Saturday 2/25/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Oaklawn Park

PURCHASE

Oaklawn Park - Race 3	Daily Double / Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)
Optional Claiming $62,500 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 104 • Purse: $106,000 • Post: 1:03P
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON $40,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED SINCE JULY 1, 2022 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $62,500. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $30,000 SINCE NOVEMBER 25, 2022 ALLOWED 3 LBS. $30,000 SINCE AUGUST 25, 2022 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $62,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Trailer. TRIDENT HIT is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * THOMAS SHELBY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. CADDO RIVER: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. MAX PLAYER: Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. TRIDENT HIT: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. PERFECT FLIGHT: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
6	THOMAS SHELBY	4/1	6/1
5	CADDO RIVER	3/1	6/1
8	MAX PLAYER	5/1	6/1
3	TRIDENT HIT	12/1	8/1
2	PERFECT FLIGHT	8/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	THOMAS SHELBY	6	4/1	Front-runner	107	99	98.8	91.8	86.3
4	BACKGROUND	4	15/1	Front-runner	101	94	80.0	91.0	80.0
2	PERFECT FLIGHT	2	8/1	Alternator/Front-runner	105	97	85.4	98.0	88.0
1	FROSTED GRACE	1	2/1	Stalker	101	99	87.4	89.8	76.8
5	CADDO RIVER	5	3/1	Stalker	105	101	76.4	100.2	95.2
8	MAX PLAYER	8	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	111	109	95.2	96.2	88.2
3	TRIDENT HIT	3	12/1	Trailer	106	96	77.0	93.0	83.5
7	MYSTIC NIGHT	7	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	105	105	63.8	90.4	81.9

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream ParkPURCHASE

Gulfstream Park - Race 7	$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5 $.50 Bet 3 (Races 7-8-9) / $.20 Rainbow Pick 6 (Races 7-12)
SO $16,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 93 • Purse: $30,000 • Post: 3:08P
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS SINCE FEBRUARY 25, 2021 OR CLAIMING PRICE $16,000. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $10,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Trailer. DANVILLE is the Lone Trailer of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * UNCORK THE BOTTLE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power R ating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CONCRETE GLORY: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. CARAMEL CHIP: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. FROSTED ARMOUR: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the to p three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
6	UNCORK THE BOTTLE	7/2	7/2
5	CONCRETE GLORY	7/5	7/1
1	CARAMEL CHIP	7/2	8/1
2	FROSTED ARMOUR	8/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	CONCRETE GLORY	5	7/5	Front-runner	89	97	77.8	78.2	71.7
2	FROSTED ARMOUR	2	8/1	Front-runner	90	82	68.8	79.6	71.6
7	HIERRO	7	15/1	Front-runner	89	90	0.0	0.0	0.0
6	UNCORK THE BOTTLE	6	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	95	92	66.8	89.8	87.3
1	CARAMEL CHIP	1	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	92	86	60.4	83.6	77.1
3	DANVILLE	3	6/1	Trailer	92	89	0.0	0.0	0.0
4	SUN VIKING	4	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	89	83	44.6	54.0	41.0

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Turfway Park - Race #4 - Post: 7:25pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $25,000 Class Rating: 78

Rating:

#1 BIGGIE (ML=8/1)
#2 LEAD ACTOR (ML=20/1)
#4 MY FAVORITE UNCLE (ML=7/2)


BIGGIE - After the event aboard this horse on February 10th, the rider is going to know the gelding much better. The jock/conditioner twosome of Ayala and Martinez has a strong ROI together. LEAD ACTOR - On board this entrant on February 8th and Musarro is back again in the irons this time. This gelding is in good form, having run a good race on Feb 8th, finishing third. This steed broke from the outside at Turfway Park last time out, racing 1 mile, but is getting a low post position in this race, which should help his chances today. This gelding's last speed figure is good enough to score here, I'll invest in him back again this time out. MY FAVORITE UNCLE - This gelding's last speed figure earned on Feb 10th is in the top spot in last race Equibase speed figures. I like this gelding. Has the top earnings per race in today's contest. This horse broke from the outside at Turfway Park last time out, racing 1 mile, but is getting a low post position in this race, which should help his chances today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 LAYTOWN (ML=3/1), #5 WHISKEY ROAN (ML=5/1), #7 OFF THE CHARTS (ML=5/1),

LAYTOWN - Really had to give me more than that last out. Never made much of an impact. WHISKEY ROAN - Hard to invest in any horse to turn things around if there is no reward to taking the risk. OFF THE CHARTS - The ninth place finish in the last race was not the greatest.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #1 BIGGIE on the win end if we get at least 4/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,4] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10400 Class Rating: 70

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 FLYIN BY 7/2
# 1 SQUARE FOOTAGE 7/2
# 5 KEEPINMYPROMISE 9/2

FLYIN BY looks to be a very strong contender. Ought to come out strong - I have liked the way this filly has moved sharply to the front end recently. Has to be carefully examined in this competition if only for the quite good speed figure posted in the last affair. SQUARE FOOTAGE - She looks solid in this slot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the halfway point. Has a very strong record at the distance and surface, which makes me give the nod to this filly. KEEPINMYPROMISE - Pierce has this mare moving well and is a very good choice based on the very good speed figures recorded in sprint races recently.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #1 - Post: 12:46pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,500 Class Rating: 65

Rating:

#4 ZIP CODE ENVY (ML=2/1)


ZIP CODE ENVY - This filly's last figure is strong enough to triumph here, I'll play her right back in today's event. A big drop in class figure points from her Oct 5th race at Presque Isle Downs. Based on that data point, I will give this horse the edge. I like this filly. Has the highest EPS (earnings per start) in here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 CLASSIC DREAMER (ML=5/2), #6 BON DIA (ML=3/1), #3 BEER BALI (ML=8/1),

CLASSIC DREAMER - If she goes off anywhere near the oddsmaker's morning line of 5/2, I'll have to pass. BON DIA - Would have to get quite a bit more than the morning line of 3/1 to play this mount. BEER BALI - Would have to get quite a bit more than the morning line odds of 8/1 to wager on this horse.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - ZIP CODE ENVY - Won't necessarily be trailing the field in the early going. Should start kicking it in at the top of the stretch and roll on to victory. Bet this closer.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #4 ZIP CODE ENVY to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	4 with [2,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Sunland Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 440y on the Dirt. Purse: $12100 Class Rating: 63

QUARTER HORSE 440Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE AND FOUR YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; FOUR YEAR OLDS, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 10 ONE BIG CHECK 7/2
# 4 A RELIABLE CARTEL V 6/1
# 7 A DASHING DELILAH 8/1

ONE BIG CHECK supports the bet in here. Will almost certainly go to the lead and should never look back. Is a solid contender - given the 61 speed figure from her most recent race. Strong average Equibase speed figs in short races make this racer a contender. A RELIABLE CARTEL V - Ran a sharp last race. Is a sharp contender based on figures posted recently under today's conditions. A DASHING DELILAH - Should be considered as she drops to compete against this easier field.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapper Sonny LaFouchi(aka The LEGEND)!

Free Winners for Saturday, February 25th 2023 from THE LEGEND!
FREE HORSE PICKS
FAIR GROUNDS
RACE #7
TIME: 5:15 PM EST
PICK: BET #5 Mangum 9/2 odds to win @ Bovada

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Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Saturday, February 25
Posted on February 24, 2023 by David Aragona

RACE 3: STARQUIST (#3)

Maker’s Candy (#4) didn’t run a particularly eye-catching race on debut, especially given the foggy conditions. Yet the word was out that he would deliver a much improved effort in his second start, as he was somewhat surprisingly bet down to favoritism for the stretch-out. He ran to that support and then some, as he traveled boldly into the race and drew away with authority when asked. That 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure towers over this field and the fig looks legitimate based on the merits of those behind him. The one drawback is that Mike Maker is just 5 for 40 (13%, $1.04 ROI) with last-out maiden winners in dirt routes over 5 years. Main rival Neural Network (#5) like he could be any kind coming out of that impressive debut victory in November. He rated kindly off a moderate pace and displayed a nice kick when asked for his best in the lane. Yet he wasn’t quite up to the challenge when he tackled the Jerome against open company last time. Brown now regroups, dropping him in against New York-breds, but this is a pretty solid field. D’ont Lose Cruz (#2) has run well in all of his starts, never finishing out of the exacta. Yet I have some concerns about him stretching out in distance. I actually prefer Starquist (#3), who exits the same races. He simply ran out of ground two back when making his late rally in the Notebook. Then last time he had to make a wide run into the stretch whereas the winner saved all the ground. This colt was also hanging on his left lead through the lane, which seemed to mute his kick. He didn’t finish in his only prior attempt at a mile, but that was just his second start. He gives the physical impression that more distance should benefit him, he’s by 19% dirt route sire Nyquist, and his dam was a stakes winner at 1 1/8 miles on dirt. He also gets a rider upgrade to Dylan Davis for this.

RACE 7: CAPTAINSDAUGHTER (#9)

There appears to be plenty of pace signed on in this N1X allowance, which could complicate the task of likely favorite Kant Hurry Love (#5). She’s shown contesting the lead on the Pace Projector along with about 5 other horses in a fast pace scenario. That will be a different type of trip than she’s enjoyed in her last couple of victories, where she’s been able to either control on the front end or share slow paces. She obviously has the talent to win here, but I don’t think she offers any value. I’m a little more interested in the horse I pegged as the second-choice on the morning line. Kitten’s Appeal (#7) exits a race on Jan. 29 along with several other horses in this field. She lost by a neck but may have run the best race of anyone. She didn’t break that well and had to rush up into a stalking position on the backstretch. She then advanced to make an early bid for the lead and never stopped fighting through the lane. A repeat of that performance will certainly put her in the mix here, but she’s another who could get caught up in a quick pace. I prefer the third-place finisher from that Jan. 29 affair. Captainsdaughter (#9) may have been ridden a bit too conservatively, as Eric Cancel was seemingly waiting for that race to fall apart. However, the speed didn’t develop as much as expected on the front end, and he ended up leaving this filly with too much to do. She still put in a solid rally for third, but I think she’s landed in an even more favorable scenario this time. She may not be the most naturally talented horse in this field, but she possesses a reliable late run when she’s ridden properly. The extra half-furlong of this race should also work to her advantage.

RACE 8: FAR MO POWER (#2)

In the handicapping puzzle that is the Stymie, the most difficult puzzle piece to fit into the larger picture is that of Repo Rocks (#3). He is the key to this race, as the chances of all the other competitors depend on which version of this horse shows up. If Repo Rocks repeats the 130 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned for his victory in the Toboggan Stakes, there isn’t a horse in this field that will be able to defeat him. Yet he had never reached that level before and even his prior starts for Jamie Ness at Parx don’t nearly rise to the lofty heights that he achieved last time. He’s obviously a horse that has run well at Aqueduct before. However, he has never been successful beyond 7 furlongs, and the distance of this race is a major factor, as others are proven going this far. I’m certainly afraid of anything the Jamie Ness barn sends out, as his horses will improve suddenly and maintain that form for several starts. Perhaps Repo Rocks in the midst of one of those peaks. However, he’s now going to be a very short price, whereas last time he was 10-1, and I’m just not comfortable endorsing a favorite that still has significant questions to answer. I also have reservations about Miles D (#6), who could be the second choice in this race. There was a time when this Chad Brown trainee would have been pretty formidable against this field. However, he managed just one start during his 4-year-old season, and returned from a one-year layoff last time at Gulfstream with a disappointing effort. I never thought that was the right spot for him, as he drew the rail going a distance that seems too short for him. Yet now he’s back in a one-mile race, perhaps because there are no other options for him. Bourbonic (#1) is more interesting to me at a similar price, since he’s at least in great form right now. He ran pretty well to win that optional claimer 20 days ago, as he closed into a moderate pace and beat a horse who has been on a roll this winter. I’m using him, but my top pick is another Parx shipper. Far Mo Power (#2) will be making his first start outside of his Pennsylvania home base, but I think he stacks up pretty well against the competition. This horse was a surprise winner *– though ultimately disqualified – in the Parx Dirt Mile last year, finishing in a photo with the classy Mind Control. While that 12-1 upset might seem like an outlier, he had run extremely well after getting a poor trip in his prior start. He then got another nightmare journey two back when he got badly fouled in traffic heading into the clubhouse turn. He got back on track last time with a nice confidence builder, earning a strong 121 TimeformUS Speed Figure. I think he’s going to be perfectly suited to this one-turn mile at Aqueduct, and the price should be more than fair.

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Fair Grounds Feb. 25: Two stakes featured in Late Pick 5
Kevin Kilroy

There are two Louisiana-bred stakes in the Late Pick 5 sequence at Fair Grounds on Saturday. One is wide open, and the other looks like an easy single. I see some interesting price shots in a few other legs, so I am going to build a ticket that could pay handsomely.
50-cent Pick 5 = $72
Race Horses
Race 5

2, 3, 7
Race 6

2, 3, 7, 8
Race 7

7
Race 8

2, 5, 6, 9
Race 9

3, 6, 8
Bet live racing at Fair Grounds here
Race 5, 1 Mile, Buttercup’s Song S., 3-year-old state-bred fillies

#2 New Destiny (9-2) figured things out on the win end last out against a tough field including a few in here. Stretches out now, and Jayde Gelner has won 26% of the last 35 sprint-to-routes. #3 Guitar Woman (7-2) flashed talent as a two-year-old, and then put it all together earlier this year when stretching out for the first time. Looks for a third win in a row. #7 Olivia G (7-2) is a half to stakes winner A G’s Charlotte. She ran well going two turns at first asking, and though she could simply run in-the-money one more time, I respect the fact that she could also put it all together and cruise to victory.
Race 6, Turf, About 1 1/16 Miles, Md Sp Wt 50k ,3-year-olds

The two favorites look beatable in here to me. Let’s take the logical longshots. Tough first try on the turf for #2 Ice Time (8-1), who is well bred for the grass. This will be #3 Minnesota Moon’s (8-1) first start on the turf as a three-year-old. He’ll need to step forward, but in Chris Block on the turf I trust. #7 Two Rivers Over (6-1) ran a field-best 11 on Thoro-Graph last time out. If he can transfer his form to the turf, he can beat this field. #8 Scat Danz (6-1) has a big purchase tag, solid morning drills, and a sire who wins with 20% of his first-time-starters.
Race 7, 1 Mile 70 Yards, Half Ours S., 3-year-old state-breds

#7 Jack Hammer (7-5) has run big in all three races, and Bret Calhoun says he still has more to learn, more to show us. Single.

Race 8, 6 Furlongs, OC 80k/N1X, 3-year-old fillies

One step forward from her debut effort for #2 Topsy (3-1), and she could get the lead and never look back. #5 Shoplifter (6-1) gets Lasix for her three-year-old debut. She ran in the Breeders’ Cup and is fresh for a red-hot Eddie Kenneally barn. #6 Just Like Magic (12-1) has been wearing blinkers and working like a filly who’s ready to strut her stuff in her three-year-old debut. #9 Titled Lady (4-1) bounced last race and had a wide trip. Back to form and she will be dangerous.
Race 9, 1 1/16 Miles, OC 17k/N1X, 4-year-olds and up

#3 Trigger Happy (15-1) made a nice step forward for his four-year-old debut and could easily move up once again to beat these. #6 Brigadier General (5-1) will make his first start as a four-year-old, and though he has been win photo-shy, he’s run some big numbers that could beat these. #8 Cousin Larry (4-1) beat a nice field last out, including the next-out winner Master Game. Can he hold that form?

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Oaklawn spot plays for Feb. 25, including Honeybee and Rebel Stakes
Ashley Anderson

Saturday’s Oaklawn card features both the Honeybee (G3) and Rebel (G2), respectively Kentucky Oaks (G1) and Kentucky Derby (G1) prep races with points awarded on a 50-20-15-10-5 scale to the top five finishers.

Below we offer spot plays for the graded stakes as well as the Carousel S. in Race 7 and a competitive allowance optional claimer in Race 8.

Race 7: Carousel S., six furlongs, fillies and mares four years and up

Morning line favorite #5 Yuugiri (2-1) handled a muddy track in a six-furlong allowance at Oaklawn on Dec. 30, wiring the field and beating a next-out winner by 2 1/4 lengths while posting a 96 Brisnet Speed rating. The Shackleford filly was sharp in 2022, with a victory in the Fantasy (G3) and a third in the Honeybee to earn a spot in last year's Kentucky Oaks, where she set the pace early before giving way in the stretch to come home 13th of 14 fillies. The Rodolphe Brisset pupil comes off a nearly two-month layoff here and posted a sharp, four-furlong workout ahead of her sixth stakes attempt. Ricardo Santana Jr. (a 21% winner this meet) will stick with the four-year-old, who is racing on Lasix for the second time.

While Yuugiri will be tough to beat, a few longer shots are enticing among the 11-horse field. #10 Mercy Warren (8-1) romped to a 16-length victory last out in a six-furlong allowance optional claimer at Fair Grounds over a track labeled good, and her bullet, 47-second four-furlong workout indicates she's sharp and ready in her first stakes effort.

#1 Hazy Command (10-1) is also intriguing from the rail post, which is winning at a 21% clip this meet. The four-year-old Candy Ride granddaughter has won back to back at today's distance since joining the barn of Tom Amoss, and she's never finished out of the money in nine tries at six furlongs. Amoss is a 19% winner with horses that won their last race, and regular rider Rafael Bejarano is an 18% winner this meet.
Race 8: Allowance optional claimer, six furlongs, four-year-olds and up

#1 Flap Jack (2-1) drew a favorable post in this nine-horse optional claimer and will go for his third straight victory, and second since he was claimed by trainer Chris Hartman, a 33% winner this meet. The Oxbow six-year-old wired a $30,000 allowance at this track over muddy ground last out and will keep rider Nik Juarez, a 17% winner at Oaklawn. Flap Jack owns a 10-4-0-1 record at today's distance, and he's 2-for-4 at this track. The pacesetter should be able to get out front early and control the pace throughout.
Race 10: Honeybee S. (G3), 1 1/16 miles, three-year-old fillies

#7 Wet Paint (7-2) triumphed by two lengths over today's rival Taxed last out in the 1 1/16-mile Martha Washington S., in which she recorded a 91 BRIS figure with a 107 Late Pace rating over a wet-fast track. The daughter of Blame was full of run to win going away and proved the stretch-out to 8 1/2 furlongs was well-suited for the three-year-old. Trainer Brad Cox is a 28% winner with horses that won their last race and a 25% winner in graded stakes. Jockey Flavien Prat, who is 4-for-6 at Oaklawn, will retain the mount, and Wet Paint's bullet five-furlong workout on Feb. 19 adds to the appeal.
Race 11: Rebel S. (G2), 1 1/16 miles, three-year-olds

Another highly touted Cox runner, #1 Verifying (2-1) drew the rail out of the 11-horse field and enters off a commanding victory in an allowance optional claimer, where he beat second-place finisher and today's race rival Gun Pilot by 5 1/4 lengths. By Justify, Verifying has since recorded a trio of sharp five-furlong workouts and can improve in his second start off a layoff. Jockey Florent Geroux is 8-2-2-1 at Oaklawn this meet and a 38% winner paired with Cox over the last two months. He'll look to take command from the start in Verifying's second try at 8 1/2 furlongs.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Lingfield Park: 2023 Winter Derby Plays
TwinSpires Staff

Winter Derby Day Tips and Picks by Timeform

Race 1
Forge Valley Lad
Later Darling
Renardeau
Race 2
Alligator Alley
Miss Nay Never
Tone the Barone
Race 3
Lord North
Tyrrhenian Sea
Forest of Dean
Race 4
Security Code
Notre Belle Bete
Diderot
Race 5
Burglar
Garrick Street
Bear On the Loose
Race 6
Soaring Eagle
Restrict
Crimson Angel
Race 7
Bashful Boy
Minister For Magic
Smart Champion
Race 8
Marion's Boy
Cresta De Vega
Sundayinmay

Lingfield Racing Analysis & Expert Picks
RACE 2

Simon Mapletoft:

EXALTED ANGEL can claim his reward for a string of solid performances in defeat this winter by taking an average renewal of the Hever Sprint S. at Lingfield on Saturday.

Karl Burke’s decision to reach for the first-time visor can give the seven-year-old that vital edge in the

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Pony Conductor


Oaklawn Park: Rebel Stakes Day Key Horses

Hopefully the rain holds off Saturday. It probably won’t and a great card will be ruined. Skip.
Oaklawn Park Race 8: 6 Furlongs. OC 50000n2x

#5 Improbable Journey (12/1) – When this gelding clears to the front he can win and his early pace figures give him a chance to here. There looks to be some rain in the forecast and the wet track further improves his chances. It’s more probable that he steals this one on the front end.

Other Contenders: #1 Flap Jack (2/1), #3 Senor Jobim (12/1), #6 Spankster (5/2), #8 Albizu (3/1)
Oaklawn Park Race 9: 6 Furlongs. OC 50000n2x

#2 Golden Hornet (4/1) – This is another gelding that has an early pace advantage in an Oaklawn sprint. He showed real grit fighting back after being headed in the stretch last time. The Ductor will back him again today if this morning line holds.

Other Contenders: #4 Osbourne (8/5). #9 Life is Hard (3/1), #10 Fore Left (10/1)

Oaklawn Park Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. F.G3 Honeybee Stakes

#1 Effortlesslyelgant (20/1) – His morning line can’t be accurate. He’ll still be a good price and he’s a wild card stretching out to a route for the first time. He ran a strong number in the slop sprinting last time and this race does not have a lot of other early pace. He should be able to clear from the rail and there’s no telling how far he wants to go. At the price he’ll be, he needs to be included on any passenger’s tickets.

Other Contenders: #3 Grand Love (3/1), #4 Gambling Girl (12/1), #7 Wet Paint (7/2)
Oaklawn Park Race 11: 1 1/16 Mile. G2 Rebel Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Red Route Run (10/1) – He’s the price the Ductor likes best in the is race and the one he’ll key around. He ran very well in the Jockey Club Gold Cup last fall where he was shut off in the stretch and never quit. He returned off the bench last time and showed a good closing kick behind the odds on favorite Arabian Night. With a step forward 2nd off the layoff he can win this race and he’ll be finishing best. At worse he’ll inject value into the exacta and trifecta.


Oaklawn Park: Rebel Stakes Day Key Horses

Hopefully the rain holds off Saturday. It probably won’t and a great card will be ruined. Skip.
Oaklawn Park Race 8: 6 Furlongs. OC 50000n2x

#5 Improbable Journey (12/1) – When this gelding clears to the front he can win and his early pace figures give him a chance to here. There looks to be some rain in the forecast and the wet track further improves his chances. It’s more probable that he steals this one on the front end.

Other Contenders: #1 Flap Jack (2/1), #3 Senor Jobim (12/1), #6 Spankster (5/2), #8 Albizu (3/1)
Oaklawn Park Race 9: 6 Furlongs. OC 50000n2x

#2 Golden Hornet (4/1) – This is another gelding that has an early pace advantage in an Oaklawn sprint. He showed real grit fighting back after being headed in the stretch last time. The Ductor will back him again today if this morning line holds.

Other Contenders: #4 Osbourne (8/5). #9 Life is Hard (3/1), #10 Fore Left (10/1)
Oaklawn Park Race 10: 1 1/16 Mile. F.G3 Honeybee Stakes

#1 Effortlesslyelgant (20/1) – His morning line can’t be accurate. He’ll still be a good price and he’s a wild card stretching out to a route for the first time. He ran a strong number in the slop sprinting last time and this race does not have a lot of other early pace. He should be able to clear from the rail and there’s no telling how far he wants to go. At the price he’ll be, he needs to be included on any passenger’s tickets.

Other Contenders: #3 Grand Love (3/1), #4 Gambling Girl (12/1), #7 Wet Paint (7/2)
Oaklawn Park Race 11: 1 1/16 Mile. G2 Rebel Stakes

*Gullet Shot of the Day #3 Red Route Run (10/1) – He’s the price the Ductor likes best in the is race and the one he’ll key around. He ran very well in the Jockey Club Gold Cup last fall where he was shut off in the stretch and never quit. He returned off the bench last time and showed a good closing kick behind the odds on favorite Arabian Night. With a step forward 2nd off the layoff he can win this race and he’ll be finishing best. At worse he’ll inject value into the exacta and trifecta.

Punch Neck GIF - Punch Neck Crazy GIFs

Other Contenders: #1 Verifying (2/1), #5 Giant Mischief (5/2), #6 Reincarnate (7/2)
Other Contenders: #1 Verifying (2/1), #5 Giant Mischief (5/2), #6 Reincarnate (7/2)
Oaklawn Park Race 12: 6 Furlongs. S.Mdn 90k

#7 Midnight Taxes (3/1) – This looks like a chalky finale to the Ductor. #10 Time Andbeyond (5/2) is a formidable favorite after overcoming serious trouble at the start last time. The Ductor is still going to try and beat him with the early pace advantage Midnight Taxes has over this group. This gelding will be able to get the early lead and moving to the Hartman barn, he wont stop. He’ll make thee Ductor’s 2024’s check to uncle Sam much larger.

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Great Britain Preview: Plays for Kempton Feb. 25
Alastair Bull

With Cheltenham a little more than two weeks away, there aren’t as many top horses running this week, but Kempton Park does still host three Grade 2 events and a rich handicap.

We will focus on the handicap and offer some spot plays for the others.
Race 3, 10:00 a.m. ET: Coral Trophy Chase (Handicap), 3 miles, open steeplechase
Trophy Chase Selections

#8 Our Power
#12 Cap Du Nord
#3 Clondaw Castle
#5 Annsam

Trophy Chase Wagers

$10 win/$20 show: #8 Our Power
$1 exacta: box 3, 5, 8, 12

There are some high-class horses here — it even includes a three-time Grade 1 winner in #1 Frodon, who admittedly looks past his best and has a big task at the weights here.

Arguably the two best chances are #8 Our Power and #12 Cap Du Nord, and they have come in with contrasting preparations. Our Power has run just once this season, winning the Gold Cup Handicap Chase (G3) at Ascot back in late October. This race, in which he finished third last year, is clearly his big aim, and he should be respected for that.

Cap Du Nord won this last year, but he’s been much busier in the meantime. He’s run five times this season, and after a mixed preparation, was back in the winner’s enclosure just last week in the Swinley Handicap Chase (G3). It was an easy victory, but can he back up in seven days?

Among the others, #3 Clondaw Castle won this two years ago and put up a nice effort at his first run in more than a year when second to Pic D’Orhy in the Silviniaco Conti Chase (G2) Jan. 14. Also worth a thought is #5 Annsam; he was easily beaten by Our Power at Ascot in October but put up a much-improved performance winning by 17 lengths at Kempton in a handicap Jan. 14.

I’m going to support Our Power and look for exactas with the others.
Race 1, 8:50 a.m. ET: Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (G2), 2 miles, 4-year-old hurdlers

#1 Scriptwriter has a five-pound penalty to deal with against his opponents here, but he is the best-performed, having won the Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle (G2) in November and finishing second to Comfort Zone in the Finesse Hurdle (G2) Jan 28. He doesn’t have to worry about Comfort Zone here.

$10 win/$20 place: #1 Scriptwriter

Race 2, 9:25 a.m. ET: Pendil Novices’ Chase (G2), 2 9/16 miles, novice chasers

Not the strongest field for a Grade 2 chase. Most of the horses are on the improve, but I’ll go with the most proven horse in #1 Boothill, whose only defeats this season have been behind Grade 1 winners Tommy’s Oscar and Jonbon. He won the Wayward Lad Novices Chase (G2) on this course Dec. 27 and can score again.

$20 win: #1 Boothill

Race 4, 10:40 a.m. ET: Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle (G2), 2 miles, novice hurdlers

The best two-mile novice hurdlers are skipping this with Cheltenham a little more than two weeks away, so there is little top-level form among these runners. The only graded stakes form is from #5 Ukantango, second in the Sharp Novices’ Hurdle (G2) at Cheltenham Nov. 13, and he looks a good prospect here. The one to beat him may be #4 Rubaud, who put up a great effort under handicap conditions for second at Kempton Dec. 26. He failed last start, but the addition of a hood should help.

$10 win: #4 Rubaud
$2 exacta: box 4, 5

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Sydney Preview: Spot Plays for Randwick Feb. 25
Alastair Bull

A pair of Group 1 races highlight a strong card of racing at Randwick racecourse in Sydney this weekend.

There are plenty of good races on the undercard, but we will focus on the two most prestigious races.
Race 7, 12:00 a.m. Saturday ET: Surround Stakes (G1), 1,400 meters (about 7 furlongs), 3yo fillies

The big clash here is between Godolphin’s star filly #1 In Secret, an easy winner on her return two weeks ago, and last spring’s Flight Stakes (G1) winner #3 Zougotcha.

In Secret will probably head the market. She was super-impressive when winning the Coolmore Stud Stakes (G1) at Flemington in spring, and returned in style in the Light Fingers (G2) Feb. 11. She is the highest-rated filly in the field and has Hugh Bowman aboard.

However, James McDonald, who has ridden both fillies, is aboard Zougotcha. She was unbeaten in spring, toppling In Secret in the Silver Shadow (G2) before moving up in distance to take the seven-furlong Tea Rose (G2) and the one-mile Flight. At seven furlongs, she may just have the edge, and she should be at much better value than her rival.

Others worth considering for the lower exotic rungs are #8 Sunshine In Paris, #9 Cinderella Days, and the Melbourne visitor #11 Ruthless Dame.

$10 win/$30 show: #3 Zougotcha
$2 trifecta: 1, 3 with 1, 3 with 8, 9, 11

Race 8, 12:40 a.m. Saturday ET: Chipping Norton Stakes (G1), 1,600 meters (about one mile), 3yos and up

Does anything beat #1 Anamoe? Probably not, especially at a mile. The Cox Plate (G1) winner is targeting the Queen Anne Stakes (G1) at Royal Ascot and showed he was as good as ever when winning the Apollo (G2) Feb. 11.

With no other top-class milers in the field, it’s hard to see him being beaten. The only other horse close to his level of ability at a mile is #2 Mo’unga, and he’s not the easiest to follow.

For the exotics, I’d look at the horses that chased Anamoe home in the Apollo, #12 Hinged and #11 Fangirl, and the Hong Kong Mile third-place finisher #5 Laws Of Indices.

$30 win: #1 Anamoe
$1 trifecta: 1 with 2, 5, 11, 12 with 2, 5, 11, 12