8/1), #3 GOD OF WINE (ML=8/1),

BLANTON - Usually I need a sprinter to have some success lately in short distance contests in order to bet on him. GOD OF WINE - Not normally the kind of horse one plays off of any type of very long layoff. The form factor is somewhat in question after the addition of bandages in the October 3rd affair. Betting a turf horse first time on the dirt is a tough play.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #11 HE GOTS TO GO to win if we can get at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [5,6,11] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[5,6,11] with [5,6,11] with [1,3,5,6,11] with [1,3,5,6,11] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Fair Grounds

PURCHASE

01/21/23, FG, Race 10, 4.30 CT
01/21/23,FG,10,1 1/16M [Dirt] 1:42:00 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $65,000 (includes up to $4,000 Other Sources) (plus up to $4,000 ALBSS-Accredited LA Bred Slot Supplement). FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. Weight, 120 lbs. (Preference To Horses That Have Not Started For Less Than $50,000 In Their Last 3 Starts).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	2	Onasa	5/1	Loveberry J	Rivelli Larry	JTWL	102	37.25	1.40/$1
097.3990	8	Mobster	3/1	Saez L	Casse Mark E.	FE	102	37.25	1.40/$1
096.6807	3	Presider	6/1	Castellano J	DeVaux Cherie	S	102	37.25	1.40/$1
095.1441	1A	Silver Bull	9/2	Hernandez. Jr. B J	Foley Gregory D.		102	37.25	1.40/$1
094.6198	7	Single Ruler(b+)	8/1	Riquelme J	Desormeaux J. Keith		102	37.25	1.40/$1
094.0902	6	Kauai Dan	6/1	Gaffalione T	Asmussen Steven M.		102	37.25	1.40/$1
093.9705	1	Fight'n Ready	9/2	Morales E	Stewart Dallas		102	37.25	1.40/$1
093.5817	4	Baseline Beater	8/1	Lanerie C J	Pessin Neil L.		102	37.25	1.40/$1
092.8905	5	Briartown	12/1	Gutierrez R	Calhoun W. Bret		102	37.25	1.40/$1
092.4542	9	Two Rivers Over(b-)	10/1	Parker D L	Calhoun W. Bret	C	102	37.25	1.40/$1

Top rated horse With "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 29.49, ROI 0.88/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -2.6010
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[Dirt MdnMClm] Horse Age 3