Saturday 2/4/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Turfway Park - Race #7 - Post: 8:55pm - Optional Claiming - 10.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $78,000 Class Rating: 107

Rating:

#5 NAUTILUS (BRZ) (ML=4/1)
#8 CURRENT (ML=12/1)
#4 BLUEGRASS PARKWAY (ML=8/1)


NAUTILUS (BRZ) - A horse coming back this quickly after a good race is a good sign. It looks like Ramos had to know this horse on January 7th when riding him for the first time. Back aloft again today. Even though he isn't from around here, when a thoroughbred has finished in the money at a major foreign track he will usually give a good account of himself soon after shipping. Coming off a fourth place finish at Turfway Park, some may pass this horse. I'm not. He just missed hitting the show spot, and has respectable morning line odds today. CURRENT - This thoroughbred likes to win at different tracks. The switch in venue today may be a wake up call. Based on morning drills, I look for this gelding to run a big race. You'll be making money left and right by turning your bankroll onto this jock/handler combination. BLUEGRASS PARKWAY - I like to wager on this handicapping angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a good contest within the last thirty days. Landeros rode this horse for the first time last time out and comes right back in today's race. PP lines show this horse with three improving Equibase speed figures. Landeros should be on a live one today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 VERSTAPPEN (ML=7/2), #3 TIBERIUS MERCURIUS (ML=4/1),

VERSTAPPEN - This less than sharp equine ran a run-of-the-mill speed fig in the last race. He shouldn't improve and will likely lose in today's race running that number. TIBERIUS MERCURIUS - This horse hasn't been close in either of his last couple of efforts.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - NAUTILUS (BRZ) - Has the class to stalk the pace then make a move on the turn, taking control as they roll in the homestretch.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #5 NAUTILUS (BRZ) to win. Have to have odds of at least 5/2 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	5 with [4,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [4,5,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[4,5,8] with [4,5,8] with [1,4,5,7,8] with [1,4,5,7,8] Total Cost: $36

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 9 - Stakes - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $175000 Class Rating: 95

KITTEN'S JOY S. - GRADE 3 THREE YEAR OLDS. FREE NOMINATION BY SATURDAY, JANUARY 21. $1,750 TO ENTER. $175,000 GUARANTEED. A SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATION FEE OF $100 MAY BE MADE PRIOR TO CLOSING TIME OF ENTRIES. AFTER PAYMENT OF 1% TO ALL OWNERS OF HORSES FINISHING SIXTH THROUGH LAST, 62% OF THE REMAINING PURSE SHALL BE PAID TO THE OWNER OF THE WINNER, 20%

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 CONGRUENT 5/1
# 4 MAJOR DUDE 5/2
# 2 SOUZAK (FR) 8/1

CONGRUENT has a solid shot to take this race. Ran a sharp last race. With a formidable 88 average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's competition. I can't pass on this colt given one of the strongest rider and handler combos on the grounds. MAJOR DUDE - He ought to be given a shot given the very good speed figures. Trainer boasts very strong win numbers at this distance and surface. SOUZAK (FR) - This colt is a key contender based on his earnings per start in turf route contests. Must be given consideration given the class of races run lately.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Coast To Coast Pick 5 - Race #2 - Post: 4:38pm - Stakes - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $100,000 Class Rating: 107 Megahertz S. SA (Grade 3)

Rating:

#2 HAMWOOD FLIER (IRE) (ML=4/1)
#3 NADETTE (FR) (ML=5/1)
#4 CLOSING REMARKS (ML=7/2)


HAMWOOD FLIER (IRE) - I expect a lot from this race horse. Her speed figures under similar conditions are tops in this field. Don't look any further. This pony has my money. Way too much early speed. This trainer brings horses to the grass conditioned to win, winning over 20 pct of the time under similar conditions. The last speed fig of 111 is the top last race speed rating in the field. NADETTE (FR) - Rispoli rode this horse for the first time last out and comes right back in today's race. Based on the TrackMaster data I've reviewed, this filly should run well off the vacation. CLOSING REMARKS - This mare has been working well, and the recent bullet work says she's primed for a top effort today. Solid average class rating on this horse. Should have the capability to run well on the turf.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 SCHOOL DANCE (ML=3/1), #1 BAY STORM (ML=5/1), #8 OAKHURST (ML=8/1),

SCHOOL DANCE - Pedestrian speed fig in the last race at Santa Anita at 1 1/4 miles. Don't think this steed will improve too much today. BAY STORM - This horse ran a disappointing speed figure last race out. She shouldn't show signs of improvement and will likely get beat in today's race running that rating. OAKHURST - This thoroughbred just hasn't looked sharp of late. Common speed rating last race out at Santa Anita at 1 1/4 miles. Don't feel this vulnerable equine will improve too much in today's event.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - NADETTE (FR) - This filly looks prime for a big run today. She recorded a nice final fraction at Santa Anita on October 29th.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #2 HAMWOOD FLIER (IRE) to win if you can get odds of 4/1 or more

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fair Grounds

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - SA - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $35000 Class Rating: 103

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $20,000 OR LESS IN 2021 - 2023. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE DECEMBER 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 FIREWATER JAKE 8/1
# 2 EMERALD FOREST 6/5
# 5 ALL WEST 9/5

FIREWATER JAKE looks to be a respectable contender and is a very good value bet given the line. Overall the speed figs of this horse look very good in this race. Could beat this group of animals given the 99 Equibase speed fig earned in his last outing. This gelding has some longshot angles I like to bet on. EMERALD FOREST - Lately Gutierrez has been scorching which may give the edge to this gelding. Has decent early speed and will probably fare soundly against this field. ALL WEST - Always good to invest in a handler with this kind of strong win percentage - 25 percent - at this distance & surface. Ran a sharp last race.

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Race of the Week: Holy Bull at Gulfstream | Saturday, Feb. 4

February 1, 2023 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
The first of 3 graded stakes in the Florida Derby series gets underway Saturday in the $250,000 Grade 3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park. Named for the 1994 Florida Derby winner and eventual Horse of the Year, the Holy Bull matches Triple Crown aspirants at 1-1/16 miles around 2 turns. It will be the longest race to date for 5 of the 8 entrants.

Players at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET can enjoy up to a $10 money-back special on Holy Bull Stakes win bets if their win bets finish second or third.

Field Depth:
None of the runners entered has won a stakes to date, while LEGACY ISLE, MR BOB and LORD MILES are listed stakes-placed. There is no decided class edge amongst these.

Pace:
WEST COAST COWBOY and CYCLONE MISCHIEF have the most pace of the inner-drawn runners, while LEGACY ISLE is a candidate to make the front while attempting to cross over that pair into the clubhouse turn. This does not look like a fast pace, and it's a configuration heavily favorable to those who can save ground and run near the front.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

LORD MILES: Rallying third-place finisher in the local Mucho Macho Man Stakes (a 1-turn mile), galloping out as well as any past the wire. He has a bullet workout since then, bred for the additional distance and makes a highly notable jockey switch to leading rider Irad Ortiz, Jr. Sure seems like all the chips are in the middle of the table.

WEST COAST COWBOY: No match for LEGACY ISLE in allowance race in November and looks to be second fiddle in the Saffie Joseph Jr. barn to LORD MILES.

SHADOW DRAGON: $375K juvenile purchase with modest pedigree was more of a win-early bidder at age 2, but NY-bred didn't make it to the races until September and has been absent since lackluster stakes try at Aqueduct in October. Hot jockey-trainer combo in Jose Ortiz-Bill Mott, but would be a surprise.

CYCLONE MISCHIEF: Likely favorite has won 2 of last 3, including fast 1-turn mile allowance over the track January 8. Good draw, good running style for this trip. Beaten less than 3 lengths by Instant Coffee, who since their matchup returned to also win the Grade 3 Lecomte at Fair Grounds.

MR BOB: Could show more early speed with the addition of blinkers after a troubled start in the Mucho Macho Man. But patient-riding Joel Rosario might not be the perfect fit for that. Note Irad Ortiz Jr. jumps off to pilot LORD MILES.

LEGACY ISLE: Rocketed from the rail in the Mucho Macho Man and was first under the wire, only to be disqualified for interference in a marginal call by the stewards. No one's beaten him to the wire yet in 3 starts, but there's serious question he'll be as effective around 2 turns based on very slow final quarters in the 1-turn races. Only 1 work since the Mucho Macho Man indicates that race might have knocked him out a bit more than his returning rivals.

IL MIRACOLO: Ran extremely hard chasing wicked pace in Mucho Macho Man Stakes and gave way late. A more one-paced kind of tempo could keep him in the mix much longer this time, so he's a candidate to improve his placing at a price. Love the fact he's had 3 works since his last race vs. 2 or 1 for his previous rivals in that race. His prior attempts over the track all have been quite solid.

ROCKET CAN: Wide draw will provide some challenge, but he handled such a hurdle in his Churchill maiden win in October. Trainer Bill Mott coming off a huge Saturday at Gulfstream with 3 wins, including $3 million Pegasus World Cup. Seemed to improve in all 4 starts at 2. Colt who edged him in last allowance bid since returned to run a modest third, splitting the field in the Lecomte at Fair Grounds.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
CYCLONE MISCHIEF has a win over the track, a fantastic draw and a prime running style for this distance / track configuration.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
IL MIRACOLO is the pick to rebound at a very nice number.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$60 win IL MIRACOLO. $10 exacta key-box IL MIRACOLO with LORD MILES and CYCLONE MISCHIEF ($40).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jon White: Status Quo for Kentucky Derby Top 10

February 1, 2023 | By Jon White

Arabian Knight retains the top spot on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week after a dominant victory in Oaklawn Park’s Grade III Southwest Stakes last Saturday (Jan. 28) for Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, trainer of Triple Crown winners American Pharoah and Justify.

What did Baffert think of Arabian Knight’s Southwest? Baffert said the colt’s performance was “like an American Pharoah-type race.”

Wow. That’s high praise.

The Southwest was contested in the sort of weather that makes umbrellas important. Dashing to the front at once, Arabian Knight and Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez set the pace on the sloppy track.

After Arabian Knight had a two-length cushion with a furlong to go, he increased his advantage thereafter to win by 5 1/2 lengths in 1:43.50 as the 2-5 favorite.

Red Route One, trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, trailed through the early furlongs and rallied for second at 15-1 while never threatening the winner. Frosted Departure ended up third at 46-1.

Corona Bolt, sent off as the 5-2 second favorite, finished sixth while racing around two turns for the first time. He was two for two going into the Southwest following wins in a Churchill Downs maiden special weight sprint and Fair Grounds’ six-furlong Sugar Bowl Stakes.

Arabian Knight’s Southwest victory was all the more impressive because the Kentucky-bred Uncle Mo colt was returning from a layoff and had been shipped to Arkansas from California, plus he was racing around two turns for the first time and competing on a wet track for the first time. This was Arabian Knight’s first start since his dazzling 7 1/4-length win in his career debut as a 3-5 favorite vs. maidens in a seven-furlong race at Keeneland on Nov. 5.

After Arabian Knight recorded a 97 Beyer Speed Figure in his debut triumph, the $2.3 million auction purchase posted a 96 in the Southwest.

Coming down the lane in the Southwest, Arabian Knight looked to be making a paddling motion with his left foreleg. This brought to mind Vekoma, a noted “paddler” from a few years ago.

Daily Racing Form’s Jay Privman wrote this following Vekoma’s victory in the Grade II Blue Grass Stakes in 2019: Vekoma “has awkward action -- he paddles badly with his left front -- but he can run.”

Even with his paddling, Vekoma managed to win the Blue Grass by a decisive 3 1/2 lengths. Indeed, though Vekoma was a paddler, all he did was win six of eight lifetime starts and get a 110 Beyer Speed Figure when he won the Grade I Carter Handicap by 2 1/4 lengths on a sloppy track and a 104 Beyer when he won the Grade I Met Mile on dry land by 1 1/4 lengths.

In other words, being a paddler did not preclude Vekoma from running fast and winning at the Grade I level. That suggests one should not necessarily assume paddling would keep Arabian Knight from running fast and winning at the Grade I level. While there are those who did not particularly like what Arabian Knight was doing with his left front leg in the Southwest during the stretch run of the Southwest, it bears repeating that Baffert said that he saw the colt’s performance as being American Pharoah-like.

Baffert now has won the Southwest a record six times, including both divisions in 2012. Below are his Southwest winners:

2023 Arabian Knight (97 Beyer Speed Figure)
2022 Newgrange (89)
2013 Super Ninety Nine (102)
2012 Castaway (92)*
2012 Secret Circle (102)*
2010 Conveyance (97)

*Run in divisions

How many of Baffert’s Southwest winners prior to this year went on to win the Kentucky Derby? The answer is none. Nevertheless, Arabian Knight remains in the top spot on my Top 10.

Johnny V. now has won the Southwest three times. That puts him in a tie with Larry Snyder and Rafael Bejarano for most Southwest victories by a jockey.

Not only does Arabian Knight occupy the top spot on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week after taking care of business in the Southwest, the rankings are exactly the same as they were last week.

Daily Racing Form’s Brad Free has provided an update concerning No. 3 Cave Rock, who as of Feb. 1 had not had a published workout since finishing second as the 2-5 favorite in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on Nov. 4. Prior to his BC Juvenile setback, Cave Rock had won three straight by margins of 5 1/4 lengths or more. Cave Rock captured both the Grade I Del Mar Futurity and Grade I American Pharoah Stakes last year for Baffert.

Baffert had said a while back that Oaklawn Park’s Grade II Rebel Stakes on Feb. 25 was the target for Cave Rock’s first 2023 race. But Free reported this week that “time may have run out” for the Kentucky-bred Arrogate colt to make his return in the Rebel, with Baffert acknowledging “it’s getting tight.”

Cave Rock has been galloping, according to Baffert, who added that “the rain set me back a little bit” with him.

My Kentucky Derby Top 10 for this week is below:

1. Arabian Knight
2. Forte
3. Cave Rock
4. Banishing
5. Cyclone Mischief
6. Instant Coffee
7. Giant Mischief
8. Arabian Lion
9. Verifying
10. Hejazi

Bubbling Under My Top 10 (in alphabetical order):

Angel of Empire
Blazing Sevens
Curly Jack
Damon’s Mound
Disarm
Faustin
Geaux Rocket Ride
Harlocap
Hit Show
Kingsbarns
Litigate
National Treasure
Newgate
Please Be Nice
Practical Move
Red Route One
Reincarnate
Shopper’s Revenge
Signator
Tapit Trice
Worcester
Victory Formation

HOLY BULL STAKES SELECTIONS

Eight are slated to clash in Gulfstream Park’s Grade III Holy Bull Stakes at 1 1/16 miles this Saturday (Feb. 4).

It appears to me that Cyclone Mischief is going to be extremely tough to beat. He comes off a sparkling 5 3/4-length win in a one-mile allowance/optional claiming affair at Gulfstream on Jan. 8, an effort that produced a 90 Beyer Speed Figure.

Dale Romans trains Cyclone Mischief, a Kentucky-bred Into Mischief colt.

“I think he’s one of the best 3-year-olds in the country, and he’s training like one,” Romans was quoted as saying of Cyclone Mischief on the Gulfstream Park website. “There are a lot of good horses out there, but we’re in a good spot right now.”

Cyclone Mischief has quite a Beyer advantage in the Holy Bull. The next-best figure to his 90 by a Holy Bull entrant is Rocket Can’s 82, which he registered the last time he raced at Churchill Downs on Nov. 26. Rocket Can lost by a half-length when finishing second beneath the Twin Spires that day in a 1 1/16-mile allowance/optional claiming contest.

Other than Cyclone Mischief and Rocket Can, no one in the Holy Bull has recorded a Beyer Speed Figure higher than a 75.

Hall of Famer Bill Mott trains Rocket Can.

Mott also will be represented in the Holy Bull by Shadow Dragon, who hasn’t competed since finishing sixth in the Sleepy Hollow Stakes for New York-breds at Aqueduct on Oct. 30. In his only other start, Shadow Dragon came from far back to win a six-furlong maiden special weight race for New York-breds by three-quarters of a length on Sept. 29.

Lord Miles came on in the lane to finish third in Gulfstream Park’s one-mile Mucho Macho Man Stakes on New Year’s Day. He had raced once prior to that, winning a six-furlong maiden special weight race at Gulfstream by 5 3/4 lengths.

A bullet five-furlong workout in :59.60 at Palm Meadows last Friday (Jan. 27) could be a hint that Lord Miles is going prove a tough customer in the Holy Bull while racing with blinkers for the first time. Also, it’s a plus for Lord Miles that his Holy Bull pilot will be four-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.

Legacy Isle has finished first in each of his three lifetime starts. However, he was disqualified and placed second for causing interference in the Mucho Macho Man.

Below are my selections for the Holy Bull Stakes:

1. Cyclone Michief
2. Lord Miles
3. Rocket Can
4. Legacy Isle

ROBERT B. LEWIS STAKES SELECTIONS

The record for most Santa Anita’s Robert B. Lewis Stakes victories by a trainer is held by Baffert. He’s won it 10 times (General Challenge in 1999, Domestic Dispute in 2003, Pioneerof the Nile in 2009, Flashback in 2013, Dortmund in 2015, Mor Spirit in 2016, Mucho Gusto in 2019, Thousand Words in 2020, Medina Spirit in 2021 and Messier in 2022).

Baffert is a cinch to get his 11th Lewis win this Saturday (Feb. 4). Only four are entered in the Grade III, 1 1/16-mile race. Baffert trains all four.

Has one trainer ever had every single horse entered in a race? Perhaps it’s happened sometime in the past, but I’m not aware of it.

I do know of one instance when a major race in the United States did have just one trainer in it.

Bud Delp trained the only horse who started in the Grade I Woodward Stakes at Belmont Park in 1980. That was Spectacular Bid’s historic walkover.

“There hadn’t been a ‘walkover’ in a major stake in the U.S. since Coaltown’s bloodless triumph in the Edward Burke Handicap at Havre de Grace on April 23, 1949,” Joe Hirsch wrote in the American Racing Manual.

However, unlike Baffert training all of the entrants in this year’s Robert B. Lewis Stakes, Spectacular Bid was not the only horse who had been entered in the $217,500 Woodward of 1980. Dr. Patches, Temperence Hill and Winter’s Tale also were entered, but all three scratched, thus creating the walkover. All Spectacular Bid had to do in order to collect $73,300 was to “walk” the 1 1/4-mile distance of the race.

“Normally, the winner’s share of the $217,500 purse would be $130,500,” Hirsch wrote, noting that New York Racing Association rules called for only 50% of the winner’s share to be paid in a walkover, with “the remainder reverting to the racing association.”

While the 1980 Woodward was a walkover, Spectacular Bid did a lot more than merely walk. It was decided that “the Bid” would have what essentially was a 1 1/4-mile public workout between the seventh and eighth races on the Belmont Park card.

All by himself and always in hand, Spectacular Bid covered the 1 1/4 miles in a 2:02 2/5, excellent time under the circumstances. Jockey Bill Shoemaker was in the saddle. Spectacular Bid’s final quarter-mile was clocked in :24 1/5.

Shoemaker rode a plethora of all-time greats besides Spectacular Bid, such as Kelso, Dr. Fager, Swaps, Forego, Buckpasser, Damascus, Round Table and John Henry.

After Shoemaker had become a trainer following his phenomenal career as a jockey, he once told me, without equivocation, that Spectacular Bid was the best horse that he ever rode. I asked Shoemaker why that was so.

“Because he had the most gears of all the horses I ever rode,” Shoemaker said.

Getting back to this Saturday’s Robert A. Baffert Stakes, officially known as the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, I’m going with Arabian Lion on top.

Arabian Lion kicked off his racing career with a front-running three-length win in a six-furlong maiden special weight race last Oct. 9 at Santa Anita (92 Beyer Speed Figure). In his next start, he recorded a 93 Beyer when second to Giant Mischief in a seven-furlong allowance/optional claiming race on Nov. 4 at Keeneland. In that Nov. 4 race, though Arabian Light did not win, he finished a whopping 17 1/2 lengths in front of third-place Old Alliance.

Most recently, Arabian Lion laid an egg as the 2-5 favorite in the Grade II Los Alamitos Futurity at 1 1/16 miles on Dec. 17. He finished fifth, 12 lengths behind the victorious Practical Move.

Baffert recently told me that I can go ahead and draw a line through Arabian Lion’s loss at Los Al. Baffert didn’t say why, but Arabian Lion’s five-furlong bullet drill in :58.80 at Santa Anita last Sunday would seem to suggest that the Kentucky-bred Justify colt might well rebound and win the Lewis.

Keep in mind that Arabian Lion will be racing with blinkers again in the Lewis. He’s one for one with blinkers, zero for two without.

Newgate goes into the Lewis off a good try when the runner-up in Santa Anita’s Grade III Sham Stakes at one mile on Jan. 8. He lost by a neck to the Baffert-trained Reincarnate.

Worchester should not be taken lightly in the Lewis even though he’s a maiden. He received an 85 Beyer Speed Figure when fourth in a six-furlong maiden special weight sprint at Santa Anita on Dec. 26. Worchester then improved dramatically to a 94 Beyer when second to $3.55 million Hejazi in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight race on a wet track rated as good Jan. 15 at Santa Anita.

Hard to Figure is making his first start since he ran fifth in Del Mar’s Grade III Bob Hope Stakes on Nov. 20 (Newgate finished second). He won the Capote Stakes at Los Alamitos in September.

Below are my selections for the Robert B. Lewis Stakes:

1. Arabian Lion
2. Newgate
3. Worcester
4. Hard to Figure

WITHERS STAKES SELECTIONS

A half-dozen 3-year-olds are entered in Aqueduct’s Grade III Withers Stakes at 1 1/8 miles this Saturday (Feb. 4).

I will be surprised if the winner isn’t either Arctic Arrogance or Hit Show.

Arctic Arrogance ran second in Aqueduct’s Jerome Stakes at one mile on a wet track listed as good Jan. 7. The New York-bred Frosted colt also was the runner-up in the Grade II Remsen Stakes at 1 1/8 miles on a sloppy track Dec. 3 at the Big A for trainer Linda Rice. Arctic Arrogance will be racing with blinkers for the first time in the Withers.

Hit Show was scratched from last Saturday’s Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park (probably a good move in light of Arabian Knight’s winning performance) to go instead in the Withers for trainer Brad Cox.

A Kentucky-bred Candy Ride colt, Hit Show has won two of three career starts. He’s coming off a 3 1/2-length win in a one-mile allowance/optional claiming race on Dec. 17 at Oaklawn.

Below are my selections for the Withers Stakes:

1. Arctic Arrogance
2. Hit Show
3. Ninetyprcentmaddie
4. General Banker

NTRA REVEALS FIRST POLLS FOR 2023

The first editions of this year’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll and Top 3-Year-old Poll were announced Monday.

The Top Thoroughbred Poll is indicative of who might be crowned a divisional champion and, moreover, Horse of the Year. Eligible journalists and broadcasters each week submit their Top 10 horses, with points awarded on a 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 points basis.

The 2023 Top Thoroughbred Poll concludes after the Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita on Nov. 3-4.

Voting in the final Top 3-Year-Old Poll of 2023 will be released following the Grade I Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park on June 10.

Art Collector, who won Gulfstream Park’s Grade I Pegasus World Cup by 4 1/2 lengths in a 15-1 upset, is No. 1 on the Top 10 in the first Top Thoroughbred Poll of 2023, which is listed below:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 280 Art Collector (17)
2. 198 Taiba (8)
3. 146 Defunded
4. 140 Atone
5. 133 Country Grammer (3)
5. 101 Cody’s Wish
7. 88 Nest (1)
8. 73 Elite Power
9. 60 Queen Goddess
10. 49 Clairiere

The Top 10 in the final NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll of 2022:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 360 Flightline (36)
2. 286 Malathaat
3. 237 Olympiad
4. 178 Modern Games
5. 168 Life Is Good
6. 138 Cody’s Wish
7. 96 Epicenter
8. 94 Taiba
9. 73 Goodnight Olive
10. 67 Nest

FIRST 3-YEAR-OLD POLL TOPPED BY FORTE

Forte, the Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male of 2022, won the Grade I Hopeful Stakes, Grade I Breeders’ Futurity and Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year. He is No. 1 on the Top 10 in the first NTRA Top 3-Year-Old Poll of 2023:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 274 Forte (15)
2. 265 Arabian Knight (13)
3. 209 Instant Coffee (1)
3. 157 Cave Rock
5. 95 Victory Formation
6. 79 Blazing Sevens
7. 71 Havnameltdown
7. 69 Reincarnate
9. 47 National Treasure
10. 41 Wonder Wheel

CONGRATULATIONS TO CURLIN

As a racehorse, Curlin was Horse of the Year in both 2007 and 2008. He was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2014.

As a sire, Curlin made history when the 2022 Eclipse Awards were announced last week, according to BloodHorse’s Eric Mitchell.

Curlin became the first sire in the 52-year history of the Eclipse Awards to be represented by three individual champions in one year -- Nest (champion 3-year-old filly), Malathaat (champion older dirt female) and Elite Power (champion male sprinter).

There have been 14 stallions represented by two individual Eclipse Award winners in the same year. Listed alphabetically, they are:

Alydar (Alysheba and Easy Goer in 1988)

Cee’s Tizzy (Gourmet Girl and Tiznow in 2001)

City Zip (Dayatthespa and Work All Week in 2014)

Cox’s Ridge (Life’s Magic and Vanlandingham in 1985)

Deputy Minister (Go for Wand and Open Mind in 1989)

Into Mischief (Authentic and Gamine in 2020)

Mr. Prospector (Conquistador Cielo and Gold Beauty in 1982)

Nureyev (Miesque and Theatrical in 1987)

Quality Road (Abel Tasman and Caledonia Road in 2017)

Sadler’s Wells (High Chaparral and Islington in 2003)

Saint Ballado (Ashado and Saint Liam in 2005)

Seattle Slew (Swale and Slew o’ Gold in 1984)

Seeking the Gold (Flanders and Heavenly Prize in 1994)

Smart Strike (Curlin and Englinish Channel in 2007)

ECLIPSE AWARD PREDICTIONS SCOREBOARD

In terms of my annual Eclipse Award predictions for 2022, it turned out that I had 16 correct and one wrong.

My lone incorrect prediction was in the male turf category. I predicted Rebel Romance. The winner was Modern Games.

The first year that I made Eclipse Award predictions for Xpressbet.com was for racing conducted in 2011. Now including 2022, my Eclipse Award predictions have proven to be correct 92.1% of the time:

2011: 15 correct, 2 wrong
2012: 16 correct, 1 wrong
2013: 16 correct, 1 wrong
2014: 17 correct, 0 wrong
2015: 14 correct, 3 wrong
2016: 16 correct, 1 wrong
2017: 16 correct, 1 wrong
2018: 16 correct, 1 wrong
2019: 15 correct, 2 wrong
2020: 15 correct, 2 wrong
2021: 16 correct, 1 wrong
2022: 16 correct, 1 wrong

Total thru 2021: 188 correct, 16 wrong

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TIPS PICKS & SAM HOUSTON RACE PARK LIVE TIPSHEET
BY NICK TAMMARO TRACK ANNOUNCER
SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 4TH

RACE PICKS SUGGESTED WAGERS ($10 OR LESS)
1 6-5-3-2
PROPERLY CONNECTED improved last time out
$10 Daily Double 6-4
TOTAL: $10
2 4-6-7-3
The main speed in this bunch is
KELLEY SAID READY
$5 Pick Four 4 with 7 with 5 with 4,5
TOTAL: $10
3 7-6-4-1
TIZ MAGIC starting her 2023 in this spot
$10 Exacta 7-6
TOTAL: $10
4 5-6-4-1
The seventh furlong helps CRAZY LEGS HIRSCH
$10 Win on #5
TOTAL: $10
5 4-5-3-2
LUNA S goes 2nd off a layoff as the main speed
$1 Trifecta 4 with 5 with ALL
And $0.50 Trifecta 4 with ALL with 5
TOTAL: $9
6 3-1-2-8
They’ll have to catch NOOGE to get the money
$1 Superfecta 3 with 1 with 2,8 with 2,6,7,8
TOTAL: $6
7 8-1-2-6
AWESOME SUNSET improved last time out
$10 Daily Double 8-8
TOTAL: $10
8 8-4-2-1
TAKE CHARGE WOMAN the one to catch in here
$10 Win on #8
TOTAL: $10
9 1-5-4-6
Trouble dogged STILL OF THE NIGHT last time
$0.50 Trifecta 1 with 4,5,6 with ALL
TOTAL: $10.50

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Delta Downs
Don's Picks

Don's Picks For Saturday, February 4
Race # Picks ALT
Race #1) 3-1-5-1a 7
Race #2) 2-5-1-7 6
Race #3) 4-3-5-1 8
Race #4) 4-3-2-8 6
Race #5) 3-4-8-2 7
Race #6) 6-3-7-1 5
Race #7) 7-3-6-8 1
Race #8) 4-9-6-3 5
Race #9) 3-1-2-5 7
Race #10) 3-1-4-7 8
Race #11) 1-2-7-9 8
Race #12) 2-4-7-6 1

PP: R10, #3 Takes Two To Tango (8-1) Best early speed; Shortening up; Working well.


Early Pick 4 (R2-R5): 1-2-5 / 3-4 / 2-3-4 / 3-4-8 Cost $27
Late Pick 4 (R6-R9): 2-3-4-8 / 3-6-7 / 3-7 / 4 Cost $12
Late Pick 4 (R9-R12): 1-3 / 1-3-4 / 1-2 / 2-4-7 Cost $18

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ultimate Capper
Holy Bull Stakes Entries & Free Picks [2023]
By Reggie Garrett

1st – 6 Legacy Isle
2nd – 4 Cyclone Mischief
3rd – 8 Rocket Can
4th – 1 Lord Miles

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Oaklawn Park Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #5 Mean Jakey 5-2 R Diodoro C A Torres
2 #8 Guarded 10-1 R Moquett R Bejarano
3 #1 Mount Craig 8-5 W I Mott F Arrieta
4 #2 Stellar Lady 2-1 K G McPeek D Cabrera
5 #3 Cactus 3-1 N W Casse R Santana, Jr.
6 #1 Mr. Tip 9-2 M Villafranco I Castillo
7 #2 Gun Pilot 7-5 S M Asmussen R Santana, Jr.
8 #3 St Andrews 8-1 M Villafranco I Castillo
9 #3 Ice Orchid 4-1 J A Ortiz R Santana, Jr.
10 #2 Stuck N Snow 7-2 D K Von Hemel L S Quinonez

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Charles Town Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #2 Odina 7-5 O L Figgins, III F Peltroche
2 #6 Mi Gusto Es 9-5 A M Rodriguez O Bocachica
3 #1 Jaccaci 8-5 R W Brown C E Lopez
4 #5 Dial Her 7-5 J C Runco W Cullum
5 #6 Calera Love 2-1 C G Pickett J Montano
6 #1 Miss Chamita 8-5 N L Cash J M Lewis
7 #7 All Worked Up 4-1 A Farrior A Bocachica
8 #6 Stylish Paint 5-1 R W Brown C E Lopez

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Racing Dudes Delta Downs Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #3 Copter 9-2 A Landry J Stokes
2 #2 Half Full 7-2 E Ramirez V Del-Cid
3 #4 Tincandance 7-2 J Lara J Dominguez
4 #4 Madame Jane 4-1 B A Brinkman T L Pompell
5 #3 Guitar Slim 5-2 G A Bryant H Torres
6 #3 Late September 2-1 J M Camejo J L Rodriguez
7 #7 Free Like a Girl 5-2 C D Pomier P L Cotto, Jr.
8 #4 Ova Charged 3-5 J M Camejo J L Rodriguez
9 #1 Free Drop Maddy 5-2 W B Calhoun R Gutierrez
10 #4 Prizeless 5-1 K Broberg C McMahon
11 #1 Who Took the Money 7-2 W B Calhoun D L Parker
12 #4 Dixie Street 2-1 S Alfortish T J Hebert

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Racing Dudes Fair Grounds Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #3 Gravy Hound 7-2 J R Felks J Graham
2 #2 Emerald Forest 6-5 R Faucheux R Gutierrez
3 #3 Wupkar 7-5 W B Calhoun B J Hernandez, Jr.
4 #7 Ghostly Girl 9-5 K G McPeek B J Hernandez, Jr.
5 #9 Nomadic Pride 5-2 T M Amoss E Morales
6 #8 Michelles Lil Star 7-2 W B Calhoun C J Lanerie
7 #3 Beleout 5-2 C Dandridge Jr. J Graham
8 #3 Hidden Enemy 7-2 S M Asmussen B J Hernandez, Jr.
9 #1 Isn't It Time 4-1 J O Duhon A Green

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Golden Gate Fields Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #3 Into Bourbon 5-2 J R Thomas W Antongeorgi III
2 #5 Bourbon Glaze 7-2 J Wong W Antongeorgi III
3 #1 El Bromista 7-2 B D Wright A Ayuso
4 #4 Austrian Navy 8-5 J Wong E Gonzalez
5 #3 Escape Free 5-2 M Badilla K Radke
6 #7 Quiet Charm 6-1 S S Perez F T Alvarado
7 #1 O'Neill's Legacy 9-5 J Wong E Gonzalez
8 #3 Lmlooknformischief 9-2 F Taylor I Orozco
9 #3 Zippy Baby 9-2 T McCanna F T Alvarado

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Racing Dudes Gulfstream Park Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #3 Vladislav 5-1 A Sano I Ortiz, Jr.
2 #3 Katz That Gal 7-2 J F D'Angelo J L Ortiz
3 #3 Clever Enough 5-2 J F Orseno I Ortiz, Jr.
4 #5 Demurely 4-5 S A Joseph, Jr. E J Zayas
5 #2 Gipsy Chief 6-1 B A Lynch J L Ortiz
6 #6 Super Chow 6-5 J Delgado C Sutherland
7 #4 Samburu 6-1 W I Mott I Ortiz, Jr.
8 #7 Shesterkin 8-5 T A Pletcher I Ortiz, Jr.
9 #1 Candidate 3-1 A Delacour T Gaffalione
10 #3 Atomically 3-1 T A Pletcher J L Ortiz
11 #7 Cairo Consort 2-1 T A Pletcher I Ortiz, Jr.
12 #1 Lord Miles 4-1 S A Joseph, Jr. I Ortiz, Jr.