Wednesday 2/15/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Tampa Bay Downs Tip Sheet - February 15

Feb. 14, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 69% of the time at this track.
RACE #1 $12,500 CLAIMING
1 MILE 40 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:28 PM ET

BEST BET: #4 RISK VS REWARD

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 8-5 4 Risk Vs Reward S Camacho
PLACE 3-2 3 Winters Ghost J C Ferrer
SHOW 9-2 6 Aries Reigns S Marin
WILD CARD 8-1 1 Papa Jimmy J Alicea

ALTERNATE 1 15-1 2 Commander Keith M Rowland
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 5 Tapintoyourbeer A S Arroyo

* EXACTA: 4-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/6 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX


RACE #2 $12,500 CLAIMING
5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 12:58 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 3-1 2 Imperial Bird S Marin
PLACE 2-1 6 Roger McQueen P Morales
SHOW 5-2 5 Caminero A S Arroyo
WILD CARD 5-1 1 Bode by You A A Gallardo

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 4 Classic Bet S Camacho
ALTERNATE 2 15-1 3 Thousand Loves G Garcia

* EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX


RACE #3 $16,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 1:26 PM ET

BEST BET: #13 TUMIGA

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 13 Tumiga J A Batista
PLACE 5-2 7 The Swayze Express M Jimenez
SHOW 3-1 4 G. T. Oh R D Allen Jr.
WILD CARD 9-2 9 Noble and Kind S Camacho

ALTERNATE 1 4-1 12 Fisherman Oscar A Quinonez
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 10 Frenchy Departed C E Rojas

* EXACTA: 13-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX, 4-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/7/13 BOX, 4/7/9 BOX


RACE #4 $12,500 CLAIMING
6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:53 PM ET

BEST BET: #8 MONEY SONG

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-2 8 Money Song C E Rojas
PLACE 5-2 6 Duke Skywalker A S Arroyo
SHOW 5-1 7 Wootdareitis L Sanchez
WILD CARD 9-2 2 Awesome Enough M Meneses

ALTERNATE 1 10-1 3 Liveforthesong R D Allen Jr.
ALTERNATE 2 9-2 4 Lil Annie Rose L Mbatha

* EXACTA: 8-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/7/8 BOX, 2/6/7 BOX


RACE #5 $20,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING
1 1/16 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 2:20 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 9-5 6 Dark and Fitzy D Centeno
PLACE 9-2 2 Ambushed S Camacho
SHOW 10-1 1 Delta Ridge J C Ferrer
WILD CARD 9-2 9 Mintenon J A Batista

ALTERNATE 1 7-2 7 Kyles Degree A S Arroyo
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 4 Magna Ruler C E Rojas

* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 1/2/9 BOX


RACE #6 $27,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
1 MILE 40 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:47 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7-2 2 Willow Wood D Centeno
PLACE 3-1 6 My Man Vito P Morales
SHOW 10-1 5 Savvy Layla S Camacho
WILD CARD 5-1 1 Confessor M Meneses

ALTERNATE 1 5-1 3 King of Hollywood A S Arroyo
ALTERNATE 2 5-1 4 Caxambas Candy A Suarez

* EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX


RACE #7 $16,000 CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:14 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 4-1 1 Hereby S Camacho
PLACE 9-2 5 Joe Brains A Suarez
SHOW 7-2 8 Pivotal Run H R Diaz Jr.
WILD CARD 8-1 4 Eden Paradise M Meneses

ALTERNATE 1 9-2 3 Angels Magic A Quinonez
ALTERNATE 2 6-1 2 Canyouhearmenow E M Walker

* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/8 BOX, 4/5/8 BOX


RACE #8 $27,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING
7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:45 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-2 6 Send for Me H R Diaz Jr.
PLACE 7-2 2 St. Pats Day A A Gallardo
SHOW 3-1 1 All Good Times P Morales
WILD CARD 4-1 7 Clays Moon Stone S Camacho

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 3 Asters dOro D Centeno
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 4 Dont Tapthebrakes A S Arroyo

* EXACTA: 6-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/6 BOX, 1/2/7 BOX


RACE #9 $16,000 CLAIMING
1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:15 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 2-1 2 Blue Neith A A Gallardo
PLACE 9-2 5 Water Witch A Suarez
SHOW 8-1 1 Suwannee Chick H R Diaz Jr.
WILD CARD 9-2 7 Lilys Lead P Morales

ALTERNATE 1 3-1 3 Wasser A Quinonez
ALTERNATE 2 7-2 11 Dynas Honor P Morales

* EXACTA: 2-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 1/5/7 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gulfstream Park Hotlist - February 15

Feb. 14, 2023

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

Hot List Key:

A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

1st race – (3) Pardon Moi tries Tapeta after some disappointing tries on dirt and turf and may find success at this reduced level. (2) Lead Performer gets Irad and may respond to a class drop. (7) Avatal Hero was second at this level and should be in the picture once again today. (5) Pink Party Pants has some speed and could hang on at this level. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-5-7. Doubles: 2-3-5-7 with 2-5-7-8.

2nd race – (2) Tapsasional had some trouble when only beaten two lengths last time and can make amends today. (8) Charlie G will be dangerous for a claiming tag. (5) Morning Stride has not raced since April but can be a factor if there’s no rust from the layoff. (7) Journeyman will be closing quickly at the end. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-5-7-8.

4th race – (4) Carabino won his last two starts and should make a smooth switch to Tapeta off the De La Corda claim. (7) D Coldest can be a factor at this level. (3) Majestic Pharoah adds blinkers and is worth a look. (5) Bourbon Therapy moves up off a win and a claim and could be a threat. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 4-7. Exactas: 4-7 over 3-5 and 3-5 over 4-7.

7th race – (4) Honesto missed by a neck at this level last time and deserves top billing here. (3) Souper Royal Moon might perk up on Tapeta. (2) Vladislav lost by a neck and adds Irad for this trip. (1) Cape Cod has plenty of experience on Tapeta and can make his presence felt. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box1-2-3-4.

9th race – (8) No Action (B) was a game second when bumped late last time. Gets the victory here. (2) Run for Cover was second on turf and looks like the main rival. (4) Meetmeatthebeach is an interesting firster for Casse. (1) Our Fortune Cookie is another first-time starter who could be a contender. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-4-8.
No. Letter/Last race Today’s race Comment
(8) No Action B, 1/18 9 GP Was a troubled second last time

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Charles Town

PURCHASE

Charles Town - Race 3	Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double (3-4) / Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)
Maiden Claiming $5,000 • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4-6 • CR: 45 • Purse: $13,300 • Post: 7:57P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Class. ASHARA is the Dominant Class of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ASHARA: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Horse has the highest TrackMast er Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MY SILVER LADY: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
8	ASHARA	3/1	2/1
3	MY SILVER LADY	6/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	MY SILVER LADY	3	6/1	Front-runner	0	0	83.4	21.8	9.3
8	ASHARA	8	3/1	Front-runner	65	60	58.4	52.2	49.2
4	OUR GOLDEN COLLEEN	4	8/1	Front-runner	46	42	47.2	28.6	19.6
2	TAKE CHARGE LISA	2	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	62.5	33.6	26.6
6	GREAT DEVOTION	6	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	48	35	39.8	35.4	28.9
7	JO AMY	7	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	56.6	25.0	14.5
5	MAKO MISS	5	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	34.6	16.3	6.8
1	AMERICAN LEGACY	1	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	27.1	7.7	0.0

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn NationalPURCHASE

Penn National - Race 4	W-P-S/ Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) / Pick 4 (Races 4-5-6-7)
SO $16,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 76 • Purse: $18,000 • Post: 7:28P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $16,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JANUARY 15 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. FED CHAIR is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * FED CHAIR: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in t he top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. WONDER WATER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in th e top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
8	FED CHAIR	3/1	3/1
5	WONDER WATER	5/2	6/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	FED CHAIR	8	3/1	Front-runner	78	78	64.4	69.2	65.7
4	KAZ MUNNINGS	4	7/2	Stalker	65	68	70.6	58.6	48.1
6	JUMP FOR THE WIN	6	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	62	63	73.0	61.6	48.1
1	NAZARENO	1	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	80	64	63.5	61.7	53.2
5	WONDER WATER	5	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	82	74	57.6	71.2	68.7
3	RISEN SAVIOR	3	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	75	63	57.2	65.0	58.5
7	FREEDOM'S START	7	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	62	62	42.7	28.4	15.9
2	BAILEY COFFEE	2	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	54	57	41.7	32.2	18.2

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - SO - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $18200 Class Rating: 93

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,500 OR LESS SINCE FEBRUARY 15, 2022 OR CLAIMING PRICE $16,000. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 15 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000. ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 JUNE GLOOM 5/1
# 4 MOSQUITO FLEET 4/1
# 3 EL MAESTRO 9/2

My selection here is JUNE GLOOM. He has recorded quite good numbers under today's conditions and ought to fare well versus this group of horses. Has competitive speed figures and has to be considered for a bet in this race. Have to look at solely on class, with some of the strongest class figures of this field. MOSQUITO FLEET - Garnered a very good Equibase Speed Figure last time out. Handler boasts strong win numbers at this distance and surface. EL MAESTRO - Will probably go to the lead and could never look back.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #4 - Post: 2:03pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $33,700 Class Rating: 63

Rating:

#6 ROLLIN SO PERFECT (ML=8/1)
#2 UNBRIDLED CAUSE (ML=5/2)
#5 INTO GOLD (ML=2/1)
#4 LIL RICKYS JEWEL (ML=3/1)


ROLLIN SO PERFECT - The January 16th affair at Mahoning Valley Race Cour was at a class level of (74). Dropping down in class ranks drastically, so he should be in a good spot. He'll be laying in perfect stalking position, right behind the front runners. PP lines show this pony with 3 improving speed ratings. Reyes should be on a live one in this race. UNBRIDLED CAUSE - Entered an Allowance race at Mahoning Valley Race Cour in the last race and raced on the mud finishing sixth. Will most certainly do better right here. Entered last at Mahoning Valley Race Cour in a race with a class number of 74. Dropping a significant amount in class rating in today's event puts him in a solid position right here. This gelding ran a real solid affair back on January 16th but bounced when coming back off that effort. Today should be different; I expect a return to form. INTO GOLD - This horse coming off a good try in the last month is a contender in my book. I like this gelding. Has the highest earnings per start in this contest. LIL RICKYS JEWEL - I expect this race horse to surprise some railbirds today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 WHISKEY HELPS (ML=6/1),

WHISKEY HELPS - While Equibase's speed ratings are strong, I would totally disregard the high one from the January 26th in the mud. Some thoroughbreds just run well on the off going. Recorded a pedestrian speed fig in the last race in a $15,000 Maiden Claiming race on January 26th. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that rating.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #6 ROLLIN SO PERFECT on the win end if we get at least 6/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $24000 Class Rating: 67

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 AVATAL HERO 3/1
# 11 JAZZY JAS 20/1
# 5 PINK PARTY PANTS 8/1

My selection for this event is AVATAL HERO. Put up a formidable Equibase Speed Fig in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this affair. Is a solid contender based on figures earned lately under today's conditions. This filly with Ortiz in the saddle makes her a contender. JAZZY JAS - Exhibits the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 61 speed figure which is one of the strongest in this group. Earned a reliable Equibase speed fig in the latest race. Can run another good one in this race. PINK PARTY PANTS - Is worth careful consideration and may be a wager - strong Speed Figures (57 average) at today's distance and surface as of late.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race #1 - Post: 11:55am - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 49

Rating:

#4 LA CHANCE (ML=5/1)
#2 BABKA (ML=2/1)


LA CHANCE - This thoroughbred should make a move at the top of the lane. Great late speed Ran last race out against a much better field at Belmont at the Big A. The move to a lower level should suit her well. Trejos and Romero perform well when they combine forces. It's hard to beat a +210 ROI for a rider and conditioner. Romero is giving this one Lasix for the 1st time. Nice move. BABKA - When this rider and trainer combine forces you have to take a look. Wolfsont and Ness have been terrific together. You have to like that most recent race rating, 42, which is the top most recent race figure of this bunch. Off the board finish in the last race at Laurel was better than it looked on paper. She improved position down the homestretch and never gave up.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 THEYCALLMELEE (ML=3/1), #1 LEAPING FOR CANDY (ML=4/1), #7 TELL ME IM AWESOME (ML=9/2),

THEYCALLMELEE - A bit of a lackluster try when this filly finished fourth. LEAPING FOR CANDY - The speed rating in the last race doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class rating of today's event. Mark this thoroughbred as a likely underlay.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #4 LA CHANCE on the nose if you can get odds of 7/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

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Handicapper Sonny LaFouchi(aka The LEGEND)!

Free Winners for Wednesday, February 15th 2023 from THE LEGEND!
FREE HORSE PICKS
CHARLES TOWN
RACE #7
TIME: 9:49 PM EST
PICK: BET #1 Just Murphy 7/2 odds to win @ Bovada

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1. NSA(The Legend) NBA – Bulls +2.5
2. Gameday Network NBA – Cavaliers +2
3. Sports Action 365 CBB – Murray St +1
4. Vegas Line Crushers CBB – NC Greensboro +1
5. VegasSI CBB – Va Commonwealth -8.5
6. Sam Casey NBA – Lakers -4
7. Henry Brown Sports NBA – Mavericks +5.5
8. Winning Big Sports CBB – Tennessee -3
9. Lou Panelli CBB – Georgia Tech +7.5
10. Platinum Info Club CBB – Clemson -10
11. William E. Stockton NBA – Thunder -10
12. Vincent Pioli NBA – Hawks -3
13. Steve “Scoop” Kendall CBB – George Washington pk
14. SCORE CBB – Mississippi +10
15. Tony Campone NBA – Cavaliers over 216.5
16. Chicago Sports Group CBB – Clemson -10
17. Hollywood Sportsline CBB – Louisville over 127.5
18. VIP Action CBB – Mercer +3
19. South Beach Sports CBB – East Carolina +10
20. LV Sports Commission CBB – Murray St +1
21. NY Players Club NBA – Cavaliers +2
22. Fred Callahan NBA – Celtics -8
23. LV Private CEO Club NBA – Grizzlies under 240
24. Michigan Sports CBB – Tulsa +4.5
25. National Consensus Report CBB – Boise St -3.5

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Bobby Conn

Feb 15 '23, 7:00 PM in 59m
NCAA-B | George Mason vs George Washington

Play on: [B]George Mason +1

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ProSportsPicks

Feb 15 '23, 7:00 PM in 59m
NCAA-B | St Bonaventure vs Fordham

Play on: [B]Fordham -4

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Black Widow

Feb 15 '23, 7:00 PM in 59m
NCAA-B | East Tennessee State vs Western Carolina

Play on: [B]Western Carolina -2

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Dustin Hawkins

Feb 15 '23, 7:00 PM in 59m
NCAA-B | Richmond vs La Salle

Play on: [B]La Salle +1

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Timothy Black

Feb 15 '23, 7:00 PM in 59m
NCAA-B | Alabama vs Tennessee

Play on: OVER 144 -110

1* Best Bet on Alabama/Tennessee over