Sunday 1/29/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 1/29/23

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January 29, 2023
“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Sareeha
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Sareeha is listed at 6/5 on the morning line in this maiden special weight grass event over nine furlongs, so while she appears to be a logical winner there won’t be much wagering value to be found. The Irish-bred filly has finished second in her last five outings - most recently at 4/5 in a similar affair in November at Del Mar – so she may be a hard one to trust, but this will be her first in blinkers and her recent work tab is steady and healthy, so for the Graham Motion-trained daughter of Shamardal it’s pretty much a case now or never.

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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Faustin; 1-Havanameltdown
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: This year’s renewal of the San Vicente Stakes-G2 drew just five runners, four of which hail from the Bob Baffert barn. Faustin, quite smart in a debut win last month on opening day, returns in this logical spot over what should be an ideal seven furlong distance for his stalk and close style. The Curlin colt earned a powerful speed figure in victory in what we suspect will prove to be a highly productive race, so this move into stakes company should be well within his scope. Stable mate Havnameltdown has been successful in three of four career outings, two of which were graded stakes, and has the stronger resume (so far) and therefore likely will go favorite. His rail post will force his hand but the son of Uncaptured is a quick sort and the likely pacesetter, so if he’s not pressured early could easily take this field gate to wire.

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RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Sonoran
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: It took a possibly top class colt in Faustin to prevent Sonoran from winning at first asking but the son of Ride On Curlin lost little in defeat when second in a fast, highly rated race last month. The Bob Baffert-trained colt came back to breeze in :59 3/5 (seventh fastest of 53, slightly best in a team drill) last week, so we’re expecting a forward move from this talented sophomore, which brought $230,000 at the OBS sale last summer. Johnny V. stays aboard, Lasix is added, so at 4/5 on the morning line we’ll make him a short-priced rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.

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RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Grazed My Heart
Backups/Savers: none

Forecast: This starter optional claiming turf sprint for sophomore fillies looks made to order for the stakes winning Grazed My Heart, a thoroughly genuine and consistent daughter of Grazen. A perfect two-for-two over the Santa Anita turf course, the Jeff Mullins-trained filly earned a career top speed figure winning the Cal Cup Oaks and before that was an excellent runner-up in the Soviet Problem Stakes. She is eligible to this race for having raced (and claimed for) $50,000 earlier in her career, so at 9/5 on the morning line but likely to go lower she is a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Big Buzz; 3-High Heater; 1-Next Revolt
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in the fifth race, a $20,000 main track miler for older horses. Big Buzz much prefers dirt and seems certain to snap back to good form after failing to land a blow in a slightly stronger event on grass just seven days ago. Always most effective when held up early and allowed to run late, the veteran son of Mr. Big remains above his claim level, retains top rider Juan Hernandez, and has several recent speed figures that are better than par for this league. High Heater, first off the Steve Knapp claim (18% with a strong ROI with this angle), projects to enjoy a comfortable pace stalking trip through moderate fractions and should have every chance from the quarter pole home. He is reunited with “win rider” Tiago Pereira and is a “must use” in the rolling exotics. Next Revolt, a $20,000 claim by Bob Hess, Jr., is wheeled back at the same level and switches to Flavian Prat, who has won on him in the past. He’s stretching out after a series of sprints and should be prominent early and saving ground throughout.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Greenbow
Backups/savers: 4-El Potente; 10-Chicago Soldier

Forecast: This maiden $50,000 claiming sprint for older horses on grass may produce significant improvement from the class dropping Greenbow, our top selection and good value play at or near his morning line of 7/2. The 5-year-old son of Runhappy has been seeing considerably tougher foes in straight maiden races but actually earned a decent speed figure when fifth over this course and distance two races back after finishing a troubled fifth, beaten four lengths in a race last fall. Freshened since mid-November and showing a steady, healthy series of recent works, the Richard Mandella-trained horse adds blinkers for the first time, retains regular rider Umberto Rispoli, and should find himself in the second flight, ready to pounce when called upon. Worth including on saver tickets are El Potente and Chicago Soldier. The former was a respectable third with a career top number vs. similar on dirt in his recent comeback and should be able to build on that effort over a surface he’s bred to like. The latter returns as a first time gelding for hot trainer Mark Glatt and seems likely to produce a dangerous late kick.

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RACE 7: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Ceiling Crusher
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Ceiling Crusher was highly impressive graduating at first asking last June over the local main track like a stakes-quality prospect but then had to be stopped on. She returns with a very good series of workouts – including an impressive solo gate drill in 1:00 flat seven days ago – to have her fit and ready, and from her cozy outside draw this gifted daughter of Mr. Big can easily to dictate the race flow. At 8/5 on the morning line and certain to go lower, she’s a standout in the win pool and as a rolling exotic single.

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RACE 8: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Motorious
Backups/savers: 7-Lane Way

Forecast: Motorious shows a pair of recent powerful victories against allowance foes and the English-bred gelding projects to continue his winning ways today while moving into listed stakes company. A prototype late-running sprinter, the Phil D’Amato-trained gelding retains Flavian Prat and based on speed figures seems likely to settle early and then blow on by late. His 2-1 morning line offers a good gambling price if you can get it. Lane Way can be used as a backup or a saver. First or second in six of seven career starts on grass, the son of Into Mischief is solid on numbers, proven over the tricky Hillside Course, and should draft into a comfortable stalking position and have his chance from the top of the lane to the wire.


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RACE 9: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Big Drinker; 8-Thirsty
Backups/savers: 7-Regulation Dazed

Forecast: We’ll triple the finale, a maiden claiming dirt sprint for state-bred 3-Year-olds. Big Drinker, third in both of his starts to date in similar company, produced a massive raise in speed figures when overcoming a slow start to miss by a half-length earlier this month. With another forward move today (and with a clean start from the gate), the Stay Thirsty colt should be hard to beat. Thirsty displayed plenty of zip in his debut vs. straight maidens but stopped badly in the final furlong to be well-beaten. How much stick he has to his zip remains to be seen, but with a clean break the Peter Miller-trained gelding should be able to clear the field and have every chance to wire the field. Regulation Dazed also sports the first time-in-a-claimer angle and seems certain to improve at this level. The Doug O’Neill-trained gelding returns to dirt, has numbers that fit, and with a trouble-free trip seems likely to be within range throughout.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

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January 29, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
Northfield Park starts the week with a 15-race card. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 begins in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11

4-Almanac (5/2)-Is only 2 for 17 here but has cashed checks versus better. Comes off a nice 2nd place effort in a quick mile on a good track. This could be a chalky start to the Pick 4 sequence.
5-Grantmeawish (2-1)-Faded in the last 2 starts at MVR and now lands in a good spot to post a win. Ships back here for a purpose and should be a main player. Nfld record is a perfect 2 for 2.

Race 12

6-Predator And Prey (7/2)-Suffered an interference break but still finished 2nd versus this kind in last. Has the gate speed to race on top or in the pocket and could be tough to beat with a smooth trip.
7-Light Blue Movers (5/2)-Has 2 recent wins at this class and Merriman has some options. Can race on the lead or come off a helmet and has done well here (34-13-5-8).

Race 13

4-Rockn Motion (5-1)-Looking for a solid price and the driver change to Myers shouldn't hurt. Needs a sharp steer and from this post that could happen. Might land on the point or in the pocket behind the one below, and either could work for a picture.
5-Zanetti (9/2)-Will toss last from post 7, should be out and rolling here. Merriman will likely want the top and play catch me if you can.
9-Bernie (9/2)-The 7-year-old son of Big Jim is in sharp form and this is the 2nd straight race starting from post 9. Not sure how he will get there but is worth a swing at the program price. Best to respect, just missed last week starting from the 2nd tier.

Race 14

3-Fly Charlie Fly (5-1)-Charlie comes off 2 even efforts but that was against straight Open company. Should have a lot more to offer versus this group. Has hit the board in 28 of 54 Nfld races and will hope the morning line price holds up in a drop and pop situation.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

4,5/6,7/4,5,9/3
Total Bet=$12

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Fair Grounds - Race #2

#1 Keep On	There are a couple stretchout players who might pose a big threat to this guy, but at least he has some two-turn experience and a couple races that would stack up nicely with these. Chance as maybe the third choice?
#4 Spinstrawinto Gold	He was no threat when a distant third on debut, but there is some upside here in the second start while getting around two turns with a good tactical trip looming.
#2 Autumn's So Flashy	He has shown some modest finishing ability going short so far, and maybe that translates into a more one-paced trip at this route distance. Think he's a legit player.
Race Summary	Keep On might offer an okay price in here, as he doesn't often threaten a winner, but he does have some route form and a chance to get a good first-over trip.

Fair Grounds - Race #6

#8 Star Moment	She couldn't hang with stakes company last out, but she should get a good tactical trip while getting around two turns, and she has some upside on the move to the turf. Player.
#3 Top Ten Duchess	She'll step up off the bench after a string of nice races at Louisiana Downs, and she has run well both locally and with this type of company in the past. Mid-range price chance.
#4 Seriously Sam	She came forward in a big way in that second start off the break last out when controlling the tempo, and she has some useful turf form in her past running lines.
Race Summary	Star Moment might like this trip after getting outrun by stakes company last time out, and it may not be a bad thing to be drawn wide over this course right now.

Fair Grounds - Race #7

#9 Guntown	Going to give him one more chance while making this third start off the break, as I expected something a bit better from him last time around. Think the price will be okay.
#6 Bartula	If something like his last effort has become his new baseline, the rest of these should be running for second, but I worry that he has taken a couple big steps forward pretty quickly and might be beatable here? Otherwise he might put on a show.
#5 Fair Dinkum	He has some positional pace that should keep him in the mix turning for home, and he probably still has a little upside after just three career starts.
Race Summary	Guntown might be able to move forward in this third start off the bench, and I think he should get a perfect trip spying the speed today.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Santa Anita Park

PURCHASE

Santa Anita Park - Race 1	$1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double $0.50 Rolling Pick Three (Races 1-2-3) $0.50 Early Pick 5 (Races 1-5) $0.10 Superfecta
Maiden Special • 1 1/8 Miles • Turf • Ages 4 and up • CR: 88 • Purse: $67,000 • Post: 12:30
(RAIL AT 20 FEET). FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. (NON-STARTERS FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $40,000 OR LESS IN THEIR LAST STARTS PREFERRED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. SAREEHA (IRE) is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SAREEHA (IRE): Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. EXIT SOUL: Horse ranks i n the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. INFINITE EMPIRE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
2	SAREEHA (IRE)	6/5	5/2
6	EXIT SOUL	5/2	9/2
3	INFINITE EMPIRE	4/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	SAREEHA (IRE)	2	6/5	Stalker	91	94	90.3	90.3	87.8
6	EXIT SOUL	6	5/2	Stalker	94	86	81.5	84.4	80.9
1	CHLOE'S CROWN	1	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	77.8	77.8	70.3
3	INFINITE EMPIRE	3	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	87	83	74.9	78.7	70.7
4	TALENTED LADY	4	6/1	Trailer	90	88	71.4	79.0	71.0
5	TIZ MY PRINCESS	5	20/1	Trailer	80	73	57.0	72.6	61.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream ParkPURCHASE

Gulfstream Park - Race 2	$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5 $.50 Bet 3 (Races 2-3-4) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
Claiming $20,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 90 • Purse: $28,000 • Post: 12:39
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JULY 29, 2022. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF THREE RACES ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000, IF FOR $16,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. RESERVENOTATTAINED is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * RESERVENOTATTAINED: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 d ays. ROUGH ENTRY: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. SENSEI LAWRENCE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Powe r Rating. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
7	RESERVENOTATTAINED	5/2	5/2
4	ROUGH ENTRY	7/2	5/1
3	SENSEI LAWRENCE	8/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	RAISE THE RENT	6	5/1	Front-runner	92	83	90.6	76.4	68.4
7	RESERVENOTATTAINED	7	5/2	Stalker	100	94	91.0	89.0	86.5
2	ADVENTURE SEEKER	2	10/1	Stalker	65	69	65.4	61.6	47.6
4	ROUGH ENTRY	4	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	102	104	84.2	77.4	70.4
3	SENSEI LAWRENCE	3	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	90	88	61.0	79.2	73.2
5	GET SET	5	4/1	Trailer	94	87	59.0	77.0	69.5
1	MIGHTY TOUGH	1	5/1	Trailer	77	73	53.0	73.4	62.9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $11000 Class Rating: 37

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. INF. Y DEBUTANTES ALLOWED 4 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 MI ABUELA BERTA A 7/2
# 3 MISS UBINAS 2/1
# 6 APRIL QUEEN 15/1

My pick for this event is MI ABUELA BERTA A. Will almost certainly compete solidly in the early pace battle which bodes well with this group. This filly gets a boost with Rivera in the irons. This horse is at the top in this group in earnings per start at the distance/surface. MISS UBINAS - Morales has one of the best winning percentages in this group of horses in this race with entries running at this distance and surface. With a reliable jockey who has won at a strong 32 percent clip over the last 30 days. This has to be one of the top selections.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #9 - Post: 4:40pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $17,100 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#3 BIG RED ROCKS (ML=3/1)
#7 VETERANS BEACH (ML=5/2)
#4 SIMMS (ML=8/1)


BIG RED ROCKS - Believe in this horse. No other viable pace gives this horse a strong chance at the winner's circle. I like the hard fact that this gelding's last speed fig, 83, is tops in this field. VETERANS BEACH - Gelding has shown some speed. This shorter trip should be better for him. This gelding is in good condition. Ended up third on January 11th. I expect a lot from this beautiful animal. His speed figs under similar conditions are tops in this group. May be extremely hard to beat this steed on the turf today. Last out scored a nice turf fig, the highest of any of these animals. This animal is uppermost in earnings per start. He looks nice in today's event. SIMMS - I think this gelding is coming into top form. Don't often see a positive ROI like +380. This jockey/trainer duo has done well together over the last 12 months. This gelding is in good condition, having run a strong race on Jan 13th, finishing first.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 CLASSIC BET (ML=5/1), #8 SKIPPERINI (ML=8/1),

CLASSIC BET - This horse hasn't been close in either of his last couple of races. Pedestrian speed fig in the last race at Tampa Bay Downs at 1 1/16 miles. Don't think this less than sharp equine will improve too much in today's event. SKIPPERINI - This equine hasn't been around in either of his last couple of races. This horse ran a somewhat easily forgotten speed figure last race out. He shouldn't improve and will likely get beat in today's race running that fig.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#3 BIG RED ROCKS is the play if we get odds of 7/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Golden Hour Wagers

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $17000 Class Rating: 90

GG - R8 - FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $10,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 DIAMOND RANGER 2/1
# 2 MIKE DAD 3/1
# 8 ROYAL JESTER 10/1

I have to support DIAMOND RANGER here. Sound average Equibase Speed Figs in dirt sprint races make this racer a solid contender. Has solid early speed and will probably fare solidly versus this group. With a solid 89 speed fig last time out, will unquestionably be a factor in this contest. MIKE DAD - Rivera has been on fire the last month, winning at a nifty 20 percent clip. Could best this field based on the speed figure - 91 - of his last effort. ROYAL JESTER - Ought to come out very solid - I have liked the way this gelding has moved swiftly to the lead recently. Is a solid choice - given the 90 Equibase Speed Fig from his most recent race.

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Golden Gate Fields - Race #4 - Post: 2:14pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,500 Class Rating: 64

Rating:

#8 START THEM UP (ML=7/2)
#5 DRUIDIC (ML=9/5)


START THEM UP - Jockey jumped on this gelding's back for the first ride on January 7th. Should know the equine even better this race. I like that last race on Jan 7th at Golden Gate Fields where he finished third. I like this gelding. Has the highest (EPS) earnings per start in this contest. Took a big class drop last out, and I think he may have needed it. Sherman enters him at a similar level today. I'd expect an improved performance. DRUIDIC - If this gelding gets out of the gate cleanly, he'll be tough to catch. Baker drops him down to this class level. You don't need too much more from the horse's history to figure that this one has a good chance at this level. That 57 fig this gelding earned in his last clash tells me he's a key player this time around. Generally speaking, horses on Lasix for the 1st time should be considered. That's what we have here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 PASSION OF JOE'S (ML=4/1), #1 EYESA SPECIAL (ML=6/1), #4 CORK MASTER (ML=8/1),

PASSION OF JOE'S - This colt finished outside the top 3 on November 20th and wasn't close to winning last out either. Will be hard for this horse to beat this bunch off of that last speed rating. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class rating, so put him on the questionable contenders list. EYESA SPECIAL - Last raced on Nov 27th at Golden Gate Fields, finishing sixth. Unlikely to move up off of that effort in today's event. This entrant ran a mediocre speed figure last time around the track. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will likely get beat in today's event running that figure. CORK MASTER - This racer hasn't shown very much in the last pair of races.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#8 START THEM UP to win at post-time odds of 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hong Kong Selections for Sunday, January 29, 2023

Paul Lally:

R1: 2-1-10-5

R2: 7-10-12-14

R3: 5-6-9-1

R4: 4-8-3-1

R5: 4-1-2-13

R6: 4-5-2-3

R7: 2-1-3-6

R8: 9-6-4-10

R9: 2-3-11-5

R10: 5-1-8-6

Best Bet R2 N7 Nice Birdie

Longshot R5 N4 Find My Love

Play R10 QQP 1-5-8

:: Hong Kong: Free PPs, picks, analysis, replays, and live streaming

Tom Wood:

R1: 6-5-9-1

R2: 7-10-12-6

R3: 7-6-5-2

R4: 4-9-10-3
R5: 2-1-12-4

R6: 5-2-3-11

R7: 2-1-3-4

R8: 8-5-1-9

R9: 2-3-10-9

R10: 7-1-8-11

BEST: R9 N2 KEEFY (WIN)

VALUE: R8 N8 KARMA (EW)

PLAY: R8 QQP 1,5,8





Mark McNamara:

R1: 5.11.2.1

R2: 7.12.10.2

R3: 7.6.1.2

R4: 4.3.9.8

R5: 1.2.12.10

R6: 12.5.3.4

R7: 2.1.3.7

R8: 10.1.9.8

R9: 3.2.10.4

R10: 8.1.7.5

Beat Bet R8 N10 Indigenous Realm

Longshot R6 N12 Great for You

Play r6 Q/QP 3.5.12



Nick Child:

R1: 2-5-1-9

R2: 7-5-10-12

R3: 7-6-1-5

R4: 4-9-7-3

R5: 10-2-1-5

R6: 11-4-3-10

R7: 1-2-3-4

R8: 9-8-1-5

R9: 3-5-10-2

R10: 5-1-8-3

BEST BET: R9 N3 PACKING TREADMILL

LONGSHOT BET: R6 N11 ACE TALENT

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rocket Picks ��: Oaklawn Park, Gulfstream Park, and Santa Anita for January 29, 2023
By: Aaron Halterman

Let’s get another big Sunday of racing kicked off today! For the free pick 4, we will head to Oaklawn Park for the Late Pick 4 on the card. We will also have full card selections for Santa Anita and Gulfstream Park for the paid Rockets, so be sure to check those out. Let’s GO!

Below is our free late Pick 4 for Oaklawn Park:

Oaklawn Park January 29, 2023

Race 6: Maiden Special Weight

#5 Dixie Fury goes for three in a row after back to back dominant efforts at Churchill Downs and Oaklawn Park. She will win here with a similar performance. #3 Rich Gold moves back to the dirt today, which is where he won two starts back. This easily looks to be his best surface.

Race 7: Allowance Optional Claiming
freestar

#7 Empire Pass drops down in class today after defeating tougher rivals two starts back at Remington Park. She should be tough against this class level. #3 Storming Lady moves over to the dirt today after several solid turf effort on the Southern California circuit.

Race 8: Claiming

#2 Kupuna looks for two straight wins today after dominating his rivals last time out in a similar race at Fair Grounds. This will also be his third start off of the layoff. #3 Disc Jockey looks for his fifth straight victory today after a sharp victory in a similar race last time out over this track. He should take this field gate to wire if he is good enough.

Race 9: Maiden Claiming

#5 Gunning drops down to the allowance ranks today after taking on stakes company in her last two starts. She should enjoy the drop to this level. #8 Secret Fix was not good over this track last time out, but should run better in her second start over the surface for a solid trainer.

THE TICKET

$.50 Pick 4 (Races 7-10) 3,5 / 3,7 / 1,2,3,4 / 3,5,8,11 – $32

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Geelong best bets & quaddie tips | January 29, 2023
January 28, 2023 11:14 am.
James Herbert

What Geelong Races
Where Geelong Racecourse – 99 Breakwater Rd, Breakwater, VIC, 3219
When Sunday, January 29, 2023
First Race 1:20pm AEDT
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We head down the highway on Sunday afternoon for an eight-race program at Geelong Racecourse. With warm weather expected across Melbourne and its surrounds, we expect a firm, but fair fair track for competitors on Sunday with the track expected to go from a Soft 5 to a Good 4 prior to race one.

We kick off the day of racing at 1:20pm AEDT, with the rail coming out 3m the entire circuit.
Best Bet at Geelong – Attrition

We’re getting even-money odds about dominant last start maiden winner Attrition who steps out in the penultimate race of the day at Geelong. This three-year-old colt could not have been any more impressive when winning at Sandown last time out when giving his rivals a start and a beating. The win showed he is possessed with above average talent and despite drawing barrier two on Sunday, simply looks too good for BM64 grade, with metropolitan racing surely on Mitch Freedman’s agenda. Look for Jarrod Fry to have this Churchill colt settled at the rear of the field and armed with an explosive turn of foot, we expect to see Attrition thundering home down the centre of the track and ultimately prove too classy for this lot.
Best Bet

Race 7 – Silk #10 Attrition (2)

3yo Colt | T: Mitchell Freedman | J: Jarrod Fry (58kg)

$2 with Unibet
Next Best at Geelong – Memphis Shadow

Tony & Jake Noonan are set to combine with three-year-old gelding Memphis Shadow in the second race and based on his performances so far, he looks a great bet. He finished third behind Attrition last time out at Sandown on January 11 and considering we like his chances later on the card, Memphis Shadow has to be respected in this maiden event. This American Pharoah gelding finished third on that day and in what looks to be a similar maiden, albeit without the class of Attrition, he looks a clear on top selection. From barrier 11, Jake Noonan will need a touch of luck early so he does not get trapped wide with no cover. If he can slot midfield with cover, he has shown in his two starts to date that he has a strong finishing burst and third-up, he should be reaching peak fitness.
Next Best

Race 2 – Silk #8 Memphis Shadow (11)

3yo Gelding | T: Tony Noonan | J: Jake Noonan (58kg)

$4.20 with Bet365
Best Value at Geelong – Daicos

Fresh off a narrow defeat at Cranbourne on January 13, the Peter & Paul Snowden-trained Daicos looks to present great value at Geelong. The Capitalist colt settles close to the speed throughout but has continually found or two better in his four-start career to date. He draws out wide in barrier 11, but his early gate speed should offset that under Michael Dee. If he can slot in just behind the expected leaders American Liaison and Irish Crickets, he should gain a nice tow into the race. Daicos has plenty of upside and we expect him to salute at a nice price with online betting sites.
Best Value

Race 3 – Silk #4 Daicos (11)

3yo Colt | T: Peter & Paul Snowden | J: Michael Dee (58kg)

$9.50 with Palmerbet
Sunday Quaddie Tips for Geelong
Geelong quadrella selections

Sunday, January 29, 2023

5-7
1-3-4-5
10
7-8-9-13

Investment: $32 for 100%

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sapphire Coast racing tips, top odds & quaddie | Sunday 29/1/2023
January 27, 2023 4:44 pm.
Nathan Keven

What Sapphire Coast Races
Where Sapphire Coast Turf Club – 1695 Sapphire Coast Dr, Wallagoot NSW 2550
When Sunday, January 29, 2023
First Race 1:15pm AEDT

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Country racing heads to the Sapphire Coast on Sunday afternoon for a competitive eight-race program. We’ve got two feature races with a combined total of $130,000 of prizemoney on offer in the Showcase Sprint and Showcase Cup. The rail is in the true position the entire circuit for race-day, and while the track is listed as a Good 4, predicted rain on Sunday could push the rating into the Soft range. The first race is scheduled to get underway from 1:15pm AEDT.
Showcase Sprint: Look Only

The double-figure price on offer for our top selection seems like massive overs. Look Only started as a $67 outsider last time out at Canterbury on January 20 and would’ve been the winner if she had any luck turning for home. Jockey Ellen Hennessy didn’t do anything wrong when looking to save ground with rails runs on that occasion; however, things never eventuated and she found nothing but backsides turning into the short straight at Canterbury. She did get clear with about 100m to go and proceeded to hit the line the best, just running out of time as Julian Rock held on to score by just under a length. She beat home short-priced favourite Latenighttoughguy, who would be a genuine even-money chance in a race like this, so the $10 here looks like a steal. Richard Bensley takes the reins, and with just an extra 4kg to carry from the Canterbury run, along with a positive speed map to boot, Look Only is a must each-way bet.
Showcase Sprint

Race 6 – Look Only#7 Look Only (6)

6yo Mare | T: Fabian Azzopardi | J: Richard Bensley (55kg)

$10 with Bet365
Showcase Cup: Manderboss

Manderboss looks to have found his best winning chance this preparation in the Showcase Cup over the 1600m. His form reads so strongly for a race like this, with runs at Randwick and Rosehill behind gallopers – such as Banju, Colour Sergeant, Danish Prince and Tamerlane – that would all be extremely short in the market in a race of this quality. This gelding by Vadamos has been within two lengths of all those horses and finally should be finding the winner’s enclosure on Sunday afternoon. He gets in with just the 54kg in open company and has been perfectly placed by the stable, which has three runners accepted for the race. From barrier five, jockey Quayde Krogh can find a spot better than midfield before producing this six-year-old late to win with some dominance.
Showcase Cup

Race 7 – Manderboss#12 Manderboss (5)

4yo Gelding | T: Barbara Joseph, Paul & Matt Jones | J: Quayde Krogh (54kg)

$3.40 with Ladbrokes
Best Bet at Sapphire Coast: Too Sharp

We jump back to the opener to find our best of the day at the Sapphire Coast with Too Sharp looking to debut a winner. His one barrier trial isn’t usually what we like to see, as Quayde Krogh asked for a big effort from well back in the field at Canberra over 900m. He won the trial, though, under solid riding, and it was almost race-day conditions the way the Joseph and Jones team instructed Krogh to push the button on this son of Bull Point. It was impressive to the eye and gives us confidence he can take that effort into Sunday afternoon. He’s up against a small field in his debut run and we think it rates similarly to his trial effort with some lightly raced gallopers that don’t seem to have as much upside. Too Sharp may be back in the field early, but expect to see this three-year-old wind up down the outside late to secure victory.
Best Bet

Race 1 – Too Sharp#1 Too Sharp (1)

3yo Gelding | T: Barbara Joseph, Paul & Matt Jones | J: Quayde Krogh (58kg)

$3.10 with Unibet
Sunday quaddie tips for Sapphire Coast races
Sapphire Coast quadrella selections

Sunday, January 29, 2023

1-2-3-5-12
2-7-8
12
2-3-6-8

Investment: $180 for 100%

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday

Sunday’s Sha Tin racing preview & best bets | January 29, 2023
January 27, 2023 6:26 pm.
Nathan Keven

What Stewards’ Cup Day
Where Sha Tin Racecourse – Tai Po Rd, Sha Tin District, Hong Kong
When Sunday, January 29, 2023
First Race 1pm HKT (4pm AEDT)

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Ever since the Hong Kong International Races, all punters have been thinking about is the possibility of the three stars of HK racing meeting up in the Stewards’ Cup, and that’s exactly what we get on Sunday afternoon. Golden Sixty, California Spangle and Romantic Warrior will all line up in the Group 1 over the 1600m, so make sure you check out our preview and betting strategy for that one.

The quality racing doesn’t stop there, however, with the first leg of the four-year-old series getting underway with the Hong Kong Classic Mile. The world’s best have even made the trek with James McDonald, Jamie Kah and Ryan Moore all heading over to pick up some key chances throughout the 10-race card.

We should have picture-perfect conditions for the meeting as well, with nothing but clear skies forecast heading into Sunday as the rail moves to the A+3 course. The first race is set to get underway at 1pm local time.
Hong Kong Classic Mile: Keefy

The Hong Kong Classic Mile looks a wide-open affair; however, we’ve landed with Keefy in the first leg of the four-year-old series. Trainer Frankie Lor seems to have this son of All Too Hard airborne heading into Sunday’s 1600m contest and looks to be improving on every start. Despite being beaten last time out by likely favourite, Packing Treadmill, Keefy wasn’t disgraced on December 24. After drawing wide in the Class 2, Derek Leung was forced to go forward and sit outside the leader before Packing Treadmill peeled off his back to score, beating Keefy by 1.3 lengths. The pattern just didn’t suit him and now drawn barrier seven on Sunday he can replicate what he did two starts back in the Class 1 Chevalier Cup on November 27. He was ridden with cover in the one-by-one and produced an electric turn-of-foot smashing the clock in the process. Take him on that effort and he’s the one to beat in our opinion. Silvestre de Sousa takes the reins now and gets a major 6kg swing on Packing Treadmill which should make all the difference in Keefy turning the tables to win.
HK Classic Mile

Race 9 – Keefy#2 Keefy (7)

4yo Gelding | T: Frankie Lor | J: Silvestre de Sousa (57kg)

$5 with Bet365
Best Bet at Sha Tin: Beauty Tycoon

We’ve been with Beauty Tycoon for his back-to-back wins at Happy Valley and see no reason to be jumping off him now, as he looks for three straight victories. He goes up into Class 2 for the first time and is going outstanding this preparation for trainer John Size. He’s been a work in progressive; however, his two wins at Happy Valley have been dominant when either leading or sitting on the leaders back in transit and that shouldn’t change despite the change of scenery at Sha Tin. He won at this course and distance back on October 1 in Class 4 in style when beating One Voice. Then subsequently ran third behind King Land in Class 3 after sitting wide throughout to cling on well for third on that occasion. Purton gets off Beauty Tycoon for Rock Ya Heart, although the jury’s out as to whether that’s more of a case that Purton couldn’t make the 53.5kg. Regardless, we’re happy to have Karis Teetan aboard, who from barrier four should get a perfect run to lead if he wants it, with a real lack of tempo on paper. Beauty Tycoon has been rock solid for us, so we’ll be sticking solid with him on Sunday.
Best Bet

Race 3 – #7 Beauty Tycoon (4)

4yo Gelding | T: John Size | J: Karis Teetan (53.5kg)

$3.50 with Neds
Next Best Bet: Innoconstruction

Zac Purton has another strong book of rides and Innoconstruction looks one of his better chances throughout the card. He comes here second-up after an eye-catching debut performance behind Chilli Baba down the Sha Tin 1000m straight on New Year’s Day and was unlucky not to be winning at a monster price, going down by a nostril. He started at $101 with online Bookmakers and clearly outran his quote on that occasion sticking on gamely only to be chased down in the shadows of the post. He now draws barrier seven with the king Zac Purton hopping aboard, should be seeing Innoconstruction ping the lids and come across to sit outside the other likely speed horse, Cheval Valiant. You can tie the form in between these two galloper via Flying High, who ran into second last weekend behind Prince Of Porty. Innoconstruction beat home Flying High, while Cheval Valiant was a neck in behind him. An interesting factor analysing the race. We’re happy to be with Innoconstruction though, with the upside he may possess.
Next Best

Race 6 – #4 Innoconstruction (7)

3yo Gelding | T: Francis Lui | J: Zac Purton (58kg)

$3.40 with PlayUp
Best Value Bet: Karma

Karma has to be one of the more intriguing gallopers on the program, as he comes here for his debut performance over the 1400m. This Turn Me Loose gelding has had three barrier trials in total; however, only the last two in last month with both catching our eye. He made ground comfortably in his Conghua turf trial on December 22, before finishing three-lengths behind Prince Of Porty in a 1000m trial at Sha Tin on January 10. The latter saw Karma do no work to the line and still have plenty up his sleeve chasing them home. There’s an X-Factor about this unraced four-year-old and the fact that Caspar Fownes has elected to kick-off his campaign over 1400m suggests to us he ready to make a statement here. He draws to get the beautiful run in behind the speed and if his trials are anything to go by, he might just be able to storm over the top of them late. We should get a decent price with online Bookmakers too when they open, with gallopers like Gluck Racer and Beauty Mission, sure to have their admirers.
Best Value

Race 8 – #8 Karma (1)

4yo Gelding | T: Caspar Fownes | J: Luke Currie (57.5kg)

$8 with Unibet
HK quaddie tips for Sha Tin races
Sha Tin quadrella selections

Sunday, January 29, 2023

1-2
1-3-4-8-9
1-2-3-5-10
1-2-3-7-8

Investment: $250 for 100%

[Can'tPickAWinner]

2023 Hong Kong Stewards’ Cup preview & betting strategy
January 27, 2023 11:11 am.
Nathan Keven

What 2023 Stewards’ Cup
Where Sha Tin Racecourse
When Sunday, January 29, 2023 | 4:05pm HKT (7:05pm AEDT) | Race 7
Prizemoney HK$12,000,000
Distance 1600m
Status Group 1
Conditions WFA
2022 Winner Waikuku (4) | T: John Size | J: Zac Purton (57kg)

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We have a stellar 2023 edition of the Stewards’ Cup as Hong Kong’s highest rated gallopers – Golden Sixty, Romantic Warrior and California Spangle – have all accepted for the Group 1 contest over 1600m. We’ve got a small but quality field of seven runners set to line up on Sunday afternoon including last year’s winner Waikuku, looking to take on the challenge of knocking off some outstanding opposition.

Most of the form-lines come from the Hong Kong International Races where we saw Golden Sixty and California Spangle tackle the Group 1 Hong Kong Mile, with the latter jagging success. While Romantic Warrior demoralised his opposition in the Group 1 Hong Kong Cup. Panfield is the other galloper coming from a differing form-line dropping back in trip from the Group 1 Hong Kong Vase, all on the same day.
Stewards’ Cup odds

Online Bookmakers don’t know where to look in terms of prices and don’t want punters to latch onto any in particular, as Romantic Warrior has been $3 into $2.40 favourite post-barrier draw. California Spangle holds the second line of betting from $2.20 out to $2.70, while Golden Sixty is the outsider of the three at around the $3 mark. All other gallopers are at big double figure odds, with the leading chance of the outsiders seemingly Beauty Joy at $34.
Stewards’ Cup Speedmap analysis

The speed map looks pretty much identical to the Hong Kong Mile with California Spangle the obvious leader in the small field, with stablemate Beauty Joy likely to chime in with him at some stage to sit outside the speed. Romantic Warrior will be looking to keep Golden Sixty in the pocket to his inside after drawing barrier four, as you’d have to imagine Karis Teetan wouldn’t want to give California Spangle too much of a head start. Vincent Ho looks to have his hands full to make sure Golden Sixty gets off the rails late in the piece; however he should have a gun run in transit provided he gets clear. Panfield and Russian Emperor look the clear backmarkers in the race while Waikuku may look to be more positive as well with Ryan Moore flying over to take the ride.

Continue reading for HorseBetting’s top selections and $100 betting strategy for the 2023 Stewards’ Cup
Stewards’ Cup Classic form & preview

In a race where you can pick any of the three superstars of the Hong Kong turf, we’ve landed with Romantic Warrior in the 2023 Stewards’ Cup. His win in the Hong Kong Cup was nothing short of spectacular, taking on plenty of quality gallopers in the process and absolute destroyed his opposition. He won by more than four lengths going away from his rivals and never looked in any doubt from his mid-field run in transit. He ran time and now finds himself back in trip to the 1600m; however, this doesn’t bother us, as he’s had over a month between runs and a barrier trial win down the Sha Tin straight course that suggests he’s still flying for trainer Danny Shum. Going back through his form, his only career loss was to California Spangle in last year’s Hong Kong Classic Cup over 1800m, where only the barrier truly got him beat. This son of Acclamation has barely put a foot wrong since his debut and we think he’s a special talent.

Golden Sixty is the main danger for us after the Hong Kong Mile effort, as Vincent Ho would probably like his time over again. Beauty Joy took off mid-race spelling the end for Golden Sixty as he was left flat-footed for a couple hundred metres turning for home, meanwhile California Spangle and Beauty Joy sprinted clear full of running. He picked up again late to run boldly into second and would’ve gone close to winner provide he sat any closer to the speed. Vincent Ho will be tracking California Spangle everywhere he goes on Golden Sixty from barrier two and if he’s in striking distance with some clear running, Golden Sixty is clear still good enough to win his seventh Group 1 in Hong Kong.

No disrespect to Hong Kong Mile winner California Spangle; however, we feel Romantic Warrior and Golden Sixty are ready to take him down here. There’s no doubt he can break their hearts again though. His pattern is so favourable against horses that can have a tendency to get back in the field, but with just the seven acceptors here, we can’t see Karis Teetan and Vincent Ho allowing Zac Purton to dictate terms without them having something to say about it. He’ll lead for a long way out and could kick clear to score again, but we’ve got him marked as the outsider of the trio despite his Group 1 quality resume. It’s more about the quality of this contest, rather than an indictment of his ability. He’s a winning hope again here.

Panfield is one of the outsiders at $101 that take can possibly get into the minor money on Sunday as well. He’s 2400m back to the mile; however, his two tick-over trials between runs has us believing he’s travelling well and despite his best trip being 2000m plus, he’s been running on with vigour in those barrier trials efforts, a win would shock, the top four though? Not so much.
2023 Stewards’ Cup tip & best bets

Selections:

2
ROMANTIC WARRIOR

bet365
silks1
GOLDEN SIXTY

unibet
silks3
CALIFORNIA SPANGLE

Ladbrokes
silks7
PANFIELD

Palmerbet

$100 betting strategy
$100 Win #2 Romantic Warrior @ $2.40 with Neds