2-24-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-24-09

Play on Miami at 7:35 ET. The Detroit Pistons are atrocious. We've noted several times when playing against them that this has essentially been a .500 team since the Iverson trade, but now that's not even the case. They have lost six straight games coming into tonight and have not covered the spread once during the skid. It gets worse. They are on an eight-game ATS losing streak against teams with winning records. They are just 3-15 ATS off their last 18 losses and were absolutely crushed in Cleveland Sunday night. Still they continue to draw too much respect from the oddsmakers against a Miami team that got bigger by dealing Shawn Marion for Jermaine O'Neal and Jamario Moon. They too come off an ugly loss to a division leader, but at least you can say Dwyane Wade is playing well having scored 50 in that last game. No one on Detroit is playing well and HC Michael Curry should be fired. Miami is our NBA Oddsmaker Mismatch.

Good luck, Lenny

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-24-09

alatex 15* BC-2.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-24-09

Malinsky
REASON FOR PICK: 6* #732 L.S.U. -4 over FLORIDA

L.S.U. is better than Florida, and in some of the key areas of tonight’s matchup much better. This also has a chance to be one of the stronger crowds of any college game this season, with the ESPN cameras showing up in timely fashion on Fat Tuesday. It all means that the home team should be the substantial favorite, but that is not the case at all, and it means time to step up.

L.S.U. is 11-1 in the SEC, and Florida 8-4. Yet the gap may be wider than that. In conference play L.S.U. is allowing 39.2 percent shooting, including 29.3 from beyond the arc, with a league-leading +7.3 rebounding advantage, and 81 blocked shots. Florida? How about 46.0, 35.1, a -2.8 and 35 in those same categories. It is a monster of a gap in terms of defense and rebounding, the elements that respond best to crowds like the one that will be in Baton Rouge tonight, and even in more sedate settings the Tigers have gone 6-0 in home SEC play, with none of the results closer than seven points.

If it sounds like “Men against Boys” around the basket, with the Tigers bigger, tougher and more experienced, that may be just what it is. Trent Johnson inherited an outstanding opportunity with this particular team, one that sports three senior starters, and has five seniors in the top seven in the rotation. Contrast that to a Florida team starting three sophomores, and you see the potential for dominance in the physical aspect of the game, and that would be nothing new – players that accounted for 162 of the 200 L.S.U. floor minutes, and 169 of 200 for Florida, are back from the resounding 85-73 win that the Tigers got in Gainesville LY. And in terms of confidence and swagger, Tasmin Mitchell, Garrett Temple, Terry Martin and Chris Johnson combined for 106 minutes on this court two years ago in an easy 66-56 win over a Gator team that was on their way to the National Championship.

Here is what we see – Mitchell, Johnson and Quintin Thornton dominating down low against a soft Florida front-court; Temple being the ideal defensive counter to thwart Nick Calathes, which bogs down the Florida offense; and for a now-healthy Bo Spencer to have few difficulties with the Gator presses; if anything expect L.S.U. to attack the basket for easy opportunities against those presses. And with the Tigers knocking down 73.2 percent of their free throw attempts in league play, they bring the right end-game aspects as well.


REASON FOR PICK: 4* #714 SAN ANTONIO/DALLAS Under 190

We have been most fortunate that the recent Dallas schedule has laid out the way that it has, giving us now our third opportunity to cash an Under ticket as the Mavericks adapt to life without Jason Terry. We were able to get the money when the Celtics held them to 92 points at home, and the Rockets stifled them to only 86 in their only road game without Terry, yet the value remains outstanding, largely because of the other games in that span, a pair of routs over hapless Sacramento when they scored 118 and 116 points, and a 113 vs. New Jersey. Those explosions, of course, mean next-to-nothing, and what makes this better is that we have a similar situation developing with the Spurs.

In the three games since the All Star break without Manu Ginobli we have seen how Gregg Popovich wants to handle the tempo – they played to an Under in regulation all three times, by a collective 49 points (the loss at New York became an Over in overtime, but as always we only chart regulation play). And now that they are back at home for the first time since January 31st, with ample time to put a defensive game plan together, we can expect a stifling effort on that end of the court.

It is not just a case of losing explosive players in Terry and Ginobli, but also the fact that it impacts the depth as well, further exacerbated for Dallas because Jerry Stackhouse has to shut down again. It means a grinder of a tempo from the start for two teams that already know each other quite well, and with both also having to play on Wednesday there is not much fear of the pace ever speeding up, as each coach manages his limited pieces.

REASON FOR PICK: 4* #723 INDIANA STATE +9 over WICHITA STATE

In cashing a 4* ticket with Indiana State at Southern Illinois last week we never had to sweat, with the underdog Sycamores winning wire-to-wire. They followed that up with a Bracket Buster win at home over Toledo that takes the winning streak to five games, and has their confidence at the highest level it has been all year. But here is what happens when a team starts as poorly as they did – the oddsmakers never do catch up, largely because they do not have to. There simply is not much market demand for a team this far off of the radar screens. So what do we have tonight? A hungry and aggressive side that brings plenty of focus, since a win here would get them into a tie with Wichita State in the Missouri Valley standings, and a chance to move a step closer to avoiding the tourney play-in game. This is a very high line for teams that are only a game apart in the standings, and keep in mind that when Harry Marshall has been in the Indiana State lineup the Sycamores actually have a better conference record than the Shockers. That gets us in the game here.

While Indiana State is on a major role, offensively-challenged and depth-shy Wichita State is going to have a difficult time putting opponents away. The Shockers are shooting only 43.7 from the field, and 66.5 at the free throw line, which is a reason why they have only won two conference games all season by more than eight points. Nothing comes easily for them, much like their earlier 64-58 road win over Indiana State, rallying from a second-half deficit to get past a Sycamore team that was not playing at anywhere near the level that they are right now.

We do not believe that the home court advantage is worth what this price makes it to be. Indy State has already won at Northern Iowa, tied for first in the Valley, #2 Illinois State, Missouri State and Southern Illinois, while also covering at Creighton, which is tied with Northern Iowa for the top spot. And there is that added motivation to win one for senior key cog Jay Tunnell, who leads the team in scoring and is second in rebounding, in the final “homecoming” opportunity for the Topeka native. His take - “It would be huge to get that win. Anytime any one of us goes close to home, you want to beat that team that you feel should’ve shown more interest in you. Anytime we go back and play Wichita, I feel like I play better there and with the atmosphere, it’s not hard to get yourself going for a game.”

[horsey]

Re: 2-24-09

Drew Gordon

1. 200,000? Penn State
2. 50,000? Florida

[horsey]

Re: 2-24-09

Trace Adams
1500* - Detroit Pistons, 500* - Ohio State Buckeyes It has been ugly in Detroit these days, as the Pistons take a monster 6-game losing streak into Miami for Tuesday's game against the Heat.

Call me crazy, but I have a feeling that Detroit may just end their skid tonight against the inconsistent Miami Heat.

The fact we are catching a couple of baskets gives us a bit of a safety net should the skid move to 7 in a row.

Miami is just 3-5 straight up their last 8, and they have dropped 2 of their last 3 when laying points.

Detroit is still 13-12 against the spread on the road, while Miami is only 12-15-1 against the spread at home this season.

Series numbers show the Pistons having won 6 straight, and 7 of the last 8 during the regular season.

Have to grab the points here, and look for the sliding Pistons to save some face.

1500? - Detroit Pistons





bought,payed and confirmed--------------

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-24-09

Seabass
Seabass steam Fsu


20* penn st
30* st. John
50* lsu
30* dallas over- nba
30* charl
30* memphis under
confirmed

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-24-09

Teddy June

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
10* San Diego St

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-24-09

DOC

4 florida state
4 creighton
4 lsu over

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-24-09

Marco D'Angelo | CBB Sides
double-dime bet742 San Diego St. -1.0 (-110) BetUS vs 741 Brigham Young
Analysis: PLAY: SAN DIEGO ST
RATING: DOUBLE DIME PLAY

Tonight BYU travels to San Diego St to battle in a key conference game. BYU just suffered a gut wrenching loss on Saturday Night here in Las Vegas against UNLV. This is a tough scheduling spot having to travel to San Diego St after that big game on Saturday. The average person will look for BYU to bounce back as prior to that 1 point loss they had won 5 in a row. San Diego ST plays with revenge and has excelled in that situation as they are 10-2 ATS the last 3 years when playing at Home in a revenge situation. Also note San Diego St will be highly focused tonight trying to erase that bad taste out of their mouth from their blowout loss on Saturday when they lost 75-49. I have San Diego St winning by 6-8 points.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 2-24-09

Marco D'Angelo | NBA Sides
triple-dime bet715 CHL 7.5 (-110) Bodog vs 716 PHO
Analysis: PLAY: CHARLOTTE
RATING: TRIPLE DIME PLAY

Ok let me say right from the start that we will be in the minority with this play as everyone will be looking for Phoenix to bounce back from Sunday's loss to Boston as they won 3 in a row before that scoring 140 or more points in all 3 games. Look at who they played the Clippers twice and Oklahoma City. Yes I know Charlotte isn't great but they are in the right spot here. Phoenix was feeling pretty full of them selves after those 3 Blowout wins but when they stepped up in class against Boston they were slapped right in the face with a dose of reality that they really aren't that good. Reality sucks some times and I look for Phoenix to be sluggish tonight. Charlotte on the other hand will be eager to get back on track after their blowout loss on Sunday to Houston. Vegas knows the public will be betting Phoenix and they are making you pay the price for it which suits us just fine as we will take the inflated line with Charlotte who is going to take this game right to the wire. I have this as a 1-3 point game either way and a outright win would not surprise me. This is my 10* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH.