Monday 2/20/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-20-2023, 05:51 AM

Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Monday, February 20
Posted on February 19, 2023 by David Aragona

RACE 4: JELLY NOUGAT (#5)

Win for Gold (#3) strikes me as an untrustworthy favorite in this conditioned claimer. He has developed a history of failing to finish off his races, often noticeably shortening stride in the final furlong. That’s exactly what happened last time when he got a great trip stalking winner Ikigai’s moderate pace, yet couldn’t even hang on for a trifecta placing. He’s now dropping back down in class as trainer Linda Rice acknowledges that she might have made an error claiming this running back for $35k. He also could have a difficult trip coming given the presence of Fenway (#4). This 5-year-old could complicate the tasks of all of the other speed types in this race, as he’s a run off front-runner. This level might be a bit too advanced for him, but I don’t want to ignore his presence in this race. The kind of early speed that he possesses could discourage the other forward types, which is what happened when he won back in December. He’s going to be a big price and could take these a long way. Yet I do expect the race to come apart at some point, and the most likely beneficiary of that scenario is Jelly Nougat (#5). This horse was ridden too aggressively last time at Parx when sent on a mission to stay in contact with the leaders, always being hustled. I think he’s a more proficient sprinter than he displayed that day, and his only other recent sprint effort came in a Grade 2 stakes. These connections have sent some live runners to this circuit and he’s getting significant class relief as he drops in for the $25k tag.

RACE 6: WUDDA U THINK NOW (#2)

Dr. Ardito (#4) figures to go favored in this Haynesfield as he makes his stakes debut. This lightly raced 5-year-old has done little wrong despite a few stops and starts to his career. He returned from yet another layoff last time and put forth his usual strong effort to extend his winning streak to five. Yet he did get a very good trip, as his uncoupled stablemate Nabokov did more of the hard work on the front end and arguably ran the better race. Now he gets his first stakes test, so he has to come off Lasix. Chad Brown, who is known for great statistics, is surprisingly 3 for 34 (9%, $0.83 ROI) with last-out winners switching off Lasix in dirt stakes over 5 years. I think there are reasons to be skeptical of this gelding, and his main rival seems like a better option. Wudda U Think Now (#2) is seeking his third stakes victory in a row after taking down the Alex M. Robb and Say Florida Sandy already this winter. His recent Beyers in the high-80s seem a little light compared to the morning line favorite, but his TimeformUS Speed Figures of 123 and 116 make the horse to beat. Those numbers account for fast paces in each of those last two races. He has always done his best work over this surface, and seems to be thriving now that he’s making use of his early speed again. Dylan Davis has ridden him aggressively in those last two starts, and he figures to be sent forward to make the lead over main pace rival Sea Foam once again.

RACE 7: PRACTICAL COACH (#6)

No Burn (#7) could go favored here off his 4-length victory at the N2X level in his prior start in January. He got a strong 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance, but he’s facing a different set of circumstances this time. While he did set an honest pace that day, he got a muddy track which he clearly handles and was beating a pretty weak field for that level. He drew well outside this time for the turnback to a mile, but I think this is a more interesting race than defaulting to him. Market Alert (#3) finally showed some subtle improvement in his third start off the claim for Rob Atras last time. He was aggressively ridden to push eventual winner Wudda U Think Now on the lead and gamely battled back for second in the late stages. Perhaps it’s a slight negative that he now comes back for this $80k tag rather than running in the Haynesfield, but the distance may have something to do with that. He’s a contender with a similar performance. I also think we could see a better effort from another New York-bred, Lobsta (#1). His return last time felt like a prep, as he was used to chase the fleet Pirate Rick in the early stages before fading while racing off the rail against an inside bias. He’s won at this distance before and should be forwardly placed from this rail draw with the switch to an aggressive rider. My top pick is Practical Coach (#6), who is a new face at this level in New York. Trainer Butch Reid tends to send live runners to this circuit, going 10 for 61 (16%, $2.17 ROI) at NYRA tracks on dirt over the past 5 year, with 61% of those starters hitting the board. This horse might look a cut below these at first glance, but he showed some potential when finishing fifth in the Grade 3 Smarty Jones last fall. Since then he’s improved in his last couple starts, just missing against claimers two back before running deceptively well at Laurel last time. That Jan. 14 race featured a pretty strong field, and he was game all the way through the stretch to finish fourth. Horses have run back out of that race to improve, including runner-up Southern District, who just missed in his next start on this circuit. This son of Practical Joke figures to appreciate the one-turn mile, and it strikes me as a good sign that he’s so ambitiously placed here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-20-2023, 05:54 AM

Kristpicks

aqueduct racetrack - monday, february 20, 2023 // post time - 1:20 p.m. Est

- daily selections for february 20 -

race 1:
4 - simple sugar 7-2
2 - gagliano 2-1
1 - infringement 7-2

race 2:
2 - reigning crick 8-5
5 - true empress 3-1
1 - game theory 8-1

race 3:
5 - rhubarb martini 7-2
2 - synonymous 4-1
6 - carly hustle 8-1

race 4:
1 - catching cupid 8-1
3 - win for gold 9-5
7 - charger 5-1

race 5:
5 - harlan's bond 8-1 - best bet
7 - clover street 2-1
6 - northway 5-2

race 6:
1 - full moon fever 12-1
4 - dr ardito 6-5
2 - wudda u think now 9-5

race 7:
4 - king kumbalay 12-1 - longshot
3 - market alert 3-1
7 - no burn 2-1

race 8:
3 - looms boldly 5-2
7 - please be nice 4-5
1 - gold in them hills 15-1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-20-2023, 05:55 AM

Santa Anita Park Tip Sheet - February 20

Feb. 19, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 67% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $40,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 1/8 MILES ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 3:30 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	6-5	4	Our Shining Light	L Dettori
PLACE	3-1	5	General Mathis	L Contreras
SHOW	6-1	6	Bender	H I Berrios
WILD CARD	12-1	1	Explain This Audit	K Frey

ALTERNATE 1	3-1	2	Oncoming	U Rispoli
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	3	Rimprotector	G Franco

* EXACTA: 4-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX

RACE #2 $67,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:59 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-5	2	Sonoran	J R Velazquez
PLACE	3-1	5	Castle Island	J J Hernandez
SHOW	4-1	6	Don Corleone	F Prat
WILD CARD	12-1	1	Dazzlemesilver	K J Desormeaux

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	4	Bring Him Home	H I Berrios
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	3	Xander	E A Maldonado

* EXACTA: 2-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/5/6 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX

RACE #3 $25,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:29 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 NAISMITH

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	1	Naismith	J J Hernandez
PLACE	5-2	5	Flint Stroll	F Prat
SHOW	4-1	3	Arrest	K J Desormeaux
WILD CARD	6-1	8	Ko Samui	R Curatolo

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	7	Rosenquist	E A Maldonado
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	6	Grazen Sun	E K Rojas Fernandez

* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 3/5/8 BOX

RACE #4 $100,000 STAKES 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:59 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-5	5	The Chosen Vron	H I Berrios
PLACE	7-2	4	Leyas Candy	J J Hernandez
SHOW	5-2	1	Coalinga Road	J R Velazquez
WILD CARD	20-1	2	Finneus	R A Vazquez

ALTERNATE 1	20-1	3	Club Cal	G Franco

* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/5 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX

RACE #5 $67,000 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 5:29 PM ET
BEST BET: #2 ADMIRAL HALSEY

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	2	Admiral Halsey	J R Velazquez
PLACE	6-1	7	Dancing Rinca	J J Hernandez
SHOW	4-1	3	Admiralty Place	G Franco
WILD CARD	12-1	5	Vancougar	H I Berrios

ALTERNATE 1	4-1	8	Princip	M E Smith
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	6	Nashobas Joy	L Dettori

* EXACTA: 2-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/7 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX

RACE #6 $72,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:02 PM ET
BEST BET: #1 SUNRISE JOURNEY

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	1	Sunrise Journey	E A Maldonado
PLACE	4-1	5	I Know Cash Flow	A Alsagoor
SHOW	4-1	6	Big Talker	R Curatolo
WILD CARD	5-2	4	Jack Sixpack	K Frey

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	3	Smile for Glory	J J Hernandez
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	2	Suzie Qzz Brother	A Aguilar

* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 4/5/6 BOX

RACE #7 $45,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 6:34 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	1	Cuban Crisis	L Dettori
PLACE	4-1	5	Real Fire	E A Maldonado
SHOW	5-1	6	Precocious Times	J J Hernandez
WILD CARD	3-1	8	Classy	F Prat

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	2	Rosy Edge	G Franco
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	9	Map to My Heart	R A Vazquez

* EXACTA: 1-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 5/6/8 BOX

RACE #8 $72,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 7 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 7:06 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	6-5	3	Princess Adaleigh	R A Vazquez
PLACE	4-1	5	Trouville	A Aguilar
SHOW	4-1	2	Youteyourhonor	J J Hernandez
WILD CARD	3-1	4	Bowl of Cherries	B Harvey

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	6	Kristis Tiger	K Frey
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	1	Act of Serendipity	H I Berrios

* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX

RACE #9 $75,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DOWNHILL TURF - POST TIME: 7:38 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	8	Toms Beauty	H I Berrios
PLACE	3-1	4	Phenom	J J Hernandez
SHOW	5-1	5	Secrets Told	K Frey
WILD CARD	6-1	1	Symphony Perfect	J R Velazquez

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	3	Xmas Surprise	F Prat
ALTERNATE 2	12-1	7	Unbridled Mary	U Rispoli

* EXACTA: 8-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/8 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX

RACE #10 $18,000 CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 8:09 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	1	Double Fantasy	R A Vazquez
PLACE	3-1	6	Head Start	R Gonzalez
SHOW	3-1	8	La V.	G Franco
WILD CARD	12-1	11	Never Sway	A Alsagoor

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	10	Drizella	F Orduna-Rojas
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	4	Roses R Blue	L Contreras

* EXACTA: 1-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX, 8-11 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/8 BOX, 6/8/11 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-20-2023, 05:55 AM

Fair Grounds Tip Sheet - February 20

Feb. 19, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 65% of the time at this track

RACE #1 $5,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE 70 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:15 PM ET
BEST BET: #3 WHATS UP SWEETS

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-5	3	Whats Up Sweets	R Gutierrez
PLACE	3-1	4	Mary Jack	J Riquelme
SHOW	9-2	1	Quinn Murphy	S Barandela
WILD CARD	7-2	5	Izeonpoint	A Beschizza

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	6	Havinfunyet	B Culp
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	2	Glance	A Green

* EXACTA: 3-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/4 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX

RACE #2 $12,500 MAIDEN CLAIMING 1 MILE 70 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:45 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-1	5	Spinstrawinto Gold	J Graham
PLACE	8-1	4	Summer Lover	J Loveberry
SHOW	3-5	6	Astern Banker	B J Hernandez Jr.
WILD CARD	5-1	2	Sailors Return	E Morales

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	3	Uncle Jett	B Culp
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	1	Ice Vortex	O Chavez

* EXACTA: 5-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX

RACE #3 $53,000 ALLOWANCE 1 MILE 70 YARDS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:15 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	3	Wicked Rose	B J Hernandez Jr.
PLACE	4-1	1	Play Mo	C J Hernandez
SHOW	3-1	4	Drewhustle	C J Lanerie
WILD CARD	9-2	5	Bind Faith	T L Pompell

ALTERNATE 1	7-2	6	Drilling Report	M Murrill
ALTERNATE 2	6-1	2	Oak Hill Solution	E Nieves

* EXACTA: 3-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/4 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX

RACE #4 $5,000 CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:45 PM ET
BEST BET: #8 POINT OF VICTORY

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	6-1	8	Point of Victory	T J Hebert
PLACE	6-1	3	For Real Alice	C J Hernandez
SHOW	5-1	6	Heart That Binds	J L Rodriguez
WILD CARD	3-1	2	Bellamy Cay	R Gutierrez

ALTERNATE 1	4-1	7	Strummer	G Melancon
ALTERNATE 2	4-1	5	Explosively Hot	M Murrill

* EXACTA: 8-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/8 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX

RACE #5 $52,000 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING 1 MILE ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:15 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-5	2	Nosilverspoonshere	C J Lanerie
PLACE	8-1	3	Shes Gone dWild	J Graham
SHOW	8-1	6	Shellis Angel	M Murrill
WILD CARD	6-1	1	Special Connection	M Pedroza Jr.

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	5	Viola Star	E Nieves
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	7	Spellbinding	T S Albert

* EXACTA: 2-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX

RACE #6 $51,000 ALLOWANCE 1 MILE ON THE TURF - POST TIME: 4:45 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	10-1	5	Twirling Cat	J Loveberry
PLACE	3-1	7	Lead Me	C J Lanerie
SHOW	5-1	10	Top Ten Duchess	B Culp
WILD CARD	10-1	6	Classical Magnolia	M Murrill

ALTERNATE 1	5-1	8	Graceleadsushome	J Graham
ALTERNATE 2	5-1	1	Ms. Cajun Queen	D L Parker

* EXACTA: 5-7 BOX, 7-10 BOX, 10-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 5/7/10 BOX, 6/7/10 BOX

RACE #7 $30,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:15 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	4-1	5	Rock With You	D L Parker
PLACE	5-1	2	Rumble Ready	D Cohen
SHOW	5-1	4	Kislovodsk	O Chavez
WILD CARD	8-1	9	Justforspeightofit	M Murrill

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	3	Boxster	J Loveberry
ALTERNATE 2	9-2	7	Golden Flash	J Graham

* EXACTA: 5-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/4/5 BOX, 2/4/9 BOX

RACE #8 $30,000 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:45 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	2	Frog Town	D L Parker
PLACE	4-1	5	Money Run	B J Hernandez Jr.
SHOW	5-1	1	Big Beemster	M Murrill
WILD CARD	4-1	3	Counterspy	A Beschizza

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	6	Machine Gun Man	E Nieves
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	7	Born Flawless	J Graham

* EXACTA: 2-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/5 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX

RACE #9 $10,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 6:15 PM ET
BEST BET: #5 ISNT IT TIME

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	7-2	5	Isnt It Time	E Nieves
PLACE	9-2	1	Madisons Screen	A Green
SHOW	5-1	3	Avie J	A Beschizza
WILD CARD	8-1	6	Sheeza Priority	J Loveberry

ALTERNATE 1	9-2	7	Boston Millie	E M Murray
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	2	War Tourist	D L Parker

* EXACTA: 5-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-20-2023, 05:56 AM

Oaklawn Park Tip Sheet - February 20

Feb. 19, 2023

Historically our BEST BETS have finished in the money 66% of the time at this track.

RACE #1 $8,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 1:30 PM ET
BEST BET: #8 TRUMPENCE

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-5	8	Trumpence	C A Torres
PLACE	5-2	7	Home Base	R Santana Jr.
SHOW	3-1	1	Stormin Hongkong	R Zimmerman
WILD CARD	12-1	4	Released	E Gonzalez

ALTERNATE 1	10-1	6	Cabot	K R Jordan
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	5	Morning Snow	R E Eramia

* EXACTA: 8-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/7/8 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX

RACE #2 $16,000 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:01 PM ET
BEST BET: #4 HAIL COLUMBIA

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	4	Hail Columbia	C A Torres
PLACE	6-1	7	Vegas Blue	K J Asmussen
SHOW	3-1	3	Star Pose	M Michel
WILD CARD	10-1	5	Bayshore Foxes	F Arrieta

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	10	Aintnosweetie	D Cabrera
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	6	Essential Bella	C Bailey

* EXACTA: 4-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/7 BOX, 3/5/7 BOX

RACE #3 $35,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 2:32 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	8	Love My Jimmy	R Zimmerman
PLACE	5-2	6	Colonel Bowman	I Castillo
SHOW	4-1	1	Sidetown	C A Torres
WILD CARD	10-1	5	Chapel Barn	E Medellin

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	4	Black Storm	T Baze
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	2	Mystery Man	K R Jordan

* EXACTA: 8-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/6/8 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX

RACE #4 $30,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:03 PM ET
BEST BET: #6 TOWN CHAMP

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	5-2	6	Town Champ	F Arrieta
PLACE	7-2	1	Arthurian	C A Torres
SHOW	4-1	5	Drenas Star	N Juarez
WILD CARD	15-1	9	Lansdowne	R Bejarano

ALTERNATE 1	8-1	8	Grapnel	E Gonzalez
ALTERNATE 2	10-1	2	Title Shot	K R Jordan

* EXACTA: 6-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/6 BOX, 1/5/9 BOX

RACE #5 $40,000 MAIDEN CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 3:35 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	3	Bet Hes Ready	R Santana Jr.
PLACE	5-2	5	Life On the Nile	N Juarez
SHOW	4-1	9	Guided Arrow	E Gonzalez
WILD CARD	6-1	6	Cyclone	R Bowen

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	7	Contrabandista	F Arrieta
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	2	Infiltrator	M Michel

* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-9 BOX, 9-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/9 BOX, 5/6/9 BOX

RACE #6 $12,500 CLAIMING 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:07 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	10	Lapis Lazuli	R Bejarano
PLACE	6-1	4	Lord Grantham	N Juarez
SHOW	9-2	1	Happy Boy Rocket	C A Torres
WILD CARD	3-1	8	Immoral	T Baze

ALTERNATE 1	15-1	9	The Five Bs	E Medellin
ALTERNATE 2	20-1	6	Practical Man	R Bowen

* EXACTA: 10-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/4/10 BOX, 1/4/8 BOX

RACE #7 $42,000 STARTER ALLOWANCE 1 1/16 MILES ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 4:38 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	3-1	7	Disc Jockey	C A Torres
PLACE	8-1	6	Fifty Cent Dollars	N Juarez
SHOW	5-2	2	Intrepid Heart	I Castillo
WILD CARD	7-2	1	Hellorhighwater	M Garcia

ALTERNATE 1	12-1	5	Thought	R Zimmerman
ALTERNATE 2	8-1	10	What a Country	R Bejarano

* EXACTA: 7-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/6/7 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX

RACE #8 $104,000 ALLOWANCE 6 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:10 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	2-1	3	Pattern Bet	R Bejarano
PLACE	8-5	4	One Way Or Another	M Garcia
SHOW	15-1	7	Run Fearless	C A Torres
WILD CARD	12-1	1	Tapit Right	F Arrieta

ALTERNATE 1	6-1	9	Choctaw Charlie	E Gonzalez
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	6	Blow Sum Smoke	D Cabrera

* EXACTA: 3-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/7 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX

RACE #9 $12,500 MAIDEN CLAIMING 5 1/2 FURLONGS ON THE DIRT - POST TIME: 5:42 PM ET

PICK ORDER	M/L	P#	HORSE NAME	JOCKEY

WIN	9-5	3	Still On the Books	F Arrieta
PLACE	4-1	6	Aux Arcs	C A Torres
SHOW	12-1	5	El Mongo	R Santana Jr.
WILD CARD	5-1	1	Impoverished	I Castillo

ALTERNATE 1	20-1	8	Hacker	A Pusac
ALTERNATE 2	15-1	2	Five O Fox	T Wales

* EXACTA: 3-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-20-2023, 05:57 AM

*******************
Aqueduct Hotlist - February 20

Feb. 19, 2023

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
2^nd race [Alw 50000s, 6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-20-2023, 05:59 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 2/20/23

February 20, 2023
“What You Need to Know” - Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Our Shining Light
Backups/savers: 5-General Mathis

Forecast: Our Shining Light is lightly-raced, improving, and ready to tackle first level allowance company after a pair of nice wins, one a maiden tally up north over a mile on the all-weather surface and then most recently a starter allowance turf sprint here last month. The Irish-bred gelding is unproven at this nine furlong trip but should easily inherit the role as the controlling speed and have every chance to wire the field. However, at 6/5 on the morning line, there won’t be much wagering value available. For protection, you may want to include on a backup ticket General Mathis, a winner over this course and distance last month from starter’s company with a career top number. The main concern is that he’s a deep closer in a race that projects to have moderate to slow early fractions.

__________________________________________________ ___________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 2: Post: 12:59 PT Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Senoran
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Senoran probably can’t beat a stakes quality maiden but so far in two starts that’s pretty much all he’s faced. The Bob Baffert-trained colt chased home the highly regarded Faustin in his debut in December and then couldn’t cope with the exceptionally quick Geaux Rocket Ride in his second career outing last month. There doesn’t appear to be anything in this field he can’t handle, so at a very short price he’s a logical no value rolling exotic single.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 3: Post: 1:29 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-What a Dude; 1-Naismith
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: 4-What a Dude makes his California debut for new trainer Phil D’Amato after tossing in a pair of clunkers on wet tracks in New York before his arrival. His Eastern turf form charts extremely well in this company on this circuit, so let’s put him on top in this straight $32,000 claimer over a mile on grass. Also worthy including on a ticket is Naismith. The Richard Mandella-trained son of Medaglia d'Oro stretches out again after finishing a willing fourth in a starter’s allowance sprint last month, while two runs back he broke his maiden in clever fashion at this trip on grass at Del Mar. He’s not as fast on pure numbers as our top pick but could be dangerous from the rail if handed the role as the controlling speed.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-The Chosen Vron
Backups/Savers: none

Forecast: The Chosen One made hard work of it when winning the Cal Cup Sprint by a desperate head at 2/5 last month and probably will leave at similar odds today when stretching out to a mile in the Tiznow Stakes for state-bred older horses. A winner of nine of 13 career starts and beaten just once in six outings over the Santa Anita main track, the Eric Kruljac-trained son of Vronsky is assured a soft pace scenario in this five runner field and will be extremely hard to beat either as the controlling speed or from a soft stalking position outside. He’s a no value short price rolling exotic single in a race that should otherwise be left alone.

__________________________________________________ ___________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 5: Post: 2:29 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Admiralty Place; 2-Admiral Halsey
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Admiralty Place, in the frame in both of his local outings over a distance of ground since arriving from Ireland, shortens to a sprint and looks well-spotted to finally earn his diploma in his eighth career start. Prior to his importation from Europe, the five-year-old gelding was most comfortable going short and in fact ran in several competitive events with big fields that produced Timeform ratings good enough to beat this field. Look for him to be doing his best work late. Admiral Haley, now in the Peter Miller barn, has been away since last May but shows a San Luis Rey Downs work tab that should have him fit enough off the bench. The son of War Front has run well over this course and distance in the past. Both should be used in rolling exotic play.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 6: Post: 3:02 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-I Know Cash Flow ; 1-Sunrise Journey
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: We’ll try to survive and advance going two deep in this allowance optional claiming extended dash for California-bred older horses. I Know Cash Flow shows the route-to-sprint angle that we like, gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Alsagoor, and is a two-time winner over the Santa Anita main track. He has four easy breezes since raced in a healthy work pattern at San Luis Downs for trainer Peter Miller and projects to draft into a comfortable pace pressing position. Sunrise Journey clearly is the fastest in the field based on speed figures, but he was a voided claim for $20,000 last time out is a similar affair Jan. 20 and shows only one slow five furlong workout in the interim. He’ll likely be gunned from the rail using gate-to-wires strategy and will be tough to catch with anything close to his best effort.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 7: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Precocious Times; 1-Cuban Crisis
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Precocious Times finished a better-than-looked fifth, breaking slowly and then closing a gap in a very strong straight maiden affair in her U.S. debut more than a year ago, but then had to be stopped on. She returns in a realistic high-price maiden claiming spot under top rider Juan Hernandez with a useful series of training track workouts that should have her plenty fit. If she returns as well as she left, she’ll be hard to beat. Cuban Crisis shows the always critical maiden-to-maiden-claiming class drop, and from the rail draw in this six furlong dash the Mark Glatt-trained filly seems likely to enjoy an ideal, second flight, ground saving. journey. She is quite competitive based on speed figures, so with the switch to Frankie and at 7/2 on the morning line she is very much a “must use.” We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two, with preference on top to Precocious Times.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 8: Post: 4:06 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Princess Adaleigh
Backups/Savers: none

Forecast: Princess Adaleigh lost a toughie when missing by a half-length while nearly three lengths clear of the others in a similar first level allowance sprint for fillies and mares last month in a race that earned her a career top speed figure. Today’s extra furlong should produce a softer early pace for the daughter of Goldencents, who projects to enjoy a very easy time of it on the front end. The blinkers off angle adds fuel to the fire, so at 6/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower the Vladimir Cerin-trained filly is a logical short price rolling exotic single.

__________________________________________________ ___________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 9: Post: 4:38 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Tom’s Beauty; 4-Phenom
Backups/savers: 5-Secret’s Told; 1-Symphony Perfect

Forecast: Tom’s Beauty was visually impressive beating a first level allowance grass field sprinting on the flat a couple of weeks ago and returns off short rest while moving up a notch and, this time, trying her luck on the Hillside Course. She is a progressive sort with further room for improvement, and with plenty of speed signed on she’s likely to settle in the second flight and then cut loose straightening for home. At a reasonable 4-1 on the morning line she’s worth a play, the quick turnaround notwithstanding. Phenom got cooked on a hot pace in a similar affair last month as the strong favorite but seems certain to stick better today if the early splits are reasonable. Secrets Told is solid on numbers and has excellent tactical speed. The Phil D’Amato-trained mare usually prefers to run second or third rather than win but on her best day she can be right there. Symphony Perfect has faced group quality competition overseas and rates something of a look in this, her U.S. debut. Her work tab is light, and she lands the disadvantageous rail, but she’s worth tossing in, at least as a saver.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
__________________________________________________ ____________________________

RACE 10: Post: 5:09 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Double Fantasy; 8-La V.
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Double Fantasy stayed on willingly but couldn’t quite get there when second as the favorite in a productive abbreviated sprint for restricted (nw-3) $20,000 claiming fillies and mares last month and not much more will be needed to handle this assignment. The rail sprinting always is a concern but if she leaves with her field the lightly raced Tapiture mare should be in the first flight throughout and have every chance. La V. can be plenty quick at times, but she has had difficulty of late sealing the deal under pressure close home. She exits a series of straight claimers, should appreciate this softer conditioned field, and with patient handling might produce more late punch.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-20-2023, 06:00 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

February 20, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
Tonight, Yonkers Raceway has an 11-race program scheduled. The feature goes in Race 8, an Open Handicap Pace with a $36,000 purse. Also, Race 8 is the start of the $1.00 Pick 4 sequence, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 8

1-Oakwoodnitownit IR (4-1)-Gets a new pilot in Zeron who steered on 12-5 beating this kind. Not sure why Kakaley kept the pedal through the floorboard for 26.3 third quarter last week when there was no pressure being applied. That was the losing difference in being caught at the wire by a tough foe. Closed in 28.1 but it wasn't enough, using and looking for a more measured drive.
5-Leonidas A (9/2)-This will be the 2023 debut for this veteran and tuned-up with a nice qualifier in 156.2 on 2-10. May not be 100% dialed in but if he is close, there shouldn't be an issue being there at the wire. This race could have a lively pace and that won't hurt his chances.

Race 9

3-Brackley Beach (10-1)-Comes back in sequence after missing a start before his 2-13 race. Boyd knows how to get the best out of this 8-year-old but last time the trip couldn't have been much worse. This race should set-up much differently and the price is right to take a swing.
5-Fortify (3-1)-Brennan sticks with the Burke trainee over #2 and has missed a start. Should relish the company on the drop and be tough to beat if brings a top effort.

Race 10

3-Soho Lennon A (4-1)-Got the point and idled into a .59 first half but was tough when needed coming the back half in a snappy 55.4. Comes right back against mostly a different group but at the same class and will respect chances of a repeat.
5-JD (9/2)-Makes the 3rd start of his 4-year-old season and should offer a solid price. Could fit better with this crew, has enough gate speed for Kakaley to be aggressive and look to land on the point. The season mark here in 2022 was 153.2, last week went in a race time of 153.1 with a 27.4 last panel.
6-Arden Messi N (7/2)-Willing to toss last, missed a start, was bottled up on the rail when dropped to this class and had no real chance. Comes back in sequence, best to respect and hopefully won't be over bet.

Race 11

4-Lyons Johnny JNR (5/2)-Should be a player, this is the 4th start off the bench and gets post relief. But won't be 5-1 tonight and could be over bet.
5-Ginger Tree Pete (7-1)-Went off at 12-1 and was driven like the chalk last week. Was used hard to get on the point, fought back around the last turn and was very game to the wire. May not land on the engine after the wings fold but should get a close-up seat and best to not overlook at this price.
6-Rickybobbynthehaus (10-1)-Just missed catching the one above after being next to last at the half and then going 5-wide down the lane. Needs a trip, but this race could set up nicely if in striking range turning for the wire because the pace could be quicker than last week.

$1.00 Pick 4

1,5/3,5/3,5,6/4,5,6
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-20-2023, 06:01 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Fair Grounds - Race #3

#4 Drewhustle	Think he'll get a great trip in here while likely right up on the splits, and he stayed well behind a nice winner and solid third-place horse last time out.
#3 Wicked Rose	Reliable finisher figures to come to life late, but I do worry that maybe he's along a bit too late in the lane to land this one, but he's a logical player for all slots.
#1 Play Mo	He has to turn tables on the top choice after a really flat try last time out, but he's capable of something better than that and is competitive here if he can get back nearer to his baseline.
Race Summary	Drewhustle should be able to get the jump on a couple of threats who want to finish from further off the splits, and something like his last keeps him right there again.

Fair Grounds - Race #6

#5 Twirling Cat	She'll step up to try winners after beating what felt like a decent enough group in the maiden ranks last out, and I bet she still has a little upside after just two starts.
#2 Deroutante	Another maiden riser, this filly comes off the September break, but she steamrolled 11 other maidens in that first turf start when scoring by better than a dozen. Not sure how that stacks up here, but I think she's in the mix.
#7 Lead Me	The recent dirt efforts look competitive with these, but I worry that she's a bit vulnerable late in the lane here at this trip a bit beyond a mile.
Race Summary	Twirling Cat handled a decent group to graduate last time out, and she should be in line for another good trip while spying the splits. Prefer the maiden risers in a race where the experienced types don't impress all that much.

Fair Grounds - Race #7

#4 Kislovodsk	He has been competitive when given the chance to face similar, and he has some room to bounce back here after the flat try with better in the last one. Might offer a mid-range price for an ice-cold barn.
#1 Lucky Smile	Think he has a big claim on this one after making a very mild move and flattening out in the Churchill debut last fall, and the new barn jumped in for him for $50,000 that day. Think he's a player with this type if the pace heats up.
#9 Justforspeightofit	He'll have to prove that last one was no joke, but he should be another decent price to see if he is able to run back to that one. Something similar fits, but the rest of his form leaves him no threat.
Race Summary	Kislovodsk drops back in for a tag where he has run a few decent races, and his style might serve him well today in a race with a few potential forward players. Bides his time in a spying spot to land this?

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-20-2023, 06:01 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Parx - Race #2

#2 CATALON (2-1)	Held off troubled fave, can use speed again to repeat at same distance.
#4 TOURING MARYANNE (3-1)	Second to Cici Unified (3-11, $64k) when claimed for $7,500 two back.
#1 RISEN CHANGE (5-1)	Rallied for share in shorter sprints at 110-1 and 31-1 in three of last five starts.
Race Summary	CATALON is 0-for-6 on a fast track, but he won at this distance on a muddy strip last out. He set the pace, widened the lead on the turn and held safe the even-money favorite, who ‘broke very awkwardly.’ He lands in another pace-controlling spot, so bet to win and place.

Parx - Race #7

#1 MINXSHIPPSDONTLEYE (8-1)	Set fast pace on day when track played slow, good value play.
#7 THE COLORA KID (4-1)	Back-pedaled with Lasix, gets class relief for first start at Parx.
#2 IN SPADES (3-1)	Raced 4-and 5-wide throughout, put to a drive on turn, no impact in lane.
Race Summary	MINXSHIPPSDONTLEYE, hustled to a clear lead off the claim, tired to finish third. But his half-mile split was faster than a same-day, $8,000 starter allowance at 6F, and he can maximize his speed from the rail in this field. Bet to win and place.

Parx - Race #8

#4 SCOOP DAWG (4-1)	Was in peak form when claimed, makes seasonal debut.
#1 KITH (9-2)	Close-up and well bet in last four starts, held for pair of minor awards.
#5 WILL TAKE CONTROL (3-1)	Good fit at this level, slowed by pace as beaten fave in latest.
Race Summary	SCOOP DAWG, idle since December for a 25-percent claim barn, was last seen finishing second to next-out repeater Clear Cut, then winning under ‘mild urging’ in shorter route races. He won his lone start at 1-1/8 miles so bet to win and place in hopes that he’s ready.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-20-2023, 06:10 AM

Racing Dudes Aqueduct Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #2 Gagliano 2-1 O S Barrera, III D Davis
2 #2 Reigning Chick 8-5 P L Reynolds D Davis
3 #4 Raffinity 9-5 R R Rodriguez J A Torres
4 #3 Win for Gold 9-5 A Rice J Lezcano
5 #5 Harlan's Bond 8-1 D G Donk J A Vargas, Jr.
6 #4 Dr Ardito 6-5 C C Brown M Franco
7 #7 No Burn 2-1 O S Barrera, III D Davis
8 #7 Please Be Nice 4-5 W I Mott J Lezcano

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-20-2023, 06:11 AM

Racing Dudes Fair Grounds Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #3 Whats Up Sweets 9-5 J Sharp R Gutierrez
2 #6 Astern Banker 3-5 K G McPeek B J Hernandez, Jr.
3 #3 Wicked Rose 7-2 H B Johnson, Jr. B J Hernandez, Jr.
4 #2 Bellamy Cay 3-1 S Wilson R Gutierrez
5 #2 Nosilverspoonshere 2-5 T M Amoss C J Lanerie
6 #7 Lead Me 3-1 A M Stall, Jr. C J Lanerie
7 #1 Lucky Smile 7-2 M A Tomlinson B J Hernandez, Jr.
8 #5 Money Run 4-1 S M Asmussen B J Hernandez, Jr.
9 #5 Isn't It Time 7-2 J O Duhon E Nieves

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-20-2023, 06:11 AM

Racing Dudes Golden Gate Fields Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #5 Colonel Vargo 8-5 S M Sherman A Espinoza
2 #3 Pollo d'Oro 8-5 S M Sherman A Espinoza
3 #5 Great Story 5-2 V M Trujillo A Chavez
4 #4 Mickey Goldmill 3-1 J Wong E Gonzalez
5 #3 More Power to Him 9-2 F Taylor I Orozco
6 #2 Lord of Light 9-5 S M Sherman A Ayuso
7 #4 Zazen 9-2 D L Markle K Radke
8 #2 Mr. Mason 5-2 L Rivera A Ayuso
9 #9 Zippy Baby 2-1 T McCanna A Espinoza

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-20-2023, 06:12 AM

Racing Dudes Laurel Park Picks

Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
1 #6 Offaly Fast 5-2 J Ness J Rodriguez
2 #6 Up Against It 5-2 D R Dilodovico J Barbosa
3 #3 Spotted Bull 2-1 K Magee J Rodriguez
4 #5 Circling the Drain 7-5 B T Russell J Toledo
5 #12 Distant Fire 6-1 E J Geralis A Cruz
6 #5 Laramore 2-1 C A Gonzalez J F Hernandez
7 #7 Rad Paisley 7-2 A Farrior A Bocachica
8 #3 Icy Stare Down 5-1 B T Russell C Cedeno
9 #7 Bosstonian 5-1 B T Russell L R Rivera, Jr.