Service Plays Saturday 3/4/23

[Bugsy]

David Hess' Picks:

5* Mercer vs Furman
GAME: (NCAAB) Mercer vs. Furman 03/04/2023 12:00 PM EST
PICK: Total: 141.50 | -110.00 Under

5* Iowa State vs Baylor
GAME: (NCAAB) Iowa State vs. Baylor 03/04/2023 12:00 PM EST
PICK: Total: 135.00 | -110.00 Under

7* CBB Best Bet: Chicago State vs Fresno State
GAME: (NCAAB) Chicago State vs. Fresno State 03/04/2023 7:00 PM EST
PICK: Total: 130.00 | -110.00 Under

6* San Jose State vs Air Force
GAME: (NCAAB) San Jose State vs. Air Force 03/04/2023 4:00 PM EST
PICK: Total: 129.00 | -109.00 Under

6* Southern Illinois vs Drake
GAME: (NCAAB) Southern Illinois vs. Drake 03/04/2023 6:00 PM EST
PICK: Total: 125.00 | -110.00 Under

6* UC Riverside vs Cal-Poly
GAME: (NCAAB) UC Riverside vs. Cal Poly 03/04/2023 10:00 PM EST
PICK: Total: 127.50 | -110.00 Under

[PokherPlayher]

ANDY LANG

5% UFC MARCH MAYHEM BEST BET
Game: 5% UFC MARCH MAYHEM BEST BET
Date/Time: Mar 4 2023 9:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Valentina Shevchenko ML + Usman ML

This is a future parlay with Shevchenko fighting 4th March and Usman 18th March
We are locking this play in early to get the best lines before people start looking at those future events.

Shevchenko vs Grasso
Quite honestly I think Shevchenko is better than Grasso everywhere. Shevchenko is 12-2 in last 14 with both losses to Bantamweight champ Nunes. She will likely be the bigger fighter in the cage having fought up at Bantamweight and Grasso is a lot smaller and less powerful. I expect Shevchenko to mix in a lot of takedowns and ground control and is so technical and precise I don't see openings for Grasso. Shevchenko was dealing with an ankle/foot injury in her previous matchup and still managed to win. Now being fully healed I expect her to put on a statement and potentially look for the 3rd fight with Amanda. Grasso likes to throw jabs and combinations then get out of range but Shevchenko is not going to let that happen. I also believe Grasso doesn't have the physical strength to take Shevchenko down or keep her down.

Usman vs Edwards
Usman was dominating and coasting to a decision victory before getting caught by Edwards. Usman is so well rounded and his striking has looked better with every fight. His cardio is unquestionable and whilst Edwards has good cardio he struggled to match Usman's pace. Edwards mixed in some wrestling in fight 1 and even though he got a couple mainly through the element of surprise it sapped his gas tank. Usman is great at making adjustments and I expect him to nullify the areas Edwards had success in. Usman can mix in the takedowns as well as the powerful jab mixed with forward pressure. The UK crowd doesn't worry me too much as they are not normally as supportive of Edwards and have booed him in previous fights. Usman will be super focused on righting the wrong and I expect him to dominate again.

*Play is a 5% play up to -170. Then becomes a 4% play. As always, shop around as different shops will have different prices on these fights.

[PokherPlayher]

DWAYNE BRYANT

9-0 ANGLES + #1 ALL-TIME: 5% CBB MAX
Game: (701) Mississippi State at (702) Vanderbilt
Date/Time: Mar 4 2023 8:30 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Under 133.0 (-110)

8:30 PM ET -- College Basketball
701 Mississippi State
702 Vanderbilt
Play: UNDER 133 (-110)
Bet Size: 5%
Line Parameters:
3% play at 132 or better
2% play at 131 or 131.5
1% play at 130 or 130.5
My college hoops totals plays are determined by relevant statistical data from KenPom.com, history involving similar games (researched using the powerful SDQL database), and current market data. A play is made when enough of these factors align. The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.
Additional Trends/Angles/Thoughts:
NOTE: I'm not concerned with sample size. My focus is on current-season data, preferably with a margin of victory of more than two possessions (6 points).
-> UNDER is 3-0 (by 10.7 ppg) in Mississippi State's road games against teams that average 6 or fewer steals per game.
-> UNDER is 3-0 this season (by 12 ppg) when Vanderbilt is a conference home dog against teams that are not ranked #1 or #2 in the conference in Tempo.
-> Mississippi State's conference road games as a favorite averaged just 112.3 total ppg. All 3 would've gone UNDER (by 15.2ppg) if not for the OT against Ole Miss.

[PokherPlayher]

KYLE ANTHONY

• 2 Fight Parlay
  Game: (24809) Geoff Neal at (24810) Shavkat Rakhmonov
  Date/Time: Mar 5 2023 12:05 AM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 2%
  Play: Mateusz Gamrot & Neal/Rakhmonov OVER 1.5 rds parlay (+138)
  
  Parlay play:
  Mateusz Gamrot(-215) & Geoff Neal/Shavkat Rakhmonov OVER 1.5 rounds (-160)
  2% Parlay odds (+138)
  
  
  Released March 3, 2023 10:18 PM EST
  
• Game: (24833) Marc-Andre Barriault at (24834) Julian Marquez
  Date/Time: Mar 5 2023 12:10 AM EST
  Betting Line Provider: DraftKings
  Play Rating: 3%
  Play: Marc-Andre Barriault -130
  
  In a preliminary bout, Marc-Andre Barriault faces Julian Marquez…
  This one could get sweaty but believe we've got a strong betting angle.
  The absolute biggest reasons we're backing Marc-Andre Barriault is basically all metrics and stats highly favor him. Even re-watching both fighters past bouts it's clear Julian Marquez does nothing better than Barriault. Yes, he's a journeymen type of fighter at this point in his career yet he has more tools and technical skills than Marquez. With that said, he's the better boxer, higher volume output striker with better cardio and a strong grinder up against the fence. Add in his durability and Marc-Andre is a tough out for any middle of the road fighter. Enter Julian Marquez whom I don't rate high at all. When you lose to Alessio Di Chirico, a normally automatic W for anyone facing him it's a bad look. Even in victory Julian hasn't displayed much besides a willingness to exchange. In his bout against Maki Pitolo, Marquez lost first 2 rounds by getting controlled until he found a submission late in round 3. Credit to him for pulling it out but just a sloppy sloppy victory. Add in the fact Marquez was just brutally… and I mean BRUTALLY knocked out in round 1 by Gregory Rodrigues in his last fight. A guy who once appeared durable has been getting rocked and dropped in multiple fights and Marc-Andre can crack. No doubt Barriault will pressure from opening bell draining the iffy gas tank of Julian and longer fight goes highly favors Barriault. The type of fighters that's given Marc-Andre trouble were grinding out wrestlers… which isn't a skill Marquez possesses. Since entering the UFC Julian has attempted 5 takedowns and successfully completed zero. While Marc-Andre pushes an incredible pace every single fight with good boxing finding ways to win minutes grinding it out or finishing the fight.
  If fight stays standing I believe Julian gets melted.
  
  3% Play: Marc-Andre Barriault (-130)
  
  
  Released March 1, 2023 10:46 PM EST
  Last Update March 2, 2023 8:12 PM EST
  
• Game: (24845) Jessica Penne at (24846) Tabatha Ricci
  Date/Time: Mar 5 2023 12:30 AM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 1%
  Play: Jessica Penne to win via points +400
  
  
  
  Released March 3, 2023 10:40 PM EST
  
• Game: (24801) Ciryl Gane at (24802) Jon Jones
  Date/Time: Mar 5 2023 1:00 AM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 2%
  Play: Ciryl Gane +140
  
  
  
  Released February 28, 2023 3:22 PM EST
  
• 2 Fight Parlay
  Game: (24805) Alexa Grasso at (24806) Valentina Shevchenko
  Date/Time: Mar 5 2023 2:00 AM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Caesars
  Play Rating: 5%
  Play: Valentina Shevchenko & Dricus Du Plessis Parlay (-140)
  
  ~ MAX PLAY Parlay ~
  Looping Shevchenko with Du Plessis to leverage odds grabbing a much stronger price on Dricus.
  Lets get after it…
  Dricus Du Plessis (-210) vs Derek Brunson:
  Since entering the UFC Dricus Du Plessis is 4-0 with 3 wins coming by way of finish. Full disclosure… I bet heavy on Dricus in all 4 of his UFC fights. Some moneyline wagers and some via inside the distance winners. Reason I point that out is because I believe I've got a strong read on him. What makes Dricus so lethal is his unorthodox style and movement. This unusual motion disguises his attacks making it difficult for opponents to defend. Adding in his knockout power and well rounded skill set is a solid foundation to this rising prospect. Out of his 18 pro wins, 17 come by way of finish. Yup, you heard me… 17 of his 18 victories ended with an unconscious opponent. Out of those 17 finishes, 7 by knockout and 10 by way if submission. Massively impressive stuff truly displaying his comfort level anywhere fight goes backed by athleticism and explosiveness. This blend of talent presents a tough tough tough fight for the wrestling heavy approach of Derek Brunson. This high level BJJ of Dricus could keep Brunson from even utilizing his best weapon. Even if Du Plessis goes to the ground, I'm fully confidant he'll create space or find a way to reverse Derek from top position. Simple takedown attempts could also expose Derek's neck or allow Dricus to sink in a submission. If it plays out on the feet… I think Brunson going to sleep. Extremely hitable with wild looping hooks leaving chin up in the air. The forward blitzing combinations are another layer of unorthodox striking Du Plessis offers and will cause Derek problems all fight.
  Overall I just don't see anywhere Brunson has success. I've been riding with Du Plessis and truly believe he's the next big thing in the division with a win via finish could be incoming.
  
  
  Valentina Shevchenko (-600) vs Alexa Grasso:
  Valentina is one of the worlds top female fighters on the planet. I just don't put Alexa Grasso anywhere near that level nor are the books, Val currently sitting around -600. Reason this is a parlay piece for me is -600 isn't close to high enough. For example Bo Nickel is on this card as well currently sitting around -2000 in his 4th professional fight… that's where the line for Valentina should be. With that said, it's a terrible stylistic match up for Grasso. Yes, she possesses solid boxing and good footwork but anywhere this fight goes Shevchenko will have the advantage and more tools at her disposal. The biggest issue for Grasso is limited power and offensive weapons. Quick hands but lacking pop will allow Val to freely move forward firing off combinations out pacing Alexa with her high level kicking arsenal. Mixing in her fantastic distance management and versatile combinations against Grasso who's more one dimensional on the feet. It'll open windows of opportunity to clinch or even take Grasso down. That leads me to my next point… lack of strength on the Grasso side. Not only does she have limited punching power but she's weak in the clinch where Val's high level clinch/grappling game will provide level changing opportunities. If she can manhandle Andrade ragdolling her multiple times I don't believe there will be much, if any, resistance from Grasso defending takedowns. On the mat, Shevchenko will slice through Grasso's ground game like a hot knife through butter. Add in the fact that not only will Grasso be weaker but she'll physically be the smaller fighter on top of it. It's a spot I believe Val has no issues and runs through Alexa either by finish if she hunts it or dominating 5 rounds.
  
  
  5% MAX PLAY: Dricus Du Plessis & Valentina Shevchenko
  Parlay odds: (-140)
  

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Winners Circle – Saturday Sports Plays

NHL HOCKEY
Play New York Islanders -210 over Detroit
---

BASKETBALL
Play Milwaukee -5.5 over Philadelphia (NBA)

Play Missouri -9.5 over Mississippi (NCAA)
Play Marquette -11.5 over St. John's (NCAA)
Play Baylor -8 over Iowa State (NCAA)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Peabody’s pick
Bradley

We take
Indiana state

[Bugsy]

Duck

Guaranteed Picks
NHL
*
EDM Oilers Vs WIN Jets OVER 6.5 (15k Personal Play)
Straight Picks
NHL
*
WAS Capitals MoneyLine
*
NBA
*
MIL Bucks MoneyLine
WAS Wizards +2.5
Duck Parlay
EDM Oilers Vs WIN Jets OVER 6.5
WAS Capitals MoneyLine
*
Duck Parlay
MIL Bucks MoneyLine
WAS Wizards +2.5

[daddydiego]

Any Daily Capper sightings by chance? Really appreciate all the hard work each day from CPAW, Bugs and Conley! Thank you!

[buzzzkillsucks]

Maddux

NCAA

Marshall

Samford

Oral Roberts

[Meech]

Would greatly appreciate if any member knows what Brandon Lang is playing today? Thank You

Wanna split it ?

[ConleyPicks]

SP Sports Picks
244-212-7 current record

NHL
Avalanche-110 L
Panthers-125 W
Oilers-140 and Oilers/Jets Under +110 L L
Flames-145 L

NBA
Cavaliers-14.5 W
Bucks-5.5 L

NCAAB
South Carolina PK W
Manhattan-2 L
Kansas State+4.5 L
North Carolina-3.5 L
Mississippi State+2.5 L

XFL LOL
Vegas+3 L

3-10 day 247-222-7 current record