Sunday 2/26/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 369858

    #1

    Sunday 2/26/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

    Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 369858

    #2
    Jeff Siegel's Golden Gate Best Plays - Feb. 26, 2023


    February 26, 2023

    Eighth Race – Golden Gate Fields (post time: 4:45 PT)
    4-Tribal Nation (8/5)


    May have gone a bit too fast for his own good during the early stages of a similar middle distance allowance optional claimer last month and was worn down despite holding a six length advantage in mid-stretch but gets a golden opportunity to make amends when likely to enjoy a softer pace flow today. The son of Papa Clem has multiple victories over the local all-weather surface, shows three nice breezes since ran, and is reunited with leading jockey Assael Espinoza, who has been aboard for three of the gelding’s four career victories. The Andy Mathis-trained gelding must pack a heavy load (127 lbs.) but if he can reproduce his best effort he should take this field gate to wire.

    Ninth Race – Golden Gate Fields (Post time 5:15 PT)
    4-Lottery Pick (5/2)


    Southern California shipper finished more than five lengths clear of the rest when running a winning race in defeat vs. maiden $50,000 foes at Santa Anita last month while earning a speed figure that is eight points better than par for this level. He was a voided claim that day, but we’ll assume he’s okay since he’s being protected in straight maiden company by trainer Peter Eurton. The son of American Freedom has a healthy worth pattern (three breezes) since raced and projects to enjoy an ideal pace-stalking position and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. At 5/2 on the morning line he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 369858

      #3
      Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis


      February 26, 2023 | By Al Cimaglia
      Northfield Park has 15 races scheduled and the $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a low 14% takeout, and it will be my focus.

      Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

      Race 11

      2-Lancaster Hill (2-1)-Kreiser trainee drops to a spot for a picture. Has raced at this level 3 times since 11-21 and has 2 wins and a 3rd place finish. Billy Davis Jr should be on the lead soon after the wings fold and will play catch me if you can.

      Race 12

      1-Dontyousayit (3-1)-Can't say my confidence is brimming with 2 wins in 38 starts over the past 2 years but using and will fade the program chalk #4 (9/5) that didn't look great on the track last week. Gets a positive driver change in Merriman and should have the lead off the gate. Will spread in this leg and look for better value.
      3-Wadadli (9/2)-Has been competitive at this level but hasn't been able to finish off the mile for a win. The same can be said for this field, but draws into a slot where Myers can race close to the lead and use one-move late.
      5-Megabank K (25-1)-Shipped in from the Meadows to appear here last week and was stuck with post 9. Raced evenly and was off 3-weeks before the start. Should be a price but not 25-1, and has hit the board in 12 of 16 starts at Nfld posting 4 wins.
      9-Kandy Sweet (8-1)-Beat the $75k claimers back on October 26 at YR and hasn't taken a picture since. Will need to get some racing luck with this post draw but should be able to follow #1 off the gate and land a decent seat. The price could be better than the morning line.

      Race 13

      1-Bernie (5/2)-Was slow off the gate and then rallied in a big way off cover to finish a close 2nd. Stahl should be racing close to the lead and will be tough to beat with a top effort.
      3-Bettor Than Spring (5-1)-Does well getting on the point and controlling the race. That strategy can work with this post draw as others with good gate speed drew outside. Davis Jr could get the top and make every call a winning one.

      Race 14

      1-Dancin Dragon (3-1)-Went off at 2/5 from the rail on 1-8 and beat this kind at Nfld. Takes a meaningful drop from the Open ranks. Wrenn is steering and should be racing on the lead or near the top of the stack and either can work for a picture.
      3-Almanac (4-1)-Bumps up after a gate to wire score at 1/2, loses Merriman to the one above but Davis Jr can provide a sharp steer. This is the 3rd start for the Holzman barn and has shown improvement. Should offer a square price and has the gate speed to get the top again.

      $1.00 Late Pick 4

      2/1,3,5,9/1,3/1,3
      Total Bet=$16
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      Comment

      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 369858

        #4
        Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks


        Fair Grounds - Race #6
        #4 Conrad the Red He goes off the claim for a team that is capable of better than what they've shown so far this meet, and he has shown a little versatility in his running lines and offers some intrigue in his first dirt route.
        #3 Celluloid Hero He and #2 Uncle Berley both make a lot of sense on paper in here, but neither of them is all that reliable in the late stages, and I think they both might be overbet and vulnerable late. Obvious considerations.
        #5 G's Million He hasn't shown much through two sprint starts, but he has a little positional pace that might leave him in a really good spot while stretching out. Consider including on spread tickets?
        Race Summary Conrad the Red might get a little bit overlooked on the board in here while racing off the claim, but I think he has a right to enjoy this trip from close range while trying two turns on dirt.
        Fair Grounds - Race #7
        #4 Just Say So She's racing with some upside in this second start off a four-month break, and she moved up nicely in that first start with Lasix. Something similar to that one would probably be pretty compelling here.
        #1 More than Glory Both of the pair nearest the rail, including #2 Heckled, go first out for capable teams with pedigrees that hint to success at this kind of trip. Take a look on the track and tote and incoporate.
        #8 Calm Cool I expected a lot better from her in the debut run, but she faded badly that day and will certainly need better here while trying the turf. She seems possible, but I'd want a decent number to think about it.
        Race Summary Just Say So might be the right spot to stand in a race where a couple of interesting firsters might take a little cash, but I think 'Say So's baseline effort is probably good enough here.
        Fair Grounds - Race #8
        #3 Maestria Speed has already proven to be a nice $20,000 claim back in December, and she might be the most committed to the front end of the entire group. Chance to wire them.
        #5 Ours and Theirs She's one of several in here who might be grinding along late for a piece, and she's capable of something a little bit better than she showed last time out.
        #1 Rue Lala She is fast enough to keep in touch early on, but she also has a mild rating gear that might leave her in a really sweet spot in the pocket behind the top choice today.
        Race Summary Maestria is probably quickest off the line here, and I think she might be fast enough to secure a clean enough lead to take these the entire way.
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        Comment

        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 369858

          #5
          F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Aqueduct

          PURCHASE
          Aqueduct - Race 8
          Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 8 &9
          Allowance • 1 1/4 Miles • Dirt • Ages 4 and up CR: 92 • Purse: $82,000 • Post: 4:26P
          (UP TO $14,268 NYSBFOA) FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $18,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING OR STARTER AT A MILE OR OVER ALLOWED 3 LBS.
          Contenders
          Race Analysis
          P#
          Horse
          Morn
          Line
          Accept
          Odds

          Race Type: Lone Front-runner. GOOD SKATE is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CURBSTONE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. GOOD SKATE: Horse has run a Good Race wit hin the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. TIMBUKTU: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BOLD VICTORY: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse h as the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
          2
          CURBSTONE
          4/5
          9/2
          6
          GOOD SKATE
          2/1
          6/1
          4
          TIMBUKTU
          10/1
          8/1
          5
          BOLD VICTORY
          5/1
          8/1

          P#
          Horse (In Running Style Order)
          Post
          Morn
          Line
          Running Style
          Good
          Class
          Good
          Speed
          Early Figure
          Finish Figure
          Platinum
          Figure
          6
          GOOD SKATE
          6
          2/1
          Front-runner
          94
          84
          90.2
          72.2
          65.7
          4
          TIMBUKTU
          4
          10/1
          Stalker
          93
          87
          88.9
          81.8
          77.8
          2
          CURBSTONE
          2
          4/5
          Alternator/Stalker
          95
          101
          81.6
          87.0
          83.0
          1
          MAILMAN'S A FLYER
          1
          15/1
          Trailer
          87
          84
          72.4
          80.6
          69.6
          5
          BOLD VICTORY
          5
          5/1
          Trailer
          95
          89
          68.6
          84.2
          79.7
          3
          UNION LIGHTS
          3
          15/1
          Alternator/Non-contender
          80
          75
          75.3
          49.8
          38.8
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          Comment

          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 369858

            #6
            F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf ParadisePURCHASE


            Turf Paradise - Race 7
            $1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 7-8)
            Claiming $4,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up CR: 81 • Purse: $10,400 • Post: 3:58P
            FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED AT THE 2022-2023 TURF PARADISE MEET FOR $4,000 OR LESS AND HAVE NOT FINISHED 1ST, 2ND OR 3RD AT THE MEET. OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 26, 2022. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $3,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).
            Contenders
            Race Analysis
            P#
            Horse
            Morn
            Line
            Accept
            Odds

            Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * GO ADMIRAL GO: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. DEVIL'S TEETH: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. SINGANDCRYINDUBAI: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SIDE STREET DAVE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourt h start after a layoff. DON'TTEASETHETIGER: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
            3
            GO ADMIRAL GO
            10/1
            6/1
            10
            DEVIL'S TEETH
            2/1
            6/1
            2
            SINGANDCRYINDUBAI
            5/1
            6/1
            6
            SIDE STREET DAVE
            4/1
            8/1
            1
            DON'TTEASETHETIGER
            12/1
            9/1

            P#
            Horse (In Running Style Order)
            Post
            Morn
            Line
            Running Style
            Good
            Class
            Good
            Speed
            Early Figure
            Finish Figure
            Platinum
            Figure
            6
            SIDE STREET DAVE
            6
            4/1
            Front-runner
            85
            79
            78.4
            67.8
            53.8
            7
            MANY ROSES
            7
            10/1
            Front-runner
            80
            76
            0.0
            0.0
            0.0
            10
            DEVIL'S TEETH
            10
            2/1
            Stalker
            79
            78
            72.0
            75.2
            68.7
            1
            DON'TTEASETHETIGER
            1
            12/1
            Stalker
            86
            84
            49.2
            72.4
            63.9
            2
            SINGANDCRYINDUBAI
            2
            5/1
            Alternator/Stalker
            87
            81
            71.0
            69.8
            63.3
            3
            GO ADMIRAL GO
            3
            10/1
            Alternator/Stalker
            93
            78
            63.2
            69.2
            63.2
            5
            FLY BUDDY FLY
            5
            20/1
            Trailer
            81
            80
            40.5
            74.8
            61.8
            8
            ECHO ALPHA SIX
            8
            6/1
            Alternator/Trailer
            82
            68
            42.8
            67.8
            54.8
            4
            JAKE THE GREAT
            4
            12/1
            Alternator/Non-contender
            79
            73
            61.5
            64.5
            54.5
            9
            TEXAS LONHRO
            9
            12/1
            Alternator/Non-contender
            80
            77
            58.0
            58.4
            43.4
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            Comment

            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 369858

              #7
              Handicapped by The Walker Group at Rillito Park

              PURCHASE
              Always check program numbers.
              Odds shown are morning line odds.




              Race 5 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $7600 Class Rating: 60

              FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND OLDER WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE MAY 23, 2022. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,500.

              RECOMMENDED CHOICES
              # 3 SHELBY R. 3/1
              # 7 RED HOT CAT 2/1
              # 8 LOST THE MINISTER 6/1
              SHELBY R. looks to be a competitive contender. Will more than likely be one of the front-runners of the group going into the midpoint of the race. Must be in good condition if the trainer is bringing her back so soon. Metz has a reliable 16 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. RED HOT CAT - The average class fig of 61 makes this one hard to beat. Have to take notice when any pony makes a quick turn around. LOST THE MINISTER - Must be carefully examined as he drops to compete against this easier group. This gelding has some longshot handicapping angles I like to play.
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              Comment

              • Can'tPickAWinner
                Super Moderator
                • Nov 2012
                • 369858

                #8
                Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

                PURCHASE


                Golden Gate Fields - Race #9 - Post: 5:26pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $30,000 Class Rating: 91

                Rating:

                #3 NATIONAL GENERAUX (IRE) (ML=9/2)
                #4 LOTTERY PICK (ML=5/2)
                #6 NICKEL NICKEL NINE (ML=8/1)


                NATIONAL GENERAUX (IRE) - This gelding is in fine physical condition, having run a strong race on February 4th, finishing second. LOTTERY PICK - That 98 fig this gelding earned in his last event tells me he's a key player this time around. Horses that finish second in Maiden races and finish well in front of the show horse are generally good bets next time out. Trying to win for the 1st time moving from a turf race to the dirt. I think Eurton will have him fit for today's race. NICKEL NICKEL NINE - I expect this horse to stun some railbirds today.

                Vulnerable Contenders: #2 SAREEHA (IRE) (ML=3/2),

                SAREEHA (IRE) - Tough to put your cash on this oft beaten public's top choice. Not much value. Didn't meet expectations when the favorite back to back.



                STRAIGHT WAGERS: Go with #3 NATIONAL GENERAUX (IRE) on top if we're getting at least 4/1 odds
                EXACTA WAGERS: Box [3,4,6]

                TRIFECTA WAGERS:
                Box [3,4,6] Total Cost: $6
                SUPERFECTA WAGERS: [3,4,6] with [3,4,6] with [3,4,5,6,8] with [3,4,5,6,8] Total Cost: $36

                SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:
                Skip
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                Comment

                • Can'tPickAWinner
                  Super Moderator
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 369858

                  #9
                  Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fair Grounds

                  PURCHASE
                  Always check program numbers.
                  Odds shown are morning line odds.




                  Race 1 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 64

                  FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 26 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000, IF FOR $7,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

                  RECOMMENDED CHOICES
                  # 1 IRONIT 3/1
                  # 7 WENDY WILECAT 7/2
                  # 6 RESPOSADO 4/1
                  IRONIT is the best wager in this race. Is worth a close look and may be a bet - strong speed figures (59 average) at today's distance and surface as of late. Had one of the most favorable Equibase Speed Figs of this field in her last contest. Shows formidable speed figures on average overall when measured up against the rest of this group of horses in this race. WENDY WILECAT - Put up a reliable Equibase Speed Fig in the last race. Can run another good one in this contest. Has a very strong record at the distance and surface, which makes me give my vote to this mare. RESPOSADO - Could best this group of horses in this race here, showing quite good figures of late. Looks competitive to be up on the front end at the first call.
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                  Comment

                  • Can'tPickAWinner
                    Super Moderator
                    • Nov 2012
                    • 369858

                    #10
                    Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

                    PURCHASE


                    Oaklawn Park - Race #9 - Post: 4:42pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $26,000 Class Rating: 70

                    Rating:

                    #5 ORDER OF MERIT (ML=4/1)


                    ORDER OF MERIT - Have to give this gelding a shot. Ran a solid effort in the last race within the last month. I like horses that return to a similar class level after dropping at least five class rating pts like this one did last out. I believe he'll be competitive at this class level.

                    Vulnerable Contenders: #9 ALPHA WHISKEY (ML=5/2), #7 CAMPISI (ML=7/2), #6 UNCAPTURED DREAM (ML=9/2),

                    ALPHA WHISKEY - 5/2 is not offering enough value for any horse in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't finished in the money in a short distance event recently. Didn't land in the money on May 28th at Churchill Downs. Followed it up with another less than stellar performance. CAMPISI - Don't believe this questionable contender will make a winning move in today's race. That last speed rating was run-of-the-mill when compared with today's class rating. UNCAPTURED DREAM - Speed ratings of 74/68/55 are in motion the wrong direction. Recorded a disappointing rating last time out in a $75,000 Maiden Claiming race on March 26th. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that figure.

                    GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - ORDER OF MERIT - At Oaklawn Park on February 4th this gelding posted a speed figure of 70 in his last race. He has the greatest last figure in the field.





                    STRAIGHT WAGERS: Go with #5 ORDER OF MERIT on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds
                    EXACTA WAGERS: 5 with [2,9]

                    TRIFECTA WAGERS:
                    Skip
                    SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Skip
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                    Comment

                    • Can'tPickAWinner
                      Super Moderator
                      • Nov 2012
                      • 369858

                      #11
                      Rocket Picks ��: Oaklawn Park, Gulfstream Park, and Aqueduct for February 26, 2023
                      By: Aaron Halterman

                      Let’s get another big Sunday of racing kicked off today! For the free pick 4, we will head to Gulfstream Park for the Late Pick 4 on the card. We will also have full card selections for Aqueduct and Oaklawn Park for the paid Rockets, so be sure to check those out. Let’s GO!

                      Below is our free late Pick 4 for Gulfstream Park:

                      Gulfstream Park February 26, 2023

                      Race 7: Starter Optional Claiming

                      #4 Souper Energizer goes for two in a row today after defeating state bred allowance horses in his last start. #7 Conglomerate won at this level two starts back, while he was a solid third at this level in his last start.

                      Race 8: Allowance Optional Claiming
                      freestar

                      #4 Rosie’s Halo looks for his second straight win today after a sharp effort last time out over this track against state bred horses. #2 Dreamster goes for three straight victories today after back to back wins at this track and over this surface.

                      Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming

                      #10 Diamond Hands has hit the board in two straight races against similar horses coming into this race. #5 Mona Stella drops down in class for this one after running well against stakes horses last time out. This drop in class should make her tough to beat.

                      Race 10: Claiming

                      #7 Villegas Swing gets class relief today after running poorly against tougher runners, while running second off the claim for a solid trainer. #8 Naval Officer runs for a new barn today after nearly winning at this level in his last start.

                      THE TICKET

                      $.50 Pick 4 (Races 7-10) 2,4,7,10 / 2,4,5,6 / 5,10 / 2,7,8 – $48
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                      Comment

                      • Can'tPickAWinner
                        Super Moderator
                        • Nov 2012
                        • 369858

                        #12
                        Aqueduct Horses in Focus for Sunday, February 26
                        Posted on February 25, 2023 by David Aragona

                        RACE 7: COOL QUARTET (#1)

                        Vintage Hollywood (#6) and Truculent (#3) finished first and second in a $10k claiming race last time, and now they’ve moving up to the $16k level. Yet that might have been a tougher race than this one, as winner Dust Devil is a classier horse that any rivals they’re meeting in this spot. I prefer Vintage Hollywood from that race, not just because he finished ahead of his rival. January 22 race was a day where the rail appeared to be a significant advantage, and Vintage Hollywood was stalking in the 2-path, whereas Truculent stayed inside for his entire trip. The former seems to be rounding back into form for Gustavo Rodriguez, and I view him as a strong contender. Yet I want to go in a different direction for my top pick. Cool Quartet (#1) ran a race two back that would make him competitive against this field, drawing away to win a $12,500 claimer by nearly 6 lengths. He was claimed out of that spot by Orlando Noda and wheeled back 6 days later in a much tougher $25k claimer. He obviously didn’t fare well, but the ride he got didn’t do him any favors. The horse caused some problems by stumbling at the start, but he then got steered to the far outside and was ridden to make a premature 5-wide move into contention before fading in the stretch. He’s better than that, and I think he can rebound here second off the claim as he gets a rider upgrade to Manny Franco. The wild card in the field is Daddy Knows (#7), who has been claimed back by Ray Handal. The horse had success for these connections earlier in his career, but his recent form has been pretty ugly. He’s also been getting out badly in his races, so the outside draw could work against him.

                        RACE 8: GOOD SKATE (#6)

                        Many players are likely to just concede this race to Curbstone (#2). He has been in great form lately, reeling off two consecutive victories by open lengths since moving into the Tom Morley barn and switching back over to dirt. The distance of this affair, 1 1/4 miles, also figures to work in his favor, since he’s the only horse in the field to have won going this far, and more ground does appear to benefit him. However, he was beating up on a weaker group last time and will be getting a real class test for the first time. It is true that this N1X allowance affair didn’t come up quite as tough as it could have, but he’s still facing one rival in particular that merits serious consideration. Good Skate (#6) was probably never beating winner Tonal Impact when he tried this level last time. Yet he wasn’t done any favors by the tactics, as Manny Franco elected to rate him off the leaders after he got bumped coming out of the starting gate. The horse appeared to resent that restraint on the clubhouse turn, as he was tugging at Franco before ultimately settling on the backstretch. He made a strong move to challenge for the lead in upper stretch but couldn’t withstand the late charge of the winner. All things considered, he proved that he handles the two turns. This time he should get a better trip from the outside post position, as he looks like the controlling speed. He’s going to be a better price than Curbstone, has a superior rider on his back, and his last TimeformUS Speed Figure of 107 suggests that he’s nearly on par with that foe.

                        RACE 9: GEM MINT TEN (#4)

                        This New York-bred maiden finale is arguably the most interesting race on the card, having attracted 13 competitors with no obvious standouts. The likely favorite is Victory Money (#9), who was mildly disappointing when checking in fifth on debut as the 3-1 second choice. Yet he ran into an awfully talented rival in winner Mariachi, who looked bound for stakes prior to going to the sidelines. We have seen horses run back out of that race validate the speed figure, and his 90 TimeformUS number certainly makes him a deserving favorite. The big question for him is the stretch-out to a mile, and he’s bred to handle it, being by 17% dirt route sire Constitution. Yet I didn’t want to settle for a short price in such a wide open field. Engineer Empire (#8) could also take some money as a first time starter for Christophe Clement, who is 6 for 34 (18%, $2.04 ROI) debuting in dirt routes over 5 years. This son of Empire Maker is a half-brother to Grade 1 winner Belle Gallantey, but there really isn’t much production on the dam’s side beyond that star sibling. I prefer another of the second time starters. Gem Mint Ten (#4) took money on debut to get pounded down to 2-1 favoritism last month. That race was flattered on Saturday when winner Dr. Kraft returned to finish a good third in the Gander Stakes. Gem Mint Ten broke well and displayed decent early speed before struggling to keep up on the turn. He lost some ground in upper stretch, but was staying on well at the end, suggesting that added ground will benefit him. His sire Laoban can certainly get runners that will go a mile, and he seems like more of a dirt type despite a turf-oriented female family. Ray Handal hasn’t had much success with stretch-outs like this, but he does do well overall with second time starters. I would also use a couple of others at bigger prices. Lucky Lucky Luke (#3) may ultimately be more of a turf horse, as his pedigree suggests that, but he did run deceptively well on debut at Gulfstream, launching a wide, premature move before fading. Wanna Winna (#12) has had more chances at this level, but I think he could appreciate getting back on a fast track after not seeming to handle wet surfaces as well in his last couple of starts. He’s a big, heavy horse who may also benefit from getting gelded.
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                        • Can'tPickAWinner
                          Super Moderator
                          • Nov 2012
                          • 369858

                          #13
                          Aqueduct Hotlist - February 26

                          Feb. 25, 2023

                          By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

                          Hot List Key:
                          A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
                          *C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
                          *D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
                          * - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

                          3rd race [NY, Md 25000, 6F] – (6) The Great Gazoo has had a lot of chances to get his maiden victory but recently they have been against open company and for a higher claiming price. (2) Trevor Bardette has a pair of top three finishes since dropping down to the lowest level for NY-bred maidens. He is projected to get to a clear lead and that is often all that is needed to win one of these races. (7) Reunion Tour has four top three finishes in a row at this level.

                          5th race [NY, Md 40000, 7F] – (1) Lady Banker made her debut last month at this level and might get loose on the lead from the rail post position. (7) Aperol Spritz was fifth in her first start at odds of 2-1 and should move forward from the experience. (5) Ukrainian Princess finished second and third in two starts as she steps up from the $25,000 level. (3) Berning Honor has four starts that were all in maiden special weights where she had two very good finishes on the turf.

                          6th race [Clm 10000, 6
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                          • Can'tPickAWinner
                            Super Moderator
                            • Nov 2012
                            • 369858

                            #14
                            Gulfstream Park Hotlist - February 26

                            Feb. 25, 2023

                            By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

                            Hot List Key:

                            A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
                            *C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
                            *D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
                            * - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

                            3rd race – (9) Never Satisfied (C) dropped from 2-1 to 8-5 and posted a convincing win. Can make it two in a row off the Barboza claim. (7) Gran Andrews closed for second against cheaper but will be dangerous off the Joseph claim. (8) Strasbourg steps up off the Pompay claim and is worth a look. (4) Hey Porter will be a factor in the final furlong. Betting strategy: 9 to win, place. Exacta box: 4-7-8-9. Doubles: 4-7-8-9 with 1-2-3-7.

                            4th race – (1) Fightertown adds blinkers and may respond with an improved performance here. (2) Sgt. Pepper disappointed in his debut but could wake up around two turns. (7) Tshiebwe has enough speed to offset the outside post. (3) Summer Cause just missed at Tampa and will be a main contender here. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2. Exactas 1-2 over 3-7 and 3-7 over 1-2.

                            6th race – (8) Biloxi Blues (A) responded with a strong rally the first time she was stretched out around two turns. Can work out a winning trip here. (7) Just My Own was third in her debut at Tampa Bay and looms as the main rival. (1) Affirmative Lady was third in a stakes and can make her presence felt here. (6) Arrow Bolt was third in her debut and is capable of moving forward here. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-6-7-8. Doubles: 1-6-7-8 with 1-2-7-10.

                            7th race – (1) Telephone Talker had trouble at the start and then raced wide while finishing third. Can rebound with a win here from the rail. (10) Fly the W has won four of his last five starts and shapes up as the one to fear. (7) Conglomerate missed by a half-length last time and should not be ignored here. (2) Momza was a sharp second last time and fits in well here. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-7-10.

                            9th race – (10) Diamond Hands has rested since finishing third at Aqueduct and should benefit from the time off. (5) Mona Stella was second in a state-bred stakes and will be dangerous on her best try. (4) Avow should be well-suited by turf. (7) Regal Realm has some speed and could hang on to the end. Betting strategy: 10 to win, place. Exacta box: 4-5-7-10.
                            No. Name Letter/Last race Today’s race Comment
                            (9) Never Satisfied C, 1/11 3 GP Won easily last time
                            (8) Biloxi Blues A, 1/29 6 GP Improved when stretched out
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                            • Can'tPickAWinner
                              Super Moderator
                              • Nov 2012
                              • 369858

                              #15
                              Racing Dudes Aqueduct Picks

                              Race Pick Odds Trainer Jockey
                              1 #1 Tonight We Love 7-5 C F Martin G Huayas
                              2 #5 Lafitte's Fleet 2-1 R Atras M Franco
                              3 #6 The Great Gazoo 2-1 M E Gorham M Franco
                              4 #5 Viradia 9-5 J S Englehart D Davis
                              5 #7 Aperol Spritz 5-2 K J Breen J A Gomez
                              6 #6 Casalsa 2-1 P R Walder E Cancel
                              7 #3 Truculent 5-2 C Baker J A Torres
                              8 #6 Good Skate 2-1 M J Maker M Franco
                              9 #12 Wanna Winna 8-1 M Nevin F Pennington
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